Abstract
Many Pacific Small Island Developing States are vulnerable to Tropical Cyclones (TCs) leading to an estimated average annual loss of USD 1.08 billion. The study quantifies the impacts of tropical cyclones on tree cover and associated ecosystem services, beginning with coastal protection and the loss of carbon, for inclusion in Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNAs), Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), catastrophe risk insurance payments and loss and damage accounting. The study focuses on the impacts of tree cover loss resulting from four separate category five tropical cyclones in Fiji and Vanuatu: Pam, Harold, Winston and Yasa. Compared to national average annual tree cover losses between 2000 and 2023, TCs Pam and Harold increased tree cover loss 4.6 and 5.2-fold in Vanuatu and TCs Winston and Yasa increased tree cover loss 3.6 and 3.1-fold in Fiji, respectively. The resulting loss of carbon storage adds an estimated 23.4–25.0% in economic losses based on IPCC Tier II emissions factors and 37.2% for IPCC Tier I emissions factors to the Vanuatu and Fiji PDNA economic loss estimates, respectively. The focus on carbon emissions is a first step towards a quantification of the loss of ecosystem services in countries whose people depend on natural resources for daily subsistence. The study makes a case for inclusion of environmental damage in both PDNA and loss and damage estimates to justify additional financial investments in disaster recovery.
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Data availability
All data supporting the findings of this analysis are freely available within the analysis and its supplementary information as well as via the GitHub repository: [https://github.com/nicholasmetherall/tropical-cyclone-impact-analysis]. These data may be used if cited appropriately. The workflows were all undertaken through open access and open-source software and reproducible programming environments. https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/tropical-cyclone-tree-cover-loss-github-repo_tar_gz/28759697.
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Acknowledgements
Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainability Development (PaCE) at the University of the South Pacific: Dr Hilda Sakiti Waqa, Dr Awnesh Singh, Mrs Harmindar Kaur. The Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University: Dr Bruce Doran and from the Statistics Unit (ANU) Mrs Alice Richardson. The Pacific Community (SPC): the Geoscience Energy and Maritime Division, Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS): Dr Brian Killough. Department of Environment and Conservation and the Department of Forestry of Vanuatu as well as the Ministry of Forestry-Silviculture and Research of Fiji. Dr Michelle Sims, Dr Nancy Harris and Professor Matthew Hansen from the World Resources Institute whose work and advice inspired and guided this study.
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N.M. and E.H. conceived of the study. N.M., E.H., M.T. and S.B. designed the study. C.L. undertook the synthesis of TC information for Vanuatu. S.N. undertook the synthesis of TC information for Fiji. M.T. and E.H. provided guidance about the main tropical cyclone parameters to include in the analysis. N.M. collated the GFW and IBTrACS data together for analysis and developed the code base for these workflows to be replicated. M.T., C.L. and S.N. reviewed the code base. N.M. and E.H. produced the results and figures, wrote the original draft of the paper and responded to reviewers’ comments. All authors helped with interpretation of the data and contributed to reviewing and editing the paper.
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Metherall, N., Holland, E., Tu’uholoaki, M. et al. The impact of tropical cyclones Pam, Harold, Winston and Yasa on tree cover loss in Vanuatu and Fiji.
Sci Rep (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-29437-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-29437-w
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