Philippa Kaur

Wheat production and yield vis-à-vis climate trendsWheat is currently grown in all six continents except Antarctica. The leading producers include China, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Kazakhstan (RUK), India, USA, France, Canada, Pakistan, Germany, Argentina, Turkey, Australia, and United Kingdom (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Table 1). The total grain production of these twelve countries is estimated at 600 megatons (2019 data), which accounts for over 78% of the global wheat production. The top three producers are China with 133.6 megatons per year (Mt y−1), RUK with 114.1 Mt y−1, and India with 103.6 Mt y−1. RUK contains the largest harvested area of 45.8 million hectares, followed by India with 29.3 million hectares and China with 23.7 million hectares (Fig. 1A). Despite a relatively small harvested area of 10.1 million hectares (only 22% of RUK’s harvested area), the United Kingdom, France, and Germany account for the world’s highest yields per hectare, with 8.93 tons ha−1, 7.74 tons ha−1, and 7.40 tons ha−1, respectively (compared with the world’s average yield of only 3.2 tons ha−1), accounting for a total yearly production of 79.9 Mt y−1.Figure 1Global wheat area and trends in wheat yield and climate in top-twelve global wheat producers (1961–2019). (A) Worldwide wheat cropping area (%)29, total harvested area (106 hectares in 2019), and wheat production (megatons for 2019) of the top 12 global wheat producers (China, RUK—Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, India, USA—hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS), France, Canada, Pakistan, Germany, Argentina, Turkey, Australia, and United Kingdom) (Map was generated in Python 3.8.5; http://www.python.org). (B) Changes in wheat yield (tons per hectare) and (C) climate—mean daily temperature (red dashed line; °C) and the seasonal water balance represented as potential evaporation minus precipitation (blue line; PET—P in millimeters of H2O). A positive trend in PET-P indicates an increase in water deficit. The seasonal atmospheric [CO2] in μmol CO2 per mol−1 air is also shown in the insert of C (black line). Temperature, PET-P, and [CO2] shown in C are averaged values over the wheat-growing period and the shared area of the wheat-growing areas of the top 12 global wheat producers. Decadal trends in temperature (red) and PET-P (blue) as well as the significance levels of these trends are presented in C.Full size imageWhile all these twelve major wheat producers saw an increase in yield during the last six decades (Fig. 1B), China displayed the most noteworthy increase with a nearly sevenfold higher yield in 2019 than in 1961 and a mean total increase of 5.19 tons ha−1 for the period of 1961–2019. Germany, the UK, and France reported comparable yield increases of 5.20 tons ha−1, 5.19 tons ha−1, and 4.81 tons ha−1, respectively, during this period, suggesting an approximately 1.6-fold improvement since 1961 (Fig. 1B). Australia, RUK, and Turkey reported the lowest gains with only 0.87 tons ha−1, 1.26 tons ha−1, and 1.71 tons ha−1, respectively, representing improvements of 67%, 150%, and 175% in yield per hectare since 1961.Yield increase occurred despite the steep rise in temperature (nearly 1.2 °C) in the twelve countries during the last six decades (Fig. 1C). Water deficit—calculated as the difference between potential evaporative demand and precipitation (PET—P; mm H2O y−1)—also increased by an average of (sim) 29 mm of H2O for the same period. Increases in yield since the early 1960s were likely due to breeding and agrotechnological advances, improved management, and a steep rise in atmospheric [CO2] of (sim) 98 μmol mol−1, from 315.9 μmol mol−1 in 1961 to 413.4 μmol mol−1 in 2019 (insert in Fig. 1C).Unraveling the impacts of climate and [CO2] on yieldBased on previous studies30,31, we used a log-linear model to quantify the impact of [CO2] and daily minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax), and mean (Tmean) temperatures, as well as seasonal water deficit (PET-P), and rainfall distribution on wheat yield. Climate variables were obtained from the TerraClimate data set32, while monthly records of [CO2] from the Mauna Loa station were used to model the effects of CO2 (see “Methods”). To quantify wheat yield as a function of climate variables and [CO2], we included all 12 countries in the regression analysis. Supplementary Table 2 presents summary statistics of all variables, while Supplementary Fig. 1 depicts trends in Tmean and PET-P per country.Since climate variables tend to be correlated over time (Supplementary Table 3), controlling for all of these variables in the model facilitates the estimation of their distinct effect on yield. We used country-specific trends to distinguish changes in wheat yield related to climate and [CO2] from those attributed to agrotechnological advancements, changes in country-specific policies, and other local-changing factors (e.g., economic and population growth; more information on how this was done can be found in “Methods”). We also included country-specific effects across all models to account for unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity at the country level, such as geographical properties, edaphic characteristics, and other local-specific features (see “Methods”).Table 1 reports the estimated regression coefficients of four models, (1) using only temperature variables (T), (2) temperature and water-related (i.e., seasonal rainfall distribution and water deficit as PET-P) variables (T + W), (3) including [CO2] (T + W + C), and (4) the interaction between [CO2] and climate variables (T + W + C + interactions).Table 1 Effects of climate variables and [CO2] on log wheat yields of the world’s major wheat producers.Full size tableAmong the temperature measures, only Tmean had a consistently significant effect on yield (p  More

Literature studyLiterature considering the effect of pasture degradation on SOC, N, and clay content, as well as bulk density (BD), was assembled by searching (i) Web of Science V.5.22.1, (ii) ScienceDirect (Elsevier B.V.) (iii) Google Scholar, and (iv) the China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database (CNKI). Search terms were “degradation gradient”, “degradation stages”, “alpine meadow”, “Tibetan Plateau”, “soil”, “soil organic carbon”, and “soil organic matter” in different combinations. The criteria for including a study in the analysis were: (i) a clear and comprehensible classification of degradation stages was presented, (ii) data on SOC, N, and/or BD were reported, (iii) a non-degraded pasture site was included as a reference to enable an effect size analysis and the calculation of SOC and N losses, (iv) sampling depths and study location were clearly presented. (v) Studies were only considered that took samples in 10 cm depth intervals, to maintain comparability to the analyses from our own study site. The degradation stages in the literature studies were regrouped into the six successive stages (S0–S5) according to the respective degradation descriptions. In total, we compiled the results of 49 publications published between 2002 and 2020.When SOM content was presented, this was converted to SOC content using a conversion factor of 2.032. SOC and N stocks were calculated using the following equation:$${{{{{rm{Elemental; stock}}}}}}=100* {{{{{rm{content}}}}}}* {{{{{rm{BD}}}}}}* {{{{{rm{depth}}}}}}$$
(1)
where elemental stock is SOC or N stock [kg ha−1]; content is SOC or N content [g kg−1]; BD is soil bulk density [g cm−3] and depth is the soil sampling depth [cm].The effect sizes of individual variables (i.e., SOC and N stocks as well as BD) were quantified as follows:$${{{{{rm{ES}}}}}}=,frac{(D-R)}{R* 100 % }$$
(2)
where ES is the effect size in %, D is the value of the corresponding variable in the relevant degradation stage and R is the value of each variable in the non-degraded stage (reference site). When ES is positive, zero, or negative, this indicates an increase, no change, or decrease, respectively, of the parameter compared to the non-degraded stage.Experimental design of the field studyLarge areas in the study region are impacted by grassland degradation. In total, 45% of the surface area of the Kobresia pasture ecosystem on the TP is already degraded2. The experiment was designed to differentiate and quantify SOC losses by erosion vs. net decomposition and identify underlying shifts in microbial community composition and link these to changes in key microbial functions in the soil C cycle. We categorized the range of Kobresia root-mat degradation from non-degraded to bare soils into six successive degradation stages (S0–S5). Stage S0 represented non-degraded root mats, while stages S1–S4 represented increasing degrees of surface cracks, and bare soil patches without root mats defined stage S5 (Supplementary Fig. 1). All six degradation stages were selected within an area of about 4 ha to ensure equal environmental conditions and each stage was sampled in four field replicates. However, the studied degradation patterns are common for the entire Kobresia ecosystem (Supplementary Fig. 1).Site descriptionThe field study was conducted near Nagqu (Tibet, China) in the late summer 2013 and 2015. The study site of about 4 ha (NW: 31.274748°N, 92.108963°E; NE: 31.274995°N, 92.111482°E; SW: 31.273488°N, 92.108906°E; SE: 31.273421°N, 92.112025°E) was located on gentle slopes (2–5%) at 4,484 m a.s.l. in the core area of the Kobresia pygmaea ecosystem according to Miehe et al.8. The vegetation consists mainly of K. pygmaea, which covers up to 61% of the surface. Other grasses, sedges, or dwarf rosette plants (Carex ivanoviae, Carex spp., Festuca spp., Kobresia pusilla, Poa spp., Stipa purpurea, Trisetum spp.) rarely cover more than 40%. The growing season is strongly restricted by temperature and water availability. At most, it lasts from mid-May to mid-September, but varies strongly depending on the onset and duration of the summer monsoon. Mean annual precipitation is 431 mm, with roughly 80% falling as summer rains. The mean annual temperature is −1.2 °C, while the mean maximum temperature of the warmest month (July) is +9.0 °C2.A characteristic feature of Kobresia pastures is their very compact root mats, with an average thickness of 15 cm at the study site. These consist mainly of living and dead K. pygmaea roots and rhizomes, leaf bases, large amounts of plant residue, and mineral particles. Intact soil is a Stagnic Eutric Cambisol (Humic), developed on a loess layer overlying glacial sediments and containing 50% sand, 33% silt, and 17% clay in the topsoil (0–25 cm). The topsoil is free of carbonates and is of neutral pH (pH in H2O: 6.8)5. Total soil depth was on average 35 cm.The site is used as a winter pasture for yaks, sheep, and goats from January to April. Besides livestock, large numbers of plateau pikas (Ochotona) are found on the sites. These animals have a considerable impact on the plant cover through their burrowing activity, in particular the soil thrown out of their burrows, which can cover and destroy the Kobresia turf.Sampling designThe vertical and horizontal extent of the surface cracks was measured for each plot (Supplementary Table 2). Vegetation cover was measured and the aboveground biomass was collected in the cracks (Supplementary Table 2). In general, intact Kobresia turf (S0) provided high resistance to penetration as measured by a penetrologger (Eijkelkamp Soil and Water, Giesbeek, NL) in 1 cm increments and four replicates per plot.Soil sampling was conducted using soil pits (30 cm length × 30 cm width × 40 cm depth). Horizons were classified and then soil and roots were sampled for each horizon directly below the cracks. Bulk density and root biomass were determined in undisturbed soil samples, using soil cores (10 cm height and 10 cm diameter). Living roots were separated from dead roots and root debris by their bright color and soft texture using tweezers under magnification, and the roots were subsequently washed with distilled water to remove the remaining soil. Because over 95% of the roots occurred in the upper 25 cm5, we did not sample for root biomass below this depth.Additional soil samples were taken from each horizon for further analysis. Microbial community and functional characterization were performed on samples from the same pits but with a fixed depth classification (0–5 cm, 5–15 cm, 15–35 cm) to reduce the number of samples.Plant and soil analysesSoil and roots were separated by sieving (2 mm) and the roots subsequently washed with distilled water. Bulk density and root density were determined by dividing the dry soil mass (dried at 105 °C for 24 h) and the dry root biomass (60 °C) by the volume of the sampling core. To reflect the root biomass, root density was expressed per soil volume (mg cm−3). Soil and root samples were milled for subsequent analysis.Elemental concentrations and SOC characteristicsTotal SOC and total N contents and stable isotope signatures (δ13C and δ15N) were analyzed using an isotope ratio mass spectrometer (Delta plus, Conflo III, Thermo Electron Cooperation, Bremen, Germany) coupled to an elemental analyzer (NA 1500, Fisons Instruments, Milano, Italy). Measurements were conducted at the Centre for Stable Isotope Research and Analysis (KOSI) of the University of Göttingen. The δ13C and δ15N values were calculated by relating the isotope ratio of each sample (Rsample = 13C/12C or 15N/14N) to the international standards (Pee Dee Belemnite 13C/12C ratio for δ13C; the atmospheric 15N/14N composition for δ15N).Soil pH of air-dried soil was measured potentiometrically at a ratio (v/v) of 1.0:2.5 in distilled water.Lignin phenols were depolymerized using the CuO oxidation method25 and analyzed with a gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC–MS) system (GC 7820 A, MS 5977B, Agilent Technologies, Waldbronn, Germany). Vanillyl and syringyl units were calculated from the corresponding aldehydes, ketones, and carboxylic acids. Cinnamyl units were derived from the sum of p-coumaric acid and ferulic acid. The sum of the three structural units (VSC = V + S + C) was considered to reflect the lignin phenol content in a sample.DNA extraction and PCRSamples were directly frozen on site at −20 °C and transported to Germany for analysis of microbial community structure. Total DNA was extracted from the soil samples with the PowerSoil DNA isolation kit (MoBio Laboratories Inc., Carlsbad, CA, USA) according to the manufacturer’s instructions, and DNA concentration was determined using a NanoDrop 1000 spectrophotometer (Thermo Fisher Scientific, Wilmington, DE, USA). The extracted DNA was amplified with forward and reverse primer sets suitable for either t-RFLP (fluorescence marked, FAM) or Illumina MiSeq sequencing (Illumina Inc., San Diego, USA): V3 (5’-CCT ACG GGN GGC WGC AG-3’) and V4 (5’-GAC TAC HVG GGT ATC TAA TCC-3’) primers were used for bacterial 16 S rRNA genes whereas ITS1 (5’-CTT GGT CAT TTA GAG GAA GTA A-3’), ITS1-F_KYO1 (5’-CTH GGT CAT TTA GAG GAA STA A-3’), ITS2 (5’-GCT GCG TTC TTC ATC GAT GC-3’) and ITS4 (5’-TCC TCC GCT TAT TGA TAT GC-3’) were used for fungi33,34. Primers for Illumina MiSeq sequencing included adaptor sequences (forward: 5’-TCG TCG GCA GCG TCA GAT GTG TAT AAG AGA CAG-3’; reverse: 5’-GTC TCG TGG GCT CGG AGA TGT GTA TAA GAG ACA G-3’)33. PCR was performed with the Phusion High-Fidelity PCR kit (New England Biolabs Inc., Ipswich, MA, USA) creating a 50 µl master mix with 28.8 µl H2Omolec, 2.5 µl DMSO, 10 µl Phusion GC buffer, 1 µl of forward and reverse primer, 0.2 µl MgCl2, 1 µl dNTPs, 0.5 µl Phusion HF DNA Polymerase, and 5 µl template DNA. PCR temperatures started with initial denaturation at 98 °C for 1 min, followed by denaturation (98 °C, 45 s), annealing (48/60 °C, 45 s), and extension (72 °C, 30 s). These steps were repeated 25 times, finalized again with a final extension (72 °C, 5 min), and cooling to 10 °C. Agarose gel electrophoresis was used to assess the success of the PCR and the amount of amplified DNA (0.8% gel:1.0 g Rotigarose, 5 µl Roti-Safe Gelstain, Carl Roth GmbH & Co. KG, Karlsruhe, Germany; and 100 ml 1× TAE-buffer). PCR product was purified after initial PCR and restriction digestion (t-RFLP) with either NucleoMag 96 PCR (16 S rRNA gene amplicons, Macherey-Nagel GmbH & Co. KG, Düren, Germany) or a modified clean-up protocol after Moreau (t-RFLP)35: 3× the volume of the reaction solution as 100% ethanol and ¼x vol. 125 mM EDTA was added and mixed by inversion or vortex. After incubation at room temperature for 15 min, the product was centrifuged at 25,000 × g for 30 min at 4 °C. Afterwards the supernatant was removed, and the inverted 96-well plate was centrifuged shortly for 2 min. Seventy microliters ethanol (70%) were added and centrifuged at 25,000 × g for 30 min at 4 °C. Again, the supernatant was removed, and the pallet was dried at room temperature for 30 min. Finally, the ethanol-free pallet was resuspended in H2Omolec.T-RFLP fingerprintingThe purified fluorescence-labeled PCR products were digested with three different restriction enzymes (MspI and BstUI, HaeIII) according to the manufacturer’s guidelines (New England Biolabs Inc., Ipswich, MA, USA) with a 20 µl master mix: 16.75 µl H2Omolec, 2 µl CutSmart buffer, 0.25 or 0.5 µl restriction enzyme, and 1 µl PCR product for 15 min at 37 °C (MspI) and 60 °C (BstUI, HaeIII), respectively. The digested PCR product was purified a second time35, dissolved in Super-DI Formamide (MCLAB, San Francisco, CA, USA) and, along with Red DNA size standard (MCLAB, San Francisco, USA), analyzed in an ABI Prism 3130 Genetic Analyzer (Applied Biosystems, Carlsbad, CA, USA). Terminal restriction fragments shorter than 50 bp and longer than 800 bp were removed from the t-RFLP fingerprints.16 S rRNA gene and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequencing and sequence processingThe 16 S rRNA gene and ITS paired-end raw reads for the bacterial and fungal community analyses were deposited in the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) Sequence Read Archive (SRA) and can be found under the BioProject accession number PRJNA626504. This BioProject contains 70 samples and 139 SRA experiments (SRR11570615–SRR11570753) which were processed using CASAVA software (Illumina, San Diego, CA, USA) for demultiplexing of MiSeq raw sequences (2 × 300 bp, MiSeq Reagent Kit v3).Paired-end sequences were quality-filtered with fastp (version 0.19.4)36 using default settings with the addition of an increased per base phred score of 20, base-pair corrections by overlap (-c), as well as 5′- and 3′-end read trimming with a sliding window of 4, a mean quality of 20 and minimum sequence size of 50 bp. Paired-end sequences were merged using PEAR v0.9.1137 with default parameters. Subsequently, unclipped reverse and forward primer sequences were removed with cutadapt v1.1838 with default settings. Sequences were then processed using VSEARCH (v2.9.1)39. This included sorting and size-filtering (—sortbylength,—minseqlength) of the paired reads to ≥300 bp for bacteria and ≥140 bp for ITS1, dereplication (—derep_fulllength). Dereplicated sequences were denoised with UNOISE340 using default settings (—cluster_unoise—minsize 8) and chimeras were removed (—uchime3_denovo). An additional reference-based chimera removal was performed (—uchime_ref) against the SILVA41 SSU NR database (v132) and UNITE42 database (v7.2) resulting in the final set of amplicon sequence variants (ASVs)43. Quality-filtered and merged reads were mapped to ASVs (—usearch_global–id 0.97). Classification of ASVs was performed with BLAST 2.7.1+ against the SILVA SSU NR (v132) and UNITE (v7.2) database with an identity of at least 90%. The ITS sequences contained unidentified fungal ASVs after UNITE classification, these sequences were checked (blastn)44 against the “nt” database (Nov 2018) to remove non-fungal ASVs and only as fungi classified reads were kept. Sample comparisons were performed at the same surveying effort, utilizing the lowest number of sequences by random selection (total 15,800 bacteria, 20,500 fungi). Species richness, alpha and beta diversity estimates, and rarefaction curves were determined using the QIIME 1.9.145 script alpha_rarefaction.py.The final ASV tables were used to compute heatmaps showing the effect of degradation on the community using R (Version 3.6.1, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) and R packages “gplots”, “vegan”, “permute” and “RColorBrewer”. Fungal community functions were obtained from the FunGuild database46. Plant mycorrhizal association types were compiled from the literature38,39,40,41,47,48,49,50. If no direct species match was available, the mycorrhizal association was assumed to remain constant within the same genus.Enzyme activityEnzyme activity was measured to characterize the functional activity of the soil microorganisms. The following extracellular enzymes, involved in C, N, and P transformations, were considered: two hydrolases (β-glucosidase and xylanase), phenoloxidase, urease, and alkaline phosphatase. Enzyme activities were measured directly at the sampling site according to protocols after Schinner et al.51. Beta-glucosidase was incubated with saligenin for 3 h at 37 °C, xylanase with glucose for 24 h at 50 °C, phenoloxidase with L-3,4-dihydroxy phenylalanine (DOPA) for 1 h at 25 °C, urease with urea for 2 h at 37 °C and alkaline phosphatase on P-nitrophenyl phosphate for 1 h at 37 °C. Reaction products were measured photometrically at recommended wavelengths (578, 690, 475, 660, and 400 nm, respectively).SOC stocks and SOC lossThe SOC stocks (in kg C m−2) for the upper 30 cm were determined by multiplying the SOC content (g C kg−1) by the BD (g cm−3) and the thickness of the soil horizons (m). SOC losses (%) were calculated for each degradation stage and horizon and were related to the mean C stock of the reference stage (S0). The erosion-induced SOC loss of the upper horizon was estimated by considering the topsoil removal (extent of vertical soil cracks) of all degraded soil profiles (S1–S5) and the SOC content and BD of the reference (S0). To calculate the mineralization-derived SOC loss, we accounted for the effects of SOC and root mineralization on both SOC content and BD. Thus, we used the SOC content and BD from each degradation stage (S1–S5) and multiplied it by the mean thickness of each horizon (down to 30 cm) from the reference site (S0). The disentanglement of erosion-derived SOC loss from mineralization-derived SOC loss was based on explicit assumptions that (i) erosion-derived SOC losses are mainly associated with losses from the topsoil, and (ii) the decreasing SOC contents in the erosion-unaffected horizons were mainly driven by mineralization and decreasing root C input.Statistical analysesStatistical analyses were performed using PASW Statistics (IBM SPSS Statistics) and R software (Version 3.6.1). Soil and plant characteristics are presented as means and standard errors (means ± SE). The significance of treatment effects (S0–S5) and depth was tested by one-way ANOVA at p  More

Study siteWe conducted this research at the Uluwatu temple site in Bali, Indonesia. Uluwatu is located on the Island’s southern coast, in the Badung Regency. The temple at Uluwatu is a Pura Luhur, which is a significant temple for Balinese Hindus across the island and is therefore visited regularly for significant regional, community, family, and household rituals by Balinese people from different regions throughout the year18. During the period of data collection hundreds of tourists also visit the Uluwatu temple each day. The temple sits on top of a promontory cliff edge, with walking paths in front of it that continue in loops to the North and South. These looping pathways surround scrub forests, which the macaques frequently inhabit but the humans rarely enter.In 2017–2018 there were five macaque groups at Uluwatu, which ranged throughout the temple complex area, and beyond. All groups are provisioned daily with a mixed diet of corn, cucumbers, and bananas by temple staff members. The two groups included in this research are the Celagi and Riting groups. We selected these groups because they previously exhibited significant differences in robbing frequencies whereby Riting was observed exhibiting robbing and bartering more frequently than Celagi1. Furthermore, both groups include the same highly trafficked tourist areas in their overlapping home ranges relative to the other groups at Uluwatu, theoretically minimizing between group differences in the contexts of human interaction1,19.Data collectionJVP collected data from May, 2017 to March, 2018 totaling 197 focal observation hours on all 13 subadult males in Celagi and Riting that were identified in May–June 2017. Subadult male long-tailed macaques exhibit characteristic patterns of incomplete canine eruption, sex organ development, and body size growth, which achieves a maximum of 80% of total adult size18. Mean sampling effort per individual was 15.2 hours (h), with a range of 1.75 h, totaling 102.75 h for Riting and 94.75 h for Celagi. The data collection protocol consisted of focal-animal sampling and instantaneous scan sampling20 on all six subadult males in the Celagi group, and all seven subadult males in the Riting group. Focal follows were 15 minutes in length. Sampling effort per individual is presented in Table 1. A random number generator determined the order of focal follows each morning. In the event a target focal animal could not be located within 10 minutes of locating the group, the next in line was located and observed. Data presented here come from focal animal sampling records of state and event behaviors. Relevant event behaviors consist of agonistic gestures used for calculating dominance relationships, including the target, or interaction partner, of all communicative event behaviors and the time of its occurrence. All changes in the focal animal’s state behavior were noted, recording the time of the change to the minute.Table 1 Focal Subadult male long-tailed macaques in Celagi and Riting at Uluwatu, Bali, Indonesia.Full size tableDuring focal samples we recorded robbing and bartering as a sequence of mixed event and state behaviors. We scored both the robbery and exchange phases as event behaviors, and the interim phase of item possession as a state behavior. We record a robbery as successful if the focal animal took an object from a human and established control of the object with their hands or teeth, and as unsuccessful if the focal animal touched the object but was not able to establish control of it. For each successful robbery we recorded the object taken. Unsuccessful robberies end the sequence, whereas successful robberies are typically followed by various forms of manipulating the object.The robbing and bartering sequence ends with one of several event behavior exchange outcomes: (1) “Successful exchanges” consist of the focal animal receiving a food reward from a human and releasing the stolen object; (2) “forced exchanges” are when a human takes the object back without a bartering event; (3) “dropped objects” describe when the macaque loses control of the object while carrying it or otherwise locomoting, and is akin to an “accidental drop”; (4) “no exchange” includes instances of the macaque releasing the object for no reward after manipulating it; and (5) “expired observation” consists of instances in which the final result of the robbing and bartering event was unobserved in the sample period (i.e., the sample period ended while the macaque still had possession of the object). A 6th exchange outcome is “rejected exchange,” which occurs when the focal animal does not drop the stolen object after being offered, or in some cases even accepting, a food reward. The “rejected exchange” outcome is unique in that it does not end the robbing and bartering sequence because a human may have one or more exchange attempts rejected before eventually facilitating a successful exchange, or before one of the other outcomes (2–5) occurs. For each successful exchange we recorded the food item the macaques received. Food items are grouped into four categories: fruits, peanuts, eggs, and human snacks. Snacks include packaged and processed food items such as candy or chips.Data analysisWe grouped the broad range of stolen items into classes of general types. “Eyewear” combines eyeglasses and sunglasses, while “footwear” combines sandals and shoes. “Ornaments” includes objects attached to and/or hanging from backpacks, such as keychains, while “accessories” includes decorative objects attached to an individual’s body or clothing like bracelets and hair ties. “Electronics” covers cellular phones and tablets. “Hats” encompasses removable forms of headwear, most typically represented by baseball-style hats or sun hats. “Plastics” is an item class consisting of lighters and bottles, which may be filled with water, soda, or juice. The “unidentified” category is used for stolen items which could not be clearly observed during or after the robbing and bartering sequence.“Robbery attempts” refers to the combined total number of successful and unsuccessful robberies. “Robbery efficiency” is a novel metric referring to the number of successful robberies divided by the total number of robbery attempts. The “Exchange Outcome Index” is calculated by dividing the number of successful exchanges by the total number of robbery attempts. We make this calculation using robbery attempts instead of successful robberies to account for total robbery effort because failed robberies still factor into an individual’s total energy expenditure toward receiving a bartered food reward and their total exposure to the risks (e.g., physical retaliation) of stealing from humans relative to achieving the desired end result of a food reward.Social rank was measured with David’s Score, calculated using dyadic agonistic interactions. We coded “winners” of contests as those who exhibited the agonistic behavior, while “losers” were the recipients of those agonistic behaviors21,22. We excluded intergroup agonistic interactions in our calculations of David’s Score.To account for potential variation in the overall patterns of interaction with humans between groups we calculated a Human Interaction Rate, which is the sum of human-directed interactions from focal animals in each group divided by the total number of observation hours on focal animals in that group.Statistical analysisWe ran statistical tests in SYSTAT software with a significance level set at 0.05. We used chi-square goodness-of-fit tests to assess the significance of differences in successful robberies between individuals for each group. To avoid having cells with values of zero, two focal subjects, Minion and Spot from Celagi, are excluded from this test because neither were observed making a successful robbery during the observation period. We also used chi-square goodness-of-fit tests to assess exchange outcome occurrences within each group, as well as a Fisher’s exact to test for significant differences in robbery outcomes between groups due to low expected counts in 40% of the cells. “Rejected exchange” events were not included in the analysis of robbery outcomes because they do not end the sequence and are therefore not mutually exclusive with the other robbery outcomes.We further tested for the effect of dominance position on robbery outcomes. Due to our small sample size and the preliminary nature of this investigation, we used Spearman correlations to assess the relationship between subadult male dominance position via David’s Score and (1) robbing efficiency and (2) the Exchange Outcome Index.Compliance with ethical standardsThis research complied with the standards and protocols for observational fieldwork with nonhuman primates and was approved by the University of Notre Dame Compliance IACUC board (protocol ID: 16-02-2932), where JVP and AF were affiliated at the time of this research. This study did not involve human subjects. This research further received a research permit from RISTEK in Indonesia (permit number: 2C21EB0881-R), and complied with local laws and customary practices in Bali. More

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Spillover events, in which a pathogen that originates in animals jumps into people, have probably triggered every viral pandemic that’s occurred since the start of the twentieth century1. What’s more, an August 2021 analysis of disease outbreaks over the past four centuries indicates that the yearly probability of pandemics could increase several-fold in the coming decades, largely because of human-induced environmental changes2.Fortunately, for around US$20 billion per year, the likelihood of spillover could be greatly reduced3. This is the amount needed to halve global deforestation in hotspots for emerging infectious diseases; drastically curtail and regulate trade in wildlife; and greatly improve the ability to detect and control infectious diseases in farmed animals.That is a small investment compared with the millions of lives lost and trillions of dollars spent in the COVID-19 pandemic. The cost is also one-twentieth of the statistical value of the lives lost each year to viral diseases that have spilled over from animals since 1918 (see ‘Spillovers: a growing threat’), and less than one-tenth of the economic productivity erased per year1.

Source: Ref. 1

Yet many of the international efforts to better defend the world from future outbreaks, prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic, still fail to prioritize the prevention of spillover. Take, for example, the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, established by the World Health Organization (WHO). The panel was convened in September 2020, in part to ensure that any future infectious-disease outbreak does not become another pandemic. In its 86-page report released last May, wildlife is mentioned twice; deforestation once.We urge the decision-makers currently developing three landmark international endeavours to make the prevention of spillover central to each.First, the G20 group of the world’s 20 largest economies provisionally agreed last month to create a global fund for pandemics. If realized, this could provide funding at levels that infectious-disease experts have been recommending for decades — around $5 per person per year globally (see go.nature.com/3yjitwx). Second, an agreement to improve global approaches to pandemics is under discussion by the World Health Assembly (WHA), the decision-making body of the WHO. Third, a draft framework for biodiversity conservation — the post-2020 global biodiversity framework — is being negotiated by parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity.Designed in the right way, these three international endeavours could foster a more proactive global approach to infectious diseases. This opportunity — to finally address the factors that drive major disease outbreaks, many of which also contribute to climate change and biodiversity loss — might not present itself again until the world faces another pandemic.Four actions The risk of spillover is greater when there are more opportunities for animals and humans to make contact, for instance in the trade of wildlife, in animal farming or when forests are cleared for mining, farming or roads. It is also more likely to happen under conditions that increase the likelihood of infected animals shedding viruses – when they are housed in cramped conditions, say, or not fed properly.Decades of research from epidemiology, ecology and genetics suggest that an effective global strategy to reduce the risk of spillover should focus on four actions1,3.First, tropical and subtropical forests must be protected. Various studies show that changes in the way land is used, particularly tropical and subtropical forests, might be the largest driver of emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin globally4. Wildlife that survives forest clearance or degradation tends to include species that can live alongside people, and that often host pathogens capable of infecting humans5. For example, in Bangladesh, bats that carry Nipah virus — which can kill 40–75% of people infected — now roost in areas of high human population density because their forest habitat has been almost entirely cleared6.Furthermore, the loss of forests is driving climate change. This could in itself aid spillover by pushing animals, such as bats, out of regions that have become inhospitable and into areas where many people live7.Yet forests can be protected even while agricultural productivity is increased — as long as there is enough political will and resources8. This was demonstrated by the 70% reduction in deforestation in the Amazon during 2004–12, largely through better monitoring, law enforcement and the provision of financial incentives to farmers. (Deforestation rates began increasing in 2013 due to changes in environmental legislation, and have risen sharply since 2019 during Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency.)Second, commercial markets and trade of live wild animals that pose a public-health risk must be banned or strictly regulated, both domestically and internationally.Doing this would be consistent with the call made by the WHO and other organizations in 2021 for countries to temporarily suspend the trade in live caught wild mammals, and to close sections of markets selling such animals. Several countries have already acted along these lines. In China, the trade and consumption of most terrestrial wildlife has been banned in response to COVID-19. Similarly, Gabon has prohibited the sale of certain mammal species as food in markets.

A worker in a crowded chicken farm in Anhui province, China.Credit: Jianan Yu/Reuters

Restrictions on urban and peri-urban commercial markets and trade must not infringe on the rights and needs of Indigenous peoples and local communities, who often rely on wildlife for food security, livelihoods and cultural practices. There are already different rules for hunting depending on the community in many countries, including Brazil, Canada and the United States.Third, biosecurity must be improved when dealing with farmed animals. Among other measures, this could be achieved through better veterinary care, enhanced surveillance for animal disease, improvements to feeding and housing animals, and quarantines to limit pathogen spread.Poor health among farmed animals increases their risk of becoming infected with pathogens — and of spreading them. And nearly 80% of livestock pathogens can infect multiple host species, including wildlife and humans9.Fourth, particularly in hotspots for the emergence of infectious diseases, people’s health and economic security should be improved.People in poor health — such as those who have malnutrition or uncontrolled HIV infection — can be more susceptible to zoonotic pathogens. And, particularly in immunosuppressed individuals such as these, pathogens can mutate before being passed on to others10.What’s more, some communities — especially those in rural areas — use natural resources to produce commodities or generate income in a way that brings them into contact with wildlife or wildlife by-products. In Bangladesh, for example, date palm sap, which is consumed as a drink in various forms, is often collected in pots attached to palm trees. These can become contaminated with bodily substances from bats. A 2016 investigation linked this practice to 14 Nipah virus infections in humans that caused 8 deaths11.Providing communities with both education and tools to reduce the risk of harm is crucial. Tools can be something as simple as pot covers to prevent contamination of date palm sap, in the case of the Bangladesh example.In fact, providing educational opportunities alongside health-care services and training in alternative livelihood skills, such as organic agriculture, can help both people and the environment. For instance, the non-governmental organization Health in Harmony in Portland, Oregon, has invested in community-designed interventions in Indonesian Borneo. During 2007–17, these contributed to a 90% reduction in the number of households that were reliant on illegal logging for their main livelihood. This, in turn, reduced local rainforest loss by 70%. Infant mortality also fell by 67% in the programme’s catchment area12.Systems-oriented interventions of this type need to be better understood, and the most effective ones scaled up.Wise investmentSuch strategies to prevent spillover would reduce our dependence on containment measures, such as human disease surveillance, contact tracing, lockdowns, vaccines and therapeutics. These interventions are crucial, but are often expensive and implemented too late — in short, they are insufficient when used alone to deal with emerging infectious diseases.The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the real-world limitations of these reactive measures — particularly in an age of disinformation and rising populism. For example, despite the US federal government spending more than $3.7 trillion on its pandemic response as of the end of March, nearly one million people in the United States — or around one in 330 — have died from COVID-19 (see go.nature.com/39jtdfh and go.nature.com/38urqvc). Globally, between 15 million and 21 million lives are estimated to have been lost during the COVID-19 pandemic beyond what would be expected under non-pandemic conditions (known as excess deaths; see Nature https://doi.org/htd6; 2022). And a 2021 model indicates that, by 2025, $157 billion will have been spent on COVID-19 vaccines alone (see go.nature.com/3jqds76).

A farmer in Myanmar gathers sap from a palm tree to make wine. Contamination of the collection pots with excretions from bats can spread diseases to humans.Credit: Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty

Preventing spillover also protects people, domesticated animals and wildlife in the places that can least afford harm — making it more equitable than containment. For example, almost 18 months since COVID-19 vaccines first became publicly available, only 21% of the total population of Africa has received at least one dose. In the United States and Canada, the figure is nearly 80% (see go.nature.com/3vrdpfo). Meanwhile, Pfizer’s total drug sales rose from $43 billion in 2020 to $72 billion in 2021, largely because of the company’s COVID-19 vaccine, the best-selling drug of 202113.Lastly, unlike containment measures, actions to prevent spillover also help to stop spillback, in which zoonotic pathogens move back from humans to animals and then jump again into people. Selection pressures can differ across species, making such jumps a potential source of new variants that can evade existing immunity. Some researchers have suggested that spillback was possibly responsible for the emergence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 (see Nature 602, 26–28; 2022).Seize the dayOver the past year, the administration of US President Joe Biden and two international panels (one established in 2020 by the WHO and the other in 2021 by the G20) have released guidance on how to improve approaches to pandemics. All recommendations released so far acknowledge spillover as the predominant cause of emerging infectious diseases. None adequately discusses how that risk might be mitigated. Likewise, a PubMed search for the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 yields thousands of papers, yet only a handful of studies investigate coronavirus dynamics in bats, from which SARS-CoV-2 is likely to have originated14.Spillover prevention is probably being overlooked for several reasons. Upstream animal and environmental sources of pathogens might be being neglected by biomedical researchers and their funders because they are part of complex systems — research into which does not tend to lead to tangible, profitable outputs. Also, most people working in public health and biomedical sciences have limited training in ecology, wildlife biology, conservation and anthropology.There is growing recognition of the importance of cross-sectoral collaboration, including soaring advocacy for the ‘One Health’ approach — an integrated view of health that recognizes links between the environment, animals and humans. But, in general, this has yet to translate into action to prevent pandemics.Another challenge is that it can take decades to realize the benefits of preventing spillover, instead of weeks or months for containment measures. Benefits can be harder to quantify for spillover prevention, no matter how much time passes, because, if measures are successful, no outbreak occurs. Prevention also runs counter to individual, societal and political tendencies to wait for a catastrophe before taking action.The global pandemic fund, the WHA pandemic agreement and the post-2020 global biodiversity framework all present fresh chances to shift this mindset and put in place a coordinated global effort to reduce the risk of spillover alongside crucial pandemic preparedness efforts.Global fund for pandemicsFirst and foremost, a global fund for pandemics will be key to ensuring that the wealth of evidence on spillover prevention is translated into action. Funding for spillover prevention should not be folded into existing conservation funds, nor draw on any other existing funding streams.Investments must be targeted to those regions and practices where the risk of spillover is greatest, from southeast Asia and Central Africa to the Amazon Basin and beyond. Actions to prevent spillover in these areas, particularly by reducing deforestation, would also help to mitigate climate change and reduce loss of biodiversity. But conservation is itself drastically underfunded. As an example, natural solutions (such as conservation, restoration and improved management of forests, wetlands and grasslands) represent more than one-third of the climate mitigation needed by 2030 to stabilize warming to well below 2 °C15. Yet these approaches receive less than 2% of global funds for climate mitigation16. (Energy systems receive more than half.)In short, the decision-makers backing the global fund for pandemics must not assume that existing funds are dealing with the threat of spillover — they are not. The loss of primary tropical forest was 12% higher in 2020 than in 2019, despite the economic downturn triggered by COVID-19. This underscores the continuing threat to forests.Funding must be sustained for decades to ensure that efforts to reduce the risk of spillover are in place long enough to yield results.WHA pandemic agreementIn 2020, the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, called for a treaty to enable a more coordinated global response to major epidemics and pandemics. Last year, more than 20 world leaders began echoing this call, and the WHA launched the negotiation of an agreement (potentially, a treaty or other international instrument) to “strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response” at the end of 2021.Such a multilateral agreement could help to ensure more-equitable international action around the transfer of scientific knowledge, medical supplies, vaccines and therapeutics. It could also address some of the constraints currently imposed on the WHO, and define more clearly the conditions under which governments must notify others of a potential disease threat. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the shortcomings of the International Health Regulations on many of these fronts17. (This legal framework defines countries’ rights and obligations in the handling of public-health events and emergencies that could cross borders.)We urge negotiators to ensure that the four actions to prevent spillover outlined here are prioritized in the WHA pandemic agreement. For instance, it could require countries to create national action plans for pandemics that include reducing deforestation and closing or strictly regulating live wildlife markets. A reporting mechanism should also be developed to evaluate progress in implementing the agreement. This could build on experience from existing schemes, such as the WHO Joint External Evaluation process (used to assess countries’ capacities to handle public-health risks) and the verification regime of the Chemical Weapons Convention.Commitments to expand pathogen surveillance at interfaces between humans, domesticated animals and wildlife — from US mink farms and Asian wet markets to areas of high deforestation in South America — should also be wrapped into the WHA agreement. Surveillance will not prevent spillover, but it could enable earlier detection and better control of zoonotic outbreaks, and provide a better understanding of the conditions that cause them. Disease surveillance would improve simply through investing in clinical care for both people and animals in emerging infectious-disease hotspots.Convention on Biological DiversityWe are in the midst of the sixth mass extinction, and activities that drive the loss of biodiversity, such as deforestation, also contribute to the emergence of infectious disease. Meanwhile, epidemics and pandemics resulting from the exploitation of nature can lead to further conservation setbacks — because of economic damage from lost tourism and staff shortages affecting management of protected areas, among other factors18. Also, pathogens that infect people can be transmitted to other animals and decimate those populations. For instance, an Ebola outbreak in the Republic of Congo in 2002–03 is thought to have killed 5,000 gorillas19.Yet the global biodiversity framework currently being negotiated by the Convention on Biological Diversity fails to explicitly address the negative feedback cycle between environmental degradation, wildlife exploitation and the emergence of pathogens. The first draft made no mention of pandemics. Text about spillover prevention was proposed in March, but it has yet to be agreed on.Again, this omission stems largely from the siloing of disciplines and expertise. Just as the specialists relied on for the WHA pandemic agreement tend to be those in the health sector, those informing the Convention on Biological Diversity tend to be specialists in environmental science and conservation.The global biodiversity framework, scheduled to be agreed at the Conference of the Parties later this year, must strongly reflect the environment–health connection. This means explicitly including spillover prevention in any text relating to the exploitation of wildlife and nature’s contributions to people. Failing to connect these dots weakens the ability of the convention to achieve its own objectives around conservation and the sustainable use of resources.Preventive health careA reactive response to catastrophe need not be the norm. In many countries, preventive health care for chronic diseases is widely embraced because of its obvious health and economic benefits. For instance, dozens of colorectal cancer deaths are averted for every 1,000 people screened using colonoscopies or other methods20. A preventive approach does not detract from the importance of treating diseases when they occur.With all the stressors now being placed on the biosphere — and the negative implications this has for human health — leaders urgently need to apply this way of thinking to pandemics. More

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