Philippa Kaur

Wheat production and yield vis-à-vis climate trendsWheat is currently grown in all six continents except Antarctica. The leading producers include China, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Kazakhstan (RUK), India, USA, France, Canada, Pakistan, Germany, Argentina, Turkey, Australia, and United Kingdom (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Table 1). The total grain production of these twelve countries is estimated at 600 megatons (2019 data), which accounts for over 78% of the global wheat production. The top three producers are China with 133.6 megatons per year (Mt y−1), RUK with 114.1 Mt y−1, and India with 103.6 Mt y−1. RUK contains the largest harvested area of 45.8 million hectares, followed by India with 29.3 million hectares and China with 23.7 million hectares (Fig. 1A). Despite a relatively small harvested area of 10.1 million hectares (only 22% of RUK’s harvested area), the United Kingdom, France, and Germany account for the world’s highest yields per hectare, with 8.93 tons ha−1, 7.74 tons ha−1, and 7.40 tons ha−1, respectively (compared with the world’s average yield of only 3.2 tons ha−1), accounting for a total yearly production of 79.9 Mt y−1.Figure 1Global wheat area and trends in wheat yield and climate in top-twelve global wheat producers (1961–2019). (A) Worldwide wheat cropping area (%)29, total harvested area (106 hectares in 2019), and wheat production (megatons for 2019) of the top 12 global wheat producers (China, RUK—Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, India, USA—hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS), France, Canada, Pakistan, Germany, Argentina, Turkey, Australia, and United Kingdom) (Map was generated in Python 3.8.5; http://www.python.org). (B) Changes in wheat yield (tons per hectare) and (C) climate—mean daily temperature (red dashed line; °C) and the seasonal water balance represented as potential evaporation minus precipitation (blue line; PET—P in millimeters of H2O). A positive trend in PET-P indicates an increase in water deficit. The seasonal atmospheric [CO2] in μmol CO2 per mol−1 air is also shown in the insert of C (black line). Temperature, PET-P, and [CO2] shown in C are averaged values over the wheat-growing period and the shared area of the wheat-growing areas of the top 12 global wheat producers. Decadal trends in temperature (red) and PET-P (blue) as well as the significance levels of these trends are presented in C.Full size imageWhile all these twelve major wheat producers saw an increase in yield during the last six decades (Fig. 1B), China displayed the most noteworthy increase with a nearly sevenfold higher yield in 2019 than in 1961 and a mean total increase of 5.19 tons ha−1 for the period of 1961–2019. Germany, the UK, and France reported comparable yield increases of 5.20 tons ha−1, 5.19 tons ha−1, and 4.81 tons ha−1, respectively, during this period, suggesting an approximately 1.6-fold improvement since 1961 (Fig. 1B). Australia, RUK, and Turkey reported the lowest gains with only 0.87 tons ha−1, 1.26 tons ha−1, and 1.71 tons ha−1, respectively, representing improvements of 67%, 150%, and 175% in yield per hectare since 1961.Yield increase occurred despite the steep rise in temperature (nearly 1.2 °C) in the twelve countries during the last six decades (Fig. 1C). Water deficit—calculated as the difference between potential evaporative demand and precipitation (PET—P; mm H2O y−1)—also increased by an average of (sim) 29 mm of H2O for the same period. Increases in yield since the early 1960s were likely due to breeding and agrotechnological advances, improved management, and a steep rise in atmospheric [CO2] of (sim) 98 μmol mol−1, from 315.9 μmol mol−1 in 1961 to 413.4 μmol mol−1 in 2019 (insert in Fig. 1C).Unraveling the impacts of climate and [CO2] on yieldBased on previous studies30,31, we used a log-linear model to quantify the impact of [CO2] and daily minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax), and mean (Tmean) temperatures, as well as seasonal water deficit (PET-P), and rainfall distribution on wheat yield. Climate variables were obtained from the TerraClimate data set32, while monthly records of [CO2] from the Mauna Loa station were used to model the effects of CO2 (see “Methods”). To quantify wheat yield as a function of climate variables and [CO2], we included all 12 countries in the regression analysis. Supplementary Table 2 presents summary statistics of all variables, while Supplementary Fig. 1 depicts trends in Tmean and PET-P per country.Since climate variables tend to be correlated over time (Supplementary Table 3), controlling for all of these variables in the model facilitates the estimation of their distinct effect on yield. We used country-specific trends to distinguish changes in wheat yield related to climate and [CO2] from those attributed to agrotechnological advancements, changes in country-specific policies, and other local-changing factors (e.g., economic and population growth; more information on how this was done can be found in “Methods”). We also included country-specific effects across all models to account for unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity at the country level, such as geographical properties, edaphic characteristics, and other local-specific features (see “Methods”).Table 1 reports the estimated regression coefficients of four models, (1) using only temperature variables (T), (2) temperature and water-related (i.e., seasonal rainfall distribution and water deficit as PET-P) variables (T + W), (3) including [CO2] (T + W + C), and (4) the interaction between [CO2] and climate variables (T + W + C + interactions).Table 1 Effects of climate variables and [CO2] on log wheat yields of the world’s major wheat producers.Full size tableAmong the temperature measures, only Tmean had a consistently significant effect on yield (p  More

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Study siteWe conducted this research at the Uluwatu temple site in Bali, Indonesia. Uluwatu is located on the Island’s southern coast, in the Badung Regency. The temple at Uluwatu is a Pura Luhur, which is a significant temple for Balinese Hindus across the island and is therefore visited regularly for significant regional, community, family, and household rituals by Balinese people from different regions throughout the year18. During the period of data collection hundreds of tourists also visit the Uluwatu temple each day. The temple sits on top of a promontory cliff edge, with walking paths in front of it that continue in loops to the North and South. These looping pathways surround scrub forests, which the macaques frequently inhabit but the humans rarely enter.In 2017–2018 there were five macaque groups at Uluwatu, which ranged throughout the temple complex area, and beyond. All groups are provisioned daily with a mixed diet of corn, cucumbers, and bananas by temple staff members. The two groups included in this research are the Celagi and Riting groups. We selected these groups because they previously exhibited significant differences in robbing frequencies whereby Riting was observed exhibiting robbing and bartering more frequently than Celagi1. Furthermore, both groups include the same highly trafficked tourist areas in their overlapping home ranges relative to the other groups at Uluwatu, theoretically minimizing between group differences in the contexts of human interaction1,19.Data collectionJVP collected data from May, 2017 to March, 2018 totaling 197 focal observation hours on all 13 subadult males in Celagi and Riting that were identified in May–June 2017. Subadult male long-tailed macaques exhibit characteristic patterns of incomplete canine eruption, sex organ development, and body size growth, which achieves a maximum of 80% of total adult size18. Mean sampling effort per individual was 15.2 hours (h), with a range of 1.75 h, totaling 102.75 h for Riting and 94.75 h for Celagi. The data collection protocol consisted of focal-animal sampling and instantaneous scan sampling20 on all six subadult males in the Celagi group, and all seven subadult males in the Riting group. Focal follows were 15 minutes in length. Sampling effort per individual is presented in Table 1. A random number generator determined the order of focal follows each morning. In the event a target focal animal could not be located within 10 minutes of locating the group, the next in line was located and observed. Data presented here come from focal animal sampling records of state and event behaviors. Relevant event behaviors consist of agonistic gestures used for calculating dominance relationships, including the target, or interaction partner, of all communicative event behaviors and the time of its occurrence. All changes in the focal animal’s state behavior were noted, recording the time of the change to the minute.Table 1 Focal Subadult male long-tailed macaques in Celagi and Riting at Uluwatu, Bali, Indonesia.Full size tableDuring focal samples we recorded robbing and bartering as a sequence of mixed event and state behaviors. We scored both the robbery and exchange phases as event behaviors, and the interim phase of item possession as a state behavior. We record a robbery as successful if the focal animal took an object from a human and established control of the object with their hands or teeth, and as unsuccessful if the focal animal touched the object but was not able to establish control of it. For each successful robbery we recorded the object taken. Unsuccessful robberies end the sequence, whereas successful robberies are typically followed by various forms of manipulating the object.The robbing and bartering sequence ends with one of several event behavior exchange outcomes: (1) “Successful exchanges” consist of the focal animal receiving a food reward from a human and releasing the stolen object; (2) “forced exchanges” are when a human takes the object back without a bartering event; (3) “dropped objects” describe when the macaque loses control of the object while carrying it or otherwise locomoting, and is akin to an “accidental drop”; (4) “no exchange” includes instances of the macaque releasing the object for no reward after manipulating it; and (5) “expired observation” consists of instances in which the final result of the robbing and bartering event was unobserved in the sample period (i.e., the sample period ended while the macaque still had possession of the object). A 6th exchange outcome is “rejected exchange,” which occurs when the focal animal does not drop the stolen object after being offered, or in some cases even accepting, a food reward. The “rejected exchange” outcome is unique in that it does not end the robbing and bartering sequence because a human may have one or more exchange attempts rejected before eventually facilitating a successful exchange, or before one of the other outcomes (2–5) occurs. For each successful exchange we recorded the food item the macaques received. Food items are grouped into four categories: fruits, peanuts, eggs, and human snacks. Snacks include packaged and processed food items such as candy or chips.Data analysisWe grouped the broad range of stolen items into classes of general types. “Eyewear” combines eyeglasses and sunglasses, while “footwear” combines sandals and shoes. “Ornaments” includes objects attached to and/or hanging from backpacks, such as keychains, while “accessories” includes decorative objects attached to an individual’s body or clothing like bracelets and hair ties. “Electronics” covers cellular phones and tablets. “Hats” encompasses removable forms of headwear, most typically represented by baseball-style hats or sun hats. “Plastics” is an item class consisting of lighters and bottles, which may be filled with water, soda, or juice. The “unidentified” category is used for stolen items which could not be clearly observed during or after the robbing and bartering sequence.“Robbery attempts” refers to the combined total number of successful and unsuccessful robberies. “Robbery efficiency” is a novel metric referring to the number of successful robberies divided by the total number of robbery attempts. The “Exchange Outcome Index” is calculated by dividing the number of successful exchanges by the total number of robbery attempts. We make this calculation using robbery attempts instead of successful robberies to account for total robbery effort because failed robberies still factor into an individual’s total energy expenditure toward receiving a bartered food reward and their total exposure to the risks (e.g., physical retaliation) of stealing from humans relative to achieving the desired end result of a food reward.Social rank was measured with David’s Score, calculated using dyadic agonistic interactions. We coded “winners” of contests as those who exhibited the agonistic behavior, while “losers” were the recipients of those agonistic behaviors21,22. We excluded intergroup agonistic interactions in our calculations of David’s Score.To account for potential variation in the overall patterns of interaction with humans between groups we calculated a Human Interaction Rate, which is the sum of human-directed interactions from focal animals in each group divided by the total number of observation hours on focal animals in that group.Statistical analysisWe ran statistical tests in SYSTAT software with a significance level set at 0.05. We used chi-square goodness-of-fit tests to assess the significance of differences in successful robberies between individuals for each group. To avoid having cells with values of zero, two focal subjects, Minion and Spot from Celagi, are excluded from this test because neither were observed making a successful robbery during the observation period. We also used chi-square goodness-of-fit tests to assess exchange outcome occurrences within each group, as well as a Fisher’s exact to test for significant differences in robbery outcomes between groups due to low expected counts in 40% of the cells. “Rejected exchange” events were not included in the analysis of robbery outcomes because they do not end the sequence and are therefore not mutually exclusive with the other robbery outcomes.We further tested for the effect of dominance position on robbery outcomes. Due to our small sample size and the preliminary nature of this investigation, we used Spearman correlations to assess the relationship between subadult male dominance position via David’s Score and (1) robbing efficiency and (2) the Exchange Outcome Index.Compliance with ethical standardsThis research complied with the standards and protocols for observational fieldwork with nonhuman primates and was approved by the University of Notre Dame Compliance IACUC board (protocol ID: 16-02-2932), where JVP and AF were affiliated at the time of this research. This study did not involve human subjects. This research further received a research permit from RISTEK in Indonesia (permit number: 2C21EB0881-R), and complied with local laws and customary practices in Bali. More

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Our results show that the effects of the forest disturbance drivers on biodiversity are likely to be different from those simply expected from the baseline proportions of the forest disturbance drivers if we take into account the threatened species’ distributions. The amount of forest habitat is a primary factor for species diversity of many taxa, including mammals, amphibians, reptiles, birds, insects, and plants18. Indeed, our results revealed that threatened forest species have been exposed to a disproportional decrease in their habitat amount globally (i.e., lower proportions of forest with no or minor loss in all regions when species ranges were considered). Although this finding may be intuitive as population size and/or species range are part of the criteria in the IUCN assessment19, the detected pattern supports the validity of our approach of combining a forest disturbance map and species ranges for evaluating the impact of forest disturbances on threatened species. Moreover, we found that the dominant drivers differ among regions: the proportion of forestry, for example, increased in northern regions such as North America and Europe, whereas that of shifting agriculture increased in tropical regions when threatened species’ distributions were considered. These facts indicate although several influential international schemes for conservation have been implemented for regulating forestry20,21, different mechanisms aiming to directly tackle the over land use for local agriculture may increase their importance when we consider conservation in tropical regions. Our findings suggest that the social and economic drivers underlying the forest disturbance that impacts biodiversity differ among regions or nations, and it is important to establish specific conservation strategies in order to be effective.Based on the findings, we further emphasize that the combinations of multiple interacting drivers are likely to vary among regions. For example, the frequency and extent of stand-replacing natural disturbances such as wildfires have clearly been magnified by climate change, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g.,22). After such natural disturbances, societal demand for timber and/or pest reduction compels forest managers to ‘salvage’ timber by logging before it deteriorates, a common practice even in locations otherwise exempt from conventional green-tree harvesting, such as national parks or wilderness areas23. Thus, salvage logging clearly mediates the interaction between disturbances by forestry and wildfires and is likely to further affect biodiversity under climate change. Especially in regions where infrastructure (e.g., irrigation systems) has not been well developed, unpredictable changes in precipitation due to climate change was reported to increase forest disturbance by unregulated increases of agricultural land use24. Such regions largely overlapped with regions where shifting agriculture was identified as a dominant disturbance driver for threatened species in this study. Moreover, species themselves shift their ranges in response to climate change25, which would also shift major disturbance drivers and influential interactions of drivers to which the species are exposed, given the region-specific driver patterns. These examples clearly suggest the necessity to understand both the region-specific interrelations among multiple drivers and species’ responses for better prediction of land-use change and thus its effects on biodiversity.Shifting agriculture was the most dominant driver in all tropical regions corresponding to the recent estimates suggesting that the cover of regenerating secondary forest is increasing worldwide26. We demonstrated that this tendency is more drastic especially within the range of threatened species. The effect of shifting agriculture per unit area might be more limited than that of commodity-driven deforestation, which permanently alters forests into other land uses, since habitat structure might recover as the forest vegetation regenerates to a secondary state following the abandonment of the small clearings. However, ample evidence shows that many types of agricultural activities significantly degrade the conservation value of primary forest, especially in the tropics27, which often recovers very slowly if ever28 with the loss of irreplaceable conservation values. Therefore, given the wide areas of dominance of shifting agriculture across all tropical regions, its effect is likely to be pervasive. Consistently, our results show that species extinction risk (i.e., IUCN Red List status) is positively related to the proportional coverage of shifting agriculture (Fig. 2). In addition, as expected, a larger current proportion of shifting agriculture within a species range worsens the change rate in IUCN Red List status of the species (Fig. 4b). Furthermore, the effect is anticipated to be magnified for forest specialists because they are exposed to larger proportions of shifting agriculture than are forest generalist (Fig. 2), and they are also reported to recover more slowly than do forest habitat generalists27,28.A guideline for forest restoration suggested that appropriately sized landscapes should contain ≥40% forest cover (higher percentages are likely needed in the tropics), with about 10% in a very large forest patch and the remaining 30% in many evenly dispersed smaller patches and semi-natural wooded elements (e.g., vegetation corridors)29. Importantly, the guideline also suggests that the patches should be embedded in a high-quality matrix. Although younger secondary forest cannot be a substitute for pristine forest until 50 years or more after a disturbance, it can help to improve the quality of matrix in agricultural landscapes30. Indeed, we show that the negative impacts of shifting agriculture and forestry on IUCN status change have improved over time (Fig. 4b, c), presumably corresponding to the forest regenerating and recovery process. In contrast, the pattern of commodity-driven deforestation, a land use accompanied with permanent forest loss, showed a prolonged negative impact on IUCN status change (Fig. 4a). Notably, whether regenerating forests can move towards a highly diverse and structurally complex state or towards a state of low to intermediate levels of biodiversity and structural complexity depends on the amount of remaining intact mature forest in the landscape29. Therefore, a promising direction for future research would be to develop our analysis further to include spatiotemporal relationships among mature forest remnants, secondary forests, disturbance drivers, and threatened species populations.For conserving the core patches of mature forests, the establishment of protected areas (PAs) is one of the most effective legal measures that has been widely used to regulate land use for biodiversity31. On the other hand, for improving matrix quality, balancing conservation and use of the ecosystem would be critically important; shifting agriculture, for example, causes forest degradation, but it also contributes to food supply chains sourced from smallholder farmers and to food security of local communities8. In fact, establishing mechanisms for managing biodiversity-friendly landscapes has been intensively discussed recently, given the large potential influence of these landscapes on conservation32. These mechanisms include setting an international target on OECMs15. Our finding of a disproportional decrease in forest proportions with minor or no loss within species ranges supports the urgency of the discussion. At the same time, our results highlight an opportunity because large portions of the disturbed forests for threatened species are dominated by shifting agriculture at the global scale, especially in the tropics. As suggested above, if manged properly, such landscapes can still retain or improve functions as essential habitats and/or matrix for a variety of forest-dwelling species. Our analytical method provides a tool set to identify and prioritize areas where such attempts are urgently needed.Global demands for natural resources and ecosystem services drive land use in forests33 and thus affect biodiversity. Therefore, connecting the supply chains to the five major drivers of forest disturbance and their spatial overlaps with biodiversity is essential to inform how we should regulate and design material flows from forest ecosystems to keep them sustainable by minimizing the effects on biodiversity. Existing studies examining the impacts of resource consumption on biodiversity through supply chains of various sectors have often been assessed at the country scale (e.g.,12), partly because the availability of statistics needed to estimate material flows in supply chains is usually limited at finer (i.e., subnational) scales (but see34). We believe that our study provides the first basis for filling the resolution gap between trade statistics and local biodiversity effects by identifying patterns of the local co-occurrence of biodiversity and the forest disturbance drivers that can be directly linked to resource production at the national scale. Note, however, that downscaling a remotely sensed global data set into finer scales inevitably propagates errors and biases which include both those in the original maps and those in the processed data produced by analyses. Thus, preparation of more high-resolution data sets is essential, especially for disturbance drivers and threatened species’ distributions in our case, to keep the errors and biases at a reasonable level at focal spatial scales.The effectiveness of area-based conservation measures to regulate land use for conservation including PAs and OECMs also depends strongly on social and ecosystem conditions. For example, a few studies show that the effectiveness of PAs in halting or slowing forest disturbances depends on PA characteristics such as size and history, as well as on the management entities such as subnational governments or indigenous peoples35,36,37. Moreover, there has been no attempt to elucidate whether PAs and OECMs are effective at regulating supply chains as a supply-side measure by balancing resource production, ecosystem services for local communities, and biodiversity conservation; to tackle this issue, it will be necessary to conduct extensive analyses integrating spatial and temporal patterns of biodiversity, forest loss, its drivers, and material flows in global food supply chains. Though it is challenging and beyond the scope of this paper, solving this issue is urgent and raises a promising opportunity for future research. More

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Spillover events, in which a pathogen that originates in animals jumps into people, have probably triggered every viral pandemic that’s occurred since the start of the twentieth century1. What’s more, an August 2021 analysis of disease outbreaks over the past four centuries indicates that the yearly probability of pandemics could increase several-fold in the coming decades, largely because of human-induced environmental changes2.Fortunately, for around US$20 billion per year, the likelihood of spillover could be greatly reduced3. This is the amount needed to halve global deforestation in hotspots for emerging infectious diseases; drastically curtail and regulate trade in wildlife; and greatly improve the ability to detect and control infectious diseases in farmed animals.That is a small investment compared with the millions of lives lost and trillions of dollars spent in the COVID-19 pandemic. The cost is also one-twentieth of the statistical value of the lives lost each year to viral diseases that have spilled over from animals since 1918 (see ‘Spillovers: a growing threat’), and less than one-tenth of the economic productivity erased per year1.

Source: Ref. 1

Yet many of the international efforts to better defend the world from future outbreaks, prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic, still fail to prioritize the prevention of spillover. Take, for example, the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, established by the World Health Organization (WHO). The panel was convened in September 2020, in part to ensure that any future infectious-disease outbreak does not become another pandemic. In its 86-page report released last May, wildlife is mentioned twice; deforestation once.We urge the decision-makers currently developing three landmark international endeavours to make the prevention of spillover central to each.First, the G20 group of the world’s 20 largest economies provisionally agreed last month to create a global fund for pandemics. If realized, this could provide funding at levels that infectious-disease experts have been recommending for decades — around $5 per person per year globally (see go.nature.com/3yjitwx). Second, an agreement to improve global approaches to pandemics is under discussion by the World Health Assembly (WHA), the decision-making body of the WHO. Third, a draft framework for biodiversity conservation — the post-2020 global biodiversity framework — is being negotiated by parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity.Designed in the right way, these three international endeavours could foster a more proactive global approach to infectious diseases. This opportunity — to finally address the factors that drive major disease outbreaks, many of which also contribute to climate change and biodiversity loss — might not present itself again until the world faces another pandemic.Four actions The risk of spillover is greater when there are more opportunities for animals and humans to make contact, for instance in the trade of wildlife, in animal farming or when forests are cleared for mining, farming or roads. It is also more likely to happen under conditions that increase the likelihood of infected animals shedding viruses – when they are housed in cramped conditions, say, or not fed properly.Decades of research from epidemiology, ecology and genetics suggest that an effective global strategy to reduce the risk of spillover should focus on four actions1,3.First, tropical and subtropical forests must be protected. Various studies show that changes in the way land is used, particularly tropical and subtropical forests, might be the largest driver of emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin globally4. Wildlife that survives forest clearance or degradation tends to include species that can live alongside people, and that often host pathogens capable of infecting humans5. For example, in Bangladesh, bats that carry Nipah virus — which can kill 40–75% of people infected — now roost in areas of high human population density because their forest habitat has been almost entirely cleared6.Furthermore, the loss of forests is driving climate change. This could in itself aid spillover by pushing animals, such as bats, out of regions that have become inhospitable and into areas where many people live7.Yet forests can be protected even while agricultural productivity is increased — as long as there is enough political will and resources8. This was demonstrated by the 70% reduction in deforestation in the Amazon during 2004–12, largely through better monitoring, law enforcement and the provision of financial incentives to farmers. (Deforestation rates began increasing in 2013 due to changes in environmental legislation, and have risen sharply since 2019 during Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency.)Second, commercial markets and trade of live wild animals that pose a public-health risk must be banned or strictly regulated, both domestically and internationally.Doing this would be consistent with the call made by the WHO and other organizations in 2021 for countries to temporarily suspend the trade in live caught wild mammals, and to close sections of markets selling such animals. Several countries have already acted along these lines. In China, the trade and consumption of most terrestrial wildlife has been banned in response to COVID-19. Similarly, Gabon has prohibited the sale of certain mammal species as food in markets.

A worker in a crowded chicken farm in Anhui province, China.Credit: Jianan Yu/Reuters

Restrictions on urban and peri-urban commercial markets and trade must not infringe on the rights and needs of Indigenous peoples and local communities, who often rely on wildlife for food security, livelihoods and cultural practices. There are already different rules for hunting depending on the community in many countries, including Brazil, Canada and the United States.Third, biosecurity must be improved when dealing with farmed animals. Among other measures, this could be achieved through better veterinary care, enhanced surveillance for animal disease, improvements to feeding and housing animals, and quarantines to limit pathogen spread.Poor health among farmed animals increases their risk of becoming infected with pathogens — and of spreading them. And nearly 80% of livestock pathogens can infect multiple host species, including wildlife and humans9.Fourth, particularly in hotspots for the emergence of infectious diseases, people’s health and economic security should be improved.People in poor health — such as those who have malnutrition or uncontrolled HIV infection — can be more susceptible to zoonotic pathogens. And, particularly in immunosuppressed individuals such as these, pathogens can mutate before being passed on to others10.What’s more, some communities — especially those in rural areas — use natural resources to produce commodities or generate income in a way that brings them into contact with wildlife or wildlife by-products. In Bangladesh, for example, date palm sap, which is consumed as a drink in various forms, is often collected in pots attached to palm trees. These can become contaminated with bodily substances from bats. A 2016 investigation linked this practice to 14 Nipah virus infections in humans that caused 8 deaths11.Providing communities with both education and tools to reduce the risk of harm is crucial. Tools can be something as simple as pot covers to prevent contamination of date palm sap, in the case of the Bangladesh example.In fact, providing educational opportunities alongside health-care services and training in alternative livelihood skills, such as organic agriculture, can help both people and the environment. For instance, the non-governmental organization Health in Harmony in Portland, Oregon, has invested in community-designed interventions in Indonesian Borneo. During 2007–17, these contributed to a 90% reduction in the number of households that were reliant on illegal logging for their main livelihood. This, in turn, reduced local rainforest loss by 70%. Infant mortality also fell by 67% in the programme’s catchment area12.Systems-oriented interventions of this type need to be better understood, and the most effective ones scaled up.Wise investmentSuch strategies to prevent spillover would reduce our dependence on containment measures, such as human disease surveillance, contact tracing, lockdowns, vaccines and therapeutics. These interventions are crucial, but are often expensive and implemented too late — in short, they are insufficient when used alone to deal with emerging infectious diseases.The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the real-world limitations of these reactive measures — particularly in an age of disinformation and rising populism. For example, despite the US federal government spending more than $3.7 trillion on its pandemic response as of the end of March, nearly one million people in the United States — or around one in 330 — have died from COVID-19 (see go.nature.com/39jtdfh and go.nature.com/38urqvc). Globally, between 15 million and 21 million lives are estimated to have been lost during the COVID-19 pandemic beyond what would be expected under non-pandemic conditions (known as excess deaths; see Nature https://doi.org/htd6; 2022). And a 2021 model indicates that, by 2025, $157 billion will have been spent on COVID-19 vaccines alone (see go.nature.com/3jqds76).

A farmer in Myanmar gathers sap from a palm tree to make wine. Contamination of the collection pots with excretions from bats can spread diseases to humans.Credit: Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty

Preventing spillover also protects people, domesticated animals and wildlife in the places that can least afford harm — making it more equitable than containment. For example, almost 18 months since COVID-19 vaccines first became publicly available, only 21% of the total population of Africa has received at least one dose. In the United States and Canada, the figure is nearly 80% (see go.nature.com/3vrdpfo). Meanwhile, Pfizer’s total drug sales rose from $43 billion in 2020 to $72 billion in 2021, largely because of the company’s COVID-19 vaccine, the best-selling drug of 202113.Lastly, unlike containment measures, actions to prevent spillover also help to stop spillback, in which zoonotic pathogens move back from humans to animals and then jump again into people. Selection pressures can differ across species, making such jumps a potential source of new variants that can evade existing immunity. Some researchers have suggested that spillback was possibly responsible for the emergence of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 (see Nature 602, 26–28; 2022).Seize the dayOver the past year, the administration of US President Joe Biden and two international panels (one established in 2020 by the WHO and the other in 2021 by the G20) have released guidance on how to improve approaches to pandemics. All recommendations released so far acknowledge spillover as the predominant cause of emerging infectious diseases. None adequately discusses how that risk might be mitigated. Likewise, a PubMed search for the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 yields thousands of papers, yet only a handful of studies investigate coronavirus dynamics in bats, from which SARS-CoV-2 is likely to have originated14.Spillover prevention is probably being overlooked for several reasons. Upstream animal and environmental sources of pathogens might be being neglected by biomedical researchers and their funders because they are part of complex systems — research into which does not tend to lead to tangible, profitable outputs. Also, most people working in public health and biomedical sciences have limited training in ecology, wildlife biology, conservation and anthropology.There is growing recognition of the importance of cross-sectoral collaboration, including soaring advocacy for the ‘One Health’ approach — an integrated view of health that recognizes links between the environment, animals and humans. But, in general, this has yet to translate into action to prevent pandemics.Another challenge is that it can take decades to realize the benefits of preventing spillover, instead of weeks or months for containment measures. Benefits can be harder to quantify for spillover prevention, no matter how much time passes, because, if measures are successful, no outbreak occurs. Prevention also runs counter to individual, societal and political tendencies to wait for a catastrophe before taking action.The global pandemic fund, the WHA pandemic agreement and the post-2020 global biodiversity framework all present fresh chances to shift this mindset and put in place a coordinated global effort to reduce the risk of spillover alongside crucial pandemic preparedness efforts.Global fund for pandemicsFirst and foremost, a global fund for pandemics will be key to ensuring that the wealth of evidence on spillover prevention is translated into action. Funding for spillover prevention should not be folded into existing conservation funds, nor draw on any other existing funding streams.Investments must be targeted to those regions and practices where the risk of spillover is greatest, from southeast Asia and Central Africa to the Amazon Basin and beyond. Actions to prevent spillover in these areas, particularly by reducing deforestation, would also help to mitigate climate change and reduce loss of biodiversity. But conservation is itself drastically underfunded. As an example, natural solutions (such as conservation, restoration and improved management of forests, wetlands and grasslands) represent more than one-third of the climate mitigation needed by 2030 to stabilize warming to well below 2 °C15. Yet these approaches receive less than 2% of global funds for climate mitigation16. (Energy systems receive more than half.)In short, the decision-makers backing the global fund for pandemics must not assume that existing funds are dealing with the threat of spillover — they are not. The loss of primary tropical forest was 12% higher in 2020 than in 2019, despite the economic downturn triggered by COVID-19. This underscores the continuing threat to forests.Funding must be sustained for decades to ensure that efforts to reduce the risk of spillover are in place long enough to yield results.WHA pandemic agreementIn 2020, the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, called for a treaty to enable a more coordinated global response to major epidemics and pandemics. Last year, more than 20 world leaders began echoing this call, and the WHA launched the negotiation of an agreement (potentially, a treaty or other international instrument) to “strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response” at the end of 2021.Such a multilateral agreement could help to ensure more-equitable international action around the transfer of scientific knowledge, medical supplies, vaccines and therapeutics. It could also address some of the constraints currently imposed on the WHO, and define more clearly the conditions under which governments must notify others of a potential disease threat. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the shortcomings of the International Health Regulations on many of these fronts17. (This legal framework defines countries’ rights and obligations in the handling of public-health events and emergencies that could cross borders.)We urge negotiators to ensure that the four actions to prevent spillover outlined here are prioritized in the WHA pandemic agreement. For instance, it could require countries to create national action plans for pandemics that include reducing deforestation and closing or strictly regulating live wildlife markets. A reporting mechanism should also be developed to evaluate progress in implementing the agreement. This could build on experience from existing schemes, such as the WHO Joint External Evaluation process (used to assess countries’ capacities to handle public-health risks) and the verification regime of the Chemical Weapons Convention.Commitments to expand pathogen surveillance at interfaces between humans, domesticated animals and wildlife — from US mink farms and Asian wet markets to areas of high deforestation in South America — should also be wrapped into the WHA agreement. Surveillance will not prevent spillover, but it could enable earlier detection and better control of zoonotic outbreaks, and provide a better understanding of the conditions that cause them. Disease surveillance would improve simply through investing in clinical care for both people and animals in emerging infectious-disease hotspots.Convention on Biological DiversityWe are in the midst of the sixth mass extinction, and activities that drive the loss of biodiversity, such as deforestation, also contribute to the emergence of infectious disease. Meanwhile, epidemics and pandemics resulting from the exploitation of nature can lead to further conservation setbacks — because of economic damage from lost tourism and staff shortages affecting management of protected areas, among other factors18. Also, pathogens that infect people can be transmitted to other animals and decimate those populations. For instance, an Ebola outbreak in the Republic of Congo in 2002–03 is thought to have killed 5,000 gorillas19.Yet the global biodiversity framework currently being negotiated by the Convention on Biological Diversity fails to explicitly address the negative feedback cycle between environmental degradation, wildlife exploitation and the emergence of pathogens. The first draft made no mention of pandemics. Text about spillover prevention was proposed in March, but it has yet to be agreed on.Again, this omission stems largely from the siloing of disciplines and expertise. Just as the specialists relied on for the WHA pandemic agreement tend to be those in the health sector, those informing the Convention on Biological Diversity tend to be specialists in environmental science and conservation.The global biodiversity framework, scheduled to be agreed at the Conference of the Parties later this year, must strongly reflect the environment–health connection. This means explicitly including spillover prevention in any text relating to the exploitation of wildlife and nature’s contributions to people. Failing to connect these dots weakens the ability of the convention to achieve its own objectives around conservation and the sustainable use of resources.Preventive health careA reactive response to catastrophe need not be the norm. In many countries, preventive health care for chronic diseases is widely embraced because of its obvious health and economic benefits. For instance, dozens of colorectal cancer deaths are averted for every 1,000 people screened using colonoscopies or other methods20. A preventive approach does not detract from the importance of treating diseases when they occur.With all the stressors now being placed on the biosphere — and the negative implications this has for human health — leaders urgently need to apply this way of thinking to pandemics. More