Philippa Kaur

Project 1: mesocosm field experimentsMesocosm experiments took place at Lockwood Farm located in Hamden, Connecticut. Individual mesocosms were composed of black 20 L cylindrical plastic containers filled with 12 L tap water and seeded with 10 mg of a 3:2 ratio liver powder/brewer’s yeast mixture and 1 g of grass hay. Drain-holes were drilled into the sides of each container 5 mm from the 12 L surface to allow flooding for Aedes spp. egg emergence and to allow overflow beyond this level due to precipitation. Four experimental mesocosm clusters were dispersed throughout the Lockwood Farm in microhabitats previously sampled in Eastwood et al.22. Clusters contained 4 mesocosms spaced 3 m apart in a 2 × 2 grid. We utilized four L. sphaericus treatment levels in each cluster: no L. sphaericus, the LC50 (0.053 ITU/ml) and LC95 (1.0 ITU/ml) for Culex pipiens derived from Burtis et al.3, and the label rate of L. sphaericus (~ 1.2 ITU/ml). All treatments were derived from VectoLex WDG. Prior to insecticide application, we prepared 1 L of a 1000 ITU/ml stock solution. To inoculate each mesocosm, we measured the depth of the container’s water column, calculated water volume, and applied the appropriate amount of stock to achieve the target LC value. Replicate insecticide treatments were randomized within each cluster, and insecticides were applied 30-days post mesocosm seeding with nutrients. All mesocosms in each cluster were rotated within the 2 × 2 grid each week. Two clusters were then randomly chosen for a second application of L. sphaericus 30-days post initial insecticide application.To sample the larval habitat of each mesocosm, we performed a figure-8 sweep with an aquarium fish net (4 × 3-in. opening, Penn-Plax) each Monday and Thursday of the week for each week of the experiment. Sweep contents were washed from the net into a white photo development pan, and pupae were removed for in-lab identification after eclosion following a dichotomous key23. All larvae were then returned to the mesocosm. This sampling protocol minimized destruction of larval habitats and influence of interspecific interactions due to removal sampling.In addition to sampling containers for pupae, we collected water samples from each container for an in-lab bioassay to determine the realized mortality of the larval environment. Due to time constraints of the field crew, a 50% randomized sample of containers were sampled on Monday with the remaining 50% sampled on Thursday of each sampling week. Bioassay procedures followed McMillan et al.24 for Cx. pipiens with the addition of screening mortality in CAES’ Ae. albopictus colonies. We finally performed in-lab susceptibility trials to L. sphaericus with larvae from CAES’ Cx. pipiens and Ae. albopictus colonies to confirm each species’ colony varied in their sensitivity to the product. Briefly, 15 3rd to 4th instar larvae of each species per replicate dose were exposed to a wide range of L. sphaericus concentrations and mortality was recorded 24-h post-exposure. Lethal concentrations were then estimated from a generalized linear model with mortality (corrected for mortality in untreated control replicates) as the response term and the log10-dose as the predictor term.Primary endpoints from the field experiment included the number and species identity of pupae collected from each mesocosm. We compared total weekly pupal collections per mesocosm using a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) framework with treatment level and cluster ID as fixed effects, species ID and week of collection as a random effect, and a Poisson-error distribution. We repeated this analysis excluding all collected Culex spp. to examine how the L. sphaericus treatments impacted the more tolerant Aedes spp. The primary endpoint for the mortality assays was the corrected larval mortality. We initially compared mortality using a species-specific GLMM with L. sphaericus treatment concentration and treatment period as fixed effects, week of collection as a random effect, and a binomial-error distribution. Preliminary analyses revealed negligible variance attributed to week of collection, so all subsequent models were a GLM. All analyses were performed in R V4.1.325 using the following packages: tidyverse26, gridExtra27, ggplot228, ggeffects29, and glmmTMB30.Project 2: laboratory competition assaysCompetition assays took place at CAES’ main facility in New Haven, CT. This facility contains an Ae. albopictus colony (founded circa 2014 from Stratford, CT) and a Cx. pipiens colony (founded circa 2018 from New Haven, CT;). Colony maintenance for each species was similar: larval rearing pans consisted of approx. 200 eggs (on papers, Ae. albopictus, or as egg rafts, Cx. pipiens) in ~ 2 L RO water and initiated with ~ 20 ml of a 1% 3:2 liver powder/brewer’s yeast slurry. Pans were held at 25.5 °C and 80% humidity and fed ~ 20 ml of the 1% slurry every other day. Pupae were removed to an eclosion chamber and adults were allowed access to 10% sucrose solution ad libitum. Aedes albopictus females were given access to defibrinated sheep’s blood (HemoStat©) through a Hemotek membrane feeder for 1 h every 2–3 weeks and moistened, fluted filter paper was provided to collect eggs. Culex pipiens females were given access to a live, restrained buttonquail overnight once per week and a small cup seeded with 5 ml 1% slurry and 15 RO ml water was provided to collect egg rafts. The use of buttonquail was reviewed and approved in accordance with CAES Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee.We performed two experiments. All experiments consisted of the following treatments: variable ratios of Ae:Cx larvae and two L. sphaericus treatments (no treatment and 0.01 ITU/ml). Larval density (40 per container) remained constant across all replicate treatments, but Ae:Cx ratios varied from 40/0, 30/10, 20/20, 10/30, and 0/40. Nutrients supplied were a low concentration (3 mg larva−1) of a 3:2 liver powder/brewer’s yeast mix applied at the beginning of the experiment. Temperature was held constant at the colony maintenance level. Assays took place in 300 ml disposable plastic cups filled with 100 ml of RO water. The first experiments consisted of the addition of the 40 larvae as newly hatched individuals (+/− 1 day between species’ hatch) at the appropriate ratios, the larval diet, and the 0.01 ITU/ml concentration (diluted from a lab stock of 1000 ITU/ml). Assays were monitored daily until all larvae were dead and/or all larvae pupated. Experiment 2 consisted of the addition of only the Cx. pipiens larvae and the larval diet. After all Cx. pipiens had pupated, containers were treated with L. sphaericus and then the Ae. Albopictus larvae were added.Primary endpoints included species-specific pupation success. Preliminary analyses in a GLMM framework revealed negligible variance attributed to a replicate ID random effect; replicate as a random term also interfered with model convergence. Preliminary analyses further revealed there was neither a significant interaction nor an improvement in the Akaike Information Criterion between the L. sphaericus treatment and initial starting condition terms. Thus, we adopted a GLM rather than a GLMM framework in all further analyses, and species-specific mortality was analyzed as a binomial response term with treatment and initial starting conditions included as fixed effects All analyses were performed in R V4.1.325 using the following packages: tidyverse26, gridExtra27, and ggplot228. More

UAVs indeed proved to be a practical, efficient, and accurate tool in sampling insects within four different habitats in Quebec. Furthermore, different drone settings of speed, height, and net diameter may yield different insect orders, which can be useful in studies that aim to target specific insects. Nonetheless, only height, and not speed, net diameter or drone type influenced insect abundance. Compared with Lindgren funnels, drones were not only able to catch more insects in less time, but also a wider array of the insect community diversity.Our study successfully shows the promise of using drones to collect forest and wetland canopy arthropods. More arthropods were collected flying at zero meters (grazing the canopy) than flying at one meter, while different speed, net size and drone type had less of an effect on insect yield (Fig. 2). The one-meter setting was expected to yield different arthropod diversity, such as fewer terrestrial families (ex. Araneae) and more aerial families (ex. Diptera) compared to the grazing zero-meter setting. However, the proportions of the top three orders (Diptera, Hemiptera, and Araneae) were similar among settings (Fig. 3). The capture of arachnids at one meter above the canopy can be explained by webs that are attached to taller foliage in proximity to the area, or spiders ‘ballooning’ in the airspace on silk threads25. Because canopy height was not always uniform, flying while grazing the canopy underneath the drone was at times lower than other parts of the canopy. Another explanation could be jumping spiders (ex. family Salticidae) which have been found to react to a disturbance or threat by leaping, possibly into the drone net26. Though the main three orders were in similar proportion, the one-meter setting caught five fewer orders in total than the zero-meter setting did. Flying at one meter was the only setting that captured no insects of order Coleoptera, Hymenoptera, or Orthoptera, suggesting that these orders spend time in and among the wetland canopy, and are seldom above the grassy canopy (Fig. 3). Most importantly, this setting only caught nine insects total over all flights, revealing itself to be an inefficient method of insect collection. This can be due to the number of insects available to be collected at each height. When flying at one meter, the net has access to only aerial insects in flight above the canopy (ex. flies). Flying while grazing the canopy, however, gives the researcher access to the same aerial insects in flight above the canopy, but also aerial insects in flight within the canopy (ex. bees), aerial insects at rest on the canopy (ex. leafhoppers), and terrestrial insects on the canopy (ex. ants). Thus, flying the drone while grazing the canopy opens the possibility of capturing three more insect groups compared to flying above the canopy. It is also possible that there are indeed many insects to be caught solely in the airspace, but that the ideal height for collecting insects strictly above the canopy is either less than or greater than one meter—which is the only height above the canopy that we tested.This sampling period caught three total insects from order Odonata, with two of the three being caught with the 18-inch diameter net setting (Fig. 3). As these dragonflies are typically fast flyers and of large body size, perhaps the extra diameter of the larger net was helpful in increasing the chances of catching Odonates, though we do not have enough data to make solid conclusions. This would be a valuable line of future research for studies focused on dragonflies, or other large and fast-flying insects.Flying the drone and hanging sweep net at 20 km/hr yielded the highest number and proportion of insects in the order Hemiptera, which are often found at rest within the canopy27. We speculate that the faster speed of the drone striking the grassy canopy more swiftly, thus giving the insects resting on the grasses less of an opportunity to evade the threat of the approaching net. Future studies targeting the collection of true bugs should utilize a faster drone speed in flight to optimize yield.With 84% of insects found within the second layer of our net, we conclude that our novel net design with two layers of tulle is satisfactory in retaining insects and preventing most from escaping when landing the drone. In addition to the insects counted, we never witnessed any insects flying out during landing stages. We believe that our methodology of flying the drone in quickly and covering the opening of the net with cardboard before landing the drone, in addition to the extra layer of netting, was successful at retaining the insects caught. Determining how to fly the drone and net over the two forest canopy habitats was a challenge. When flying, it was impossible for the drone camera to look both forward—to see obstacles coming up, and downwards—to see how close the net was hanging regarding the top of the canopy. For this reason, we used a second drone as a spotter for the first, the pilot of which could give instructions on moving up or down. Forest canopies were particularly difficult, as the height from one tree to the next was always different, the drone had to be constantly adjusted. We experienced many snags on branches, although they were not damaging to the net or drone. Once we became comfortable flying the drone low enough to graze the canopy, snagging became a common occurrence that was easily remedied. In fact, snagging the net probably helped in the collection of insects on those branches—a technique that could be honed and used in future studies using nets and drones over forest canopies.Over our 12 days of sampling habitat canopies with drones, we were able to determine that wetlands had the highest diversity and abundance of the four habitats examined, with lake habitats showing the lowest Shannon-Weiner Diversity index (H’), and the highest Pielou’s evenness index (J). It is unsurprising that lakes showed the most even distribution of families, as is often the case with habitats having low species richness, as there are less competitors that could dominate the habitat28. Habitat, humidity, and temperature were the most important variables affecting drone insect yield, with habitat being the common variable in all high scoring models. Wetlands had by the far the most insects collected, in addition to the highest diversity and species richness. This can be explained simply by the plant composition in wetlands compared to the other habitats. While coniferous and deciduous forests are dominated by a few species (and lakes have little to no vegetation over the water) wetlands can host a wide variety of plant species. Because insect diversity correlates with plant richness and abundance, wetlands can provide shelter and sustenance for many more groups of insects that the other habitats we studied29.Lindgren funnels disproportionately collected insects from order Coleoptera (Fig. 7). Although Lindgren funnels have been used in papers reporting results focused on insects of orders Hemiptera30,31,32,33 and Diptera34,35,36, it is unclear whether some were targeted studies or all simply bycatch of the funnel from other experiments. Instead, Lindgren funnels are overwhelmingly used in Coleoptera studies as the funnels resemble a tree and attracts various wood-boring beetles37,38,39,40,41. This attraction explains the large number and proportion of beetles caught in funnels in this study. However, diversity indices show that in three of four habitats, drones collect a higher diversity sample than the Lindgren funnels (Tables 1 and 2). Thus, though Lindgren funnels are undoubtedly effective at collecting beetles from the environment, our results indicate that the drone collection method is preferable when seeking an accurate representation of the insect diversity of the habitat. Studies focused on Coleoptera could also employ this method, which would be helpful in determining the status and proportion of beetles within the population and compared to other insect orders.In addition to the larger diversity collected by drones, the temporal advantage of this technique over the funnels can not be understated. During our study, it took three Lindgren funnel traps established for seven days to collect a total of 36 insects at the wetland sites (0.001 insect collected per minute). Comparatively, at the same height and placement, drones were able to collect 391 insects in only a combined 36 min (10.9 insects collected per minute) (Fig. 7). This large difference in both yield and time scale demonstrates that the drone collection method is vastly more efficient at arthropod sampling compared to the Lindgren funnels.While this study was successful at validating the usefulness of drones in canopy entomology studies and insect collection in general, it does have its limitations. Optimal drone settings were only examined at wetland grassy canopy sites, and it is possible that the drone might perform differently within different habitats. For example, grazing the canopy at 20 km/hr might result in high insect yield at wetlands, where the lack of obstacles made it relatively easy to fly quickly. But the same settings may be unrealistic and prone to net snagging when sampling over other habitats, such as the coniferous forest canopy. Furthermore, Lindgren funnels were an acceptable comparison to drone collection for yield and diversity at some habitats, however it was impossible to get the funnels up into the canopy where sampling took place at coniferous and deciduous sites. There is no doubt that the advantage of this method lies in its accessibility, speed, and safety—studies that need more precise and fine sampling might not benefit from drones.Overall, our research demonstrates that drones are an efficient and accurate tool in collecting a wide diversity of insects above the canopies of different habitats. Benefits included rapidly and safely sampling the airspace while drawbacks included battery life limiting the duration of sampling. If this new technique is integrated into the field of entomology, canopy studies can be done much more often, for less money, and more safely than they have been done using other techniques. In 2019, a review of the potential causes of decline of aerial insectivores concluded that insect declines and changes in high quality prey availability could be a large driver of insectivore declines9. However, there is a lack of research detailing insect trends over time. The drone collection method used in this study could provide the missing link between the need for more research of aerial canopy insects and the limitations of the current methodology in entomology. This technique can be used in conjunction with aerial insectivore surveys and diet studies to begin to determine the relationship between declining predators and prey. Future research may also use and add to our guidelines to customize drone and net settings for studies targeting specific insect orders or families. More

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Study areaWe conducted the study in the best-preserved stands of the Białowieża Forest, strictly protected within the Białowieża National Park (hereafter BNP; coordinates of Białowieża village: 52°42′N, 23°52′E). The extensive Białowieża Forest (c. 1500 km2) straddles the Polish-Belarusian border, where the climate is subcontinental with annual mean temperatures during May–July of 13–18 °C, and mean annual precipitation of 426–940 mm66,67.The forest provides a unique opportunity to observe animals under conditions that likely prevailed across European lowlands before widespread deforestation and forest exploitation by humans66,68,69. The stands have retained a primeval character distinguished by a multi-layered structure, frequent fallen and standing dead trees, and a high species richness66,70. The stands are composed of about a dozen tree species of various ages, up to several hundred years old. The interspecific interactions and natural processes have been little affected by direct human activity.We conducted observations mostly within the three permanent study plots (MS, N, W), totalling c. 130 ha, and in other nearby fragments of primeval oak-lime-hornbeam Tilio-Carpinetum or mixed deciduous-coniferous Pino-Quercetum stands. However, a small number of observations from adjacent managed deciduous forest stands were also included. For details of the study area see71,72,73.Study speciesOur study system focused on ground-nesting Wood Warblers Phylloscopus sibilatrix, blowflies Protocalliphora azurea, and Myrmica or Lasius ants, which occurred in the birds’ nests.The Wood Warbler is a small (c. 10 g) insectivorous songbird that winters in equatorial Africa and breeds in temperate European forests, typically rearing one or two broods each year74. Wood Warblers build dome-shaped nests for each breeding attempt, composed of woven grass, leaves and moss, and lined with animal hair73. The nests are situated on the ground among moderately sparse vegetation, often under a tussock of vegetation or near a fallen tree-branch or log (see examples in Supplementary Fig. S2)53,75. The breeding season of Wood Warblers begins in late April–early May and ends in July–August, when nestlings from replacement clutches (after initial loss) or second broods leave the nest. The typical clutch size in BNP is 5–7 eggs, and the nestling stage lasts 12–13 days74,76.Wood Warbler nests are inhabited by various arthropods, including Myrmica ruginodis or M. rubra ants, and less often Lasius platythorax, L. niger or L. brunneus. The ants foraged and/or raised their own broods within the Wood Warbler nests52. The Myrmica and Lasius ant species are common in Europe77,78. Their colonies contain from tens to thousands of workers, and can be found on the forest floor, e.g. in soil, within or under fallen dead wood, in patches of moss, or among fallen tree-leaves53,77,78. All of the ant species found in the Wood Warbler nests are predators of other arthropods77,79,80.Blowflies, Protocalliphora spp., are obligatory blood-sucking (hematophagous) ectoparasites that reproduce within bird nests. The occurrence, abundance, and impact of blowflies on Wood Warbler offspring is largely unknown, similar to many other European songbirds that build dome-shaped nests. Adult blowflies emerge in late spring and summer to lay eggs on the birds’ nesting material or directly onto the skin of typically newly hatched nestlings14,26. The blowfly larvae hatch within two–three days, and develop in the structure of warm bird nests for another 6–15 days, during which they emerge intermittently to feed on host blood, before finally pupating within the nests14,25,26,27.Data collectionNest monitoring and measurements of nestlingsWe searched for Wood Warbler nests daily from late April until mid-July in 2018–2020, by following birds mainly during nest-building. Nests were assigned to a deciduous or mixed deciduous-coniferous habitat type, depending on the tree stand where they were found. We inspected nests systematically, according to the protocol described in Wesołowski and Maziarz76. The number of observer visits was kept to a minimum to reduce disruptions for birds or potential risks of nest predation.We aimed to establish the dates of hatching (day 0 ± 1 day), nestlings vacating the nest (fledging; ± 1 day) or nest failure (± 1–2 days). When nestlings hatched asynchronously, the hatching date corresponded to the earliest record of nestling hatching. The dates of fledging or nest failure were the mid-dates between the last visit when the nestlings were present in the nest, and the following visit, when the nest was found empty. Nest failure was primarily due to predation, which is the main cause of the Wood Warbler nest losses in BNP76,81 and elsewhere in Europe82,83.To assess fitness consequences for birds of variable weather conditions, blowfly abundance and/or ant presence, we measured nestling growth and determined brood reduction (i.e. the mortality of chicks in the nest) from hatching until fledging. To define brood reduction, we assessed the number of hatchlings (nestlings up to 4 days old) and the number of fledglings leaving the nests. To ensure accurate counting and avoid premature fledging of nestlings, we established the number of fledglings on the day of measurement, when all nestlings were temporarily extracted from the nest.We measured nestling growth on a single occasion when they were 6–9 days old (median 8 days), almost fully developed but too young to leave the nest. The measurements lasted for less than 10–15 min at each nest to minimise any potential risk of attracting predators. For each nestling we measured (using a ruler) the emerged length of the longest (3rd) primary feather vane (± 0.5 mm) on the left wing84,85, and body mass to the nearest 0.1 g using an electronic balance. The length of the feather vane is closely linked to feather growth86 and is one of the characteristics of nestling growth85,87. We treated the length of the primary feather vane and body mass as indices of nestling growth rate under varying conditions of weather, blood-sucking ectoparasites, or ant presence.Extraction of arthropods from bird nestsTo assess the number of blowflies and to establish the presence of ants, we checked the contents of 129 nests (including 11 nests from the managed forest stands) at which Wood Warbler nestlings had been measured. The sample included 86 successful breeding attempts (where a minimum of one nestling successfully left the nest), 27 failed (predated) nests (remnants of nestlings were found, but the nest structure remained intact), and 16 nests with an unknown fate (nestlings were large, so were capable of leaving the nest, but no family were located or other signs indicating fledging).Due to ethical reasons, we were unable to collect the Wood Warbler nests and extract the ectoparasites and ants from them while they were in use by the birds. Removing the nests and replacing them with dummy nests would cause unacceptable nest desertion by adults. Therefore, we assessed the occurrence and number of blowflies or ant presence after Wood Warbler nestlings fledged or the breeding attempts failed naturally. We retrospectively explored the changes in blowfly infestation14, including the effect of ant presence53 in the same nests.We collected nests from the field as soon as a breeding attempt ended, within approximately five days (median 1 day) following fledging or nest failure (nest structure remained intact). The delay of nest collection would not bias the ectoparasite infestation, as blowfly larvae pupate within bird nests and stay there after the hosts abandon their nests; puparia can be still found in nests collected in autumn or winter14. As the likelihood of finding ant broods (larvae or pupae associated with workers) was rather stable with the delay of nest collection53, the method seemed reliable also for assessing the presence of ant broods (35 of all 71 Wood Warbler nests containing ants). Only the number of nests with lone foraging ant workers could be underestimated, potentially inflating the uncertainty of tested relationships. However, as ants usually re-use rich food resources88, foraging Myrmica or Lasius ant workers might regularly exploit warbler nests, increasing the chances of finding the insects in the collected nests.Wood Warbler nests were collected in one piece, with each placed into a separate sealed and labelled plastic bag. We carefully inspected the leaf litter around the nests, and the soil surface under them, to make sure that all blowfly larvae or pupae were collected. We transported the collected nests to a laboratory, where we stored them in a fridge for up to 5–6 days before the arthropod extraction.To establish the number of blowflies and the presence of ants, in 2018, we carefully pulled apart the nesting material and searched for the arthropods amongst it 52. We gathered all blowfly pupae or larvae and a sample of ant specimens into separate tubes, labelled and filled with 70–80% alcohol, for later species identification. For nests collected in 2019–2020, we extracted the arthropods with a Berlese-Tullgren funnel. During the extraction, which usually lasted for 72 h, each nest was covered with fine metal mesh and placed c. 15 cm under the heat of a 40 W electric lamp. The arthropods were caught in 100 ml plastic bottles containing 30 ml of 70–80% ethanol, installed under each funnel. After the arthropod extraction, we carefully inspected the nesting material in the same way as in 2018, to collect any blowflies that remained within the nests. The quality of information collected on the number of ectoparasites and ant presence should be comparable each year.Weather dataWe obtained the mean daily temperatures and rainfall sums from a meteorological station, operated by the Meteorology and Water Management National Research Institute in the Białowieża village, 1–7 km from the study areas.Data analysesWeather conditions affecting blowfly ectoparasitesTo explore the impact of weather on blowfly ectoparasites, for each Wood Warbler nest we calculated average temperatures from daily means, and total sums of rainfall from daily sums, for the two time-windows in which we assumed the impact of weather would be of greatest importance:

i.

the early nestling stage, when Wood Warbler nestlings were 1–4 days old. During this stage, female blowflies require a minimum temperature of c. 16 °C to become active and oviposit in bird nests27. Thus, cool and wet weather in the early nestling stage should reduce the activity of ovipositing blowflies, leading to less frequent ectoparasite infestation of Wood Warbler nests.

ii.

The late nestling stage, when the warbler nestlings were aged between over four days old and until fledging or nest failure. During this stage, blowfly larvae grow and develop in bird nests after hatching a few days after oviposition14,25,26,27. As the temperature of bird nests strongly depends on ambient temperatures21, mortality of blowfly larvae should increase in cool weather, resulting in fewer ectoparasites in nests collected shortly after the fledging of birds29.

Weather conditions affecting Wood Warbler nestling growthTo explore the impact of weather on nestling growth, for each nest we calculated the average temperatures and total sums of rainfall for the period when nestlings were over four days old and until their measurement, usually on day 8 from hatching (see above). During this stage, nestlings are no longer brooded by a parent74, so must balance their energetic expenditure between growth (feather length and body mass) or thermoregulation89. Thus, we expected that the gain in body mass and the growth of flight feathers would be reduced in nestlings during cool and wet weather, when maintaining a stable body temperature would be costly90.Statistical analysesAll statistical tests were two-tailed and performed in R version 4.1.091.The changes in blowfly infestation of the Wood Warbler nestsTo test the changes in blowfly infestation of warbler nests, we used zero-augmented negative binomial models (package pscl in R;92,93), which deal with the problem of overdispersion and excess of zeros92. In this study, hurdle and zero-inflated models fitted with the same covariates had an almost identical Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Therefore, we presented only the results of hurdle models, which are easier to interpret than zero-inflated models. Hurdle models consisted of two parts: a left-truncated count with a negative binomial distribution representing the number of blowflies in infested nests, and a zero hurdle binomial estimating the probability of blowfly presence. We used models with a negative binomial distribution, which had a much lower AIC than with a Poisson distribution on a count part.We designed the most complex (global) model that contained a response variable of the number of blowflies in each of the 129 Wood Warbler nests. The covariates were: mean ambient temperature, total sum of rainfall, presence (or absence) of ants in the same nests, habitat type (deciduous vs mixed deciduous-coniferous forest), study year (2018–2020), the number of nestlings hatched (brood size), and nest phenology (the relative hatching date of Wood Warbler nestlings, as days from the median hatching date in a season: 23 May in 2018, 25 May in 2019 and 29 May in 2020). The initial global model also contained the two-way interaction terms that we suspected to be important: between temperature and rainfall, temperature and presence of ants, and rainfall and presence of ants.To explore all potentially meaningful subsets of models, we used the same covariates on both parts (count and binomial) of the global model. We performed automated model selection with the MuMIn package94, starting from the most complex (global) model and using all possible simpler models (i.e. all subsets)95. To attain the minimum sample size of c. 20 data points for each parameter96, we limited the maximum number of parameters to six in each part (count or binomial) of the candidate models.As some of the interaction terms appeared insignificant in the initial model selection, to minimise the risk of over-parametrisation, we included only the significant interaction term on a count part of the final global model. As described above, we performed model selection again. We tested linear relationships, as the quadratic effects of weather variables (presuming temperature or rainfall optima) appeared insignificant.To test whether blowfly infestation changed with weather in the early or late nestling stages, we twice repeated the procedure described above. The first global model included the mean ambient temperature and the total sum of rainfall for the early nestling stage, and the second global model contained weather variables for the late nestling stage. The remaining covariates were the same.A practice of including the same sets of covariates on count and binomial parts has been previously questioned97. However, our approach allowed us to comply with these objections97, as we presented only the most parsimonious models (with ΔAICc  More

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