Based on 29 climate projections, we find that both the sign and magnitude of potential changes in naturalized streamflow of the Nile in 2021–2050 are highly uncertain. These uncertainties spark the need for an adaptive and cooperative approach. We show that cooperative adaptive management of the GERD yields compromise solutions with economy-wide benefits to Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt compared with a proposal discussed in Washington, D.C. in 2020 (Fig. 1). Under an example compromise solution (Fig. 1), the mean (based on 29 projections) discounted (at 3%) real gross domestic product (GDP) increases by US$0.77, 0.67 and 0.18 billion in 2020–2045 for Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, respectively, relative to the Washington draft proposal. These benefits are more pronounced under extreme climate scenarios, with rises in discounted real GDP of up to US$15.8, 6.3 and 3.0 billion over 2020–2045 for Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, respectively. Our results should be complemented by evaluating the impacts on ecology, groundwater and riparian populations.
Source: Resources - nature.com