Philippa Kaur

Alpha diversity differences among communitiesNematode gut microbiomes were assigned into their respective species categories of E. antarcticus and P. murrayi based on 18S host data that was consistent with morphology (see Methods “Microinvertebrate haplotypes”). In contrast, due to recovery of three undiscernible 18S tardigrade haplotypes, the gut microbiomes were assigned to Tardigrada. Mat bacterial communities were significantly (Tukey’s HSD, P  0.65, χ2(1)  0.38, χ2(3)  More

As humans warm the planet, biodiversity is plummeting. These two global crises are connected in multiple ways. But the details of the intricate feedback loops between biodiversity decline and climate change are astonishingly under-studied.It is well known that climate extremes such as droughts and heatwaves can have devastating impacts on ecosystems and, in turn, that degraded ecosystems have a reduced capacity to protect humanity against the social and physical impacts of such events. Yet only a few such relationships have been probed in detail. Even less well known is whether biodiversity-depleted ecosystems will also have a negative effect on climate, provoking or exacerbating weather extremes.For us, a group of researchers living and working mainly in Central Europe, the wake-up call was the sequence of heatwaves of 2018, 2019 and 2022. It felt unreal to watch a floodplain forest suffer drought stress in Leipzig, Germany. Across Germany, more than 380,000 hectares of trees have now been damaged (see go.nature.com/3etrrnp; in German), and the forestry sector is struggling with how to plan restoration activities over the coming decades1. What could have protected these ecosystems against such extremes? And how will the resultant damage further impact our climate?
Nature-based solutions can help cool the planet — if we act now
In June 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) published their first joint report2, acknowledging the need for more collaborative work between these two domains. And some good policy moves are afoot: the new EU Forest Strategy for 2030, released in July 2021, and other high-level policy initiatives by the European Commission, formally recognize the multifunctional value of forests, including their role in regulating atmospheric processes and climate. But much more remains to be done.To thoroughly quantify the risk that lies ahead, ecologists, climate scientists, remote-sensing experts, modellers and data scientists need to work together. The upcoming meeting of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity in Montreal, Canada, in December is a good opportunity to catalyse such collaboration.Buffers and responsesWhen lamenting the decline in biodiversity, most people think first about the tragedy of species driven to extinction. There are more subtle changes under way, too.For instance, a study across Germany showed that over the past century, most plant species have declined in cover, with only a few increasing in abundance3. Also affected is species functionality4 — genetic diversity, and the diversity of form and structure that can make communities more or less efficient at taking up nutrients, resisting heat or surviving pathogen attacks.When entire ecosystems are transformed, their functionality is often degraded. They are left with less capacity to absorb pollution, store carbon dioxide, soak up water, regulate temperature and support vital functions for other organisms, including humans5. Conversely, higher levels of functional biodiversity increase the odds of an ecosystem coping with unexpected events, including climate extremes. This is known as the insurance effect6.The effect is well documented in field experiments and modelling studies. And there is mounting evidence of it in ecosystem responses to natural events. A global synthesis of various drought conditions showed, for instance, that forests were more resilient when trees with a greater diversity of strategies for using and transporting water lived together7.

Dead trees near Iserlohn, Germany, in April 2020 (left) and after felling in June 2021 (right).Credit: Ina Fassbender/AFP via Getty

However, biodiversity cannot protect all ecosystems against all kinds of impacts. In a study this year across plots in the United States and Canada, for example, mortality was shown to be higher in diverse forest ecosystems8. The proposed explanation for this unexpected result was that greater biodiversity could also foster more competition for resources. When extreme events induce stress, resources can become scarce in areas with high biomass and competition can suddenly drive mortality, overwhelming the benefits of cohabitation. Whether or not higher biodiversity protects an ecosystem from an extreme is highly site-specific.Some plants respond to drought by reducing photosynthesis and transpiration immediately; others can maintain business as usual for much longer, stabilizing the response of the ecosystem as a whole. So the exact response of ecosystems to extremes depends on interactions between the type of event, plant strategies, vegetation composition and structure.Which plant strategies will prevail is hard to predict and highly dependent on the duration and severity of the climatic extreme, and on previous extremes9. Researchers cannot fully explain why some forests, tree species or individual plants survive in certain regions hit by extreme climate conditions, whereas entire stands disappear elsewhere10. One study of beech trees in Germany showed that survival chances had a genomic basis11, yet it is not clear whether the genetic variability present in forests will be sufficient to cope with future conditions.And it can take years for ecosystem impacts to play out. The effects of the two consecutive hot drought years, 2018 and 2019, were an eye-opener for many of us. In Leipzig, tree growth declined, pathogens proliferated and ash and maple trees died. The double blow, interrupted by a mild winter, on top of the long-term loss of soil moisture, led to trees dying at 4–20 times the usual rate throughout Germany, depending on the species (see go.nature.com/3etrrnp; in German). The devastation peaked in 2020.Ecosystem changes can also affect atmospheric conditions and climate. Notably, land-use change can alter the brightness (albedo) of the planet’s surface and its capacity for heat exchange. But there are more-complex mechanisms of influence.Vegetation can be a source or sink for atmospheric substances. A study published in 2020 showed that vegetation under stress is less capable of removing ozone than are unstressed plants, leading to higher levels of air pollution12. Pollen and other biogenic particles emitted from certain plants can induce the freezing of supercooled cloud droplets, allowing ice in clouds to form at much warmer temperatures13, with consequences for rainfall14. Changes to species composition and stress can alter the dynamics of these particle emissions. Plant stress also modifies the emission of biogenic volatile organic gases, which can form secondary particles. Wildfires — enhanced by drought and monocultures — affect clouds, weather and climate through the emission of greenhouse gases and smoke particles. Satellite data show that afforestation can boost the formation of low-level, cooling cloud cover15 by enhancing the supply of water to the atmosphere.Research prioritiesAn important question is whether there is a feedback loop: will more intense, and more frequent, extremes accelerate the degradation and homogenization of ecosystems, which then, in turn, promote further climate extremes? So far, we don’t know.One reason for this lack of knowledge is that research has so far been selective: most studies have focused on the impacts of droughts and heatwaves on ecosystems. Relatively little is known about the impacts of other kinds of extremes, such as a ‘false spring’ caused by an early-season bout of warm weather, a late spring frost, heavy rainfall events, ozone maxima, or exposure to high levels of solar radiation during dry, cloudless weather.Researchers have no overview, much less a global catalogue, of how each dimension of biodiversity interacts with the full breadth of climate extremes in different combinations and at multiple scales. In an ideal world, scientists would know, for example, how the variation in canopy density, vegetation age, and species diversity protects against storm damage; and whether and how the diversity of canopy structures controls atmospheric processes such as cloud formation in the wake of extremes. Researchers need to link spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity with the responses of ecosystem processes to climate extremes.
Biodiversity needs every tool in the box: use OECMs
Creating such a catalogue is a huge challenge, particularly given the more frequent occurrence of extremes with little or no precedent16. Scientists will also need to account for the increasing likelihood of pile-ups of climate stressors. The ways in which ecosystems respond to compound events17 could be quite different. Researchers will have to study which facets of biodiversity (genetic, physiological, structural) are required to stabilize ecosystems and their functions against these onslaughts.There is at least one piece of good news: tools for data collection and analysis are improving fast, with huge advances over the past decade in satellite-based observations for both climate and biodiversity monitoring. The European Copernicus Earth-observation programme, for example — which includes the Sentinel 1 and 2 satellite fleet, and other recently launched missions that cover the most important wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum — offer metre-scale resolution observations of the biochemical status of plants and canopy structure. Atmospheric states are recorded in unprecedented detail, vertically and in time.Scientists must now make these data interoperable and integrate them with in situ observations. The latter is challenging. On the ground, a new generation of data are being collected by researchers and by citizen scientists18. For example, unique insights into plant responses to stress are coming from time-lapse photography of leaf orientation; accelerometer measures of movement patterns of stems have been shown to provide proxies for the drought stress of trees19.High-quality models are needed to turn these data into predictions. The development of functional ‘digital twins’ of the climate system is now in reach. These models replicate hydrometeorological processes at the metre scale, and are fast enough to allow for rapid scenario development and testing20. The analogous models for ecosystems are still in a more conceptual phase. Artificial-intelligence methods will be key here, to study links between climate extremes and biodiversity.Researchers can no longer afford to track global transformations of the Earth system in disciplinary silos. Instead, ecologists and climate scientists need to establish a joint agenda, so that humanity is properly forewarned: of the risks of removing biodiversity buffers against climate extremes, and of the risk of thereby amplifying these extremes. More

Population sampling and sequencingWe generated whole genome sequence data from 302 wild-caught individual An. minimus female mosquitoes collected from five different field sites in Cambodia using the Illumina HiSeq 2000 platform with 150 bp paired-end reads with a target coverage of 30X for each. Mosquito collections in Thmar Da, in Eastern Cambodia, were done in 2010. Longitudinal monthly collections were performed from February 2014 to January 2015 in two sites in each of the Preah Vihear, and Ratanakiri provinces. Quarterly collections were also done in 2016 in one site in Preah Vihear province, Cambodia.Variant discoveryThe methods for sequencing and variant calling closely follow those of the Anopheles gambiae 1000 Genomes project phase 2 (Ag1000G)27. Sequence reads were aligned to the An. minimus reference genome AminM128. We restricted our analysis to the largest 40 contigs, which cover 96.6% of the AminM1 reference genome, as many smaller-sized contigs can confound diversity and divergence calculations. We found that 138,161,075 (75.4%) of sites within these 40 largest contigs pass our site filters and thus were accessible to SNP calling. Of these, we discovered 38,000,285 segregating single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that passed all of our quality control filters of 55,307,039 total segregating SNPs. 13.4% of these SNPs were multiallelic, with 32,906,471 biallelic SNPs. There were 4,807,355 triallelic and 286,459 quadriallelic SNPs. A total of 100,160,790 sites were invariant. The median genome-wide coverage was 35X.Population structureA principal component analysis (PCA) over biallelic SNPs distributed over the genome of 302 individual field-collected mosquitoes showed that there is clear population structure of An. minimus in Cambodia. Samples collected from five sites in three provinces split into three distinct clusters; here, we report on 283 individuals that could be clearly assigned to these clusters (Fig. 1), excluding 9 anomalous and 10 outlying individuals. One cluster includes all samples from the western collection site Thmar Da and the northern collection sites in Preah Vihear province, with two further clusters with samples from Ratanakiri province in the northeast. These clusters split primarily along the first and second principal components. This was a surprising finding because this population structure did not correlate to the geographic sampling of these mosquitoes. Individuals collected from the western and northern sites cluster tightly together despite being hundreds of kilometers apart.Fig. 1: Population structure of An. minimus in Cambodia.The map indicates the five Cambodian collection sites. Principal component analysis (PCA) of whole genome sequences of 283 individual An. minimus s.s. collected in five villages in Cambodia shows that there is a distinct population structure and three populations. When performing the same PCA on a large X-chromosomal contig (KB664054), these individuals break into four populations: TD from the West, PV from the northern province in Preah Vihear, and RK1 and RK2, both collected in two sites in Ratanakiri province in the Northeast.Full size imageTo further explore this population structure, we performed the same PCA over individual contigs from different regions of the genome. Performing PCA over the largest X-chromosomal contig KB664054 resulted in a splitting of the western and northern samples, indicating four distinct populations of An. minimus in Cambodia (Fig. 1). PCA from this contig on a quickly evolving sex chromosome revealed more population structure compared to autosomal contigs. The populations defined by these PCA clusters are designated in this study as TD from Thmar Da, in Western Cambodia (n = 41), on the Thai-Cambodian border, PV from the Northern province Preah Vihear (n = 156), and the two distinct populations collected in Ratanakiri province in the Northeast, each including individuals collected at both collection sites, these are designated as populations RK1 (n = 58) and RK2 (n = 28).To confirm our results from PCA, we also performed an admixture analysis. We ran admixture on each of the largest 10 contigs for values of K between 2 and 6 (Supplemental Fig. 1). At K = 2, the samples from Northeastern Cambodia split from Northern and Western Cambodia samples. At K = 3, the two different groups in Ratanakiri were separated, consistent with the PCA results. At K = 4, there was some evidence for geographical population structure between the Western TD and Northern PV populations, but the admixture results did not perfectly correspond with geographic sampling, with some evidence of mixed ancestry in the PV samples. Again, this is consistent with the PCA groupings, with the generally weaker evidence of geographic population structure between TD and PV. A cross-validation analysis showed the lowest cross-validation error for K = 2 and K = 3, consistent with the strongest evidence for population structure between the two RK groups and other populations. Cross-validation error was higher at K = 4, consistent with the weaker differentiation between TD and PV. At no point was their an indication of admixture between RK1 and RK2.To examine population differentiation, we computed differences in allele frequencies between each population using Pairwise Fst. Pairwise Fst between all 4 populations over the largest contig, KB663610, representing 16% of the An. minimus genome, (Fig. 2) shows that differentiation was relatively low between populations of TD and PV with an average pairwise Fst of 0.003, while the difference between RK2 and the other three populations is tenfold higher, around 0.03. Pairwise Fst estimates comparing these populations over other large An. minimus contigs indicate a similar level of differentiation, with average pairwise Fst values over 0.03 (Supplementary Data 3). The two sympatric populations from the Ratanakiri collection sites are as differentiated from each other as they are from the northern and western clusters.Fig. 2: Population diversity and divergence.Nucleotide diversity (π), Watterson’s Theta (θW), and Tajima’s D statistics were calculated over fourfold degenerate sites on autosomal contigs. The error bars indicate 95% confidence intervals calculated over 100 bootstrap replicates over samples. An average pairwise Fst in the table here was calculated in 20 kb windows over the largest contig KB663610.Full size imageThis level of differentiation of RK2, even from the RK1 population, might indicate an emerging cryptic species within An. minimus A or a newly diverging clade. RK1 and RK2 are sympatric populations, both being collected in the same two sites in Northeastern Cambodia. The differences seen here between RK1 and RK2 populations are consistent with cryptic taxa in other anopheline groups. For example, in the An. gambiae complex, the level of differentiation between recently diverged sibling species An. coluzzii and An. gambiae in West Africa is approximately 0.0319.Population diversity and variationTo characterize population diversity among these populations, nucleotide diversity (π), Watterson’s Theta (θW), and Tajima’s D statistics were calculated over 4-fold degenerate sites on autosomal contigs larger than 2 megabases with 100 bootstrap replicates over samples. These 17 contigs represent 80% of the Anopheles minimus genome (Fig. 2). The populations were downsampled for these calculations to have sizes equal to that of the smallest population RK2 (n = 28).There are small but significant differences in the magnitude of the genetic diversity summary statistics between these four different populations. In particular, there were notable differences between the putatively cryptic taxa RK1 and RK2, two populations that were collected in the same sites in Northeastern Cambodia. RK1 had higher levels of nucleotide diversity and lower levels of Tajima’s D than RK2. These differences are consistent with different population size histories between these sympatric groups. Lower values of Tajima’s D suggest stronger population growth in RK1. Comparing all four populations, higher levels of genetic diversity indicate larger effective population sizes of TD and PV compared to RK1 and RK2.RK2 has a significantly reduced nucleotide diversity and Watterson’s Theta compared to the other three populations. This may indicate a smaller population size and a recent bottleneck of the RK2 population in Cambodia. All four An. minimus populations have a negative Tajima’s D, indicating an excess of rare variants, particularly in RK1. This suggests recent population expansions in all populations.Signals of evolutionary selectionWe used Fst to scan across the Anopheles minimus genome to look for regions of the genome with increased differentiation. When we scanned the genome using pairwise Fst, there were no apparent long signals of differentiation that might indicate a large inversion or other structural variants, known to be major drivers of adaptive evolution in other Anopheles groups. To investigate increased differentiation across large regions of the genome, we performed scans of nucleotide diversity (π), Watterson’s Theta (θW), and Tajima’s D over the largest 14 contigs (representing 80% of the An. minimus genome). As with the Fst scans, there were no large regions of higher differentiation in any of the populations that might indicate major structural variants or inversions (Supplementary Figs. 2–4).Whole-genome sequencing allowed us to identify pointed signals occurring across the entire genome using scans of average pairwise Fst. Isolated points of high differentiation were compared over single contigs with average pairwise Fst calculated over windows of 1000 SNPs each and plotted over whole contigs. The strongest signals, indicated by the highest Fst value at the peak of a strong signal of differentiation, were ranked and compared. The five top signals in each of the six comparisons between the four populations are listed in Table 1. These isolated points of high differentiation are one indication of a signal of evolutionary selection. The most differentiated regions by Fst occurred when comparing the RK2 population to the other three populations, with the highest selection peaks with pairwise Fst over 0.4. RK2 also had more distinct signals of selection when compared to the other populations than RK1. Since these signals of differentiation were highly localized, we could look to known gene annotations and gene predictions across the AminM1 reference genome to see which genes were within 100 kbp of the peaks of these signals. We have noted candidate genes of interest that were near the strongest Fst signal peaks and also had known or predicted gene functions (Table 1, Supplementary Fig. 6, Supplementary Fig. 8).Table 1 The top five Fst signals of high differentiation within each of six population comparisons are reported here.Full size tableThere is almost no indication of selection when comparing the Thmar Da population with Preah Vihear, with all but one signal with Fst values below 0.05. The one strong signal between TD and PV (Fst = 0.125) is near a Carbohydrate sulfotransferase, which is involved in detoxification processes. Comparing TD to RK1 and RK2 reveals multiple strong signals of selection, some which are present in both Northeastern populations, as well as many unique RK2-specific signals (Fig. 3, Supplementary Fig. 5).Fig. 3: Signals of selection over a single autosomal contig.Pairwise Fst was calculated in 1000 SNP windows over autosomal contig KB664266, comparing the Thmar Da population to the three other populations, Ratanakiri 2, Ratanakiri 1, and Preah Vihear. There is almost no indication of selection when comparing Thmar Da with Preah Vihear. There is a strongly supported signal of differentiation in both Ratanakiri 1 and Ratanakiri 2 populations at 7.5 Mbp, which is in the same location as a cluster of GSTe genes, including GSTe2, which are known to be involved in metabolic resistance to DDT and pyrethroids. The signal with the highest Fst peak here in RK2, at 6 Mbp is close to an Ecdysteroid UDP-glucosyltransferase gene, shown to confer pyrethroid insecticide resistance in other anophelines. These are a few of many selection signals identified in this study that may be associated with insecticide pressure on these An. minimus populations.Full size imageMany of the strongest signals identified in this study may be associated with insecticide pressure on these An. minimus populations. The strongest selection signals in every population comparison were close to genes that are involved in detoxification, signal transduction, and adaptations to oxidative stress, or have been functionally validated to have mutations that confer resistance to insecticides (Table 1). Some signals of interest include a strongly supported signal of selection in both RK1 and RK2 populations at 7.5 Mbp on the contig KB664266, which is in the same location as a cluster of glutathione-S-transferases, including GSTe2, which has been shown to be involved in the metabolism of DDT and pyrethroids, mutations in which mediate metabolic insecticide resistance29. The signal with the highest pairwise Fst peak on the same contig KB664266, at 6 Mbp is an RK2-specific signal and close to an Ecdysteroid UDP-glucosyltransferase gene, which has been shown to confer pyrethroid insecticide resistance in An. stephensi30.Another notable signal is between the RK1 and RK2 populations on the contig KB663610, a Peptidase S1 domain-containing protein AMIN002286, which has been shown to be involved in response to parasite pathogens in insects31. The signals of selection observed in this study are mostly distinct from the main selection signals seen in An. gambiae complex mosquitoes19, the primary vectors of Plasmodium falciparum in Africa.Insecticide resistanceWe report here variants at known insecticide resistance-associated alleles for each of the four An. minimus populations. Variants occurring at a frequency of more than 2% in at least one of the four populations are reported in the known insecticide-resistance-associated genes Ace1, Rdl, KDR, and GSTe2 (Supplementary Data 2). GSTe2 mutants are present in multiple populations, at a low rate, and there are a few individuals in Thmar Da and Preah Vihear with the Rdl resistance mutation, which is known to confer resistance to cyclodiene insecticides, despite evidence from other studies that species in this region lack this resistance mutation32. We did not investigate copy number variation, which is one mechanism by which GSTe2 confers insecticide resistance. These SNP variants indicate variation throughout these insecticide-resistance-associated genes, and though most of these populations do not currently have high rates of validated insecticide resistance-associated mutations, this underlying variation provides the potential for structural and transcriptional events resulting in greater levels of insecticide resistance in An. minimus populations. More

Study sites and coloniesAll the experiments were carried out during the apple and pear blooming seasons of 2007, 2008, 2011, 2013 and 2014 in different locations of the province of Rio Negro, Argentina, while some laboratory experiments performed in the city of Buenos Aires. We used individual foragers of Apis mellifera L. and their colonies containing a mated queen, brood, and food reserves in ten-frame Langstroth hives. All beehives used had similar sizes and the same management history from the beekeeper. The honey bees studied belonged to commercial Langstroth-type hives rented to pollinate these plots. Each hive had a fertilized queen, 3 or 4 capped brood frames, reserves and approximately 15,000 individuals56.Testing generalization of memories from pear mimic odours to pear and apple natural floral scentsThe absolute conditioning assays were performed in the laboratories of the School of Exacts and Natural Sciences of the University of Buenos Aires (34° 32′ S, 58° 26′ W), Buenos Aires, Argentina. We used honey bee foragers collected at the entrance of the hives settle in the experimental field of the School of Exacts and Natural Sciences. The apple (‘Granny Smith’ and ‘Red Delicious’ varieties) and pear (‘Packham’ and ‘D’anjou’ varieties) bud samples that we used as conditioned stimuli (CS) during the conditioning were collected at the end of the blossom of 2011 in Ingeniero Huergo (39° 03′ 27.5″ S; 67° 13′ 53.5″ W), province of Río Negro, Argentina, and taken to the laboratory in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, to be used within the following 2 days.We first developed the three different synthetic mixtures (PM, PMI and PMII) that could be generalized to the fragrance of the pear flower by foraging bees. The pear synthetic mixtures were formulated considering the previously reported volatile profile of pear blossoms57. Then, we chose the synthetic mixture most perceptually similar to the pear flower fragrance and measured its generalisation response to the apple flower fragrance to test the compounds’ specificity. The chemical compounds used to prepare the different synthetic mixtures for the behavioural assays were obtained from Sigma-Aldrich, Steinheim, Germany. The compounds used for the three pear mixtures (PM, PMI and PMII) were composed by alpha-pinene, 2-ethyl-hexanol, (R)-(+)-limonene, and (±)-linalool. For details of the PM and mixture proportions see Patent PCT/IB2018/05555058.To test generalization, we took advantages of the fact that honey bees reflexively extend their proboscises when sugar solution is applied to their antennae59. The proboscis extension reflex (PER) can be used to condition bees to an odour if a neutral olfactory stimulus (CS) is paired with a sucrose reward as unconditioned stimulus, US60. Conditioned honey bees extend their proboscises towards the odour alone, a response that indicates that this stimulus has been learned and predicts the oncoming food reward. Conditioned bees can generalize such a learned response to a novel odour if it is perceived like the conditioned one (CS). Then we performed three absolute PER conditionings where we paired each of the three PMs with a sucrose-water solution (30%) reward along three learning trials (exp. 4.2a). Afterwards, pear floral scent was presented as novel odour to test generalization. Based on the generalization level to the pear odour, we chose the synthetic mixture that showed the highest generalisation towards pear flower fragrance, and we used it in all the experiments that follow. In an additional 3-trial PER conditioning with the chosen mixture, we quantified generalisation towards both the pear and apple fragrances as novel stimuli (exp. 4.2b).The experimental bees were all foragers, captured from colonies that had no access to any pear and/or apple tree, hence completely naïve for the CSs. Immediately after capture, bees were anaesthetized at 4 °C and harnessed in metal tubes so that they could only move their mouthparts and antennae60. They were fed 30% weight/weight unscented sucrose solution for about three seconds and kept in a dark incubator (30 °C, 55% relative humidity) for about two hours. Only those bees that showed the unconditioned response (the reflexive extension of the proboscis after applying a 30% w/w sucrose solution to the antennae) and did not respond to the mechanical air flow stimulus were used. Trials lasted 46 s and presented three steps: 20 s of clean air, 6 s of odour presentation (CS) and the last 20 s of clean air. During rewarded trials (CS), the reward (US, a drop of 30% w/w sucrose solution) was delivered upon the last 3 s of CS presentation. The synthetic mixtures (PM) were delivered in a constant air flow (15 ml/s) that passed through a 1 ml syringe containing 4 µl of the synthetic mixture on a small strip of filter paper. On the other hand, pear and apple floral volatiles were swept from a 100 g of fresh pear buds (var. ‘D’Anjou’ and ‘Packham’) or apple buds (var. ‘Granny Smith’, ‘Gala’ and ‘Red Delicious’) inside a kitasato by means of an air flow (54 ml/s).Testing discrimination between mimics and natural floral scentsThe differential conditioning assays were performed in a field laboratory in Ingeniero Huergo, province of Río Negro, Argentina. Conditioning trials with AM as CS were carried out in September 2007 and 2008, prior to the beginning of flowering of the fruit trees. Conditioning trials with PM as CS were carried out in September 2011 in the same area (Ingeniero Huergo, province of Río Negro, Argentina). Apple and pear bud samples used as CS were collected in plots that start blooming located around Ingeniero Huergo, but distant (more than 1 km) from the plot where we collected the bees. The bud samples presented the following varieties: M. domesticus sp., ‘Granny Smith’, ‘Gala’, and ‘Red Delicious’; P. communis sp., ‘Packham’ and ‘D’Anjou’.With the aim to develop a synthetic mixture that presents difficult to discriminate with the fragrance of the apple flower by foraging bees, an apple synthetic mixture (AM) was formulated considering the previously reported volatile profile of apple blossoms61. The chemical compounds used to prepare the apple synthetic mixtures for the behavioural assays were obtained from Sigma-Aldrich, Steinheim, Germany. Apple mimic (AM) was composed by benzaldehyde, limonene and citral. For details of the AM proportions see Patent AR2011010244162. Jasmine mimic (JM) was a commercial extract obtained from Firmenich S.A.I.C. y F, Argentina.If the synthetic mixture chosen were perceptually similar to the apple flower fragrance, experimental bees should have difficult to discriminate to the apple flower fragrance to test the compounds’ specificity. Thus, we performed differential PER conditioning between synthetic mixtures (AM and Jasmine mimic, JM) or between synthetic mixtures (AM or JM) and the apple natural fragrance. We followed a differential PER conditioning34 to assess to what extent the bees were able to discriminate the synthetic mimics from their natural flower scents. PER differential conditioning consisted of four pairs of trials, four rewarded trials (CS+) and four non-rewarded trials (CS−) that were presented in a pseudo-randomized manner. Conditionings were performed using the synthetic mixtures PM and AM and the natural floral scents, pear and apple, either as CS+ and CS−. We followed the same procedure that in 3.3 to capture the bees and to present the stimuli during trials.Feeding protocolWe used the offering of scented sucrose solution in the hive as a standardized procedure to establish long-term olfactory memory in honey bees23,24,24,26,63. Scented sucrose solution was obtained by diluting 50 µl of PM or AM per litre of sucrose solution (50% weight/weight, henceforth: w/w). For the ‘apple’ series, colonies were fed 1500 ml of sugar solution offered in an internal plastic feeder for 2 days, about 3 days before the apple trees began to bloom. For the ‘pear’ series, hives were fed 500 ml of sugar solution that we spread over the top of the central frames. Both feeding procedures have been found to be functional for establishing olfactory in-hive memories26. Depending on the pear varieties, the scented sucrose solution was offered when the pear trees were 10–40% in bloom.Colony activityThe effects of the AM-treatment on colony nest entrance activity were studied in 18 colonies located in an agricultural setting of apple and pear trees in Ingeniero Huergo, on an 8-ha plot, half of which was planted with apple trees (varieties: ‘Granny Smith’, ‘Gala’ and ‘Red Delicious’) and the other 4 ha with pear trees (varieties: ‘Packham’ and ‘D’anjou’). The effect of the PM-treatment on colony activity was studied in 14 colonies located in three adjoining pear plots (total surface: 8 ha) in Otto Krause (39° 06′ 22″ S 66° 59′ 46″ O, Supplementary Fig. S5), province of Río Negro, Argentina. The varieties of these plots corresponded to ‘Packham’ and ‘Williams’. Pollen collection (exp. 4.5.2) was also studied in colonies located in these plots.We focused on the nest entrance activity since once the first successful foragers return to the hive and display dances and/or unload the food collected, it promotes the activation or reactivation of inactive foragers and, in a minor proportion, those hive mates ready to initiate foraging tasks39,65,66,67,67. Then, we choose number of incoming bees as an indicator of colony foraging activity, since most of these bees are expected to return from foraging sites33. Thus, we compared the activity level at the nest entrance between 7 SS + PM-treated colonies and 7 SS-treated colonies. We also compared the nest entrance activity level between 5 colonies treated with SS + AM and 5 colonies fed with SS. This activity value was estimated by the number of incoming foragers at the entrance of the hive for one minute, every morning at the same time (10:30 a.m.) during the entire experiment (9 consecutive days). A first measurement was done one day before feeding the colonies (used as covariate) and 7 measurements afterwards.We measured the amount of pollen loads collected by two colonies: one fed with SS + PM and one fed with SS. Pollen loads were collected using conventional pollen traps (frontal-entrance trap), consisting of a wooden structure with a removable metal mesh inside. Pollen samples were collected for 3 days, two hours per day during the late morning, 3, 7 and 8 days after the offering of SS + PM or SS. Pollen pellets identified based on pollen colour as coming from the pear flower or from other species were separated and counted. In addition, we estimated the weight of pear pollen loads during a 5 days period, from 6 to 10 days after the offering of scented or unscented sucrose solution. To reduce measurement error, pollen loads were weighed in groups of 10.Crop yieldPear crop yield was studied in pear plots in General Roca (39° 02′ 00″ S; 67° 35′ 00″ O, Supplementary Fig. S4, Supplementary Table S3), province of Río Negro, Argentina. In an area of 15.2 ha (4 plots of 3.8 ha each), 45 beehives were equidistantly located in groups. We measured the number of fruits per tree set of 30 trees in the surrounding areas of the PM-treated colonies (2 groups of 8 hives) and control colonies (2 groups of 8 hives). A third group category contained 13 untreated colonies. The varieties of the pear trees were ‘D’Anjou’ and ‘Packham’.Apple crop yield estimated by means of number of fruits per plant was studied in General Roca (Supplementary Fig. S2, Supplementary Table S1), province of Río Negro, Argentina. We measured fruit set in the two plots that covered a surface of 3.8 ha and contained a total of 74 colonies distributed in groups (the control plot, 39 SS-treated-colonies treated with SS; and the treated plot, 35 SS + AM-treated-colonies treated with SS + AM). The varieties of the apple trees were ‘Red Delicious’ (clone 1), ‘Royal Gala’ and ‘Granny Smith’.A second studied on apple fruit yield by means of kg of fruits per hectare was performed in Coronel Belisle (39° 11′ 00″ S 65° 59′ 00″ O, Supplementary Fig. S3, Supplementary Table S2), province of Río Negro, Argentina. Four apple plots with ‘Granny Smith’, ‘Hi Early’ and ‘Red Delicious’, clone 1 varieties of 15.4 ha each were randomly assigned to different treatments (treated plot 1, 40 SS + AM-treated-hives treated with SS + AM; treated plot 2, 40 SS + AM-treated-hives treated with SS + AM; control plot 1, 40 SS-treated-hives treated with SS; control plot 2, 40 SS-treated-hives treated with SS).During the fruit harvest, the fruit yield was estimated in the surroundings (150 m around) of two groups of 8 colonies each. We fed one group SS + PM and the other unscented sucrose solution (SS). Yield was estimated as the number of fruits per trees in 30 randomly selected trees within each area, alternating the counts between the North and South faces of the plots. Following the same procedure, we also estimated the number of fruits per trees in the surroundings of two groups of 14 colonies each that pollinated apple crops. Again, we fed one group SS + AM and the other SS. Additionally, a total of 218 colonies in General Roca and 180 colonies in Coronel Belisle have been separated in the two experimental groups, in which yield had been provided by the producer and expressed in kg of fruits per ha. It is worth remarking that in some plots the distance between treated and control beehive groups was around 300 m, suggesting that might have been overlapping flying areas between treated and control hives. Additionally, the apple fields studied in the surrounding of Coronel Belisle, presented many trees without flowers. It was considered that the absence of flowers in numerous trees would bias the counts performed in those fields. Then, to quantify this situation, which might be associated with the masting phenomenon68, samples with the proportions of trees without flowers for every 20 trees in each plot was done. Trees that had between 80 and 100% of their surface devoid of flowers were considered “without flowers” trees, and “trees with available flowers” those that had more than 20% of their surface covered with flowers. An average of 30% of the trees within these plots were devoid of flowers. Thus, a correction factor was considered to evaluate the yield data provided by the grower per plot analysed (Supplementary Table S4).StatisticsAll statistical analyses were performed with R Core Team 201969. For Experiment 4.2 and 4.3, we analysed PER proportion by means of a binomial multiplicative generalized linear mixed model using the “glmer” function of the ‘lme4’ package70.For experiment 4.2a we considered the pear mimics (three-level factor corresponding to PM, PMI and PMII) and the event (two-level factor corresponding to 3rd trial and test) as fixed factors and each “bee” as a random factor.For experiment 4.2b we considered the tested odours (three-level factor corresponding to Apple, Pear and PM) as fixed factors.For experiment 4.3 we considered the tested odours (two-level factor corresponding to CS+ and CS−) as fixed factors. Post hoc contrasts were conducted on models to assess effects and significance between fixed factors using the “emmeans” function of the ‘emmeans’ package version 1.7.071 with a significance level of 0.05.For experiment 4.5.1 we analysed “rate of incoming bees” using a generalized linear mixed model. As Poisson model for incoming bees was overdispersed72, we used a negative binomial distribution using the ‘glmmTMB’ package (function ‘glmmTMB’73. We considered “treatment” [two-level factor corresponding to SS + AM (or SS + PM) and SS], “days” (7-level factor corresponding to the date after treatment), the rate of incoming bees before the offering of food (to control for pre-existing colony differences) as covariate (a quantitative fixed effects variable), and “colony” as a random factor.For experiment 4.6, we analysed fruits per trees by means of a negative binomial multiplicative generalized linear mixed model using the “log” function of the ‘ml’ package70. Post hoc contrasts were conducted on models to assess effects and significance between fixed factors using the “emmeans” function of the ‘emmeans’ package version 1.8.071 with a significance level of 0.05. For experiment 4.6b we analysed “yield” (as weight of fruits per unit area) using a general linear mixed model. We checked homoscedasticity and normality assumptions (Levene and Shapiro–Wilk tests, respectively). We considered “treatment” (two-level factor corresponding to SS + AM and SS) and “apple varieties” (3-level factor corresponding to Hi Early, Granny Smith and Chañar 28) as fixed factors and “location” (2-level factor corresponding to General Roca and Coronel Belisle) as random factors. More

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Extent and location of critical natural assetsCritical natural assets providing the 12 local NCP (Fig. 1a) occupy only 30% (41 million km2) of total land area (excluding Antarctica) and 24% (34 million km2) of marine Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), reflecting the steep slope of the aggregate NCP accumulation curve (Fig. 1b). Despite this modest proportion of global land area, the shares of countries’ land areas that are designated as critical can vary substantially. The 20 largest countries require only 24% of their land area, on average, to maintain 90% of current levels of NCP, while smaller countries (10,000 to 1.5 million km2) require on average 40% of their land area (Supplementary Data 1). This high variability in the NCP–area relationship is primarily driven by the proportion of countries’ land areas made up by natural assets (that is, excluding barren, ice and snow, and developed lands), but even when this is accounted for, there are outliers (Extended Data Fig. 2). Outliers may be due to spatial patterns in human population density (for example, countries with dense population centres and vast expanses with few people, such as Canada and Russia, require far less area to achieve NCP targets) or large ecosystem heterogeneity (if greater ecosystem diversity yields higher levels of diverse NCP in a smaller proportion of area, which may explain patterns in Chile and Australia).The highest-value critical natural assets (the locations delivering the highest magnitudes of NCP in the smallest area, denoted by the darkest blue or green shades in Fig. 1c) often coincide with diverse, relatively intact natural areas near or upstream from large numbers of people. Many of these high-value areas coincide with areas of greatest spatial congruence among multiple NCP (Extended Data Fig. 3). Spatially correlated pairs of local NCP (Supplementary Table 4) include those related to water (flood risk reduction with nitrogen retention and nitrogen with sediment retention); forest products (timber and fuelwood); and those occurring closer to human-modified habitats (pollination with nature access and with nitrogen retention). Coastal risk reduction, forage production for grazing, and riverine fish harvest are the most spatially distinct from other local NCP. In the marine realm, there is substantial overlap of fisheries with coastal risk reduction and reef tourism (though not between the latter two, which each have much smaller critical areas than exist for fisheries).Number of people benefitting from critical natural assetsWe estimate that ~87% of the world’s current population, 6.4 billion people, benefit directly from at least one of the 12 local NCP provided by critical natural assets, while only 16% live on the lands providing these benefits (and they may also benefit; Fig. 2a). To quantify the number of beneficiaries of critical natural assets, we spatially delineate their benefitting areas (which varies on the basis of NCP: for example, areas downstream, within the floodplain, in low-lying areas near the coast, or accessible by a short travel). While our optimization selects for the provision of 90% of the current value of each NCP, it is not guaranteed that 90% of the world’s population would benefit (since it does not include considerations for redundancy in adjacent pixels and therefore many of the areas selected benefit the same populations), so it is notable that an estimated 87% do. This estimate of ‘local’ beneficiaries probably underestimates the total number of people benefitting because it includes only NCP for which beneficiaries can be spatially delineated to avoid double-counting, yet it is striking that the vast majority, 6.1 billion people, live within 1 h travel (by road, rail, boat or foot, taking the fastest path17) of critical natural assets, and more than half of the world’s population lives downstream of these areas (Fig. 2b). Material NCP are often delivered locally, but many also enter global supply chains, making it difficult to delineate beneficiaries spatially for these NCP. However, past studies have calculated that globally more than 54 million people benefit directly from the timber industry18, 157 million from riverine fisheries19, 565 million from marine fisheries20 and 1.3 billion from livestock grazing21, and across the tropics alone 2.7 billion are estimated to be dependent on nature for one or more basic needs22.Fig. 2: People benefitting from and living on critical natural assets (CNA).a,b, ‘Local’ beneficiaries were calculated through the intersection of areas benefitting from different NCP, to avoid double-counting people in areas of overlap; only those NCP for which beneficiaries could be spatially delineated were included (that is, not material NCP that enter global supply chains: fisheries, timber, livestock or crop pollination). Bars show percentages of total population globally and for large and small countries (a) or the percentage of relevant population globally (b). Numbers inset in bars show millions of people making up that percentage. Numbers to the right of bars in b show total relevant population (in millions of people, equivalent to total global population from Landscan 2017 for population within 1 h travel or downstream, but limited to the total population living within 10 km of floodplains or along coastlines 80%) of their populations benefitting from critical natural assets, but small countries have much larger proportions of their populations living within the footprint of critical natural assets than do large countries (Fig. 2a and Supplementary Data 2). When people live in these areas, and especially when current levels of use of natural assets are not sustainable, regulations or incentives may be needed to maintain the benefits these assets provide. While protected areas are an important conservation strategy, they represent only 15% of the critical natural assets for local NCP (Supplementary Table 5); additional areas should not necessarily be protected using designations that restrict human access and use, or they could cease to provide some of the diverse values that make them so critical23. Other area-based conservation measures, such as those based on Indigenous and local communities’ governance systems, Payments for Ecosystem Services programmes, and sustainable use of land- and seascapes, can all contribute to maintaining critical flows of NCP in natural and semi-natural ecosystems24.Overlaps between local and global prioritiesUnlike the 12 local NCP prioritized here at the national scale, certain benefits of natural assets accrue continentally or even globally. We therefore optimize two additional NCP at a global scale: vulnerable terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (that is, the amount of total ecosystem carbon lost in a typical disturbance event25, hereafter ‘ecosystem carbon’) and vegetation-regulated atmospheric moisture recycling (the supply of atmospheric moisture and precipitation sustained by plant life26, hereafter ‘moisture recycling’). Over 80% of the natural asset locations identified as critical for the 12 local NCP are also critical for the two global NCP (Fig. 3). The spatial overlap between critical natural assets for local and global NCP accounts for 24% of land area, with an additional 14% of land area critical for global NCP that is not considered critical for local NCP (Extended Data Fig. 4). Together, critical natural assets for securing both local and global NCP require 44% of total global land area. When each NCP is optimized individually (carbon and moisture NCP at the global scale; the other 12 at the country scale), the overlap between carbon or moisture NCP and the other NCP exceeds 50% for all terrestrial (and freshwater) NCP except coastal risk reduction (which overlaps only 36% with ecosystem carbon, 5% with moisture recycling; Supplementary Table 4).Fig. 3: Spatial overlaps between critical natural assets for local and global NCP.Red and teal denote where critical natural assets for global NCP (providing 90% of ecosystem carbon and moisture recycling globally) or for local NCP (providing 90% of the 12 NCP listed in Fig. 1), respectively, but not both, occur; gold shows areas where the two overlap (24% of the total area). Together, local and global critical natural assets account for 44% of total global land area (excluding Antarctica). Grey areas show natural assets not defined as ‘critical’ by this analysis, though still providing some values to certain populations. White areas were excluded from the optimization.Full size imageSynergies can also be found between NCP and biodiversity and cultural diversity. Critical natural assets for local NCP at national levels overlap with part or all of the area of habitat (AOH, mapped on the basis of species range maps, habitat preferences and elevation27) for 60% of 28,177 terrestrial vertebrates (Supplementary Data 3). Birds (73%) and mammals (66%) are better represented than reptiles and amphibians (44%). However, these critical natural assets represent only 34% of the area for endemic vertebrate species (with 100% of their AOH located within a given country; Supplementary Data 3) and 16% of the area for all vertebrates if using a more conservative representation target framework based on the IUCN Red List criteria (though, notably, achieving Red List representation targets is impossible for 24% of species without restoration or other expansion of existing AOH; Supplementary Data 4). Cultural diversity (proxied by linguistic diversity) has far higher overlaps with critical natural assets than does biodiversity; these areas intersect 96% of global Indigenous and non-migrant languages28 (Supplementary Data 5). The degree to which languages are represented in association with critical natural assets is consistent across most countries, even at the high end of language diversity (countries containing >100 Indigenous and non-migrant languages, such as Indonesia, Nigeria and India). This high correspondence provides further support for the importance of safeguarding rights to access critical natural assets, especially for Indigenous cultures that benefit from and help maintain them. Despite the larger land area required for maintaining the global NCP compared with local NCP, global NCP priority areas overlap with slightly fewer languages (92%) and with only 2% more species (60% of species AOH), although a substantially greater overlap is seen with global NCP if Red List criteria are considered (36% compared with 16% for local NCP; Supplementary Data 4). These results provide different insights than previous efforts at smaller scales, particularly a similar exercise in Europe that found less overlap with priority areas for biodiversity and NCP29. However, the 40% of all vertebrate species whose habitats did not overlap with critical natural assets could drive very different patterns if biodiversity were included in the optimization.Although these 14 NCP are not comprehensive of the myriad ways that nature benefits and is valued by people23, they capture, spatially and thematically, many elements explicitly mentioned in the First Draft of the CBD’s post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework13: food security, water security, protection from hazards and extreme events, livelihoods and access to green and blue spaces. Our emphasis here is to highlight the contributions of natural and semi-natural ecosystems to human wellbeing, specifically contributions that are often overlooked in mainstream conservation and development policies around the world. For example, considerations for global food security often include only crop production rather than nature’s contributions to it via pollination or vegetation-mediated precipitation, or livestock production without partitioning out the contribution of grasslands from more intensified feed production.Gaps and next stepsOur synthesis of these 14 NCP represents a substantial advance beyond other global prioritizations that include NCP limited to ecosystem carbon stocks, fresh water and marine fisheries30,31,32, though still falls short of including all important contributions of nature such as its relational values33. Despite the omission of many NCP that were not able to be mapped, further analyses indicate that results are fairly robust to inclusion of additional NCP. Dropping one of the 12 local NCP at a time results in More

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