Philippa Kaur

These authors contributed equally: Laura H. Antão, Benjamin Weigel.These authors jointly supervised this work: Tomas Roslin, Anna-Liisa Laine.Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, FinlandLaura H. Antão, Benjamin Weigel, Giovanni Strona, Maria Hällfors, Elina Kaarlejärvi, Otso Ovaskainen, Marjo Saastamoinen, Jarno Vanhatalo, Tomas Roslin & Anna-Liisa LaineDepartment of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USATad DallasDepartment of Biology, Lund University, Lund, SwedenØystein H. OpedalFinnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, FinlandJanne Heliölä, Mikko Kuussaari, Juha Pöyry & Kristiina VuorioNatural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, FinlandHeikki Henttonen, Otso Huitu, Andreas Lindén, Päivi Merilä, Maija Salemaa & Tiina TonteriSection of Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku, FinlandErkki KorpimäkiFinnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, FinlandAleksi LehikoinenKainuu Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment, Kajaani, FinlandReima LeinonenUniversity of Helsinki, Helsinki, FinlandHannu PietiäinenDepartment of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, FinlandOtso OvaskainenCentre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, NorwayOtso OvaskainenHelsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, FinlandMarjo SaastamoinenDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, FinlandJarno VanhataloSpatial Foodweb Ecology Group, Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, FinlandTomas RoslinSpatial Foodweb Ecology Group, Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, SwedenTomas RoslinDepartment of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zürich, Zürich, SwitzerlandAnna-Liisa Laine More

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The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) last month released its annual report on elephant poaching. It reveals a downward trend across African range states, based on data from its Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants programme. The decline correlates with reduced ivory trading over the period, particularly in the Chinese market.
Competing Interests
The author declares no competing interests. More

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During recent decades, pathogens that originated in bats have become an increasing public health concern. A major challenge is to identify how those pathogens spill over into human populations to generate a pandemic threat1. Many correlational studies associate spillover with changes in land use or other anthropogenic stressors2,3, although the mechanisms underlying the observed correlations have not been identified4. One limitation is the lack of spatially and temporally explicit data on multiple spillovers, and on the connections among spillovers, reservoir host ecology and behavior, and viral dynamics. We present 25 years of data on land-use change, bat behavior, and spillover of Hendra virus from Pteropodid bats to horses in subtropical Australia. These data show that bats are responding to environmental change by persistently adopting behaviors that were previously transient responses to nutritional stress. Interactions between land-use change and climate now lead to persistent bat residency in agricultural areas, where periodic food shortages drive clusters of spillovers. Pulses of winter flowering of trees in remnant forests appeared to prevent spillover. We developed integrative Bayesian network models based on these phenomena that accurately predicted the presence or absence of clusters of spillovers in each of 25 years. Our long-term study identifies the mechanistic connections among habitat loss, climate, and increased spillover risk. It provides a framework for examining causes of bat virus spillover and for developing ecological countermeasures to prevent pandemics. More

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