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As humans warm the planet, biodiversity is plummeting. These two global crises are connected in multiple ways. But the details of the intricate feedback loops between biodiversity decline and climate change are astonishingly under-studied.It is well known that climate extremes such as droughts and heatwaves can have devastating impacts on ecosystems and, in turn, that degraded ecosystems have a reduced capacity to protect humanity against the social and physical impacts of such events. Yet only a few such relationships have been probed in detail. Even less well known is whether biodiversity-depleted ecosystems will also have a negative effect on climate, provoking or exacerbating weather extremes.For us, a group of researchers living and working mainly in Central Europe, the wake-up call was the sequence of heatwaves of 2018, 2019 and 2022. It felt unreal to watch a floodplain forest suffer drought stress in Leipzig, Germany. Across Germany, more than 380,000 hectares of trees have now been damaged (see go.nature.com/3etrrnp; in German), and the forestry sector is struggling with how to plan restoration activities over the coming decades1. What could have protected these ecosystems against such extremes? And how will the resultant damage further impact our climate?
Nature-based solutions can help cool the planet — if we act now
In June 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) published their first joint report2, acknowledging the need for more collaborative work between these two domains. And some good policy moves are afoot: the new EU Forest Strategy for 2030, released in July 2021, and other high-level policy initiatives by the European Commission, formally recognize the multifunctional value of forests, including their role in regulating atmospheric processes and climate. But much more remains to be done.To thoroughly quantify the risk that lies ahead, ecologists, climate scientists, remote-sensing experts, modellers and data scientists need to work together. The upcoming meeting of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity in Montreal, Canada, in December is a good opportunity to catalyse such collaboration.Buffers and responsesWhen lamenting the decline in biodiversity, most people think first about the tragedy of species driven to extinction. There are more subtle changes under way, too.For instance, a study across Germany showed that over the past century, most plant species have declined in cover, with only a few increasing in abundance3. Also affected is species functionality4 — genetic diversity, and the diversity of form and structure that can make communities more or less efficient at taking up nutrients, resisting heat or surviving pathogen attacks.When entire ecosystems are transformed, their functionality is often degraded. They are left with less capacity to absorb pollution, store carbon dioxide, soak up water, regulate temperature and support vital functions for other organisms, including humans5. Conversely, higher levels of functional biodiversity increase the odds of an ecosystem coping with unexpected events, including climate extremes. This is known as the insurance effect6.The effect is well documented in field experiments and modelling studies. And there is mounting evidence of it in ecosystem responses to natural events. A global synthesis of various drought conditions showed, for instance, that forests were more resilient when trees with a greater diversity of strategies for using and transporting water lived together7.

Dead trees near Iserlohn, Germany, in April 2020 (left) and after felling in June 2021 (right).Credit: Ina Fassbender/AFP via Getty

However, biodiversity cannot protect all ecosystems against all kinds of impacts. In a study this year across plots in the United States and Canada, for example, mortality was shown to be higher in diverse forest ecosystems8. The proposed explanation for this unexpected result was that greater biodiversity could also foster more competition for resources. When extreme events induce stress, resources can become scarce in areas with high biomass and competition can suddenly drive mortality, overwhelming the benefits of cohabitation. Whether or not higher biodiversity protects an ecosystem from an extreme is highly site-specific.Some plants respond to drought by reducing photosynthesis and transpiration immediately; others can maintain business as usual for much longer, stabilizing the response of the ecosystem as a whole. So the exact response of ecosystems to extremes depends on interactions between the type of event, plant strategies, vegetation composition and structure.Which plant strategies will prevail is hard to predict and highly dependent on the duration and severity of the climatic extreme, and on previous extremes9. Researchers cannot fully explain why some forests, tree species or individual plants survive in certain regions hit by extreme climate conditions, whereas entire stands disappear elsewhere10. One study of beech trees in Germany showed that survival chances had a genomic basis11, yet it is not clear whether the genetic variability present in forests will be sufficient to cope with future conditions.And it can take years for ecosystem impacts to play out. The effects of the two consecutive hot drought years, 2018 and 2019, were an eye-opener for many of us. In Leipzig, tree growth declined, pathogens proliferated and ash and maple trees died. The double blow, interrupted by a mild winter, on top of the long-term loss of soil moisture, led to trees dying at 4–20 times the usual rate throughout Germany, depending on the species (see go.nature.com/3etrrnp; in German). The devastation peaked in 2020.Ecosystem changes can also affect atmospheric conditions and climate. Notably, land-use change can alter the brightness (albedo) of the planet’s surface and its capacity for heat exchange. But there are more-complex mechanisms of influence.Vegetation can be a source or sink for atmospheric substances. A study published in 2020 showed that vegetation under stress is less capable of removing ozone than are unstressed plants, leading to higher levels of air pollution12. Pollen and other biogenic particles emitted from certain plants can induce the freezing of supercooled cloud droplets, allowing ice in clouds to form at much warmer temperatures13, with consequences for rainfall14. Changes to species composition and stress can alter the dynamics of these particle emissions. Plant stress also modifies the emission of biogenic volatile organic gases, which can form secondary particles. Wildfires — enhanced by drought and monocultures — affect clouds, weather and climate through the emission of greenhouse gases and smoke particles. Satellite data show that afforestation can boost the formation of low-level, cooling cloud cover15 by enhancing the supply of water to the atmosphere.Research prioritiesAn important question is whether there is a feedback loop: will more intense, and more frequent, extremes accelerate the degradation and homogenization of ecosystems, which then, in turn, promote further climate extremes? So far, we don’t know.One reason for this lack of knowledge is that research has so far been selective: most studies have focused on the impacts of droughts and heatwaves on ecosystems. Relatively little is known about the impacts of other kinds of extremes, such as a ‘false spring’ caused by an early-season bout of warm weather, a late spring frost, heavy rainfall events, ozone maxima, or exposure to high levels of solar radiation during dry, cloudless weather.Researchers have no overview, much less a global catalogue, of how each dimension of biodiversity interacts with the full breadth of climate extremes in different combinations and at multiple scales. In an ideal world, scientists would know, for example, how the variation in canopy density, vegetation age, and species diversity protects against storm damage; and whether and how the diversity of canopy structures controls atmospheric processes such as cloud formation in the wake of extremes. Researchers need to link spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity with the responses of ecosystem processes to climate extremes.
Biodiversity needs every tool in the box: use OECMs
Creating such a catalogue is a huge challenge, particularly given the more frequent occurrence of extremes with little or no precedent16. Scientists will also need to account for the increasing likelihood of pile-ups of climate stressors. The ways in which ecosystems respond to compound events17 could be quite different. Researchers will have to study which facets of biodiversity (genetic, physiological, structural) are required to stabilize ecosystems and their functions against these onslaughts.There is at least one piece of good news: tools for data collection and analysis are improving fast, with huge advances over the past decade in satellite-based observations for both climate and biodiversity monitoring. The European Copernicus Earth-observation programme, for example — which includes the Sentinel 1 and 2 satellite fleet, and other recently launched missions that cover the most important wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum — offer metre-scale resolution observations of the biochemical status of plants and canopy structure. Atmospheric states are recorded in unprecedented detail, vertically and in time.Scientists must now make these data interoperable and integrate them with in situ observations. The latter is challenging. On the ground, a new generation of data are being collected by researchers and by citizen scientists18. For example, unique insights into plant responses to stress are coming from time-lapse photography of leaf orientation; accelerometer measures of movement patterns of stems have been shown to provide proxies for the drought stress of trees19.High-quality models are needed to turn these data into predictions. The development of functional ‘digital twins’ of the climate system is now in reach. These models replicate hydrometeorological processes at the metre scale, and are fast enough to allow for rapid scenario development and testing20. The analogous models for ecosystems are still in a more conceptual phase. Artificial-intelligence methods will be key here, to study links between climate extremes and biodiversity.Researchers can no longer afford to track global transformations of the Earth system in disciplinary silos. Instead, ecologists and climate scientists need to establish a joint agenda, so that humanity is properly forewarned: of the risks of removing biodiversity buffers against climate extremes, and of the risk of thereby amplifying these extremes. More

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Simulation experimental set upLaboratory monitoring of leakage migration process can provide an important basis for field tests. The designed and improved ERT device can better describe the migration range of leakage in soil41. In this experiment, a parallel potential monitoring device was used to improve the monitoring of leakage fluid migration. The simulation experiment in the laboratory is carried out in a (100 cm*100 cm*50 cm) plexiglass tank. Sand and clay shall be screened with a 2.36 mm square sieve, watered and compacted with a board to ensure that the soil layer is in close contact with the measuring electrode.Electrode arrangementThe ground wire of high-density electrical method instrument is connected to the electrodes arranged around the bottom of the tank as the power electrode C2, as shown in Fig. 2a. The host is connected to the electrode system. The electrode system consists of 47 electrode grids with a spacing of 0.08 m. The measuring electrode P1 is connected to the mainframe through a wire 0.05 m below the grid center. The geomembrane is located 0.03 m above the measuring electrode P1. The collection device is used as a monitoring system for various leachate. The arrangement of electrodes is shown in Fig. 2b. The power supply electrode C1 is placed at a certain depth in the middle of the saturated sand to provide a constant current. The location of electrode C1 and leakage point is shown in Fig. 2c. The layers from the bottom of the tank are silty clay, geomembrane, silty clay and saturated sand, as shown in Fig. 2d.Figure 2Set-up of leachate migration simulation experiment: (a) Schematic diagram of electrode C2 layout; (b) Schematic diagram of electrical system laying; (c) Position of electrode C1 and leakage point; (d) Schematic diagram of simulated experimental soil layer.Full size imageComposition of monitoring systemThe electrode system is used to monitor the background electric field and artificial electric field of the landfill site. In the experiment, the electrode system is laid in the clay layer under the geomembrane. It is composed of detection electrodes distributed in a grid at a certain distance.The electrical signal conversion system adjusts the measurement mode, sampling accuracy, acquisition frequency and other parameters of the electrode in the field according to the instructions of the mainframe, and transmits the collected electrical signal to the mainframe.The mainframe can control the operation of the monitoring system. The possible leachate points and their pollution range are determined by collecting data. The system mainly includes mainframe and its software system, power supply, etc., as shown in Fig. 3.Figure 3Se2432 parallel electric method instrument.Full size imageLeachate devicePlace 4 leakage bottles above the tank. No.1 and No.4 bottled water are used to simulate the leakage liquid formed by the direct infiltration of rainwater in slag through geomembrane and as a reference. Because Cl-1 is a typical pollutant in the landfill. No. 2 bottle containing 20 g/L NaCl solution is used to simulate inorganic salt leakage in urban life. No. 3 bottle containing 20 ml/L ethanol solution is used to simulate the leakage liquid containing a large amount of organic matter in municipal solid waste. The characteristics of leachate have been summarized in Table1.Table 1 The characteristics of leachate.Full size tableBefore the experiment, configure four solutions, close the injection, use an electric meter to check the conductivity of each measuring point. After each measuring point has no open circuit, supply power to the soil layer through the mainframe to measure the background electric field of the soil. Then open the injection, adjust the flow rate, release the solution at a fixed flow rate, record the soil electric field in the process of leakage every half an hour, collect the potential values of each measuring point, process the data through the potentiometry and potential difference method, and form the relevant potential horizontal profile and longitudinal section of the soil.Principle of potentiometric detection technologyWhen there are leakage points in the landfill, power is supplied to the landfill, and the current forms a current loop through the geomembrane. If there are n (n = 1,2,3…) leakage points in the geomembrane, the power supply current is I, and the artificial electric field will form a leakage electric field at the leakage point, which can be used as a point power supply.$$I = int dI = int j cdot dS$$
(1)
where I is the current intensity, j is the current density vector, and S is the area passing through the current.When there are n leakage points, I will be shunted. If a leakage point is regarded as a finite surface, the current intensity I as:$$I = {I_1} + {I_2} + cdot cdot cdot + {I_{text{n}}} = sumlimits_{i = 1}^n {int_{S_i} {jdS} }$$
(2)
Generally, the power supply current field of landfill site will be affected by the formation medium structure. It is assumed that the formation medium structure is composed of three layers, each layer has uniform properties and stable conductivity, and the layers from top to bottom are: landfill layer, with resistivity of ρ1. The saturated leakage liquid layer above the geomembrane has a resistivity of ρ2. The clay layer under the geomembrane has a resistivity of ρ3. The electrode C1 is arranged in the garbage layer for power supply, and the electrode C2 is arranged at the lower part of the geomembrane away from the electrode system area. The electrode C2 can be regarded as a far pole.Because of the ρ1  > ρ2, the conductivity of the saturated leakage liquid layer at the upper part of the geomembrane is better than that of the landfill layer, so that there is almost no reflected current between the ρ1 layer and the ρ2 layer, that is, the current generated by the power supply electrode C1 is all transmitted to the ρ2 layer. Because of the ρ3  > ρ2, it can be considered that the interface between ρ2 layer and ρ3 layer has both a reflection current, and a transmission current through the leakage point. The potential generated at the detection electrode P1 under the geomembrane is formed by the action of transmission current. The total potential of point P1 is obtained by the superposition of the potential of point power supply passing through n leakage points at P1.$${U_{P1}} = sumlimits_{i = 1}^n {frac{{{I_i}{rho_3}}}{{2pi {{text{r}}_{iP1}}}}}$$
(3)
Parallel potential difference methodThe test adopts pole–pole arrangement, and the calculation formula of apparent resistivity is as follows:$$rho = 2pi {text{aR}}$$
(4)
where ρ is apparent resistivity; a is the distance between electrodes C1 and P1; R is measuring resistivity.When there are loopholes in the geomembrane of the landfill, the leakage liquid will gradually penetrate into the soil layer under the geomembrane through the loopholes, resulting in the change of the conductivity of the soil layer under the geomembrane. The pole-pole acquisition mode of Se2432 parallel electrical instrument is used to obtain the original data (potential difference) of each measuring point on the grid. After current normalization, the apparent resistivity of the soil layer is obtained. The electrical properties of different depths of the soil layer can be obtained by inversion of the apparent resistivity data of the soil layer, so as to determine the occurrence point and distribution range of leakage.The monitoring grid is 5 × 5. The spacing between measuring points is 0.08 m. The measurement method adopted by Se2432 parallel electric method instrument is cross diagonal measurement method. Figure 4 shows that it only needs to measure the potential values on the measuring points on the horizontal, vertical and 45° diagonal lines.Figure 4Schematic diagram of cross-diagonal measurement method.Full size imageTheoretical calculation of test modelTheoretical results of 10 × 10 grid monitoringAccording to the experimental model and statistical data, the resistivity of the clay layer under the geomembrane is assumed ρ = 10 Ω· m, the resistivity ratio of tap water, NaCl solution and ethanol solution after penetrating into the soil layer ρNo.1:ρNo.2:ρNo.3 = 5:3:10. If the four leakage points set by the model are regarded as four conductive resistors, the ratio of the current passing through the four leakage points is INo. 1:INo. 2:INo. 3:INo. 4 = 6:10:3:6.The calculation model is 10 × 10 grid, and the spacing of measuring points is 0.05 m. The potential value on each measuring point is calculated according to Eq. 3, and the obtained data is processed with surfer software to obtain the potential contour map, as shown in Fig. 5. Among them, points 1, 2, 3 and 4 are the leakage positions of water, NaCl solution, ethanol solution and water respectively, and the spacing between leakage points is 0.15 m.Figure 510 × 10 Grid theory detection potential contour map.Full size imageFigure 5 shows that the leakage fields formed by the four kinds of leaking liquids interfere with each other from the theoretical calculation results. The leachate current at point 2 is larger, the high potential closed loop is obvious, and its center corresponds to the leakage center. The reason for this is that the NaCl solution contains conductive particles that increase the conductivity of the leak point. Point 1 and 4 are the same as water, and the leakage electric field is almost the same. Its closed loop is obvious, and the high potential center also corresponds to their leakage position. There is almost no closed loop effect at point 3 under the influence of 1, 2 and 4. The results show that the leakage field formed by high resistance leakage liquid is not easy to be detected by potentiometric detection, and low resistance leakage is suitable to be detected by potentiometric detection.Theoretical results of 12 × 12 grid monitoringThe resistivity of the clay layer under the geomembrane is assumed ρ = 10Ω·m. In consideration of the mutual influence between the leachate and appropriately reduce its influence effect, the resistivity ratio of water, NaCl solution, and ethanol solution after penetrating into the soil layer is set as ρNo.1:ρNo.2:ρNo.3 = 20:15:24, the ratio of the current passing through the four leakage points is INo.1:INo.2:INo.3:INo.4 = 6:8:5:6. And adjust the distance between the two points to 0.28 m. 12 × 12 grid was used for detection, and the spacing of detection points is 0.04 m. Calculate the potential value of each detection point according to Eq. 3, and use Surfer to obtain the detection contour map of four kinds of leakage, as shown in Fig. 6.Figure 612 × 12 Grid theory detection potential contour map.Full size imageTheoretical calculation results show that when the distance between the leakage points is large and the distance between the detection points is small, the potentiometric method can detect the leakage position of various leachates well. At the same time, the diffusion range of different leachates in the same plane is roughly the same, and they all gradually diffuse outward from the center of the leakage point, and the potential value gradually decrease. Point 2 has the largest potential closed loop range, which also has a certain impact on the leakage points of adjacent points 1 and 3. Point 1 and point 4 are water leakage. Affected by different leakage liquids, the leakage electric field of the two same leakage liquids is obviously different. The potential closed loop range of point 1 is larger than that of point 4. Point 3 is the leakage of ethanol solution. Because its resistance is the largest, the range of potential closed loop is the smallest.Figure 7 shows that the leakage fields around the leachates are funnel-shaped, and its size is related to the type of leachate. Therefore, different network density should be designed for different types of leakage liquid, so as to use the most economical scheme to detect the leakage point.Figure 712 × 12 Grid theory detects potential 3d view.Full size imageInterpretation and discussion of resultsLaboratory simulation experiment researchFigure 8a shows the background electric field potential of soil layer. The four injection pipes are opened at the same time and adjusted to the same flow rate. Under the condition of continuous leakage, monitor the leakage field potential at an interval of 1 h. Figure 8b shows the leakage electric field potential value for 1 h. Reduce the injection pipes flow rate to 1/2 of the initial value. Figure 8c shows the monitoring results of 2 h soil layer leakage field potential. Figure 8d shows the soil leakage field potential monitored after 30 min of sealing the injection pipes.Figure 8Leakage field potential diagram of soil layer: (a) Background electric field of soil layer; (b) Potential distribution of soil layer after 1 h of leakage; (c) Potential distribution of soil layer after 2 h of leakage; (d) Potential distribution of soil layer after closing the injection tube for 30 min.Full size imageFigure 8a shows that the background potential contour of the experimental soil layer is at a lower value. Few current lines pass through the monitoring area. A dense closed potential circle of high potential value is formed at point 2. The current flow at point 2 is greater than the other points 1, 3 and 4. The analysis result may be that in the process of watering and compaction, the clay layer under the geomembrane is not uniform, and the compaction degree of the soil layer is different, resulting in different potential values ​​obtained by monitoring. The permeability at point 2 is better than other points, so when the flow rate of the leakage liquid is large, the leakage liquid under the geomembrane gathers near point 2 and spreads out around. After the clay is watered and compacted, the soil compaction is small and the pore water content is large, resulting in a high potential abnormal area in the lower left corner of point 3.Point 2 forms a closed loop of anomaly potential contour much higher than the background electric field, while the value of potential contour coil at leakage point 3 is lower than the surrounding value. It can be analyzed that positions 2 and 3 are leakage points. The leachate at point 2 is a high concentration NaCl solution containing more conductive particles, which will reduce the resistivity of the soil layer under the geomembrane at point 2. Thus, the passing current is increased to form a high potential closed loop. The leachate at point 3 is ethanol solution, which will increase the resistivity of the soil layer under the geomembrane at point 3. So as to reduce the passing current and form a low potential closed loop. Figure 8b shows that the potential contour is consistent with the influence of NaCl solution and ethanol solution on the soil layer under the geomembrane. It can be concluded that point 2 and point 3 are leakage points. The electric field formed after water leakage at point 1 and point 4 cannot clearly distinguish the leakage points.During the monitoring process, the leachate was continuously released from the injection pipe, and the results reflected the dynamic characteristics. Figure 8b shows the phenomenon that the leachate from point 1 and point 4 aggregates around point 2, which is consistent with the inference of better permeability at point 2. Figure 8b,c show that when the flow rate of the leachate is changed and the flow rate of the injection pipe is reduced, the high-potential region of the entire electric field is reduced. Under the influence of gravity, the leachate will migrate longitudinally, and the closed-loop abnormally high-potential regions and abnormally low-potential regions at points 2 and 3 also decrease.Compared with the surrounding potential contours, the difference is more obvious. Figure 8d shows that when the injection pipe stops leaking for a period of time, the leachate migrates longitudinally along the leakage point. At this time, the electric field of the soil layer is similar to the original background electric field, but the potential value is higher than the background electric field, indicating that the leachate is stagnant in the pores of the soil layer, it is the result of changing the electrical properties of the soil layer. The parallel potential method can collect the potential value of each point in the field at one time, which provides a basis for real-time monitoring of landfill leachate.Figure 9 shows the inversion results of the horizontal section of the experimental model. The blue area corresponds to the distribution range of the low resistance anomaly. There are no jump or distortion points in the profile. The resistivity in the longitudinal direction basically shows a change from low to high. The upper layer seepage liquid migrates, and the bottom soil layer is characterized by low humidity and high resistivity. The low-resistance areas formed by the leakage of NaCl solution are widely distributed in the horizontal section. The distribution range is 0–0.28 m, and the migration scale of the leakage liquid can be clearly seen. The morphological characteristics of water leakage in different parts are basically the same. The distribution range is 0–0.18 m. The leakage of ethanol solution is only reflected at 0–0.06 m, and the distribution range is the smallest at the same depth. The ethanol solution also had the slowest migration rate.Figure 9Inversion map of plane section at different depths.Full size imageFigure 10 shows the inversion results of the X–Z longitudinal section of the test model. The two apparent resistivity profiles at Y = 0.24 m and Y = 0.32 m show that there is no low-resistance area in the shallow layer on the soil layer, indicating that the geomembrane in this area is not damaged. The low resistance zone in the middle is caused by the lateral migration of leakage fluid. The low-resistance anomaly area at the top of the profile can be judged as a leak point or formed by the migration of nearby leachate. Combined with the horizontal section, the leakage depth is similar, and the lateral migration speed of leachate is faster than the longitudinal migration speed. Four leak points can be distinguished, delineating the general location of the leak.Figure 10X–Z longitudinal section on different Y axes.Full size imagePhysical model experimentThe potential value of each electrode was monitored after 2 h of leakage, and the resistivity profiles at different positions were obtained by the potential difference method.It can be seen from Fig. 11 that the potential difference method can monitor the leakage of leachate in different directions. The morphological features of the plume formed by the downward migration of the leak point are approximately funnel-shaped in longitudinal section. The affected area of ​​the soil layer can be obtained in time. Figure 11b shows that the potential difference at the monitoring point is very different on both sides. After 2 h of leakage, a large amount of leakage liquid exists in the soil layer. When the water content in the soil layer increases, the diffusion rate of the ethanol solution increases, showing high resistance characteristics. At the same time, due to the action of gravity, there is a lot of vertical migration, and the potential value changes greatly. The profile clearly shows that the distribution area of ​​high potential difference is large, and the distribution of low potential is small. Figure 11c shows that since the migration rate of leachate in the horizontal direction is greater than that in the vertical direction, the potential difference of the monitoring point in the middle region is smaller, and a closed region of a high-potential circle is formed in the middle. The difference between the two results in a smaller potential difference area. Figure 11d shows that almost all the low-potential areas on the monitoring point are on the left side, because the leakage rate of NaCl solution in the horizontal direction is similar to that in the vertical direction under the condition of good soil compaction. At this time, a large number of conductive particles are contained, resulting in a large high-potential region. The difference between the two forms a large area of ​​low potential difference on the left. This is in good agreement with the lower resistance characteristics of the NaCl solution. Figure 11e shows that the two low-resistance regions correspond to the two leakage centers. The low potential difference region is formed by migration around the leak point. The migration speed in the horizontal direction is similar to that in the vertical direction, and the water migration speed on the left is slower than that of the sodium chloride solution on the right. Figure 11e,f show that the monitoring results are the same, but the resulting potential difference is also increased. This is affected by the distance between the monitoring point and the leak point. When the monitored point and the leakage point are located on the same section, the soil layer is the most severely affected area by leakage. Through the change of the potential difference, the leakage range and the location of the leakage point can be better judged.Figure 11Electrical resistivity tomograms of profile: (a) Resistivity of the slitting profile Y = 0; (b) Resistivity of the slitting profile Y = 0.08; (c) Resistivity of the slitting profile Y = 0.16; (d) Resistivity of the slitting profile Y = 0.24; (e) Resistivity of the slitting profile Y = 0.32; (f) Resistivity of the slitting profile Y = 0.4.Full size image More

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Extent and location of critical natural assetsCritical natural assets providing the 12 local NCP (Fig. 1a) occupy only 30% (41 million km2) of total land area (excluding Antarctica) and 24% (34 million km2) of marine Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), reflecting the steep slope of the aggregate NCP accumulation curve (Fig. 1b). Despite this modest proportion of global land area, the shares of countries’ land areas that are designated as critical can vary substantially. The 20 largest countries require only 24% of their land area, on average, to maintain 90% of current levels of NCP, while smaller countries (10,000 to 1.5 million km2) require on average 40% of their land area (Supplementary Data 1). This high variability in the NCP–area relationship is primarily driven by the proportion of countries’ land areas made up by natural assets (that is, excluding barren, ice and snow, and developed lands), but even when this is accounted for, there are outliers (Extended Data Fig. 2). Outliers may be due to spatial patterns in human population density (for example, countries with dense population centres and vast expanses with few people, such as Canada and Russia, require far less area to achieve NCP targets) or large ecosystem heterogeneity (if greater ecosystem diversity yields higher levels of diverse NCP in a smaller proportion of area, which may explain patterns in Chile and Australia).The highest-value critical natural assets (the locations delivering the highest magnitudes of NCP in the smallest area, denoted by the darkest blue or green shades in Fig. 1c) often coincide with diverse, relatively intact natural areas near or upstream from large numbers of people. Many of these high-value areas coincide with areas of greatest spatial congruence among multiple NCP (Extended Data Fig. 3). Spatially correlated pairs of local NCP (Supplementary Table 4) include those related to water (flood risk reduction with nitrogen retention and nitrogen with sediment retention); forest products (timber and fuelwood); and those occurring closer to human-modified habitats (pollination with nature access and with nitrogen retention). Coastal risk reduction, forage production for grazing, and riverine fish harvest are the most spatially distinct from other local NCP. In the marine realm, there is substantial overlap of fisheries with coastal risk reduction and reef tourism (though not between the latter two, which each have much smaller critical areas than exist for fisheries).Number of people benefitting from critical natural assetsWe estimate that ~87% of the world’s current population, 6.4 billion people, benefit directly from at least one of the 12 local NCP provided by critical natural assets, while only 16% live on the lands providing these benefits (and they may also benefit; Fig. 2a). To quantify the number of beneficiaries of critical natural assets, we spatially delineate their benefitting areas (which varies on the basis of NCP: for example, areas downstream, within the floodplain, in low-lying areas near the coast, or accessible by a short travel). While our optimization selects for the provision of 90% of the current value of each NCP, it is not guaranteed that 90% of the world’s population would benefit (since it does not include considerations for redundancy in adjacent pixels and therefore many of the areas selected benefit the same populations), so it is notable that an estimated 87% do. This estimate of ‘local’ beneficiaries probably underestimates the total number of people benefitting because it includes only NCP for which beneficiaries can be spatially delineated to avoid double-counting, yet it is striking that the vast majority, 6.1 billion people, live within 1 h travel (by road, rail, boat or foot, taking the fastest path17) of critical natural assets, and more than half of the world’s population lives downstream of these areas (Fig. 2b). Material NCP are often delivered locally, but many also enter global supply chains, making it difficult to delineate beneficiaries spatially for these NCP. However, past studies have calculated that globally more than 54 million people benefit directly from the timber industry18, 157 million from riverine fisheries19, 565 million from marine fisheries20 and 1.3 billion from livestock grazing21, and across the tropics alone 2.7 billion are estimated to be dependent on nature for one or more basic needs22.Fig. 2: People benefitting from and living on critical natural assets (CNA).a,b, ‘Local’ beneficiaries were calculated through the intersection of areas benefitting from different NCP, to avoid double-counting people in areas of overlap; only those NCP for which beneficiaries could be spatially delineated were included (that is, not material NCP that enter global supply chains: fisheries, timber, livestock or crop pollination). Bars show percentages of total population globally and for large and small countries (a) or the percentage of relevant population globally (b). Numbers inset in bars show millions of people making up that percentage. Numbers to the right of bars in b show total relevant population (in millions of people, equivalent to total global population from Landscan 2017 for population within 1 h travel or downstream, but limited to the total population living within 10 km of floodplains or along coastlines 80%) of their populations benefitting from critical natural assets, but small countries have much larger proportions of their populations living within the footprint of critical natural assets than do large countries (Fig. 2a and Supplementary Data 2). When people live in these areas, and especially when current levels of use of natural assets are not sustainable, regulations or incentives may be needed to maintain the benefits these assets provide. While protected areas are an important conservation strategy, they represent only 15% of the critical natural assets for local NCP (Supplementary Table 5); additional areas should not necessarily be protected using designations that restrict human access and use, or they could cease to provide some of the diverse values that make them so critical23. Other area-based conservation measures, such as those based on Indigenous and local communities’ governance systems, Payments for Ecosystem Services programmes, and sustainable use of land- and seascapes, can all contribute to maintaining critical flows of NCP in natural and semi-natural ecosystems24.Overlaps between local and global prioritiesUnlike the 12 local NCP prioritized here at the national scale, certain benefits of natural assets accrue continentally or even globally. We therefore optimize two additional NCP at a global scale: vulnerable terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (that is, the amount of total ecosystem carbon lost in a typical disturbance event25, hereafter ‘ecosystem carbon’) and vegetation-regulated atmospheric moisture recycling (the supply of atmospheric moisture and precipitation sustained by plant life26, hereafter ‘moisture recycling’). Over 80% of the natural asset locations identified as critical for the 12 local NCP are also critical for the two global NCP (Fig. 3). The spatial overlap between critical natural assets for local and global NCP accounts for 24% of land area, with an additional 14% of land area critical for global NCP that is not considered critical for local NCP (Extended Data Fig. 4). Together, critical natural assets for securing both local and global NCP require 44% of total global land area. When each NCP is optimized individually (carbon and moisture NCP at the global scale; the other 12 at the country scale), the overlap between carbon or moisture NCP and the other NCP exceeds 50% for all terrestrial (and freshwater) NCP except coastal risk reduction (which overlaps only 36% with ecosystem carbon, 5% with moisture recycling; Supplementary Table 4).Fig. 3: Spatial overlaps between critical natural assets for local and global NCP.Red and teal denote where critical natural assets for global NCP (providing 90% of ecosystem carbon and moisture recycling globally) or for local NCP (providing 90% of the 12 NCP listed in Fig. 1), respectively, but not both, occur; gold shows areas where the two overlap (24% of the total area). Together, local and global critical natural assets account for 44% of total global land area (excluding Antarctica). Grey areas show natural assets not defined as ‘critical’ by this analysis, though still providing some values to certain populations. White areas were excluded from the optimization.Full size imageSynergies can also be found between NCP and biodiversity and cultural diversity. Critical natural assets for local NCP at national levels overlap with part or all of the area of habitat (AOH, mapped on the basis of species range maps, habitat preferences and elevation27) for 60% of 28,177 terrestrial vertebrates (Supplementary Data 3). Birds (73%) and mammals (66%) are better represented than reptiles and amphibians (44%). However, these critical natural assets represent only 34% of the area for endemic vertebrate species (with 100% of their AOH located within a given country; Supplementary Data 3) and 16% of the area for all vertebrates if using a more conservative representation target framework based on the IUCN Red List criteria (though, notably, achieving Red List representation targets is impossible for 24% of species without restoration or other expansion of existing AOH; Supplementary Data 4). Cultural diversity (proxied by linguistic diversity) has far higher overlaps with critical natural assets than does biodiversity; these areas intersect 96% of global Indigenous and non-migrant languages28 (Supplementary Data 5). The degree to which languages are represented in association with critical natural assets is consistent across most countries, even at the high end of language diversity (countries containing >100 Indigenous and non-migrant languages, such as Indonesia, Nigeria and India). This high correspondence provides further support for the importance of safeguarding rights to access critical natural assets, especially for Indigenous cultures that benefit from and help maintain them. Despite the larger land area required for maintaining the global NCP compared with local NCP, global NCP priority areas overlap with slightly fewer languages (92%) and with only 2% more species (60% of species AOH), although a substantially greater overlap is seen with global NCP if Red List criteria are considered (36% compared with 16% for local NCP; Supplementary Data 4). These results provide different insights than previous efforts at smaller scales, particularly a similar exercise in Europe that found less overlap with priority areas for biodiversity and NCP29. However, the 40% of all vertebrate species whose habitats did not overlap with critical natural assets could drive very different patterns if biodiversity were included in the optimization.Although these 14 NCP are not comprehensive of the myriad ways that nature benefits and is valued by people23, they capture, spatially and thematically, many elements explicitly mentioned in the First Draft of the CBD’s post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework13: food security, water security, protection from hazards and extreme events, livelihoods and access to green and blue spaces. Our emphasis here is to highlight the contributions of natural and semi-natural ecosystems to human wellbeing, specifically contributions that are often overlooked in mainstream conservation and development policies around the world. For example, considerations for global food security often include only crop production rather than nature’s contributions to it via pollination or vegetation-mediated precipitation, or livestock production without partitioning out the contribution of grasslands from more intensified feed production.Gaps and next stepsOur synthesis of these 14 NCP represents a substantial advance beyond other global prioritizations that include NCP limited to ecosystem carbon stocks, fresh water and marine fisheries30,31,32, though still falls short of including all important contributions of nature such as its relational values33. Despite the omission of many NCP that were not able to be mapped, further analyses indicate that results are fairly robust to inclusion of additional NCP. Dropping one of the 12 local NCP at a time results in More

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