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doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02715-z

References1.Anderson, D. M. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2107387118 (2021).Article 

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Inverted paradoxNeutral theory can reproduce properties of terrestrial biodiversity observed at local (e.g., an island) or metacommunity (i.e., a set of interacting communities linked by dispersal of species) scales, particularly ranked species abundance curves (i.e., histograms of species abundance ordered along the x-axis from most to least common) [14]. Central to neutral theory is the interplay between ‘stochastic exclusion’ and either immigration or speciation. Stochastic exclusion is the reduction in biodiversity caused by random deaths and abundance-dependent replacement and, if not countered by other processes, ultimately leads to only a single remaining species [14]. Immigration of species into a local community or speciation within the metacommunity offset stochastic exclusion and maintain biodiversity [14]. This relationship is illustrated in Fig. 1 by simulated time-series of phytoplankton diversity for three populations at steady-state with 10,000, 100,000, and 1,000,000 total individuals and an initial condition of 10,000 species each (Fig. 1) (Methods). Subjection of these populations to 50% random mortality per generation and replacement in proportion to the relative abundance of remaining species results in an eventual rate of decrease in diversity that is equivalent across population sizes (Fig. 1; dashed black lines), eventually yielding the expected final equilibrium of a single species. When a small rate of immigration is added to this simulation (here, 0.03% or 0.3% per generation), complete stochastic exclusion is replaced by steady-state diversities that vary in direct proportion to population size and immigration rate (Fig. 1; colored dashed and dotted lines). Similar considerations led Hubbell [14] to earlier propose in his “Unified Neutral Theory” a fundamental biodiversity number, θ, controlling both species richness and relative abundance:$$theta ,=, 2Jupsilon$$
(1)
where J is the total number of individuals in the community and υ the rate of immigration (local) or speciation (metacommunity).Fig. 1: Phytoplankton biodiversity following purely stochastic processes.Red, blue, and green = phytoplankton populations (J) of 10,000, 100,000, and 1,000,000 individuals, respectively (Methods). Colored solid lines = species richness in the absence of immigration (υ). Colored dashed and dotted lines = species richness for υ values of 0.03% and 0.3% per generation. Black dashed line = mean rate of decline for the primary phase of stochastic exclusion (slope of this line is the same for all three populations). Blue and green downturned triangles = threshold for the two larger populations where diversity begins to decline rapidly because a sufficient number of species have been reduced to an abundance where extinction within a generation becomes likely.Full size imageIn addition to illustrating the balance between stochastic exclusion and immigration into a local phytoplankton community, Fig. 1 shows that significant decreases in species richness only ensue after a subpopulation of species within a community has been sufficiently decimated in number that their remaining individuals might be lost through random mortality within a generation. In our simulations, this threshold is demarked by the downturn in species richness for the populations of 100,000 and 1,000,000 individuals (Fig. 1; blue and green triangles). The significance of stochastic exclusion is thus dependent on the relation between extant species number and size of the physically-homogenized community. With respect to the latter property, typical horizontal eddy diffusion values for the upper ocean are O(103 m2 s−1), implying that the length scale for mixing in 1 day is O(1000 m). Typical number concentrations for phytoplankton of different species in the ocean range from More

CORRESPONDENCE
05 October 2021

Fund natural-history museums, not de-extinction

Corrie S. Moreau

 ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1139-5792

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Jessica L. Ware

 ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4066-7681

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Corrie S. Moreau

Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA.

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Jessica L. Ware

American Museum of Natural History, New York City, New York, USA.

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The only way to study extinct species is by leveraging the irreplaceable collections of natural-history museums. It is unfortunate, then, that instead of supporting these often imperilled institutions, private investors are spending millions on attempts to resurrect species. For example, the US start-up firm Colossal Laboratories and Biosciences, co-founded by synthetic biologist George Church, is exploring such feats.

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Nature 598, 32 (2021)
doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02710-4

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