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My office at the University of California, Santa Barbara, looks out over the coastline. The United States’ first set of offshore oil platforms dot the skyline, the source of the 1969 oil spill that started the modern environmental movement. Enormous cargo ships traverse an ocean mega-highway, bringing goods from around the world and occasionally striking and killing whales. Surfers ride waves, sailing boats head for the islands and, on clear days, the beaches crawl with sunbathers. Recreational fishers cast their lines from the pier, commercial fishers set lobster traps along the coast, and a small mussel farm is hidden below the water just offshore.All of these activities are part of an intensifying ‘blue economy’, withdrawing value from the oceans that cover 71% of our planet. In many ways, this is a good thing. Shipping goods by sea is one of the most environmentally friendly ways to conduct global trade; farmed seafood is highly nutritious and often sustainable; offshore wind has the potential to generate huge amounts of green energy. But soon the already warming, already crowded ocean will reach the same points of no return that humans have reached on much of the land.Indeed, aquaculture, or farming seafood, has increased about 5% each year for the past 30 years, and experts anticipate that this growth will continue for the next few decades. Offshore wind is rapidly expanding; the United Kingdom is building a 1,000-square-kilometre metropolis of wind turbines off its coast, and China quadrupled offshore wind production just last year, adding the equivalent of roughly 17 nuclear power plants. An even more enormous area for wind farms has been proposed off the US Atlantic coast, at 7,000 square kilometres, nearly the size of Puerto Rico. And by 2050, the amount of goods travelling by sea is expected to triple as a result of increasing global population, wealth and trade.This is the dilemma at the centre of my research. For 20 years, I’ve studied how uses of the ocean cumulatively damage marine ecosystems, but also support vibrant human communities. From this work, I’ve come to feel there needs to be a collective deal to ensure that the economic benefits of the blue economy outweigh the ecological costs. I propose that any new ocean activities should be sustainable and also contribute to reduce pressure on the land.There is precedent for such give-and-take deals. In the United States and elsewhere, developers who encroach on wetlands and streams must create or restore equivalent habitats elsewhere, often at ratios of two-to-one or significantly greater (for example, 10 hectares of new wetland for every hectare destroyed). Carbon credits operate in a similar way; fees paid for emissions can go towards planting forests or building renewable energy infrastructure.A planetary deal of this kind should adhere to three constraints to be fair and effective.First, insist on real gains — not coincidental ones. If coal-fired power plants are already being phased out, this shouldn’t count as a balancing factor for new offshore wind. If conservation easements already protect fallow farmland, this can’t work as the counterpoint to new aquaculture farms.Second, actions need to be managed mainly through policy and regulations, not free markets. Left to their own devices, markets rarely incentivize sustainability or truly compensate for damage done to the environment. For example, evidence shows that increasing the amount of farmed fish in a free market does not reduce meat production.Finally, large corporations should bear the brunt of the costs of the planetary deal. Encouraging small operators often improves environmental justice while increasing local livelihoods and economic security by keeping owners and workers local. Compensatory requirements should be proportionally less for these small operators and progressively more for larger ones, analogous to the way income tax works in much of the world.So what might this planetary deal look like? For example, to receive a lease for a new 100-square-kilometre offshore wind farm, a company must restore twice as much coastal habitat. This restored habitat must be additional to any existing efforts to protect habitat, such as current global targets to protect 30% of land and sea.Or, for a new commercial offshore fish farm, enough land used for livestock should be permanently fallowed to remove a volume of livestock equivalent to the intended fish production. Such ‘habitat credits’ could be traded in the same way as carbon credits. The cattle farmer would get paid a tradable credit per reduced cattle head and hectare; an aquaculture company would need to purchase that credit to cover the increase in fish production.None of these options is politically easy — many will say that such policy and market regulation will slow progress and can be circumvented by determined bad actors — but in my opinion we must embrace them. They will require local, national and international coordination and enforcement, as well as public support. Science can help to inform and monitor effectiveness; government agencies will need to determinedly implement change. Moving forward with the blue economy without concomitant reductions in human pressures on both land and sea will simply sacrifice our oceans without planetary gain. That is no deal at all.

Competing Interests
The author declares no competing interests. More

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The availability of abundant green hydrogen (H2) fuels is important for decarbonization and the green energy transition. However, the production of large supplies of green H2 has so far been limited by the high energy consumption, high-purity water demand and the complexities of H2 transportation and distribution.
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Each year weather records are being broken around the globe; this boreal summer has seen heat records fall across Europe, America and Central Asia. These discernible effects of climate change cannot be ignored, as combined with global issues they endanger society and well-being.
The news headlines in the weeks of July 2022 have been dominated by reports of heatwave events in the UK, across Europe and the USA. The UK experienced record temperatures, with some locations exceeding 40 °C for the first time, while equally high temperatures were seen across the continent. Fires broke out in the extreme heat — extensive wildfires threatening lives and property, as has been seen all too often in recent years around the globe. In the USA, from the south to the north, temperatures exceeded 100 °F (37.8 °C) spanning the nation.
Credit: René Schmidt / Alamy Stock PhotoIn Spain, the recent heatwave was the first to be named, Zoe, as part of a trial in Seville1. It is standard practice for tropical cyclones to be named, allowing easy identification of different systems and providing early warning to those at risk, and this pilot of naming severe heatwaves aims to imitate that strategy and increase public awareness of impending heat risk. The system includes three tiers, and only time will tell how many top-tier, and therefore named, heatwaves will be seen this summer, and in the coming years.Outside the headlines seen here in the UK, there were extreme temperatures in Central Asia and China, and much of the globe saw heat anomalies pushing temperatures beyond the ‘norm’. These are not isolated events, normal is no longer that, as climate change and warming continue. Acknowledging the effect of climate change on average temperatures, earlier this year the UK Met Office updated their heatwave threshold classification — shifting from using the 1981–2010 average daily maximum mid-summer temperature to now using 1991–2020 as the base period (https://go.nature.com/3Q1Vhv2). Heatwaves occur when the temperature equals or exceeds this average for three consecutive days.Extended periods of hot weather put stress on societies and increases mortality risk. An attribution study showed that climate change increased heat-related mortality risk during the 2003 European heatwave — with the highest increase of approximately 70% occurring in central Paris2. Alongside the risks associated with heatwaves themselves, a recent study showed that higher ambient temperatures in Latin America increased the risk of premature death by 5.7% per 1 °C increase3. Another study considering data covering 43 countries and the period 1991–2018 showed that 37% of heat-related deaths in the warm seasons could be attributed to climate change4. This is further explored in a Feature, in our July issue, debating whether climate-related data should be included on death certificates for better understanding of climate change impacts on human mortality5.The immediate impact on human health from heat abates as weather systems pass, but these events as well as higher ambient temperatures have far-reaching consequences. Higher temperatures, in the short and long term, are raising concerns for water and food security, with food security currently of high concern as it is further exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. In Africa, there is ongoing wide-scale drought in the Horn of Africa, extending throughout East Africa, as well as drought in West Africa and the Sahel. Agriculture in these regions relies on rainfall and with four failed seasons in East Africa, and a drought touted as the worst in 40 years, there is insufficient water for crops to produce. Estimates place hundreds of millions of people at risk from this food crisis, with the situation in West Africa being exacerbated by conflict in the region.The risks of climate change continue to emerge, with those covered here just a small sample of those that have occurred, or are ongoing, in recent months. We have said it many times before but time is running out, there needs to be action and committed focus on addressing climate change as the new normal keeps shifting and we cannot adapt to keep pace. More

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Occoquan Watershed Monitoring Laboratory, The Charles E. Via Jr Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, Manassas, VA, USAShantanu V. Bhide, Stanley B. Grant, Emily A. Parker, Megan A. Rippy & Adil N. GodrejCenter for Coastal Studies, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USAStanley B. Grant, Megan A. Rippy & Todd SchenkDepartment of Geology and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USASujay KaushalFairfax Water, Fairfax, VA, USAGreg Prelewicz & Niffy SajiStormwater Planning Division, Public Works and Environmental Services, Fairfax, VA, USAShannon CurtisThe Charles E. Via Jr Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USAPeter Vikesland, Ayella Maile-Moskowitz, Marc Edwards & Kathryn G. LopezSchool of Public and International Affairs, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USAThomas A. BirklandUrban Affairs and Planning, School of Public and International Affairs, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USATodd Schenk More