Philippa Kaur

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ProductivityWith regard to productivity, in the summer harvest of the 2016–2017 crop year, in which all grain production systems had soybean in common, there were significant differences among crop rotations with species diversification and the double-cropped corn–soybean rotation; performance was better in AS-II, AS-III, AS-IV, AS-V and AS-VI and worst in AS-I. There was no significant difference in productivity among the crop rotations with species diversification (Table 2).Table 2 Productivity (kg ha−1) of the crop rotation systems for the 2014–2015 to 2019–2020 crop years in Londrina, state of Paraná, Brazil.Full size tableFor the summer harvest of the 2019–2020 crop year, in which all the grain production systems again had soybean in common, significant differences were also observed among the production systems. AS-I and AS-V had the lowest productivities, differing from AS-IV and AS-VI, which had the highest productivities. Conversely, the productivities of AS-II and AS-III did not differ significantly from those of the other evaluated systems (Table 2).In the cycle that ended in crop year 2019–2020, compared to the cycle that ended in crop year 2016–2017, there was a reduction in soybean productivity in all the analyzed grain production systems (Table 2). There was also a decrease in the productivity of corn grown in the summer in the 2015–2016 and 2018–2020 crop years. This decrease in productivity observed between the production cycles may be associated with climatic conditions because from 2014–2015 to 2016–2017, there was a good rainfall distribution and few water deficit peaks, while from 2017–2018 to 2019–2020, the water deficit peaks were more constant, especially in 2018–2019 and 2019–2020 (Fig. 1). Notably, there was a greater influence of the El Niño phenomenon on the first production cycle (2014–2017) and of the La Niña phenomenon on the second (2017–2020)28. In southern Brazil, these phenomena correspond to periods of weaker droughts under El Niño conditions and a higher frequency of severe and moderate droughts under La Niña conditions29. The occurrence of a water deficit may limit plant growth and development, particularly during the flowering and grain filling stages. Systems that employ crop rotation with species diversification are less susceptible to production losses due to water deficits30. The results of this study show that crop rotation systems with species diversification, by providing a longer soil cover time for soil protection, either with live plants or from the input of surface straw, together with the respective increase in the soil water storage capacity, can mitigate productivity losses resulting from periods of drought (Fig. 1, Table 2).Another finding is that soybean has higher productivity when grown in systems with greater species diversification, as was the case for AS-IV and AS-VI (Table 2). In general, grain production systems that employ crop rotation with species diversification produce more than those that are not diversified31,32, especially in atypical growing seasons affected by climatic factors limiting crop development33.AS-I and AS-V showed the lowest soybean productivity at the end of the second crop rotation cycle, in the 2019–2020 crop year (Table 2). AS-I had the lowest soybean productivity at the end of the two crop cycles, i.e., in 2016–2017 and 2019–2020, a result that is directly related to corn–soybean double cropping. In the southern region of Brazil, for example, soybean productivity in crop rotation systems with species diversification is 6.2% higher than that in double-crop systems22. In this sense, the results of this study indicate that production systems with little species diversification have lower soybean productivity than those that employ crop rotation with species diversification.At the end of the second crop rotation cycle, in 2019–2020, AS-II and AS-III also showed good soybean productivity, i.e., 3864 kg ha−1 and 3848 kg ha−1, respectively. AS-III had one of the highest grain yields in the summer crops, which may be associated with the use of cover crops in the previous winter. The use of cover crops in the winter growing seasons results in a number of benefits from permanent soil cover because cover crops can improve chemical, physical and biological soil attributes, favoring the accumulation of biomass and organic carbon in the soil34 and prevent soil erosion35. In addition, cover crops control pests, diseases and weeds36 and contribute to weed37 and nematode38 control.Regarding crop dry matter, AS-III, AS-IV, AS-V and AS-VI (Table 3) deposited the most dry matter in the system; the crop dry matter in these systems was greater than that in AS-I and showed no significant difference in relation to that in AS-II. The lower production of dry matter in AS-I is explained by the lack of corn cultivation in the summer. Corn grown in the summer was the crop that most contributed to the accumulation of dry matter in AS-III, AS-IV and AS-VI, compensating for the low averages obtained with beans in AS-V and AS-VI and with safflower in AS-IV. The higher dry matter inputs in AS-IV and AS-VI are because these are the only systems in which corn was grown in the summer for two consecutive years. The average dry matter contributed by corn grown in the summer is 9.9 Mg ha−1, while that from off-season corn and soybeans is 6.5 Mg ha−1 and 4.35 Mg ha−1, respectively.Table 3 Dry matter (Mg ha−1) of the grain production systems for the 2014–2015 to 2019–2020 crop years in Londrina, state of Paraná, Brazil.Full size tableStudies carried out in the Cerrado, Mato Grosso, showed that the minimum amount of plant dry matter deposited by crop rotation systems needed to obtain a balance of C in the soil in the region is between 11.7 and 13.3 Mg ha−139. Therefore, we can deduce that AS-III, AS-IV, AS-V and AS-VI would enter equilibrium; that is, over time, there will be neither accumulation of nor loss of C from the soil. For AS-I and AS-II, we can conclude that over time, C stocks in the soil will be reduced, causing a loss of soil fertility and, consequently, productivity, as shown in Table 2, where the yield of AS-I was lower than that of the most diversified treatments.The results show that crop diversification in grain production systems with the cultivation of commercial or cover crops in the winter benefited soybean and corn production in the summer. In similar studies, species diversification is reported to have increased summer crop productivity over time; specifically, in the U.S. and Canada, corn productivity increased by an average of 28.1%40, and in Canada, corn yield increased by 9.9% and soybean productivity increased by 11.8%41.Economic analysisThe highest mean annual revenue was found for AS-VI, while the lowest was found for AS-III. Regarding the mean annual cost, AS-VI demanded the greatest investment, while AS-III showed the lowest production cost. The highest mean annual profit was also observed for AS-VI, highlighting that the revenue more than offset the costs. As expected, the lowest mean annual profit was found for AS-I, that is, the corn–soybean double-crop system (Fig. 2).Figure 2(a) Mean annual revenue, (b) mean annual cost and (c) mean annual profit of grain production systems with varied levels of species diversity in Londrina, state of Paraná, Brazil.Full size imageThe higher profitability observed for AS-VI indicates that the practice of crop rotation with species diversification in grain production systems increased the grain productivity and economic gains. In this system, the productivity of the commercial crops was positively impacted, and the crops showed excellent yields compared to those in the production systems with lower species diversification. In addition, the winter crops played a key role in the composition of the revenues, especially wheat and bean. As previously noted, the highest mean annual costs of inputs (US$ 685), agricultural operations (US$ 353) and other costs (US$ 177) were found for this system. Within the inputs, the highest cost was for fertilizers (K2O, P2O5, and N), accounting for approximately 22% of the total cost (US$ 280). The higher cost may be related to higher energy demands because in a grain production system, a greater energy volume represents a greater use of inputs42. However, although the cost was the highest, the system was found to be more capable of converting investments into higher productivity and, consequently, into higher revenue and profit. Other studies conducted in Brazil also found economic benefits in crop rotation systems with species diversification, for example, in areas with a predominance of Caiuá sandstone, a region with low-fertility soils, in which the highest profitability was obtained in diversified systems that adopted the highest number of commercial crops, both in the winter and summer growing seasons21. Similarly, in another study in southern Brazil, higher productivities were obtained for more diversified crop rotation systems23. In a long-term study involving soybean, corn, wheat and tropical forage grasses in southern Brazil, higher profits were also found for more diversified production systems22.AS-II had the second highest mean annual profit; this system is characterized by the cultivation of cereals in the winter. The results show that this grain production system is promising, as the use of winter cereal crops had a positive effect on the productivity of the summer crops, leading to increased revenue and profit from the sale of soybean and corn (Supplementary Table S2). With regard to costs, the items that generated the highest expenses in AS-II were inputs, accounting for an average of 54% of the total cost, followed by agricultural operations, which represented an average of 31% of the total, and other costs, accounting for an average of 15% of the total cost (Supplementary Table S2). Studies conducted in other locations also recommend crop rotation systems with the use of cereals, as in the semiarid Northern Great Plains, Canada, where higher productivity and greater profit were found with these cultivation systems compared to a system without species diversification43.AS-V had the third highest mean annual profit. This system is composed of six different crops, and its profitability results were also relevant. Regarding the revenues obtained in the winter growing seasons, beans stood out, accounting for 21% of the total (Supplementary Table S2). One of the problems with AS-V was the cultivation of buckwheat, which, in addition to having a low market price and generating little revenue, also had a high production cost, negatively impacting the entire production system. Thus, if buckwheat had not been cultivated, AS-V could have achieved higher profitability than that observed. With regard to the costs for AS-V, the cost of inputs represented an average of 53% of the total cost, followed by agricultural operations (on average, 31% of the total cost) and other costs (on average, 15% of the total). The cultivation of legumes such as beans in the winter is beneficial for grain production systems because it can favor increased production and, consequently, the profit obtained with subsequent crops44.AS-III had the fourth highest mean annual profit. Although this system did not have the best profitability, it should not be disregarded. This system is focused on the production of straw in the winter and on the revenue generated by the summer crops. However, although cover crops do not generate income for the producer, they indirectly promote gains in subsequent crops. With the maintenance of soil cover, productivity gains and increased revenue are expected in production systems in the medium and long terms21. Cover crops, in general, control pests, diseases and weeds and improve soil conditions36 because they prevent soil compaction and improve soil water infiltration and retention, density, and hydraulic conductivity45. AS-III also had the lowest mean annual production cost; the cost with inputs was on average 35% lower than that observed in the other systems. The lower costs are because the cover crops were not harvested because their benefits are obtained from the biomass generated; thus, the cost is lower than that for systems for which the purpose is to sell grains. One of the great benefits of adopting this system is that the cultivation of cover crops in the winter can reduce the cost of the crop that follows because the amount of inputs involved in the production of the next crop can decrease, as can fuel expenses46. In addition, the lower demand for pesticides makes the system more economical and sustainable and less risky. The quantification and analysis of the items composing the costs of each system are extremely important for producers’ decision-making. However, this analysis requires extreme caution because higher production costs do not necessarily mean lower yields, and similarly, lower costs do not necessarily mean higher profits20,21.AS-IV had the second lowest mean annual profit. This system included winter agroenergy crops. With the exception of canola, the other agroenergy crops grown in this production system showed low profitability. Despite having one of the lowest production costs, the low revenue obtained with agroenergy crops compromised the profitability of AS-IV. Even with the sale of crambe, safflower and canola, the revenues were not sufficient to cover the production costs. Although this system did not show one of the best results, studies with bioenergy crops are being conducted in various regions of the world, and these crops may become an option for southern Brazil, as in the case of Italy, where plants of the family Brassicaceae are being introduced in rotation with cereals as a source of income diversification47.The lowest mean annual profit was observed for AS-I. The low profit is related to the high production costs. Despite having the second highest mean annual revenue, the high production cost compromised the profitability of the system. This result is associated with the lower grain productivity observed in this production system and the fact that it specialized in few crops and focused only on commodities, which are subject to changes in their sale price due to seasonality and market uncertainties, or with the increased susceptibility of this system to problems caused by climatic variations. The crops grown in this system are traded in the international market, and in this case, the producers are only “price takers,”, i.e., they are not able to influence the price of the products48. The prices of commodities may vary; thus, producers may obtain higher or lower revenue due to market fluctuations or volatility. In turn, market fluctuations or volatility are caused by, among other factors, production or external factors, such as exchange rate variations or increased food consumption49,50. AS-I had the highest mean annual pesticide costs, approximately 21% of the total cost (US$ 254). In addition to economic factors, the double-crop system has also generated problems such as the proliferation of pests, diseases and weeds because, in contrast to crop rotation, it does not interrupt the life cycles of pests and diseases51. To control the proliferation of pests, diseases and weeds, the increased use of inputs and an increase in the number of agricultural operations are required52, with a consequent increase in production costs20. This increase in production costs can be observed for winter corn crops, which were more expensive than summer soybean crops. In this system, the mean cost to produce soybean in the summer was US$ 567 per ha, and that to produce corn in the winter was US$ 648. Compared to the other systems studied, the average investment required for the winter growing season was US$ 448 and that for the growing season was US$ 640; that is, the winter crops required 30% less investment than the summer crops (Supplementary Table S3).When considering the real selling price of grains, the highest accumulated profit was observed in AS-VI (Fig. 3); however, in a scenario in which the price of soybeans fluctuates (Fig. 3a) both upward and downward, sensitivity analysis revealed different behaviors. If there was a 44% increase in the selling price of soybeans, the ranking order of the systems would change, making AS-I more profitable. AS-I is the most sensitive to soybean price variations, since in this system, the crop is mainly responsible for generating income and is cultivated in all summers. Thus, the opposite results are also expected. A negative variation in the selling price of soybeans will make AS-I the system with the highest accumulated loss. Price changes can significantly increase or decrease the profitability of producers. Thus, the choice of crops and the number of times a crop appears in each agricultural system determines the profitability of the system as the sale price of the crops varies.Figure 3Price sensitivity analysis (accumulated profit of 6 crop years on the y-axis) of six agricultural systems in Londrina, state of Paraná, Brazil. (a) Soybean; (b) corn; (c) wheat; and (d) bean.Full size imageCorn showed some changes in the order of classification of the systems (Fig. 3b). If the corn sale prices were increased by up to 50%, AS-VI would continue to be the system with the highest accumulated profit. In this scenario, AS-I, composed solely of the corn crop in winter, would cease to be the system with the lowest accumulated profit, occupying the position of AS-III. Different from what happened with the soybean crop, the fluctuations in the corn sale price had less impact on AS-I in terms of accumulated profit. This was because the corn produced in this system accounted for a smaller share of profits and, in some cases, even resulted in losses.Regarding the wheat crop (Fig. 3c), changes in the sale price led to little change in the accumulated profit. Wheat was grown only in AS-II and AS-VI, and in a scenario that considered only the variation in the price of this grain, if its selling price was reduced by up to 47%, AS-VI would continue to be the system with the highest accumulated profit. Changes in the selling price of the bean crop (Fig. 3d) had greater impacts. A 50% increase in the sale price of beans led to a 47% increase in profit in AS-VI.In addition to variations in sale prices, another possible scenario is that crops are stored and sold at later dates. This is possible, as cooperatives are able to provide producers with storage and future sale of grains, extending the time for decision-making. Thus, producers can market products at an optimal time, e.g., when sale prices are better than those on the day of harvest. In this scenario, if corn and soybeans were stored and sold at peak prices recorded each quarter, over the 12 months following the harvest date, the evaluated agricultural systems would show even greater profits. Figure 4 shows the evolution of real prices in tons (USD) of corn and soybeans from July 2014 to March 2021.Figure 4Evolution of corn and soybean prices from July 2014 to March 2020. Data were obtained from the Department of Rural Economy of the Paraná State Secretariat of Agriculture and Supply (DERAL-SEAB). The monetary values are corrected for inflation according to the Brazilian Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) to December 2021.Full size imageIf the sale of soybean and corn was carried out at times of price peaks, the accumulated profit of the systems would vary (Table 4). AS-I, composed exclusively of corn and soybean crops, would become the highest profit system (US$ 3,683). AS-VI, although no longer the highest profit system, would still be one of the systems with the best economic results (US$ 3479). In this scenario, AS-IV would occupy the last position, with the lowest accumulated profit (US$ 2732).Table 4 Profit (USD ha−1) of the grain production systems for the 2014–2015 to 2019–2020 crop years, considering quarterly price peaks in Londrina, state of Paraná, Brazil. .Full size tableIn this scenario, driven by the devaluation of the real against the dollar, the increase in domestic consumption and exports influenced the supply of grains in the market, and agricultural commodities such as soybeans and corn reached high sale values. Thus, it is evident that the market is able to condition the farmer’s profitability, which can influence the results of the analysis, both positively and negatively, according to the daily variations in grain commercialization prices53.From the results, it is evident that species diversification in crop rotation has enabled an increase in both grain productivity and economic gains. It is not enough to simply adopt no-till practices without species diversification in grain production systems31,32; it is necessary for the systems to be aligned with the no-tillage system and conservation agriculture principles. The main reasons for investing in crop diversification are as follows: production of roots and straw to cover the soil surface; improved soil structure and sustained soil biology; nutrient cycling; breaking the cycles of pests, diseases, and weeds; productivity gains; and increased profitability. Thus, the challenge lies in the diffusion of production systems aligned with the principles of the no-tillage system and conservation agriculture, that is, to diversify without failing to produce and obtain gains from grain production. Information on the benefits of grain production systems that employ crop rotation with species diversification, tested and with demonstrated economicity, such as those presented in this study, can therefore be decisive for producers’ decision-making and the adoption of practices aligned with sustainability in agriculture. More

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PTM concentrationsIn Table 1, the descriptive statistics of PTMs in 50 dust samples from Qom city are described. The background values were used based on the concentrations of metals in the Upper Continental Crust. The mean concentration of As, Cd, Cu, Mo, Pb, Sb, and, Zn exceeded the background value. Also, Cd, Cu, Mo, Pb, Sb, and, Zn had a coefficient of variation (C.V.) greater than 50%, indicating a severe variability in PTMs concentrations in the atmospheric dust of the studied area2. Metals with C.V.  Pb  > Zn  > As  > Cd  > Cu  > Mo  > Cr  > Mn  > Ni = Co. Antimony (38.55) and Pb (35.13) had the highest average EF values, which means they were enriched very high in the windowsill dust. Also, they had a wide range of EF values in the 50 stations: from 4.0 to 227.0 for Sb, and from 8.3 to 140.8 for Pb which might reflect the existence of discrete multiple sources in the studied area. The degree of enrichment for Pb and Sb in the industrial sector was extreme and in the commercial sector was very high; also, the other sectors were significantly enriched. Zinc and As had a more homogenous enrichment in the area. In all the functional sectors, 95% and 84% of stations were significantly enriched by As and Zn, respectively. Copper, Cd, and Mo were moderately enriched in all functional sectors, but the greenspace sector had minimal enrichment by these elements. Some areas in the industrial sector had significant to very high enrichment of Cd. The EF value indicated Co, Cr, Mn, and Ni were minimally enriched in all the stations.Figure 2Box plot of the (a) enrichment factor (EF), and (b) geo accumulation index (Igeo) for the dust samples in the studied area.Full size imageThe highest average values of Igeo were obtained in the order of Pb  > Sb  > As  > Zn. PTMs included Co, Cr, Ni, Fe, and Mn were categorized as unpolluted and Cd, Cu, and Mo were in the category of unpolluted to moderately polluted. In the industrial zone, the windowsill dust was extremely polluted with Sb and Pb. The sequence of contamination intensity with Pb, Zn and Sb according to land use was: industrial  > commercial  > residential  > greenspace. The highest concentration of arsenic in the study area belongs to the industrial area.To evaluate the pollution level based on land use, PLI and mCd indices were utilized (Fig. 3). These cumulative indices showed that the dust in Qom city is considerably contaminated with PTMs. According to the PLI index, all the stations were categorized as polluted sites. The PLIzone values were in the order of industrial (3.77)  > commercial (2.05)  > residential (1.67)  > green space (1.38). This pattern was also repeated with the mCd index. The mCd for the industrial sector ranged from 6.98 (high contamination level) to 39.60 (ultra-high contamination level). In the commercial sector, fifty percent of dust samples were classified as having a high degree of contamination. All the greenspace stations were in the moderate pollution category. This shows the possible effect of tree density in diminishing the risk of dust pollution to the receptors.Figure 3Pollution level indexes (a) mCd and (b) PLI, based on four functional areas.Full size imageSpatial distribution of PTMsThe As, Cd, Cu, Sb, Pb, and Zn content in 100% of the dust samples exceeded the background value. Spatial distribution maps were generated for the hotspot PTMs (As, Sb, Pb, Cd, Cu, Mo and Zn) by applying the inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation method (ArcGIS 10.3). Figure 4 demonstrates that PTMs dispersions were slightly influenced by the prevailing wind direction (from the west), suggesting they came from the point- or area- sources. On the other hand, the K–S test showed that the overall distribution of PTMs was not normal in the studied region. This might signify the influence of industrial activities and the presence of multiple sources of dust.Figure 4Spatial distribution maps of seven PTMs in windowsill dusts of Qom, Iran. This map was constructed using ArcGIS version 10.3. (https://www.esri.com/en-us/arcgis/products/arcgisdesktop/overview).Full size imageThe highest pollution load of PTMs belonged to the industrial section. The level of pollution gradually decreased from Shokouhieh to Mahmoudabad industrial zones. The reason is related to more active industries, a closed environment, and more construction existing in Shokouhieh industrial town than in Mahmoudabad industrial town.There is a clear decreasing trend from the central part to southern (downtown area) and southwestern (suburb area) parts of the city. In fact, these parts are diffusely populated and the southwestern part is almost new with lots of barren lands. Copper, Mo, and Cd show high concentrations toward the central part of the city. Educational, cultural and commercial activities are mainly located in the central part of the city. Also, historical and religious districts in the city center are accompanied by a huge influx of tourists throughout the year. For this reason, the central part of the city has various public transportations such as bus stands and taxi stations, and is dominated by a high load of motorcycles.In the eastern part of the city, some hotspots can be observed (Fig. 4). This part includes an important transportation system (like highways and a complex interchange) where exhaust traffic emissions might be a probable source of As, Sb, Pb, and Zn. Unlike Pb and Zn, several peaks of As are scattered in the western part, suggesting an area source might exist in the region. It is noteworthy that the western area is densely populated with lots of residential buildings. Bisht et al. (2022)35 also observed hotspots of As in the residential area of Dehradun, India.PTM potential sourcesTo evaluate the relationship between PTMs in dust samples, the Spearman correlation and PCA were developed (Fig. 5) and more details are given in Table S7. Statistical analysis can help to identify the potential source of contamination in urban dust. The Spearman correlation was significant at p  residential ≈ greenspace. The five PTMs with the highest overall HI are ranked as follows: Pb  > As  > Cr  > Mn  > Sb (Fig. 7). The HI values in all the sections were lower than the permissible level (1.00), except for Pb. In the industrial section, Pb recorded the highest HI value for children (HI = 1.73) which exceeded the acceptable value. The HI values were 10 times higher for children than adults indicating they are more susceptible to PTMs in the dust.The dominant pathway for noncancerous risk was ingestion followed by dermal contact and inhalation. The trend is in line with previous research25,51,52. However, for Co and Mn, the descending order was different as follows ingestion  > inhalation  > dermal contact. The highest contribution of HQinh and HQderm to HI was measured for Co (34.0%) and Cd (29.0%), respectively.In this study, the carcinogenic risk from windowsill dust was estimated for the carcinogens including Cd, Co, Cr and Ni, Pb, and As through the possible routes (Fig. 8, Table S9). The contribution of PTMs to CR decreased in the order of Cr (3.24E−05)  > As (2.05E−05)  > Pb (2.52E−06)  > Co (6.91E−09)  > Ni (1.72E−09)  > Cd (2.58E−10). The average CR values for target PTMs through inhalation ranged from 7.9E−10 to 1.7E−07, which remained in the safety zone (CR  inhalation  > dermal (Fig. 8). While the contribution of Cr to carcinogenic risk was higher through inhalation than ingestion. The reports concluded that the primary exposure route of Cr is inhalation54. Considering the predominant forms of Cr in the environment, CrVI is more toxic than CrIII. Exposure to CrVI can cause immunological diseases, dental effects and carcinogenic effects (lung cancer, nose and nasal sinus cancer, suspected laryngeal and stomach cancers)54,55.The result of health risk from target PTMs in windowsills of Qom indicates significant chronic exposure to Pb can take place for children in the industrial zone. The ingestion route is the most probable pathway for children due to their hand–to–mouth behavior56. Lead can bio-accumulate in the body without any obvious symptoms of toxicity56. The total CR values for Pb, Cr and As in different land-use types were in the range of tolerable carcinogenic risk (1 × 10−4  More

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