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Climate-driven habitat shifts And niche overlap of overexploited trees Cordia africana Lam. and Terminalia brownii Fresen in Ethiopia

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Abstract

Cordia africana and Terminalia brownii, indigenous Ethiopian multipurpose trees of high ecological and socioeconomic value, are increasingly threatened by overexploitation and climate change. Understanding how climatic and anthropogenic factors shape their distribution is critical for sustainable management and conservation. This study identified key environmental drivers, predicted suitable habitats under current and future climates, and assessed shifts in distribution, geographic range, and niche overlap. Future climate projections were assessed under two scenarios: the medium-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) and the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), for two time horizons: the 2050s and 2070s. An ensemble modeling framework was applied using seven algorithms: boosted regression trees, random forest, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, maximum entropy, support vector machine, and multivariate adaptive regression splines. Each model was run with ten sub-sampled replicates. We evaluated model performance using the area under the curve (AUC) for C. africana (0.84) and T. brownii (0.82), and the true skill statistic (TSS), which was 0.60 for both species. Predicted suitable habitat for C. africana (20.1%) was concentrated in the western, central, and southwestern regions, while T. brownii (19.9%) was mainly distributed in the northern, eastern, and southeastern lowlands. Under future climate scenarios, suitable areas are projected to decline sharply, shrinking to 8.68% and 2.07% of Ethiopia’s land area, respectively, by the 2070s. Suitable habitats for both species are expected to contract, with potential refugia for C. africana shifting toward highland areas. Geographic and environmental overlap between the two species was minimal. Given their multipurpose use, increasing vulnerability, and limited niche and geographic overlap, our results show that the projected habitat contraction, the marked decline of T. brownii within its natural range, and the upslope shift of C. africana refugia require species-specific conservation actions. C. africana needs refugia protection and climate-adapted management, while T. brownii requires targeted measures to support its long-term viability. Conservation efforts should focus on safeguarding existing habitats, regulating harvesting, strengthening community-based forest management, and maintaining ecological connectivity. Both species will also require stricter control of human use under future climate change.

Data availability

The data supporting the findings of this study are available in the supplementary material.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management for providing research facilities and the herbarium expert for identifying the specimen and facilitating access to the herbarium specimens used in this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Daniel Melese

  2. Department of Biology, Mizan Tepi University, Tepi, Ethiopia

    Daniel Melese, Muluye Asnakew & Ashebir Awoke

  3. Dessie Tissue Culture Center, Dessie, Ethiopia

    Atnafu Tesfaw

  4. Mekdela Amba University, Tuluawulia, Ethiopia

    Yibeltal Meslie

  5. Department of Biology, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia

    Yibelu Yitayih Hailie

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  1. Daniel Melese
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Contributions

D.M. was involved in data collection, compilation, methodology, modeling, analyzing the output, and drafting the manuscript. M.A., A.A., A.T., Y.M., and Y.Y. contributed to data collection and manuscript writing. We would like to clarify that the work presented here is original research that has not previously been published and is not under consideration for publication elsewhere, in whole or in part. All authors participated in revising and approved the final manuscript.

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Daniel Melese.

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Melese, D., Asnakew, M., Awoke, A. et al. Climate-driven habitat shifts And niche overlap of overexploited trees Cordia africana Lam. and Terminalia brownii Fresen in Ethiopia.
Sci Rep (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-33743-8

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Keywords

  • Anthropogenic
  • Conservation
  • Ensemble model
  • Multipurpose trees

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