IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, 2013).
Dunne, J. P. et al. GFDL’s ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon earth system models. Part II: Carbon system formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. J. Clim. 26, 2247–2267 (2013).
Google Scholar
Jiang, L.-Q., Carter, B. R., Feely, R. A., Lauvset, S. K. & Olsen, A. Surface ocean pH and buffer capacity: Past, present and future. Nat. Sci. Rep. 9, 18624 (2019).
Google Scholar
Caldeira, K. & Wickett, M. E. Oceanography: Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH. Nature 425, 365–365 (2003).
Google Scholar
Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 318, 1737–1742 (2007).
Google Scholar
Hönisch, B. et al. The geological record of ocean acidification. Science 335, 1058–1063 (2012).
Google Scholar
Williams, J. W., Jackson, S. T. & Kutzbach, J. E. Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 104, 5738–5742 (2007).
Google Scholar
Williams, J. W. & Jackson, S. T. Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. Front. Ecol. Environ. 5, 475–482 (2007).
Google Scholar
Radeloff, V. C. et al. The rise of novelty in ecosystems. Ecol. Appl. 25, 2051–2068 (2015).
Google Scholar
Sunday, J. M., Bates, A. E. & Dulvy, N. K. Thermal tolerance and the global redistribution of animals. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 686–690 (2012).
Google Scholar
Pinsky, M. L., Worm, B., Fogarty, M. J., Sarmiento, J. L. & Levin, S. A. Marine taxa track local climate velocities. Science 341, 1239–1242 (2013).
Google Scholar
Pinsky, M. L., Selden, R. L. & Kitchel, Z. J. Climate-driven shifts in marine species ranges: Scaling from organisms to communities. Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci. 12, 153–179 (2020).
Google Scholar
Bell, G. & Collins, S. Adaptation, extinction and global change. Evol. Appl. 1, 3–16 (2008).
Google Scholar
Lancaster, L. T., Morrison, G. & Fitt, R. N. Life history trade-offs, the intensity of competition, and coexistence in novel and evolving communities under climate change. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 372, 20160046 (2017).
Google Scholar
Henson, S. A. et al. Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems. Nat. Commun. 8, 14682 (2017).
Google Scholar
Bruno, J. F. et al. Climate change threatens the world’s marine protected areas. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 499–503 (2018).
Google Scholar
Turk, D. et al. Time of emergence of surface ocean carbon dioxide trends in the North American coastal margins in support of ocean acidification observing system design. Front. Mar. Sci. 6, 91 (2019).
Google Scholar
Jiang, L.-Q. et al. Climatological distribution of aragonite saturation state in the global oceans. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 29, 1656–1673 (2015).
Google Scholar
Orr, J. C. et al. Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437, 681–686 (2005).
Google Scholar
Feely, R. A., Doney, S. C. & Cooley, S. R. Ocean acidification: Present conditions and future changes in a high-CO2 world. Oceanography 22, 36–47 (2009).
Google Scholar
Tittensor, D. P. et al. Global patterns and predictors of marine biodiversity across taxa. Nature 466, 1098–1101 (2010).
Google Scholar
Allen, A. P., Brown, J. H. & Gillooly, J. F. Global biodiversity, biochemical kinetics, and the energetic-equivalence rule. Science 297, 1545–1548 (2002).
Google Scholar
Donner, S. D. Coping with commitment: Projected thermal stress on coral reefs under different future scenarios. PLoS ONE 4, e5712 (2009).
Google Scholar
Walsh, P. J. & Louise Milligan, C. Coordination of metabolism and intracellular acid–base status: Ionic regulation and metabolic consequences. Can. J. Zool. 67, 2994–3004 (1989).
Google Scholar
Nilsson, G. E. et al. Near-future carbon dioxide levels alter fish behaviour by interfering with neurotransmitter function. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 201–204 (2012).
Google Scholar
Clark, T. D. et al. Ocean acidification does not impair the behaviour of coral reef fishes. Nature 577, 370–375 (2020).
Google Scholar
Waldbusser, G. G. et al. A developmental and energetic basis linking larval oyster shell formation to acidification sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 2171–2176 (2013).
Google Scholar
Waldbusser, G. G. et al. Saturation-state sensitivity of marine bivalve larvae to ocean acidification. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 273–280 (2015).
Google Scholar
Dunne, J. P. et al. GFDL’s ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon earth system models. Part I: Physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. J. Clim. 25, 6646–6665 (2012).
Google Scholar
Mahony, C. R., Cannon, A. J., Wang, T. & Aitken, S. N. A closer look at novel climates: New methods and insights at continental to landscape scales. Glob. Change Biol. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13645 (2017).
Google Scholar
Millar, R. J. et al. Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Nat. Geosci. 10, 741–747 (2017).
Google Scholar
Sanderson, B. M., O’Neill, B. C. & Tebaldi, C. What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 7133–7142 (2016).
Google Scholar
Friedlingstein, P. et al. Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets. Nat. Geosci. 7, 709–715 (2014).
Google Scholar
Steele, J. H., Brink, K. H. & Scott, B. E. Comparison of marine and terrestrial ecosystems: Suggestions of an evolutionary perspective influenced by environmental variation. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 76, 50–59 (2019).
Google Scholar
Munday, P. L., Warner, R. R., Monro, K., Pandolfi, J. M. & Marshall, D. J. Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea. Ecol. Lett. 16, 1488–1500 (2013).
Google Scholar
Kelly, M. W. & Hofmann, G. E. Adaptation and the physiology of ocean acidification. Funct. Ecol. 27, 980–990 (2013).
Google Scholar
Sunday, J. M. et al. Evolution in an acidifying ocean. Trends Ecol. Evol. 29, 117–125 (2014).
Google Scholar
Pinsky, M. L., Eikeset, A. M., McCauley, D. J., Payne, J. L. & Sunday, J. M. Greater vulnerability to warming of marine versus terrestrial ectotherms. Nature 569, 108–111 (2019).
Google Scholar
Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world’s coral reefs. Mar. Freshw. Res. 50, 839–866 (1999).
Donelson, J. M., Salinas, S., Munday, P. L. & Shama, L. N. S. Transgenerational plasticity and climate change experiments: Where do we go from here?. Glob. Change Biol. 24, 13–34 (2018).
Google Scholar
Ross, P. M., Parker, L. & Byrne, M. Transgenerational responses of molluscs and echinoderms to changing ocean conditions. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 73, 537–549 (2016).
Google Scholar
Eirin-Lopez, J. M. & Putnam, H. M. Marine environmental epigenetics. Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci. 11, 335–368 (2019).
Google Scholar
Baumann, H. & Smith, E. M. Quantifying metabolically driven pH and oxygen fluctuations in US nearshore habitats at diel to interannual time scales. Estuaries Coasts 41, 1102–1117 (2018).
Google Scholar
Chan, F. et al. Persistent spatial structuring of coastal ocean acidification in the California Current System. Sci. Rep. 7, 1–7 (2017).
Google Scholar
Steinacher, M. et al. Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: A multi-model analysis. Biogeosciences 7, 27 (2010).
Google Scholar
Gruber, N. Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: Ocean biogeochemistry under global change. Philos. Trans. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 369, 1980–1996 (2011).
Google Scholar
Wang, D., Gouhier, T. C., Menge, B. A. & Ganguly, A. R. Intensification and spatial homogenization of coastal upwelling under climate change. Nature 518, 390–394 (2015).
Google Scholar
Bakun, A. Global climate change and intensification of coastal ocean upwelling. Science 247, 198–201 (1990).
Google Scholar
Bopp, L. et al. Potential impact of climate change on marine export production. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 15, 81–99 (2001).
Google Scholar
Doney, S. C. et al. Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci. 4, 11–37 (2012).
Google Scholar
Vaquer-Sunyer, R. & Duarte, C. M. Thresholds of hypoxia for marine biodiversity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 105, 15452–15457 (2008).
Google Scholar
Curry, R., Dickson, B. & Yashayaev, I. A change in the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades. Nature 426, 826–829 (2003).
Google Scholar
Briggs, J. C. Marine centres of origin as evolutionary engines. J. Biogeogr. 30, 1–18 (2003).
Google Scholar
Bowen, B. W., Rocha, L. A., Toonen, R. J., Karl, S. A. & ToBo Laboratory. The origins of tropical marine biodiversity. Trends Ecol. Evol. 28, 359–366 (2013).
Google Scholar
Burke, L. M., Reytar, K., Spalding, M. & Perry, A. Reefs at Risk Revisited in the Coral Triangle (World Resources Institute, 2012).
Boyd, P. W., Lennartz, S. T., Glover, D. M. & Doney, S. C. Biological ramifications of climate-change-mediated oceanic multi-stressors. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 71 (2014).
Google Scholar
Hoegh-Guldberg, O. & Bruno, J. F. The impact of climate change on the world’s marine ecosystems. Science 328, 1523–1528 (2010).
Google Scholar
Bakker, D. C. E. et al. A multi-decade record of high-quality fCO2 data in version 3 of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT). Earth Syst. Sci. Data 8, 383–413 (2016).
Google Scholar
Lauvset, S. K. et al. A new global interior ocean mapped climatology: The 1 × 1 GLODAP version 2. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 8, 325–340 (2016).
Google Scholar
Carter, B. R. et al. Updated methods for global locally interpolated estimation of alkalinity, pH, and nitrate. Limnol. Oceanogr. Methods 16, 119–131 (2017).
Google Scholar
Lueker, T. J., Dickson, A. G. & Keeling, C. D. Ocean pCO2 calculated from dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and equations for K1 and K2: Validation based on laboratory measurements of CO2 in gas and seawater at equilibrium. Mar. Chem. 70, 105–119 (2000).
Google Scholar
Dickson, A. G. Standard potential of the reaction: AgCl (s) + 12H2 (g) = Ag (s) + HCl (aq), and and the standard acidity constant of the ion HSO4− in synthetic sea water from 273.15 to 318.15 K. J. Chem. Thermodyn. 22, 113–127 (1990).
Google Scholar
Perez, F. F. & Fraga, F. Association constant of fluoride and hydrogen ions in seawater. Mar. Chem. 21, 161–168 (1987).
Google Scholar
Uppström, L. R. The boron/chlorinity ratio of deep-sea water from the Pacific Ocean. Deep Sea Res. Oceanogr. Abstr. 21, 161–162 (1974).
Google Scholar
van Heuven, S. et al. MATLAB Program Developed for CO2 System Calculations (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2011). https://doi.org/10.3334/cdiac/otg.co2sys_matlab_v1.1
Google Scholar
Lewis, E., Wallace, D. & Allison, L. J. Program Developed for CO2 System Calculations (ORNL/CDIAC-105, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U. S. Department of Energy, 1998). https://doi.org/10.2172/639712
Orr, J. C., Epitalon, J.-M., Dickson, A. G. & Gattuso, J.-P. Routine uncertainty propagation for the marine carbon dioxide system. Mar. Chem. 207, 84–107 (2018).
Google Scholar
IPCC. Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014).
NOAA. Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST.v5) (National Centers for Environmental Information, 2017). www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst
Takahashi, T. et al. Climatological distributions of pH, pCO2, total CO2, alkalinity, and CaCO3 saturation in the global surface ocean, and temporal changes at selected locations. Mar. Chem. 164, 95–125 (2014).
Google Scholar
Locarnini, R. A. et al. World Ocean Atlas 2013, Volume 1: Temperature (NOAA Atlas NESDIS 73, 2013).
Barth, A., Beckers, J.-M., Troupin, C., Alvera-Azcárate, A. & Vandenbulcke, L. Divand-1.0: n-dimensional variational data analysis for ocean observations. Geosci. Model Dev. 7, 225–241 (2014).
Google Scholar
HOTS, station ALOHA. HOTS (Hawaii Ocean Time Series), station ALOHA. http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/hot-dogs/bextraction.html (2018).
UNH_CML. CML (University of New Hampshire Coastal Marine Laboratory), Salisbury, J. UNH CML Station—Coastal Marine Laboratory. http://www.neracoos.org/erddap/tabledap/UNH_CML.html (2019).
BBH. BBH (Boothbay Harbor) Sea Water Temperature Record in Maine. https://www.maine.gov/dmr/science-research/weather-tides/bbhenv.html (2019).
Sutton, A. J. et al. High-Resolution Ocean and Atmosphere pCO2 Time-Series Measurements from Mooring NH_70W_43N (NCEI Accession 0115402). (NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Centers for Environmental Information, 2014). https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/archive/arc0062/0115402/8.8/data/0-data/
Source: Ecology - nature.com
