Philippa Kaur

Imagination is critical to sustainable and just futures for life on Earth8,13. Writing after the West African Ebola outbreak, Professor Michael Osterholm and colleagues called for more “creative imagination” to consider future pandemic scenarios14. This feels particularly salient five years on. Purely technocratic approaches fail to engage with the emotions that motivate action towards alternative futures: fear, hope, grief and agency8,15. By building new ways of thinking about longstanding problems, inclusive and creative processes can generate positive stories about the future in ways that are empowering8,10. Imagining the future can drive societies towards change by shaping common practices, aspirations and institutions16.
Methods for imagining, such as scenarios analysis, strategic foresight and speculative fiction are commonplace in research, investment and planning8,13,17. They can help the biodiversity community address the bleak futures that are projected for biodiversity. Research can play an important role in embracing imagination by fostering novel participatory methods that enable society to explore what is possible, plausible and desirable13. All models and scenarios are wrong, some are helpful: they contain assumptions about what matters, what is known and what is unknown. Embracing and communicating these assumptions and uncertainties builds trust in science, opening up spaces for deliberation about values, trade-offs and desirable futures18.
Imagination can build the anticipatory capacity to get ahead of the curve, rather than react to crisis17. Decision makers must learn to provide anticipatory leadership that fosters shared responsibility for actions that may have greater costs now, to avert harm in the future. Enabling transformations also requires those who benefit from the status quo to acknowledge the need for change. Policy frameworks need to consider the distribution of costs and benefits over longer timescales when setting current priorities. Ultimately, society needs to accept that the future is unknowable and uncertain, but that action is needed now.
These anticipatory capacities start with asking: what are the short- and long-term drivers of change? What values should be maintained into the future? What can be done differently over the next five years? Over the next 30 years? What do we need to know and what will we never know? How can options be created and traps avoided? What are the ethical implications of action and inaction? Considering these types of questions can provide a foundation for decision making despite uncertainty.
Our stories show that choices have consequences. Some close down options. Some open up multiple pathways. Either way, choices create winners and losers. The critical challenges of the Anthropocene require humility19 and the ability to respond20. Imagination can help the biodiversity community grapple with these challenges by embracing diverse ways of thinking, listening, being and knowing. And such diversity can be the foundation of more just and sustainable futures for life on Earth. More

The Cooper bundles were found just beneath the sand surface ~15 m up from the waterline. A sand slope angle of 10∘ was measured during a site investigation which would place the burial site ~3 m vertically above the water line. This location would only be immersed during times of high water and wave action. Dredging operations took place on the river and the sand was dumped slightly upstream of the burial location and could have contributed to additional sand on top of the bills. Sand is no longer deposited on the beach and it has undergone severe erosion. Rubber bands found intact but degraded on the bundles suggests they were initially buried without any significant exposure to the elements which is known to rapidly degrade them25.
In order to determine if a seasonal diatom timeline can be used to constrain the burial of the Cooper money, the first question to be answered is: can diatoms penetrate a bundle of money buried in sand? The diatom saturated water experiment showed that penetration is possible but only for the smaller range of diatoms and only a limited distance in from the edge on the order of millimeters. No “tide lines” of diatoms or small sand fragments were found on the Cooper bill. Since we know from the experiment that diatom accumulations were likely to happen on the edges, the lack of aggregations suggests they were destroyed with the severe degradation around the edges of the bundle. The inner degraded edge where the SEM samples were taken from showed no accumulations, suggesting the bills had congealed into a solid lump (consistent with the condition that the bills were found in), preventing any further diatom infiltration.
A second line of evidence that would signal diatom infiltration while buried would be an abundance of diatoms in the bills that were also found in the surrounding sand. The extraction of the diatoms from the Tena Bar sand showed a predominance of small forms on the order of 3–5 µm. These small diatoms are consistent with species that can survive in sand due to their ability to situate in the interstitial crevices of a single sand grain26,27. Larger diatoms, of which Asterionella and Fragilaria are among the largest, have low survivability in the proportionally boulder size sand grains26. The lack of predominantly smaller diatoms on the Cooper bill suggests little to no diatom infiltration to the inner portions of the stack occurred while buried. While similar small diatoms were found on the bills, they were not a dominant category as would be expected if they were the primary source of infiltration.
If the Cooper bill used in this examination was from the top of the stack, then one could expect to find a variety of diatoms from all sources. Figure 2C indicates conclusively that the examined bill is from the middle of the stack by finding an intact Fragilaria sandwiched between two bills. Due to the congealed nature of the bills, it was not uncommon to find intact fragments of other bills adhered to the larger bill. Fragilaria at ~80 µm28 is considered a larger diatom in the Columbia River system29. It is planktonic30 and therefore has no ability to move through sand. Its size and location interior to the stack (Fig. 1) and notably with no smaller diatoms surrounding it, suggests that it came to rest there while the bill was completely exposed to river water.
If the previous experiments and investigations rule out diatom infiltration while buried, then the findings suggest that diatoms found their way onto the bills during water immersion. As shown in Fig. 4, a stack of bills once saturated, will fan out in water exposing all surfaces to micro-particles in the water environment. The exposure of the fanned out stack to the river, suggests the simplest way for large, intact but fragile diatoms to be found alone interior to the bill stack. This would have occurred prior to burial and be in the water long enough for fan out to occur.
Figure 4

(A) Stack of bills bound with a rubber band immediately after placing in still water. (B) After several minutes, the stack becomes saturated and fans out exposing individual bills to the water. Shortly thereafter the entire stack will sink to the bottom.

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The Columbia River has seasonal blooms of diatoms with different species found in winter vs summer19. If the bills were submerged for an extended period covering multiple seasons, then diatom species found on the bill should also represent multiple seasons. Table 1 shows the genera found on the Cooper bill and the dollar bill soaked in the Columbia in November. The first notable observation is that there is little overlap in genera between the two seasons.
Asterionella followed by Fragilaria are key indicators in this study. Asterionella are relatively large up to 100 µm31, planktonic diatoms that undergo radical changes in population in the Columbia River (Fig. 5) of up to 10 × during the course of the year20. They assemble into star shaped colonies that are susceptible to damage. Asterionella were found broken but associated on the Cooper bill as shown in Fig. 2A. Although in pieces, the relatively complete association of parts suggests that the diatoms landed intact on the bill and were subsequently crushed and broken after the fact. Similar associations were found elsewhere on the Cooper samples.
Figure 5

Monthly abundance of Asterionella showing population bloom in May and June. Extremely low numbers are apparent for winter months. Data compiled from three sources19,20,21 graph shows relative numbers.

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Several examples Asterionella were found on the Cooper bills and this diatom is nearly absent in November when the jump occurred20,21. There is however a very large bloom of Asterionella in early summer during the months of May and June19,21. The other diatoms identified on the Cooper bill such as Stephanodiscus are also more prevalent in the summer season21. The diatoms found on the November bill are not consistent with species found on the Cooper bill. This suggests that the Cooper bill was immersed during the summer Asterionella bloom and the length of submersion did not extend into subsequent seasons.
Trace elements are incorporated into the diatom frustule during growth and elemental availability varies in rivers during the year17. Krivtsov et al. 2000 studied the elemental variation in A. formosa and found that it varied by the season5. There were not enough recovered Asterionella from the November time frame to do a direct comparison but elemental signatures from a variety of specimens were compared between the November and Cooper bills. Figure 6 shows the diatom’s elemental spectra of calcium and sodium overlaid. The spectra were normalized to silicon and show relative abundances. The detected levels were small and near the limit of EDS sensitivity so this data is provided as qualitative. Elemental differences between the two groups showed slightly enriched calcium and a lack of sodium in the November diatoms while showing the complete opposite for the Cooper diatoms. A single fragment potentially from Asterionella or Fragilaria was found in the November sand from Tena Bar (Fig. 4B). This spectrum showed elevated levels of calcium and sodium again suggesting a difference from the A. formosa found on the Cooper bill which only showed enriched sodium. The single diatom spectrum from the March bill showed no increase in either sodium or calcium suggesting the March time frame has a different elemental abundance in the water from either the winter or Cooper sample suspected to have summer diatoms. The reproductive lifetime of a diatom is on the order of days32 so a difference in elemental abundance suggests that these three assemblages were from different seasonal periods.
Figure 6

(A) EDS spectra overlay showing the sodium line. Red lines are spectra from the Cooper bill diatoms showing elevated sodium levels, green lines are from November samples. Blue line is the single Asterionella spectra from the November sand sample showing no enrichment in either sodium or calcium. (B) Calcium line showing elevated presence of calcium for November diatoms while Cooper samples show lower levels. Each group of diatoms showed opposite enrichment of sodium and calcium. Data is relative and qualitative.

Full size image More

Affiliations

ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
T. H. Morrison, C. Huchery & T. P. Hughes

College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
W. N. Adger & K. Brown

Environment and Disaster Management Program, World Wildlife Fund, Washington, DC, USA
M. Hettiarachchi

School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
M. C. Lemos

Authors
T. H. Morrison

W. N. Adger

K. Brown

M. Hettiarachchi

C. Huchery

M. C. Lemos

T. P. Hughes

Corresponding author
Correspondence to T. H. Morrison. More

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Author notes
A. Serafimovich
Present address: Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

Affiliations

Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
M. Engram & K. M. Walter Anthony

International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
K. M. Walter Anthony

GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
T. Sachs, K. Kohnert & A. Serafimovich

Department of Experimental Limnology, Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Stechlin, Germany
K. Kohnert

Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Permafrost Research Center, Potsdam, Germany
G. Grosse

Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
G. Grosse

Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA
F. J. Meyer

Authors
M. Engram

K. M. Walter Anthony

T. Sachs

K. Kohnert

A. Serafimovich

G. Grosse

F. J. Meyer

Corresponding author
Correspondence to M. Engram. More

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92.
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93.
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94.
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95.
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96.
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97.
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98.
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99.
BioSample of Gammaproteobacteria bacterium MAG_00215_gam_020. NCBI BioSample https://identifiers.org/ncbi/biosample:SAMN14911654 (2020).

100.
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101.
BioSample of Nitrospinae bacterium MAG_09705_ntspn_70. NCBI BioSample https://identifiers.org/ncbi/biosample:SAMN14911661 (2020).

102.
BioSample of Nitrospirae bacterium MAG_10313_ntr_31. NCBI BioSample https://identifiers.org/ncbi/biosample:SAMN14911663 (2020).

103.
BioSample of Desulfuromonadales bacterium MAG_21601_9_030. NCBI BioSample https://identifiers.org/ncbi/biosample:SAMN14911674 (2020).

104.
BioSample of Desulfuromonadales bacterium MAG_13126_9_058. NCBI BioSample https://identifiers.org/ncbi/biosample:SAMN14911678 (2020).

105.
BioSample of Desulfuromonadales bacterium MAG_21600_9_004. NCBI BioSample https://identifiers.org/ncbi/biosample:SAMN14911673 (2020).

106.
BioSample of Planctomycetes bacterium MAG_11118_pl_115. NCBI BioSample https://identifiers.org/ncbi/biosample:SAMN14911664 (2020).

107.
BioSample of Planctomycetes bacterium MAG_17991_pl_60. NCBI BioSample https://identifiers.org/ncbi/biosample:SAMN14911669 (2020).

108.
BioSample of Planctomycetes bacterium MAG_18080_pl_157. NCBI BioSample https://identifiers.org/ncbi/biosample:SAMN14911671 (2020).

109.
BioSample of Rhodospirillaceae bacterium MAG_04806_tlms_2. NCBI BioSample https://identifiers.org/ncbi/biosample:SAMN14911657 (2020).

110.
BioSample of Rhodospirillaceae bacterium MAG_05422_2-02_14. NCBI BioSample https://identifiers.org/ncbi/biosample:SAMN14911658 (2020).

111.
BioSample of Rhodospirillaceae bacterium MAG_05596_2-02_51. NCBI BioSample https://identifiers.org/ncbi/biosample:SAMN14911659 (2020).

112.
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113.
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114.
Assembly for unclassified Nitrospina Bin 25. IMG https://identifiers.org/img.taxon:2651870060 (2016).

115.
Assembly for Planctomycetes bacterium SCGC JGI090-P21. IMG Assembly https://identifiers.org/img.taxon:2264265205 (2015).

116.
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117.
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