Moist heat stress extremes in India enhanced by irrigation

Im, E. S., Pal, J. S. & Eltahir, E. A. B. Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia. Sci. Adv. 3, e1603322 (2017).

Article  Google Scholar 

Mazdiyasni, O. et al. Increasing probability of mortality during Indian heat waves. Sci. Adv. 3, 1–6 (2017).

Article  Google Scholar 

Mishra, V., Mukherjee, S., Kumar, R. & Stone, D. A. Heat wave exposure in India in current, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C worlds. Environ. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9388 (2017).

Coffel, E. D., Horton, R. M. & de Sherbinin, A. Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 014001 (2017).

Article  Google Scholar 

King, A. D. et al. Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 3438–3443 (2016).

Article  Google Scholar 

Knutson, T. R. & Ploshay, J. J. Detection of anthropogenic influence on a summertime heat stress index. Clim. Change 138, 25–39 (2016).

Article  Google Scholar 

Matthews, T. K. R., Wilby, R. L. & Murphy, C. Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 3861–3866 (2017).

Article  Google Scholar 

Kjellstrom, T. et al. Heat, human performance, and occupational health: a key issue for the assessment of global climate change impacts. Annu. Rev. Public Health 37, 97–112 (2016).

Article  Google Scholar 

Sherwood, S. C. How important is humidity in heat stress? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 123, 11808–11810 (2018).

Article  Google Scholar 

Horton, R. M., Mankin, J. S., Lesk, C., Coffel, E. & Raymond, C. A review of recent advances in research on extreme heat events. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 2, 242–259 (2016).

Article  Google Scholar 

Buzan, J. R., Oleson, K. & Huber, M. Implementation and comparison of a suite of heat stress metrics within the Community Land Model version 4.5. Geosci. Model Dev. 8, 151–170 (2015).

Article  Google Scholar 

Kang, S. & Eltahir, E. A. B. North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation. Nat. Commun. 9, 2894 (2018).

Article  Google Scholar 

Shankar, P. V., Kulkarni, H. & Krishnan, S. India’s groundwater challenge and the way forward. Econ. Political Wkly 46, 37–45 (2011).

Google Scholar 

Amarasinghe, U. A., Shah, T. & Anand, B. K. India’s water supply and demand from 2025-2050: business-as-usual scenario and issues. In Proc. Workshop on Analyses of Hydrological, Social and Ecological Issues of the National River Linking Project (eds Amarasinghe, U. A. & Sharma, B. R.) 23–61 (IWMI, 2007).

Ambika, A. K., Wardlow, B. & Mishra, V. Remotely sensed high resolution irrigated area mapping in India for 2000 to 2015. Sci. Data 3, 160118 (2016).

Article  Google Scholar 

Cook, B. I., Puma, M. J. & Krakauer, N. Y. Irrigation induced surface cooling in the context of modern and increased greenhouse gas forcing. Clim. Dyn. 37, 1587–1600 (2011).

Article  Google Scholar 

Thiery, W. et al. Present-day irrigation mitigates heat extremes. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 122, 1403–1422 (2017).

Article  Google Scholar 

Boucher, O., Myhre, G. & Myhre, A. Direct human influence of irrigation on atmospheric water vapour and climate. Clim. Dyn. 22, 597–603 (2004).

Article  Google Scholar 

Lobell, D. et al. Regional differences in the influence of irrigation on climate. J. Clim. 22, 2248–2255 (2009).

Article  Google Scholar 

Kumar, R. et al. Dominant control of agriculture and irrigation on urban heat island in India. Sci. Rep. 7, 14054 (2017).

Article  Google Scholar 

Mueller, N. D. et al. Cooling of US Midwest summer temperature extremes from cropland intensification. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 317–322 (2015).

Article  Google Scholar 

Asoka, A., Gleeson, T., Wada, Y. & Mishra, V. Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India. Nat. Geosci. 10, 109–117 (2017).

Article  Google Scholar 

Azhar, G. S. et al. Heat-related mortality in India: excess all-cause mortality associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad heat wave. PLoS ONE 9, e91831 (2014).

Article  Google Scholar 

Marcella, M. P. & Eltahir, E. A. B. Introducing an irrigation scheme to a regional climate model: a case study over West Africa. J. Clim. 27, 5708–5723 (2014).

Article  Google Scholar 

Puma, M. J. & Cook, B. I. Effects of irrigation on global climate during the 20th century. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 115, D16120 (2010).

Article  Google Scholar 

Willett, K. M. & Sherwood, S. Exceedance of heat index thresholds for 15 regions under a warming climate using the wet-bulb globe temperature. Int. J. Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2257 (2012).

Sherwood, S. C. & Huber, M. An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 9552–9555 (2010).

Article  Google Scholar 

Byrne, M. P. & O’Gorman, P. A. Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 4863–4868 (2018).

Article  Google Scholar 

Willett, K. M., Gillett, N. P., Jones, P. D. & Thorne, P. W. Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence. Nature 449, 710–712 (2007).

Article  Google Scholar 

Bollasina, M. & Nigam, S. The summertime ‘heat’ low over Pakistan/northwestern India: evolution and origin. Clim. Dyn. 37, 957–970 (2011).

Article  Google Scholar 

Gentine, P., Holtslag, A. A. M., D’Andrea, F. & Ek, M. Surface and atmospheric controls on the onset of moist convection over land. J. Hydrometeorol. 14, 1443–1462 (2013).

Article  Google Scholar 

Kang, S. & Eltahir, E. A. B. Impact of irrigation on regional climate over eastern China. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 5499–5505 (2019).

Article  Google Scholar 

Kueppers, L. M., Snyder, M. A. & Sloan, L. C. Irrigation cooling effect: regional climate forcing by land-use change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L03703 (2007).

Article  Google Scholar 

Alter, R. E., Im, E. S. & Eltahir, E. A. B. Rainfall consistently enhanced around the Gezira Scheme in East Africa due to irrigation. Nat. Geosci. 8, 763–767 (2015).

Article  Google Scholar 

Im, E. S. & Kang, S. & Eltahir, E. A. B. Projections of rising heat stress over the western Maritime Continent from dynamically downscaled climate simulations. Glob. Planet. Change https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.02.01 (2018).

Sacks, W. J., Cook, B. I., Buenning, N., Levis, S. & Helkowski, J. H. Effects of global irrigation on the near-surface climate. Clim. Dyn. 33, 159–175 (2009).

Article  Google Scholar 

Dileepkumar, R., Achutarao, K. & Arulalan, T. Human influence on sub-regional surface air temperature change over India. Sci. Rep. 8, 8967 (2018).

Article  Google Scholar 

Seneviratne, S. I. et al. Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation. Nat. Geosci. 11, 88–96 (2018).

Article  Google Scholar 

Sharma, A. et al. Green and cool roofs to mitigate urban heat island effects in the Chicago metropolitan area: evaluation with a regional climate model. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 064004 (2016).

Article  Google Scholar 

Georgescu, M., Moustaoui, M., Mahalov, A. & Dudhia, J. An alternative explanation of the semiarid urban area ‘oasis effect’. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016720 (2011).

Zipper, S. C., Schatz, J., Kucharik, C. J. & Loheide, S. P. Urban heat island-induced increases in evapotranspirative demand. Geophys. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072190 (2017).

Siebert, S., Henrich, V., Frenken, K. & Burke, J. Update of the Digital Global Map of Irrigation Areas to Version 5 (FAO, 2013); https://doi.org/10.13140/2.1.2660.6728

Mann, H. B. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13, 245–259 (1945).

Article  Google Scholar 

Sen, P. K. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 63, 1379–1389 (1968).

Article  Google Scholar 

Srivastava, A. K., Rajeevan, M. & Kshirsagar, S. R. Development of a high resolution daily gridded temperature data set (1969–2005) for the Indian region. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 10, 249–254.

Dee, D. P. et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553–597 (2011).

Article  Google Scholar 

Haldane, J. S. The influence of high air temperatures No. I. J. Hyg. (Lond.) 5, 494–513 (1905).

Google Scholar 

Davies-Jones, R. An efficient and accurate method for computing the wet-bulb temperature along pseudoadiabats. Mon. Weather Rev. 136, 2764–2785 (2008).

Article  Google Scholar 

Steadman, R. G. The assessment of sultriness. Part I. A temperature–humidity index based on human physiology and clothing science. J. Appl. Meteorol. 18, 861–873 (1979).

Article  Google Scholar 

Brooke Anderson, G., Bell, M. L. & Peng, R. D. Methods to calculate the heat index as an exposure metric in environmental health research. Environ. Health Perspect. 121, 1111–1119 (2013).

Article  Google Scholar 

Skamarock, C. et al. A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Model Version 4 (NCAR, 2019); https://doi.org/10.5065/1DFH-6P97

Mitchell, K. et al. Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) User’s Guide (NCAR, 2005).

Iacono, M. J. Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: calculations with the AER radiative transfer models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944 (2008).

Janzic, Z. I. The step-mountain eta coordinate model: further developments of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulence closure schemes. Mon. Weather Rev. 122, 927–945 (1994).

Article  Google Scholar 

Kain, J. S. & Kain, J. The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: an update. J. Appl. Meteorol. 43, 170–181 (2004).

Article  Google Scholar 

Qian, Y., Huang, M., Yang, B. & Berg, L. K. A modeling study of irrigation effects on surface fluxes and land–air–cloud interactions in the Southern Great Plains. J. Hydrometeorol. 14, 700–721 (2013).

Article  Google Scholar 

Siebert, S. et al. Development and validation of the global map of irrigation areas. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 9, 535–547 (2005).

Article  Google Scholar 

Rienecker, M. M. et al. MERRA: NASA’s modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. J. Clim. 24, 3624–3648 (2011).

Article  Google Scholar 

Durre, I. & Yin, X. Enhanced radiosonde data for studies of vertical structure. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 89, 1257–1262 (2008).

Article  Google Scholar 

Seidel, D. J., Ao, C. O. & Li, K. Estimating climatological planetary boundary layer heights from radiosonde observations: comparison of methods and uncertainty analysis. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 115, D16113 (2010).

Article  Google Scholar 

Basha, G. & Ratnam, M. V. Identification of atmospheric boundary layer height over a tropical station using high-resolution radiosonde refractivity profiles: comparison with GPS radio occupation measurements. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 114, D161010 (2009).

Article  Google Scholar