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Given Caprinae life history and plausible combinations of mean recruitment and adult female survivorship, we evaluated population persistence and estimated population MVP. The values describing adult female survivorship and recruitment, plus the variability we employed match values found in other populations of Caprinae. We do not pool data across different Caprinae populations or species. Our approach and results directly inform the conservation and management of many Caprinae, especially those for which the acquisition of demographic data remains beyond reach.Our work embodies the characteristics of a high-quality PVA: clear objectives, appropriate demographic data, model structure matching species life histories, stochasticity, examination of extinction probability, appropriate time interval, use of mean values and associated variability6. As with most ecological models, the quest for more data remains problematic, not debilitating, and is addressed by creatively and aptly using existing information to generate meaningful results3.Wildlife agencies generate lamb:adult female ratios from Caprinae surveys, recognizing that yearlings can be mistaken for adult females, causing miscounts. Excluding yearlings from the ratio’s denominator assumes that no miscounts are occurring, yet an unknown and inconsistent number of yearlings remain in the adult female category across survey events. For these reasons, surveyors of other species, like Dall’s sheep and caribou, pool counts of yearlings and adult females, generating lamb:“adult female-like” ratios instead15,23,24,25.Managers of Caprinae populations can follow these precedents and produce lamb:(adult female + yearling) ratios. Consistency would help standardize methods for building comparisons and meta-analyses across populations of Caprinae, while reducing variability across surveys due to differing techniques.Typically, metrics like elasticity (proportional) and sensitivity (additive) describe the influences of demographic parameters on population growth13,14,22,26. For Caprinae, when adult female survivorship is 0.90 and recruitment 0.30, the elasticity in survivorship and recruitment are 0.61 (90% CIs 0.40–0.75) and 0.24 (90% CIs 0.13–0.40) respectively (elasticity in young adult survivorship is 0.16 (90% CIs 0.12–0.21). For ungulates in general, the elasticity values for survival tend to be higher than those for recruitment27. Our results match this pattern, as the elasticity results indicate that a change in adult survival has a 2.5 times greater effect on λ than an equivalent change in recruitment. Relatedly, other theoretical work reports that demographic parameters with more temporal variability have lower elasticities, indicating less impact on population fitness (e.g.28,29).Our work centers on applications. Since most management actions affect these demographic parameters simultaneously, at issue is the practicality (e.g. feasibility and affordability) of management to increase these parameters, and understanding how such changes could impact λ. For example, imagine a population with mean recruitment of 0.30 and adult survival 0.85, with a biologist interested in increasing recruitment or adult female survival to acquire λ ≥ 1. The answer is to increase either value by 0.02 (Fig. 1, Supplementary Data S1). Similarly, one can set a λ target and determine the amount of recruitment and adult female survival necessary for acquiring it (Fig. 1, Supplementary Data S1).Minimum abundance targetA minimum population of 50 adult females meets the persistence criteria, given intermediate levels of recruitment and survival producing λ ~ 1 (Table 2). The risk of population collapse wanes as populations increase above the minimum threshold (Table 2; Fig. 1). For example, a population of ~ 100 adult females always meets persistence criteria (Table 2). Populations of adult females should be somewhat larger than 50 when modest declines (λ ~ 0.97) are suspected, providing a cushion to address the causes of decline, and mitigate further reductions.Translocation of 5 adult females during each of 5 years, or 10 in each of 3 years, requires a starting abundance of 70 adult females for the population to maintain the persistence criteria, never reach a lower confidence interval of 0, and for the population to return to the starting population size within 30 years. If managers mistakenly target a population having  More

Nuclear weapons obliterate targets. The soot ejected into the stratosphere spreads, changing global weather patterns. When weapons are especially high yielding, the resultant soot could trigger global famine.About 66 million years ago, roughly three-quarters of all species on Earth died when a 10–15-km-diameter asteroid travelling at 72,000 km h−1 struck at Chicxulub, Mexico1. Sulfates and soot lofted high in the atmosphere, cutting off sunlight. The Earth cooled, weather changed and primary productivity crashed. While the best-known victims of the asteroid impact were dinosaurs, the resultant food scarcity impacted the entire Earth; those not affected immediately by the impact eventually died from starvation. Any mechanism that can loft massive quantities of aerosols high into the atmosphere, such as massive volcanic explosions2 or nuclear wars3, can interfere with the weather globally and change world food security. More

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