More stories

  • in

    Plant traits and marsh fate

    Coleman, D. J. et al. Limnol. Oceanogr. Lett. 7, 140–149 (2022).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Noyce, G. L. et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-01070-6 (2022).Kirwan, M. L. & Megonigal, J. P. Nature 504, 53–60 (2013).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Morris, J. T., Sundareshwar, P. V., Nietch, C. T., Kjerve, B. & Cahoon, D. R. Ecology 83, 2869–2877 (2002).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Noyce, G. L., Kirwan, M. L., Rich, R. L. & Megonigal, J. P. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 116, 21623–21628 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Langley, J. A., McKee, K. L., Cahoon, D. R., Cherry, J. A. & Megonigal, J. P. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 106, 182–6186 (2009).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Dean, J. F. et al. Rev. Geophys. 56, 207–250 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    IPCC Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (Cambridge University Press, 2021).Lin, Y. et al. Water Res. 205, 117682 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Zakharova, L., Meyer, K. M. & Seifan, M. Ecol. Modell. 407, 108703 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar  More

  • in

    Solar radiation, temperature and the reproductive biology of the coral Lobactis scutaria in a changing climate

    Moberg, F. & Folke, C. Ecological goods and services of coral reef ecosystems. Ecol. Econ. 29, 215–233 (1999).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Plaisance, L., Caley, M. J., Brainard, R. E. & Knowlton, N. The diversity of coral reefs: What are we missing?. PLoS ONE 6, e25026 (2011).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Frieler, K. et al. Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 165–170 (2013).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Hughes, T. P. et al. Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs. Science 301, 929–933 (2003).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Carpenter, K. E. et al. One-third of reef-building corals face elevated extinction risk from climate change and local impacts. Science 321, 560–563 (2008).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Lotze, H. K. et al. Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 116, 12907–12912 (2019).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Doney, S. C. et al. Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 4, 11–37 (2012).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Van Oppen, M. J., Oliver, J. K., Putnam, H. M. & Gates, R. D. Building coral reef resilience through assisted evolution. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 112, 2307–2313 (2015).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Parrett, J. M. & Knell, R. J. The effect of sexual selection on adaptation and extinction under increasing temperatures. Proc. R. Soc. B. 285, 20180303 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Hagedorn, M. et al. Assisted gene flow using cryopreserved sperm in critically endangered coral. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 118, e2110559118 (2021).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Hughes, T. P. et al. Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals. Nature 543, 373–377 (2017).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Hughes, T. P. et al. Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages. Nature 556, 492–496 (2018).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Epstein, N., Bak, R. & Rinkevich, B. Applying forest restoration principles to coral reef rehabilitation. Aquat. Conserv. Mar. Freshw. Ecosyst. 13, 387–395 (2003).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    West, J. M. & Salm, R. V. Resistance and resilience to coral bleaching: Implications for coral reef conservation and management. Conserv. Biol. 17, 956–967 (2003).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Yeemin, T., Sutthacheep, M. & Pettongma, R. Coral reef restoration projects in Thailand. Ocean Coast. Manag. 49, 562–575 (2006).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Anthony, K. et al. Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change. Glob. Chang. Biol. 21, 48–61 (2015).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Randall, C. J. et al. Sexual production of corals for reef restoration in the Anthropocene. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 635, 203–232 (2020).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Porter, J. W., Fitt, W. K., Spero, H. J., Rogers, C. S. & White, M. W. Bleaching in reef corals: Physiological and stable isotopic responses. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 86, 9342–9346 (1989).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Mendes, J. M. & Woodley, J. D. Effect of the 1995–1996 bleaching event on polyp tissue depth, growth, reproduction and skeletal band formation in Montastraea annularis. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 235, 93–102 (2002).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Grottoli, A., Rodrigues, L. & Juarez, C. Lipids and stable carbon isotopes in two species of Hawaiian corals, Porites compressa and Montipora verrucosa, following a bleaching event. Mar. Biol. 145, 621–631 (2004).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Rodrigues, L. J. & Grottoli, A. G. Energy reserves and metabolism as indicators of coral recovery from bleaching. Limnol. Oceanogr. 52, 1874–1882 (2007).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Levas, S. J., Grottoli, A. G., Hughes, A., Osburn, C. L. & Matsui, Y. Physiological and biogeochemical traits of bleaching and recovery in the mounding species of coral Porites lobata: Implications for resilience in mounding corals. PLoS ONE 8, e63267 (2013).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Schoepf, V. et al. Annual coral bleaching and the long-term recovery capacity of coral. Proc. R. Soc. B. 282, 20151887 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Dai, C., Fan, T. & Yu, J. Reproductive isolation and genetic differentiation of a scleractinian coral Mycedium elephantotus. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 201, 179–187 (2000).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Vargas-Ángel, B., Colley, S. B., Hoke, S. M. & Thomas, J. D. The reproductive seasonality and gametogenic cycle of Acropora cervicornis off Broward County, Florida, USA. Coral Reefs 25, 110–122 (2006).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Rosser, N. & Gilmour, J. New insights into patterns of coral spawning on Western Australian reefs. Coral Reefs 27, 345–349 (2008).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Szmant, A. M. & Gassman, N. J. The effects of prolonged “bleaching” on the tissue biomass and reproduction of the reef coral Montastrea annularis. Coral Reefs 8, 217–224 (1990).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Baird, A. H. & Marshall, P. A. Mortality, growth and reproduction in scleractinian corals following bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 237, 133–141 (2002).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Levitan, D. R., Boudreau, W., Jara, J. & Knowlton, N. Long-term reduced spawning in Orbicella coral species due to temperature stress. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 515, 1–10 (2014).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Ward, S., Harrison, P. & Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Coral bleaching reduces reproduction of scleractinian corals and increases susceptibility to future stress. In Proc. 9th Int. Coral Reef Symp. 1123–1128 (2002).Johnston, E. C., Counsell, C. W., Sale, T. L., Burgess, S. C. & Toonen, R. J. The legacy of stress: Coral bleaching impacts reproduction years later. Funct. Ecol. 34, 2315–2325 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Hirose, M. & Hidaka, M. Reduced reproductive success in scleractinian corals that survived the 1998 bleaching in Okinawa. Galaxea 2000, 17–21 (2000).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Omori, M., Fukami, H., Kobinata, H. & Hatta, M. Significant drop of fertilization of Acropora corals in 1999: An after-effect of heavy coral bleaching?. Limnol. Oceanogr. 46, 704–706 (2001).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Hagedorn, M. et al. Potential bleaching effects on coral reproduction. Reprod. Fertil. Dev. 28, 1061–1071 (2016).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Bassim, K., Sammarco, P. & Snell, T. Effects of temperature on success of (self and non-self) fertilization and embryogenesis in Diploria strigosa (Cnidaria, Scleractinia). Mar. Biol. 140, 479–488 (2002).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Kenkel, C. D. et al. Development of gene expression markers of acute heat-light stress in reef-building corals of the genus Porites. PLoS ONE 6, e26914 (2011).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Louis, Y. D., Bhagooli, R., Kenkel, C. D., Baker, A. C. & Dyall, S. D. Gene expression biomarkers of heat stress in scleractinian corals: Promises and limitations. Comp. Biochem. Physiol. C Toxicol. Pharmacol. 191, 63–77 (2017).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Bonesso, J. L., Leggat, W. & Ainsworth, T. D. Exposure to elevated sea-surface temperatures below the bleaching threshold impairs coral recovery and regeneration following injury. PeerJ 5, e3719 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Gierz, S., Ainsworth, T. D. & Leggat, W. Diverse symbiont bleaching responses are evident from 2-degree heating week bleaching conditions as thermal stress intensifies in coral. Mar. Freshw. Res. 71, 1149–1160 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Baker, D. M., Freeman, C. J., Wong, J. C., Fogel, M. L. & Knowlton, N. Climate change promotes parasitism in a coral symbiosis. ISME J. 12, 921–930 (2018).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Yee, S. H. & Barron, M. G. Predicting coral bleaching in response to environmental stressors using 8 years of global-scale data. Environ. Monit. Assess. 161, 423–438 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Lesser, M. P. Coral bleaching: causes and mechanisms. In Coral Reefs: An Ecosystem in Transition (eds Riegl, B. M. & Purkis, S. J.) 405–419 (Springer, 2011).Chapter 

    Google Scholar 
    Barber, J. & Andersson, B. Too much of a good thing: Light can be bad for photosynthesis. Trends Biochem. Sci. 17, 61–66 (1992).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Aro, E.-M., Virgin, I. & Andersson, B. Photoinhibition of photosystem II. Inactivation, protein damage and turnover. Biochim. Biophys. Acta Bioenergy 1143, 113–134 (1993).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Lesser, M. P. & Farrell, J. H. Exposure to solar radiation increases damage to both host tissues and algal symbionts of corals during thermal stress. Coral Reefs 23, 367–377 (2004).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Salih, A., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. & Cox, G. Bleaching responses of symbiotic dinoflagellates in corals: the effects of light and elevated temperature on their morphology and physiology. In Proceedings of the Australian Coral Reef Society 75th Anniversary Conference (eds Greenwood, J. G. & Hall, N. R.) 199–216 (1998).Smith, D. J., Suggett, D. J. & Baker, N. R. Is photoinhibition of zooxanthellae photosynthesis the primary cause of thermal bleaching in corals?. Glob. Chang. Biol. 11, 1–11 (2005).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Downs, C. et al. Heat-stress and light-stress induce different cellular pathologies in the symbiotic dinoflagellate during coral bleaching. PLoS ONE 8, e77173 (2013).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Banaszak, A. T. & Lesser, M. P. Effects of solar ultraviolet radiation on coral reef organisms. Photochem. Photobiol. Sci. 8, 1276–1294 (2009).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Jokiel, P. L. & York, R. H. Jr. Solar ultraviolet photobiology of the reef coral Pocillopora damicornis and symbiotic zooxanthellae. Bull. Mar. Sci. 32, 301–315 (1982).
    Google Scholar 
    Vareschi, E. & Fricke, H. Light responses of a scleractinian coral (Plerogyra sinuosa). Mar. Biol. 90, 395–402 (1986).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Henley, E. M. et al. Reproductive plasticity of Hawaiian Montipora corals following thermal stress. Sci. Rep. 11, 12525 (2021).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Wellington, G. & Fitt, W. Influence of UV radiation on the survival of larvae from broadcast-spawning reef corals. Mar. Biol. 143, 1185–1192 (2003).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Gleason, D. F. & Wellington, G. M. Ultraviolet radiation and coral bleaching. Nature 365, 836–838 (1993).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Courtial, L., Roberty, S., Shick, J. M., Houlbrèque, F. & Ferrier-Pagès, C. Interactive effects of ultraviolet radiation and thermal stress on two reef-building corals. Limnol. Oceanogr. 62, 1000–1013 (2017).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Bahr, K. D., Jokiel, P. L. & Rodgers, K. S. The 2014 coral bleaching and freshwater flood events in Kāneʻohe Bay. Hawaiʻi. PeerJ 3, e1136 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Rodgers, K. S., Bahr, K. D., Jokiel, P. L. & Richards Donà, A. Patterns of bleaching and mortality following widespread warming events in 2014 and 2015 at the Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve, Hawai‘i. PeerJ 5, e3355 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Ritson-Williams, R. & Gates, R. D. Coral community resilience to successive years of bleaching in Kāne‘ohe Bay, Hawai‘i. Coral Reefs 39, 757–769 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Krupp, D. A. Sexual reproduction and early development of the solitary coral Fungia scutaria (Anthozoa: Scleractinia). Coral Reefs 2, 159–164 (1983).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Kramarsky-Winter, E. & Loya, Y. Reproductive strategies of two fungiid corals from the northern Red Sea: Environmental constraints?. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 174, 175–182 (1998).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Loya, Y. & Sakai, K. Bidirectional sex change in mushroom stony corals. Proc. R. Soc. B. 275, 2335–2343 (2008).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Hagedorn, M. et al. Coral larvae conservation: Physiology and reproduction. Cryobiology 52, 33–47 (2006).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Jokiel, P. L. & Brown, E. K. Global warming, regional trends and inshore environmental conditions influence coral bleaching in Hawaii. Glob. Chang. Biol. 10, 1627–1641 (2004).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Tanaka, K., Guidry, M. W. & Gruber, N. Ecosystem responses of the subtropical Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii, to climate change: A nitrogen cycle modeling approach. Aquat. Geochem. 19, 569–590 (2013).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Couch, C. S. et al. Mass coral bleaching due to unprecedented marine heatwave in Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (Northwestern Hawaiian Islands). PLoS ONE 12, e0185121 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Coles, S. L. et al. Evidence of acclimatization or adaptation in Hawaiian corals to higher ocean temperatures. PeerJ 6, e5347 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Barnhill, K. A. & Bahr, K. D. Coral resilience at Malaukaa fringing reef, Kāneʻohe Bay, Oʻahu after 18 years. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 7, 311 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Lesser, M., Stochaj, W., Tapley, D. & Shick, J. Bleaching in coral reef anthozoans: Effects of irradiance, ultraviolet radiation, and temperature on the activities of protective enzymes against active oxygen. Coral Reefs 8, 225–232 (1990).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Brown, B., Dunne, R., Scoffin, T. & Le Tissier, M. Solar damage in intertidal corals. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 219–230 (1994).Le Tissier, M. D. A. & Brown, B. E. Dynamics of solar bleaching in the intertidal reef coral Goniastrea aspera at Ko Phuket, Thailand. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 136, 235–244 (1996).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Lesser, M. P. Elevated temperatures and ultraviolet radiation cause oxidative stress and inhibit photosynthesis in symbiotic dinoflagellates. Limnol. Oceanogr. 41, 271–283 (1996).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Takahashi, S., Nakamura, T., Sakamizu, M., Woesik, R. V. & Yamasaki, H. Repair machinery of symbiotic photosynthesis as the primary target of heat stress for reef-building corals. Plant Cell Physiol. 45, 251–255 (2004).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Coelho, V. et al. Shading as a mitigation tool for coral bleaching in three common Indo-Pacific species. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 497, 152–163 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Marquis, R. J. Phenological variation in the neotropical understory shrub Piper arielanum: Causes and consequences. Ecology 69, 1552–1565 (1988).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Bouwmeester, J. et al. Latitudinal variation in monthly-scale reproductive synchrony among Acropora coral assemblages in the Indo-Pacific. Coral Reefs 40, 1411–1418 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Hagedorn, M. et al. Preserving and using germplasm and dissociated embryonic cells for conserving Caribbean and Pacific coral. PLoS ONE 7, e33354 (2012).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Zuchowicz, N. et al. Assessing coral sperm motility. Sci. Rep. 11, 61 (2021).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Binet, M., Doyle, C., Williamson, J. & Schlegel, P. Use of JC-1 to assess mitochondrial membrane potential in sea urchin sperm. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 452, 91–100 (2014).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Jokiel, P., Maragos, J. & Franzisket, L. Coral growth: buoyant weight technique. In Coral Reefs: Research Methods Vol. 5 (eds Stoddart, D. R. & Johannes, R. E.) 529–542 (UNESCO, 1978).
    Google Scholar 
    R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. https://www.R-project.org (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2019).Fox, J. & Weisberg, S. An R Companion to Applied Regression 3rd edn. (Sage Publications, 2019).
    Google Scholar 
    Wickham, H. ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis (Springer, 2016).Book 
    MATH 

    Google Scholar 
    Kuznetsova, A., Brockhoff, P. B. & Christensen, R. H. B. lmerTest package: Tests in linear mixed effects models. J. Stat. Softw. 82, 1–26 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Lenth, R. V. Least-squares means: The R package lsmeans. J. Stat. Softw. 69, 1–33 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Hothorn, T., Bretz, F. & Westfall, P. Simultaneous inference in general parametric models. Biom. J. J. Math. Methods Biosci. 50, 346–363 (2008).MathSciNet 
    MATH 

    Google Scholar 
    Graves, S., Piepho, H.-P. & Selzer, M. L. multcompView: Visualizations of paired comparisons. R package version 0.1-7. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=multcompView (2015).Christensen, R. H. B. ordinal-Regression models for ordinal data. R package version 2019.4-25. https://cran.r-project.org/package=ordinal/. (2019).Mangiafico, S. rcompanion: functions to support extension education program evaluation. R package version 2.3.7. https://cran.r-project.org/package=rcompanion (2019).Hope, R. M. Rmisc: Ryan Miscellaneous. R package version 1.5. https://cran.r-project.org/package=Rmisc (2013).Hervé, M. RVAideMemoire: Testing and plotting procedures for biostatistics, R package version 0.9-73. https://cran.r-project.org/package=RVAideMemoire (2019).Callaghan, J. A short note on the intensification and extreme rainfall associated with Hurricane Lane. Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev. 8, 103–107 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Guest, J. R., Baird, A. H., Goh, B. P. L. & Chou, L. M. Seasonal reproduction in equatorial reef corals. Invertebr. Reprod. Dev. 48, 207–218 (2005).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Lotterhos, K. E. & Levitan, D. Gamete release and spawning behavior in broadcast spawning marine invertebrates. In The Evolution of Primary Sexual Characters (eds Leonard, J. & Córdoba-Aguilar, A.) 99–120 (Oxford Univ. Press, 2010).
    Google Scholar 
    Ims, R. A. The ecology and evolution of reproductive synchrony. Trends Ecol. Evol. 5, 135–140 (1990).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Shlesinger, T. & Loya, Y. Breakdown in spawning synchrony: A silent threat to coral persistence. Science 365, 1002–1007 (2019).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Guest, J. R., Baird, A. H., Bouwmeester, J. & Edwards, A. J. To assess temporal breakdown in spawning synchrony requires comparable temporal data. https://doi.org/10.1126/comment.737627/full/ (2020).Hartmann, D. L. et al. Observations: atmosphere and surface. In Climate change 2013 The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 159–254 (Cambridge University Press, 2013).Pörtner, H. et al. IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2019).
    Google Scholar 
    Cheng, L., Abraham, J., Hausfather, Z. & Trenberth, K. E. How fast are the oceans warming?. Science 363, 128–129 (2019).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Gorbunov, M. Y. & Falkowski, P. G. Photoreceptors in the cnidarian hosts allow symbiotic corals to sense blue moonlight. Limnol. Oceanogr. 47, 309–315 (2002).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Boch, C. A., Ananthasubramaniam, B., Sweeney, A. M., Doyle Iii, F. J. & Morse, D. E. Effects of light dynamics on coral spawning synchrony. Biol. Bull. 220, 161–173 (2011).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Sweeney, A. M., Boch, C. A., Johnsen, S. & Morse, D. E. Twilight spectral dynamics and the coral reef invertebrate spawning response. J. Exp. Biol. 214, 770–777 (2011).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Nozawa, Y. Annual variation in the timing of coral spawning in a high-latitude environment: Influence of temperature. Biol. Bull. 222, 192–202 (2012).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Babcock, R. C. et al. Synchronous spawnings of 105 scleractinian coral species on the Great Barrier Reef. Mar. Biol. 90, 379–394 (1986).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Hunter, C. Environmental cues controlling spawning in two Hawaiian corals, Montipora verrucosa and M. dilatata. In Proc 6th Int Coral Reef Symp. vol. 2, 727–732.Levitan, D. R. et al. Mechanisms of reproductive isolation among sympatric broadcast spawning corals of the Montastraea annularis species complex. Evolution 58, 308–323 (2004).
    Google Scholar 
    Negri, A. P., Marshall, P. A. & Heyward, A. J. Differing effects of thermal stress on coral fertilization and early embryogenesis in four Indo Pacific species. Coral Reefs 26, 759–763 (2007).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Humanes, A., Noonan, S. H., Willis, B. L., Fabricius, K. E. & Negri, A. P. Cumulative effects of nutrient enrichment and elevated temperature compromise the early life history stages of the coral Acropora tenuis. PLoS ONE 11, e0161616 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Lesser, M. P., Kruse, V. A. & Barry, T. M. Exposure to ultraviolet radiation causes apoptosis in developing sea urchin embryos. J. Exp. Biol. 206, 4097–4103 (2003).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Häder, D.-P. et al. Effects of UV radiation on aquatic ecosystems and interactions with other environmental factors. Photochem. Photobiol. Sci. 14, 108–126 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Albright, R. & Mason, B. Projected near-future levels of temperature and pCO2 reduce coral fertilization success. PLoS ONE 8, e56468 (2013).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Espinoza, J., Schulz, M., Sanchez, R. & Villegas, J. Integrity of mitochondrial membrane potential reflects human sperm quality. Andrologia 41, 51–54 (2009).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Paoli, D. et al. Mitochondrial membrane potential profile and its correlation with increasing sperm motility. Fertil. Steril. 95, 2315–2319 (2011).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Gallo, A., Esposito, M. C., Tosti, E. & Boni, R. Sperm motility, oxidative status, and mitochondrial activity: Exploring correlation in different species. Antioxidants 10, 1131 (2021).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Schlegel, P., Binet, M. T., Havenhand, J. N., Doyle, C. J. & Williamson, J. E. Ocean acidification impacts on sperm mitochondrial membrane potential bring sperm swimming behaviour near its tipping point. J. Exp. Biol. 218, 1084–1090 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Gulko, D. Effects of ultraviolet radiation on fertilization and production of planula larvae in the Hawaiian coral Fungia scutaria. In Ultraviolet Radiation and Coral Reefs Vol. 41 (eds Gulko, D. & Jokiel, P. L.) 135–147 (University of Hawai’i, 1995).
    Google Scholar 
    Pruski, A. M., Nahon, S., Escande, M.-L. & Charles, F. Ultraviolet radiation induces structural and chromatin damage in Mediterranean sea-urchin spermatozoa. Mutat. Res. Genet. Toxicol. Environ. Mutagen. 673, 67–73 (2009).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Dahms, H.-U. & Lee, J.-S. UV radiation in marine ectotherms: Molecular effects and responses. Aquat. Toxicol. 97, 3–14 (2010).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Nesa, B., Baird, A. H., Harii, S., Yakovleva, I. & Hidaka, M. Algal symbionts increase DNA damage in coral planulae exposed to sunlight. Zool. Stud. 51, 12–17 (2012).CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Paxton, C. W., Baria, M. V. B., Weis, V. M. & Harii, S. Effect of elevated temperature on fecundity and reproductive timing in the coral Acropora digitifera. Zygote 24, 511 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Jokiel, P. & Coles, S. Effects of temperature on the mortality and growth of Hawaiian reef corals. Mar. Biol. 43, 201–208 (1977).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Cantin, N. E., Cohen, A. L., Karnauskas, K. B., Tarrant, A. M. & McCorkle, D. C. Ocean warming slows coral growth in the Central Red Sea. Science 329, 322–325. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1190182 (2010).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Cooper, T. F., De’Ath, G., Fabricius, K. E. & Lough, J. M. Declining coral calcification in massive Porites in two nearshore regions of the northern Great Barrier Reef. Glob. Chang. Biol. 14, 529–538 (2008).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Tanzil, J., Brown, B., Tudhope, A. & Dunne, R. Decline in skeletal growth of the coral Porites lutea from the Andaman Sea, South Thailand between 1984 and 2005. Coral Reefs 28, 519–528 (2009).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Tanzil, J. T. I. et al. Regional decline in growth rates of massive Porites corals in Southeast Asia. Glob. Chang. Biol. 19, 3011–3023 (2013).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Richmond, R. H., Tisthammer, K. H. & Spies, N. P. The effects of anthropogenic stressors on reproduction and recruitment of corals and reef organisms. Front. Mar. Sci. 5, 226 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Chen, P.-Y., Chen, C.-C., Chu, L. & McCarl, B. Evaluating the economic damage of climate change on global coral reefs. Glob. Environ. Change 30, 12–20 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Kaniewska, P., Alon, S., Karako-Lampert, S., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. & Levy, O. Signaling cascades and the importance of moonlight in coral broadcast mass spawning. Elife 4, e09991 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Lin, C.-H., Takahashi, S., Mulla, A. J. & Nozawa, Y. Moonrise timing is key for synchronized spawning in coral Dipsastraea speciosa. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 118, e2101985118 (2021).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Anthony, K. R. et al. Interventions to help coral reefs under global change—A complex decision challenge. PLoS ONE 15, e0236399 (2020).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Daly, J. et al. Cryopreservation can assist gene flow on the Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs 41, 455–462 (2022).Article 

    Google Scholar  More

  • in

    A possible unique ecosystem in the endoglacial hypersaline brines in Antarctica

    Martínez, G. M. & Renno, N. O. Water and brines on Mars: Current evidence and implications for MSL. Sp. Sci. Rev. 175(1), 29–51 (2013).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Orosei, et al. Radar evidence of subglacial liquid water on Mars. Science 361(6401), 490–493. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aar7268 (2018).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Mikucki, J. A. et al. Deep groundwater and potential subsurface habitats beneath an Antarctic dry valley. Nat. Commun. 6(6831), 1–9 (2015).
    Google Scholar 
    Forte, E., Dalle Fratte, M., Azzaro, M. & Guglielmin, M. Pressurized brines in continental Antarctica as a possible analogue of Mars. Sci. Rep. 6, 33158 (2016).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Siegert, M. J., Kennicutt, M. C. & Bindschadler, R. A. Antarctic Subglacial Aquatic Environments (Wiley, 2013).
    Google Scholar 
    Boulton, G. S., Caban, P. E. & van Gijssel, K. Groundwater flow beneath ice sheets: Part I—Large-scale patterns. Quatern. Sci. Rev. 14, 545–562 (1995).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Fricker, H. A., Carter, S. P., Bell, R. E. & Scambos, T. Active lakes of Recovery Ice Stream, East Antarctica: A bedrock-controlled subglacial hydrological system. J. Glaciol. 60(223), 1015–1030. https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG14J063 (2014).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Siegert, M. J. A wide variety of unique environments beneath the Antarctic ice sheet. Geology 44(5), 399–400. https://doi.org/10.1130/focus052016.1 (2016).Article 
    ADS 
    MathSciNet 

    Google Scholar 
    Lyons, W. B. et al. The geochemistry of englacial brine from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 124, 633–648. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JG004411 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Campbell, S., Courville, Z., Sinclair, S. & Wilner, J. Brine, englacial structure and basal properties near the terminus of McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Ann. Glaciol. 58, 74. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2017.26 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Greene, S. et al. Canadian Shield brine from the Con Mine, Yellowknife, NT, Canada: Noble gas evidence for an evaporated Palaeozoic seawater origin mixed with glacial meltwater and Holocene recharge. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 72, 4008–4019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2008.05.058 (2008).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Siegfried, M. R., Fricker, H. A., Carter, S. P. & Tulaczyk, S. Episodic ice velocity fluctuations triggered by a subglacial flood in West Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 2640–2648. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL067758 (2016).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Stearns, L. A., Smith, B. E. & Hamilton, G. S. Increased flow speed on a large East Antarctic outlet glacier caused by subglacial floods. Nat. Geosci. 1(12), 827–831. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo356 (2008).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Kennicutt, M. C. et al. A roadmap for Antarctic and Southern Ocean science for the next two decades and beyond. Antarct. Sci. 27(01), 3–18. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102014000674 (2015).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Welch, K. A. et al. Spatial variations in the geochemistry of glacial meltwater streams in the Taylor Valley, Antarctica. Antarct. Sci. 22(06), 662–672. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102010000702 (2010).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Skidmore, M., Tranter, M., Tulaczyk, S. & Lanoil, B. Hydrochemistry of ice stream beds—evaporitic or microbial effects?. Hydrol. Process. 24(4), 517–523 (2010).
    Google Scholar 
    Lüttge, A. & Conrad, P. G. Direct observation of microbial inhibition of calcite dissolution. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 20, 1627–1632 (2004).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Mikucki, J. A. & Priscu, J. C. Bacterial diversity associated with Blood Falls, a subglacial outflow from the Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 73(12), 4029–4039 (2007).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Mikucki, J. A. et al. A contemporary microbially maintained subglacial ferrous “Ocean”. Science 324(5925), 397–400. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1167350 (2009).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Chua, M. J. et al. Genomic and physiological characterization and description of Marinobacter gelidimuriae sp. Nov., a psychrophilic, moderate halophile from Blood Falls, an Antarctic subglacial brine. FEMS Microbiol. Ecol. 94, fiy021 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Murray, A. E. et al. Microbial life at −13 °C in the brine of an ice-sealed Antarctic lake. PNAS 109, 20626–20631. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1208607109 (2012).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Borruso, L. et al. A thin ice layer segregates two distinct fungal communities in Antarctic brines from Tarn Flat (Northern Victoria Land). Sci. Rep. 8, 1–9 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Papale, M. et al. Microbial assemblages in pressurized Antarctic brine pockets (Tarn Flat, Northern Victoria Land): A hotspot of biodiversity and activity. Microorganisms 7, 333 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Azzaro, M. et al. The prokaryotic community in an extreme Antarctic environment: The brines of Boulder Clay lakes (Northern Victoria Land). Hydrobiologia 848, 1837–1857. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-021-04557-2 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Lo Giudice, A. et al. Prokaryotic diversity and metabolically active communities in brines from two perennially ice-covered Antarctic lakes. Astrobiology 21, 551–565 (2021).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Sannino, C. et al. Intra-and inter-cores fungal diversity suggests interconnection of different habitats in an Antarctic frozen lake (Boulder Clay, Northern Victoria Land). Environ. Microbiol. 22, 3463–3477 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Bratina, B. J., Stevenson, B. S., Green, W. J. & Schmidt, T. M. Manganese reduction by microbes from oxic regions of the lake vanda (Antarctica) water column. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 64, 3791–3797 (1998).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Tregoning, G. S. et al. A halophilic bacterium inhabiting the warm, CaCl2-rich brine of the perennially ice-covered Lake Vanda, McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 81, 1988–1995 (2015).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Kwon, M. et al. Niche specialization of bacteria in permanently ice-covered lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. Environ. Microbiol. 19, 2258–2271 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Forte, E., Azzaro, M. & Guglielmin, M. Evidence of an unprecedented water erosion and supraglacial-fluvial sedimentation on an Antarctic glacier in the Holocene. Sci. Total Environ. 20, 20 (2022).
    Google Scholar 
    Doran, P. T. et al. Radiocarbon distribution and the effect of legacy in lakes of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. Limnol. Oceanogr. 59(3), 811–826. https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.2014.59.3.0811 (2014).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Saccò, M. et al. Salt to conserve: A review on the ecology and preservation of hypersaline ecosystems. Biol. Rev. 96, 2828–2850 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Ramoneda, J. et al. Importance of environmental factors over habitat connectivity in shaping bacterial communities in microbial mats and bacterioplankton in an Antarctic freshwater system. FEMS Microbiol. Ecol. 97, fiab044 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Saxton, M. A. et al. Sulfate reduction and methanogenesis in the hypersaline deep waters and sediments of a perennially ice-covered lake. Limnol. Oceanogr. 66, 1804–1818 (2021).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Frey, B. et al. Microbial diversity in European alpine permafrost and active layers. FEMS Microbiol. Ecol. 92, fiw018. https://doi.org/10.1093/femsec/fiw018 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Hu, W. et al. Characterization of the prokaryotic diversity through a stratigraphic permafrost core profile from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Extremophiles 20, 337–349 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Alekseev, I., Zverev, A. & Abakumov, E. Microbial communities in permafrost soils of Larsemann Hills, Eastern Antarctica: Environmental controls and effect of human impact. Microorganisms 8(8), 1202 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Tian, R. et al. Small and mighty: Adaptation of superphylum Patescibacteria to groundwater environment drives their genome simplicity. Microbiome 8, 51 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Bowman, J. P., McCammon, S. A., Rea, S. M. & McMeekin, T. A. The microbial composition of three limnologically disparate hypersaline Antarctic lakes. FEMS Microbiol. Lett. 183, 81–88 (2000).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Aislabie, J. & Bowman J. P. “Archaeal Diversity in Antarctic Ecosystems.” Polar Microbiology: The Ecology, Biodiversity and Bioremediation Potential of Microorganisms in Extremely Cold Environments 31–59 (CRC Press, 2010).
    Google Scholar 
    Zhang, C. J. et al. Spatial and seasonal variation of methanogenic community in a river-bay system in South China. Appl. Microbiol. Biotechnol. 104, 4593–4603. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00253-020-10613-z (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Bapteste, E., Brochier, C. & Boucher, Y. Higher-level classification of the archaea: Evolution of methanogenesis and methanogens. Archaea 1, 353–363 (2005).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Bowman, J. P. et al. Psychroflexus torquis gen. nov., sp. nov., a psychrophilic species from Antarctic sea ice, and reclassification of Flavobacterium gondwanense (Dobson et al. 1993) as Psychroflexus gondwanense gen. nov., comb. nov.. Microbiology 144, 1601–1609 (1998).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Donachie, S. P., Bowman, J. P. & Alam, M. Psychroflexus tropicus sp. Nov., an obligately halophilic Cytophaga-Flavobacterium-Bacteroides group bacterium from an Hawaiian hypersaline lake. Int. J. Syst. Evol. Microbiol. 54, 935–940 (2004).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Zhong, Z. P. et al. Psychroflexus salis sp. Nov. and Psychroflexus planctonicus sp. Nov., isolated from a salt lake. Int. J. Syst. Evol. Microbiol. 66, 125–131 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Chun, J., Kang, J. Y. & Jahng, K. Y. Psychroflexus salarius sp. Nov., isolated from Gomso salt pan. Int. J. Syst. Evol. Microbiol. 64, 3467–3472 (2014).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Yoon, J. H., Kang, S. J., Jung, Y. T. & Oh, T. K. Psychroflexus salinarum sp. Nov., isolated from a marine solar saltern. Int. J. Syst. Evol. Microbiol. 59, 2404–2407 (2009).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Buzzini, P., Turchetti, B. & Yurkov, A. Extremophilic yeasts: The toughest yeasts around?. Yeast 35, 487–497 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Coleine, C., Stajich, J. E. & Selbmann, L. Fungi are key players in extreme ecosystems. Trends Ecol. Evol. S0169–5347(22), 00025–00028 (2022).
    Google Scholar 
    Gonçalves, V. N. et al. Taxonomy, phylogeny and ecology of cultivable fungi present in seawater gradients across the Northern Antarctica Peninsula. Extremophiles 21, 1005–1015 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Ogaki, M. B. et al. Cultivable fungi present in deep-sea sediments of Antarctica: Taxonomy, diversity, and bioprospecting of bioactive compounds. Extremophiles 24, 227–238 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Wedin, M., Döring, H. & Gilenstam, G. Saprotrophy and lichenization as options for the same fungal species on different substrata: Environmental plasticity and fungal lifestyles in the Stictis-Conotrema complex. New Phytol. 164, 459–465 (2004).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Sterflinger, K. Black yeasts and meristematic fungi: Ecology, diversity and identification. In Biodiversity and Ecophysiology of Yeasts. The Yeast Handbook (eds Péter, G. & Rosa, C.) 501–514 (Springer, 2006).Chapter 

    Google Scholar 
    Canini, F. et al. Growth forms and functional guilds distribution of soil Fungi in coastal versus inland sites of Victoria Land, Antarctica. Biology (Basel) 10, 320 (2021).
    Google Scholar 
    Vaniman, D. T. et al. Magnesium sulfate salts and the history of water on Mars. Nature 431, 663–665 (2004).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Gendrin, A. et al. Sulfates in martian layered terrains: The OMEGA/Mars Express view. Science 307, 1587–1591 (2005).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Carr, M. H. & Head, J. W. I. I. I. Geologic history of Mars. Earth Planet Sci. Lett. 294, 185–203 (2010).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Ojha, L. et al. Spectral evidence for hydrated salts in recurring slope lineae on Mars. Nat. Geosci. 8, 829–832 (2015).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Cragin, J. H., Gow, A. J. & Kovacs, A. Chemical fractionation of brine in the McMurdo Ice Shelf, Antarctica. CRREL Rep. 20, 83–86 (1983).
    Google Scholar 
    Frank, T. D. & Gui, Z. Cryogenic origin for brine in the subsurface of southern McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Geology 38(7), 587–590. https://doi.org/10.1130/G30849.1 (2010).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Gardner, C. B. & Lyons, W. B. Modeled geochemical composition of cryogenically produced subglacial Brines, Antarctica. Antarct. Sci. 31(3), 165–166 (2019).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Lyons, W. B. et al. Halogen geochemistry of the McMurdo Dry Valleys lakes, Antarctica: Clues to the origin of solutes and lake evolution. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 69, 305–323 (2005).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Armienti, P. & Baroni, C. Cenozoic climatic change in Antarctica recorded by volcanic activity and landscape evolution. Geology 27(7), 617–620 (1999).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Di Nicola, L. et al. Multiple cosmogenic nuclides document complex Pleistocene exposure history of glacial drifts in Terra Nova Bay (northern Victoria Land, Antarctica). Quatern. Res. 71(1), 83–92 (2009).Article 
    ADS 
    MathSciNet 

    Google Scholar 
    Levy, R. et al. Late Neogene climate and glacial history of the Southern Victoria Land coast from integrated drill core, seismic and outcrop data. Glob. Planet. Change 80–81, 61–84 (2012).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Prebble, J. G., Raine, J. I., Barrett, P. J. & Hannah, M. J. Vegetation and climate from two Oligocene glacioeustatic sedimentary cycles (31 and 24 Ma) cored by the Cape Roberts Project, Victoria Land Basin, Antarctica. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol. 231, 41–57 (2006).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Tedersoo, L. et al. Shotgun metagenomes and multiple primer pair barcode combinations of amplicons reveal biases in metabarcoding analyses of fungi. Myco Keys 10, 1–43 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Andrews, S. FastQC: A quality control tool for high throughput sequence data. http://www.bioinformatics.babraham.ac.uk/projects/fastqc. (2010).Bolyen, E. et al. Reproducible, interactive, scalable and extensible microbiome data science using QIIME 2. Nat. Biotechnol. 37, 852–857. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41587-019-0209-9 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Callahan, B. J. et al. DADA2: High-resolution sample inference from Illumina amplicon data. Nat. Methods 13, 581–583. https://doi.org/10.1038/nmeth.3869 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Nilsson, R. H. et al. The UNITE database for molecular identification of fungi: Handling dark taxa and parallel taxonomic classifications. Nucleic Acids Res 47, D259–D264. https://doi.org/10.1093/nar/gky1022 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar  More

  • in

    Limits on phenological response to high temperature in the Arctic

    Berner, L. T. et al. Summer warming explains widespread but not uniform greening in the Arctic tundra biome. Nat. Commun. 11, 4621 (2020).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Elmendorf, S. C. et al. Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 453–457 (2012).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Overland, J. E. et al. Surface air temperature. In Arctic Report Card: Update for 2019 (eds Richter-Menge, J. et al.) (U.S. National Park Service, 2020).
    Google Scholar 
    Post, E., Steinman, B. A. & Mann, M. E. Acceleration of phenological advance and warming with latitude over the past century. Sci. Rep. 8, 3927 (2018).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Diepstraten, R. A. E., Jessen, T. D., Fauvelle, C. M. D. & Musiani, M. M. Does climate change and plant phenology research neglect the Arctic tundra?. Ecosphere 9, e02362 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Flynn, D. F. B. & Wolkovich, E. M. Temperature and photoperiod drive spring phenology across all species in a temperate forest community. New Phytol. 219, 1353–1362 (2018).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Billings, W. D. & Bliss, L. C. An alpine snowbank environment and its effects on vegetation, plant development, and productivity. Ecology 40, 388–397 (1959).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Billings, W. D. & Mooney, H. A. The ecology of arctic and alpine plants. Biol. Rev. 43, 481–529 (1968).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Sørensen, T. Temperature relations and phenology of the northeast Greenland flowering plants. Meddr Gronland 1–305 (1941).Barrett, R. T. & Hollister, R. D. Arctic plants are capable of sustained responses to long-term warming. Polar Res. 35, 25405 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Julitta, T. et al. Using digital camera images to analyse snowmelt and phenology of a subalpine grassland. Agric. For. Meteorol. 198–199, 116–125 (2014).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Petraglia, A. et al. Responses of flowering phenology of snowbed plants to an experimentally imposed extreme advanced snowmelt. Plant Ecol. 215, 759–768 (2014).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Semenchuk, P. R. et al. High Arctic plant phenology is determined by snowmelt patterns but duration of phenological periods is fixed: An example of periodicity. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 125006 (2016).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Hollister, R. D., Webber, P. J. & Bay, C. Plant response to temperature in northern Alaska: Implications for predicting vegetation change. Ecology 86, 1562–1570 (2005).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Oberbauer, S. et al. Phenological response of tundra plants to background climate variation tested using the International Tundra Experiment. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 368, 20120481 (2013).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Tieszen, L. L. Photosynthesis in the principal Barrow, Alaska, species: A summary of field and laboratory responses. In Vegetation and Production Ecology of an Alaskan Arctic Tundra (ed. Tieszen, L. L.) 241–268 (Springer, 1978).Chapter 

    Google Scholar 
    Körner, Ch. CO2 exchange in the alpine sedge Carex curvula as influenced by canopy structure, light and temperature. Oecologia 53, 98–104 (1982).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Tieszen, L. L. Photosynthesis and respiration in arctic tundra grasses: Field light intensity and temperature responses. Arct. Alp. Res. 5, 239–251 (1973).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Huang, M. et al. Air temperature optima of vegetation productivity across global biomes. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 772–779 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Marchand, F. L., Mertens, S., Kockelbergh, F., Beyens, L. & Nijs, I. Performance of high arctic tundra plants improved during but deteriorated after exposure to a simulated extreme temperature event. Glob. Change Biol. 11, 2078–2089 (2005).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Yan, W. An equation for modelling the temperature response of plants using only the cardinal temperatures. Ann. Bot. 84, 607–614 (1999).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Zhou, G. & Wang, Q. A new nonlinear method for calculating growing degree days. Sci. Rep. 8, 10149 (2018).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Kramer, K. Selecting a model to predict the onset of growth of Fagus sylvatica. J. Appl. Ecol. 31, 172 (1994).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Nakano, Y., Higuchi, Y., Sumitomo, K. & Hisamatsu, T. Flowering retardation by high temperature in chrysanthemums: Involvement of FLOWERING LOCUS T-like 3 gene repression. J. Exp. Bot. 64, 909–920 (2013).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    del Olmo, I., Poza-Viejo, L., Piñeiro, M., Jarillo, J. A. & Crevillén, P. High ambient temperature leads to reduced FT expression and delayed flowering in Brassica rapa via a mechanism associated with H2A.Z dynamics. Plant J. 100, 343–356 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Wolkovich, E. M. et al. Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change. Nature 485, 494 (2012).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Hollister, R. D. et al. A review of open top chamber (OTC) performance across the ITEX Network. Arct. Sci. https://doi.org/10.1139/AS-2022-0030 (2022).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Bütikofer, L. et al. The problem of scale in predicting biological responses to climate. Glob. Change Biol. 26, 6657–6666 (2020).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Gu, S. Growing degree hours—A simple, accurate, and precise protocol to approximate growing heat summation for grapevines. Int. J. Biometeorol. 60, 1123–1134 (2016).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Roltsch, W. J., Zalom, F. G., Strawn, A. J., Strand, J. F. & Pitcairn, M. J. Evaluation of several degree-day estimation methods in California climates. Int. J. Biometeorol. 42, 169–176 (1999).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Richardson, A. D. et al. Ecosystem warming extends vegetation activity but heightens vulnerability to cold temperatures. Nature 560, 368–371 (2018).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Ettinger, A. K., Buonaiuto, D. M., Chamberlain, C. J., Morales-Castilla, I. & Wolkovich, E. M. Spatial and temporal shifts in photoperiod with climate change. New Phytol. 230, 462–474 (2021).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Seyednasrollah, B., Swenson, J. J., Domec, J.-C. & Clark, J. S. Leaf phenology paradox: Why warming matters most where it is already warm. Remote Sens. Environ. 209, 446–455 (2018).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Breshears, D. D. et al. Underappreciated plant vulnerabilities to heat waves. New Phytol. 231, 32–39 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Chaudhry, S. & Sidhu, G. P. S. Climate change regulated abiotic stress mechanisms in plants: A comprehensive review. Plant Cell Rep. 41, 1–31 (2022).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Sun, X. et al. Global diurnal temperature range (DTR) changes since 1901. Clim. Dyn. 52, 3343–3356 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Ballinger, T. J. NOAA Arctic Report Card 2021: Surface Air Temperature. https://doi.org/10.25923/53XD-9K68 (2021).Jagadish, S. V. K., Way, D. A. & Sharkey, T. D. Plant heat stress: Concepts directing future research. Plant Cell Environ. 44, 1992–2005 (2021).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Gilmore, E. C. Jr. & Rogers, J. S. Heat units as a method of measuring maturity in corn. Agron. J. 50, 611–615 (1958).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Sánchez, B., Rasmussen, A. & Porter, J. R. Temperatures and the growth and development of maize and rice: A review. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 408–417 (2014).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Molitor, D., Junk, J., Evers, D., Hoffmann, L. & Beyer, M. A high-resolution cumulative degree day-based model to simulate phenological development of grapevine. Am. J. Enol. Vitic. 65, 72–80 (2014).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    CaraDonna, P. J., Iler, A. M. & Inouye, D. W. Shifts in flowering phenology reshape a subalpine plant community. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 111, 4916–4921 (2014).Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Inouye, B. D., Ehrlén, J. & Underwood, N. Phenology as a process rather than an event: From individual reaction norms to community metrics. Ecol. Monogr. 89, e01352 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Miles, W. T. S. et al. Quantifying full phenological event distributions reveals simultaneous advances, temporal stability and delays in spring and autumn migration timing in long-distance migratory birds. Glob. Change Biol. 23, 1400–1414 (2017).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Moussus, J.-P., Julliard, R. & Jiguet, F. Featuring 10 phenological estimators using simulated data. Methods Ecol. Evol. 1, 140–150 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Dowle, M. & Srinivasan, A. data.table: Extension of ‘data.frame’ (2019).Auguie, B. egg: Extensions for ‘ggplot2’: Custom Geom, Custom Themes, Plot Alignment, Labelled Panels, Symmetric Scales, and Fixed Panel Size (2019).Wood, S. & Scheipl, F. gamm4: Generalized Additive Mixed Models using ‘mgcv’ and ‘lme4’ (2020).Auguie, B. gridExtra: Miscellaneous Functions for ‘Grid’ Graphics (2017).Hamner, B. & Frasco, M. Metrics: Evaluation Metrics for Machine Learning (2018).Gilli, M., Maringer, D. & Schumann, E. Numerical Methods and Optimization in Finance (Elsevier/Academic Press, 2019).MATH 

    Google Scholar 
    Garnier, S. viridis: Default Color Maps from ‘matplotlib’ (2018).Wickham, H. et al. Welcome to the Tidyverse. J. Open Source Softw. 4, 1686 (2019).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar  More

  • in

    Measuring the world’s cropland area

    Potapov, P. et al. Global maps of cropland extent and change show accelerated cropland expansion in the twenty-first century. Nat. Food 3, 19–28 (2022).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Land Use Statistics and Indicators. Global, Regional and Country Trends 2000–2020 FAOSTAT Analytical Brief Series No 48 https://www.fao.org/food-agriculture-statistics/data-release/data-release-detail/en/c/1599856/ (FAO, 2022).FAO. Land Statistics. Global, Regional and Country Trends, 1990–2018 FAOSTAT Analytical Brief Series No. 15 https://www.fao.org/3/cb2860en/cb2860en.pdf (FAO, 2021).Summary for policymakers in: Special Report on Climate Change and Land (eds Shukla, P. R. et al.) https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/4/2020/02/SPM_Updated-Jan20.pdf (WMO, in the press).Sustainable Development Goals Indicator 2.4.1 (FAO, accessed); https://www.fao.org/sustainable-development-goals/indicators/241/en/Eggleston, H. S., Buendia, L., Miwa, K., Ngara, T. & Tanabe, K. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IGES, 2006).Grassi, G. et al. Carbon fluxes from land 2000–2020: bringing clarity on countries’ reporting. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 14, 4643–4666 (2022).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Tubiello, F. N. et al. Measuring Progress Towards Sustainable Agriculture FAO Statistical Working Papers Series No. 21–24 https://www.fao.org/3/cb4549en/cb4549en.pdf (FAO, 2021).Conchedda, G. & Tubiello, F. N. Drainage of organic soils and GHG emissions: validation with country data. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 12, 3113–3137 (2020).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Hanson, C., Mazur, E., Stolle, F., Davis, C. & Searchinger, T. 5 takeaways on cropland expansion and what it means for people and the planet. WRI Insights https://www.wri.org/insights/cropland-expansion-impacts-people-planet (2022).Potapov, P. et al. The Global 2000–-2020 land cover and land use change dataset derived from the Landsat archive: first results. Front. Remote Sens. 3, 856903 (2022).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Hansen, M. C. et al. Global land use extent and dispersion within natural land cover using Landsat data. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 034050 (2022).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Tubiello, F. N. et al. Carbon emissions and removals from forests: new estimates, 1990–2020. Earth Syst. Sci. Data. 13, 1681–1691 (2021).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar  More

  • in

    Terrestrial invasive species alter marine vertebrate behaviour

    Polis, G. A., Anderson, W. B. & Holt, R. D. Toward an integration of landscape and food web ecology: the dynamics of spatially subsidized food webs. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 28, 289–316 (1997).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Doughty, C. E. et al. Global nutrient transport in a world of giants. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 868–873 (2016).Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    Burpee, B. T. & Saros, J. E. Cross-ecosystem nutrient subsidies in Arctic and alpine lakes: implications of global change for remote lakes. Environ. Sci. 22, 1166–1189 (2020).CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Gallardo, B., Clavero, M., Sánchez, M. I. & Vilà, M. Global ecological impacts of invasive species in aquatic ecosystems. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 151–163 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Justino, D. G., Maruyama, P. K. & Oliveira, P. E. Floral resource availability and hummingbird territorial behaviour on a Neotropical savanna shrub. J. Ornithol. 153, 189–197 (2012).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Van Overveld, T. et al. Food predictability and social status drive individual resource specializations in a territorial vulture. Sci. Rep. 8, 15155 (2018).Gunn, R. L., Hartley, I. R., Algar, A. C., Nadiarti, N. & Keith, S. A. Variation in the behaviour of an obligate corallivore is influenced by resource availability. Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00265-022-03132-6 (2022).Keith, S. A. et al. Synchronous behavioural shifts in reef fishes linked to mass coral bleaching. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 986–991 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Davies, N. B. & Hartley, I. R. Food patchiness, territory overlap and social systems: an experiment with dunnocks Prunella modularis. J. Anim. Ecol. 65, 837–846 (1996).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Cahill, A. E. et al. How does climate change cause extinction? Proc. R. Soc. B 280, 20121890 (2013).Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    Delarue, P. E. M., Kerr, S. E. & Rymer, T. L. Habitat complexity, environmental change and personality: a tropical perspective. Behav. Process. 120, 101–110 (2015).Stimson, J. The role of the territory in the ecology of the intertidal limpet Lottia gigantea (Gray). Ecology 54, 1020–1030 (1973).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Sells, S. N. & Mitchell, M. S. The economics of territory selection. Ecol. Modell. 438, 109329 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Graf, P. M., Mayer, M., Zedrosser, A., Hackländer, K. & Rosell, F. Territory size and age explain movement patterns in the Eurasian beaver. Mamm. Biol. 81, 587–594 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Simon, C. The influence of food abundance on territory size in the Iguanid lizard Sceloporus jarrovi. Ecology 56, 993–998 (1975).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Ippi, S., Cerón, G., Alvarez, L. M., Aráoz, R. & Blendinger, P. G. Relationships among territory size, body size, and food availability in a specialist river duck. Emu 118, 293–303 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Berumen, M. L. & Pratchett, M. S. Effects of resource availability on the competitive behaviour of butterflyfishes (Chaetodontidae). In Proc. 10th International Coral Reef Symposium 644–650 (ReefBase, 2006); http://reefbase.org/resource_center/publication/icrs.aspx?icrs=ICRS10Brown, J. L. The evolution of diversity in avian territorial systems. Wilson Bull. 76, 160–169 (1964).
    Google Scholar 
    Peiman, K. S. & Robinson, B. W. Ecology and evolution of resource-related heterospecific aggression. Q. Rev. Biol. 85, 133–158 (2010).Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    Grant, J. W. A., Girard, I. L., Breau, C. & Weir, L. K. Influence of food abundance on competitive aggression in juvenile convict cichlids. Anim. Behav. 63, 323–330 (2002).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Duda, M. P. et al. Long-term changes in terrestrial vegetation linked to shifts in a colonial seabird population. Ecosystems 23, 1643–1656 (2020).Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar 
    Graham, N. A. J. et al. Seabirds enhance coral reef productivity and functioning in the absence of invasive rats. Nature 559, 250–253 (2018).Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    Jones, H. P. et al. Severity of the effects of invasive rats on seabirds: a global review. Conserv. Biol. 22, 16–26 (2008).Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    Honig, S. E. & Mahoney, B. Evidence of seabird guano enrichment on a coral reef in Oahu, Hawaii. Mar. Biol. 163, 22 (2016).Benkwitt, C. E., Gunn, R. L., Le Corre, M., Carr, P. & Graham, N. A. J. Rat eradication restores nutrient subsidies from seabirds across terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Curr. Biol. 31, 2704–2711.e4 (2021).Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    Savage, C. Seabird nutrients are assimilated by corals and enhance coral growth rates. Sci. Rep. 9, 4284 (2019).Benkwitt, C. E., Wilson, S. K. & Graham, N. A. J. Seabird nutrient subsidies alter patterns of algal abundance and fish biomass on coral reefs following a bleaching event. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 2619–2632 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Benkwitt, C. E., Taylor, B. M., Meekan, M. G. & Graham, N. A. J. Natural nutrient subsidies alter demographic rates in a functionally important coral-reef fish. Sci. Rep. 11, 12575 (2021).Benkwitt, C. E., Wilson, S. K. & Graham, N. A. J. Biodiversity increases ecosystem functions despite multiple stressors on coral reefs. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 4, 919–926 (2020).Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    Robles, H. & Martin, K. Resource quantity and quality determine the inter-specific associations between ecosystem engineers and resource users in a cavity-nest web. PLoS ONE 8, e74694 (2013).Catano, L. B., Gunn, B. K., Kelley, M. C. & Burkepile, D. E. Predation risk, resource quality, and reef structural complexity shape territoriality in a coral reef herbivore. PLoS ONE 10, e0118764 (2015).Wilcox, K. A., Wagner, M. A. & Reynolds, J. D. Salmon subsidies predict territory size and habitat selection of an avian insectivore. PLoS ONE 16, e0254314 (2021).Frost, S. K. & Frost, P. G. H. Territoriality and changes in resource use by sunbirds at Leonotis leonurus (Labiatae). Oecologia 45, 109–116 (1980).Maynard Smith, J. Evolution and the Theory of Games (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1982).Book 

    Google Scholar 
    Dochtermann, N. A., Schwab, T., Anderson Berdal, M., Dalos, J. & Royauté, R. The heritability of behavior: a meta-analysis. J. Hered. 110, 403–410 (2019).Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    Sheppard, C. R. C. et al. Reefs and islands of the Chagos Archipelago, Indian Ocean: why it is the world’s largest no-take marine protected area. Aquat. Conserv. 22, 232–261 (2012).Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar 
    Soeparno, Y. N., Shibuno, T. & Yamaoka, K. Relationship between pelagic larval duration and abundance of tropical fishes on temperate coasts of Japan. J. Fish. Biol. 80, 346–357 (2012).Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    Green, A. L. et al. Larval dispersal and movement patterns of coral reef fishes, and implications for marine reserve network design. Biol. Rev. 90, 1215–1247 (2015).Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar 
    Dall, S. R. X., Houston, A. I. & McNamara, J. M. The behavioural ecology of personality: consistent individual differences from an adaptive perspective. Ecol. Lett. 7, 734–739 (2004).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Klumpp, D., McKinnon, D. & Daniel, P. Damselfish territories: zones of high productivity on coral reefs. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 40, 41–51 (1987).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Carr, P. et al. Status and phenology of breeding seabirds and a review of important bird and biodiversity areas in the British Indian Ocean Territory. Bird Conserv. Int. 31, 14–34 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Hoey, A. S. & Bellwood, D. R. Damselfish territories as a refuge for macroalgae on coral reefs. Coral Reefs 29, 107–118 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Samways, M. J. Breakdown of butterflyfish (Chaetodontidae) territories associated with the onset of a mass coral bleaching event. Aquat. Conserv. 15, 101–107 (2005).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Morgan, I. E. & Kramer, D. L. Determinants of social organization in a coral reef fish, the blue tang, Acanthurus coeruleus. Environ. Biol. Fishes 72, 443–453 (2005).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Ceccarelli, D. M. Modification of benthic communities by territorial damselfish: a multi-species comparison. Coral Reefs 26, 853–866 (2007).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Gochfeld, D. J. Territorial damselfishes facilitate survival of corals by providing an associational defense against predators. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 398, 137–148 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Gordon, T. A. C., Cowburn, B. & Sluka, R. D. Defended territories of an aggressive damselfish contain lower juvenile coral density than adjacent non-defended areas on Kenyan lagoon patch reefs. Coral Reefs 34, 13–16 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Hays, G. C. et al. A review of a decade of lessons from one of the world’s largest MPAs: conservation gains and key challenges. Mar. Biol. 167, 159–167 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Nanninga, G. B., Côté, I. M., Beldade, R. & Mills, S. C. Behavioural acclimation to cameras and observers in coral reef fishes. Ethology 123, 705–711 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Polunin, N. V. C. & Klumpp, D. W. Ecological correlates of foraging periodicity in herbivorous reef fishes of the Coral Sea. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 126, 1–20 (1989).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Friard, O. & Gamba, M. BORIS: a free, versatile open-source event-logging software for video/audio coding and live observations. Methods Ecol. Evol. 7, 1325–1330 (2016).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Paola, V. D., Vullioud, P., Demarta, L., Alwany, M. A. & Ros, A. F. H. Factors affecting interspecific aggression in a year-round territorial species, the jewel damselfish. Ethology 118, 721–732 (2012).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2019).Bürkner, P. brms: an R package for Bayesian multilevel models using Stan. J. Stat. Soft. 80, 1–28 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    RStan: the R interface to Stan. R package version 2.21.5 (Stan Development Team, 2022).Hadfield, J. D. MCMC methods for multi-response generalized linear mixed models: the MCMCglmm R package. J. Stat. Soft. 33, 1–22 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Gelman, A. & Rubin, D. B. Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences. Stat. Sci. 7, 457–472 (1992).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Vehtari, A., Gelman, A., Simpson, D., Carpenter, B. & Burkner, P. C. Rank-normalization, folding, and localization: an improved (formula presented) for assessing convergence of MCMC (with Discussion). Bayesian Anal. 16, 667–718 (2021).Vehtari, A., Gelman, A. & Gabry, J. Practical Bayesian model evaluation using leave-one-out cross-validation and WAIC. Stat. Comput. 27, 1413–1432 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar  More

  • in

     Restoration and coral adaptation delay, but do not prevent, climate-driven reef framework erosion of an inshore site in the Florida Keys

    De Goeij, J. M. et al. Surviving in a marine desert: The sponge loop retains resources within coral reefs. Science 80(342), 108–110 (2013).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Graham, N. A. J. & Nash, K. L. The importance of structural complexity in coral reef ecosystems. Coral Reefs 32, 315–326 (2013).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Perry, C. T. et al. Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level. Nature 558, 396–400 (2018).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Enochs, I. C. & Manzello, D. P. Responses of cryptofaunal species richness and trophic potential to coral reef habitat degradation. Diversity 4, 94–104 (2012).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Newman, S. P. et al. Reef flattening effects on total richness and species responses in the Caribbean. J. Anim. Ecol. 84, 1678–1689 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Ferrario, F. et al. The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation. Nat. Commun. 5, 1–9 (2014).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Storlazzi, C. D. et al. Rigorously valuing the potential coastal hazard risk reduction provided by coral reef restoration in Florida and Puerto Rico. U.S. Geol. Surv. 2, 1–24 (2021).
    Google Scholar 
    Cornwall, C. E. et al. Global declines in coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification and warming. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2015265118 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Ries, J. B., Cohen, A. L. & McCorkle, D. C. Marine calcifiers exhibit mixed responses to CO2-induced ocean acidification. Geology 37, 1131–1134 (2009).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Achlatis, M. et al. Sponge bioerosion on changing reefs: Ocean warming poses physiological constraints to the success of a photosymbiotic excavating sponge. Sci. Rep. 7, 1–13 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Perry, C. T. & Alvarez-Filip, L. Changing geo-ecological functions of coral reefs in the Anthropocene. Funct. Ecol. 33, 976–988 (2019).
    Google Scholar 
    Manzello, D. P., Enochs, I. C., Kolodziej, G. & Carlton, R. Recent decade of growth and calcification of Orbicella faveolata in the Florida Keys: An inshore-offshore comparison. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 521, 81–89 (2015).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    de Bakker, D. M., van Duyl, F. C., Perry, C. T. & Meesters, E. H. Extreme spatial heterogeneity in carbonate accretion potential on a Caribbean fringing reef linked to local human disturbance gradients. Glob. Chang. Biol. 25, 4092–4104 (2019).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Wisshak, M., Schönberg, C. H. L., Form, A. & Freiwald, A. Ocean acidification accelerates reef bioerosion. PLoS ONE 7, e45124 (2012).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Webb, A. E. et al. Combined effects of experimental acidification and eutrophication on reef sponge bioerosion rates. Front. Mar. Sci. 4, 311 (2017).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Perry, C. T. et al. Estimating rates of biologically driven coral reef framework production and erosion: A new census-based carbonate budget methodology and applications to the reefs of Bonaire. Coral Reefs 31, 853–868 (2012).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Molina-Hernández, A., González-Barrios, F. J., Perry, C. T. & Álvarez-Filip, L. Two decades of carbonate budget change on shifted coral reef assemblages: Are these reefs being locked into low net budget states?: Caribbean reefs carbonate budget trends. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 287, 20202305 (2020).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Toth, L. T., Courtney, T. A., Colella, M. A., Kupfner, S. A. & Robert, J. The past, present, and future of coral reef growth in the Florida Keys. Glob. Change Biol. 28(17), 5294–5309. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16295 (2022).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Perry, C. T. et al. Caribbean-wide decline in carbonate production threatens coral reef growth. Nat. Commun. 4, 1402–1407 (2013).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Enochs, I. C. et al. Ocean acidification enhances the bioerosion of a common coral reef sponge: Implications for the persistence of the Florida Reef Tract. Bull. Mar. Sci. 91, 271–290 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Bellwood, D. R. et al. Coral reef conservation in the Anthropocene: Confronting spatial mismatches and prioritizing functions. Biol. Conserv. 236, 604–615 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J. A., Liu, Y. & Lee, S. K. Downscaled projections of Caribbean coral bleaching that can inform conservation planning. Glob. Chang. Biol. 21, 3389–3401 (2015).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Pandolfi, J. M., Connolly, S. R., Marshall, D. J. & Cohen, A. L. Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification. Science 80(333), 418 (2011).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Teneva, L. et al. Predicting coral bleaching hotspots: The role of regional variability in thermal stress and potential adaptation rates. Coral Reefs 31, 1–12 (2012).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Albright, R., Langdon, C. & Anthony, K. R. N. Dynamics of seawater carbonate chemistry, production, and calcification of a coral reef flat, central great Barrier Reef. Biogeosciences 10, 6747–6758 (2013).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J. A., Manzello, D. & Planes, S. Opposite latitudinal gradients in projected ocean acidification and bleaching impacts on coral reefs. Glob. Chang. Biol. 20, 103–112 (2014).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Van Hooidonk, R. et al. Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the paris agreement. Sci. Rep. 6, 1–8 (2016).
    Google Scholar 
    Lee, J.-Y. et al. (2021) Future global climate: Scenario-based projections and near-term information supplementary material climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group i to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.006McCulloch, M., Falter, J., Trotter, J. & Montagna, P. Coral resilience to ocean acidification and global warming through pH up-regulation. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2, 623–627 (2012).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Okazaki, R. R. et al. Species-specific responses to climate change and community composition determine future calcification rates of Florida Keys reefs. Glob. Chang. Biol. 23, 1023–1035 (2017).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Kornder, N. A., Riegl, B. M. & Figueiredo, J. Thresholds and drivers of coral calcification responses to climate change. Glob. Chang. Biol. 24, 5084–5095 (2018).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J. A. & Planes, S. Temporary refugia for coral reefs in a warming world. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 508–511 (2013).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Logan, C. A., Dunne, J. P., Eakin, C. M. & Donner, S. D. Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching. Glob. Chang. Biol. 20, 125–139 (2014).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Kennedy, E. V. et al. Avoiding coral reef functional collapse requires local and global action. Curr. Biol. 23, 912–918 (2013).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Ruzicka, R. R. et al. Temporal changes in benthic assemblages on Florida Keys reefs 11 years after the 1997/1998 El Niño. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 489, 125–141 (2013).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Manzello, D. P., Enochs, I. C., Kolodziej, G., Carlton, R. & Valentino, L. Resilience in carbonate production despite three coral bleaching events in 5 years on an inshore patch reef in the Florida Keys. Mar. Biol. 165, 1–11 (2018).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Gintert, B. E. et al. Marked annual coral bleaching resilience of an inshore patch reef in the Florida Keys: A nugget of hope, aberrance, or last man standing?. Coral Reefs 37, 533–547 (2018).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Maynard, J. A., Anthony, K. R. N., Marshall, P. A. & Masiri, I. Major bleaching events can lead to increased thermal tolerance in corals. Mar. Biol. 155, 173–182 (2008).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Sampayo, E. M., Ridgway, T., Bongaerts, P. & Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Bleaching susceptibility and mortality of corals are determined by fine-scale differences in symbiont type. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 105, 10444–10449 (2008).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Silverstein, R. N., Correa, A. M. S. & Baker, A. C. Specificity is rarely absolute in coral–algal symbiosis: Implications for coral response to climate change. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 279, 2609–2618 (2012).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Barshis, D. J. et al. Genomic basis for coral resilience to climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 110, 1387–1392 (2013).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Voolstra, C. R. et al. Rapid evolution of coral proteins responsible for interaction with the environment. PLoS ONE 6(5), e20392 (2011).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Hughes, T. P. et al. Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages. Nature 556, 492–496 (2018).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Palumbi, S. R., Barshis, D. J., Traylor-Knowles, N. & Bay, R. A. Mechanisms of reef coral resistance to future climate change. Science 80(344), 895 (2014).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Tribollet, A., Chauvin, A. & Cuet, P. Carbonate dissolution by reef microbial borers: A biogeological process producing alkalinity under different pCO 2 conditions. Facies 65, 1–10 (2019).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Chaves-Fonnegra, A. et al. Bleaching events regulate shifts from corals to excavating sponges in algae-dominated reefs. Glob. Chang. Biol. 24, 773–785 (2018).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Enochs, I. C. et al. Upwelling and the persistence of coral-reef frameworks in the eastern tropical Pacific. Ecol. Monogr. 91, 1–16 (2021).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Van Westen, R. M. & Dijkstra, H. A. Ocean eddies strongly affect global mean sea-level projections. Sci. Adv. 7, 1–12 (2021).
    Google Scholar 
    DeMerlis, A. et al. Pre-exposure to a variable temperature treatment improves the response of Acropora cervicornis to acute thermal stress. Coral Reefs https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-022-02232-z (2022).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Webb, A. E. et al. Quantifying functional consequences of habitat degradation on a Caribbean coral reef. Biogeosciences 18, 6501–6516 (2021).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Silbiger, N. J. et al. Nutrient pollution disrupts key ecosystem functions on coral reefs. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 285, 2–10 (2018).
    Google Scholar 
    DeCarlo, T. M. et al. Coral macrobioerosion is accelerated by ocean acidification and nutrients. Geology 43, 7–10 (2015).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Wooldridge, S. A. Water quality and coral bleaching thresholds: Formalising the linkage for the inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef. Australia. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 58, 745–751 (2009).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016 (2016).O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K. & Ebi, K. L. A new scenario framework for climate change research : The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Clim. Change https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2 (2014).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    O’Neill, B. C. et al. The scenario model intercomparison project ( ScenarioMIP ) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9(9), 3461–3482 (2018).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Towle, E. K. et al. (2021) National coral reef monitoring plan.Kuffner, I. B., Hickey, T. D. & Morrison, J. M. Calcification rates of the massive coral Siderastrea siderea and crustose coralline algae along the Florida Keys (USA) outer-reef tract. Coral Reefs 32, 987–997 (2013).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Manzello, D. P., Enochs, I. C., Kolodziej, G. & Carlton, R. Coral growth patterns of Montastraea cavernosa and Porites astreoides in the Florida Keys: The importance of thermal stress and inimical waters. J. Exp. Mar. Bio. Ecol. 471, 198–207 (2015).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Gattuso, J.P. et al. (2015) Package ‘ seacarb ’Donner, S. D., Skirving, W. J., Little, C. M., Oppenheimer, M. & Hoegh-Gulberg, O. Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change. Glob. Chang. Biol. 11, 2251–2265 (2005).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    van Hooidonk, R. & Huber, M. Quantifying the quality of coral bleaching predictions. Coral Reefs 28, 579–587 (2009).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    Yee, S. H. & Barron, M. G. Predicting coral bleaching in response to environmental stressors using 8 years of global-scale data. Environ. Monit. Assess. 161, 423–438 (2010).Article 

    Google Scholar 
    Liu, G., Strong, A. E. & Skirving, W. Remote sensing of sea surface temperatures during 2002 barrier reef coral bleaching (Eos, Washington, DC, 2003).Book 

    Google Scholar 
    van Hooidonk, R. et al. Projections of future coral bleaching conditions using IPCC CMIP6 models: Climate policy implications, management applications, and Regional Seas summaries. (2020).Kinsey, D. W. & Hopley, D. The significance of coral reefs as global carbon sinks-response to Greenhouse. Glob. Planet. Change 3, 363–377 (1991).Article 
    ADS 

    Google Scholar 
    van Westen, R. M. et al. Ocean model resolution dependence of Caribbean sea-level projections. Sci. Rep. 10, 1–11 (2020).
    Google Scholar  More