Colwell, R. K., Brehm, G., Cardelús, C. L., Gilman, A. C. & Longino, J. T. Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics. Science 322, 258–261 (2008).
Google Scholar
Jump, A. S., Matyas, C. & Penuelas, J. The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species. Trends Ecol. Evol. 24(12), 694–701. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.007 (2009).
Google Scholar
Malcolm, J. R., Liu, C., Neilson, R. O., Hansen, A. & Hannah, L. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conserv. Biol. 20(2), 538–548. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00364.x (2006).
Google Scholar
Gentili, R. et al. Review: Potential warm stage microrefugia for alpine plants: Feedback between geomorphological and biological processes. Ecol. Complex. 21, 87–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2014.11.006 (2015).
Google Scholar
Malhi, Y. & Wright, J. Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B. 359, 311–329. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2003.1433Phil (2004).
Google Scholar
IPCC. In Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Core Writing Team (eds. Pachauri, R. K., Meyer, L. A.) 155 (IPCC, Geneva, 2014).
Kreyling, J., Wana, D. & Beierkuhnlein, C. Climate warming and tropical plant species—consequence of the potential upslope shift of isotherms in southern Ethiopia. Divers. Distrib. 16, 593–605. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00675.x (2010).
Google Scholar
Beierkuhnlein, C. Biogeografie. Die räumliche Organisation des Lebens in einer sich verändernden Welt (Eugen Ulmer Verlag, 2007).
Google Scholar
Körner, C. The use of “altitude” for ecological research. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22(11), 569–574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2007.09.006 (2007).
Google Scholar
Messerli, B., and Ives, J.D. (1997). Mountains of the world: a global priority. edited by B. Messerli and J.D. Ives. Parthenon Pub. Group, New York. 495p.
Flantua, S. G. A. et al. Snapshot isolation and isolation history challenge the analogy between mountains and islands used to understand endemism. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 29, 1651–1673. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13155 (2020).
Google Scholar
Steinbauer, M. et al. Topography-driven isolation, speciation and a global increase of endemism with elevation. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 25(9), 1097–1107. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12469 (2016).
Google Scholar
Testolin, R. et al. Global patterns and drivers of alpine plant species richness. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 30, 1218–1231. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13297 (2021).
Google Scholar
Buytaert, W., Cuesta-Camacho, F. & Tobon, C. Potential impacts of climate change on the environmental services of humid tropical alpine regions. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 20, 19–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00585.x (2011).
Google Scholar
Grabherr, G., Gottfried, M. & Pauli, H. Climate change impacts in alpine environments. Geogr. Compass 4, 1133–1153 (2010).
Google Scholar
Nagy, L. & Grabherr, G. The Biology of Alpine Habitats (Oxford University Press, 2009).
Razgour, O., Kasso, M., Santos, H. & Juste, J. Up in the air: Threats to Afromontane biodiversity from climate change and habitat loss revealed by genetic monitoring of the Ethiopian Highlands bat. Evol. Appl. 14, 794–806. https://doi.org/10.1111/eva.13161 (2021).
Google Scholar
Vuilleumier, F. & Monasterio, M. Introduction: high tropical Mountain Biota of the world. In High mountains tropical biogeography (eds Vuilleumier, F. & Monasterio, M.) (Oxford University Press, 1986).
Gehrke, B. & Linder, H. P. Species richness, endemism, and species composition in the tropical afroalpine flora. Alp. Bot. 124, 165–177 (2014).
Google Scholar
Hedberg, O. Features of afroalpine plant ecology. Acta Phytogeogr. Suec. 49, 1–144 (1964).
Hedberg, O. Vegetation belts of the East African mountains. Sven. Bot. Tidskr. 45, 140–202 (1951).
Hillman, J. C. The Bale Mountains National Park Area, Southeast Ethiopia and its management. Mt. Res. Dev. 8(2/3), 253–258 (1988).
Google Scholar
Miehe, S. & Miehe, G. Ericaceous Forests and Heathlands in the Bale Mountains of South Ethiopia .Ecology and Man’s Impact (Stiftung Walderhaltung in Africa, 1994).
Kidane, Y. O., Steinbauer, M. J. & Beierkuhnlein, C. Dead end for endemic plant species? A biodiversity hotspot under pressure. Glob. Ecol. Conserv. 19, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00670 (2019).
Google Scholar
McGuire, A. F., Kathleen, A. & Kron, K. A. Phylogenetic relationships of European and African Ericas. Int. J. Plant Sci. 162(2), 311–318. https://doi.org/10.1086/427478 (2005).
Google Scholar
Wesche, K. The importance of occasional droughts for afroalpine landscape ecology. J. Trop. Ecol. 19, 197–208. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266467403003225 (2003).
Google Scholar
Gil-Romera, G. et al. Long-term fire resilience of the Ericaceous Belt, Bale Mountains, Ethiopia. Biol. Lett. 15, 20190357. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2019.0357 (2019).
Google Scholar
Gizaw, A. et al. Phylogeography of the heathers Erica arborea and E. trimera in the afro-alpine “sky islands” inferred from AFLPs and plastid DNA sequences. Flora 208, 453–463 (2013).
Google Scholar
Johansson, M. Fire and Grazing in Subalpine Heathlands and Forests of Bale Mountains, Ethiopia (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 2013).
Johansson, M. U., Frisk, C. A., Nemomissa, S. & Hylander, K. Disturbance from traditional fire management in subalpine heathlands increases Afro-alpine plant resilience to climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 24(7), 2952–2964. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14121 (2018).
Google Scholar
Wesche, K., Miehe, G. & Kaeppeli, M. The significance of fire for afroalpine ericaceous vegetation. Mt. Res. Dev. 20, 340–347. https://doi.org/10.1659/0276-4741(2000)020[0340:TSOFFA]2.0.CO;2 (2000).
Google Scholar
Urban, M. C. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. Science 348, 571–573. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4984 (2015).
Google Scholar
Warren, R. et al. Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 678–682. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1887 (2013).
Google Scholar
Hillman, J. C. Conservation in Ethiopia’s Bale Mountains. Endanger. Species 3, 1–4 (1986).
Johansson, M. U. & Granström, A. Fuel, fire, and cattle in African highlands: traditional management maintains a mosaic heathland landscape. J. Appl. Ecol. 51, 1396–1405. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12291 (2014).
Google Scholar
Ossendorf, G. et al. Middle Stone Age foragers resided in high elevations of the glaciated Bale Mountains, Ethiopia. Science 365(6453), 583–587. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw8942 (2019).
Google Scholar
Uhlig, S. & Uhlig, K. Mountain chronicles. Studies on the altitudinal zonation of forests and alpine plants in the Central Bale Mountains, Ethiopia. Mt. Res. Dev. 11, 153–256 (1991).
Google Scholar
Umer, M. et al. Late Pleistocene Holocene vegetation history of the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia. Quatern. Sci. Rev. 26, 2229–2246 (2007).
Google Scholar
Wesche, K. et al. Recruitment of trees at tropical alpine treelines: Erica in Africa versus Polylepis in South America. Plant Ecol. Divers. 1, 35–46. https://doi.org/10.1080/17550870802262166 (2008).
Google Scholar
Di Falco, S., Veronesi, M. & Yesuf, M. Does adaptation to climate change provide food security? A micro-perspective from Ethiopia. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 93(3), 829–846. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aar006 (2011).
Google Scholar
Nsengiyumva, P. African mountains in a changing climate: trends, impacts, and adaptation solutions. Mt. Res. Dev. 39(2), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-19-00062.1 (2019).
Google Scholar
IPCC. Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (eds. Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (2018).
Araújo, M. B. & Guisan, A. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modeling. J. Biogeogr. 33(10), 1677–1688. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01584.x (2006).
Google Scholar
Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra, J. L., Jones, P. G. & Jarvis, A. Very high-resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 1965–1978 (2005).
Google Scholar
Bonnefille, R. Evidence for a cooler and drier climate in the Ethiopian uplands towards 2.5 Myr ago. Nature 303, 487–491. https://doi.org/10.1038/303487a0 (1983).
Google Scholar
Bonnefille, R., Roeland, J. C. & Guiot, J. Temperature and rainfall estimate for the past 40,000 years in equatorial Africa. Nature 346, 347–349 (1990).
Google Scholar
Gottelli, D., Marino, J., Sillero-Zubiri, C. & Funk, S. M. The effect of the last glacial age on speciation and population genetic structure of the endangered Ethiopian wolf (Canis simensis). Mol. Ecol. 13, 2275–2286 (2004).
Google Scholar
Smith, A. P. & Young, T. P. Tropical alpine plant ecology. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 18, 137–158 (1987).
Google Scholar
Kidane, Y. O., Stahlman, R. & Beierkuhnlein, C. Vegetation dynamics, and land use and land cover change in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia. Environ. Monit. Assess. 184(12), 7473–7489. https://doi.org/10.1007/S10661-011-2514-8 (2012).
Google Scholar
Hedberg, O. Origins of the afroalpine Flora. In High Mountains Tropical Biogeography (eds Vuilleumier, F. & Monasterio, M.) (Oxford University Press, 1986) (Published by Oxford University Press and the American Museum of Natural History).
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The Paris Agreement. https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/paris_agreement_english_.pdf (2015). Accessed November 19, 2021.
QGIS Development Team. QGIS Geographic Information System. Open-Source Geospatial Foundation Project. http://qgis.osgeo.org (2018).
Foody, G. M. Status of land cover classification accuracy assessment. Remote Sens. Environ. 80(1), 185–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(01)00295-4 (2002).
Google Scholar
Wegmann, M., Leutner, B. & Dech, S. Remote Sensing and GIS for Ecologists: Using Open Software 333 (Pelagic Publishing, UK, 2016).
Duveiller, G., Defourny, P., Descle’e, B. & Mayaux, P. Deforestation in Central Africa: Estimates at regional, national, and landscape levels by advanced processing of systematically distributed Landsat extracts. Remote Sens. Environ. 112(5), 1969–1981. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2007.07.026 (2008).
Google Scholar
Smeeton, N. C. Early history of the kappa statistic. Biometrics 41(3), 795–795 (1985).
R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing [Internet]. http://www.R-project.org/ (2019).
Naimi, B. & Araújo, M. B. SDM: a reproducible and extensible R platform for species distribution modeling. Ecography 39, 368–375. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01881 (2016).
Google Scholar
Naimi, B., Hamm, N. A. S., Groen, T. A., Skidmore, A. K. & Toxopeus, A. G. Where is positional uncertainty a problem for species distribution modeling? Ecography 37(2), 191–203 (2014).
Google Scholar
Austin, M. P. Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecol. Model. 157, 101–118 (2002).
Google Scholar
World Climate Research Program (WCRP). Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip5 (2021).
Hijmans, R. J., & Elith, J. Species distribution modelling with R. https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/dismo/vignettes/sdm.pdf (2017). Accessed July 2018.
Elith, J., Leathwick, J. R. & Hastie, T. A working guide to boosted regression trees. J. Anim. Ecol. 77, 802–881 (2009).
Google Scholar
Hijmans, R. J. & van Etten, J. Raster: Geographic Analysis and Modelling with Raster Data. R package version 1.8-39. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=raster (2011). Accessed July 2018.
Elith, J. et al. Novel methods improve prediction of “species” distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29, 129–151 (2006).
Google Scholar
Booth, T. H., Nix, H. A., Busby, J. R. & Hutchinson, M. F. BIOCLIM: the first species distribution modelling package, its early applications and relevance to most current MAXENT studies. Divers. Distrib. 20, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12144 (2014).
Google Scholar
Carpenter, G., Gillison, A. N. & Winter, J. Domain: a flexible modelling procedure for mapping potential distributions of plants and animals. Biodivers. Conserv. 2, 667–680 (1993).
Google Scholar
Vapnik, V. Statistical Learning Theory (Wiley, 1998).
Google Scholar
Mateo, R. G., Felicísimo, Á. M., Pottier, J., Guisan, A. & Muñoz, J. Do stacked species distribution models reflect altitudinal diversity patterns?. PloS ONE 7(3), e32586. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0032586 (2012).
Google Scholar
Thuiller, W. BIOMOD—optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Glob. Change Biol. 9, 1353–1362 (2003).
Google Scholar
Peterson, A. T. et al. Ecological Niches and Geographic Distributions. Monographs in Population Biology-49 (Princeton University Press, 2011).
Google Scholar
Steinbauer, M. J. et al. Accelerated increase in plant species richness on mountain summits is linked to warming. Nature 556, 231–234 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0005-6 (2018).
Google Scholar
Chala, D., Niklaus, E., Zimmermann, E. Z., Brochmann, C. & Bakkestuen, V. Migration corridors for alpine plants among the “sky islands” of eastern Africa: do they, or did they exist?. Alp. Bot. 127, 133–144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00035-017-0184-z (2017).
Google Scholar
Körner, C. & Hiltbrunner, E. Why is the alpine flora comparatively robust against climatic warming? Diversity 13, 383. https://doi.org/10.3390/d13080383 (2021).
Google Scholar
Winkler, M. et al. The rich sides of mountain summit a pan-European view on aspect preferences of alpine plants. J. Biogeogr. 43(11), 2261–2273. https://doi.org/10.1111/Jbi.12835 (2016).
Google Scholar
United States Geological Survey (USGS). Landsat Archive. Landsat standard data products. http://landsat.usgs.gov (2018). Accessed July 17, 2018.
Di Falco, S., Yesuf, M., Kohlin, G. & Ringler, C. Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Environ. Resour. Econ. 52, 457–478. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-011-9538-y (2011).
Google Scholar
Source: Ecology - nature.com
