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Identification, phylogeny, and distribution of five phylaTo advance our understanding of marine sediment microbial diversity, we obtained over 30 billion paired DNA sequences from 42 marine sediment samples (coastal and deep sea) (Supplementary Data 1). From this, we reconstructed over 8000 ( >50% complete, 95%) to genes from coastal waters (Venezuela), a hypersaline pond in Carpinteria (US), sediments in Garolim Bay (Korea), and others (Supplementary Data 6 and 7). The worldwide distribution of these five phyla suggests that they have potentially overlooked ecological roles across many environments.Detection of novel protein familiesTo explore novel metabolic capabilities of these bacteria, we employed a recently described approach to identify and characterize unknown genes exclusive to uncultivated taxa17. Using this computational method, we identified 1,934 novel protein families (NPFs) and 6,893 novel singletons (NSs) in the 55 MAGs. The former can be define as families that do not show any homology in broadly used databases (including eggNOG, pfamA, pfamB, and RefSeq, see “Methods”) while the latter (NSs) are NPFs that are detected only once in each given genome or group of genomes. To determine if this novelty was specific to the five phyla or distributed across other uncultivated prokaryotic taxa, we mapped these NPFs and NSs against a comprehensive dataset of 169,642 bacterial and archaeal genomes covered in Rodriguez del Río et al.17. Using an in-house pipeline (Supplementary Fig. 4), we found that 44.6% of these NPFs and NSs are present in other uncultured taxa, highlighting the novel and undescribed metabolic repertoire that these five phyla share with other uncultured prokaryotic lineages17. Specifically, we found that these proteins are also present in Marinisomatota, Bacteroidota, and WOR-3 from publicly available genomes obtained from both marine and terrestrial environments17. When comparing the total number of NPFs per genome in the novel bacterial phyla against the genomic dataset (approximately 170,000 genomes), we found that the novel taxa described in this study have a higher than average percentage of novel proteins per genome (5.68 ± 4.89%) (p  0.7) and widespread (coverage > 0.7) within each phylum are shown in dark purple bars. The number of novel protein families with conserved neighboring genes are shown in light gray bars. c, d, Selected examples of phylogenetic trees and novel protein family genomic context marked in gray with a black outline) in Blakebacterota and Arandabacterota. The protein families are similar between these two phyla and have conserved neighboring genes, including translation initiation factor IF-3 gene (infC), large subunit ribosomal protein L20 gene (rplT), phenylalanyl-tRNA synthetase genes (pheST), cell division protein gene (zapA), phosphodiesterase gene (ymdB), methenyltetrahydrofolate cyclohydrolase gene (folD), and exodeoxyribonuclease genes (xseAB). e Phylogenetic tree and genomic context of a novel protein family uniquely distributed in Joyebacterota. The novel protein family has conserved genomic neighbors related to energy conservation (Rnf complex genes, rnfABCDEG). The phylogeny was generated using FastTree2 and numbers on the top and bottom of the branch represent the bootstrap and branch length, respectively. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.Full size imageMetabolic pathways are often encoded by ‘genome neighborhoods’ (gene clusters and/or operons)18. Therefore, we calculated the genomic context conservation of the NPFs containing three or more sequences (3773 NPFs in total) and examined the annotation of genes found in genomic proximity of the NPFs to determine their potential function. Of the inspected families, 513 (14%) had a conservation score ≥ 0.9 (see “Methods”) indicating a high degree of conserved neighboring proteins. Manual annotation of these neighboring proteins indicated they are potentially involved in sulfur reduction, energy conservation, as well as the degradation of organics such as starch, fatty acids, and amino acids (highlighted in red in Supplementary Fig. 5). For example, a NPF predominantly found in Blakebacterota is neighbored by putative menaquinone reductases (QrcABCD), a conserved complex related to energy conservation in sulfate reducing bacteria19,20,21,22. However, metabolic annotations of Blakebacterota genomes that encode QrcABCD indicate that they largely lack the key enzymes for sulfate reduction, dissimilatory sulfite reductases (DsrABC), suggesting this QrcABCD complex may be involved in other bioenergetic contexts such as linking periplasmic hydrogen and formate oxidation to the menaquinone pool22.In some instances, we found NPFs coded near genes predicted to produce key proteins in nitrogen cycling. Two of the Joyebacterota MAGs code NPF neighboring proteins with homology to hydroxylamine dehydrogenases (HAO). HAO is a key enzyme in marine nitrogen cycling that has traditionally been thought to catalyze the oxidation of hydroxylamine (NH2OH) to nitrite (NO2−) in ammonia oxidizing bacteria. Recently, it has been suggested that HAO may also convert hydroxylamine to nitric oxide (NO) as an intermediate, which is then further oxidized to nitrite by an unknown mechanism. Hydroxylamine is also known to be an intermediate in the nitrogen cycle. It is a potential precursor of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas that is a byproduct of denitrification, nitrification23,24, and anaerobic ammonium oxidation25. The presence of HAO within the genomic context of these NPFs suggests they may be involved in mediating hydroxylamine metabolism, and thus may play an important role in nitrogen cycling.A number of NPFs are colocalized with genes predicted to be involved in the utilization of organic carbon. For example, one NPF found in Blakebacterota genomes is adjacent to a peptidase (PepQ; K01271) for dipeptide degradation. Another NPF, only detected in Blakebacterota, is neighbored by long-chain acyl-CoA synthetase (FadD; K01897), a key enzyme in fatty acid degradation (Supplementary Fig. 6). In Joyebacterota, as well as in publicly available Bacteroidetes and Latescibacteria we identified an NPF that is colocalized with amylo-alpha-1,6-glucosidase (Glycoside Hydrolase Family 57), suggesting a potential role in starch degradation.We also identified NPFs that are specific and very conserved in AABM5, Blakebacterota, Orphanbacterota, Arandabacterota, and Joyebacterota (2, 39, 3, 16, and 26 respectively). These NPFs were found in at least 70% of the MAGs belonging to each phylum, and rarely present in other genomes across the tree of life. Due to their unique nature, the 86 unique NPFs could be used as marker genes for future characterizations of the novel bacteria described in this study. When examining the genomic context of the phyla-specific NPFs, we found that more than half of the NPFs (49 of 86) shared the same gene order and are next to genes predicted to be involved in various catabolic and anabolic processes. For example, an NPF in Joyebacterota MAGs is adjacent to an Rnf complex26, which is important for energy conservation in numerous organisms21 (Fig. 2e). Also, two different NPFs in Blakebacterota and Arandabacterota MAGs were located next to tRNA synthesis genes (Fig. 2c, d). Additional phyla-specific NPFs were colocalized with genes predicted to be involved in other important processes, including peptidoglycan biosynthesis (Supplementary Fig. 6a), F-type ATPase (Supplementary Fig. 6b), acyl-CoA dehydrogenase, elements for transportation, sulfur assimilation (Supplementary Fig. 6c), and others (Supplementary Fig. 6d).Metabolic potential of the novel bacterial phylaIn addition to NPF-based analyses, we compared the predicted proteins in the novel lineages to a variety of databases and gene phylogenies to understand their metabolism (see “Methods”). The distribution of key metabolic proteins based on presence/absence of protein families (using MEBS: see methods) in the 61 MAGs is largely consistent with their phylogeny (Fig. 1a). Below, we detail the predicted metabolism of each novel bacterial phyla based on these analyses (Supplementary Fig. 5 and Supplementary Data 8 and 9, see details in Supplementary Information).JoyebacterotaJoyebacterota is composed of 20 MAGs predominantly reconstructed from hydrothermal vent sediments (blue, lower right side in the phylogeny shown in Fig. 1a). Metabolic inference suggests that these bacteria are obligate anaerobes encoding extracellular carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes) with the potential to degrade pectate or pectin, photosynthetically fixed carbon in marine diatoms, macrophytes27, and terrestrial plants28. Furthermore, Joyebacterota seems to be involved in the sulfur cycle. Seven Joyebacterota MAGs encode sulfide:quinone oxidoreductases (SQR). Phylogenetic analysis indicate these SQR belong to the membrane-bound type I and III29. Interestingly, these SQR type I sequences are closely related to those sequences mostly found in terrestrial environments, e.g., freshwater, soil, and hot spring, while SQR-III  have been previously suggested to play a key role maintaining the sulfide homeostasis or bioenergetics in deep-sea sediments30. The presence of these pathways highlight the potential adaptation of Joyebacterota to several environments, contributing to recycling of carbon and sulfur.BlakebacterotaThe Blakebacterota phylum is composed of 11 MAGs predominantly reconstructed from the surface layer of GB sediments (0–6 cm). In this environment, temperatures range from 25 to 29 °C, CH4 measures 0.4–0.8 mM, CO2 reaches up to 10 mM, and SO42− concentrations are high (up to 28 mM)30. Metabolic inference using MEBS31 suggests Blakebacterota play an important role in N and S cycles. These findings were supported by the presence of key enzymes in these cycles. For example, we identified a nitrous oxide reductase in Blakebacterota, the only known enzyme to catalyze the reduction of nitrous oxide to nitrogen gas. This reaction acts as a sink for nitrous oxide, and thus is an important removal mechanism for this potent greenhouse gas. In addition to nitrogen cycling, we identified key genes involved in sulfur cycling in Blakebacterota. Six of the MAGs possess genes that code for SQR with sulfate or nitrous oxide as the final electron accepter. In addition, seven of the MAGs contain genes for thiosulfate dehydrogenase (doxD), which may convert thiosulfate to tetrathionate. Finally, one MAG is predicted to produce dimethyl sulfide (DMS) under oxic conditions via methanethiol S-methyltransferase (MddA) from methylate L-methionine or methanethiol (MeSH). Thus, these bacteria may play important roles in a variety of intermediate steps in nitrogen and sulfur cycling.ArandabacterotaLike Joyebacterota, Arandabacterota were largely recovered from shallow (2–14 cm) GB and deep (26–38 cm) BS sediments. This phylum contains 11 MAGs that are predicted to be anaerobic polysulfide and elemental sulfur reducers. They may mediate sulfur reduction via sulfhydrogenases (HydGB), which results in the production of sulfide32,33. Thus, Arandabacterota may contribute to sulfur cycling in marine sediments. Arandabacterota also code distinct hydrogenases, [NiFe] 3c and 4g types, (Fig. 3) for H2 oxidation. In addition, Arandabacterota may reduce nitrite via periplasmic dissimilatory nitrite reductases (NrfAH) present in Meg22_24_Bin_129, BHB10-38_Bin_9, and SY70-4-3_Bin_59. This mechanism for energy conservation is more efficient than polysulfide and elemental sulfur reduction. Therefore, they are likely to use sulfur species as electron donors in the absence of nitrite.Fig. 3: Maximum likelihood phylogenetic tree of NiFe hydrogenases from the novel phyla.The majority of NiFe hydrogenases identified from the five phyla in this study are highlighted in the gray background. Most hydrogenases are types 4g and 3c. Starred branches denote the minor NiFe hydrogenases identified in this study. Bootstrap values ≥ 80 are shown in circles. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.Full size imageOrphanbacterotaOrphanbacterota is composed of seven MAGs that were mostly obtained from the BS, and appear to be metabolically versatile, facultative aerobes. The BS has an average water depth of 18 m and is strongly influenced by anthropogenic activities in China, mainly the terrestrial input of nutrients and organic matter34. Orphanbacterota code a diversity of CAZymes for the degradation of complex carbohydrates. We identified genes coding for extracellular glycoside hydrolase family 16 (GH16), which may be involved in the degradation of laminarin, releasing glucose and oligosaccharides35. Six Orphanbacterota genomes also contain genes predicted to produce extracellular peptidases belonging to family M28 and S8, which are nonspecific peptidases (Supplementary Fig. 7 and Supplementary Data 10–14). The released amino acids could be taken up via ABC transporters coded by these bacteria.Consistent with their recovery from shallow sediment habitats (Supplementary Data 1), Orphanbacterota have a diverse repertoire of terminal cytochrome oxidase genes (Supplementary Data 9) suggesting they are capable of surviving in a range of oxygen concentrations. Based on the presence of isocitrate lyase and malate synthase, they may use the glyoxylate cycle for carbohydrate synthesis when sugar is not available, or use simple two-carbon compounds for energy conservation36,37. They also appear capable of reducing nitrate to nitrite via periplasmic nitrate reductases (NapAB)38. Moreover, they could reduce nitrate via the membrane-bound nitrate reductase for energy conservation and reducing nitrous oxide.One Orphanbacterota genome (M3-44_Bin_119) has genes predicted to mediate sulfate/sulfite reduction, including DsrABC, QmoABC, and membrane bound Rnf complexes (Supplementary Fig. 8a, b and Supplementary Data 8 and 9). Another Orphanbacterota (LQ108M_Bin_12) is predicted to contain diverse metabolic pathways, including MmdA for DMS production, SQR for sulfide oxidation, the Rnf complex for energy conservation21 or detoxification (Supplementary Fig. 8c), and sulfhydrogenases (HydABDG) for H2 oxidation. In addition to energy conservation and detoxification, sulfide oxidation is important for preventing the loss of sulfur through H2S volatilization. This is predicted to be an important process in sulfur-rich sediments, where large quantities of the self-produced H2S are produced during heterotrophic growth29.AABM5AABM5 (12 genomes, 7 obtained in this study) is an understudied bacterial group that has largely been recovered from shallow (4–12 cm) sediments in GB and deep (44–62 cm) sediments in BS. Despite the distinct environments where they have been found, genomes within this phylum have several shared metabolic abilities. In contrast to the strict anaerobic lifestyle that was previously reported in a subgroup within AABM5 (candidate division LCP–89)12, we predict they are facultative anaerobes. In support of this, we identified cytochrome c oxidase (CtaDCEF) and cytochrome bd ubiquinol oxidase (CydAB) for aerobic respiration39. In addition, we identified DsrABC in nine genomes (Supplementary Fig. 8 and Supplementary Data 15), indicating these organisms can potentially reduce sulfate/sulfite for energy conservation. Several AABM5 genomes are predicted to use H2 as an electron donor due to the presence of type 3c [NiFe] hydrogenase (MvhADG) (Fig. 3, Supplementary Fig. 9, and Supplementary Data 8 and 9). The metabolic versatility in this phylum better explains their global distribution.Ecological significance of the new phylaThese previously overlooked bacterial phyla appear to be involved in key biogeochemical processes in marine sediments, namely sulfur and nitrogen cycling, and the degradation of organic carbon. However, we did not find any evidence for complete autotrophic metabolisms (Wood-Ljungdahl pathway, Calvin–Benson–Bassham, reductive tricarboxylic acid, 3-hydroxypropionate bicycle, 3-hydroxypropionate-4-hydroxybutyrate, and dicarboxylate-4-hydroxybutyrate cycles) in any of these bacteria. Instead, they have a variety of pathways for the utilization of organic compounds as detailed above. These novel bacteria phyla (all except Blakebacterota) have the potential to degrade the algal glycan laminarin, one of the most important complex carbon compounds in the ocean40. These novel phyla encode extracellular laminarinases that specifically cleave the laminarin into more readily degradable sugars, e.g., glucose and oligosaccharide (Supplementary Fig. 7 and Supplementary Data 10–12). Laminarin glycan is produced in the surface ocean by microalgae that sequester CO2 as an important carbon sink in the oceans41. This is a key process of the global carbon cycle, and most studies have focused on understanding aerobic laminarin-degrading bacteria in the surface oceans41,42. Recently, it has been shown that laminarin plays a prominent role in oceanic carbon export and energy flow to higher trophic levels and the deep ocean40, yet the organisms responsible for laminarin degradation under anoxic conditions are unknown. The discovery of  these novel bacterial phyla opens new doors for future studies exploring laminarin degradation in the deep sea. In addition, most of them contain genes predicted to code for sulfatases. Blakebacterota, Orphanbacterota, Arandabacterota, and Joyebacterota code for arylsulfatase, mainly arylsulfatase A, for desulfation of galactosyl moiety of sulfatide. They also code choline sulfatase, iduronate 2-sulfatase and some uncharacterized sulfatases for different types of substrates43. This suggests they are capable of cleaving organic sulfate ester bonds as a source of sulfur and organic carbon on the ocean floor.Many metabolic processes identified here, including pathways for polysaccharide degradation, sulfur, and nitrogen metabolism are often incomplete (Fig. 4). This may be due to the incompleteness of these genomes, or it suggests that these processes occur via metabolic handoffs within the community. Some of the phyla are capable of mediating a variety of sulfur and nitrogen redox reactions (Fig. 4a, b). For example, four phyla code DsrABC, suggesting they play an overlooked role in inorganic matter degradation in marine sediments through sulfate reduction. The resultant sulfide may be reoxidized to sulfur intermediates and organic sulfur compounds by these newly described bacteria. Four phyla (Blakebacterota, Orphanbacterota, Arandabacterota, and Joyebacterota) code an SQR for producing elemental sulfur from sulfide. Methanethiol S-methyltransferase (MddA) is predicted to be produced by individual MAGs Blakebacterota (M3-38_Bin_215) and Orphanbacterota (LQ108M_Bin_12) for the production of DMS from methionine44. DMS is important in climate regulation and sulfur cycling in marine environments45,46, though little is known about the fate or production of DMS in anoxic environments like marine sediments. As detailed above, Blakebacterota contains genes for the conversion of thiosulfate to tetrathionate. Four phyla (AABM5, Orphanbacterota, Arandabacterota, and Joyebacterota) are predicted to disproportionate thiosulfate to sulfite via thiosulfate/3-mercaptopyruvate sulfurtransferase. Thus, we suspect these bacteria may be capable of mediating intermediate sulfur species in anoxic environments. These results provide a predictive framework for future physiological studiesto confirm our genomic-based predictions.Fig. 4: Genomic-based predictions of the potential metabolic role of the novel bacterial phyla.Key steps in the (a) sulfur and (b) nitrogen cycles predicted in the five bacterial phyla. Compounds (in gray triangle frames) were arranged according to the standard Gibbs free energy of formation of each sulfur or nitrogen compound (values next to the compound taken from Caspi et al.93). Star, square, triangle, pentagon, and diamond shapes correspond to AABM5, Blakebacterota, Orphanbacterota, Arandabacterota and Joyebacterota, respectively. Colored shapes represent the presence of genes in a given pathway. Fully colored shapes indicate the presence of genes in over 50% of the phyla. Half colored shapes signify that less than 50% of the phyla code for those genes. Uncolored shapes indicate presence of genes in only one MAG. Note that only pathways encoded in at least one MAG are shown. The red dotted line indicates the assimilatory process. The blue soild line indicates the confirmed pathway with phylogeny of key genes. c Phylogenetic tree and genomic context of a novel protein family (NPF) next to putative menaquinone reductase complex genes (qrcABCD) found in Blakebacterota and Orphanbacterota. d Phylogenetic tree and genomic context of a NPF next to hydroxylamine oxidoreductase genes (hao) in Joyebacterota.Full size imageIn addition to potential roles in sulfur cycling, the phyla described here may play key roles in nitrogen processes, for example several MAGs contain genes that code predicted hydroxylamine dehydrogenase proteins (HAO, confirmed by different databases)47,48. HAO is a precursor of nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas and ozone destructing agent in the atmosphere. Marine N2O stems from nitrification and denitrification processes which depend on organic matter cycling and dissolved oxygen. Since hydroxylamine is a precursor of N2O, deciphering the organisms that can mediate the formation of N2O has important implications for Earth’s climate49. In addition, three phyla (AABM5, Blakebacterota, and Orphanbacterota) code for periplasmic and/or transmembrane nitrate reductase, and two phyla (AABM5 and Arandabacterota) are predicted to reduce nitrite via dissimilatory nitrite reductase.In recent years, there have been large advances in the exploration of novel microbial diversity. Genomic data has provided crucial insights into the ecological roles and biology of these new microbes. The recovery of bacterial genomes belonging to five overlooked, globally distributed phyla with considerably novel protein composition reminds us there is much to be learned about the microbial world. The identification of NPFs provides targets for future studies to elucidate the ecophysiology of these organisms. The presence of genes for organic carbon degradation and sulfur and nitrogen cycling in these new bacteria suggests they contribute to a variety of key processes in marine sediments. Thus, the addition of these bacterial genomes to ecosystem models will likely transform our understanding of how microbial communities drive carbon degradation and nutrient cycling in the oceans. More

Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity will meet this month to finalize the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework and the text for the stand-alone target on gender equality (Target 22). This target aims to reshape conservation policy and practice to make them more inclusive, equitable and effective.
Competing Interests
The authors declare no competing interests. More

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Pristine ecosystems such as mangrove forests protect against the effects of climate change.Credit: Karine Aigner/Nature Picture Library

The Paris climate agreement, signed in December 2015, ranks as one of the most momentous global treaties ever negotiated, setting a crucial goal to seek to limit warming to 1.5–2 °C above pre-industrial levels. At the time, the opening ceremony of the COP21 climate-change conference that led to the agreement also held the record for the largest number of world leaders ever to attend a United Nations event in a single day — more than 150. The two things are probably more than coincidence.Now biodiversity is hoping for its Paris moment. The long-delayed COP15 conference, starting on 7 December in Montreal, Canada, aims to seal a bold new international deal committing countries to precise targets to curb species loss and to protect and restore nature.Many factors suggest the time is ripe. The problem of biodiversity loss is more prominent than ever before. As ecologist Sandra Díaz wrote in Nature last week, researchers have assembled the strongest evidence base yet ahead of COP15, the Fifteenth Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (S. Díaz Nature 612, 9; 2022). Initiatives such as the Dasgupta Review, commissioned by the UK government, have made plain that the protection of biodiversity is an economic necessity.
COP15 biodiversity plan risks being alarmingly diluted
There is also much greater public awareness of how pollution and habitat destruction threaten the health of ecosystems on which we depend for food, clean water and disease prevention, and a better understanding of nature’s crucial role in mitigating climate change — for example, by storing carbon in soils and trees — as well as in helping us to adapt to its impacts. Mangrove forests, for instance, are hugely effective in stopping influxes of seawater from tsunamis and sea-level rise.But when it comes to getting stalled negotiations motoring again, the scale of support by world leaders that was a feature of climate’s road to Paris is currently lacking.Change cannot come too soon. Nature is on the brink. Of 20 decadal targets to preserve nature that were set in Aichi, Japan, in 2010, not a single one had been fully met by 2020. That, coupled with underfunding and lack of regard for the rights of Indigenous peoples who steward much of the world’s remaining biodiversity, means more species than ever are at risk of extinction. Serious impacts on human wealth and health from biodiversity loss loom ever larger. Yet over the past three years, four difficult rounds of negotiations aiming to agree on a framework to replace Aichi have not yielded results. Hundreds of issues remain unresolved.
COVID delays are frustrating the world’s plans to save biodiversity
Many experts worry that the lacklustre progress made at COP27, the climate summit held last month in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, augur badly for the biodiversity meeting. But there is also reason for hope. The agreement made at COP27 to establish a ‘loss and damage’ fund to compensate low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for climate impacts indicates that richer nations are open to talking about funding, which has also been a major sticking point in biodiversity negotiations.Global funding for biodiversity is severely in the red. A UN estimate published last week suggests that only US$154 billion per year flows to ‘nature-based solutions’ from all sources, including government aid and private investment — a number the UN says needs to triple by 2030. Many LMICs — which are home to much of the world’s remaining biodiversity — would like rich nations to put fresh finance into a new multilateral fund. One option is that such a fund could compensate LMICs for bio-diversity loss and associated damages driven by the consumption of products in rich nations through international trade.A second major sticking point is how to fairly and equitably share the benefits of digital sequence information — genetic data collected from plants, animals and other organisms. Communities in biodiversity-rich regions where genetic material is collected have little control over the commercialization of the data, and no way to recoup financial or other benefits. A multipurpose fund for bio-diversity could provide a simple and effective way to share the benefits of these data and support other conservation needs of LMICs.Another reason to hope for a breakthrough is the forthcoming change in Brazil’s leadership. Conservation organizations such as the wildlife charity WWF have accused the world’s most biodiverse nation of deliberately obstructing previous negotiations, holding up agreement on targets such as protecting at least 30% of the world’s land and seas by 2030. But Brazil’s incoming president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has signalled that the environment is one of his top priorities. Although he does not take over until January 2023, he is thought to be sending an interim team of negotiators to Montreal.
Crucial biodiversity summit will go ahead in Canada, not China: what scientists think
All negotiators face a Herculean task to get a deal over the line at COP15, with many issues in the text still unresolved and contested. What’s needed above all is global leadership to empower national negotiators to reach a strong deal, including a new fund of some kind for biodiversity. More than 90 heads of state and heads of government have signed a pledge to tackle the nature crisis. At the time of writing, only Justin Trudeau, the host nation’s prime minster, has confirmed that he is to attend in person.The no-shows send the wrong signal. It’s also true at the time of writing that neither Canada nor China — the original intended host of COP15 and still the meeting’s chair — has issued formal invitations. But leaders have regularly attended climate COPs for more than a decade. This shows in the ambition of climate agreements, if not in their implementation. Research communities and civil society must continue to pressure leaders to engage similarly with the biodiversity agenda. Otherwise, the world risks failing to grasp this opportunity to secure the kind of ambitious deal that nature — and humanity — desperately needs. More

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Fossil record of insectsWe compiled all species-level fossil occurrences of insects using https://paleobiodb.org/ (PBDB) as a starting point (downloaded October 12, 2021). The dataset obtained from PBDB contained initially 5808 occurrences for a period ranging from the Asselian to the Rhaetian. The dataset was cleaned of synonyms, outdated combinations, nomina dubia, and other erroneous and doubtful records, based on revisions provided in the literature and/or on the expertise of the authors. After correction, including data addition from the literature, our dataset was composed of 3636 species (1784 genera, and 418 families) for 17,250 occurrences resulting from an in-depth study and curation of the entire bibliography of fossil insects, spanning from the Asselian (lowermost Permian) to the Rhaetian (uppermost Triassic). Although most of the taxa included in the datasets are nominal taxa (published and named), a few unnamed taxa (genera or species) that are considered separate from others were also included, although not formally named in the literature or not published yet. These unpublished taxa are identifiable by the notation ‘fam. nov.’ or ‘gen. nov.’ following their names.Occurrences used here are specimens originating from a given stratigraphic horizon assigned to a given taxon. The age of each occurrence is based on data from PBDB, corrected with a more precise age (generally stage, sometimes substage), and the age of each time bin boundaries relies on the stratigraphic framework proposed in the International Chronostratigraphic Chart (updated to correspond with the ICS 2022/0295). Similarly, the ages of some species assigned to the wrong stage were corrected. In fact, some species from the French Permian deposit of Lodève were initially considered to be of Artinskian age in PBDB but most species from this deposit originate from the Merifons member, which is of Kungurian age96.Our data compilation allows a robust integration of data before and after our period of interest (i.e. the lower Permian and all geologic stages after the Carnian) to encompass occurrences of genera that may survive until the Late Triassic and to generate a sufficient background for the model to correctly estimate the extinction events around the P/T boundary. Since we used different datasets, the differences between genus-level or family-level occurrence numbers are explained by the systematic placement of some specimens that can only be placed confidently in a family but not in a genus (Supplementary Table 1). Tentative species identifications originally placed with uncertainty (reported as ‘aff.’ or ‘?’) were always included at a higher taxonomic level. Uncertain generic attributions were integrated as occurrences at the family level (e.g. a fossil initially considered Tupus? is recorded as an occurrence of Meganeuridae). Our total dataset was subdivided into smaller datasets, which represent orders or other subclades of insects (e.g. Mecoptera, Holometabola and Polyneoptera). Note that all the ichnospecies—a species name assigned to trace fossils (e.g. resting trace, nest and leaf damage)— and insect eggs (e.g. Clavapartus latus, Furcapartus exilis and Monilipartus tenuis) were not included in the analyses97. To prevent potential issues regarding the diversification estimates for clades with poor delineation, we refrained from analysing several orders that serve as taxonomic ‘wastebaskets’ (e.g. Grylloblattodea). These groups are poorly defined, likely polyphyletic or paraphyletic, and not supported by apomorphic characters—e.g. the monophyly of the ‘Grylloblattodea’ (Grylloblattida Walker, 1914 plus numerous fossil families and genera of uncertain affinities) is not supported by any synapomorphy, nor the relationships within this group. The occurrences assigned to these orders were rather included in analyses conducted at a higher taxonomic level (at the Polyneoptera level in the case of the ‘Grylloblattodea’). The detail of the composition of all the datasets is given in Supplementary Table 14, and each dataset is available in Supplementary Data 1.Studying extinction should, when possible, rely on species-level diversity to better circumscribe extinction events at this taxonomic rank, which is primarily affected by extinction98,99,100. However, in palaeoentomology, species-level occurrence data may contain less information than genus-level data, mainly because species are most of the time only known from one deposit, resulting in reduced life span, and are also sometimes poorly defined. Insects are also less prone to long-lasting genera or species than other lineages, maybe because of the relatively short time between generations (allowing for rapid evolution) or because morphological characters are better preserved or more diagnostic than in other lineages (i.e. wing venation), allowing easier differentiation. Another argument for the use of genus-level datasets is the possibility to add occurrences represented by fossils that cannot be assigned at the species level because of poor preservation or an insufficient number of specimens/available characters. By extension, the genus life span provides clues as to survivor taxa and times of origination during periods of post-extinction or recovery. A genus encompassing extinction events indicates that at least one species of this genus crossed the extinction. To get the best signal and infer a robust pattern of insect dynamics around the P/T events, we have chosen to analyse our dataset at different taxonomic ranks (e.g. genus, family and order levels) to extract as much evidence as possible.To further support our choice to work at these different levels, most recent works aiming to decipher the diversification and extinction in insect lineages have worked using a combination of analyses21,22,26; this also applies to non-insect clades51,101,102. This multi-level approach should maximise our understanding of the Permo–Triassic events.Assessing optimal parameters and preliminary testsPrior to choosing the settings for the final analyses (see detail in Dynamics of origination and extinction), a series of tests were carried out to better evaluate the convergence of our analyses. First, we analysed our genus-level dataset with PyRate36 running for 10 million generations and sampling every 10,000 generations, on ten randomly replicated datasets using the reversible-jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) model37 and the parameters of PyRate set by default. As the convergence was too low, new settings were used, notably increasing the number of generations to 50 million generations and monitoring the MCMC mixing and effective sample size (ESS) each 10 million generations. We modified the minimal interval between two shifts (-min_dt option, testing 0.5, 1.5 and 2), and found no major difference in diversification patterns between our tests. We have opted for 50 million generations with a predefined time frame set for bins corresponding to the Permian and Triassic stages, and a minimum interval between two shifts of two Ma. These parameters allow for maintaining a short bin frame and high convergence values while correctly identifying periods of diversification and extinction. For each analysis, ten datasets were generated using the extract.ages function to randomly resample the age of fossil occurrences within their respective temporal ranges (i.e. resampled ages are randomly drawn between the minimum and the maximum ages of the geological stratum). We monitored chain mixing and ESS by examining the log files in Tracer 1.7.1103 after excluding the first 10% of the samples as a burn-in period. The parameters are considered convergent when their ESS are greater than 200.Dynamics of origination and extinctionWe carried out the analyses of the fossil datasets based on the Bayesian framework implemented in the programme PyRate36. We analysed the fossil datasets under two models: the birth–death model with constrained shifts (BDCS38) and the RJMCMC (-A 4 option37). These models allow for a simultaneous estimate for each taxon: (1) the parameters of the preservation process (Supplementary Fig. 17), (2) the times of origination (Ts) and extinction (Te) of each taxon, (3) the origination and extinction rates and their variation through time for each stage and (4) the number and magnitude of shifts in origination and extinction rates.All analyses were set with the best-fit preservation process after comparing (-PPmodeltest option) the homogeneous Poisson process (-mHPP option), the non-homogeneous Poisson process (default option), and the time-variable Poisson process (-qShift option). The preservation process infers the individual origination and extinction times of each taxon based on all fossil occurrences and on an estimated preservation rate, denoted q, expressed as expected occurrences per taxon per Ma. The time-variable Poisson process assumes that preservation rates are constant within a predefined time frame but may vary over time (here, set for bins corresponding to stages). This model is thus appropriate when rates over time are heterogeneous.We ran PyRate for 50 million MCMC generations and a sampling every 50,000 generations for the BDCS and RJMCMC models with time bins corresponding to Permian and Triassic stages (-fixShift option). All analyses were set with a time-variable Poisson process (-qShift option) of preservation and accounted for varying preservation rates across taxa using the Gamma model (-mG option), that is, with gamma-distributed rate heterogeneity with four rate categories36. As explained above, the minimal interval between two shifts (-min_dt option) was modified and a value of 2 was used. The default prior to the vector of preservation rates is a single gamma distribution with shape = 1.5 and rate = 1.5. We reduced the subjectivity of this parameter, and favoured a better adequation to the data, allowing PyRate to estimate the rate parameter of the prior from the data by setting the rate parameter to 0 (-pP option). Therefore, PyRate assigns a vague exponential hyper-prior to the rate and samples the rate along with all other model parameters. Similarly, because our dataset does not encompass the entire fossil record of insects, we assumed that a possible edge effect may interfere with our analyses, with a strong diversification during the lowermost Permian and, conversely a strong extinction during the uppermost Triassic. Because the RJMCMC and BDCS algorithms look for rate shifts, we constrained the algorithm to only search for shifts (-edgeShift option) within the following time range 295.0 to 204.5 Ma. We monitored chain mixing and ESS by examining the log files in Tracer 1.7.1103 after excluding the first 10% of the samples as a burn-in period. The parameters are considered convergent when their ESS are greater than 200.We then combined the posterior estimates of the origination and extinction rates across all replicates to generate rates through-time plots (origination, extinction, and net diversification). Shifts of diversification were considered significant when log Bayes factors were >6 in the RJMCMC model, while we considered shifts to be significant in the BDCS model when mean rates in a time bin did not overlap with the 95% credibility interval (CI) of the rates of adjacent time bins.We replicated all the analyses on ten randomly generated datasets of each clade and calculated estimates of the Ts and the Te as the average of the posterior samples from each replicate. Thus, we obtained ten posterior estimates of the Ts and Te for all taxa and we used these values to estimate the past diversity dynamics by calculating the number of living taxa at each time point. For all the subsequent analyses, we used the estimated Ts and Te of all taxa to test whether or not the origination and the extinction rate dynamics were correlated with particular abiotic factors, as suggested by the drastic changes in environmental conditions known during the Permo–Triassic. We used proxies for abiotic factors, such as global continental fragmentation or the dynamic of major clades of plants, and for biotic factors via species interaction within and between ecological guilds. This approach avoids re-modelling preservation and re-estimating times of origination and extinction, which reduces drastically the computational burden, while still allowing to account for the preservation process and the uncertainties associated with fossil ages. Similarly, the times of origination and extinction used in all the subsequent analyses were obtained while accounting for the heterogeneity of preservation, origination and extinction rates. To discuss the magnitude of the periods of extinction and diversification, we compared the magnitude of these events to the background origination and extinction rates (i.e. not during extinction or diversification peaks).The PyRate approach has proven to be robust following a series of tests and simulations that reflect commonly observed biases when modelling past diversity dynamics31,38. These simulations were based on datasets simulated under a range of potential biases (i.e. violations of the sampling assumptions, variable preservation rates, and incomplete taxon sampling) and reflecting the limitations of the fossil record. Simulation results showed that PyRate is able to correctly estimate the dynamics of origination and extinction rates, including sudden rate changes and mass extinction, even if the preservation levels are low (down to 1–3 fossil occurrences per species on average), the taxon sampling is partial (up to 80% missing) or if the datasets have a high proportion of singletons (exceeding 30% of the taxa in some cases). The strongest bias in birth–death rate estimates is caused by incomplete data (i.e. missing lineages) altering the distribution of taxa; a pervasive effect often mentioned for phylogeny-based models104,105,106. However, in the case of PyRate, the simulations confirm the absence of consistent biases due to an incomplete fossil record36. Finally, the recently implemented RJMCMC model was shown to be very accurate for estimating origination and extinction rates (i.e. more accurate than the BDCS model, the boundary-crossing and three-time methods) and is able to recover sudden extinction events regardless of the biases in the fossil dataset37.The severity of extinctions and survivorsFor each event—the Roadian–Wordian, the LPME, and the Ladinian–Carnian—we quantified the percentage of extinctions and survivors at the genus level. We used the Te and Ts from our RJMCMC analysis and computed the mean for the Te (Tem) and for the Ts (Tsm) of each genus. We then filtered our dataset to keep only the genera with a Tsm older than the upper boundary of the focal event, i.e., we only kept the genera that appeared before the end of the event. Then, we discarded the genera that have disappeared before the lower boundary of the focal event, i.e. Tem older that the lower boundary of the event. The remaining genera, which corresponds to all the genera (total) present during the crisis (Ttgen), can be classified into two categories, ‘survivor genera’ (Sgen), i.e. those that survived the crisis, and those that died: ‘extinct genera’ (Egen). The survivors have a Tem younger than the upper boundary of the focal event, while the ‘extinct genera’ died out during the event and have a Tem between the lower and upper boundaries of the event of interest. To obtain the percentage of survivors, we used the following formula: (Sgen/Ttgen) × 100. Similarly, the percentage of extinction is calculated as: (Egen/Ttgen) × 100.Age-dependent extinction modelWe assessed the effect of taxon age on the extinction probability by fitting the age-dependent extinction (ADE; -ADE 1 option) model50. This model estimates the probability for a lineage to become extinct as a function of its age, also named longevity, which is the elapsed time since its origination. It is recommended to run the ADE model over time windows with roughly constant origination and extinction rates, as convergence is difficult—but not impossible—to reach in extinction or diversification contexts50. We ran PyRate for 50 million MCMC generations with a sampling every 50,000 generations, with a time-variable Poisson process of preservation (-qShift option), while accounting for varying preservation rates across taxa using the Gamma model (-mG option). We replicated the analyses on ten randomised datasets and combined the posterior estimates across all replicates. We estimated the shape (Φ) and scale (Ψ) parameters of the Weibull distribution, and the taxon longevity in a million years. According to ref. 50, there is no evidence of age-dependent extinction rates if Φ = 1. However, the extinction rate is higher for young species and decreases with species age if Φ  1. Although ADE models are prone to high error rates when origination and extinction rates increase or decrease through time, simulations with PyRate have shown that fossil-based inferences are robust50. We investigated the effect of ADE during three different periods (-filter option) as follows: (1) between 264.28 Ma and 255 Ma (pre-decline), (2) between 254.5 Ma and 251.5 Ma (decline) and (3) between 234 Ma and 212 Ma (post-crisis). We monitored chain mixing and ESS by examining the log files in Tracer 1.7.1103 and considered the convergence of parameters sufficient when their ESS were greater than 200.Selection of abiotic and biotic variablesTo test correlations of insect diversification with environmental changes, we examined the link between a series of environmental variables and origination/extinction rates over a period encompassing the GEE, the LPME and the CPE but also for each extinction event. We focused on the role of nine variables, also called proxies, which have been demonstrated or assumed to be linked to extinctions and changes in insect diversity26,67.The variations in the atmospheric CO2 and O2 concentrations are thought to be correlated with the diversification of several insect lineages, including the charismatic giant Meganeuridae65,66,67. Because the increase of O2 concentration has likely driven the diversification of some insects, its diminution may have resulted in the extinction or decline of some lineages. Therefore, we investigated the potential correlation of the variations of this variable with insect dynamics using data from ref. 55. We extracted the data, with 1-million-year time intervals, spanning the Permo–Triassic.Similarly, the modification of CO2 concentration, notably its increase, is known to promote speciation in some modern insect groups107. Therefore, a similar effect may have occurred during the Permian and Triassic but remains to be tested. We based our analyses on the dataset of ref. 108. We used their cleaned dataset and extracted all verified values for the Permo–Triassic interval. Because the initial data (i.e. independent estimates) were made in various locations for the same age, different values of the CO2 concentration are provided. We incorporated all these values in our analysis, allowing PyRate to search for a correlation for each value of the CO2 concentration. We obtain a final correlation independent of the sampling location, in line with our large-scale analysis.The continental fragmentation, as approximated by plate tectonic change over time, has recently been proposed as a driver of Plecoptera dynamics26. Because the period studied encompasses a major geological event, the fragmentation of the supercontinent Pangea, we investigated the effect of continental fragmentation on insect diversification dynamics. We retrieved the index of continental fragmentation developed by ref. 69 using paleogeographic reconstructions for 1-million-year time intervals. This index approaches 1 when all plates are disjoined (complete plate fragmentation) and approaches 0 when the continental aggregation is maximal.Climate change (variations in warming and cooling periods) is a probable driver of diversification changes over the history of insects21,109. Temperature is likely directly linked with insect dynamics109 but also with their food sources, notably plants110. Because it was demonstrated that modification of temperature impacted floral assemblages110, we tested the correlation between temperature variations and the diversification dynamic of insects. Major trends in global climate change through time are typically estimated from relative proportions of different oxygen isotopes (δ18O) in samples of benthic foraminiferan shells111. We used the data from ref. 112, converted to absolute temperatures following the methodology described in Condamine et al.113 (see their section Global temperature variations through time). The resulting temperature data reflects planetary-scale climatic trends, with time intervals inferior to 1-million-year, which can be expected to have led to temporally coordinated diversification changes in several clades rather than local or seasonal fluctuations.The fluctuation in relative diversity of gymnosperms, non-Polypodiales ferns, Polypodiales ferns, spore-plants, and later the rise of angiosperms has likely driven the diversification of numerous insects57,60,61,114. Close interactions between insects and plants are well-recorded during the Permian and Triassic57,60,61. In fact, herbivorous insects are known to experience high selection pressure from bottom-up forces, resulting from interactions with their hosts or feeding plants30,72. Therefore, it appears crucial to investigate the effect of these modifications on the insects’ past dynamics. We used the data from ref. 38 for the different plant lineages (all with 1-million-year time intervals). All the datasets for these variables are available in the publications cited aside from each variable or in Supplementary Data 1.Multivariate birth–death modelWe used the multivariate birth–death (MBD) model to assess to what extent biotic and abiotic factors can explain temporal variation in origination and extinction rates55. The model is described in ref. 55, where origination and extinction rates can change through time in relation to environmental variables so that origination and extinction rates depend on the temporal variations of each factor. The strength and sign (positive or negative) of the correlations are jointly estimated for each variable. The sign of the correlation parameters indicates the sign of the resulting correlation. When their value is estimated around zero, no correlation is estimated. An MCMC algorithm combined with a horseshoe prior, controlling for over-parameterisation and for the potential effects of multiple testing, jointly estimates the baseline origination (λ0) and extinction (µ0) rates and all correlation parameters (Gλ and Gµ)55. The horseshoe prior is used to discriminate which correlation parameters should be treated as noise (shrunk around 0) and which represent a true signal (i.e. significantly different from 0). In the MBD model, a correlation parameter is estimated to quantify independently the role of each variable on the origination and the extinction.We ran the MBD model using 20 (for short intervals) or 50 million MCMC generations and sampling every 20,000 or 50,000 to approximate the posterior distribution of all parameters (λ0, µ0, nine Gλ, nine Gµ and the shrinkage weights of each correlation parameter, ωG). The MBD analyses used the Ts and the Te derived from our previous analyses under the RJMCMC model. The results of the MBD analyses were summarised by calculating the posterior mean and 95% CI of all correlation parameters and the mean of the respective shrinkage weights (across ten replicates), as well as the mean and 95% CI of the baseline origination and extinction rates. We carried out six analyses, over: (1) the Permo–Triassic (between 298.9 and 201.3 Ma); (2) the Roadian–Wordian (R/W) boundary (between 270 and 265 Ma), (3) the LPME (between 254.5 and 250 Ma), (4) the Ladinian–Carnian (L/C) boundary (between 240 to 234 Ma), (5) the Permian period (between 298.9 and 251.902 Ma) and (6) the Triassic period (between 251.902 and 201.3 Ma). We monitored chain mixing and ESS by examining the log files in Tracer 1.7.1103 and considered the convergence of parameters sufficient when their ESS were greater than 200.Multiple clade diversity-dependence modelTo assess the potential effect of diversity-dependence on the diversity dynamics of three or four insect guilds, we used the multiple clade diversity-dependence (MCDD) model in which origination and extinction rates are correlated with the diversity trajectory of other clades31. This model postulates that competitive interactions linked with an increase in diversity results in decreasing origination rates and/or increasing extinction rates. The MCDD model allows for testing diversity-dependence between genera of a given clade or between genera of distinct clades sharing a similar ecology.We estimated the past diversity dynamics for three (i.e. herbivores, predators, and a guild composed of generalists + detritivores/fungivores dubbed ‘others’) or four insect groups or guilds (i.e. herbivores, predators, generalists and detritivores/fungivores) by calculating the number of living species at every point in time based on the times of origination (Ts) and extinction (Te) estimated under the RJMCMC model (see above) (Supplementary Figs. 19–24). We defined our four insect groups with a cautious approach i.e. insect genera, families or orders for which nothing is known about the ecology or about the ecology of their close relatives were not considered for the analysis. For example, no diet was assigned to Diptera, Mecoptera or Glosselytrodea. The ecology of the Triassic Diptera and Permo–Triassic Mecoptera is difficult to establish because extant Diptera and Mecoptera have a wide diversity of ecology. Fossil Mecoptera are also putatively involved in numerous interactions with plants (species with elongated mouthparts), suggesting a placement in the herbivore group, while other species were likely predators. Therefore, we cannot decide to which group each species belongs. Similarly, nothing is known about the body and mouthparts of the Glosselytrodea, most of the time described based on isolated wings; we did not assign the order to any group. The definition and delineation of insect clades have also challenged the placement of several orders (e.g. ‘Grylloblattodea’) in one of our four groups. The order ‘Grylloblattodea’ is poorly delineated and mostly serves as a taxonomic ‘wastebasket’ to which it is impossible to assign a particular ecology. Finally, genera, species, or families not placed in a higher clade (e.g. Meshemipteron, Perielytridae) were not included in the analysis. Oppositely, the guilds ‘herbivores’ and ‘predators’ are well defined, and their ecology is evidenced by the morphology of their representatives and the principle of actualism. For example, the ecology of Meganeurites gracilipes (Meganeuridae) has been deeply studied, and its enlarged compound eyes, its sturdy mandibles with acute teeth, its tarsi and tibiae bearing strong spines, and the presence of a pronounced thoracic skewness are specialisations today found in dragonflies that capture their prey while in flight115. All Odonatoptera are well-known predator insects. The raptorial forelegs of the representatives of the order Titanoptera and their mouthparts with strong mandibles are linked with predatory habits81. The Palaeodictyopteroidea were herbivorous insects with long, beak-like, piercing mouthparts, and probably a sucking organ81,82. Most Hemiptera are confidently considered herbivorous insects by comparison with their extant representatives. For example, the Cicadomorpha or Sternorrhyncha are known to feed on plants and their fossil representatives likely possessed the same ecology because of similar morphologies116. Some hemipteran families (e.g. Nabidae) are predators and we cautiously distinguished herbivorous and carnivorous taxa among Hemiptera. The detail of the ecological assignations for the 1009 genera included in our analyses can be found in Supplementary Data 1 (Table MCCD).We calculated ten diversity trajectories from the ten replicated analyses under the RJMCMC model. The estimation of past species diversity might be biased by low preservation rates or taxonomic uncertainties. However, such trajectory curves are likely to provide a reasonably accurate representation of the past diversity changes in the studied clades, notably because the preservation during the Permian and Triassic period is relatively good for insects (i.e. no gaps).Our MCDD analyses comprise all the insect genera spanning from the lowermost Permian to the uppermost Triassic and were run and repeated on ten replicates (using the Te and Ts estimated under the RJMCMC model) with 50 million MCMC generations and a sampling frequency of 50,000. For each of the four insect groups, we computed the median and the 95% CI of the baseline origination and extinction rates (λi and µi), the within-group diversity-dependence parameters gλi and gµi, and the between-groups diversity dependence parameters gλij and gµij. The mean of the sampled diversity dependence parameters (e.g. gλij) was used as a measure of the intensity of the negative (if positive) or positive interactions (if negative) between each pair of groups. The interactions were considered significant when their median was different from 0 and the 95% CI did not overlap with 0. We monitored chain mixing and ESS by examining the log files in Tracer 1.7.1103 and considered the convergence of parameters sufficient when their ESS were greater than 200.We cross-validated the result of the MCDD model using the MBD model. The MBD model can be used to run a multiple clade diversity-dependence analysis by providing the diversity trajectories of insect guilds as a continuous variable. These data are directly generated by PyRate using the lineages-through-time generated by the RJMCMC analyses (-ltt option). We ran the MBD model using 50 million MCMC generations and sampling every 50,000 to approximate the posterior distribution of all parameters (λ0, µ0, four Gλ, four Gµ and the shrinkage weights of each correlation parameter, ωG). We carried out three analyses, over the period encompassing the three extinction events (between 275 and 230 Ma): (1) for herbivores; (2) for predators; and (3) for ‘others’. For each analysis, the lineages-through-time data of the two other guilds are used as continuous variables to investigate a diversity dependence effect. We monitored chain mixing and ESS by examining the log files in Tracer 1.7.1103 and considered the convergence of parameters sufficient when their ESS were greater than 200.Reporting summaryFurther information on research design is available in the Nature Portfolio Reporting Summary linked to this article. More