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When I began my PhD a decade ago, climate change economics was an extremely niche area. Just a few topics dominated — especially discounting and the relative merits of different climate policy instruments — and the number of researchers was small, incommensurate with the scale of the environmental, economic or policy challenges that climate change presents. However, since then, the field has broadened, deepened and strengthened links to climate science.Notably, there has been an explosion of studies documenting the sensitivity of social and economic systems to temperature. This literature, using statistical approaches designed to identify causal relationships in non-experimental data, has uncovered the effects of temperature across a wide range of outcomes: conflict risk, pre-term birth, classroom learning as well as overall economic productivity across many sectors. This discovery of pervasive and, in some cases, large temperature impacts, even in wealthy countries, is a sharp break with previous work, which understood effects to be mostly limited to a few highly exposed sectors, such as agriculture and coastal infrastructure.Important advances have come from questioning assumptions underlying the cost–benefit assessment of climate policy. Ten years ago, conventional wisdom held that substantial emissions reductions by 2050, required to limit warming to less than 2 °C, could not be justified on a cost–benefit basis. Many studies now show that this finding is overturned under alternate but justifiable models of how climate change affects the economy and human welfare. Two prominent examples are the question of whether climate change affects the underlying growth rate of the economy, and disentangling risk and time preferences in the utility function.A welcome development has been growing interest across the entire economics discipline, with scholars from labour, development, macro, health and financial economics working on questions of weather and climate. Even more important has been recognition of systemic climate risk within major financial institutions. Central banks, institutional investors and credit rating agencies direct capital investment flows and manage economic risks, and will play a critical role in structuring future adaptive transitions. Markets, communities, households and businesses will have to adapt both to a continuously changing climate, and to a low-carbon economy. Forward-looking regulations and investments that anticipate these changes will lower the costs of these transitions.I see several important areas still in need of substantive work. Firstly, an assessment of alternative policy instruments that better incorporates the political and technological feedbacks that will accompany major climate policy. Economists tend to favour carbon pricing because of its cost-effectiveness. But how do pricing policies perform given a richer representation of other relevant market failures or real political constraints? Examples include subsidy-driven declines in technology costs or strategic interest group dynamics, where policies themselves create or undermine powerful interest groups and therefore alter the space of political possibility. Collaboration with engineers and political scientists can help address these questions. An expanded focus on desirable policies for low- and middle-income countries, essential to meet ambitious decarbonization goals and which present distinct challenges, is also critical.More work is needed on understanding climate damages, particularly those that fall outside of traditional market measures, such as losses of cultural heritage, conflict risk or biodiversity loss. These are extremely difficult to value and are not adequately incorporated into current estimates of aggregate climate damages, such as the social cost of carbon. Also critical is understanding the transition and adjustment costs associated with a continuously changing climate. Too many studies estimate equilibrium damages or assume costless adjustment. But infrastructure is long-lived, and natural hazards are already under-priced in many property markets. In this context, climate change risks creating stranded assets, price bubbles and unsustainable liabilities for local or even national governments, all of which could add substantially to climate change cost estimates.
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Institute of Environment, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USAFrederick C. Draper & Christopher BaralotoSchool of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UKFrederick C. Draper, Oliver L. Phillips, Timothy R. Baker, Roel J. W. Brienen & David R. GalbraithCenter for Global Discovery and Conservation Science, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USAFrederick C. Draper, Gregory P. Asner, Jason Vleminckx & Oscar J. Valverde BarrantesInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Manaus, BrazilFlavia R. C. Costa, Juliana Schietti, Fernanda Coelho de Souza, William E. Magnusson, Karina Melgaço, André B. Junqueira, Ana C. Andrade, José Luís Camargo, Flávia D. Santana, Ricardo O. Perdiz, Jessica Soares Cravo, Alberto Vicentini, Henrique Nascimento, Niro Higuchi & Thaiane Rodrigues de SousaEcology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USAGabriel Arellano & Paul E. BerryDepartamento de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellín, ColombiaAlvaro Duque & Mauricio Sánchez SáenzDepartamento de Biología, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, SpainManuel J. MacíaCentro de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Cambio Global (CIBC-UAM), Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, SpainManuel J. MacíaNaturalis Biodiversity Center, Leiden, The NetherlandsHans ter Steege & Tinde Van AndelSystems Ecology, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsHans ter SteegeLancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UKErika BerenguerEnvironmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UKErika Berenguer & Yadvinder MalhiFaculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, NorwayJacob B. SocolarSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKKyle G. DexterMissouri Botanical Garden, St Louis, MO, USAPeter M. Jørgensen & J. 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A.—Ciprogress Greenlife, Bogotá, ColombiaGerardo AymardAMAP, Université de Montpellier, CIRAD, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, Montpellier, FranceJulien Engel, Claire Fortunel, Jean-François Molino, Daniel Sabatier & Maxime Réjou-MéchainEnvironmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, New South Wales, AustraliaC. E. Timothy PaineINRA, UMR EcoFoG, AgroParisTech, CNRS, CIRAD, Université des Antilles, Université de Guyane, Kourou, French GuianaJean-Yves Goret & Elodie AllieCIRAD, UMR EcoFoG, Kourou, French GuianaAurelie Dourdain & Pascal PetronelliBIOMAS, Universidad de Las Américas, Quito, EcuadorJuan E. Guevara AndinoInstituto de Ecología, Herbario Nacional de Bolivia, La Paz, BoliviaLeslie Cayola Pérez, Narel Y. Paniagua Zambrana & Alfredo F. FuentesDepartamento de Biologia, Universidade Federal de Rondônia, Porto Velho, BrazilÂngelo G. ManzattoLaboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique (EDB) CNRS/UPS, Toulouse, FranceJerôme ChaveSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UKSophie FausetDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USARoosevelt Garcia VillacortaDepartment of Geography, University of Exeter, Exeter, UKTed R. FeldpauschFacultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana, Iquito, PeruElvis Valderamma Sandoval, Gilberto E. Navarro Aguilar, Jim Vega Arenas & Manuel FloresEstación Biológica del Jardín Botánico de Missouri, Oxapampa, PeruRodolfo Vasquez Martinez, Victor Chama Moscoso & Luis Valenzuela GamarraInstitut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, SpainAndré B. JunqueiraSchool of Geography & Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UKKatherine H. RoucouxDepartment of Environment and Development, Federal University of Amapá, Macapa, BrazilJosé J. de Toledo & Renato R. HilárioCentre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) and College of Marine and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, AustraliaWilliam F. Laurance & Susan G. LauranceDepartment of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USAThomas E. LovejoyInventory and Monitoring Program, National Park Service, Fredericksburg, VA, USAJames A. ComiskeySmithsonian Institution, Washington DC, USAJames A. ComiskeyDepartment of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKMichelle KalamandeenLiving with Lakes Centre, Laurentian University, Greater Sudbury, Ontario, CanadaMichelle KalamandeenDRGB, Instituto Nacional de Innovación Agraria (INIA), Lima, PeruCarlos A. Amasifuen GuerraHerbarium Amazonense (AMAZ), Universidad Nacional de la Amazonia Peruana, Loreto, PerúLuis A. Torres MontenegroDepartment of Ecology, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, BrazilMarcelo P. PansonatoInstitute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsJoost F. DuivenvoordenCentro de Estudos da Biodiversidade, Universidade Federal de Roraima, Boa Vista, BrazilSidney Araújo de Sousa & Marcos Salgado VitalMuseo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, Santa Cruz, BoliviaLuzmila Arroyo, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami & Germaine A. Parada GutierrezFaculdade de Ciências Agrárias, Biológicas e Sociais Aplicadas, Universidad do Estado de Mato Grosso, Nova Xavantina, BrazilBeatriz S. Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon Junior, Ricardo Keichi Umetsu & Nayane C. C. S. PrestesCentro de Biociências, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, BrazilFernanda Antunes CarvalhoDepartment of Ecology, Evolution and Behaviour, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USAGabriel DamascoDepartment of Geography, University College London, London, UKMathias DisneyDepartamento de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad de Los Andes (Colombia), Bogotá, ColombiaPablo R. Stevenson Diaz & Ana M. AldanaCentro de Ciências Biológicas e da Natureza, Universidade Federal do Acre, Rio Branco, BrazilSabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Richarlly da Costa Silva & Wenderson CastroNicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC, USAJohn W. TerborghIwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development, Georgetown, GuyanaRaquel S. ThomasSmithsonian’s National Zoo & Conservation Biology Institute, Washington DC, USAFrancisco DallmeierInstituto de Ciencias Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, ColombiaAdriana PrietoUniversidade Federal Rural da Amazônia—UFRA/CAPES, Belém, BrazilRafael P. SalomãoMuseu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Belém, BrasilRafael P. Salomão, Ima C. Guimarães Vieira & Antonio S. LimaLaboratorio de Ecología de Bosques Tropicales y Primatología, Fundación Natura Colombia, Universidad de Los Andes, Bogotá, ColombiaLuisa F. CasasFacultad de Forestales, Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana, Iquito, PeruFredy Ramirez ArevaloInstitute of Research for Forestry Development, Universidad de los Andes, Merida, VenezuelaHirma Ramírez-Angulo, Emilio Vilanova Torre & Armando Torres-LezamaSchool of Environmental and Forest Sciences (SEFS), University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USAEmilio Vilanova TorreUniversidad Regional Amazónica Ikiam, Tena, EcuadorMaria C. PeñuelaAgteca-Amazonica, Santa Cruz, BoliviaTimothy J. KilleenUniversidad Autónoma del Beni, Riberalta, BoliviaGuido Pardo & Vincent VosInstituto Amazónico de Investigaciones (IMANI), Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Amazonia, BrazilEliana Jimenez-RojasBroward County Parks and Recreation, Miami, FL, USAJohn PipolyBiological Sciences, Florida Atlantic University-Davie, Miami, FL, USAJohn PipolyMuseu Universitário, Universidade Federal do Acre, Rio Branco, BrazilMarcos SilveraFacultad de Ingeniería Ambiental, Universidad Estatal Amazónica, Puyo, EcuadorDavid NeillDepartment of Biology, Washington University in St Louis, St Louis, MO, USADilys M. VelaNational Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, BrazilLuiz E. O. C. AragãoGeoinformática & Sistemas (GeoIS), Quito, EcuadorRodrigo SierraSchool of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USAOphelia WangDepartment of Geography and the Environment, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USAKenneth R. YoungInstituto de Ciência e Tecnologia, São Paulo State University (UNESP), São José dos Campos, BrazilKlécia G. MassiSchool of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, UKMiguel N. AlexiadesUniversidade Federal do Amazonas, Manaus, BrazilFabrício BaccaroHerbario Alfredo Paredes (QAP), Universidad Central del Ecuador, Quito, EcuadorCarlos CéronSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UKAdriane Esquivel MuelbertDepartment of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, UKJonathan L. LloydScience and Education, The Field Museum, Chicago, IL, USANigel C. A. PitmanUniversidad Tecnica del Norte, Herbario Nacional del Ecuador, Quito, EcuadorWalter PalaciosResearch Institute Alexander von Humboldt, Bogotá, ColombiaSandra PatiñoF.C.D. and C.B. conceived the study. F.C.D., G.P.A. and C.B. designed the study with input from F.R.C.C., G. Arellano, O.L.P. and H.t.S. F.C.D. and J.B.S. performed the analysis with input from C.B., G.P.A., G. Arellano, O.L.P., A. Duque, F.C.d.S. and K.D. F.C.D. wrote the manuscript with input from C.B., F.R.C.C., G. Arellano, O.L.P., A. Duque, M.J.M., G.P.A. and H.t.S. All other coauthors contributed data and had the opportunity to comment on the manuscript. More

Experimental design and crop establishmentA microcosm experiment was conducted at Yamagata University, Tsuruoka City, Japan, from May to October 2019, with six growth containers (36 cm in height, 30 cm in width, 60 cm in length) to simulate paddy fields of 0.18 m2 in area (see Supplementary Fig. S1). The experiment was laid out in a completely randomized design with three replications of two treatments: (1) rice cropping under CSI and (2) conventional rice cultivation fertilized with mineral fertilisers and irrigated with tap water (Control).Each container was filled with 32 kg of a paddy soil collected from an experimental field in the university farm and transplanted with four hills of 30-day-old seedlings (Oryza sativa L., cv. Bekoaoba) on 27th May 2019. The experiment was performed in accordance with relevant guidelines and regulations for research involving plants. The experimental soil was classified as loamy soil (air-dried, 20% moisture) with the following basic properties: pH (H2O) of 5.78, electrical conductivity (EC) of 0.09 dS m−1, SOM of 4.9%, and a total N, P, and K of 1.46, 0.88, and 3.17 g kg−1, respectively. The TWW used in the CSI system was collected from a local WWTP and monitored weekly for its basic properties (Table 2) following our previous studies6,7. In brief, pH, EC, and DO of water samples were measured on-site using pH/conductivity and DO portable meters (D-54 and OM-51, HORIBA, Ltd., Kyoto, Japan), whereas TOC and total N were analyzed using a TOC analyzer (TOC-VCSV, Shimadzu Corp., Kyoto, Japan) attached to a total N measuring unit (TNM-1, Shimadzu Corp., Kyoto, Japan). After a standard acid-digestion of water samples6, the concentration of P was measured using a portable colorimeter (DR/890, HATCH, USA), and the concentration of K was measured using an inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS ELAN DRCII, PerkinElmer Japan Co., Ltd.). The tap water used in this study was also tested on a regular basis and found to be stable throughout the crop season, with the following properties: pH of 7.8, EC of 0.095 dS m−1, DO, TOC, N, and P of 6.85, 0.49, 0.06, and 0.07 mg L−1, respectively, with K being below the ICP-MS detection limit ( More