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    Melanesia holds the world’s most diverse and intact insular amphibian fauna

    The richness of Melanesian FrogsApproximately 7.2% (534 out of 7404) of Earth’s recognised frog species occur in Melanesia, a region comprising < 0.7% of the world’s land area. Frog richness in Melanesia, and especially on New Guinea and nearby land-bridge islands (471 species), is higher than in any other tropical insular region (Fig. 1a). New Melanesian frog species have been described at an average rate of nearly 13 species/year since 2000, and the recognised frog fauna has grown by > 50% in that timeframe (Fig. 1b). The authorship of new species has been concentrated, with six authors featuring on 20 or more descriptions since 2000, and one or more of these six authors on every species description since 2000. A small number of species descriptions has included genetic data (31 species), although a higher number of Melanesian frog species have at least one sequence available on GenBank (~38%, or approximately 200 species). This taxonomic work has revealed or emphasised many evolutionary novelties (Fig. 2): multiple apparently independent derivations of extremely miniaturised vertebrates22,23,24, including some of the world’s smallest known tetrapods23,25,26; multiple derivations of complex parental care in different genera27,28; frequent evolutionary shifts between terrestrial, arboreal and scansorial lifecycles22,29; the most extreme sexual size dimorphism yet documented in anurans30; drastic ontogenetic colour change31; a radiation of canopy-dwelling treefrogs32 that show extensive finger webbing and parachuting behaviour convergent with unrelated frog lineages in Asia and the Neotropics; and treefrogs with erectile noses33,34. Taxonomic work has also elucidated novel concentrations of range-restricted endemic taxa, especially in the Milne Bay Region at the far eastern edge of New Guinea21.Fig. 1: Temporal trends in the documentation of the Melanesian frog fauna.a Species accumulation curves for species-rich ( >100 species) insular frog biotas (Species lists from AmphibiaWeb as of 1 October 2021). Separate accumulation curves are given for the entire fauna of Melanesia (including New Guinea), and the fauna of New Guinea and nearby predominantly land-bridge islands. b Species accumulation curve for frogs within Melanesia. Bar at end indicates predicted number of species in each major family based on known, but as yet undescribed candidate species.Full size imageFig. 2: Melanesian frog species described within the last 15 years illustrating the ecological and morphological diversity of the fauna.a Paedophryne titan and b Choerophryne gracilirostris – examples of lineages that have undergone convergent minaturisation; c Choerophryne alpestris – a fossorial species within a largely scansorial lineage; d Xenorhina macrodisca – scansorial species within a largely fossorial lineage; e Cornufer custos and f Oreophryne oviprotector – independent derivations of complex parental care; g Litoria pallidofemora – extensive digital webbing for parachuting; and h Litoria pinocchio – sexually dimorphic and erectile rostral spikes. Photographs F. Kraus (a), S. Richards (b–g), and courtesy of T. Laman (h).Full size imageFrog species richness in Melanesia is highly concentrated into just three families, with Pelodryadidae (137 recognised species, estimated ~200) and especially Microhylidae (317 species, estimated >400) dominating. Melanesian Pelodryadidae are phylogenetically interdigitated with relatives in Australia, suggesting multiple dispersals between the two regions35. In contrast, ancestors of the direct-developing microhylids colonised Melanesia from Asia via trans-marine dispersal likely only once36, radiated across open ecological niches37, and are now the most species-rich insular radiation of frogs in the world. The third major family comprises an ecologically diverse radiation of the direct-developing Ceratobatrachidae (57 species, estimated 66) largely associated with island-arc terranes of East Melanesia and the Philippines, indicating a long history of insular diversification and trans-marine dispersal38. The predominance of direct-developing frogs in Melanesia (~70% of species) mirrors insular faunas in Madagascar (~34%), Sri Lanka (~67%) and the Greater Antilles (~87%). The other four frog families in Melanesia are all relatively species poor (2, 3, 4, and 13 species) (Fig. 1a), centred in New Guinea, and include lineages originating in Asia (Ranidae, Dicroglossidae) or Australia (Myobatrachidae, Limnodynastidae).The described diversity of Melanesian amphibian species remains an underestimate. Survey work and investigation of museum collections by the co-authors identified ~190 additional candidate species distributed across 16 different genera, mostly from Papua New Guinea, suggesting a total richness of over 700 frog species (Fig. 1a, Supplementary Table 1). This estimated percentage of undescribed diversity (~25%) mirrors estimates for the New Guinean flora (~18–22%)7. The majority of candidate species are concentrated in the two most diverse families (Microhylidae and Pelodryadidae), although genetic, morphological, and acoustic evidence indicate the diversity of Melanesian Ranidae is also underestimated (S. Richards and F. Kraus pers. obs.). Most material documenting candidate species has been collected in the last 20 years, and the vast majority is from Papua New Guinea (Supplementary Fig. 1). There is some suggestion of a slowing in the rate of candidate species discovery in the last decade (Supplementary Fig. 2); however, several of the most active field workers in this region have ceased survey work in recent years, which likely accounts for much of this decline. The pervasiveness of complexes of morphologically and/or acoustically cryptic taxa is poorly understood; survey work continues to reveal novelties, and large areas of the region remain unsurveyed or undersampled. In particular, comparisons of area-to-diversity ratios between the better-known eastern portion of New Guinea (Papua New Guinea) with the poorly surveyed western (Indonesian) portion of the island further suggest that, even with candidate species included, diversity in the latter region may be underestimated by as much as 50% (Supplementary Methods and Results, Supplementary Table 2). These trends and patterns all indicate that ~ 700 species is a very conservative minimum estimate of total diversity and support analyses in other taxa showing Melanesia remains a hotspot of unrecognised diversity39,40.Endemism and distributional patternsThe Melanesian frog fauna is highly endemic (97.2%), with tiny proportions of species shared with Australia (2.4%) or with islands farther west in Indonesia (0.6%), indicating that Australia and Melanesia are discrete centres of frog diversification, despite periodic connection via land bridges through the late Tertiary41. The vast majority of Melanesian frog species (471) occur on New Guinea and nearby land-bridge islands (Raja Ampats, Japen and the Milne Bay islands). In comparison, the frog fauna of the much smaller region of Maluku is depauperate (16 species, of which nine are endemic) but also almost certainly underestimated (e.g., there are no Microhylidae recorded from Buru). Most taxa from Maluku are congeneric (and several conspecific) with lineages centred on New Guinea, supporting the biogeographic clustering of Maluku’s amphibians with the main island of New Guinea. In contrast, the frog fauna of East Melanesia is more diverse and highly endemic and dominated by an ecologically diverse radiation of a different family (Ceratobatrachidae) with only four (all pelodryadid treefrogs) out of 56 species shared with nearby New Guinea. East Melanesia and New Guinea appear to be discrete and long-isolated centres of diversification, as expected from their independent geological histories42.Melanesia spans five countries, and this has possibly to some degree masked the exceptional species diversity of the overall region. Papua New Guinea has the highest number of species (398) and endemic species (318). This likely reflects some combination of its slightly larger area (when islands to the north are included), more diverse geological origins, and greater inventory work than seen in neighbouring regions of Indonesia7. Papua, West Papua and Maluku (Indonesia) have many fewer documented species (197), of which a majority (134) is endemic. The boundary between Papua and Papua New Guinea is visible in species-richness maps (Fig. 3a), with lower diversity to the west, indicating that the distribution and diversity of frogs in Indonesia remain less documented in science. The frog faunas of the Solomon Islands (21 species) and Fiji (two species) are more depauperate but include a significant endemic or near-endemic component, whereas the geographically intervening islands of Vanuatu support no native frogs.Fig. 3: Frog species richness in Melanesia based on IUCN distributional maps for all species described by 2019.a All species; b Ceratobatrachidae; c Microhylidae; d Pelodryadidae. Areas of highest estimated diversity correspond to mountain ranges in central and northern New Guinea. The boundaries between Maluku, New Guinea and East Melanesia are indicated. Fiji has only two frog species and is geographically distant from other areas of Melanesia inhabited by frogs and is not visble on this map.Full size imageBased on distribution maps generated for all species recognised by 31 August 2019, the highest regional alpha diversity of frogs occurs along the Central Cordillera of New Guinea (especially in Papua New Guinea) and around the higher mountain ranges along the north coast of Papua New Guinea (Fig. 3a). These centres of diversity correlate with extensive areas of hill and montane forest and broadly correspond with elevational species-richness patterns for mammals and birds in Melanesia43 and for many other taxa elsewhere in the tropics44,45. Large areas of montane forest with lower species richness along the northern versant of the Central Cordillera in Papua New Guinea and in mountain ranges across Papua certainly reflect inadequate sampling. The ceratobatrachid-dominated frog fauna of East Melanesia is richest in Bougainville (Fig. 3d), with attenuating richness towards the west and especially to the east. The two most speciose families both show alpha diversity peaks in mountainous areas of central New Guinea (Fig. 3c–d). In contrast, microhylids are largely absent from the seasonally dry woodlands of the Trans-Fly region in southern New Guinea and exhibit high diversity in northern New Guinea, whereas pelodryadids are much more speciose in the lowlands of southern New Guinea than northern New Guinea. These broad trends may have both ecological (sensitivity of direct-developing microhylids to dry conditions) and historical (Australia as a centre of origin for savanna-adapted Pelodrydidae) underpinnings.The historical and contemporary factors underpinning high frog species diversity in New Guinea remain largely unstudied, especially when compared to other species-rich insular amphibian faunas such as Madagascar46 or the Greater Antilles47. When compared to some areas of the Neotropics, alpha and beta diversities of frogs in lowland forests in the basins of the Sepik and Ramu rivers in New Guinea are unremarkable48. However, the Milne Bay Region has exceptionally high levels of endemism21, so species turnover will be higher in this area. Extent-of-occurrence estimates derived from IUCN maps indicate that direct-developing microhylids have smaller mean and median range sizes than all other families of frogs in Melanesia (Supplementary Table 3). Microhylidae also dominate anuran species diversity in Milne Bay21 and many mountain areas where standing water is very limited49. These data suggest that, as with some areas in the Neotropics50, high beta diversity in lineages with direct development is a key factor underpinning amphibian megadiversity in Melanesia. To address these questions further, synthetic analyses are required to better quantify the extent to which regional megadiversity in Melanesia reflects high community diversity versus species turnover, how elevation and insularity moderates these two parameters, and to what extent emergent patterns may differ from diverse frog communities in other regions such as the Neotropics.The conservation status of Melanesian FrogsThe frog fauna of Melanesia is currently less threatened but more Data Deficient than other comparable insular regions (Fig. 4a). The vast majority of Melanesian frogs are categorised as Least Concern (68%) or Data Deficient (24%). Thirty-one species (6%, or 8% if Data Deficient taxa are excluded) are threatened (Critically Endangered, Endangered, Vulnerable) (Supplementary Table 4), and eight species are considered Near Threatened. No species are assessed as Extinct or Extinct in the Wild. Since the first Global Amphibian Assessment in 2004, the number of Melanesian frog species has grown by 44%, and nearly 60% of the 31 Melanesian frog species now considered threatened were described after 2004 (Fig. 1a). Only one change in status between 2004 and 2019 was considered genuine (Cophixalus sphagnicola), due to the emerging threat of a newly opened mine. All other status changes (for 116 taxa) reflect better information on distribution or changed assessment protocols (Supplementary Table 5). Applying stricter criteria for use of the Data Deficient category in the 2019 IUCN assessment reduced the number of Data Deficient species when compared to 2004 (125 versus 197), but Melanesia still has a higher percentage of Data Deficient taxa than other species-rich tropical insular faunas (Fig. 4a).Fig. 4: The conservation status of Melanesian frogs.a Comparison of number of species in each IUCN threat category across Melanesia, other diverse insular regions, and the nearby continent of Australia. Melanesia has a proportionally low number of threatened taxa but high number of Data Deficient taxa (EX Extinct, CR Critically Endangered, EN Endangered, VU Vulnerable, NT Near Threatened, DD Data Deficient, LC Least Concern, NE Not Evaluated); b Slopes around Mt Simpson, Milne Bay Province, a hotspot of threatened frog diversity due to forest loss through conversion to anthropogenic grasslands; c Choerophryne sanguinopicta from Mt Simpson (Critically Endangered); d Oreophryne ezra from Rossel Island (Critically Endangered) and; e Cornufer citrinospilus from New Britain (Vulnerable). Photographs F. Kraus (b–d), S. Richards (e).Full size imageAll Critically Endangered and Endangered—and most of the Vulnerable—species were listed because of their small extent of occurrence and on-going decline in habitat area and/or quality (criteria B1ab(iii)) (Supplementary Table 6). The key threatening processes were typically forest disturbance or loss due to conversion to plantations or gardens, repeated burning, or mining (Fig. 4b–c). Only two insular species with very localised montane distributions were considered threatened by climatic disturbance and/or climate change alone (Cornufer citrinospilus and Oreophryne ezra) (Fig. 4d–e). No species were currently declining from pathogens, and in particular Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which remains undetected in Melaneisa51. However, the introduction and establishment of Bd has been identified as a severe threat for well over one hundred taxa52, especially for montane pelodryadid treefrogs, a group that has been devastated by this disease in parts of Australia.Although much of New Guinea has historically been considered a ‘wilderness area’ with comparatively little human impact53, the distributions of threatened taxa also highlight areas of conservation concern wherein range-restricted (often single-island endemic) taxa overlap with extensive and increasing anthropogenic impacts (Fig. 5a–b). Nearly half the species identified as threatened (13) are restricted to a recently delineated dramatic centre of herpetofaunal endemism in the Milne Bay Region at the eastern tip of Papua New Guinea21. Three clusters of small-range endemics in this region (all documented in the last two decades) present immediate conservation issues. The first is Mount Simpson, where six microhylids (four named, two awaiting description) with highly restricted ranges are threatened by habitat loss, especially repeated burning and associated conversion of forest to grassland (Fig. 4b). The second is Woodlark Island, where the status of seven endemic microhylids (six named, one undescribed) is likely to worsen rapidly if current, approved proposals to convert large areas of primary forest to oil-palm plantation and/or gold mines proceed21. Finally, Misima Island is home to four endemic microhylids (two considered threatened) with ranges that overlap areas disturbed by mining and forest loss21. Other regions with multiple overlapping threatened taxa are the Adelbert Mountains in Morobe Province (two species), New Britain (two lowland species and one highland species), and Greater Bukida in the Solomon Islands (three lowland species). These clusters of narrow-range taxa highlight important—and in most cases largely overlooked—conservation priorities for Melanesian frogs (and likely other taxa as well21,54). The high percentage of Data Deficient species and low level of survey effort in many areas (especially Papua and West Papua Provinces, Indonesia) also raise the possibility that other threatened hotspots remain overlooked. One area of particular concern may be the island of Biak in Indonesia, which has lost much of its primary vegetation but is home to at least three endemic frogs (one Data Deficient, two Least Concern).Fig. 5: The distribution of threatened frogs in Melanesia.a The estimated distribution of all 31 Melanesian frog species considered Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable at the end of 2019. Distributional areas are not colour coded by the number of threatened taxa. b Close up of the Milne Bay endemism hotspot. Distributional areas are colour coded by number of taxa, with darker tones indicating more taxa. In both a and b upland areas or islands where the distributions of two or more threatened species overlap are labelled and the number of threatened taxa are indicated in parentheses. Background maps uses the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 30-meter digital elevation model, accessed from USGS Earth Explorer (https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/).Full size imageUnderstanding and conserving a megadiverse biotaThe Melanesian flora and frog fauna are both now shown to be megadiverse and highly endemic, yet both also remain poorly known with large areas under-surveyed. An updated comprehensive assessment of threats and taxonomic trends across the frog fauna presented here further highlights that the biota of Melanesia remains relatively intact and less threatened when compared to other biodiverse insular regions. However, a large proportion of the fauna remains Data Deficient or undescribed, and key hotspots of endemism have been overlooked and are increasingly threatened. In both plants and anurans much scientific knowledge of Melanesia’s biota has also been contributed by a relatively small number of productive, but later-career researchers based outside of Melanesia7.Further documenting and conserving the exceptional diversity of Melanesia presents a suite of challenges and opportunities. Recommendations to enable improved documentation of plant megadiversity in Melanesia7 centre around training, capacity-building and support for taxonomy in Melanesia and globally, improving access to specimen collections and diagnostic resources, and ongoing support for survey and collecting within Melanesia. These recommendations apply equally to amphibians. However, addressing these challenges is tempered by the limited career opportunities available to ecologists and taxonomists (both in developed, but especially in developing countries), the variable quality of scientific infrastructure that exists across the region, and the high cost of doing fieldwork in remote areas with limited logistical infrastructure. In the context of these challenges, we hereby focus on suggesting some short-term key priorities and opportunities to build capacity for understanding and conserving frog biodiversity in Melanesia.First, over the last twenty years opportunities to employ Melanesian nationals in survey, monitoring and outreach work have been (and will continue to be) generated predominantly by NGOs, universities and large-scale extractive projects, for example through recent work in the gas fields of the Papua New Guinea Highlands49. While there are diverse perspectives on extractive industries, monitoring and survey work associated with large development projects are a key source of funds to provide training to enable Melanesians to undertake biodiversity work within the region. A key driver of this is strong environmental legislation required by some governments and major lending agencies, in particular the International Finance Corporation under Performance Standard 655. These requirements need to be maintained, enforced and, where possible, exceeded.To further support fieldwork by national scientists there is a need for more readily accessible identification resources for Melanesian researchers, land-owners and managers. An up-to-date comprehensive identification guide to the frog fauna of the whole region would assist and promote taxonomic, ecological and conservation research. However, for many Melanesians, small, regionally focused guides are more usable. These have already been produced for several areas (Supplementary References), providing a model that can be updated and transferred to other regions. Mobile phones are widely used throughout Melanesia, so app- and online-based identification resources may become increasingly accessible. Smartphone-friendly citizen science platforms like iNaturalist56 or even Facebook groups57 also provide potentially powerful resources through which locally collected data can be captured, vetted and disseminated, although their use is currently limited in Melanesia due to patchy internet coverage in many areas. Working with and supporting people from Melanesia to explore and increase the use of these resources could help to ensure longer-term preservation and accessibility of species records and associated data.The latest IUCN assessment for Melanesian frogs also highlights how taxonomic and conservation knowledge is accumulating rapidly. The key geographic areas of threat identified in our study were largely invisible to assessments made less than two decades ago (in 2004) both because the relevant taxonomic work had not been done, and because the situation in Melanesia is changing rapidly. To keep track of these rapid changes it is critical for workers in the region to work together to synthesise and collate new taxonomic, distributional and conservation data. Indeed, since the 2019 IUCN assessment over 20 additional species of Melanesian frogs have been described, and their conservation status should be assessed as a matter of urgency. Preliminary conservation assessments against IUCN criteria are increasingly being included in descriptions, and this trend should be supported and encouraged. More Melanesian nationals need to be involved in conservation assessment processes. Updated comprehensive conservation assessments of other vertebrate groups will also identify complementarity of conservation priorities among taxa in the Melanesian region.Patterns of distribution and threat suggest some geographic priority areas for documenting the diversity of amphibians (and potentially other low-vagility taxa) in Melanesia. First, work in eastern New Guinea has allowed the delineation of geographically localised clusters of threatened taxa that have until now gone unnoticed, perhaps in part because of the designation of much of Melanesia as a sparsely populated and comparatively undisturbed ‘wilderness’ area21. Most threatened frog taxa in these regions are associated with small islands or isolated ‘sky island’ mountains. The degree to which other taxa show endemism in these areas is poorly known. The biotas of potentially comparable islands in Indonesia such as the Raja Ampat Islands, Geelvink Bay and southern Maluku, also remain poorly known, suggesting additional priority areas for survey, taxonomic investigation and conservation assessment. Second, mid-elevation areas show highest alpha diversity, but large areas of this habitat, especially along the northern slopes of the Central Cordillera, remain poorly surveyed. The frog pathogen Bd has devastated montane communities of two Australian frog families that also occur in montane New Guinea (Myobatrachidae and Pelodryadidae)52. In the unfortunate event that Bd colonised New Guinea a wave of rapid declines and extinctions would likely follow52, so a strong baseline of information on montane species diversity, distributions and population status is critical for detecting these impacts. More

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    Low levels of sibship encourage use of larvae in western Atlantic bluefin tuna abundance estimation by close-kin mark-recapture

    Our results show that GoM BFT larval survey samples can provide the crucial mark events for eventual CKMR estimates of adult abundance. The adult parents marked by larval samples can be directly recaptured in the fishery many years later as POPs, and indirectly through their progeny in future samples of larvae, as evidenced by the two cross-cohort HSPs (XHSPs) recovered in this study, which imply that a parent survived and spawned in the GoM in consecutive years. As more cohorts are sampled in future, the growing number of XHSPs could be used to estimate average adult survival rates, in addition to helping with the estimation of adult abundance31, as is now done for southern blue tuna40.There is a modest level of sibship within our 2016 samples, and a high level (involving over half the samples) in 2017, but it turns out not to be high enough to cause serious problems for POP-based CKMR. High sibship per se does not lead to bias in CKMR by virtue of the statistical construction of the estimate, but it does increase variance, which can be summarized through a reduction in effective sample size. In a POP-based CKMR model, our effective sample size would be about 75% of nominal for the two years combined, or 66% of nominal for the targeted sampling of 2017. Since it is actually the product of adult and juvenile sample sizes which drives precision in CKMR14, one way to think about the 75% is that we will need about 33% more adult samples to achieve a given precision on abundance estimates than if we had somehow been able to collect the same number of “independent” juvenile samples (i.e. without oversampling siblings). That increase is appreciable but entirely achievable; for WBFT, it is logistically much easier to collect more feeding-ground adult samples than to collect more larvae, and at present there is no known practical way to collect large numbers of older, more dispersed, and thus more independent, juvenile western origin bluefin tuna (WBFT).This study was motivated by the concern that sibship might be a serious impediment to use of WBFT larvae for CKMR. High levels of sibship have been found in larval collections for other taxa despite a pelagic larval phase, suggesting that abiotic factors can impede random mixing of larvae after a spawning event41. Our larval samples were only a few days old (4–11) and thus had little time to disperse since fertilization; our concern beforehand was that each tow might sample the offspring of a very small number of adults (one spawning group in one night), and in 2017 that repeatedly towing the same water mass might simply be resampling the same “family”. In practice, though, the cumulative effect was limited. Samples were not dominated by progeny from just a few adults; the maximum DPG size (i.e., number of offspring from any one adult) was 5, which is under 2% of the larval sample size. There are several possible reasons for this finding. First, plankton sample tows are typically standardized to a ten-minute duration, covering on average about 0.3 nautical miles. Based on continuous plankton cameras42, each tow is likely to tow through multiple patches of zooplankton, and therefore potentially multiple patches of BFT larvae. Second, spawning aggregations of BFT may contain many adults. For example, on the spawning grounds near the Balearic Islands in the Mediterranean, purse seine fisheries target spawning fish and individual net sets routinely capture upwards of 500 mature individuals43. These numbers suggest that BFT spawner aggregations can be quite large, although the number of individuals that contribute gametes to a single spawning event may be lower. The results of this study pose intriguing scenarios for understanding BFT larval ecology and spawning behavior, which could be explored with larger sample sizes paired with data on oceanographic conditions, direct observation of spawning aggregations, and modeling to compare observed and predicted dispersal. The results of this study are based on just two years of sampling, and numerous practical and theoretical challenges remain to fully understand BFT reproduction in the GoM.Our sibship impact calculations assume use of an unmodified adult-size-based CKMR POP model, where each juvenile is compared to each adult taking into account the latter’s size (e.g.,14). That will give unbiased estimates, which we regard as essential in a CKMR model. However, for WBFT the estimates are not fully statistically efficient, in that some adults receive more statistical weight than others because they are marked more often (by having a large DPG), and thus variance might not be the lowest achievable. Modifying the model to fix that would be simple in a “cartoon” CKMR setting where all adults are identical (e.g., Fig. 1 of14), simply by first condensing each DPG to a single representative, then only using those representatives (rather than all the larvae) in POP comparisons. Each marked parent then receives the same weight, giving maximum efficiency. For the cartoon, this condensed-DPG model still gives an unbiased estimate of abundance, because each DPG has one parent of given sex, and the chance of any sampled cartoon adult of that sex being that parent is 1/N. The DPG-condensed effective sample size is simply half the number of distinct parents, which would be a little larger than the effective sample sizes for the unmodified model shown in Table 3; e.g., in 2017, 504/2 = 252 versus 209. However, no such straightforward improvement is available for an adult-size-based CKMR model such as is needed for WABFT. Using condensed DPGs directly would bias the juvenile sampling against larger more-fecund adults, whose DPGs will tend on average to be larger and thus to experience disproportionate condensation. Those adults would be marked less often by the DPG-condensed juveniles than the model assumes, violating the basic requirements for unbiased CKMR in14. A more sophisticated model might be able to combine unbiasedness with higher efficiency but, since the unmodified adult-size-based POP model that we expect to use is unbiased and only mildly inefficient (at worst 209/252 = 83% efficient, in 2017) there seems no particular need for extra complications at present. However, that may not hold true if we eventually move to a POP + XHSP model, where the impact on unmodified CKMR variance is worse (though there is still no bias, for the same reason as with POPs). Intuitively, the biggest impact that a DPG of size 5 can have in a POP model is to suddenly raise the number of POPs by 5 if its parent happens to be sampled; within a useful total of, say, 75 POPs, the influence is not that large. But if two DPGs both of size 5 in different cohorts happen to share a parent, then the total of XHSPs suddenly jumps by 25— likely a substantial proportion of total XHSPs. Supplementary Material B also includes effective sample size formulae for a simplified XHSP-only model, which demonstrate the increased impact of within-cohort sibship; for our WBFT samples, it turns out that the XHSP-effective size is slightly lower for the targeted 2017 samples (110) than for the 2016 samples (130), unlike the POP-only effective size. Dropping from a maximum theoretical effective sample size of 252 (half the number of DPGs) down to 110 would be rather inefficient and would increase the number of years of sampling required to yield a useful XHSP dataset. This motivates developing a modified POP + XHSP model that retains unbiasedness without sacrificing too much efficiency. In principle, that can be done by condensing each DPG but then conditioning its comparison probabilities on the DPG’s original size, in accordance with the framework in14. This is a topic for subsequent research, and the results will inform future sampling strategy decisions for WBFT.One potential difficulty for western BFT CKMR might occur if a substantial proportion of animals reaching maturity are the offspring of “Western” (in genetic terms) adults who persistently spawn in the western North Atlantic but outside the GoM. However, as long as the adults marked by GoM larvae are well mixed at the time of sampling with any western adults that do spawn outside of the GoM, the total POP-based population estimate of genetically-western BFT from CKMR will remain unbiased. Given evidence from tagging of widespread adult movements within the western North Atlantic2, good mixing in the sampled feeding grounds seems likely; so, even if successful non-GoM western BFT spawning really is commonplace, there should not be a problem with relying on GoM larvae for at least the POP component of CKMR14.Studies of fish early life history have long been considered to have great potential to provide novel insight into the unique population dynamics of fishes44,45,46. Sampling efforts aimed at estimating fish recruitment dynamics have spawned a diversity of larval survey programs. Examples of these long-term programs include the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) surveys in the North Atlantic and adjacent areas, Southeast Monitoring and Assessment Program (SEAMAP) in the GoM, Ecosystem Monitoring (EcoMon) in the Northeast U.S., and numerous others, many of which provide indices of larval abundance widely used in fisheries and ecosystem assessments. Yet, as a result of the inherent patchiness of larvae42, sampling variability, and highly variable density dependent mortality45, fisheries scientists have often struggled to determine how larval surveys relate to the adult fish populations. Inclusion of estimates of sibship among larvae collected in surveys could refine estimates of adult spawning stock biomass estimated from these surveys.The results of this study also represent products of decades of work and coordination in obtaining high-quality DNA from larval specimens. Key steps to successful genotyping of larvae include ensuring that larvae are preserved, sorted, and handled in 95% non-denatured ethanol. In addition, strict instrument cleaning protocols must be followed, and stomachs should be removed or avoided (this study used larval tails and, when possible, eyes to avoid cross contamination of prey contents, including possible congeners and other BFT individuals). Exposure to hot lamps during the sorting and dissection processes should also be minimized to ensure that DNA quality is sufficiently high for genotyping-by-sequencing. Although the tissues available for genetic analysis were limited by the needs of other experiments that required BFT tissues, otoliths, gut contents, and other information from the same larvae, we were able to successfully genotype most larvae greater than 6 mm SL and identify thousands of informative SNPs. The lower size limit of larvae could likely be decreased if whole specimens were available for genotyping, although the use of younger larvae could increase the incidence of sibship.In summary, while we observed both FSPs and HSPs in larval collections, with elevated sibship overall and with siblings being more prevalent within tows and in nearby tows, the level of sibship was sufficiently low that collections of GoM BFT larvae can still provide the critical genetic mark of parental genotypes required for CKMR. Our results demonstrate a crucial proof of concept and are the first step towards an operational CKMR modelling estimate of spawning stock abundance for western BFT. More

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    Zebras of all stripes repel biting flies at close range

    The evolutionary origins of zebra stripes have been investigated—and debated—for centuries. The trait is rare, conspicuous, and intensely expressed, and thus appears to beg an adaptationist explanation. However, the utility of a complete coat of densely packed, starkly contrasting black-and-white stripes is not immediately apparent. Unlike many conspicuous visual traits, striped pelage is expressed with comparable intensity in both sexes and is thus unlikely to have arisen through sexual selection alone (although in plains zebras, Equus quagga, males have stripes closer to true black than females). Stripes are clearly not aposematic warning signals, nor do they provide camouflage in either the woodland or savannah habitats common across zebra ranges1,2. So, striping presents an ideal evolutionary puzzle: a trait so refined it seems it must be “for” something, but one that confers no clear advantage upon its bearers and imposes apparent costs (conspicuousness) that cannot be explained in Zahavian terms.Scientists have proposed and investigated several possible explanations for the evolution of zebra stripes (reviewed in3). The hypotheses suggest various ways in which stripes may provide a social function (species or individual recognition or social cohesion1,4), a temperature-regulation benefit5,6, an anti-predator effect7,8, or an anti-parasite effect9,10. There is continued debate over both the merits of individual hypotheses and the likelihood of stripes having arisen via a single driver vs. a confluence or alternation of multiple selective pressures6,11.The present study addresses the hypothesis that has thus far received the most empirical support: the anti-parasite hypothesis (also known as the ectoparasite hypothesis12). Zebras, like most ungulates, are harassed by tabanid, glossinid and Stomoxys species of biting flies, which can inflict significant blood loss, transmit disease, and weaken hosts when fly-avoidance behaviors reduce the host’s feeding rate9,13,14. Yet zebras are attacked far less than sympatric ungulates across their African range15,16, and also less than other equids9,17. Zebras also produce odors that may augment their anti-fly defenses18, but so do other sympatric ungulate species18,19, and a host of observations and experiments have demonstrated that black-and-white stripes alone are unattractive, or actively repellent to tabanid, glossinid, and Stomoxys flies17,20,21,22,23.Though the effect of stripes on flies is well-established, the source of the effect remains unexplained. Since Waage’s foundational studies in the 1970s and 1980s9,24 most hypotheses have suggested ways that stripes might interfere with the visual and navigational systems of flies, making it harder for them to locate, identify, or successfully land on striped targets. These hypothetical mechanisms can be roughly grouped by the distance (and the attendant phase of a fly’s orientation and landing behavior) at which they would likely operate:

    From afar: stripes might make it harder for flies to locate and distinguish zebras from background vegetation, perhaps by breaking up their outline9 or varying the way they polarize or reflect light17,31 especially from distances at which composite eyes support only low-resolution vision and cannot resolve zebra stripes as clear bands of alternating color on a single host (estimated at  > 2.0 m22,  > 4.4 m24, and even  > 20 m25).

    At close range (estimates range from 0.5 to 4.0 m26): stripes might interfere with orientation or landing behavior via any of several disruptive or ‘dazzle’-related visual effects27. For example, stripes might affect ‘optic flow’, or the fly’s perceived relative motion to its target as it approaches, by creating an illusion of false direction or speed of motion (e.g., via variants of the ‘barber pole’ or ‘wagon wheel’ effects28). Alternatively, relative motion to a striped pattern within the visual field may create the perception of self-rotation, inducing the fly’s involuntary ‘optomotor response’ and resulting in an avoidance turn in an effort to stay on a straight course29.

    Finally, stripes might cause confusion in the transition between long- and short-distance orientation. If zebras appear as blurred gray from a distance and then, at closer range, suddenly resolve into a sequence of floating black and white bars, this abrupt ‘visual transformation’26 might disrupt the behavioral sequence that facilitates landing.

    Within these categories, hypotheses have proliferated faster than experimental tests of many of the proposed mechanisms. The very active literature on this question has grown in somewhat haphazard fashion, as curious researchers test new possibilities without eliminating old ones6. Importantly, few experiments have controlled the distance from which flies are first able to view potential landing sites (but see23). While growing evidence supports a mechanism operating at close range22,26, failing to restrict the starting distance of the fly means that the full set of possible mechanisms outlined above all remain plausible contributors to most previous results.Additionally, while many studies have, appropriately, used artificial stimuli to isolate basic effects of color, pattern, brightness, and light polarization of (usually flat) test surfaces, possible contributions of several aspects of natural zebra pelage remain untested. Controlled experiments have used various landing substrates, including striped and solid oil tray traps, sticky plastic, smooth plastic17, cloth (Experiment 2 in22), horse blankets or sheets26, and paint on live animals30. These have all clearly demonstrated a broadly replicable visual effect: stripes, and some other juxtapositions of black and white (e.g., checkerboard patterns26), repel flies. However, insofar as specific features of zebra pelage factor into proposed mechanisms of fly repellence—the reflective properties of “smooth, shiny” coats31; the orientation of the stripes17,32; the light-polarizing effects of black and white hair vs. background vegetation25; and the complex structure of hair25—there is a need for more experiments that present natural targets to wild flies (but see22,33). Similarly, most experiments have compared landing preferences between black-and-white striped, solid black, solid white, and occasionally solid grey substrates, which have served as important controls for determining that light polarization, rather than a combination of polarization and brightness, is sufficient to induce the effect of stripe avoidance17. However, it is now time to refocus on the original question by presenting flies with more realistic choices. Since biting flies seeking a bloodmeal on the African savannah seldom encounter solid black hosts, and even more rarely solid white hosts, landing choices should be compared between zebra stripes and common coat colors of sympatric mammals, namely various shades of brown. Further, tabanid, glossinid, and Stomoxys flies all avoid landing on stripes that are the same width or narrower than the widest zebra stripes 17,23, and there is some evidence that narrower stripes are even more repellent to tabanids17. This pattern is potentially significant in the application of the anti-parasite hypothesis to an adaptive explanation for the striking variation in stripe width across zebra species and between the different areas of the body on individual zebras22, but must first be confirmed with experiments using real zebra pelage.Here, we present a simple experiment designed to address each of these gaps in the literature on the anti-fly benefits of zebra stripes. In this field experiment, the landing choices of flies were tested entirely within the range at which all estimates agree flies should be able to perceive the presented stripes ( More

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    Sampling from four geographically divergent young female populations demonstrates forensic geolocation potential in microbiomes

    Cohort demographicsA total of 206 female participants were enrolled in the study and passed our quality control standards. All participants were required to be between the ages of 18–26 years old (22.5 ± 2.1) and to be born and at the time living in one of four geographically distinct regions of the world: Barbados; Santiago, Chile; Pretoria, S. Africa; and Bangkok, Thailand. The regions do, however, differ by an order of magnitude in their geographic spread as the intra-distance separating the residence neighborhood of participants ranged from 34 (Barbados) to 681 km (Pretoria, S. Africa) (Fig. S2). The Chilean and the South African datasets are further divided into two contiguous sub-regions, or neighborhoods, to allow for a micro-geographic analysis. The study population is largely dominated by individuals with self-identified Thai heritage (33%), followed by Black African (16%), Afro-Caribbean (14%) and white (14%) descent, although 19% of the Chilean population did not report ethnicity.Study participants, despite the divergent geographies, mostly have similar dietary and lifestyle habits (Table S1). Over half the study population (62%) have a normal BMI, with the mean BMI in this range (22.6 ± 5.5). The diets of the different cohorts are also similar as of the total cohort, 78% consume a starch heavy diet (≥ 4 days a week) of rice, bread and pasta, followed by 66% who frequently consume (≥ 4 days a week) vegetables and fruit and 49% who frequently consume dairy products. The study population is split by level of tobacco exposure, with 51% of the population having never smoked, and 43% being exposed to second-hand smoke through living with a smoker. Over half (56%) of the study population own one or more pets.Stool microbiomeThe OTUs identified using the UPARSE pipeline17 were used to compute the alpha diversity of the microbial communities using the Chao1 (species richness) and Shannon (species evenness) indices. The mean Shannon indices reveal that the microbiota diversity is only significant between Thailand-Chile with FDR  More