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    Can the world save a million species from extinction?

    Indonesia’s bleeding toad (Leptophryne cruentata) is critically endangered.Credit: Pepew Fegley/Shutterstock

    One-quarter of all plant and animal species are threatened with extinction owing to factors such as climate change and pollution. Starting this week, negotiators and ministers from more than 190 countries are meeting at a United Nations biodiversity summit called COP15 in Montreal, Canada, to address the emergency.
    10 startling images of nature in crisis — and the struggle to save it
    From 7 to 19 December, they will be trying to seal a new deal to save Earth’s biodiversity. The treaty, known as the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, is intended to establish precise targets for countries to protect and restore nature, including conserving 30% of the planet by 2030 and cutting nutrient pollution, such as reducing nitrogen fertilizer loss from farmland.Time is running out. “We’re driving species to extinction at a rate about 1,000 times faster than they are created through evolution,” says Stuart Pimm, an ecologist at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, and head of Saving Nature, a non-profit conservation organization.As COP15 kicks off, researchers and policy experts are concerned that countries still disagree on too many issues to secure a deal that will protect species and ecosystems effectively. Here, Nature looks at the extent of the crisis, and what scientists say countries must do to succeed.Which species are most at risk, and what’s threatening them?Among the most at-risk groups are amphibians and reef-forming corals. A global assessment shows that more than 40% of amphibians are threatened with extinction1, including the critically endangered bleeding toad (Leptophryne cruentata), which lives in Mount Gede Pangrango National Park in Java, Indonesia.These toads were thought to be extinct until the year 2000, when some were spotted by a team led by Mirza Kusrini, a herpetologist at Bogor Agricultural University in Indonesia. But the researchers found that the amphibians were infected with chytrid (Chytridiomycota sp.), a fungus that has devastated global amphibian populations. Kusrini says that climate change is probably making life hard for the tiny toad, which got its common name from the crimson, splatter-like spots covering its body. Warm weather can stimulate fungal outbreaks and shift the timing of behaviours, such as the toads’ breeding season, making the amphibians vulnerable.

    Source: Red List Index/IUCN

    Global warming, which has been raising sea temperatures, is also responsible for harming coral reefs around the globe (see ‘Threat assessment’). Over a period of 9 years, up to 2018, 14% of the world’s coral died out — a massive problem, because today, coral reefs support one-quarter of all marine species.Research shows that climate change is quickly becoming a large threat to biodiversity2. But still, the most-destructive forces are the conversion of land and seas for agricultural uses and people exploiting natural resources through fishing, logging, hunting and the wildlife trade. About 75% of land and 66% of ocean areas have been significantly altered, usually for producing food.What might happen if species disappear?It’s difficult to predict, because doing so requires knowledge of which species are present in a particular ecosystem, such as a rainforest, and what functions they have, says Shahid Naeem, an ecologist at Columbia University in New York City. Much of that information is often unknown. However, scientists have shown3 that ecosystems with less biodiversity are not as good at capturing and converting resources into biomass, such as happens when plants capture nutrients or sunlight used for growth.
    Why deforestation and extinctions make pandemics more likely
    Neither are less-diverse ecosystems as good at decomposing and recycling biological materials and nutrients. For example, studies show that dead organisms are broken down, and their nutrients recycled, more quickly when a high variety of plant litter covers the forest floor4. Ecosystems with low biodiversity also have low resilience — they are not as able to bounce back after a perturbation or shock, such as a fire, as more-diverse systems are, Naeem says.“If we lose parts of our system, it simply won’t function very efficiently, and it won’t be very robust,” he adds. “The science behind that is rock solid.”Ecosystems also provide clean water and can sometimes prevent diseases from spreading to humans. When species are lost, these services deteriorate, Kusrini says. For example, most amphibians eat insects, many of which are considered pests, such as cockroaches, termites and mosquitoes. Studies have shown a rise in cases of malaria — spread by mosquitoes — in areas in Central America where amphibian populations have collapsed5. “You know when they disappear”, Kusrini says, because insect numbers rise and people start using more pesticides to kill them.What solutions do researchers say are needed to protect biodiversity?Protecting and conserving habitats is central to saving species. This idea is captured in the framework being negotiated at COP15. The draft includes the goal of conserving at least 30% of the world’s land and sea by 2030. But for protections to be most effective, they must include regions that are rich in biodiversity, such as tropical forests, Pimm says. Despite an increase in protected areas worldwide over the past ten years, species numbers have still declined, because these safeguards were not in the right places, studies show6.

    Delegates at COP15 in Montreal show their support for a new agreement among nations to protect Earth’s biodiversity.Credit: UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CC BY 2.0)

    “What we’re going to be looking for at COP15 is more quality, not just more quantity,” Pimm says.Eradicating invasive species is another important conservation strategy, and the framework’s draft currently calls for cutting the introduction of such species in half. Some estimates suggest that invasive predators, such as cats and rats, are responsible for more than half of all extinctions of birds, mammals and reptiles7.It’s important that nations agree on a framework with at least some quantifiable targets, so that progress can be measured, and so that countries can be held accountable if they fail to meet their targets, researchers say. “I’m afraid what will happen is, they will produce a long list of ‘waffle’,” Pimm says. “We need quantification.”Will nations manage to agree on a new deal to protect nature?As COP15 begins, the outlook is not good. The text of the draft is still littered with unresolved issues. At a press conference on 6 December, Elizabeth Mrema, executive secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity — the global treaty that underpins the new biodiversity deal — said that national negotiators had made insufficient progress in a final round of discussions before the start of the summit. She urged countries to compromise, otherwise they will fail to reach a deal. “The state of the planet is in crisis,” Mrema said. “This is our last chance to act.”
    Troubled biodiversity plan gets billion-dollar funding boost
    One key contentious issue is how to finance biodiversity conservation, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, which are home to much of the world’s biodiversity. These nations, including Brazil and Gabon, would like a new fund to be established with US$100 billion added per year in aid. So far, that proposal has not gained traction with wealthier countries. “They really need to have the financial commitments, because things don’t get done without the money,” Naeem says.Despite the pessimism, Naeem is certain that scientists and advocates will keep pushing for a deal. “There would be real change” if countries were able to achieve a universal decrease in biodiversity loss, he says. More

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    Biodiversity and climate COPs

    Restoring the connection between people and the rest of nature hinges on whole-system science, actions and negotiations.
    Those who think about and practise sustainability are constantly looking for holistic interpretations of the world and are trying to understand systemic relations, networks and connections. Biodiversity has all of these things. It shows how every species needs other species to exist and thrive. It shows that all living organisms are part of a sophisticated and fascinating system made up of myriads of links. And humans are undoubtedly a part of it.
    Credit: Pulsar Imagens / Alamy Stock PhotoIn the realm of sustainability, experts also ponder about time: how can life exist and thrive over time? Indeed, the above mentioned fascinating system evolves over time. And, over time, it has to adapt to unexpected change. It does that well when it is healthy, and less well when it is ill and constantly disturbed.For a long time, man-made impacts kept accumulating almost completely unchecked by societies, until the consequences for human well-being became untenable. Nowadays, environmental crises make the headlines regularly. They are nothing but the result of a broken connection between people and the rest of nature.Climate change is one major outcome of the broken human–rest of nature connection and has wide ramifications for both people and the planet. We now face imminent disaster, unequally across the world, yet addressing climate change remains an incredibly thorny task. Country representatives from most nations around the world meet regularly at the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) — most recently at COP27, which was held in Egypt — to continue the debate on what actions are needed to move the climate agenda forward, all while disasters continue to hit the most vulnerable populations. The world has seen 27 COP meetings to the UNFCC so far; one wonders how many more meetings will be needed to see real change happen.Interestingly, country representatives also meet regularly to discuss biodiversity protection; biodiversity decline — the other major consequence of the broken human–rest of nature connection — is just as worrying, with severe and ramified implications that are still largely underappreciated by decision-makers. These gatherings are the COP meetings to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Last year, we wrote about the then forthcoming COP15 to the CBD (Nat. Sustain. 4, 189; 2021), the meeting in which the new conservation targets to be met by 2030 were to be agreed. We highlighted the extent to which experts worried that those new targets might not go far enough. The meeting was postponed more than once due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and it is finally happening on 7 December 2022, in Montreal, Canada. The world has already seen 15 COP meetings to the CBD, how many more meetings will be needed for the biodiversity crisis to be averted?But let’s go back to thinking about sustainability. Experts look for holistic visions of the world. Here is an interesting example of what holism means. Biodiversity decline and climate change are both the result of the broken connection between people and the rest of nature, they ultimately have the same, deep roots. They are mutually reinforcing phenomena: unhealthy biodiversity contributes to climate change, and climate change makes biodiversity ill. All this is bad news for human and planetary well-being. The climate–biodiversity conundrum, at least to some degree, has been recognized at a higher level — during COP27, leaders dedicated one day to biodiversity.Yet, given that these issues are highly interconnected and have the same origin, why is the world insisting on discussing them as separate agendas? Why are we still holding two separate COPs? How are these meetings going to promote any fruitful synergy? How will they lead people to reconnect with the rest of nature? Country representatives should be breaking silos, embracing holism and bringing these intertwined issues, and their multiple ramifications, to the same negotiating table.Nature Sustainability welcomes the long-awaited COP15 to the CBD and hopes that countries will agree on feasible yet ambitious 2030 targets to protect and enhance biodiversity. But most of all, we hope that all of the experts and leaders involved in addressing the environmental crises embrace holism to promote meaningful actions across the world aimed at restoring people’s connection with the rest of nature. We are eager to see progress to this end. In the meantime, the collection we started in March 2021 with Nature Ecology & Evolution has been updated to renew our support to the biodiversity community. More

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    Oldest DNA reveals 2-million-year-old ecosystem

    Listen to the latest from the world of science, with Benjamin Thompson.
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    In this episode:00:45 World’s oldest DNA shows that mastodons roamed ancient GreenlandDNA recovered from ancient permafrost has been used to reconstruct what an ecosystem might have looked like two million years ago. Their work suggests that Northern Greenland was much warmer than the frozen desert it is today, with a rich ecosystem of plants and animals.Research Article: Kjær et al.Nature Video: The world’s oldest DNA: Extinct beasts of ancient Greenland08:21 Research HighlightsWhy low levels of ‘good’ cholesterol don’t predict heart disease risk in Black people, and how firework displays affect the flights of geese.Research Highlight: ‘Good’ cholesterol readings can lead to bad results for Black peopleResearch Highlight: New Year’s fireworks chase wild geese high into the sky10:31 Modelling the potential emissions of plasticsWhile the global demand for plastics is growing, the manufacturing and disposal of these ubiquitous materials is responsible for significant CO2 emissions each year. This week, a team have modelled how CO2 emissions could vary in the context of different strategies for mitigating climate change. They reveal how under specific conditions the industry could potentially become a carbon sink.Research Article: Stegmann et al.News and Views: Plastics can be a carbon sink but only under stringent conditionsSubscribe to Nature Briefing, an unmissable daily round-up of science news, opinion and analysis free in your inbox every weekday.Never miss an episode. Subscribe to the Nature Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast app. An RSS feed for Nature Podcast is available too. More