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Study systemOur focal ecosystem is in Selvíria, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil ((hbox {20}^{circ }) (22′) (41.86”) S, (hbox {51}^{circ }) (24′) (58.90”) W), on a property owned by the São Paulo State University (UNESP). The location covers 350 ha of pasture composed of liverseed grass (Urochloa decumbens). The native vegetation was removed, pasture areas were implemented, and livestock was introduced in the 1970s, maintaining this configuration during the following 50 years. The climate of this area is categorized as equatorial savanna, with dry periods concentrated mostly during the winter, from April to August. During our sampling period (from November 23th, 1989, to November 19th, 2015), no vermifuges and insecticides that could affect negatively the community of dung beetles associated with cow pads were used1.The native dung beetle community at this site is composed of dwellers and tunnelers. Dwellers comprise the Aphodiinae subfamily, whereas all the tunnelers belong to the Scarabaeinae subfamily31. In total, there were eight species classified as dwellers (Ataenius crenulatus, A. picinus and Atanius aequalis-platensis grouped as one species, Blackburneus furcatus, Genieridium bidens, Labarrus pseudolividus, Nialaphodius nigrita and Trichillum externepunctatum) and ten native tunnelers (Ateuchus nr. puncticollis, A. vividus, Canthidium nr. pinotoides, Dichotomius bos, D. semiaeneus, D. sexdentatus, Ontherus appendiculatus, O. dentatus, O. sulcator). These species were chosen for our study because, as the invasive tunneler D. gazella (also from the Scarabaeinae subfamily), they all co-occur in pasture and exploit the same resource (cow pad)32. The initial establishment of D. gazella caused the loss of most of the native tunnelers from the community, with the invader becoming the overwhelming representative of the functional group, and an initial decrease of abundance for dwellers. Differently from native tunnelers, however, dwellers were able to recover their number a few years after invasion (Fig. 1a, Fig. S1).As reported in1, the abundance of dung beetles was significantly affected by both local minimum temperature and relative humidity. The influence of these two factors is expected, as they determine egg and larval survival and development of dung beetles. For example, because dung beetles are poikilotherms, environmental temperature is key to their development and fecundity33. One of the main dweller species, Labarrus pseudolividus, is widely found in locations with temperature averages ranging between (hbox {12},^{circ }hbox {C}) and (hbox {18},^{circ }hbox {C})34, making it tolerant to colder local temperatures. On the other hand, for D. gazella the lower developmental threshold is (hbox {15.5},^{circ }hbox {C}) (individuals cannot survive below this temperature), and the optimum temperature for population growth is (hbox {28},^{circ }hbox {C})35. For both groups, physiological growth and reproduction rates are maintained even when outside temperatures are close to the lower developmental threshold; dwellers, for example, live inside the dung pile, where temperature is higher and less variable than outside36,37. However, while tunnelers oviposit deep in the soil to protect the eggs, warmer and drier conditions reduce dweller egg viability on dung piles since they are exposed38. Low humidity conditions lead to drier dung and can cause egg and insect dessication. In addition, dwellers from our focal system have Palearctic evolutionary origins39; D. gazella’s natural distribution ranges from central to southern Africa40, presenting high physiological plasticity that allows it to tolerate high temperatures and low relative humidity better than other tunneler species41.Functional-group data collection and community structure characterizationDung beetles were collected once a week in a black-light flight intercept trap42, which guarantees the collection of coprophagic beetles. During all collection periods, climate variables were also collected from a meteorological station located within 2 km of our collecting site. See1 for the complete description of the collection process and database. For our purposes, we retained the species, number of individuals per species, and climate variables for each week sampled (Supplementary Information, SI, Figs. S1–S2).We focused first on the weekly abundance data, which we needed to process in order to avoid spurious results in our analyses stemming from the measurement protocol. Specifically, we filtered out seasonal low values associated with sampling in the coldest periods, when few beetles are captured because the reduced activity in all functional groups restricts their spatio-temporal distribution43. Including such samples would not be representative of the community and could bias the analysis since we are investigating community composition (i.e. proportions, very sensitive to low sampling). Thus, we considered only samples with a total number of beetles (that is, summing up all groups together) higher than the value of the median of all data, a conservative threshold that retains observations that allow for as much representation of the community as possible. As will become evident in the Results section and Supplementary Information, less conservative choices for the threshold did not alter our main conclusions.Following Mesquita -Filho et al.1, we categorized all sampled species into either dwellers or tunnelers. D. gazella is a tunneler and, as explained above, the native tunneler species experienced massive declines in abundance after its establishment, leaving D. gazella as almost the single representative in the tunneler functional group during the period of observation1. Thus, given the sharp contrast in community composition, we also separated the data into before and after invasion using to that end the 200th week, when D. gazella was first observed at the study site (September 11th, 1993, starting date for what we will call “after invasion”, our focal period henceforth).To describe community functional composition (i.e. system state) through time, we derived a normalized functional group ratio. First, because the abundance of each functional group spanned up to four orders of magnitude, we performed a logarithmic transformation of the number of captured insects from each group i, (log _{10}(N_{i}+K)), following  Yamamura44. Here, we chose (K=1), but the value of K did not alter our results qualitatively. In addition, the original data showed random mismatches in the phenology of each group, which gave the wrong impression of extreme short-term shifts in functional group dominance within the community. To avoid such artifacts, we used nonparametric local regression (LOESS)45 to smooth the dynamics of each group46. For this smoothing, we employed the loess function in the R software 3.6.147 with a smooth parameter equal to 0.25, but other moderate values (or an optimal value calculated with Bayesian inference by the R function optimal_span) did not alter our conclusions. Finally, we extracted back from the smoothed curve the number of beetles within each functional group to calculate the fraction (f_{dwell}) that measures the relative abundance of dwellers:$$begin{aligned} f_{dwell} = frac{N_D}{N_D+N_T} end{aligned}$$
(1)
where (N_D) corresponds to the number of dwellers per week and (N_T) corresponds to the number of native tunnelers (for the period before invasion), or only the number of D. gazella observed per week (after invasion), using their corresponding smoothed curves. Including also native tunnelers after invasion did not alter our conclusions.Climate driverWe devised a single climatic driver variable that merges the weekly measurement of temperature and relative humidity over the years, abiotic factors key to the survival and reproduction of both groups (see above). We first converted minimum temperatures and relative humidity to normalized climate variables using a min-max normalization (a feature scaling that uses the total range of temperatures or relative humidity, respectively, as normalization factor):$$begin{aligned} T = frac{T_{week} – T_{min}}{T_{max}-T_{min}};;,~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ RH = frac{RH_{week} – RH_{min}}{RH_{max}-RH_{min}};;, end{aligned}$$
(2)
where T corresponds to the normalized temperature, (T_{week}) is the weekly temperature, and (T_{max}) and (T_{min}) are the absolute maximum and minimum temperatures observed during the whole sampling period, respectively. We used a similar notation for relative humidity, RH. Based on the information above regarding beetle response to climate, the merged climate factor c was defined as the relationship:$$begin{aligned} c = frac{T}{RH};;, end{aligned}$$
(3)
for (RHne 0). That is, higher temperatures and/or drier conditions (expected to favor D. gazella) lead to higher values for c. On the other hand, lower temperatures and/or more humid conditions (expected to favor dwellers) imply lower values for c. Intermediate values of c can represent either moderate or extreme values for both T and RH.Identifying ecological states and quantifying resilienceWith our (f_{dwell}) data as an index of community composition (i.e. system state), we calculated kernel density functions to interpolate a continuous probability distribution of the relative fraction of dwellers in the community, (p_{n}(f_{dwell})) (function density, R software 3.1.647) for a given range of climatic driver c values. We grouped the (f_{dwell}) data using ranges for c of size 0.4, to ensure a significant amount of weekly samples that allowed for the reconstruction of these probability distributions (see Table S1, first column). Note that bins with extreme values showed few data points (see first and last rows in Table S1), and thus were rejected to prevent misleading results due to reduced sampling. Also note that, for the density function, we used the default Gaussian kernel with a smoothing bandwidth adjusted to be (50%) larger than the default value (“adjust” argument set to 1.5). This conservative choice aims to reduce the effect of the different sampling across c bins and to ensure that differences among distributions across c values are not the result of spurious sampling noise.Further, we transformed the kernel density function:$$begin{aligned} V(f_{dwell}) = -ln (p_{n}(f_{dwell})) end{aligned}$$
(4)
This (V(f_{dwell})) function, called potential (e.g.48), shows by design well-defined minima for the most frequently observed values of (f_{dwell}) (i.e. configurations most frequently observed for the community, which conform the modes of the probability distribution) in a given group of data. At these points, the potential exhibits a change of trend from decreasing to increasing, and therefore its derivative shows a change of sign. Eq. (4), thus, provides a simple criterion to identify possible system states, which is a reason why potentials have been used extensively across disciplines49,50,51. Nonetheless, because the position of extrema is invariant under the transformation, using probability distributions instead would not alter our conclusions.Representing the potential obtained from all the (f_{dwell}) system states associated with a same range of climatic driver c values allowed us to identify stable community configurations associated with a specific climate. The comparison of the potentials obtained for different c ranges enabled the description of how the community changed in response to climatic variation. The location of the minima revealed which states were stable for a given value of the climatic driver; the presence of two minima, then, flagged the existence of bistability (i.e. two different community compositions possible for the same c value).These minima are materialized as wells in the potential’s landscape, which provides an easy way to understand the concept of stability: the dynamics of the system for the given value of the driver will eventually “fall” into a well (either a state dominated by dwellers or a state dominated by tunnelers), with the shape of the well (e.g. its depth) determining how difficult it is for the system to “escape” that state. Therefore, the area inside a well provides quantification of the tendency of a system to stay in that specific state, i.e. the resilience of the associated ecological state or how strong a perturbation has to be to move the system from such an ecological state to another2,3,50,51,52,53. Thus, in addition to number and location of wells, measuring their associated area allowed us to further characterize the resilience of the community. To this end, we first set a visualization window common to all potentials. Specifically, we plotted the potentials within a range for the vertical variable (the potential, V) given by ([-1.5,1.5]); the horizontal variable (fraction of dwellers, (f_{dwell})) is by definition bounded between 0 and 1. For potentials that showed one single well, the area of the well was measured as the area above the potential curve within this visualization window. For potentials that showed two wells (bistability), we measured the value of the potential at the local maximum separating the two wells, and established that value as the upper (horizontal) line closing the area of each well. To ensure all cases were comparable and eliminate any arbitrariness of the choices above, we expressed resilience as a relative area; in other words, we further normalized the well area by the total area across wells for that potential, which means that any single-well case will show a resilience (or relative area) of 1, and the resilience of the two wells when there is bistability adds up to 1.Figure 1Left: Community composition by functional group for all weeks of observation1. Green represents dwellers, blue represents tunnelers, and orange represents the invader D. gazella. Right: Sketch of responses of the community composition to the climatic driver (i.e. phase diagram) expected from the physiological and behavioral characteristics of the functional groups in the community as described in text: linear (red), or non-linear but monotonic without (blue) or with (brown) hysteresis.Full size imageIdentifying ecological transitionsMeasuring a state variable, (f_{dwell}), and a driver, c (order and control parameter, respectively, in the jargon of regime shift theory), allowed us to study how their observed behavior over time materializes in a driver-state relationship (the so-called phase diagram) defining the possible shifts in dominance (i.e. regime shifts) that the community may undergo as climate changes12. The non-monotonic temporal behavior of the components of the order parameter (i.e. dwellers and tunneler availability) and the components of the control parameter (i.e. temperature and relative humidity) makes it difficult to predict the shape of the phase diagram, and therefore whether we can expect alternative stable states in the focal example. For such cases, the dominance of the dung beetle community could (1) shift in a linear fashion toward the functional group favored by climatic conditions; (2) shift between functional groups in non-linear threshold response to climatic conditions without hysteresis; or (3) shift between functional groups in non-linear threshold response to climatic conditions with hysteresis –and thus showing bistability (see Fig. 1b, or12). Other possibilities, e.g. a non-linear shift between functional groups where one group is favored at intermediate climatic conditions12 are discarded as the invader is better suited for warmer and drier conditions. To evaluate which of these possibilities occurred, we represented (f_{dwell}) as a function of c, as well as the location of the minima shown by the potentials above. In addition to the emerging shape of this relationship, this plot can reveal the presence of alternative stable states if two or more different points occur for the same value of the control parameter, c. More

Building from this background the NAM took on these issues as its first-ever grand challenge, as a critical issue of import and urgency for us all. In 2018, the NAM empaneled an international, independent and multidisciplinary commission to create a global roadmap for healthy longevity, complete with evidence-based, targeted and actionable recommendations to move societies forward from an almost-exclusive focus on ‘coping with aging populations’ toward enabling individuals and societies to age successfully, and to reap the economic and societal benefits of longevity. The commission offers a way forward for governments and societies by beginning with recommendations for the next five years, and how these solutions can be financially sustainable through the creation of a virtuous cycle.To support these goals, the commission was to “(1) comprehensively address the challenges and opportunities presented by global aging population; (2) catalyze breakthrough ideas and research that will extend the human healthspan; and (3) generate transformative and scalable innovations world wide”8. The resulting comprehensive report, which was delayed in good measure by the COVID-19 pandemic, was released in June 2022 (ref. 8). We report here a summary of the high-level vision, goals, findings and recommendations of this global roadmap.The evidence for opportunities of longevity and the costs of inactionWe are seeing longer lives with increasing years spent in ill health (that is, the decompression of morbidity)9. The implications of longevity without health are costly ones for the individual, their families and for society. By contrast, scientific evidence shows that the majority of chronic diseases are preventable, and that prevention works at every age and stage of life. Further, the subset of individuals who are the beneficiaries of cumulative health-promoting conditions across the life course are demonstrating healthy longevity, defined as “the state in which years in good health approach the biological lifespan, with physical, cognitive and social functioning, enabling well-being across populations”8. However, only a minority of people in any country have the benefit of the necessary investments that promote health, and disparities in access to these investments across the life course are a major cause of unhealthy longevity. The costs of inaction in the face of widening disparities include the high risk of young people aging with more ill health, and the attendant costs to them and society.Further, the commission reports that when people have health and function in older age, the considerable cognitive and socioemotional capabilities and expertise that accrue with aging, and the prosocial goals of older age, constitute human and social capital assets that are unprecedented in both nature and scale. Contrary to disproven myths, workforce participation not only brings these valuable capabilities (such that intergenerational teams in the workplace are more productive and innovative than single-age-group teams), but older people working is also associated with more jobs for younger individuals10. In the USA and EU, it has been shown that older adults contribute 7% of gross domestic product (GDP) through paid work and the economic value of volunteering and caregiving11, even before opportunities are specifically expanded for the increasing older population. Societies that recognize this potential and invest to create both healthy longevity and the societal organizations and policies through which older adults can contribute to societal good will develop the opportunity for all ages to thrive. The return on investment will be to create older ages with health, function, dignity, meaning, purpose and opportunities — for those who desire it — to work longer, care for others or contribute in ways that they value to their community and future generations.The definition, principles and vision of ‘Vision 2050’ for healthy longevityThe global roadmap builds on the WHO ‘Decade of Healthy Ageing’, the UN Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 and other reports. It sets out principles for achieving healthy longevity using data and meaningful metrics to track achievement of outcomes and guide decision making. The report offers a vision empowered by the evidence: that, by 2050, societies will value the capabilities and assets of older people; all people will have the opportunity to live long lives with health and function; barriers to full participation by older people in society will have been solved; and that older people, with such health, will have the opportunity to engage in meaningful and productive activities. In turn, this societal engagement will create unprecedented social, human and economic capital, contributing to intergenerational well-being and cohesion, and to GDP.Implementing Vision 2050Accomplishing this vision demands ‘all-of-society’ intent — with aligned goals for healthy longevity and transformative action across public, private and academic sectors, and all of civil society and communities — and the implementation of evidence across the full and extending life course. Transforming only one component or sector (for example, health systems) will not be sufficient to create healthy longevity or its full opportunities. Rather, given that nations are complex systems, this vision for our future requires governmental leadership and transformation of all sectors of our complex societal system (Fig. 1).Fig. 1: Relevant actors for an all-of-society approach to healthy longevity.Healthy longevity requires government leadership and cooperation across all sectors. Adapted with permission from figure S-2 of ref. 8.Full size imageInvestment for healthy longevity — across the enabling sectors of health systems, social infrastructure and protections, the physical environment, and work and volunteering contributions — will require intentional planning and leadership to transform those components in tandem, and to resolve disrupters such as ageism, the social determinants of health and inequity, and pollution. These investments across all sectors will create the conditions for achieving healthy longevity and build new capital (human, social and economic) that will benefit all of society. As a result of these investments, society will see younger people thrive and move into a position to age with healthy longevity; those individuals who are already older will be recognized as valuable contributors to society in a ‘pay-it-forward’ stage of life. The underpinning social compact between citizens and government will support valuing each age group’s capabilities and goals, and the building of a society of well-being and cohesion across generations. This is at the center of the virtuous cycle for healthy longevity (Fig. 2)Fig. 2: The virtuous cycle of healthy longevity.Healthy longevity (top) is an outcome of a virtuous cycle, itself contributing to capital development (bottom left). Bottom right, capital (human, financial and social) supports enablers (work, physical environment, health systems and social infrastructure). The enablers propel the cycle, contributing to healthy longevity. Intentional investment for healthy longevity across all enabling sectors will create new capital that will benefit all of society. Adapted with permission from figure 1-4 of ref. 8.Full size imageGoals for initiating the transformation to healthy longevityThe commission identified the following changes that should occur from now to 2027 to start transformation of all of society, towards Vision 2050 and the creation of healthy longevity for all:

Creating social cohesion, social engagement and addressing the social determinants of health through social infrastructure are among the most effective determinants of slowed aging and the prevention of chronic conditions across the life course. Financial security in older age is essential for all.

Governments, the private sector and civil society should partner to design physical environments and infrastructure that are user-centered, and function as cohesion-enabling intergenerational communities for healthy longevity. Initiatives should focus on the inclusion of older people in the design, creating public spaces that promote social cohesion and intergenerational connection as well as mobility, physical activity and access to food, transportation, social services and engagement.

By 2027, governments should develop strategies and plans to arrive at adequately sized, geriatrically knowledgeable public health, clinical and long-term care workforces, and an integration of the pillars of the health system and social services. Together, these dimensions would foster and extend years of good health and support the diverse health needs and well-being of older people.

Governments should work to build the dividend of health longevity in collaboration with the business sector and civil society, to develop policies, incentives, and supportive systems that enable and encourage lifelong learning, and greater opportunities and necessary skills to engage in meaningful work or community volunteering across the lifespan.

We summarize the commission’s recommended goals for each of these sectors in brief in Box 1. Across all sectors, the key first steps that the commission identified are ones that can resolve obstacles to change and plan the change needed to shift multiple complex systems through both top-down and bottom-up approaches, in ways appropriate to each country and context. These initiatives should create enough momentum to foster early returns on investment and optimism to propel sustained investment for subsequent stages. This would need to begin for all governments by 2023, establishing calls to action to develop and implement data-driven, all-of-society plans to build the systems, policies, organizations and infrastructure needed, and for tracking change.Box 1 Goals for 2022–2027 to initiate the transformation to healthy longevityThese goals are reproduced from Global Roadmap for Healthy Longevity8.
Social infrastructure

Develop evidence-based multipronged strategies to reduce ageism against all groups.

Develop plans for ensuring basic financial security for all older people.

Develop strategies to increase financial literacy and mechanisms for promoting working longer, pension options and savings over the life course.

Plan opportunities for purposeful and meaningful engagement by older people at the family, community and societal levels.

Physical environment

At the societal level, improve broadband accessibility to reduce the digital divide and develop public transportation solutions that address first- and last-mile transportation.

At the city level, implement mitigation strategies to reduce the negative effects of the physical environment and related emergencies on older people (for example, air pollution and climate-induced events, including extreme heat and flooding) and design environments for connection and cohesion.

At the neighborhood level, promote and measure innovative policy solutions for healthy longevity, including affordable housing and intergenerational living, zoning and design for connection and cohesion, and the enabling of social capital.

At the home level, update physical infrastructure and policies to address affordability, provide coliving arrangements that match people’s goals and needs, and resolve insufficiencies and inefficiencies in housing stock.

Health systems

Establish healthy longevity as a major goal.

Increase investments in public health systems, which are needed to promote health and prevent disease, disability and injury at the population level, across the full life course. This may require rebalancing investments between this type of public health and medical care, recognizing that such public health is a public good and, as such, tends to be underinvested in.

Provide adequate primary care that includes preventive screening, addresses risk factors for chronic conditions and promotes positive health behaviors, and offers a continuum of medical care, including geriatrically knowledgeable care for older adults.

Make culturally sensitive, person-centered and equitable long-term care systems available, which (to the degree possible) offer dignity and honor people’s preferences about care settings.

Building the healthy longevity dividend

Governments, in collaboration with the business sector and civil society, should design (1) work environments and develop new policies that enable and encourage older adults who want or need to remain in the work force longer, and (2) engagement opportunities that strengthen communities at every stage of life.

Governments, employers and educational institutions should prioritize redesigning education systems to support lifelong learning and training, and invest in the science of learning and training for middle-aged and older adults.

Pilot innovations that incentivize and allow middle-aged and older adults to retool for multiple careers and/or participate as volunteers across their lifespan in roles with meaning and purpose. More

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GazeNewcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UKDavid W. Graham & Joshua T. BunceBrightwater Treatment Plant, Woodinville, WA, USABrett LeforDepartment of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USADrew Capone & Joe BrownUniversity of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USAEmanuele Sozzi & Mark D. SobseyUniversity of Washington, Seattle, WA, USAJohn Scott Meschke, Nicola Koren Beck, Pardi Sukapanpatharam & Phuong TruongBaylor University, Waco, USAMichael DavisColumbia Boulevard WWTP, Portland, USARonald LilienthalEastern Illinois University, Charleston, USASanghoon KangThe Ohio State University, Columbus Ohio, USAThomas E. WittumLaboratorio Tecnolσgico del Uruguay, Montevideo, UruguayNatalia Rigamonti & Patricia BaklayanInstitute of Public Health in Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh, VietnamChinh Dang Van, Doan Minh Nguyen Tran & Nguyen Do PhucUniversity of Zambia, Lusaka, ZambiaGeoffrey KwendaF.M.A., M.K., and M.W. conceived the study and secured funding. R.S.H., A.M.S., C.A.A.S., and J.S.K. organized sample collection, material transfer, and logistics. F.D.M., P.M., and C.B. did quality control, sample selection, and outlier detection. P.M., C.B., F.D.M., T.N.P., and F.B. performed bioinformatics analyses. P.M. and C.B. carried out data and statistical analyses and visualization. P.M. and F.M.A. drafted the initial manuscript with input from C.B., B.v.B., D.G.J.L., M.W., and M.K. The Global Sewage Consortium authors carried out sewage sampling, filled in metadata and shipped the samples to DTU. All authors helped to review and improve the manuscript. More

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