
Schofield, O. et al. How do polar marine ecosystems respond to rapid climate change? Science 328, 1520–1523 (2010).
Vaughan, D. G. et al. Recent rapid regional climate warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. Clim. Change 60, 243–274 (2003).
Klinck, J. M., Hofmann, E. E., Beardsley, R. C., Salihoglu, B. & Howard, S. Water-mass properties and circulation on the west Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf in austral fall and winter 2001. Deep Sea Res. Pt II 51, 1925–1946 (2004).
Prézelin, B. B., Hofmann, E. E., Mengelt, C. & Klinck, J. M. The linkage between upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW) and phytoplankton assemblages on the west Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf. J. Mar. Res. 58, 165–202 (2000).
Atkinson, A., Siegel, V., Pakhomov, E. & Rothery, P. Long-term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern Ocean. Nature 432, 100–103 (2004).
Hofmann, E. E. & Hüsrevoglu, Y. S. A circumpolar modeling study of habitat control of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) reproductive success. Deep Sea Res. Pt II 50, 3121–3142 (2003).
Ducklow, H. W. et al. Marine pelagic ecosystems: the west Antarctic Peninsula. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 362, 67–94 (2007).
Croxall, J. P. Southern Ocean environmental changes: effects on seabird, seal and whale populations. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 338, 119–127 (1992).
Hinke, J. T. et al. Spatial and isotopic niche partitioning during winter in chinstrap and Adélie penguins from the South Shetland Islands. Ecosphere 6, 1–32 (2015).
Forcada, J. et al. Responses of Antarctic pack-ice seals to environmental change and increasing krill fishing. Biol. Conserv. 149, 40–50 (2012).
Hückstädt, L. et al. Diet of a specialist in a changing environment: the crabeater seal along the western Antarctic Peninsula. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 455, 287–301 (2012).
Hazen, E. L. et al. Marine top predators as climate and ecosystem sentinels. Front. Ecol. Environ. 17, 565–574 (2019).
Staniland, I., Boyd, I. & Reid, K. An energy–distance trade-off in a central-place forager, the Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella). Mar. Biol. 152, 233–241 (2007).
Pitman, R. L. & Ensor, P. Three forms of killer whales (Orcinus orca) in Antarctic waters. J. Cetac. Res. Manage. 5, 131–140 (2003).
Burns, J. M., Hindell, M. A., Bradshaw, C. J. A. & Costa, D. P. Fine-scale habitat selection of crabeater seals as determined by diving behavior. Deep Sea Res. Pt II 55, 500–514 (2008).
Friedlaender, A. S. et al. Ecological niche modeling of sympatric krill predators around Marguerite Bay, western Antarctic Peninsula. Deep Sea Res. Pt II 58, 1729–1740 (2011).
Bengtson, J. L. & Stewart, B. S. Diving and haulout behavior of crabeater seals in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, during March 1986. Polar Biol. 12, 635–644 (1992).
Atkinson, A. et al. KRILLBASE: a circumpolar database of Antarctic krill and salp numerical densities, 1926–2016. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 9, 193–210 (2017).
Reiss, C. S. et al. Overwinter habitat selection by Antarctic krill under varying sea-ice conditions: implications for top predators and fishery management. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 568, 1–16 (2017).
Lawson, G. L., Wiebe, P. H., Ashjian, C. J. & Stanton, T. K. Euphausiid distribution along the western Antarctic Peninsula—part B: distribution of euphausiid aggregations and biomass, and associations with environmental features. Deep Sea Res. Pt II 55, 432–454 (2008).
Lascara, C. M., Hofmann, E. E., Ross, R. M. & Quetin, L. B. Seasonal variability in the distribution of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, west of the Antarctic Peninsula. Deep Sea Res. Pt I 46, 951–984 (1999).
Piñones, A. & Fedorov, A. V. Projected changes of Antarctic krill habitat by the end of the 21st century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 8580–8589 (2016).
Piñones, A., Hofmann, E. E., Daly, K. L., Dinniman, M. S. & Klinck, J. M. Modeling environmental controls on the transport and fate of early life stages of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) on the western Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf. Deep Sea Res. Pt I 82, 17–31 (2013).
Dinniman, M. S., Klinck, J. M. & Hofmann, E. E. Sensitivity of Circumpolar Deep Water transport and ice shelf basal melt along the West Antarctic Peninsula to changes in the winds. J. Clim. 25, 4799–4816 (2012).
Stephens D. W. & Krebs J. R. Foraging Theory (Princeton Univ. Press, 1986).
Curtis, C., Stewart, B. S. & Karl, S. A. Pleistocene population expansions of Antarctic seals. Mol. Ecol. 18, 2112–2121 (2009).
Bortolotto, E., Bucklin, A., Mezzavilla, M., Zane, L. & Patarnello, T. Gone with the currents: lack of genetic differentiation at the circum-continental scale in the Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. BMC Genet. 12, 32 (2011).
Nachtsheim, D. A., Jerosch, K., Hagen, W., Plötz, J. & Bornemann, H. Habitat modelling of crabeater seals (Lobodon carcinophaga) in the Weddell Sea using the multivariate approach Maxent. Polar Biol. 40, 961–976 (2017).
Davis, C. S., Stirling, I., Strobeck, C. & Coltman, D. W. Population structure of ice‐breeding seals. Mol. Ecol. 17, 3078–3094 (2008).
Flores, H. et al. Impact of climate change on Antarctic krill. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 458, 1–19 (2012).
Trivelpiece, W. Z. et al. Variability in krill biomass links harvesting and climate warming to penguin population changes in Antarctica. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 7625–7628 (2011).
Chapman, E. W., Hofmann, E. E., Patterson, D. L. & Fraser, W. R. The effects of variability in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) spawning behavior and sex/maturity stage distribution on Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) chick growth: a modeling study. Deep Sea Res. Pt II 57, 543–558 (2010).
Hofmann, E. E., Wiebe, P. H., Costa, D. P. & Torres, J. J. An overview of the Southern Ocean Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics program. Deep Sea Res. Pt II 51, 1921–1924 (2004).
Costa, D. P. et al. Approaches to studying climatic change and its role on the habitat selection of Antarctic pinnipeds. Integr. Comp. Biol. 50, 1018–1030 (2010).
Burns, J. M. et al. Winter habitat use and foraging behavior of crabeater seals along the western Antarctic Peninsula. Deep Sea Res. Pt II 51, 2279–2303 (2004).
Grimwood, B. G., Plummer, T. H. Jr. & Tarentino, A. L. Purification and characterization of a neutral zinc endopeptidase secreted by Flavobacterium meningosepticum. Arch. Biochem. Biophys. 311, 127–132 (1994).
Fedak, M. A., Lovell, P. & Grant, S. M. Two approaches to compressing and interpreting time–depth information as collected by time–depth recorders and satellite-linked data recorders. Mar. Mammal Sci. 17, 94–110 (2001).
Patterson, T. A., McConnell, B. J., Fedak, M. A., Bravington, M. V. & Hindell, M. A. Using GPS data to evaluate the accuracy of state–space methods for correction of Argos satellite telemetry error. Ecology 91, 273–285 (2010).
Jonsen, I. D., Flemming, J. M. & Myers, R. A. Robust state–space modeling of animal movement data. Ecology 86, 2874–2880 (2005).
McConnell, B. J., Fedak, M. A., Hooker, S. & Patterson, T. in Marine Mammal Ecology and Conservation (eds Boyd, I. L., Bowen, W. D. & Iverson, S. J.) 450 (Oxford Univ. Press, 2010).
Bovet, P. & Benhamou, S. Spatial analysis of animals’ movements using a correlated random walk model. J. Theor. Biol. 131, 419–433 (1988).
Byers, J. A. Correlated random walk equations of animal dispersal resolved by simulation. Ecology 82, 1680–1690 (2001).
Kareiva, P. M. & Shigesada, N. Analyzing insect movement as a correlated random walk. Oecologia 56, 234–238 (1983).
Bergman, C. M., Schaefer, J. A. & Luttich, S. N. Caribou movement as a correlated random walk. Oecologia 123, 364–374 (2000).
Dinniman, M. S., Klinck, J. M. & Smith, W. O. A model study of Circumpolar Deep Water on the west Antarctic Peninsula and Ross Sea continental shelves. Deep Sea Res. Pt II 58, 1508–1523 (2011).
Meredith, M. et al. in Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) 203–320 (IPCC, 2019).
Meredith, M. P. & King, J. C. Rapid climate change in the ocean west of the Antarctic Peninsula during the second half of the 20th century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L19604 (2005).
Turner, J. et al. Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 279–294 (2005).
Stammerjohn, S. E., Martinson, D. G., Smith, R. C. & Iannuzzi, R. A. Sea ice in the western Antarctic Peninsula region: spatio-temporal variability from ecological and climate change perspectives. Deep Sea Res. Pt II 55, 2041–2058 (2008).
Stammerjohn, S. E., Martinson, D. G., Smith, R. C., Yuan, X. & Rind, D. Trends in Antarctic annual sea ice retreat and advance and their relation to El Nino–Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode variability. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 113, C03S90 (2008).
Marshall, G. J. Trends in the Southern Annular Mode from observations and reanalyses. J. Clim. 16, 4134–4143 (2003).
Abram, N. J. et al. Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 564–569 (2014).
Lubin, D., Wittenmyer, R. A., Bromwich, D. H. & Marshall, G. J. Antarctic Peninsula mesoscale cyclone variability and climatic impacts influenced by the SAM. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L02808 (2008).
Turner, J. et al. Antarctic climate change and the environment: an update. Polar Record 50, 237–259 (2014).
Jacobs, S. Observations of change in the Southern Ocean. Phil. Trans. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 364, 1657–1681 (2006).
IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 1567–1612 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
Spence, P. et al. Rapid subsurface warming and circulation changes of Antarctic coastal waters by poleward shifting winds. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 4601–4610 (2014).
Aarts, G., MacKenzie, M., McConnell, B., Fedak, M. & Matthiopoulos, J. Estimating space-use and habitat preference from wildlife telemetry data. Ecography 31, 140–160 (2008).
Raymond, B. et al. Important marine habitat off east Antarctica revealed by two decades of multi-species predator tracking. Ecography 38, 121–129 (2015).
Elith, J., Leathwick, J. R. & Hastie, T. A working guide to boosted regression trees. J. Anim. Ecol. 77, 802–813 (2008).
R Core Development Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2018).
Aarts, G., Fieberg, J. & Matthiopoulos, J. Comparative interpretation of count, presence–absence and point methods for species distribution models. Methods Ecol. Evol. 3, 177–187 (2012).
Wood, S. Package ‘mgcv’. R package version 1.8-31 (2019).
Ripley, B., Venables, B., Bates, D. M., Hornik, K., Gebhardt, A. & Firth, D. MASS: Support functions and datasets for Venables and Ripley’s MASS. R package version 7.3-51.5 (2019).
Ropert-Coudert, Y. et al. Standardized data from the Retrospective Analysis of Antarctic Tracking Data project from the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (Australian Antarctic Division Data Centre, 2019); https://doi.org/10.4225/15/5afcb927e8162
Source: Ecology - nature.com