Philippa Kaur

Knowing the distribution of species is crucial for effective conservation action. However, accurate and high-resolution spatial data are only available for a limited number of species1,2. For mammals and birds, the most comprehensive and widely used global distribution dataset is the set of range maps compiled as part of the assessments for the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. These represent each species’ distributional limits and tend to minimize omission errors (i.e. false absences) at the expense of commission errors (i.e. false presences)3,4. Therefore, they often contain sizeable areas not regularly occupied by the species.Maps of the Area of Habitat (AOH; previously known as Extent of Suitable Habitat, ESH) complement range maps by indicating potential occupancy within the range, thereby reducing commission errors5. AOH is defined as ‘the habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range’5. These models are produced by subtracting areas unsuitable for the species within their range, using information on each species’ associations with habitat and elevation5,6,7,8. Comprehensive sets of AOH maps have been produced in the past for mammals6 and amphibians7, as well as subsets of birds8,9. The percentage of a species’ range covered by the AOH varies depending on the methodology used to associate species to their habitats, and their habitats to land-cover, the coarseness of the range map, the region in which the species is distributed, and the species’ habitat specialization and elevation limits5. For example, Rondinini et al.6 found that, when considering elevation and land cover features for terrestrial mammals, the AOH comprised, on average, 55% of the range. Ficetola et al.7 obtained a similar percentage when analyzing amphibians (55% for forest species, 42% for open habitat species and 61% for habitat generalists). Beresford et al.8 found that AOH covered a mean of 27.6% of the range maps of 157 threatened African bird species. In 2019, Brooks et al.5 proposed a formal definition and standardized methodology to produce AOH, limiting the inputs to habitat preferences, elevation limits, and geographical range.AOH production requires knowledge of which habitat types a species occurs in and their location within the range1. Information on habitat preference is documented for each species assessed in the IUCN Red List10, following the IUCN Habitats Classification Scheme11. However, the IUCN does not define habitat classes in a spatially explicit way, therefore, we used a recently published translation table that associates IUCN Habitat Classification Scheme classes with land cover classes12. Species’ elevation limits were also extracted from the IUCN Red List.We developed AOH maps for 5,481 terrestrial mammal species and 10,651 terrestrial bird species (Fig. 1). For 1,816 bird species defined by BirdLife International as migratory, we developed separate AOH maps, for the resident, breeding, and non-breeding ranges, according to the migratory distribution of the species (Fig. 2). The maps are presented in a regular latitude/longitude grid with an approximate 100 m resolution at the equator. On average, the AOH covers 66 ± 28% of the geographical range for mammals and 64 ± 27% for birds. We used the resulting AOH maps to produce four global species richness layers for: mammals, birds, globally threatened mammals and globally threatened birds13 (Fig. 3).Fig. 1Spatial distribution maps of Tangara abbas. Maps represent (a) the geographic range21, and (b) the Area of Habitat (AOH) of the species. The AOH was produced by subtracting unsuitable habitats from the geographical range. This species’ habitats are forest and terrestrial artificial habitats and has elevation range of 0 – 1600 m.Full size imageFig. 2Spatial distribution maps of Cardellina rubrifrons, divided into resident, breeding and non-breeding areas for this migratory species. Maps represent (a) the geographic range21, and (b) the Area of Habitat (AOH) of the species. The AOH was produced by subtracting unsuitable habitats from the ranges. This species is a forest species with elevation rangelimits of 1500 – 3100 m.Full size imageFig. 3Global species richness maps for (a) terrestrial mammals (considering 5,481species) and (b) terrestrial birds (considering 10,651 species). Calculated by overlaying all species’ AOH per class, resulting inon the number of species at each grid cell, latitude/longitude grid at a resolution of 1°/1008 or approximately 100 m at the equator (EPSG:4326) with the ellipsoid WGS 1984.Full size imageThe AOH maps presented in this paper are more useful for some purposes than global species distribution models, as they reduce and standardize commissions14. They are especially useful for not well-known and wide-range species. However, we note that for well-known species alternative sources may have more accurate distributions15. Moreover, AOHs are affected by the bias and errors of the underlying data, especially relevant errors associated with documentation of species’ habitats and elevations, and the translation of habitats into land cover classes, given that habitat is a complex multidimensional concept that is challenging to match to land-cover classes12, and that the current version of the IUCN Habitat Classification Scheme on IUCN’s website is described as a draft version11.The AOH maps have multiple conservation applications5,16,17, such as assessing species’ distributions and extinction risk, improving the accuracy of conservation planning, monitoring habitat loss and fragmentation, and guiding conservation actions. AOH has been proposed as an additional spatial metric to be documented in the Red List5, and is used for the identification of Key Biodiversity Areas18. More

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Building from this background the NAM took on these issues as its first-ever grand challenge, as a critical issue of import and urgency for us all. In 2018, the NAM empaneled an international, independent and multidisciplinary commission to create a global roadmap for healthy longevity, complete with evidence-based, targeted and actionable recommendations to move societies forward from an almost-exclusive focus on ‘coping with aging populations’ toward enabling individuals and societies to age successfully, and to reap the economic and societal benefits of longevity. The commission offers a way forward for governments and societies by beginning with recommendations for the next five years, and how these solutions can be financially sustainable through the creation of a virtuous cycle.To support these goals, the commission was to “(1) comprehensively address the challenges and opportunities presented by global aging population; (2) catalyze breakthrough ideas and research that will extend the human healthspan; and (3) generate transformative and scalable innovations world wide”8. The resulting comprehensive report, which was delayed in good measure by the COVID-19 pandemic, was released in June 2022 (ref. 8). We report here a summary of the high-level vision, goals, findings and recommendations of this global roadmap.The evidence for opportunities of longevity and the costs of inactionWe are seeing longer lives with increasing years spent in ill health (that is, the decompression of morbidity)9. The implications of longevity without health are costly ones for the individual, their families and for society. By contrast, scientific evidence shows that the majority of chronic diseases are preventable, and that prevention works at every age and stage of life. Further, the subset of individuals who are the beneficiaries of cumulative health-promoting conditions across the life course are demonstrating healthy longevity, defined as “the state in which years in good health approach the biological lifespan, with physical, cognitive and social functioning, enabling well-being across populations”8. However, only a minority of people in any country have the benefit of the necessary investments that promote health, and disparities in access to these investments across the life course are a major cause of unhealthy longevity. The costs of inaction in the face of widening disparities include the high risk of young people aging with more ill health, and the attendant costs to them and society.Further, the commission reports that when people have health and function in older age, the considerable cognitive and socioemotional capabilities and expertise that accrue with aging, and the prosocial goals of older age, constitute human and social capital assets that are unprecedented in both nature and scale. Contrary to disproven myths, workforce participation not only brings these valuable capabilities (such that intergenerational teams in the workplace are more productive and innovative than single-age-group teams), but older people working is also associated with more jobs for younger individuals10. In the USA and EU, it has been shown that older adults contribute 7% of gross domestic product (GDP) through paid work and the economic value of volunteering and caregiving11, even before opportunities are specifically expanded for the increasing older population. Societies that recognize this potential and invest to create both healthy longevity and the societal organizations and policies through which older adults can contribute to societal good will develop the opportunity for all ages to thrive. The return on investment will be to create older ages with health, function, dignity, meaning, purpose and opportunities — for those who desire it — to work longer, care for others or contribute in ways that they value to their community and future generations.The definition, principles and vision of ‘Vision 2050’ for healthy longevityThe global roadmap builds on the WHO ‘Decade of Healthy Ageing’, the UN Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 and other reports. It sets out principles for achieving healthy longevity using data and meaningful metrics to track achievement of outcomes and guide decision making. The report offers a vision empowered by the evidence: that, by 2050, societies will value the capabilities and assets of older people; all people will have the opportunity to live long lives with health and function; barriers to full participation by older people in society will have been solved; and that older people, with such health, will have the opportunity to engage in meaningful and productive activities. In turn, this societal engagement will create unprecedented social, human and economic capital, contributing to intergenerational well-being and cohesion, and to GDP.Implementing Vision 2050Accomplishing this vision demands ‘all-of-society’ intent — with aligned goals for healthy longevity and transformative action across public, private and academic sectors, and all of civil society and communities — and the implementation of evidence across the full and extending life course. Transforming only one component or sector (for example, health systems) will not be sufficient to create healthy longevity or its full opportunities. Rather, given that nations are complex systems, this vision for our future requires governmental leadership and transformation of all sectors of our complex societal system (Fig. 1).Fig. 1: Relevant actors for an all-of-society approach to healthy longevity.Healthy longevity requires government leadership and cooperation across all sectors. Adapted with permission from figure S-2 of ref. 8.Full size imageInvestment for healthy longevity — across the enabling sectors of health systems, social infrastructure and protections, the physical environment, and work and volunteering contributions — will require intentional planning and leadership to transform those components in tandem, and to resolve disrupters such as ageism, the social determinants of health and inequity, and pollution. These investments across all sectors will create the conditions for achieving healthy longevity and build new capital (human, social and economic) that will benefit all of society. As a result of these investments, society will see younger people thrive and move into a position to age with healthy longevity; those individuals who are already older will be recognized as valuable contributors to society in a ‘pay-it-forward’ stage of life. The underpinning social compact between citizens and government will support valuing each age group’s capabilities and goals, and the building of a society of well-being and cohesion across generations. This is at the center of the virtuous cycle for healthy longevity (Fig. 2)Fig. 2: The virtuous cycle of healthy longevity.Healthy longevity (top) is an outcome of a virtuous cycle, itself contributing to capital development (bottom left). Bottom right, capital (human, financial and social) supports enablers (work, physical environment, health systems and social infrastructure). The enablers propel the cycle, contributing to healthy longevity. Intentional investment for healthy longevity across all enabling sectors will create new capital that will benefit all of society. Adapted with permission from figure 1-4 of ref. 8.Full size imageGoals for initiating the transformation to healthy longevityThe commission identified the following changes that should occur from now to 2027 to start transformation of all of society, towards Vision 2050 and the creation of healthy longevity for all:

Creating social cohesion, social engagement and addressing the social determinants of health through social infrastructure are among the most effective determinants of slowed aging and the prevention of chronic conditions across the life course. Financial security in older age is essential for all.

Governments, the private sector and civil society should partner to design physical environments and infrastructure that are user-centered, and function as cohesion-enabling intergenerational communities for healthy longevity. Initiatives should focus on the inclusion of older people in the design, creating public spaces that promote social cohesion and intergenerational connection as well as mobility, physical activity and access to food, transportation, social services and engagement.

By 2027, governments should develop strategies and plans to arrive at adequately sized, geriatrically knowledgeable public health, clinical and long-term care workforces, and an integration of the pillars of the health system and social services. Together, these dimensions would foster and extend years of good health and support the diverse health needs and well-being of older people.

Governments should work to build the dividend of health longevity in collaboration with the business sector and civil society, to develop policies, incentives, and supportive systems that enable and encourage lifelong learning, and greater opportunities and necessary skills to engage in meaningful work or community volunteering across the lifespan.

We summarize the commission’s recommended goals for each of these sectors in brief in Box 1. Across all sectors, the key first steps that the commission identified are ones that can resolve obstacles to change and plan the change needed to shift multiple complex systems through both top-down and bottom-up approaches, in ways appropriate to each country and context. These initiatives should create enough momentum to foster early returns on investment and optimism to propel sustained investment for subsequent stages. This would need to begin for all governments by 2023, establishing calls to action to develop and implement data-driven, all-of-society plans to build the systems, policies, organizations and infrastructure needed, and for tracking change.Box 1 Goals for 2022–2027 to initiate the transformation to healthy longevityThese goals are reproduced from Global Roadmap for Healthy Longevity8.
Social infrastructure

Develop evidence-based multipronged strategies to reduce ageism against all groups.

Develop plans for ensuring basic financial security for all older people.

Develop strategies to increase financial literacy and mechanisms for promoting working longer, pension options and savings over the life course.

Plan opportunities for purposeful and meaningful engagement by older people at the family, community and societal levels.

Physical environment

At the societal level, improve broadband accessibility to reduce the digital divide and develop public transportation solutions that address first- and last-mile transportation.

At the city level, implement mitigation strategies to reduce the negative effects of the physical environment and related emergencies on older people (for example, air pollution and climate-induced events, including extreme heat and flooding) and design environments for connection and cohesion.

At the neighborhood level, promote and measure innovative policy solutions for healthy longevity, including affordable housing and intergenerational living, zoning and design for connection and cohesion, and the enabling of social capital.

At the home level, update physical infrastructure and policies to address affordability, provide coliving arrangements that match people’s goals and needs, and resolve insufficiencies and inefficiencies in housing stock.

Health systems

Establish healthy longevity as a major goal.

Increase investments in public health systems, which are needed to promote health and prevent disease, disability and injury at the population level, across the full life course. This may require rebalancing investments between this type of public health and medical care, recognizing that such public health is a public good and, as such, tends to be underinvested in.

Provide adequate primary care that includes preventive screening, addresses risk factors for chronic conditions and promotes positive health behaviors, and offers a continuum of medical care, including geriatrically knowledgeable care for older adults.

Make culturally sensitive, person-centered and equitable long-term care systems available, which (to the degree possible) offer dignity and honor people’s preferences about care settings.

Building the healthy longevity dividend

Governments, in collaboration with the business sector and civil society, should design (1) work environments and develop new policies that enable and encourage older adults who want or need to remain in the work force longer, and (2) engagement opportunities that strengthen communities at every stage of life.

Governments, employers and educational institutions should prioritize redesigning education systems to support lifelong learning and training, and invest in the science of learning and training for middle-aged and older adults.

Pilot innovations that incentivize and allow middle-aged and older adults to retool for multiple careers and/or participate as volunteers across their lifespan in roles with meaning and purpose. More