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    Unlocking ammonia as a fuel source for heavy industry

    At a high level, ammonia seems like a dream fuel: It’s carbon-free, energy-dense, and easier to move and store than hydrogen. Ammonia is also already manufactured and transported at scale, meaning it could transform energy systems using existing infrastructure. But burning ammonia creates dangerous nitrous oxides, and splitting ammonia molecules to create hydrogen fuel typically requires lots of energy and specialized engines.The startup Amogy, founded by four MIT alumni, believes it has the technology to finally unlock ammonia as a major fuel source. The company has developed a catalyst it says can split — or “crack” — ammonia into hydrogen and nitrogen up to 70 percent more efficiently than state-of-the-art systems today. The company is planning to sell its catalysts as well as modular systems including fuel cells and engines to convert ammonia directly to power. Those systems don’t burn or combust ammonia, and thus bypass the health concerns related to nitrous oxides.Since Amogy’s founding in 2020, the company has used its ammonia-cracking technology to create the world’s first ammonia-powered drone, tractor, truck, and tugboat. It has also attracted partnerships with industry leaders including Samsung, Saudi Aramco, KBR, and Hyundai, raising more than $300 million along the way.“No one has showcased that ammonia can be used to power things at the scale of ships and trucks like us,” says CEO Seonghoon Woo PhD ’15, who founded the company with Hyunho Kim PhD ’18, Jongwon Choi PhD ’17, and Young Suk Jo SM ’13, PhD ’16. “We’ve demonstrated this approach works and is scalable.”Earlier this year, Amogy completed a research and manufacturing facility in Houston and announced a pilot deployment of its catalyst with the global engineering firm JGC Holdings Corporation. Now, with a manufacturing contract secured with Samsung Heavy Industries, Amogy is set to start delivering more of its systems to customers next year. The company will deploy a 1-megawatt ammonia-to-power pilot project with the South Korean city of Pohang in 2026, with plans to scale up to 40 megawatts at that site by 2028 or 2029. Woo says dozens of other projects with multinational corporations are in the works.Because of the power density advantages of ammonia over renewables and batteries, the company is targeting power-hungry industries like maritime shipping, power generation, construction, and mining for its early systems.“This is only the beginning,” Woo says. “We’ve worked hard to build the technology and the foundation of our company, but the real value will be generated as we scale. We’ve proved the potential for ammonia to decarbonize heavy industry, and now we really want to accelerate adoption of our technology. We’re thinking long term about the energy transition.”Unlocking a new fuel sourceWoo completed his PhD in MIT’s Department of Materials Science and Engineering before his eventual co-founders, Kim, Choi, and Jo, completed their PhDs in MIT’s Department of Mechanical Engineering. Jo worked on energy science and ran experiments to make engines run more efficiently as part of his PhD.“The PhD programs at MIT teach you how to think deeply about solving technical problems using systems-based approaches,” Woo says. “You also realize the value in learning from failures, and that mindset of iteration is similar to what you need to do in startups.”In 2020, Woo was working in the semiconductor industry when he reached out to his eventual co-founders asking if they were working on anything interesting. At that time, Jo was still working on energy systems based on hydrogen and ammonia while Kim was developing new catalysts to create ammonia fuel.“I wanted to start a company and build a business to do good things for society,” Woo recalls. “People had been talking about hydrogen as a more sustainable fuel source, but it had never come to fruition. We thought there might be a way to improve ammonia catalyst technology and accelerate the hydrogen economy.”The founders started experimenting with Jo’s technology for ammonia cracking, the process in which ammonia (NH3) molecules split into their nitrogen (N2) and hydrogen (H2) constituent parts. Ammonia cracking to date has been done at huge plants in high-temperature reactors that require large amounts of energy. Those high temperatures limited the catalyst materials that could be used to drive the reaction.Starting from scratch, the founders were able to identify new material recipes that could be used to miniaturize the catalyst and work at lower temperatures. The proprietary catalyst materials allow the company to create a system that can be deployed in new places at lower costs.“We really had to redevelop the whole technology, including the catalyst and reformer, and even the integration with the larger system,” Woo says. “One of the most important things is we don’t combust ammonia — we don’t need pilot fuel, and we don’t generate any nitrogen gas or CO2.”Today Amogy has a portfolio of proprietary catalyst technologies that use base metals along with precious metals. The company has proven the efficiency of its catalysts in demonstrations beginning with the first ammonia-powered drone in 2021. The catalyst can be used to produce hydrogen more efficiently, and by integrating the catalyst with hydrogen fuel cells or engines, Amogy also offers modular ammonia-to-power systems that can scale to meet customer energy demands.“We’re enabling the decarbonization of heavy industry,” Woo says. “We are targeting transportation, chemical production, manufacturing, and industries that are carbon-heavy and need to decarbonize soon, for example to achieve domestic goals. Our vision in the longer term is to enable ammonia as a fuel in a variety of applications, including power generation, first at microgrids and then eventually full grid-scale.”Scaling with industryWhen Amogy completed its facility in Houston, one of their early visitors was MIT Professor Evelyn Wang, who is also MIT’s vice president for energy and climate. Woo says other people involved in the Climate Project at MIT have been supportive.Another key partner for Amogy is Samsung Heavy Industries, which announced a multiyear deal to manufacturing Amogy’s ammonia-to-power systems on Nov. 12.“Our strategy is to partner with the existing big players in heavy industry to accelerate the commercialization of our technology,” Woo says. “We have worked with big oil and gas companies like BHP and Saudi Aramco, companies interested in hydrogen fuel like KBR and Mitsubishi, and many more industrial companies.”When paired with other clean energy technologies to provide the power for its systems, Woo says Amogy offers a way to completely decarbonize sectors of the economy that can’t electrify on their own.“In heavy transport, you have to use high-energy density liquid fuel because of the long distances and power requirements,” Woo says. “Batteries can’t meet those requirements. It’s why hydrogen is such an exciting molecule for heavy industry and shipping. But hydrogen needs to be kept super cold, whereas ammonia can be liquid at room temperature. Our job now is to provide that power at scale.” More

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    How a building creates and defines a region

    As an undergraduate majoring in architecture, Dong Nyung Lee ’21 wasn’t sure how to respond when friends asked him what the study of architecture was about.“I was always confused about how to describe it myself,” he says with a laugh. “I would tell them that it wasn’t just about a building, or a city, or a community. It’s a balance across different scales, and it has to touch everything all at once.”As a graduate student enrolled in a design studio course last spring — 4.154 (Territory as Interior) — Lee and his classmates had to design a building that would serve a specific community in a specific location. The course, says Lee, gave him clarity as to “what architecture is all about.”Designed by Roi Salgueiro Barrio, a lecturer in the MIT School of Architecture and Planning’s Department of Architecture, the coursework combines ecological principles, architectural design, urban economics, and social considerations to address real-world problems in marginalized or degraded areas.“When we build, we always impact economies, mostly by the different types of technologies we use and their dependence on different types of labor and materials,” says Salgueiro Barrio. “The intention here was to think at both levels: the activities that can be accommodated, and how we can actually build something.”Research firstStudents were tasked with repurposing an abandoned fishing industry building on the Barbanza Peninsula in Galicia, Spain, and proposing a new economic activity for the building that would help regenerate the local economy. Working in groups, they researched the region’s material resources and fiscal sectors and designed detailed maps. This approach to constructing a building was new for Vincent Jackow a master’s student in architecture.“Normally in architecture, we work at the scale of one-to-100 meters,” he says. But this process allowed me to connect the dots between what the region offered and what could be built to support the economy.”The aim of revitalizing this area is also a goal of Fundación RIA (FRIA), a nonprofit think tank established by Pritzker Prize-winning architect David Chipperfield. FRIA generates research and territorial planning with the goal of long-term sustainability of the built and natural environment in the Galicia region. During their spring break in March, the students traveled to Galicia, met with Chipperfield, business owners, fishermen, and farmers, and explored a variety of sites. They also consulted with the owner of the building they were to repurpose.Returning to MIT, the students constructed nine detailed models. Master’s student Aleks Banaś says she took the studio because it required her to explore the variety of scales in an architectural project from territorial analysis to building detail, all while keeping the socio-economic aspect of design decisions in mind.“I’m interested in how architecture can support local economies,” says Banaś. “Visiting Galicia was very special because of the communities we interacted with. We were no longer looking at articles and maps of the region; we were learning about day-to-day life. A lot of people shared with us the value of their work, which is not economically feasible.”Banaś was impressed by the region’s strong maritime history and the generations of craftspeople working on timber boat-making. Inspired by the collective spirit of the region, she designed “House of Sea,” transforming the former cannery into a hub for community gathering and seafront activities. The reimagined building would accommodate a variety of functions including a boat-building workshop for the Ribeira carpenters’ association, a restaurant, and a large, covered section for local events such as the annual barnacle festival.“I wanted to demonstrate how we can create space for an alternative economy that can host and support these skills and traditions,” says Banaś. Jackow’s building — “La Nueva Cordelería,” or “New Rope Making” — was a facility using hemp to produce rope and hempcrete blocks (a construction material). The production of both “is very on-trend in the E.U.” and provides an alternative to petrochemical-based ropes for the region’s marine uses, says Jackow. The building would serve as a cultural hub, incorporating a café, worker housing, and offices. Even its very structure would also make use of the rope by joining timber with knots allowing the interior spaces to be redesigned.Lee’s building was designed to engage with the forestry and agricultural industries.“What intrigued me was that Galicia is heavily dependent on pulp production and wood harvesting,” he says. “I wanted to give value to the post-harvest residue.”Lee designed a biochar plant using some of the concrete and terra cotta blocks on site. Biochar is made by heating the harvested wood residue through pyrolysis — thermal decomposition in an environment with little oxygen. The resulting biochar would be used by farmers for soil enhancement.“The work demonstrated an understanding of the local resources and using them to benefit the revitalization of the area,” says Salgueiro Barrio, who was pleased with the results. FRIA was so impressed with the work that they held an exhibition at their gallery in Santiago de Compostela in August and September to highlight the importance of connecting academic research with the territory through student projects. Banaś interned with FRIA over the summer working on multiple projects, including the plan and design for the exhibition. The challenge here, she says, was to design an exhibition of academic work for a general audience. The final presentation included maps, drawings, and photographs by the students.For Lee, the course was more meaningful than any he has taken to date. Moving between the different scales of the project illustrated, for him, “the biggest challenge for a designer and an architect. Architecture is universal, and very specific. Keeping those dualities in focus was the biggest challenge and the most interesting part of this project. It hit at the core of what architecture is.” More

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    Ultrasonic device dramatically speeds harvesting of water from the air

    Feeling thirsty? Why not tap into the air? Even in desert conditions, there exists some level of humidity that, with the right material, can be soaked up and squeezed out to produce clean drinking water. In recent years, scientists have developed a host of promising sponge-like materials for this “atmospheric water harvesting.”But recovering the water from these materials usually requires heat — and time. Existing designs rely on heat from the sun to evaporate water from the materials and condense it into droplets. But this step can take hours or even days. Now, MIT engineers have come up with a way to quickly recover water from an atmospheric water harvesting material. Rather than wait for the sun to evaporate water out, the team uses ultrasonic waves to shake the water out.The researchers have developed an ultrasonic device that vibrates at high frequency. When a water-harvesting material, known as a “sorbent,” is placed on the device, the device emits ultrasound waves that are tuned to shake water molecules out of the sorbent. The team found that the device recovers water in minutes, versus the tens of minutes or hours required by thermal designs.

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    MIT engineers design an ultrasonic system to “shake” water out of an atmospheric water harvester. The new design can recover captured water in minutes rather than hours.

    Unlike heat-based designs, the device does require a power source. The team envisions that the device could be powered by a small solar cell, which could also act as a sensor to detect when the sorbent is full. It could also be programmed to automatically turn on whenever a material has harvested enough moisture to be extracted. In this way, a system could soak up and shake out water from the air over many cycles in a single day.“People have been looking for ways to harvest water from the atmosphere, which could be a big source of water particularly for desert regions and places where there is not even saltwater to desalinate,” says Svetlana Boriskina, principal research scientist in MIT’s Department of Mechanical Engineering. “Now we have a way to recover water quickly and efficiently.”Boriskina and her colleagues report on their new device in a study appearing today in the journal Nature Communications. The study’s first author is Ikra Iftekhar Shuvo, an MIT graduate student in media arts and sciences, along with Carlos Díaz-Marín, Marvin Christen, Michael Lherbette, and Christopher Liem.Precious hoursBoriskina’s group at MIT develops materials that interact with the environment in novel ways. Recently, her group explored atmospheric water harvesting (AWH), and ways that materials can be designed to efficiently absorb water from the air. The hope is that, if they can work reliably, AWH systems would be of most benefit to communities where traditional sources of drinking water — and even saltwater — are scarce.Like other groups, Boriskina’s lab had generally assumed that an AWH system in the field would absorb moisture during the night, and then use the heat from the sun during the day to naturally evaporate the water and condense it for collection.“Any material that’s very good at capturing water doesn’t want to part with that water,” Boriskina explains. “So you need to put a lot of energy and precious hours into pulling water out of the material.”She realized there could be a faster way to recover water after Ikra Shuvo joined her group. Shuvo had been working with ultrasound for wearable medical device applications. When he and Boriskina considered ideas for new projects, they realized that ultrasound could be a way to speed up the recovery step in atmospheric water harvesting.“It clicked: We have this big problem we’re trying to solve, and now Ikra seemed to have a tool that can be used to solve this problem,” Boriskina recalls.Water danceUltrasound, or ultrasonic waves, are acoustic pressure waves that travel at frequencies of over 20 kilohertz (20,000 cycles per second). Such high-frequency waves are not visible or audible to humans. And, as the team found, ultrasound vibrates at just the right frequency to shake water out of a material.“With ultrasound, we can precisely break the weak bonds between water molecules and the sites where they’re sitting,” Shuvo says. “It’s like the water is dancing with the waves, and this targeted disturbance creates momentum that releases the water molecules, and we can see them shake out in droplets.”Shuvo and Boriskina designed a new ultrasonic actuator to recover water from an atmospheric water harvesting material. The heart of the device is a flat ceramic ring that vibrates when voltage is applied. This ring is surrounded by an outer ring that is studded with tiny nozzles. Water droplets that shake out of a material can drop through the nozzle and into collection vessels attached above and below the vibrating ring.They tested the device on a previously designed atmospheric water harvesting material. Using quarter-sized samples of the material, the team first placed each sample in a humidity chamber, set to various humidity levels. Over time, the samples absorbed moisture and became saturated. The researchers then placed each sample on the ultrasonic actuator and powered it on to vibrate at ultrasonic frequencies. In all cases, the device was able to shake out enough water to dry out each sample in just a few minutes.The researchers calculate that, compared to using heat from the sun, the ultrasonic design is 45 times more efficient at extracting water from the same material.“The beauty of this device is that it’s completely complementary and can be an add-on to almost any sorbent material,” says Boriskina, who envisions a practical, household system might consist of a fast-absorbing material and an ultrasonic actuator, each about the size of a window. Once the material is saturated, the actuator would briefly turn on, powered by a solar cell, to shake out the water. The material would then be ready to harvest more water, in multiple cycles throughout a single day.“It’s all about how much water you can extract per day,” she says. “With ultrasound, we can recover water quickly, and cycle again and again. That can add up to a lot per day.”This work was supported, in part, by the MIT Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab and the MIT-Israel Zuckerman STEM Fund. More

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    Small, inexpensive hydrophone boosts undersea signals

    Researchers at MIT Lincoln Laboratory have developed a first-of-its-kind hydrophone built around a simple, commercially available microphone. The device, leveraging a common microfabrication process known as microelectromechanical systems (MEMS), is significantly smaller and less expensive than current hydrophones, yet has equal or exceeding sensitivity. The hydrophone could have applications for the U.S. Navy, as well as industry and the scientific research community.”Given the broad interest from the Navy in low-cost hydrophones, we were surprised that this design had not been pursued before,” says Daniel Freeman, who leads this work in the Advanced Materials and Microsystems Group. “Hydrophones are critical for undersea sensing in a variety of applications and platforms. Our goal was to demonstrate that we could develop a device at reduced size and cost without sacrificing performance.”Essentially an underwater microphone, a hydrophone is an instrument that converts sound waves into electrical signals, allowing us to “hear” and record sounds in the ocean and other bodies of water. These signals can later be analyzed and interpreted, providing valuable information about the underwater environment.MEMS devices are incredibly small systems — ranging from a few millimeters down to microns (smaller than a human hair) — with tiny moving parts. They are used in a variety of sensors, including microphones, gyroscopes, and accelerometers. The small size of MEMS sensors has made them crucial in various applications, from smartphones to medical devices. Currently, no commercially available hydrophones utilize MEMS technology, so the team set out to understand whether such a design was possible.With funding from the Office of the Under Secretary of War for Research and Engineering to develop a novel hydrophone, the team first planned to use microfabrication, an area of expertise at the laboratory, to develop their device. However, that approach proved to be too costly and involved to pursue. This obstacle led the team to pivot and build their hydrophone around a commercially available MEMS microphone. “We had to come up with an inexpensive alternative without giving up performance, and this is what led us to build the design around a microphone, which to our knowledge is a novel approach,” Freeman explains.In collaboration with researchers at Tufts University, as well as industry partners SeaLandAire Technologies and Navmar Applied Sciences Corp., the team made the hydrophone by encapsulating the MEMS microphone in a polymer with low permeability to water while leaving an air cavity around the microphone’s diaphragm (the component of the microphone that vibrates in response to sound waves). One key challenge that they faced was the possibility of losing too much signal to the packaging and the air cavity around the MEMS microphone. After a substantial amount of simulation, design iterations, and testing, the team found that the signal lost from incorporating air into the device was compensated for by the very high sensitivity of the MEMS microphone itself. As a result, the device was able to perform at a sensitivity comparable to high-end hydrophones at depths down to 400 feet and temperatures as low as 40 degrees Fahrenheit. To date, the collaborative effort has involved computational modeling, system electronics design and fabrication, prototype unit manufacturing, and calibrator and pool testing.In July, eight researchers traveled to Seneca Lake in New York to test a variety of devices. The hydrophones were lowered to increasing depths in the water — 100 feet at first, then incrementally lower down to 400 feet. At each depth, acoustic signals of varying frequencies were transmitted for the instrument to record. The transmitted signals were calibrated to a known level so they could then measure the actual sensitivity of the hydrophones across different frequencies. When the sound hits the hydrophone’s diaphragm, it generates an electrical signal that is amplified, digitized, and transmitted to a recording device at the surface for post-test data analysis. The team utilized both commercial underwater cables as well as Lincoln Laboratory’s fiber-based sensing arrays.”This was our first field test in deep water, and therefore it was an important milestone in demonstrating the ability to operate in a realistic environment, rather than the water chambers that we’d been using,” Freeman says. “Our hope was that the performance of our device would match what we’ve seen in our water tank, where we tested at high hydrostatic pressure across a range of frequencies. In other words, we hoped this test would provide results that confirm our predictions based on lab-based testing.”The test results were excellent, showing that the sensitivity and the signal-to-noise was within a few decibels of the quietest ocean state, known as sea state zero. Moreover, this performance was achieved in deep water, at 400 feet, and with very low temperatures, around 40 degrees Fahrenheit.The prototype hydrophone has applications across a wide variety of commercial and military use-cases owing to its small size, efficient power draw, and low cost.”We’re in discussion with the Department of War about transitioning this technology to the U.S. government and industry,” says Freeman. “There is still some room for optimizing the design, but we think we’ve demonstrated that this hydrophone has the key benefits of being robust, high performance, and very low cost.” More

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    MIT senior turns waste from the fishing industry into biodegradable plastic

    Sometimes the answers to seemingly intractable environmental problems are found in nature itself. Take the growing challenge of plastic waste. Jacqueline Prawira, an MIT senior in the Department of Materials Science and Engineering (DMSE), has developed biodegradable, plastic-like materials from fish offal, as featured in a recent segment on the CBS show “The Visioneers with Zay Harding.” “We basically made plastics to be too good at their job. That also means the environment doesn’t know what to do with this, because they simply won’t degrade,” Prawira told Harding. “And now we’re literally drowning in plastic. By 2050, plastics are expected to outweigh fish in the ocean.” “The Visioneers” regularly highlights environmental innovators. The episode featuring Prawira premiered during a special screening at Climate Week NYC on Sept. 24.Her inspiration came from the Asian fish market her family visits. Once the fish they buy are butchered, the scales are typically discarded. “But I also started noticing they’re actually fairly strong. They’re thin, somewhat flexible, and pretty lightweight, too, for their strength,” Prawira says. “And that got me thinking: Well, what other material has these properties? Plastics.” She transformed this waste product into a transparent, thin-film material that can be used for disposable products such as grocery bags, packaging, and utensils. Both her fish-scale material and a composite she developed don’t just mimic plastic — they address one of its biggest flaws. “If you put them in composting environments, [they] will degrade on their own naturally without needing much, if any, external help,” Prawira says. This isn’t Prawira’s first environmental innovation. Working in DMSE Professor Yet-Ming Chiang’s lab, she helped develop a low-carbon process for making cement — the world’s most widely used construction material, and a major emitter of carbon dioxide. The process, called silicate subtraction, enables compounds to form at lower temperatures, cutting fossil fuel use. Prawira and her co-inventors in the Chiang lab are also using the method to extract valuable lithium with zero waste. The process is patented and is being commercialized through the startup Rock Zero. For her achievements, Prawira recently received the Barry Goldwater Scholarship, awarded to undergraduates pursuing careers in science, mathematics, or engineering. In her “Visioneers” interview, she shared her hope for more sustainable ways of living. “I’m hoping that we can have daily lives that can be more in sync with the environment,” Prawira said. “So you don’t always have to choose between the convenience of daily life and having to help protect the environment.” More

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    3 Questions: How AI is helping us monitor and support vulnerable ecosystems

    A recent study from Oregon State University estimated that more than 3,500 animal species are at risk of extinction because of factors including habitat alterations, natural resources being overexploited, and climate change.To better understand these changes and protect vulnerable wildlife, conservationists like MIT PhD student and Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) researcher Justin Kay are developing computer vision algorithms that carefully monitor animal populations. A member of the lab of MIT Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science assistant professor and CSAIL principal investigator Sara Beery, Kay is currently working on tracking salmon in the Pacific Northwest, where they provide crucial nutrients to predators like birds and bears, while managing the population of prey, like bugs.With all that wildlife data, though, researchers have lots of information to sort through and many AI models to choose from to analyze it all. Kay and his colleagues at CSAIL and the University of Massachusetts Amherst are developing AI methods that make this data-crunching process much more efficient, including a new approach called “consensus-driven active model selection” (or “CODA”) that helps conservationists choose which AI model to use. Their work was named a Highlight Paper at the International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV) in October.That research was supported, in part, by the National Science Foundation, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab (J-WAFS). Here, Kay discusses this project, among other conservation efforts.Q: In your paper, you pose the question of which AI models will perform the best on a particular dataset. With as many as 1.9 million pre-trained models available in the HuggingFace Models repository alone, how does CODA help us address that challenge?A: Until recently, using AI for data analysis has typically meant training your own model. This requires significant effort to collect and annotate a representative training dataset, as well as iteratively train and validate models. You also need a certain technical skill set to run and modify AI training code. The way people interact with AI is changing, though — in particular, there are now millions of publicly available pre-trained models that can perform a variety of predictive tasks very well. This potentially enables people to use AI to analyze their data without developing their own model, simply by downloading an existing model with the capabilities they need. But this poses a new challenge: Which model, of the millions available, should they use to analyze their data? Typically, answering this model selection question also requires you to spend a lot of time collecting and annotating a large dataset, albeit for testing models rather than training them. This is especially true for real applications where user needs are specific, data distributions are imbalanced and constantly changing, and model performance may be inconsistent across samples. Our goal with CODA was to substantially reduce this effort. We do this by making the data annotation process “active.” Instead of requiring users to bulk-annotate a large test dataset all at once, in active model selection we make the process interactive, guiding users to annotate the most informative data points in their raw data. This is remarkably effective, often requiring users to annotate as few as 25 examples to identify the best model from their set of candidates. We’re very excited about CODA offering a new perspective on how to best utilize human effort in the development and deployment of machine-learning (ML) systems. As AI models become more commonplace, our work emphasizes the value of focusing effort on robust evaluation pipelines, rather than solely on training.Q: You applied the CODA method to classifying wildlife in images. Why did it perform so well, and what role can systems like this have in monitoring ecosystems in the future?A: One key insight was that when considering a collection of candidate AI models, the consensus of all of their predictions is more informative than any individual model’s predictions. This can be seen as a sort of “wisdom of the crowd:” On average, pooling the votes of all models gives you a decent prior over what the labels of individual data points in your raw dataset should be. Our approach with CODA is based on estimating a “confusion matrix” for each AI model — given the true label for some data point is class X, what is the probability that an individual model predicts class X, Y, or Z? This creates informative dependencies between all of the candidate models, the categories you want to label, and the unlabeled points in your dataset.Consider an example application where you are a wildlife ecologist who has just collected a dataset containing potentially hundreds of thousands of images from cameras deployed in the wild. You want to know what species are in these images, a time-consuming task that computer vision classifiers can help automate. You are trying to decide which species classification model to run on your data. If you have labeled 50 images of tigers so far, and some model has performed well on those 50 images, you can be pretty confident it will perform well on the remainder of the (currently unlabeled) images of tigers in your raw dataset as well. You also know that when that model predicts some image contains a tiger, it is likely to be correct, and therefore that any model that predicts a different label for that image is more likely to be wrong. You can use all these interdependencies to construct probabilistic estimates of each model’s confusion matrix, as well as a probability distribution over which model has the highest accuracy on the overall dataset. These design choices allow us to make more informed choices over which data points to label and ultimately are the reason why CODA performs model selection much more efficiently than past work.There are also a lot of exciting possibilities for building on top of our work. We think there may be even better ways of constructing informative priors for model selection based on domain expertise — for instance, if it is already known that one model performs exceptionally well on some subset of classes or poorly on others. There are also opportunities to extend the framework to support more complex machine-learning tasks and more sophisticated probabilistic models of performance. We hope our work can provide inspiration and a starting point for other researchers to keep pushing the state of the art.Q: You work in the Beerylab, led by Sara Beery, where researchers are combining the pattern-recognition capabilities of machine-learning algorithms with computer vision technology to monitor wildlife. What are some other ways your team is tracking and analyzing the natural world, beyond CODA?A: The lab is a really exciting place to work, and new projects are emerging all the time. We have ongoing projects monitoring coral reefs with drones, re-identifying individual elephants over time, and fusing multi-modal Earth observation data from satellites and in-situ cameras, just to name a few. Broadly, we look at emerging technologies for biodiversity monitoring and try to understand where the data analysis bottlenecks are, and develop new computer vision and machine-learning approaches that address those problems in a widely applicable way. It’s an exciting way of approaching problems that sort of targets the “meta-questions” underlying particular data challenges we face. The computer vision algorithms I’ve worked on that count migrating salmon in underwater sonar video are examples of that work. We often deal with shifting data distributions, even as we try to construct the most diverse training datasets we can. We always encounter something new when we deploy a new camera, and this tends to degrade the performance of computer vision algorithms. This is one instance of a general problem in machine learning called domain adaptation, but when we tried to apply existing domain adaptation algorithms to our fisheries data we realized there were serious limitations in how existing algorithms were trained and evaluated. We were able to develop a new domain adaptation framework, published earlier this year in Transactions on Machine Learning Research, that addressed these limitations and led to advancements in fish counting, and even self-driving and spacecraft analysis.One line of work that I’m particularly excited about is understanding how to better develop and analyze the performance of predictive ML algorithms in the context of what they are actually used for. Usually, the outputs from some computer vision algorithm — say, bounding boxes around animals in images — are not actually the thing that people care about, but rather a means to an end to answer a larger problem — say, what species live here, and how is that changing over time? We have been working on methods to analyze predictive performance in this context and reconsider the ways that we input human expertise into ML systems with this in mind. CODA was one example of this, where we showed that we could actually consider the ML models themselves as fixed and build a statistical framework to understand their performance very efficiently. We have been working recently on similar integrated analyses combining ML predictions with multi-stage prediction pipelines, as well as ecological statistical models. The natural world is changing at unprecedented rates and scales, and being able to quickly move from scientific hypotheses or management questions to data-driven answers is more important than ever for protecting ecosystems and the communities that depend on them. Advancements in AI can play an important role, but we need to think critically about the ways that we design, train, and evaluate algorithms in the context of these very real challenges. More

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    Over 1,000 MIT students inspired to work toward climate solutions

    Recently, more than 1,000 MIT students stepped into the shoes of global decision-makers by trying out En-ROADS, a simulation tool developed to test climate policies, explore solutions, and envision a cleaner and safer environmental future.MIT is committed to climate action, and this year’s new student orientation showcased that commitment. For the first time ever, incoming Leaders for Global Operations (LGO), Executive MBA, Sloan Fellow MBA, MBA, and undergraduate students all explored the capabilities of En-ROADS.“The goal is for MIT to become one of the world’s most prolific, collaborative, and interdisciplinary sources of technological, behavioral, and policy solutions for the global climate challenge over the next decade,” MIT Provost Anantha P. Chandrakasan told an audience of about 300 undergraduates from the Class of 2029. “It is something we need to do urgently, and today is your opportunity to play a role in that bold mission.”Connecting passion with science for changeIn group workshop sessions, students collaborated to create a world in which global warming stays well below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels — the goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Backed by the latest science, the En-ROADS simulator let them explore firsthand how policies like carbon pricing and clean energy investments affect our climate, economy, and health. Over 450 incoming MBA students even role-played as delegates at a global climate summit conference, tasked with negotiating a global agreement to address the harm caused by climate change.For first-year MBA student Allison Somuk, who played the role of President Xi Jinping of China, the workshop was not only eye-opening about climate, but also altered how she plans to approach her future work and advocacy.“Before the simulation, I didn’t have data on climate change, so I was surprised to see how close we are to catastrophic temperature increases. What surprised me most was how difficult it was to slow that trajectory. It required significant action and compromise from nearly every sector, not just a few. As someone passionate about improving maternal health care in developing nations, my view of contributing factors has broadened. I now see how maternal health may be affected by a larger system where climate policy decisions directly affect women’s health outcomes.”MIT Sloan Research Affiliate Andrew Jones, who is also executive director and co-founder of Climate Interactive and co-creator of the En-ROADS tool, presented several sessions during orientation. Looking back on the week, he found the experience personally rewarding.  “Engaging with hundreds of students, I was inspired by the powerful alignment between their passion for climate action and MIT’s increased commitment to delivering on climate goals. This is a pivotal moment for breakthroughs on our campus.”Other presenters included Jennifer Graham, MIT Sustainability Initiative senior associate director; Jason Jay, MIT Sustainability Initiative director; Krystal Noiseux, MIT Climate Pathways Project associate director; Bethany Patten, MIT Climate Policy Center executive director; and John Sterman, Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management, professor in the MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, and director of the MIT System Dynamics Group.Chris Rabe, the MIT Climate Project’s Education Program director, was impressed, but not surprised, by how much students learned so quickly as they worked together to solve the problem with En-ROADS.“By integrating reflection, emotional dynamics, multi-generational perspectives, group work, and inquiry, the En-ROADS simulation provides an ideal foundation for first-year students to explore the breadth of climate and sustainability opportunities at MIT. In the process, students came to recognize the many levers and multi-solving approaches required to address the complex challenges of climate change.”Inspiring climate leadersThe En-ROADS workshops were a true team effort, made possible with the help of senior staff at MIT Sloan School of Management and the MBA program office, and members of the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative, Climate Pathways Project, Climate Policy Center, the Climate Project, Office of the First Year, and entire undergraduate Orientation team.“Altogether, over a thousand of the newest members of the MIT community have now had a chance to learn for themselves about the climate crisis,” says Sterman, “and what we can do to create a healthier, safer, more prosperous, and more sustainable world — and how they can get involved to bring that world into being, even as first-year undergrads and MBAs.” By the end of the workshops, the students’ spirits were buoyed. They all had successfully found ways to keep global warming to below 2 C.  When asked, “What would you love about being part of this new future you’ve created?,”  a more positive, optimistic word cloud came into view. Answers included:breathing cleaner air;giving my children a better and safer environment;my hometown would not be flooded constantly;rich marine life and protection of reefs;exciting, new clean industries;increased socioeconomic equality; andproof that we as a global community can work together to save ourselves. First-year MBA student Ruby Eisenbud sums up the sentiment many new MIT students came away with after their workshop.“Coming to Sloan, one of the questions on my mind was: How can we, as future leaders, make a positive impact related to climate change? While En-ROADS is a simulation, it felt like we experienced, in the smallest way, what it could be like to be a leader navigating the diverging interests of all stakeholders involved in mitigating the impacts of the climate crisis. While the simulation prompted us to face the difficult reality of climate change, it also reinforced my motivation to emphasize climate in my work at Sloan and beyond.” More

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    Book reviews technologies aiming to remove carbon from the atmosphere

    Two leading experts in the field of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) — Howard J. Herzog, a senior research engineer in the MIT Energy Initiative, and Niall Mac Dowell, a professor in energy systems engineering at Imperial College London — explore methods for removing carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere in their new book, “Carbon Removal.” Published in October, the book is part of the Essential Knowledge series from the MIT Press, which consists of volumes “synthesizing specialized subject matter for nonspecialists” and includes Herzog’s 2018 book, “Carbon Capture.”Burning fossil fuels, as well as other human activities, cause the release of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere, where it acts like a blanket that warms the Earth, resulting in climate change. Much attention has focused on mitigation technologies that reduce emissions, but in their book, Herzog and Mac Dowell have turned their attention to “carbon dioxide removal” (CDR), an approach that removes carbon already present in the atmosphere.In this new volume, the authors explain how CO2 naturally moves into and out of the atmosphere and present a brief history of carbon removal as a concept for dealing with climate change. They also describe the full range of “pathways” that have been proposed for removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Those pathways include engineered systems designed for “direct air capture” (DAC), as well as various “nature-based” approaches that call for planting trees or taking steps to enhance removal by biomass or the oceans. The book offers easily accessible explanations of the fundamental science and engineering behind each approach.The authors compare the “quality” of the different pathways based on the following metrics:Accounting. For public acceptance of any carbon-removal strategy, the authors note, the developers need to get the accounting right — and that’s not always easy. “If you’re going to spend money to get CO2 out of the atmosphere, you want to get paid for doing it,” notes Herzog. It can be tricky to measure how much you have removed, because there’s a lot of CO2 going in and out of the atmosphere all the time. Also, if your approach involves, say, burning fossil fuels, you must subtract the amount of CO2 that’s emitted from the total amount you claim to have removed. Then there’s the timing of the removal. With a DAC device, the removal happens right now, and the removed CO2 can be measured. “But if I plant a tree, it’s going to remove CO2 for decades. Is that equivalent to removing it right now?” Herzog queries. How to take that factor into account hasn’t yet been resolved.Permanence. Different approaches keep the CO2 out of the atmosphere for different durations of time. How long is long enough? As the authors explain, this is one of the biggest issues, especially with nature-based solutions, where events such as wildfires or pestilence or land-use changes can release the stored CO2 back into the atmosphere. How do we deal with that?Cost. Cost is another key factor. Using a DAC device to remove CO2 costs far more than planting trees, but it yields immediate removal of a measurable amount of CO2 that can then be locked away forever. How does one monetize that trade-off?Additionality. “You’re doing this project, but would what you’re doing have been done anyway?” asks Herzog. “Is your effort additional to business as usual?” This question comes into play with many of the nature-based approaches involving trees, soils, and so on.Permitting and governance. These issues are especially important — and complicated — with approaches that involve doing things in the ocean. In addition, Herzog points out that some CCS projects could also achieve carbon removal, but they would have a hard time getting permits to build the pipelines and other needed infrastructure.The authors conclude that none of the CDR strategies now being proposed is a clear winner on all the metrics. However, they stress that carbon removal has the potential to play an important role in meeting our climate change goals — not by replacing our emissions-reduction efforts, but rather by supplementing them. However, as Herzog and Mac Dowell make clear in their book, many challenges must be addressed to move CDR from today’s speculation to deployment at scale, and the book supports the wider discussion about how to move forward. Indeed, the authors have fulfilled their stated goal: “to provide an objective analysis of the opportunities and challenges for CDR and to separate myth from reality.” More