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These attempts to downplay the biodiversity crisis follow the ‘Scientific Certainty Argumentation Methods’ playbook, which includes all three categories of denial envisioned by Stanley Cohen in a framework first applied to the study of atrocities and other unwelcome truths4. These are: (1) ‘Literal denial’, an assertion that something is untrue, for example the evidence for greatly elevated rates of species threat and extinction; (2) ‘Interpretive denial’, in which raw facts are not disputed but given a different spin, for example using evidence from temperate ecosystems to make claims about reduced impacts in the tropics; (3) ‘Implicatory denial’, in which data are not denied, but implications are, for example arguing that transformative changes to socio–ecological systems are not required to avert species extinctions.
We address each of these in detail, before exploring ways to counter erroneous claims and logical fallacies that we understand to be ‘extinction denialism’ or ‘biodiversity loss denialism’.
Literal denial: ‘Species extinctions were predominantly a historical problem’
Extinction deniers often downplay the extinction crisis by framing it as a historical problem and a trivial contemporary challenge (Supplementary Table 1). By focusing attention on the loss of megafauna in prehistory owing to overhunting and rapid loss of island biodiversity in historic times, it is suggested we have passed through these extinction filters and reached the ‘other side’ of the crisis. This ‘literal denial’ line of argument misses several key facets of the extinction crisis, notably that species, including island endemics, are still being lost5 and that the catastrophic loss, degradation and fragmentation of whole ecosystems, combined with climate change, is triggering a new episode of continental extinctions6. This is particularly acute in the highly biodiverse tropics and where extinctions are just the endpoint of a long process of extirpation and defaunation7 (Box 1, Supplementary Table 2). Moreover, biologists are typically conservative in declaring possible extinctions, and across the world there are 143 amphibians, 41 reptiles, 29 mammals and 22 bird species classed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species (https://www.iucnredlist.org) as ‘Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)’. Many of these species are likely already gone, while many more, including the 75 species listed as ‘Extinct in the Wild’, are only hanging on due to expensive, last resort, conservation interventions8.

Box 1 Examples of species and systems misrepresented by extinction denialists

Literal denial: for example, underestimating and overlooking recent extinctions.
The Atlantic Rainforest has been long touted by deniers as an example of a biome that had lost 90% of its habitat without a single documented extinction. Yet the Alagoas foliage-gleaner (Philydor novaesi) (a) and the cryptic treehunter (Cichlocolaptes mazarbarnetti) were confirmed as extinct in 2019, each only ever known from two forest fragments, and seven other species have not been seen for a decade or are down to the last few individuals (Supplementary Table 2). Extinction deniers downplaying the relatively small number of documented extinctions are wrong for the same reasons as those who sought to downplay the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in early 2020. Just as the true number of cases was underestimated because of the widespread lack of testing, the true number of extinctions is far higher than those observed, because the majority of the Earth’s species have not even been described — especially the rarer and more specialized species, which are most vulnerable. And, as with the initially unthinkable predictions of epidemiologists, conservation scientists are beginning to see their grim predictions of extinction debt borne out.
Interpretive denial: for example, resurgent carnivores are not umbrella species for all taxa.
The resurgence of the Eurasian brown bear (Ursus arctos arctos) (b), grey wolf (Canis lupus), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and their prey base in Europe reflects land abandonment and rural depopulation associated with globalization and mechanization of agricultural production systems but should not be interpreted as a recovery of biodiversity more widely. These population recoveries have come alongside losses in farm income and rural employment. Other factors include reduced human–wildlife conflict and better legislative protection. Large mammals are typically habitat generalists and their recolonization of managed habitats like European forests has not been accompanied by a resurgence of habitat specialists. Old growth forest dependent white-backed woodpeckers (Dendrocopos leucotos), for example, remain on the cusp of extinction even in heavily forested Scandinavia. The saproxylic beetles they rely upon are associated with ancient trees and natural large-scale fire regimes with long return times and are consequently extremely rare or extinct in Europe’s managed forests.
Implicatory denial: for example, misrepresenting land sparing as a silver bullet for conservation.
Vast soy bean (Glycine max) fields (c) at the ecotone of the Amazon and Cerrado biomes in Brazil. Land sparing — minimizing the land area of agriculture while protecting and restoring as large an area of native vegetation as possible — may well be a useful strategy to reduce extinctions associated with habitat loss. Various studies have confirmed that protection of large areas of native vegetation will be essential for the conservation of the many specialized and threatened species that inhabit the tropics17. However, agricultural intensification alone is no guarantee that land will be spared for nature, and if it increases profits, there is a risk that this will encourage further deforestation. Furthermore, not all methods for increasing yields are equal. There is a need to minimize negative environmental externalities, make sure that key ecosystem services are still provided at landscape scales, and ensure that intensification does not simply result in the increased demand that characterizes the great acceleration. Land uses that incorporate people, such as indigenous reserves, are among the most effective at conserving forest cover, and are an essential complement to strictly protected areas.

Credit: Ciro Albano (a); Richard Moores (b); Alexander C. Lees (c).

Interpretive denial: ‘Economic growth alone will fix the extinction crisis’
Extinction denialists often invoke an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)9 response of biodiversity to development (Supplementary Table 1), arguing that pressures on the environment eventually decrease with rising income levels. Yet the EKC hypothesis is misleading in this context. First, empirical evidence of the relationship between economic development and forest cover only supports the loss part of the curve10. Second, the EKC is typically a local rather than a global phenomenon, and global environmental indicators of indirect impacts such as CO2 emissions, waste production and energy consumption are still increasing monotonically. Country-specific assessments of EKC often ignore the outsourcing of environmental degradation to poorer countries. Denialists also highlight the resurgence of certain large charismatic species such as wolves and bears in Europe and North America as evidence that we are through the worst of the extinction crisis. However, this is only a partial success story (Box 1). Similar successes in the tropics are highly unlikely: species richness, species packing and habitat and niche specialization are all far higher at tropical latitudes, while geographic range sizes are much smaller. These factors mean that tropical biodiversity is far more extinction-prone then temperate biodiversity11. The unfortunate truth is that there are many imminent or actual extinctions in highly deforested tropical regions (Supplementary Table 2). Finally, the so-called ‘Forest Transition’ model9, which envisages an EKC-style relationship between forest cover and development, fails to differentiate between native forests and monoculture plantations of oil palm, conifers and eucalyptus, despite the expansion of plantations being an important cause of biodiversity loss. Many global forest models are not sensitive to the difference12 and conflating plantations with natural forests has long been a key feature of the denialist playbook.
Implicatory denial: ‘Technological fixes and targeted conservation interventions will overcome extinction’
Extinction denialists are often selective, choosing to highlight only a subset of factors causing contemporary extinctions, such as overharvesting and predation by non-native species, while choosing not to mention habitat loss that affects the majority of species on the Red List. They then suggest that solutions are simple, requiring no change or business-as-usual actions, even though it is increasing resource demands and current socio–ecological and economic modes of organization that imperil biodiversity globally7. Invasive species, overharvesting and pathogens are undoubtedly major conservation issues responsible for global extinctions of many — particularly insular — species, and technological fixes form part of the portfolio of conservation interventions. However, these threats are often exacerbated by habitat loss and climate change, and all must be addressed together. A disproportionate focus on a subset of drivers is a form of implicatory denial that is contrary to scientific consensus: recognizing the importance of one set of threats does not obviate the need to address others8. Another form of implicatory denial involves the misrepresentation of the land sharing/sparing concept (Box 1). More

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James Bradley of Queen Mary University of London, UK, and colleagues, modelled the global degradation of OC in marine sediments deposited during the Quaternary and calculated the amount of energy subseafloor microbes use. Three different microbial metabolisms were considered — aerobic respiration, sulfate reduction and methanogenesis. 0.171 Pg C yr-1 of OC degradation was linked to sulfate reduction (64.5% of global Quaternary OC degraded), with another 0.076 C yr-1 (28.6%) associated with methanogenesis. Although aerobic respiration degraded only 0.018 Pg C yr-1 (6.9% of OC), it provided 54.5% (20.3 GW) of the power (energy flux) to the subseafloor. Sulfate reduction and methanogensis provided 39.1% (14.6 GW) and 6.4% (2.4 GW) of global subseafloor power, respectively. When these values were scaled on an individual cell basis, the average amount of power used per microbe was two orders of magnitude less than the lowest experimentally-based estimates of the minimum power required to sustain life. This result suggests that in situ microbial power requirements are much lower than previously thought. More

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