Philippa Kaur

Deforestation trajectories and economic driversCambodia has undergone significant forest loss in recent decades—with 2.6 million hectares of forest cover loss occurring since 2001, equating to 29.5% of forest cover7 and 1.45 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions8. The deforestation rates have increased by 76% in the last decade (2011–2021) compared to the previous (2001–2010; Fig. 1b)7. We find forest loss has occurred within three distinct Phases demonstrated by changepoint analysis: (1) Phase 1: steady rise from 2000 to 2009 (average = 0.82%/year), (2) Phase 2: peak years from 2010 to 2013 (average = 2.3%/year), (3) Phase 3: moderate phase from 2014 to 2021 (average = 1.6%/year). Whilst the annual rate of deforestation has declined since the Phase 2, Cambodia currently has the highest country-level annual rate of forest loss globally7, illustrating the relentless deforestation spreading across the landscape. Critically, much of this forest loss and degradation is occurring in mature primary forests (Fig. 1b), which hold significant carbon and are home to rich biodiversity and keystone species17,18,19.
This deforestation in Cambodia has been attributed to the widespread development of Economic Land Concessions (ELCs), the expansion of numerous agricultural frontiers and relentless illegal logging20,21,22. These drivers have been abetted by the establishment of an extensive national road network (Fig. 1a)20—developed to promote economic growth and urban–rural connectivity23. The majority (88.4%) of these roads have been funded by foreign governments (the People’s Republic of China: 38.5%, Japan: 37.9%, and Republic of Korea: 12.0%)18—all of whom have established land concessions within Cambodia’s borders24 through the allocation of state land into private land for long-term industrial plantations22,25. The expansion of ELCs across Cambodia (average addition of 105,000 ha/year of ELC land since 1998) has been directly attributed to up to 40% of the country’s deforestation21, with further indirect impacts due to encroachment into rural community lands (indigenous areas, community forests, subsistence agricultural fields). This results in landlessness, poverty, and land conflicts, forcing communities to migrate in search of arable land, further contributing to the growing degradation and destruction of forests22,26,27,28,29.Strategic government interventionProtected areas expanded across Cambodia in 1993 following a royal decree26; the legal details of which were delineated in the 2008 Protected Areas Law, introducing protected categories, wildlife corridors and strict laws prohibiting development9. While over 80 protected areas currently exist covering 35% of Cambodian land10, they are still under substantial threat30. In further efforts to curb deforestation, the Royal Government of Cambodia ordered the suspension of new ELCs and revocation of a subset of existing ELCs in 2012 (Order 01BB)31. This resulted in a reduction of ELCs from a peak of ~ 2.1 million ha in 2012 to ~ 1.6 million ha from 2014 onward (Fig. 1b), with a significant positive correlation between the quantity of land classified as ELCs and the country-level deforestation rate (R = 0.87, p  More

The interaction between the two factors (substrates and CRF rates) was statistically significant by the F-test (p  More

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