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Jean Combes’s love of nature as a child led her to note the signs of starting spring. Her long-term records are now part of a vital growing citizen science dataset that starkly shows how climate change is shifting the timing of the natural world.For people living in colder parts of the world, watching for the first signs of spring — from the opening of snowdrops and daffodils, to birds building their nests, to the return of bees and butterflies — is a common winter pastime. Jean Combes has not just been watching out for these signs, but also recording them, ever since she was a child. Taking note of the earliest emergence of leaves in springtime — first as a child of 11 years, and then continuously from the age of 20 years — Jean has now collected one of the longest continuous datasets of spring leaf-out time in the UK (see also Correspondence by Vitasse et al.). These almost 75 years of data show a clear shift that corroborates shifts now acknowledged for diverse species around the world: springtime is coming earlier, and the patterns of advance match the global trends in the changing climate. Jean’s naturalist endeavours have already earned her high honours in the form of an OBE (Order of the British Empire), and recognition of her own work is mirrored in a growing recognition of the vital role of citizen scientists in tracking the signs of our rapidly changing world.
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System dynamics methodThe SD method applies systemic processing to simulate complex non-linear dynamics and feedback. Systemic processing resorts to various tools to simulate complex system behavior and performance24. Systems evolve through states, which change with flows. An example of a state variable is water storage in the study of lakes. The SD method simulates changes in system states driven by flows and various feedbacks25.This work employs the SD method to simulate storage change in Lake Urmia in one historical period (1957–2005) and two future periods (2021–2050 and 2051–2080). The lake’s water volume is the state variable, which is governed by inflows (precipitation, surface water inflows, and groundwater inflows) and outflows (evaporation, leakage, and surface water outflows). The lake’s mass balance equation is expressed as:$$S_{t + 1} = intlimits_{t}^{t + 1} {[I_{s} – O_{s} ]ds + S_{t} }$$
(1)
where St+1 , St, Is, and Os denote the lake’s storage at time t + 1, the lake’s storage at time t, the inflow rate to the lake at time s (units of volume/time), and the outflow rate from the lake at time s (units of volume/time), respectively.The SD method employs the Euler and Runge Kutta methods for the solution of differential equations. The software STELLA, Vensim, Powersim, and Dynamo feature SD solvers26. This work applies the widely-used Vensim software27.Climate changeThe data sets needed for modeling Lake Urmia’s storage over the two future periods were generated after simulating the lake’s water balance during the historical period. HADCM3, a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model’s (AOGCM) climate projections were used to generate precipitation and surface temperature projections over the future periods. The AOGCM data at coarse spatial scales were downscaled to the regional scale suitable for lake storage simulation. The commonly used downscaling methods are statistic and dynamic in nature28,29. This works applies the delta-change downscaling method, in which monthly temperature and precipitation differences between the future and historical are calculated by29:$$Delta T_{t} = overline{T}_{GCM,fut,t} – overline{T}_{GCM,hist,t}$$
(2)
$$Delta P_{t} = overline{P}_{GCM,fut,t} – overline{P}_{GCM,hist,t}$$
(3)
where ∆Tt denotes the difference in long-term average temperatures simulated by HADCM3 for the future ((overline{T}_{GCM,fut,t})) and historical ((overline{T}_{GCM,hist,t})) periods in month t (°C); ∆Pt represents the difference in long-term average precipitations simulated by HADCM3 for the future ((overline{P}_{GCM,fut,t})) and historical ((overline{P}_{GCM,hist,t})) periods in month t (mm). Then, ∆Tt and ∆Pt are applied to project the future downscaled data as follows29:$$T_{t} = T_{obs,t} + , Delta T_{t}$$
(4)
$$P_{t} = P_{obs,t} { + }Delta P_{t}$$
(5)
where Tobs,t, and Pobs,t denote respectively the observed temperature (°C) and precipitation (mm) in month t in the baseline period; and Tt and Pt are the downscaled temperature (°C) and precipitation (mm) in month t of the future period, respectively. Delta-change downscaling is a simple yet efficient option when it comes to spatial downscaling of climate change projections (e.g.30,31,32). The gist of this method is to replicate the changing patterns that are projected by the atmospheric ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) to generate the climate change patterns of hydro-climatic variables on a regional scale. As such, one would simply compute the relative changes in the long-term variations of the variable that is projected by the models within the baseline and future timeframes. These relative changing patterns would be applied to the historical data to project the impact of climate change on a local scale.Rainfall-runoff modelingThe IHACRES (identification of unit hydrographs and component flows from rainfall, evapotranspiration and streamflow) model is herein applied to simulate runoff from precipitation. Ashofteh et al.33 implemented the IHACRES model to investigate the effects of climate change on reservoir performance in agricultural water supply. Ashofteh et al.34 evaluated the probability of flood occurrence in future periods with IHACRES.The IHACRES model includes a non-linear loss module and a linear unit hydrograph module. The non-linear loss module converts the observed rainfall into the effective rainfall, after which the linear unit hydrograph module converts the effective rainfall into the simulated streamflow35. Here, precipitation rk in time step k is converted to effective precipitation uk through the non-linear loss module employing a catchment wetness index sk:$$u_{k} = , s_{k} times , r_{k}$$
(6)
The effective precipitation is converted to the surface runoff in time step k with the linear unit hydrograph module. The parameters of this model can be set through a thorough grid numeric search and trial-and-error. Perhaps, one of the major advantages of the IHACRES model over other commonly-used rainfall-runoff models is its minimal input data requirement (i.e., air temperature and precipitation)31,35.The other alternative for hydrologic simulation is to use data-driven models. Here, the multilayer perceptron (MLP), a variety of the artificial neural network (ANN) method, was also used to simulate runoff. This model consists of an inlet layer, one or several middle (hidden) layer(s), and an output layer. All of the neurons of a layer are connected to the ones in the next layer, forming a network with complete connections. The primary parameters in modeling the neural network of MLP are: (1) the number of neurons in each layer, (2) the number of layers in the network, and (3) the forcing functions. A regular MLP neural network has three layers36. The first and the third layers are respectively the system inputs and outputs. The middle layer consists of neurons that perform calculations on the inputs. Choosing the number of layers in a neural network is made by trial and error37. From a hydrological simulation standpoint the main idea behind this model is to create a suitable artificial neural network that is capable of accurately converting a set of hydro-climatic variables such as precipitation and temperature as input data into streamflow values. It should be noted that, like most data-driven models, the process of opting for a proper neural network architecture (i.e., selecting the number of layers, number of neurons, and the forcing function) is, for the most part, a trial-and-error procedure.One must objectively evaluate the performance of the hydrological models in order to opt for the setting of a suitable parameter. The root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and mean absolute error (MAE) are herein employed to assess the performance of the rainfall-runoff model. They are respectively calculated as follows:$$RMSE = sqrt {frac{{sumlimits_{t = 1}^{N} {(x_{t} – y_{t} )^{2} } }}{N}}$$
(7)
$$R^{2} = left( {frac{{sumnolimits_{t = 1}^{N} {(x_{t} – overline{x} ).(y_{t} – overline{y} )} }}{{sqrt {sumnolimits_{t = 1}^{N} {(x_{t} – overline{x} )^{2} } } .sqrt {sumnolimits_{t = 1}^{N} {(y_{t} – overline{y} )^{2} } } }}} right)^{2}$$
(8)
$$MAE = frac{{sumnolimits_{t = 1}^{N} {left| {x_{t} – y_{t} } right|} }}{N}$$
(9)
where xt , yt, and N denote the simulated value in time step t; the observed value in time step t; and the number data values, respectively. Large errors have a disproportionately large effect on RMSE or MAE.Performance criteriaVarious quantitative measures can be used to assess the performance of water resources systems under different strategies. When it comes to water resources planning and management, perhaps, some of the most common performance criteria are the probability-based performance criteria (PBPC) (i.e., reliability, vulnerability, and resiliency)31,38. In this context, reliability represents the probability of successful functioning of a system; resiliency measures the probability of successful functioning following a system failure; lastly, vulnerability is the severity of failure during an operation horizon39,40. The basic idea behind a performance evaluation attribute is to provide a quantitative measure to describe and assess the performance of a system. In the context of water resources planning and management, these measures have proven time and again that they can be reliable options to evaluate a set of strategic management options objectively (see, e.g.40,41,42,43, and44, just to name a few).Operating policyAny water resources system requires something called the “rule curve,” which determines how water is allocated in a given situation45. A common and effective rule curve when it comes to operation of water resource systems is the standard operation policy (SOP). SOP is a simple, and perhaps best-known real-time operation policy in water resources planning and management46. The core principle here is to minimize the water shortage at the current time step with no conservation policy (e.g., hedging rules) in place. The SOP, as a standard rule curve, determines how the operator acts to control a system at any given state of a reservoir47,48. This rule curve is established as an attempt to balance various water demands including but not limited to flood control, hydropower, water supply, and recreation49. A SOP operating system attempts to release water to meet a water demand at the current time, with no regard to the future. Thus, according to the SOP’s principle, the decision-makers, first allocate the available water to meet the demand of the stakeholder with the highest priority. After this first water demand is fully satisfied, the available water can be used for the next demand. Such an allocation process continues until no water is available.Ethics approvalAll authors accept all ethical approvals.Consent to participateAll authors consent to participate.Consent to publishAll authors consent to publish. More

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Collection of wolf hair samplesHair samples were collected by researchers from opportunistically found-dead wolves upon standard necropsy (all the Alpine and part of the Iberian samples) or in the field (all the Dinaric-Balkan and most of the Iberian samples), or from legally harvested wolves (only in the Scandinavian population). At the time of sample collection, wolves were legally harvested in Sweden, Slovenia, and Spain, and under total protection in Portugal and Italy. Hair samples were collected from four body regions, when possible: lumbar (n = 133), dorsal cervical (n = 66), tail (n = 33) and ventral thorax (n = 27) (Tables S1 and S2). The hair was cut as close as possible to the skin with scissors to avoid collecting hair follicles, but in some samples, hairs were pulled from the carcass. Samples were stored at room temperature in paper envelopes. Age, sex, date, and cause of death/capture, geographical location, body mass, and total length were obtained for most of the wolves.Age was estimated by the dental eruption and wear or cementum age analysis and classified as ‘juveniles’ ( 2 years)40, or ‘unknown’. Sex was assessed by inspection of genitalia. Causes of death were classified as ‘acute’, likely lasting minutes to hours (vehicle accident and legal or illegal shooting); ‘subacute’, likely lasting hours to days (drowning, poisoning, trapping and intraspecific aggression); ‘chronic’, likely lasting several weeks (infectious diseases—canine distemper, canine parvovirosis, leptospirosis; sarcoptic mange; or neoplastic diseases) or ‘unknown’. Total length was obtained by measuring with metric tape (1 mm precision) the distance from snout to the distal end of the last tail vertebrae. The body mass was measured with 100 g precision with scales.The detailed protocol for the handling of wolves live trapped in the scope of ecological and conservation studies (n = 7, all from the Iberian population) has been previously described5. Traps were monitored twice every day, in the early morning and late afternoon, hence the duration of restraint after capture was unknown for 8 wolves, potentially up to 12 h. Trap-alarms were deployed in the capture of 2 wolves, with 41 and 70 min intervals between activation of the alarm and administration of the drugs. Live trapping was conducted under permits issued by the nature conservation authorities of Portugal (Instituto de Conservação da Natureza e das Florestas: 338/2007/CAPT, 258/2008/CAPT, 286/2008/CAPT, 260/2009/CAPT, 332/2010/MANU, 333/2010/CAPT, 336/2010/MANU, 26/2012/MANU, and 72/2014/CAPT) and Spain (Dirección Xeral de Conservación da Naturaleza, Xunta de Galicia: E-0020/13-PNPE, 095/2013; Consejería de Medio Ambiente, Principado de Asturias: 31/08/2017-BOPA 05/09/17) and according to European Union directives on the protection of animals used for scientific purposes (Directive 2010/63/EU) and international wildlife standards41,42. The study was undertaken in compliance with the ARRIVE guidelines43.Cortisol extractionThe protocol for the extraction of cortisol from the hair was adapted from previously described procedures15,27. Forty mg of guard hairs were separated from the undercoat and placed in 15 ml falcon tubes. Hair follicles were cut whenever found in the sample. For each sample, the length of three intact hairs was recorded. The samples were washed twice with 40 µl of distilled water/mg hair and three times with the same amount of isopropanol. In each washing step, the samples and washing solution were vortexed, the supernatant discarded, and the hair dried using clean paper towels. After the final wash, samples were dried overnight at room temperature and 30 mg of hair cut into a 2 ml polypropylene screw cap plastic tube with five 4 mm steel beads added to each tube.The hair was ground to a fine powder in a FastPrep sample homogenizer (MP Biomedicals, USA) for four times 1 min at 6.0 m/s. 50 µl methanol/mg hair were added to each sample and sonicated for 30 min at 50 Hz at 50 °C. The samples were incubated for 18 h at 50 °C in an orbital shaker at 160 rpm, centrifuged for 15 min at 14,000g at 20 °C, and 1000 µl of supernatant was collected to a screw cap glass chromatography vial and dried at room temperature in a gentle stream of nitrogen gas. Due to restrictions on laboratory use during the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic, some batches of samples were instead evaporated overnight on a suction hood. This unexpected change in the methanol evaporation protocol was recorded and accounted for in the statistical analysis.Cortisol quantificationA commercial competitive ELISA kit (Cortisol free in Saliva ELISA, Demeditec, Germany) was used to quantify the concentration of cortisol, following the manufacturer’s instructions. The kit plate wells are provided coated with polyclonal rabbit antibody against cortisol, and cortisol-horseradish peroxidase was used as conjugate. According to the manufacturer, the cross-reactivity of the test to selected steroids is low (Table S3), the intra-assay variation is 3.8–5.8% and the inter-assay variation is 6.2–6.4%. Samples, standards, and controls were tested in duplicate.The 4-parameter standard curve was calculated from the log-transformed cortisol concentration of the standard solutions and their measured OD45044. Standard curves were estimated using the software GraphPad Prism 6.04 (GraphPad Software, La Jolla, California USA), and yielded an average R2adjusted = 0.991 (range 0.968–0.999). The cortisol concentration of the reconstituted samples was estimated from the standard curve and converted to cortisol concentration as picograms (pg) of cortisol/mg of guard hair.Intra and inter-assay coefficients of variation were estimated for six ELISA assays of 37–40 samples each. The low and high controls included in the kit were used to estimate the inter-assay coefficient of variation and the duplicate runs of each sample were used to estimate the intra-assay coefficient of variation. Linearity was assessed by two-fold dilutions (1:1, 1:2, 1:4 and 1:8) of 4 extracted samples, comparing the expected and observed concentrations. Recovery was assessed by spiking 6 ground hair samples with known concentrations of cortisol (50, 25, 12.5, 6.25 pg/mg, and no spiking), comparing the expected and observed concentrations.The intra-assay coefficient of variation of the ELISA assays ranged from 6.50 to 9.97% (average 7.66%). The inter-assay coefficient of variation was 11.54% for the low concentration controls and 9.08% for the high concentration controls (average 10.31%). Assay linearity was 91% for the 1:2 dilution, 103% for 1:4, and 117% for 1:8 (average 103%). The recovery of cortisol averaged 94%, being 73% for the 50 pg/mg spiked samples, 74% for 25 pg/mg, 95% for 12.5 pg/mg, and 113% for 6.25 pg/mg.Determinants of hair cortisol concentrationThe potential determinants of HCC investigated included wolf intrinsic variables: sex, age, body condition, body structural size, month of death/capture, and wolf population. The scaled mass index was selected as a measure of body condition45 and estimated from the log-transformed body weight (g) and total length (mm). Log-transformed total length was used as an indicator of body structural size46. Samples were assigned to the Iberian, Alpine, Dinaric-Balkan, or Scandinavian wolf populations16 from the geographical location of the death or live-trapping sites (Fig. 1).The relationship between HCC and additional variables related to the sampling procedure or to the work conducted in the laboratory (length of hair used for cortisol extraction, sample storage time, body region, cause of death/capture, and methanol evaporation protocol), herein referred to as methodological variables, was also investigated as potential confounding variables. Sample storage time was the period in months between death/capture and cortisol extraction. In those samples for which only the year of death was available, 30 June was assigned as the date of death, solely to estimate storage time. All continuous variables were standardized to their z-scores.Statistical analysisFirst, the effect of body region was investigated by a linear mixed model with HCC as the dependent variable, and the independent variables body region, as a categorical fixed effect, and individual wolf, as a random effect. The lumbar region was set as the reference class as it was the most represented in our sample (Table S1). Data from 27 wolves for which samples were available from all 4 body regions were used in this analysis. Four outliers in the dataset violated the assumption of normality in the residuals of the model comparing HCC across body regions (Fig. S1A) and were excluded from this model’s dataset (Fig. S1B).Second, the effect of intrinsic and methodological variables on HCC from the lumbar body region was investigated by another linear mixed model with sex, age, body condition, body structural size (standardized log-transformed total length), cause of death/capture, wolf population, hair length, sample storage time, and methanol evaporation protocol as fixed effect independent variables. The month of death/capture was included as a random effect. Reference classes for the categorical variables were set as female, adult, acute death, Iberian population, and methanol evaporation by nitrogen gas stream. Two outliers in the dataset violated the assumption of normality in the residuals of the model (Full model, Table S4) and were excluded from this analysis (Fig. S1C,D).The goal of this analysis was to assess the relationship between HCC and wolf intrinsic variables, controlling for the potential confounding effect of the methodological variables. Starting from the full model (Table S4), models including all possible combinations of variables were ranked by their AICc using the package “MuMIn”47 in R 3.6.148. The most supported model was selected for inference and models with ΔAICc  More