Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets

Immerzeel, W. W. et al. Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers. Nature 577, 364–369 (2020).

CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

Tian, L. et al. Stable isotopic variations in west China: a consideration of moisture sources. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D10112 (2007).

Google Scholar 

Schiemann, R., Lüthi, D. & Schär, C. Seasonality and interannual variability of the westerly jet in the Tibetan Plateau region. J. Clim. 22, 2940–2957 (2009).

Article  Google Scholar 

Yao, T. et al. A review of climatic controls on δ¹⁸O in precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau: observations and simulations. Rev. Geophys. 51, 525–548 (2013).

Article  Google Scholar 

Huss, M. & Hock, R. Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 135–140 (2018).

Article  Google Scholar 

Shea, J. M. & Immerzeel, W. W. An assessment of basin-scale glaciological and hydrological sensitivities in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya. Ann. Glaciol. 57, 308–318 (2016).

Article  Google Scholar 

Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Bierkens, M. F. P., Lutz, A. F. & Immerzeel, W. W. Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia’s glaciers. Nature 549, 257–260 (2017).

CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

Immerzeel, W. W., Van, B. L. P. & Bierkens, M. F. Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Science 328, 1382–1385 (2010).

CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

Bookhagen, B. & Burbank, D. W. Toward a complete Himalayan hydrological budget: spatiotemporal distribution of snowmelt and rainfall and their impact on river discharge. J. Geophys. Res. F 115, F03019 (2010).

Google Scholar 

Mukhopadhyay, B. & Khan, A. A reevaluation of the snowmelt and glacial melt in river flows within upper Indus basin and its significance in a changing climate. J. Hydrol. 527, 119–132 (2015).

Article  Google Scholar 

Yao, T. et al. Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan plateau and surroundings. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 663–667 (2012).

Article  Google Scholar 

Yang, K. et al. Response of hydrological cycle to recent climate changes in the Tibetan plateau. Climatic Change 109, 517–534 (2011).

Article  Google Scholar 

Yang, W., Guo, X., Yao, T., Zhu, M. & Wang, Y. Recent accelerating mass loss of southeast Tibetan glaciers and the relationship with changes in macroscale atmospheric circulations. Clim. Dynam. 47, 805–815 (2016).

Article  Google Scholar 

Cuo, L., Zhang, Y., Zhu, F. & Liang, L. Characteristics and changes of streamflow on the Tibetan Plateau: a review. J. Hydrol. 2, 49–68 (2014).

Google Scholar 

Wang, Y. et al. Contrasting runoff trends between dry and wet parts of eastern Tibetan Plateau. Sci. Rep. 7, 15458 (2017).

Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Shrestha, A. B. & Bierkens, M. F. P. Consistent increase in high Asia’s runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 587–592 (2014).

Article  Google Scholar 

Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Kraaijenbrink, P. D., Shrestha, A. B. & Bierkens, M. F. Climate change impacts on the upper Indus hydrology: sources, shifts and extremes. PLoS ONE 11, e0165630 (2016).

CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

Immerzeel, W. W. & Bierkens, M. F. P. Asia’s water balance. Nat. Geosci. 5, 841–842 (2012).

CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

Pepin, N. et al. Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 424–430 (2015).

Article  Google Scholar 

Turner, A. G. & Annamalai, H. Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 587–595 (2012).

Article  Google Scholar 

Schott, F. A. & McCreary Jr, J. P. The monsoon circulation of the Indian Ocean. Prog. Oceanogr. 51, 1–123 (2001).

Article  Google Scholar 

Gao, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Risi, C., He, Y. & Yao, T. What controls precipitation δ¹⁸O in the southern Tibetan Plateau at seasonal and intra-seasonal scales? A case study at Lhasa and Nyalam. Tellus B 65, 21043–21055 (2013).

Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Zhang, L., Su, F., Yang, D., Hao, Z. & Tong, K. Discharge regime and simulation for the upstream of major rivers over Tibetan Plateau. J. Geophys. Res. D 118, 8500–8518 (2013).

Article  Google Scholar 

Immerzeel, W. W., Droogers, P., De Jong, S. M. & Bierkens, M. F. P. Large-scale monitoring of snow cover and runoff simulation in Himalayan river basins using remote sensing. Remote Sens. Environ. 113, 40–49 (2009).

Article  Google Scholar 

Kääb, A., Berthier, E., Nuth, C., Gardelle, J. & Arnaud, Y. Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas. Nature 488, 495–498 (2012).

Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

Falkenmark, et al. On the Verge of a New Water Scarcity: A Call for Good Governance and Human Ingenuity (Stockholm International Water Institute, 2007).

Pritchard, H. D. Asia’s shrinking glaciers protect large populations from drought stress. Nature 569, 649–654 (2019).

CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

Falkenmark, M. Meeting water requirements of an expanding world population. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 352, 929–936 (1997).

Article  Google Scholar 

Jones, B. & O’Neill, B. C. Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 084003 (2016).

Article  Google Scholar 

Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).

Article  Google Scholar 

O’Neill, B. C. et al. The scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482 (2016).

Article  Google Scholar 

Van Vuuren, D. P. et al. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change 109, 5–31 (2011).

Article  Google Scholar 

Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 90, 1095–1107 (2009).

Article  Google Scholar 

Anav, A. et al. Evaluating the land and ocean components of the global carbon cycle in the CMIP5 earth system models. J. Clim. 26, 6801–6843 (2013).

Article  Google Scholar 

Navarro, R. C. et al. High-resolution and bias-corrected CMIP5 projections for climate change impact assessments. Sci. Data 7, 1–14 (2020).

Google Scholar 

Seager, R., Naik, N. & Vecchi, G. A. Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J. Clim. 23, 4651–4668 (2010).

Article  Google Scholar 

Tibshirani, R. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58, 267–288 (1996).

Google Scholar 

Allan, R. & Ansell, T. A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850–2004. J. Clim. 19, 5816–5842 (2006).

Article  Google Scholar 

Cox, P. et al. Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability. Nature 494, 341–344 (2013).

CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

O’Callaghan, J. F. & Mark, D. M. The extraction of drainage networks from digital elevation data.Computer Vision Graphics Image Process. 28, 323–344 (1984).

Article  Google Scholar 

Rogelj, J. et al. Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 519–527 (2015).

Article  Google Scholar 

Samir, K. C. & Lutz, W. The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: population scenarios by age, sex, and level of education for all countries to 2100. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 181–192 (2017).

Article  Google Scholar