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    What should countries do with their nuclear waste?

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    One of the highest-risk components of nuclear waste is iodine-129 (I-129), which stays radioactive for millions of years and accumulates in human thyroids when ingested. In the U.S., nuclear waste containing I-129 is scheduled to be disposed of in deep underground repositories, which scientists say will sufficiently isolate it.Meanwhile, across the globe, France routinely releases low-level radioactive effluents containing iodine-129 and other radionuclides into the ocean. France recycles its spent nuclear fuel, and the reprocessing plant discharges about 153 kilograms of iodine-129 each year, under the French regulatory limit.Is dilution a good solution? What’s the best way to handle spent nuclear fuel? A new study by MIT researchers and their collaborators at national laboratories quantifies I-129 release under three different scenarios: the U.S. approach of disposing spent fuel directly in deep underground repositories, the French approach of dilution and release, and an approach that uses filters to capture I-129 and disposes of them in shallow underground waste repositories.The researchers found France’s current practice of reprocessing releases about 90 percent of the waste’s I-129 into the biosphere. They found low levels of I-129 in ocean water around France and the U.K.’s former reprocessing sites, including the English Channel and North Sea. Although the low level of I-129 in the water in Europe is not considered to pose health risks, the U.S. approach of deep underground disposal leads to far less I-129 being released, the researchers found.The researchers also investigated the effect of environmental regulations and technologies related to I-129 management, to illuminate the tradeoffs associated with different approaches around the world.“Putting these pieces together to provide a comprehensive view of Iodine-129 is important,” says MIT Assistant Professor Haruko Wainwright, a first author on the paper who holds a joint appointment in the departments of Nuclear Science and Engineering and of Civil and Environmental Engineering. “There are scientists that spend their lives trying to clean up iodine-129 at contaminated sites. These scientists are sometimes shocked to learn some countries are releasing so much iodine-129. This work also provides a life-cycle perspective. We’re not just looking at final disposal and solid waste, but also when and where release is happening. It puts all the pieces together.”MIT graduate student Kate Whiteaker SM ’24 led many of the analyses with Wainwright. Their co-authors are Hansell Gonzalez-Raymat, Miles Denham, Ian Pegg, Daniel Kaplan, Nikolla Qafoku, David Wilson, Shelly Wilson, and Carol Eddy-Dilek. The study appears today in Nature Sustainability.Managing wasteIodine-129 is often a key focus for scientists and engineers as they conduct safety assessments of nuclear waste disposal sites around the world. It has a half-life of 15.7 million years, high environmental mobility, and could potentially cause cancers if ingested. The U.S. sets a strict limit on how much I-129 can be released and how much I-129 can be in drinking water — 5.66 nanograms per liter, the lowest such level of any radionuclides.“Iodine-129 is very mobile, so it is usually the highest-dose contributor in safety assessments,” Wainwright says.For the study, the researchers calculated the release of I-129 across three different waste management strategies by combining data from current and former reprocessing sites as well as repository assessment models and simulations.The authors defined the environmental impact as the release of I-129 into the biosphere that humans could be exposed to, as well as its concentrations in surface water. They measured I-129 release per the total electrical energy generated by a 1-gigawatt power plant over one year, denoted as kg/GWe.y.Under the U.S. approach of deep underground disposal with barrier systems, assuming the barrier canisters fail at 1,000 years (a conservative estimate), the researchers found 2.14 x 10–8 kg/GWe.y of I-129 would be released between 1,000 and 1 million years from today.They estimate that 4.51 kg/GWe.y of I-129, or 91 percent of the total, would be released into the biosphere in the scenario where fuel is reprocessed and the effluents are diluted and released. About 3.3 percent of I-129 is captured by gas filters, which are then disposed of in shallow subsurfaces as low-level radioactive waste. A further 5.2 percent remains in the waste stream of the reprocessing plant, which is then disposed of as high-level radioactive waste.If the waste is recycled with gas filters to directly capture I-129, 0.05 kg/GWe.y of the I-129 is released, while 94 percent is disposed of in the low-level disposal sites. For shallow disposal, some kind of human disruption and intrusion is assumed to occur after government or institutional control expires (typically 100-1,000 years). That results in a potential release of the disposed amount to the environment after the control period.Overall, the current practice of recycling spent nuclear fuel releases the majority of I-129 into the environment today, while the direct disposal of spent fuel releases around 1/100,000,000 that amount over 1 million years. When the gas filters are used to capture I-129, the majority of I-129 goes to shallow underground repositories, which could be accidentally released through human intrusion down the line.The researchers also quantified the concentration of I-129 in different surface waters near current and former fuel reprocessing facilities, including the English Channel and the North Sea near reprocessing plants in France and U.K. They also analyzed the U.S. Columbia River downstream of a site in Washington state where material for nuclear weapons was produced during the Cold War, and they studied a similar site in South Carolina. The researchers found far higher concentrations of I-129 within the South Carolina site, where the low-level radioactive effluents were released far from major rivers and hence resulted in less dilution in the environment.“We wanted to quantify the environmental factors and the impact of dilution, which in this case affected concentrations more than discharge amounts,” Wainwright says. “Someone might take our results to say dilution still works: It’s reducing the contaminant concentration and spreading it over a large area. On the other hand, in the U.S., imperfect disposal has led to locally higher surface water concentrations. This provides a cautionary tale that disposal could concentrate contaminants, and should be carefully designed to protect local communities.”Fuel cycles and policyWainwright doesn’t want her findings to dissuade countries from recycling nuclear fuel. She says countries like Japan plan to use increased filtration to capture I-129 when they reprocess spent fuel. Filters with I-129 can be disposed of as low-level waste under U.S. regulations.“Since I-129 is an internal carcinogen without strong penetrating radiation, shallow underground disposal would be appropriate in line with other hazardous waste,” Wainwright says. “The history of environmental protection since the 1960s is shifting from waste dumping and release to isolation. But there are still industries that release waste into the air and water. We have seen that they often end up causing issues in our daily life — such as CO2, mercury, PFAS and others — especially when there are many sources or when bioaccumulation happens. The nuclear community has been leading in waste isolation strategies and technologies since the 1950s. These efforts should be further enhanced and accelerated. But at the same time, if someone does not choose nuclear energy because of waste issues, it would encourage other industries with much lower environmental standards.”The work was supported by MIT’s Climate Fast Forward Faculty Fund and the U.S. Department of Energy. More

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      New prediction model could improve the reliability of fusion power plants

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      Tokamaks are machines that are meant to hold and harness the power of the sun. These fusion machines use powerful magnets to contain a plasma hotter than the sun’s core and push the plasma’s atoms to fuse and release energy. If tokamaks can operate safely and efficiently, the machines could one day provide clean and limitless fusion energy.Today, there are a number of experimental tokamaks in operation around the world, with more underway. Most are small-scale research machines built to investigate how the devices can spin up plasma and harness its energy. One of the challenges that tokamaks face is how to safely and reliably turn off a plasma current that is circulating at speeds of up to 100 kilometers per second, at temperatures of over 100 million degrees Celsius.Such “rampdowns” are necessary when a plasma becomes unstable. To prevent the plasma from further disrupting and potentially damaging the device’s interior, operators ramp down the plasma current. But occasionally the rampdown itself can destabilize the plasma. In some machines, rampdowns have caused scrapes and scarring to the tokamak’s interior — minor damage that still requires considerable time and resources to repair.Now, scientists at MIT have developed a method to predict how plasma in a tokamak will behave during a rampdown. The team combined machine-learning tools with a physics-based model of plasma dynamics to simulate a plasma’s behavior and any instabilities that may arise as the plasma is ramped down and turned off. The researchers trained and tested the new model on plasma data from an experimental tokamak in Switzerland. They found the method quickly learned how plasma would evolve as it was tuned down in different ways. What’s more, the method achieved a high level of accuracy using a relatively small amount of data. This training efficiency is promising, given that each experimental run of a tokamak is expensive and quality data is limited as a result.The new model, which the team highlights this week in an open-access Nature Communications paper, could improve the safety and reliability of future fusion power plants.“For fusion to be a useful energy source it’s going to have to be reliable,” says lead author Allen Wang, a graduate student in aeronautics and astronautics and a member of the Disruption Group at MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center (PSFC). “To be reliable, we need to get good at managing our plasmas.”The study’s MIT co-authors include PSFC Principal Research Scientist and Disruptions Group leader Cristina Rea, and members of the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems (LIDS) Oswin So, Charles Dawson, and Professor Chuchu Fan, along with Mark (Dan) Boyer of Commonwealth Fusion Systems and collaborators from the Swiss Plasma Center in Switzerland.“A delicate balance”Tokamaks are experimental fusion devices that were first built in the Soviet Union in the 1950s. The device gets its name from a Russian acronym that translates to a “toroidal chamber with magnetic coils.” Just as its name describes, a tokamak is toroidal, or donut-shaped, and uses powerful magnets to contain and spin up a gas to temperatures and energies high enough that atoms in the resulting plasma can fuse and release energy.Today, tokamak experiments are relatively low-energy in scale, with few approaching the size and output needed to generate safe, reliable, usable energy. Disruptions in experimental, low-energy tokamaks are generally not an issue. But as fusion machines scale up to grid-scale dimensions, controlling much higher-energy plasmas at all phases will be paramount to maintaining a machine’s safe and efficient operation.“Uncontrolled plasma terminations, even during rampdown, can generate intense heat fluxes damaging the internal walls,” Wang notes. “Quite often, especially with the high-performance plasmas, rampdowns actually can push the plasma closer to some instability limits. So, it’s a delicate balance. And there’s a lot of focus now on how to manage instabilities so that we can routinely and reliably take these plasmas and safely power them down. And there are relatively few studies done on how to do that well.”Bringing down the pulseWang and his colleagues developed a model to predict how a plasma will behave during tokamak rampdown. While they could have simply applied machine-learning tools such as a neural network to learn signs of instabilities in plasma data, “you would need an ungodly amount of data” for such tools to discern the very subtle and ephemeral changes in extremely high-temperature, high-energy plasmas, Wang says.Instead, the researchers paired a neural network with an existing model that simulates plasma dynamics according to the fundamental rules of physics. With this combination of machine learning and a physics-based plasma simulation, the team found that only a couple hundred pulses at low performance, and a small handful of pulses at high performance, were sufficient to train and validate the new model.The data they used for the new study came from the TCV, the Swiss “variable configuration tokamak” operated by the Swiss Plasma Center at EPFL (the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne). The TCV is a small experimental fusion experimental device that is used for research purposes, often as test bed for next-generation device solutions. Wang used the data from several hundred TCV plasma pulses that included properties of the plasma such as its temperature and energies during each pulse’s ramp-up, run, and ramp-down. He trained the new model on this data, then tested it and found it was able to accurately predict the plasma’s evolution given the initial conditions of a particular tokamak run.The researchers also developed an algorithm to translate the model’s predictions into practical “trajectories,” or plasma-managing instructions that a tokamak controller can automatically carry out to for instance adjust the magnets or temperature maintain the plasma’s stability. They implemented the algorithm on several TCV runs and found that it produced trajectories that safely ramped down a plasma pulse, in some cases faster and without disruptions compared to runs without the new method.“At some point the plasma will always go away, but we call it a disruption when the plasma goes away at high energy. Here, we ramped the energy down to nothing,” Wang notes. “We did it a number of times. And we did things much better across the board. So, we had statistical confidence that we made things better.”The work was supported in part by Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), an MIT spinout that intends to build the world’s first compact, grid-scale fusion power plant. The company is developing a demo tokamak, SPARC, designed to produce net-energy plasma, meaning that it should generate more energy than it takes to heat up the plasma. Wang and his colleagues are working with CFS on ways that the new prediction model and tools like it can better predict plasma behavior and prevent costly disruptions to enable safe and reliable fusion power.“We’re trying to tackle the science questions to make fusion routinely useful,” Wang says. “What we’ve done here is the start of what is still a long journey. But I think we’ve made some nice progress.”Additional support for the research came from the framework of the EUROfusion Consortium, via the Euratom Research and Training Program and funded by the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research, and Innovation. More

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      in Energy

      MIT’s work with Idaho National Laboratory advances America’s nuclear industry

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      At the center of nuclear reactors across the United States, a new type of chromium-coated fuel is being used to make the reactors more efficient and more resistant to accidents. The fuel is one of many innovations sprung from collaboration between researchers at MIT and the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) — a relationship that has altered the trajectory of the country’s nuclear industry.Amid renewed excitement around nuclear energy in America, MIT’s research community is working to further develop next-generation fuels, accelerate the deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs), and enable the first nuclear reactor in space.Researchers at MIT and INL have worked closely for decades, and the collaboration takes many forms, including joint research efforts, student and postdoc internships, and a standing agreement that lets INL employees spend extended periods on MIT’s campus researching and teaching classes. MIT is also a founding member of the Battelle Energy Alliance, which has managed the Idaho National Laboratory for the Department of Energy since 2005.The collaboration gives MIT’s community a chance to work on the biggest problems facing America’s nuclear industry while bolstering INL’s research infrastructure.“The Idaho National Laboratory is the lead lab for nuclear energy technology in the United States today — that’s why it’s essential that MIT works hand in hand with INL,” says Jacopo Buongiorno, the Battelle Energy Alliance Professor in Nuclear Science and Engineering at MIT. “Countless MIT students and postdocs have interned at INL over the years, and a memorandum of understanding that strengthened the collaboration between MIT and INL in 2019 has been extended twice.”Ian Waitz, MIT’s vice president for research, adds, “The strong collaborative history between MIT and the Idaho National Laboratory enables us to jointly contribute practical technologies to enable the growth of clean, safe nuclear energy. It’s a clear example of how rigorous collaboration across sectors, and among the nation’s top research facilities, can advance U.S. economic prosperity, health, and well-being.”Research with impactMuch of MIT’s joint research with INL involves tests and simulations of new nuclear materials, fuels, and instrumentation. One of the largest collaborations was part of a global push for more accident-tolerant fuels in the wake of the nuclear accident that followed the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Fukushima, Japan.In a series of studies involving INL and members of the nuclear energy industry, MIT researchers helped identify and evaluate alloy materials that could be deployed in the near term to not only bolster safety but also offer higher densities of fuel.“These new alloys can withstand much more challenging conditions during abnormal occurrences without reacting chemically with steam, which could result in hydrogen explosions during accidents,” explains Buongiorno, who is also the director of science and technology at MIT’s Nuclear Reactor Laboratory and the director of MIT’s Center for Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems. “The fuels can take much more abuse without breaking apart in the reactor, resulting in a higher safety margin.”The fuels tested at MIT were eventually adopted by power plants across the U.S., starting with the Byron Clean Energy Center in Ogle County, Illinois.“We’re also developing new materials, fuels, and instrumentation,” Buongiorno says. “People don’t just come to MIT and say, ‘I have this idea, evaluate it for me.’ We collaborate with industry and national labs to develop the new ideas together, and then we put them to the test,  reproducing the environment in which these materials and fuels would operate in commercial power reactors. That capability is quite unique.”Another major collaboration was led by Koroush Shirvan, MIT’s Atlantic Richfield Career Development Professor in Energy Studies. Shirvan’s team analyzed the costs associated with different reactor designs, eventually developing an open-source tool to help industry leaders evaluate the feasibility of different approaches.“The reason we’re not building a single nuclear reactor in the U.S. right now is cost and financial risk,” Shirvan says. “The projects have gone over budget by a factor of two and their schedule has lengthened by a factor of 1.5, so we’ve been doing a lot of work assessing the risk drivers. There’s also a lot of different types of reactors proposed, so we’ve looked at their cost potential as well and how those costs change if you can mass manufacture them.”Other INL-supported research of Shirvan’s involves exploring new manufacturing methods for nuclear fuels and testing materials for use in a nuclear reactor on the surface of the moon.“You want materials that are lightweight for these nuclear reactors because you have to send them to space, but there isn’t much data around how those light materials perform in nuclear environments,” Shirvan says.People and progressEvery summer, MIT students at every level travel to Idaho to conduct research in INL labs as interns.“It’s an example of our students getting access to cutting-edge research facilities,” Shirvan says.There are also several joint research appointments between the institutions. One such appointment is held by Sacit Cetiner, a distinguished scientist at INL who also currently runs the MIT and INL Joint Center for Reactor Instrumentation and Sensor Physics (CRISP) at MIT’s Nuclear Reactor Laboratory.CRISP focuses its research on key technology areas in the field of instrumentation and controls, which have long stymied the bottom line of nuclear power generation.“For the current light-water reactor fleet, operations and maintenance expenditures constitute a sizeable fraction of unit electricity generation cost,” says Cetiner. “In order to make advanced reactors economically competitive, it’s much more reasonable to address anticipated operational issues during the design phase. One such critical technology area is remote and autonomous operations. Working directly with INL, which manages the projects for the design and testing of several advanced reactors under a number of federal programs, gives our students, faculty, and researchers opportunities to make a real impact.”The sharing of experts helps strengthen MIT and the nation’s nuclear workforce overall.“MIT has a crucial role to play in advancing the country’s nuclear industry, whether that’s testing and developing new technologies or assessing the economic feasibility of new nuclear designs,” Buongiorno says. More

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      in Environment

      Simpler models can outperform deep learning at climate prediction

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      Environmental scientists are increasingly using enormous artificial intelligence models to make predictions about changes in weather and climate, but a new study by MIT researchers shows that bigger models are not always better.The team demonstrates that, in certain climate scenarios, much simpler, physics-based models can generate more accurate predictions than state-of-the-art deep-learning models.Their analysis also reveals that a benchmarking technique commonly used to evaluate machine-learning techniques for climate predictions can be distorted by natural variations in the data, like fluctuations in weather patterns. This could lead someone to believe a deep-learning model makes more accurate predictions when that is not the case.The researchers developed a more robust way of evaluating these techniques, which shows that, while simple models are more accurate when estimating regional surface temperatures, deep-learning approaches can be the best choice for estimating local rainfall.They used these results to enhance a simulation tool known as a climate emulator, which can rapidly simulate the effect of human activities onto a future climate.The researchers see their work as a “cautionary tale” about the risk of deploying large AI models for climate science. While deep-learning models have shown incredible success in domains such as natural language, climate science contains a proven set of physical laws and approximations, and the challenge becomes how to incorporate those into AI models.“We are trying to develop models that are going to be useful and relevant for the kinds of things that decision-makers need going forward when making climate policy choices. While it might be attractive to use the latest, big-picture machine-learning model on a climate problem, what this study shows is that stepping back and really thinking about the problem fundamentals is important and useful,” says study senior author Noelle Selin, a professor in the MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS) and the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS).Selin’s co-authors are lead author Björn Lütjens, a former EAPS postdoc who is now a research scientist at IBM Research; senior author Raffaele Ferrari, the Cecil and Ida Green Professor of Oceanography in EAPS and co-director of the Lorenz Center; and Duncan Watson-Parris, assistant professor at the University of California at San Diego. Selin and Ferrari are also co-principal investigators of the Bringing Computation to the Climate Challenge project, out of which this research emerged. The paper appears today in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.Comparing emulatorsBecause the Earth’s climate is so complex, running a state-of-the-art climate model to predict how pollution levels will impact environmental factors like temperature can take weeks on the world’s most powerful supercomputers.Scientists often create climate emulators, simpler approximations of a state-of-the art climate model, which are faster and more accessible. A policymaker could use a climate emulator to see how alternative assumptions on greenhouse gas emissions would affect future temperatures, helping them develop regulations.But an emulator isn’t very useful if it makes inaccurate predictions about the local impacts of climate change. While deep learning has become increasingly popular for emulation, few studies have explored whether these models perform better than tried-and-true approaches.The MIT researchers performed such a study. They compared a traditional technique called linear pattern scaling (LPS) with a deep-learning model using a common benchmark dataset for evaluating climate emulators.Their results showed that LPS outperformed deep-learning models on predicting nearly all parameters they tested, including temperature and precipitation.“Large AI methods are very appealing to scientists, but they rarely solve a completely new problem, so implementing an existing solution first is necessary to find out whether the complex machine-learning approach actually improves upon it,” says Lütjens.Some initial results seemed to fly in the face of the researchers’ domain knowledge. The powerful deep-learning model should have been more accurate when making predictions about precipitation, since those data don’t follow a linear pattern.They found that the high amount of natural variability in climate model runs can cause the deep learning model to perform poorly on unpredictable long-term oscillations, like El Niño/La Niña. This skews the benchmarking scores in favor of LPS, which averages out those oscillations.Constructing a new evaluationFrom there, the researchers constructed a new evaluation with more data that address natural climate variability. With this new evaluation, the deep-learning model performed slightly better than LPS for local precipitation, but LPS was still more accurate for temperature predictions.“It is important to use the modeling tool that is right for the problem, but in order to do that you also have to set up the problem the right way in the first place,” Selin says.Based on these results, the researchers incorporated LPS into a climate emulation platform to predict local temperature changes in different emission scenarios.“We are not advocating that LPS should always be the goal. It still has limitations. For instance, LPS doesn’t predict variability or extreme weather events,” Ferrari adds.Rather, they hope their results emphasize the need to develop better benchmarking techniques, which could provide a fuller picture of which climate emulation technique is best suited for a particular situation.“With an improved climate emulation benchmark, we could use more complex machine-learning methods to explore problems that are currently very hard to address, like the impacts of aerosols or estimations of extreme precipitation,” Lütjens says.Ultimately, more accurate benchmarking techniques will help ensure policymakers are making decisions based on the best available information.The researchers hope others build on their analysis, perhaps by studying additional improvements to climate emulation methods and benchmarks. Such research could explore impact-oriented metrics like drought indicators and wildfire risks, or new variables like regional wind speeds.This research is funded, in part, by Schmidt Sciences, LLC, and is part of the MIT Climate Grand Challenges team for “Bringing Computation to the Climate Challenge.” More

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      in Environment

      Eco-driving measures could significantly reduce vehicle emissions

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      Any motorist who has ever waited through multiple cycles for a traffic light to turn green knows how annoying signalized intersections can be. But sitting at intersections isn’t just a drag on drivers’ patience — unproductive vehicle idling could contribute as much as 15 percent of the carbon dioxide emissions from U.S. land transportation.A large-scale modeling study led by MIT researchers reveals that eco-driving measures, which can involve dynamically adjusting vehicle speeds to reduce stopping and excessive acceleration, could significantly reduce those CO2 emissions.Using a powerful artificial intelligence method called deep reinforcement learning, the researchers conducted an in-depth impact assessment of the factors affecting vehicle emissions in three major U.S. cities.Their analysis indicates that fully adopting eco-driving measures could cut annual city-wide intersection carbon emissions by 11 to 22 percent, without slowing traffic throughput or affecting vehicle and traffic safety.Even if only 10 percent of vehicles on the road employ eco-driving, it would result in 25 to 50 percent of the total reduction in CO2 emissions, the researchers found.In addition, dynamically optimizing speed limits at about 20 percent of intersections provides 70 percent of the total emission benefits. This indicates that eco-driving measures could be implemented gradually while still having measurable, positive impacts on mitigating climate change and improving public health.

      An animated GIF compares what 20% eco-driving adoption looks like to 100% eco-driving adoption.Image: Courtesy of the researchers

      “Vehicle-based control strategies like eco-driving can move the needle on climate change reduction. We’ve shown here that modern machine-learning tools, like deep reinforcement learning, can accelerate the kinds of analysis that support sociotechnical decision making. This is just the tip of the iceberg,” says senior author Cathy Wu, the Class of 1954 Career Development Associate Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering (CEE) and the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS) at MIT, and a member of the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems (LIDS).She is joined on the paper by lead author Vindula Jayawardana, an MIT graduate student; as well as MIT graduate students Ao Qu, Cameron Hickert, and Edgar Sanchez; MIT undergraduate Catherine Tang; Baptiste Freydt, a graduate student at ETH Zurich; and Mark Taylor and Blaine Leonard of the Utah Department of Transportation. The research appears in Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies.A multi-part modeling studyTraffic control measures typically call to mind fixed infrastructure, like stop signs and traffic signals. But as vehicles become more technologically advanced, it presents an opportunity for eco-driving, which is a catch-all term for vehicle-based traffic control measures like the use of dynamic speeds to reduce energy consumption.In the near term, eco-driving could involve speed guidance in the form of vehicle dashboards or smartphone apps. In the longer term, eco-driving could involve intelligent speed commands that directly control the acceleration of semi-autonomous and fully autonomous vehicles through vehicle-to-infrastructure communication systems.“Most prior work has focused on how to implement eco-driving. We shifted the frame to consider the question of should we implement eco-driving. If we were to deploy this technology at scale, would it make a difference?” Wu says.To answer that question, the researchers embarked on a multifaceted modeling study that would take the better part of four years to complete.They began by identifying 33 factors that influence vehicle emissions, including temperature, road grade, intersection topology, age of the vehicle, traffic demand, vehicle types, driver behavior, traffic signal timing, road geometry, etc.“One of the biggest challenges was making sure we were diligent and didn’t leave out any major factors,” Wu says.Then they used data from OpenStreetMap, U.S. geological surveys, and other sources to create digital replicas of more than 6,000 signalized intersections in three cities — Atlanta, San Francisco, and Los Angeles — and simulated more than a million traffic scenarios.The researchers used deep reinforcement learning to optimize each scenario for eco-driving to achieve the maximum emissions benefits.Reinforcement learning optimizes the vehicles’ driving behavior through trial-and-error interactions with a high-fidelity traffic simulator, rewarding vehicle behaviors that are more energy-efficient while penalizing those that are not.The researchers cast the problem as a decentralized cooperative multi-agent control problem, where the vehicles cooperate to achieve overall energy efficiency, even among non-participating vehicles, and they act in a decentralized manner, avoiding the need for costly communication between vehicles.However, training vehicle behaviors that generalize across diverse intersection traffic scenarios was a major challenge. The researchers observed that some scenarios are more similar to one another than others, such as scenarios with the same number of lanes or the same number of traffic signal phases.As such, the researchers trained separate reinforcement learning models for different clusters of traffic scenarios, yielding better emission benefits overall.But even with the help of AI, analyzing citywide traffic at the network level would be so computationally intensive it could take another decade to unravel, Wu says.Instead, they broke the problem down and solved each eco-driving scenario at the individual intersection level.“We carefully constrained the impact of eco-driving control at each intersection on neighboring intersections. In this way, we dramatically simplified the problem, which enabled us to perform this analysis at scale, without introducing unknown network effects,” she says.Significant emissions benefitsWhen they analyzed the results, the researchers found that full adoption of eco-driving could result in intersection emissions reductions of between 11 and 22 percent.These benefits differ depending on the layout of a city’s streets. A denser city like San Francisco has less room to implement eco-driving between intersections, offering a possible explanation for reduced emission savings, while Atlanta could see greater benefits given its higher speed limits.Even if only 10 percent of vehicles employ eco-driving, a city could still realize 25 to 50 percent of the total emissions benefit because of car-following dynamics: Non-eco-driving vehicles would follow controlled eco-driving vehicles as they optimize speed to pass smoothly through intersections, reducing their carbon emissions as well.In some cases, eco-driving could also increase vehicle throughput by minimizing emissions. However, Wu cautions that increasing throughput could result in more drivers taking to the roads, reducing emissions benefits.And while their analysis of widely used safety metrics known as surrogate safety measures, such as time to collision, suggest that eco-driving is as safe as human driving, it could cause unexpected behavior in human drivers. More research is needed to fully understand potential safety impacts, Wu says.Their results also show that eco-driving could provide even greater benefits when combined with alternative transportation decarbonization solutions. For instance, 20 percent eco-driving adoption in San Francisco would cut emission levels by 7 percent, but when combined with the projected adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles, it would cut emissions by 17 percent.“This is a first attempt to systematically quantify network-wide environmental benefits of eco-driving. This is a great research effort that will serve as a key reference for others to build on in the assessment of eco-driving systems,” says Hesham Rakha, the Samuel L. Pritchard Professor of Engineering at Virginia Tech, who was not involved with this research.And while the researchers focus on carbon emissions, the benefits are highly correlated with improvements in fuel consumption, energy use, and air quality.“This is almost a free intervention. We already have smartphones in our cars, and we are rapidly adopting cars with more advanced automation features. For something to scale quickly in practice, it must be relatively simple to implement and shovel-ready. Eco-driving fits that bill,” Wu says.This work is funded, in part, by Amazon and the Utah Department of Transportation. More

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      in Environment

      School of Architecture and Planning welcomes new faculty for 2025

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      Four new faculty members join the School of Architecture and Planning (SA+P) this fall, offering the MIT community creativity, knowledge, and scholarship in multidisciplinary roles.“These individuals add considerable strength and depth to our faculty,” says Hashim Sarkis, dean of the School of Architecture and Planning. “We are excited for the academic vigor they bring to research and teaching.”Karrie G. Karahalios ’94, MEng ’95, SM ’97, PhD ’04 joins the MIT Media Lab as a full professor of media arts and sciences. Karahalios is a pioneer in the exploration of social media and of how people communicate in environments that are increasingly mediated by algorithms that, as she has written, “shape the world around us.” Her work combines computing, systems, artificial intelligence, anthropology, sociology, psychology, game theory, design, and infrastructure studies. Karahalios’ work has received numerous honors including the National Science Foundation CAREER Award, Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship, SIGMOD Best Paper Award, and recognition as an ACM Distinguished Member.Pat Pataranutaporn SM ’18, PhD ’20 joins the MIT Media Lab as an assistant professor of media arts and sciences. A visionary technologist, scientist, and designer, Pataranutaporn explores the frontier of human-AI interaction, inventing and investigating AI systems that support human thriving. His research focuses on how personalized AI systems can amplify human cognition, from learning and decision-making to self-development, reflection, and well-being. Pataranutaporn will co-direct the Advancing Humans with AI Program.Mariana Popescu joins the Department of Architecture as an assistant professor. Popescu is a computational architect and structural designer with a strong interest and experience in innovative ways of approaching the fabrication process and use of materials in construction. Her area of expertise is computational and parametric design, with a focus on digital fabrication and sustainable design. Her extensive involvement in projects related to promoting sustainability has led to a multilateral development of skills, which combine the fields of architecture, engineering, computational design, and digital fabrication. Popescu earned her doctorate at ETH Zurich. She was named a “Pioneer” on the MIT Technology Review global list of “35 innovators under 35” in 2019.Holly Samuelson joins the Department of Architecture as an associate professor in the Building Technology Program at MIT, teaching architectural technology courses. Her teaching and research focus on issues of building design that impact human and environmental health. Her current projects harness advanced building simulation to investigate issues of greenhouse gas emissions, heat vulnerability, and indoor environmental quality while considering the future of buildings in a changing electricity grid. Samuelson has co-authored over 40 peer-reviewed papers, winning a best paper award from the journal Energy and Building. As a recognized expert in architectural technology, she has been featured in news outlets including The Washington Post, The Boston Globe, the BBC, and The Wall Street Journal. Samuelson earned her doctor of design from Harvard University Graduate School of Design. More

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      in Energy

      Model predicts long-term effects of nuclear waste on underground disposal systems

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      As countries across the world experience a resurgence in nuclear energy projects, the questions of where and how to dispose of nuclear waste remain as politically fraught as ever. The United States, for instance, has indefinitely stalled its only long-term underground nuclear waste repository. Scientists are using both modeling and experimental methods to study the effects of underground nuclear waste disposal and ultimately, they hope, build public trust in the decision-making process.New research from scientists at MIT, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, and the University of Orléans makes progress in that direction. The study shows that simulations of underground nuclear waste interactions, generated by new, high-performance-computing software, aligned well with experimental results from a research facility in Switzerland.The study, which was co-authored by MIT PhD student Dauren Sarsenbayev and Assistant Professor Haruko Wainwright, along with Christophe Tournassat and Carl Steefel, appears in the journal PNAS.“These powerful new computational tools, coupled with real-world experiments like those at the Mont Terri research site in Switzerland, help us understand how radionuclides will migrate in coupled underground systems,” says Sarsenbayev, who is first author of the new study.The authors hope the research will improve confidence among policymakers and the public in the long-term safety of underground nuclear waste disposal.“This research — coupling both computation and experiments — is important to improve our confidence in waste disposal safety assessments,” says Wainwright. “With nuclear energy re-emerging as a key source for tackling climate change and ensuring energy security, it is critical to validate disposal pathways.”Comparing simulations with experimentsDisposing of nuclear waste in deep underground geological formations is currently considered the safest long-term solution for managing high-level radioactive waste. As such, much effort has been put into studying the migration behaviors of radionuclides from nuclear waste within various natural and engineered geological materials.Since its founding in 1996, the Mont Terri research site in northern Switzerland has served as an important test bed for an international consortium of researchers interested in studying materials like Opalinus clay — a thick, water-tight claystone abundant in the tunneled areas of the mountain.“It is widely regarded as one of the most valuable real-world experiment sites because it provides us with decades of datasets around the interactions of cement and clay, and those are the key materials proposed to be used by countries across the world for engineered barrier systems and geological repositories for nuclear waste,” explains Sarsenbayev.For their study, Sarsenbayev and Wainwright collaborated with co-authors Tournassat and Steefel, who have developed high-performance computing software to improve modeling of interactions between the nuclear waste and both engineered and natural materials.To date, several challenges have limited scientists’ understanding of how nuclear waste reacts with cement-clay barriers. For one thing, the barriers are made up of irregularly mixed materials deep underground. Additionally, the existing class of models commonly used to simulate radionuclide interactions with cement-clay do not take into account electrostatic effects associated with the negatively charged clay minerals in the barriers.Tournassat and Steefel’s new software accounts for electrostatic effects, making it the only one that can simulate those interactions in three-dimensional space. The software, called CrunchODiTi, was developed from established software known as CrunchFlow and was most recently updated this year. It is designed to be run on many high-performance computers at once in parallel.For the study, the researchers looked at a 13-year-old experiment, with an initial focus on cement-clay rock interactions. Within the last several years, a mix of both negatively and positively charged ions were added to the borehole located near the center of the cement emplaced in the formation. The researchers focused on a 1-centimeter-thick zone between the radionuclides and cement-clay referred to as the “skin.” They compared their experimental results to the software simulation, finding the two datasets aligned.“The results are quite significant because previously, these models wouldn’t fit field data very well,” Sarsenbayev says. “It’s interesting how fine-scale phenomena at the ‘skin’ between cement and clay, the physical and chemical properties of which changes over time, could be used to reconcile the experimental and simulation data.” The experimental results showed the model successfully accounted for electrostatic effects associated with the clay-rich formation and the interaction between materials in Mont Terri over time.“This is all driven by decades of work to understand what happens at these interfaces,” Sarsenbayev says. “It’s been hypothesized that there is mineral precipitation and porosity clogging at this interface, and our results strongly suggest that.”“This application requires millions of degrees of freedom because these multibarrier systems require high resolution and a lot of computational power,” Sarsenbayev says. “This software is really ideal for the Mont Terri experiment.”Assessing waste disposal plansThe new model could now replace older models that have been used to conduct safety and performance assessments of underground geological repositories.“If the U.S. eventually decides to dispose nuclear waste in a geological repository, then these models could dictate the most appropriate materials to use,” Sarsenbayev says. “For instance, right now clay is considered an appropriate storage material, but salt formations are another potential medium that could be used. These models allow us to see the fate of radionuclides over millennia. We can use them to understand interactions at timespans that vary from months to years to many millions of years.”Sarsenbayev says the model is reasonably accessible to other researchers and that future efforts may focus on the use of machine learning to develop less computationally expensive surrogate models.Further data from the experiment will be available later this month. The team plans to compare those data to additional simulations.“Our collaborators will basically get this block of cement and clay, and they’ll be able to run experiments to determine the exact thickness of the skin along with all of the minerals and processes present at this interface,” Sarsenbayev says. “It’s a huge project and it takes time, but we wanted to share initial data and this software as soon as we could.”For now, the researchers hope their study leads to a long-term solution for storing nuclear waste that policymakers and the public can support.“This is an interdisciplinary study that includes real world experiments showing we’re able to predict radionuclides’ fate in the subsurface,” Sarsenbayev says. “The motto of MIT’s Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering is ‘Science. Systems. Society.’ I think this merges all three domains.” More

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      in Energy

      Decarbonizing steel is as tough as steel

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      The long-term aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement on climate change is to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and thereby reduce the frequency and severity of floods, droughts, wildfires, and other extreme weather events. Achieving that goal will require a massive reduction in global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions across all economic sectors. A major roadblock, however, could be the industrial sector, which accounts for roughly 25 percent of global energy- and process-related CO2 emissions — particularly within the iron and steel sector, industry’s largest emitter of CO2.Iron and steel production now relies heavily on fossil fuels (coal or natural gas) for heat, converting iron ore to iron, and making steel strong. Steelmaking could be decarbonized by a combination of several methods, including carbon capture technology, the use of low- or zero-carbon fuels, and increased use of recycled steel. Now a new study in the Journal of Cleaner Production systematically explores the viability of different iron-and-steel decarbonization strategies.Today’s strategy menu includes improving energy efficiency, switching fuels and technologies, using more scrap steel, and reducing demand. Using the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis model, a multi-sector, multi-region model of the world economy, researchers at MIT, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, and ExxonMobil Technology and Engineering Co. evaluate the decarbonization potential of replacing coal-based production processes with electric arc furnaces (EAF), along with either scrap steel or “direct reduced iron” (DRI), which is fueled by natural gas with carbon capture and storage (NG CCS DRI-EAF) or by hydrogen (H2 DRI-EAF).Under a global climate mitigation scenario aligned with the 1.5 C climate goal, these advanced steelmaking technologies could result in deep decarbonization of the iron and steel sector by 2050, as long as technology costs are low enough to enable large-scale deployment. Higher costs would favor the replacement of coal with electricity and natural gas, greater use of scrap steel, and reduced demand, resulting in a more-than-50-percent reduction in emissions relative to current levels. Lower technology costs would enable massive deployment of NG CCS DRI-EAF or H2 DRI-EAF, reducing emissions by up to 75 percent.Even without adoption of these advanced technologies, the iron-and-steel sector could significantly reduce its CO2 emissions intensity (how much CO2 is released per unit of production) with existing steelmaking technologies, primarily by replacing coal with gas and electricity (especially if it is generated by renewable energy sources), using more scrap steel, and implementing energy efficiency measures.“The iron and steel industry needs to combine several strategies to substantially reduce its emissions by mid-century, including an increase in recycling, but investing in cost reductions in hydrogen pathways and carbon capture and sequestration will enable even deeper emissions mitigation in the sector,” says study supervising author Sergey Paltsev, deputy director of the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy (MIT CS3) and a senior research scientist at the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI).This study was supported by MIT CS3 and ExxonMobil through its membership in MITEI. More

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      in Environment

      Study: Climate change may make it harder to reduce smog in some regions

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      Global warming will likely hinder our future ability to control ground-level ozone, a harmful air pollutant that is a primary component of smog, according to a new MIT study.The results could help scientists and policymakers develop more effective strategies for improving both air quality and human health. Ground-level ozone causes a host of detrimental health impacts, from asthma to heart disease, and contributes to thousands of premature deaths each year.The researchers’ modeling approach reveals that, as the Earth warms due to climate change, ground-level ozone will become less sensitive to reductions in nitrogen oxide emissions in eastern North America and Western Europe. In other words, it will take greater nitrogen oxide emission reductions to get the same air quality benefits.However, the study also shows that the opposite would be true in northeast Asia, where cutting emissions would have a greater impact on reducing ground-level ozone in the future. The researchers combined a climate model that simulates meteorological factors, such as temperature and wind speeds, with a chemical transport model that estimates the movement and composition of chemicals in the atmosphere.By generating a range of possible future outcomes, the researchers’ ensemble approach better captures inherent climate variability, allowing them to paint a fuller picture than many previous studies.“Future air quality planning should consider how climate change affects the chemistry of air pollution. We may need steeper cuts in nitrogen oxide emissions to achieve the same air quality goals,” says Emmie Le Roy, a graduate student in the MIT Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS) and lead author of a paper on this study.Her co-authors include Anthony Y.H. Wong, a postdoc in the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy; Sebastian D. Eastham, principal research scientist in the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy; Arlene Fiore, the Peter H. Stone and Paola Malanotte Stone Professor of EAPS; and senior author Noelle Selin, a professor in the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS) and EAPS. The research appears today in Environmental Science and Technology.Controlling ozoneGround-level ozone differs from the stratospheric ozone layer that protects the Earth from harmful UV radiation. It is a respiratory irritant that is harmful to the health of humans, animals, and plants.Controlling ground-level ozone is particularly challenging because it is a secondary pollutant, formed in the atmosphere by complex reactions involving nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds in the presence of sunlight.“That is why you tend to have higher ozone days when it is warm and sunny,” Le Roy explains.Regulators typically try to reduce ground-level ozone by cutting nitrogen oxide emissions from industrial processes. But it is difficult to predict the effects of those policies because ground-level ozone interacts with nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compounds in nonlinear ways.Depending on the chemical environment, reducing nitrogen oxide emissions could cause ground-level ozone to increase instead.“Past research has focused on the role of emissions in forming ozone, but the influence of meteorology is a really important part of Emmie’s work,” Selin says.To conduct their study, the researchers combined a global atmospheric chemistry model with a climate model that simulate future meteorology.They used the climate model to generate meteorological inputs for each future year in their study, simulating factors such as likely temperature and wind speeds, in a way that captures the inherent variability of a region’s climate.Then they fed those inputs to the atmospheric chemistry model, which calculates how the chemical composition of the atmosphere would change because of meteorology and emissions.The researchers focused on Eastern North America, Western Europe, and Northeast China, since those regions have historically high levels of the precursor chemicals that form ozone and well-established monitoring networks to provide data.They chose to model two future scenarios, one with high warming and one with low warming, over a 16-year period between 2080 and 2095. They compared them to a historical scenario capturing 2000 to 2015 to see the effects of a 10 percent reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions.Capturing climate variability“The biggest challenge is that the climate naturally varies from year to year. So, if you want to isolate the effects of climate change, you need to simulate enough years to see past that natural variability,” Le Roy says.They could overcome that challenge due to recent advances in atmospheric chemistry modeling and by taking advantage of parallel computing to simulate multiple years at the same time. They simulated five 16-year realizations, resulting in 80 model years for each scenario.The researchers found that eastern North America and Western Europe are especially sensitive to increases in nitrogen oxide emissions from the soil, which are natural emissions driven by increases in temperature.Due to that sensitivity, as the Earth warms and more nitrogen oxide from soil enters the atmosphere, reducing nitrogen oxide emissions from human activities will have less of an impact on ground-level ozone.“This shows how important it is to improve our representation of the biosphere in these models to better understand how climate change may impact air quality,” Le Roy says.On the other hand, since industrial processes in northeast Asia cause more ozone per unit of nitrogen oxide emitted, cutting emissions there would cause greater reductions in ground-level ozone in future warming scenarios.“But I wouldn’t say that is a good thing because it means that, overall, there are higher levels of ozone,” Le Roy adds.Running detailed meteorology simulations, rather than relying on annual average weather data, gave the researchers a more complete picture of the potential effects on human health.“Average climate isn’t the only thing that matters. One high ozone day, which might be a statistical anomaly, could mean we don’t meet our air quality target and have negative human health impacts that we should care about,” Le Roy says.In the future, the researchers want to continue exploring the intersection of meteorology and air quality. They also want to expand their modeling approach to consider other climate change factors with high variability, like wildfires or biomass burning.“We’ve shown that it is important for air quality scientists to consider the full range of climate variability, even if it is hard to do in your models, because it really does affect the answer that you get,” says Selin.This work is funded, in part, by the MIT Praecis Presidential Fellowship, the J.H. and E.V. Wade Fellowship, and the MIT Martin Family Society of Fellows for Sustainability. More