Parmesan, C. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 37, 637–669 (2006).
Elahi, R. et al. Recent trends in local-scale marine biodiversity reflect community structure and human impacts. Curr. Biol. 25, 1938–1943 (2015).
Google Scholar
Harley, C. D. G. Climate change, keystone predation, and biodiversity loss. Science 334, 1124–1127 (2011).
Google Scholar
Poloczanska, E. S. et al. Global imprint of climate change on marine life. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 919–925 (2013).
Google Scholar
Bellwood, D. R., Hughes, T. P., Folke, C. & Nyström, M. Confronting the coral reef crisis. Nature 429, 827–833 (2004).
Google Scholar
Moreno-Mateos, D. et al. Anthropogenic ecosystem disturbance and the recovery debt. Nat. Commun. 8, 14163 (2017).
Google Scholar
Newman, E. A. Disturbance ecology in the Anthropocene. Front. Ecol. Evol. 7, 147 (2019).
Mittelbach, G. G. et al. What is the observed relationship between species richness and productivity?. Ecology 82, 2381–2396 (2001).
van Nes, E. H. & Scheffer, M. Implications of spatial heterogeneity for catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems. Ecology 86, 1797–1807 (2005).
Tylianakis, J. M. et al. Resource heterogeneity moderates the biodiversity-function relationship in real world ecosystems. Plos Biol. 6, e122 (2008).
Loreau, M. et al. In Metacommunities: Spatial Dynamics and Ecological Communities (eds Holyoak, M. et al.) (The University of Chicago Press, 2005).
Loreau, M. From Populations to Ecosystems (Princeton University Press, 2010). https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400834167.vii.
Google Scholar
Moreira, E. F., Boscolo, D. & Viana, B. F. Spatial heterogeneity regulates plant-pollinator networks across multiple landscape scales. PLoS ONE 10, e0123628 (2015).
Costanza, J. K., Moody, A. & Peet, R. K. Multi-scale environmental heterogeneity as a predictor of plant species richness. Landsc. Ecol. 26, 851–864 (2011).
Hughes, T. P. et al. Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages. Nature 556, 492–496 (2018).
Google Scholar
Nyström, M., Graham, N. A. J., Lokrantz, J. & Norström, A. V. Capturing the cornerstones of coral reef resilience: Linking theory to practice. Coral Reefs 27, 795–809 (2008).
Google Scholar
Virah-Sawmy, M., Gillson, L. & Willis, K. J. How does spatial heterogeneity influence resilience to climatic changes? Ecological dynamics in southeast Madagascar. Ecol. Monogr. 79, 557–574 (2009).
Wilson, D. S. Complex interactions in metacommunities, with implications for biodiversity and higher levels of selection. Ecology 73, 1984–2000 (1992).
Leibold, M. A. et al. The metacommunity concept: A framework for multi-scale community ecology. Ecol. Lett. 7, 601–613 (2004).
Briggs, C. J. & Hoopes, M. F. Stabilizing effects in spatial parasitoid–host and predator–prey models: A review. Theor. Popul. Biol. 65, 299–315 (2004).
Google Scholar
Wang, S., Haegeman, B. & Loreau, M. Dispersal and metapopulation stability. PeerJ 3, e1295 (2015).
Tilman, D. The ecological consequences of changes in biodiversity: A search for general principles. Ecology 80, 1455–1474 (1999).
Loreau, M., Mouquet, N. & Gonzalez, A. Biodiversity as spatial insurance in heterogeneous landscapes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 100, 12765–12770 (2003).
Google Scholar
Yachi, S. & Loreau, M. Biodiversity and ecosystem productivity in a fluctuating environment: The insurance hypothesis. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 96, 1463–1468 (1999).
Google Scholar
Bouvier, T. et al. Contrasted effects of diversity and immigration on ecological insurance in marine bacterioplankton communities. PLoS ONE 7, e37620 (2012).
Google Scholar
Hammond, M., Loreau, M., Mazancourt, C. & Kolasa, J. Disentangling local, metapopulation, and cross-community sources of stabilization and asynchrony in metacommunities. Ecosphere 11, e03078 (2020).
Lamy, T., Legendre, P., Chancerelle, Y., Siu, G. & Claudet, J. Understanding the spatio-temporal response of coral reef fish communities to natural disturbances: Insights from beta-diversity decomposition. PLoS ONE 10, e0138696 (2015).
Lamy, T. et al. Species insurance trumps spatial insurance in stabilizing biomass of a marine macroalgal metacommunity. Ecology 100, e02719 (2019).
Stier, A. C., Shelton, A. O., Samhouri, J. F., Feist, B. E. & Levin, P. S. Fishing, environment, and the erosion of a population portfolio. Ecosphere https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3283 (2020).
Google Scholar
Burgess, S. C. et al. Beyond connectivity: How empirical methods can quantify population persistence to improve marine protected-area design. Ecol. Appl. 24, 257–270 (2014).
Saenz-Agudelo, P., Jones, G. P., Thorrold, S. R. & Planes, S. Connectivity dominates larval replenishment in a coastal reef fish metapopulation. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 278, 2954–2961 (2011).
Wood, S., Paris, C. B., Ridgwell, A. & Hendy, E. J. Modelling dispersal and connectivity of broadcast spawning corals at the global scale. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 23, 1–11 (2014).
Loreau, M. et al. Biodiversity as insurance: From concept to measurement and application. Biol. Rev. https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12756 (2021).
Google Scholar
Thibaut, L. M. & Connolly, S. R. Understanding diversity–stability relationships: Towards a unified model of portfolio effects. Ecol. Lett. 16, 140–150 (2013).
Wilcox, K. R. et al. Asynchrony among local communities stabilises ecosystem function of metacommunities. Ecol. Lett. 20, 1534–1545 (2017).
Loreau, M. & de Mazancourt, C. Species synchrony and its drivers: Neutral and nonneutral community dynamics in fluctuating environments. Am. Nat. 172, E48–E66 (2008).
Loreau, M. & Mazancourt, C. Biodiversity and ecosystem stability: A synthesis of underlying mechanisms. Ecol. Lett. 16, 106–115 (2013).
Gross, K. et al. Species richness and the temporal stability of biomass production: A new analysis of recent biodiversity experiments. Am. Nat. 183, 1–12 (2014).
Sullaway, G. H., Shelton, A. O. & Samhouri, J. F. Synchrony erodes spatial portfolios of an anadromous fish and alters availability for resource users. J. Anim. Ecol. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13575 (2021).
Google Scholar
Adjeroud, M., Augustin, D., Galzin, R. & Salvat, B. Natural disturbances and interannual variability of coral reef communities on the outer slope of Tiahura (Moorea, French Polynesia): 1991 to 1997. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 237, 121–131 (2002).
Google Scholar
Adjeroud, M. et al. Recurrent disturbances, recovery trajectories, and resilience of coral assemblages on a South Central Pacific reef. Coral Reefs 28, 775–780 (2009).
Google Scholar
Pratchett, M. S., Trapon, M., Berumen, M. L. & Chong-Seng, K. Recent Disturbances Augment Community Shifts in Coral Assemblages in Moorea, French Polynesia (SpringerLink, 2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-010-0678-2.
Google Scholar
Kayal, M. et al. Predator crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster planci) outbreak, mass mortality of corals, and cascading effects on reef fish and benthic communities. PLoS ONE 7, e47363 (2012).
Google Scholar
McWilliam, M., Pratchett, M. S., Hoogenboom, M. O. & Hughes, T. P. Deficits in functional trait diversity following recovery on coral reefs. Proc. R. Soc. B 287, 20192628 (2020).
Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 318, 1737–1742 (2007).
Google Scholar
Penin, L., Adjeroud, M., Schrimm, M. & Lenihan, H. S. High spatial variability in coral bleaching around Moorea (French Polynesia): Patterns across locations and water depths. C. R. Biol. 330, 171–181 (2007).
Adam, T. C. et al. Herbivory, connectivity, and ecosystem resilience: Response of a coral reef to a large-scale perturbation. PLoS ONE 6, e23717 (2011).
Google Scholar
Edmunds, P. et al. Why more comparative approaches are required in time-series analyses of coral reef ecosystems. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 608, 297–306 (2019).
Google Scholar
Pérez-Rosales, G. et al. Documenting decadal disturbance dynamics reveals archipelago-specific recovery and compositional change on Polynesian reefs. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 170, 112659 (2021).
Bruno, J. F. & Selig, E. R. Regional decline of coral cover in the Indo-Pacific: Timing, extent, and subregional comparisons. PLoS ONE 2, e711 (2007).
Google Scholar
Jackson, J. B. C. et al. Status and trends of Caribbean coral reefs. Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, IUCN, Gland, Switzerland (2014)
Edmunds, P. J. Implications of high rates of sexual recruitment in driving rapid reef recovery in Mo’orea, French Polynesia. Sci. Rep. 8, 16615 (2018).
Google Scholar
Burgess, S. C., Johnston, E. C., Wyatt, A. S. J., Leichter, J. J. & Edmunds, P. J. Response diversity in corals: Hidden differences in bleaching mortality among cryptic Pocillopora species. Ecology https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.3324 (2021).
Google Scholar
Holbrook, S. J. et al. Recruitment drives spatial variation in recovery rates of resilient coral reefs. Sci. Rep. 8, 7338 (2018).
Google Scholar
Guest, J. R. et al. A framework for identifying and characterising coral reef “oases” against a backdrop of degradation. J. Appl. Ecol. 55, 2865–2875 (2018).
Hench, J. L., Leichter, J. J. & Monismith, S. G. Episodic circulation and exchange in a wave-driven coral reef and lagoon system. Limnol. Oceanogr. 53, 2681–2694 (2008).
Google Scholar
Barry, J. P. & Dayton, P. K. Ecological heterogeneity. Ecol. Stud. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-3062-5_14 (1991).
Google Scholar
Edmunds, P. & Bruno, J. The importance of sampling scale in ecology: Kilometer-wide variation in coral reef communities. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 143, 165–171 (1996).
Google Scholar
Lough, J. M., Anderson, K. D. & Hughes, T. P. Increasing thermal stress for tropical coral reefs: 1871–2017. Sci. Rep. 8, 6079 (2018).
Google Scholar
van Oppen, M. J. H. & Lough, J. M. Coral bleaching, patterns, processes, causes and consequences. Ecol. Stud. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75393-5_14 (2018).
Google Scholar
Monismith, S. G. Hydrodynamics of coral reefs. Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech. 39, 37–55 (2007).
Google Scholar
Edmunds P. Of Moorea Coral Reef LTER. MCR LTER: Coral Reef: Long-term Population and Community Dynamics: Corals, ongoing since 2005. knb-lter-mcr.4.33 https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/1f05f1f52a2759dc096da9c24e88b1e8 (2020).
Cowles, J. et al. Resilience: insights from the U.S. Long-term ecological research network. Ecosphere 12, e03434 (2021).
Beijbom, O. et al. Towards automated annotation of benthic survey images: Variability of human experts and operational modes of automation. PLoS ONE 10, e0130312 (2015).
Veron, J. E. N. Corals of the world, v. 1–3. Australian Institute of Marine Science (2000)
Washburn, L of Moorea Coral Reef LTER. MCR LTER: Coral Reef: Ocean Currents and Biogeochemistry: salinity, temperature and current at CTD and ADCP mooring FOR01 from 2004 ongoing. knb-lter-mcr.30.36doi:10.6073/pasta/124d19950c5234bf1937661989dcced7 (2021).
Safaie, A. et al. High frequency temperature variability reduces the risk of coral bleaching. Nat. Commun. 9, 1671 (2018).
Google Scholar
Dean, R. G. & Dalrymple, R. A. Water Wave Mechanics for Engineers and Scientists. Advanced Series on Ocean Engineering Vol. 2 (World Scientific, 1991).
Carroll, A., Harrison, P. & Adjeroud, M. Sexual reproduction of Acropora reef corals at Moorea, French Polynesia. Coral Reefs 25, 93–97 (2006).
Google Scholar
Han, X., Adam, T. C., Schmitt, R. J., Brooks, A. J. & Holbrook, S. J. Response of herbivore functional groups to sequential perturbations in Moorea, French Polynesia. Coral Reefs 35, 999–1009 (2016).
Google Scholar
Clarke, K. R. Non-parametric multivariate analyses of changes in community structure. Austral Ecol. 18, 117–143 (1993).
Clarke, K. R., Somerfield, P. J. & Chapman, M. G. On resemblance measures for ecological studies, including taxonomic dissimilarities and a zero-adjusted Bray–Curtis coefficient for denuded assemblages. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 330, 55–80 (2006).
RStudio Team. RStudio: Integrated development for R. RStudio, PBC, Boston, MA URL http://www.rstudio.com/ (2021).
Oksanen J. et al. vegan: Community ecology package. R package version 2.5–7. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=vegan (2020).
Wickham, et al. Welcome to the Tidyverse. J. Open Source Softw. 4(43), 1686. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01686 (2019).
Google Scholar
Corlett, R. T. The Anthropocene concept in ecology and conservation. Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 36–41 (2015).
Williams, G. J. et al. Coral reef ecology in the Anthropocene. Funct. Ecol. 33, 1014–1022 (2019).
Walther, G.-R. et al. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416, 389–395 (2002).
Google Scholar
Walther, G.-R. Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 365, 2019–2024 (2010).
Cinner, J. E. et al. Bright spots among the world’s coral reefs. Nature 535, 416–419 (2016).
Google Scholar
Grman, E., Lau, J. A., Schoolmaster, D. R. & Gross, K. L. Mechanisms contributing to stability in ecosystem function depend on the environmental context. Ecol. Lett. 13, 1400–1410 (2010).
Schindler, D. E. et al. Population diversity and the portfolio effect in an exploited species. Nature 465, 609–612 (2010).
Google Scholar
Doak, D. F. et al. The statistical inevitability of stability-diversity relationships in community ecology. Am. Nat. 151, 264–276 (1998).
Google Scholar
Isbell, F. I., Polley, H. W. & Wilsey, B. J. Biodiversity, productivity and the temporal stability of productivity: Patterns and processes. Ecol. Lett. 12, 443–451 (2009).
Connell, J. H. Diversity in tropical rain forests and coral reefs author. Science 199, 1302–1310 (1978).
Google Scholar
Plaisance, L., Caley, M. J., Brainard, R. E. & Knowlton, N. The diversity of coral reefs: What are we missing?. PLoS ONE 6, e25026 (2011).
Google Scholar
Williams, G. J. et al. Biophysical drivers of coral trophic depth zonation. Mar. Biol. 165, 60 (2018).
Moritz, C. et al. Long-term monitoring of benthic communities reveals spatial determinants of disturbance and recovery dynamics on coral reefs. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 672, 141–152 (2021).
Google Scholar
Dietzel, A. et al. The spatial footprint and patchiness of large scale disturbances on coral reefs. Global Change Biol. 27, 4825–4838 (2021).
Google Scholar
Leichter, J. et al. Biological and physical interactions on a tropical island coral reef: Transport and retention processes on Moorea, French Polynesia. Oceanography 26, 52–63 (2011).
Porter, J. W. et al. Population trends among Jamaican reef corals. Nature 294, 249–250 (1981).
Google Scholar
Graham, N. A. J., Jennings, S., MacNeil, M. A., Mouillot, D. & Wilson, S. K. Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs. Nature 518, 94–97 (2015).
Google Scholar
Whittaker, R. H. & Levin, S. A. The role of mosaic phenomena in natural communities. Theor. Popul. Biol. 12, 117–139 (1977).
Google Scholar
Karlson, R. H. & Hurd, L. E. Disturbance, coral reef communities, and changing ecological paradigms. Coral Reefs 12, 117–125 (1993).
Google Scholar
Stoddart, D. R. Effects of Hurricane Hattie on the British Honduras reefs and cays, October 30–31, 1961. Atoll Res. Bull. 95, 1–142 (1963).
Witman, J. D. Physical disturbance and community structure of exposed and protected reefs: A case study from St. John U.S. Virgin Islands. Integr. Comp. Biol. 32, 641–654 (1992).
Thorson, J. T., Scheuerell, M. D., Olden, J. D. & Schindler, D. E. Spatial heterogeneity contributes more to portfolio effects than species variability in bottom-associated marine fishes. Proc. R. Soc. B 285, 20180915 (2018).
Mellin, C., MacNeil, M. A., Cheal, A. J., Emslie, M. J. & Caley, M. J. Marine protected areas increase resilience among coral reef communities. Ecol. Lett. 19, 629–637 (2016).
Beyer, H. L. et al. Risk-sensitive planning for conserving coral reefs under rapid climate change. Conserv. Lett. 11, e12587 (2018).
Harrison, H. B., Bode, M., Williamson, D. H., Berumen, M. L. & Jones, G. P. A connectivity portfolio effect stabilizes marine reserve performance. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 117, 25595–25600 (2020).
Google Scholar
Walter, J. A. et al. The spatial synchrony of species richness and its relationship to ecosystem stability. Ecology https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.3486 (2021).
Google Scholar
Wang, S., Lamy, T., Hallett, L. M. & Loreau, M. Stability and synchrony across ecological hierarchies in heterogeneous metacommunities: Linking theory to data. Ecography 42, 1200–1211 (2019).
Catano, C. P., Fristoe, T. S., LaManna, J. A. & Myers, J. A. Local species diversity, β-diversity and climate influence the regional stability of bird biomass across North America. Proc. R. Soc. B 287, 20192520 (2020).
Roscher, C. et al. Identifying population- and community-level mechanisms of diversity–stability relationships in experimental grasslands. J. Ecol. 99, 1460–1469 (2011).
Downing, A. L., Brown, B. L. & Leibold, M. A. Multiple diversity–stability mechanisms enhance population and community stability in aquatic food webs. Ecology 95, 173–184 (2014).
Moran, P. The statistical analysis of the Canadian Lynx cycle. Aust. J. Zool. 1, 291–298 (1953).
Townsend, D. L. & Gouhier, T. C. Spatial and interspecific differences in recruitment decouple synchrony and stability in trophic metacommunities. Theor. Ecol. 12, 319–327 (2019).
Yeager, M. E., Gouhier, T. C. & Hughes, A. R. Predicting the stability of multitrophic communities in a variable world. Ecology 101, e02992 (2020).
Hughes, T. P. et al. Emergent properties in the responses of tropical corals to recurrent climate extremes. Curr. Biol. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2021.10.046 (2021).
Google Scholar
Jackson, J. B. C. Morphological strategies of sessile animals. In Biology and Systematics of Colonial Organisms (eds Larwood, G. & Rosen, B. R.) 499–555 (Academic, 1979).
Sammarco, P. W. & Andrews, J. C. Localized dispersal and recruitment in Great Barrier Reef Corals: The helix experiment. Science 239, 1422–1424 (1988).
Google Scholar
Edmunds, P. J. Unusually high coral recruitment during the 2016 El Niño in Mo’orea, French Polynesia. PLoS ONE 12, e0185167 (2017).
Bull, G. Distribution and abundance of coral plankton. Coral Reefs 4, 197–200 (1986).
Google Scholar
Hodgson, G. Abundance and distribution of planktonic coral larvae in Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 26, 61–71 (1985).
Google Scholar
Edmunds, P. J. Vital rates of small reef corals are associated with variation in climate. Limnol. Oceanogr. 66, 901–913 (2021).
Google Scholar
Source: Ecology - nature.com
