Aluja, M. Fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) research in Latin America: myths, realities and dreams. Soc. Entomol. Bras. 28, 565–594 (1999).
Google Scholar
Weldon, C. W., Yap, S. & Taylor, P. W. Desiccation resistance of wild and mass-reared Bactrocera tryoni (Diptera: Tephritidae). Bull. Entomol. Res. 103, 690–699 (2013).
Google Scholar
Weldon, C. W., Boardman, L., Marlin, D. & Terblanche, J. S. Physiological mechanisms of dehydration tolerance contribute to the invasion potential of Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Tephritidae) relative to its less widely distributed congeners. Front. Zool. 13, 15 (2016).
Google Scholar
Weldon, C. W., Díaz-Fleischer, F. & Pérez-Staples, D. in Area-Wide Management of Fruit Fly Pests (eds. Pérez-Staples, D. et al.) 27–43 (CRC Press, 2020).
Malacrida, A. R. et al. Globalization and fruit fly invasion and expansion: the medfly paradigm. Genetica 131, 1–9 (2007).
Google Scholar
Diamantidis, A. D., Carey, J. R., Nakas, C. T. & Papadopoulos, N. T. Ancestral populations perform better in a novel environment: domestication of Mediterranean fruit fly populations from five global regions. Biol. J. Linn. Soc. 102, 334–345 (2011).
Google Scholar
Diamantidis, A. D. et al. Life history evolution in a globally invading tephritid: patterns of survival and reproduction in medflies from six world regions. Biol. J. Linn. Soc. 97, 106–117 (2009).
Google Scholar
Papadopoulos, N. T., Plant, R. E. & Carey, J. R. From trickle to flood: the large-scale, cryptic invasion of California by tropical fruit flies. Proc. R. Soc. Biol. Sci. Ser. B 280, 20131466 (2013).
Google Scholar
EUPHRESCO, project FLY_DETECT. Development and implementation of early detection tools and effective management strategies for invasive non-European and other selected fruit fly species of economic importance (FLY DETECT). Final report. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3732297. (2020)
FSA PLH Panel, (EFSA Panel on Plant Health). Pest categorisation of non-EU Tephritidae. EFSA J. 18, e05931 (2020).
Carey, J. R. The Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata). Am. Entomol. 56, 158–163 (2010).
Google Scholar
Gutierrez, A. P. Applied Population Ecology: A Supply-Demand Approach. (Wiley, 1996).
Sinclair, T. R. & Seligman, N. G. Crop modeling: from infancy to maturity. Agron. J. 88, 698–704 (1996).
Google Scholar
Gutierrez, A. P. & Ponti, L. Eradication of invasive species: why the biology matters. Environ. Entomol. 42, 395–411 (2013).
Google Scholar
Asplen, M. K. et al. Invasion biology of spotted wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii): a global perspective and future priorities. J. Pest Sci. 88, 469–494 (2015).
Google Scholar
Neteler, M., Bowman, M. H., Landa, M. & Metz, M. GRASS GIS: a multi-purpose Open Source GIS. Environ. Model. Softw. 31, 124–130 (2012).
Google Scholar
Ekesi, S., Mohamed, S. & Meyer, M. D. Fruit Fly Research and Development in Africa—Towards a Sustainable Management Strategy to Improve Horticulture. (Springer, 2016).
Vera, M. T., Rodriguez, R., Segura, D. F., Cladera, J. L. & Sutherst, R. W. Potential geographical distribution of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae), with emphasis on Argentina and Australia. Environ. Entomol. 31, 1009–1022 (2002).
Google Scholar
De Meyer, M., Robertson, M. P., Peterson, A. T. & Mansell, M. W. Ecological niches and potential geographical distributions of Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata) and Natal fruit fly (Ceratitis rosa). J. Biogeogr. 35, 270–281 (2008).
Google Scholar
Tuel, A. & Eltahir, E. A. B. Why is the Mediterranean a climate change hot spot? J. Clim. 33, 5829–5843 (2020).
Google Scholar
Gaston, K. J. Geographic range limits: achieving synthesis. Proc. R. Soc. Biol. Sci. Ser. B 276, 1395–1406 (2009).
Google Scholar
IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Cambridge University Press, 2014).
Godefroid, M., Cruaud, A., Rossi, J. P. & Rasplus, J. Y. Assessing the risk of invasion by Tephritid fruit flies: intraspecific divergence matters. PLoS ONE 10, e0135209 (2015).
Google Scholar
Ponti, L. et al. Biological invasion risk assessment of Tuta absoluta: mechanistic versus correlative methods. Biol. Invasions (in press).
Carey, J. R., Papadopoulos, N. & Plant, R. The 30‐year debate on a multi‐billion‐dollar threat: tephritid fruit fly establishment in California. Am. Entomol. 63, 100–113 (2017).
Google Scholar
Gutierrez, A. P., Ponti, L. & Gilioli, G. Comments on the concept of ultra-low, cryptic tropical fruit fly populations. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 281, 20132825 (2014).
Google Scholar
McInnis, D. O. et al. Can polyphagous invasive tephritid pest populations escape detection for years under favorable climatic and host conditions? Am. Entomol. 63, 89–99 (2017).
Google Scholar
Barr, N. B. et al. Genetic diversity of Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) on the Hawaiian islands: implications for an introduction pathway into California. J. Econ. Entomol. 107, 1946–1958 (2014).
Google Scholar
Davies, N., Villablanca, F. X. & Roderick, G. K. Bioinvasions of the medfly Ceratitis capitata: source estimation using DNA sequences at multiple intron loci. Genetics 153, 351–360 (1999).
Google Scholar
Meixner, M. D., McPheron, B. A., Silva, J. G., Gasparich, G. E. & Sheppard, W. S. The Mediterranean fruit fly in California: evidence for multiple introductions and persistent populations based on microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA variability. Mol. Ecol. Notes 11, 891–899 (2002).
Google Scholar
Gutierrez, A. P., Ponti, L. & Cossu, Q. A. Effects of climate warming on olive and olive fly (Bactrocera oleae (Gmelin)) in California and Italy. Clim. Change 95, 195–217 (2009).
Google Scholar
Johnson, M. W. et al. High temperature affects olive fruit fly populations in California’s Central Valley. Calif. Agric. 65, 29–33 (2011).
Google Scholar
Gutierrez, A. P., Ponti, L. & Dalton, D. T. Analysis of the invasiveness of spotted wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii) in North America, Europe, and the Mediterranean Basin. Biol. Invasions 18, 3647–3663 (2016).
Google Scholar
Ponti, L., Gutierrez, A. P., Ruti, P. M. & Dell’Aquila, A. Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 5598–5603 (2014).
Google Scholar
Andrewartha, H. G. & Birch, L. C. The Distribution and Abundance of Animals. (The University of Chicago Press, 1954).
Huffaker, C. B. & Messenger, P. S. Theory and Practice of Biological Control. (Academic Press, 1976).
Palladino, P. Defining ecology: ecological theories, mathematical models, and applied biology in the 1960s and 1970s. J. Hist. Biol. 24, 223–243 (1991).
Google Scholar
Dormann, C. F., Fründ, J. & Schaefer, H. M. Identifying causes of patterns in ecological networks: opportunities and limitations. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 48, 559–584 (2017).
Google Scholar
Evans, M. R. Modelling ecological systems in a changing world. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 367, 181–190 (2012).
Google Scholar
Jørgensen, S. E., Nielsen, S. N. & Fath, B. D. Recent progress in systems ecology. Ecol. Model. 319, 112–118 (2016).
Google Scholar
FSA PLH Panel, (EFSA Panel on Plant Health). Pest categorisation of non-EU Tephritidae. EFSA J. 18, e05931 (2020).
Messenger, P. S. & van den Bosch, R. in Biological Control (ed. Huffaker, C. B.) 511 (Plenum/Rosetta Press, 1969).
Grout, T. G. & Stoltz, K. C. Developmental rates at constant temperatures of three economically important Ceratitis spp. (Diptera: Tephritidae) from southern Africa. Environ. Entomol. 36, 1310–1317 (2007).
Google Scholar
Papanastasiou, S. A., Nestel, D., Diamantidis, A. D., Nakas, C. T. & Papadopoulos, N. T. Physiological and biological patterns of a highland and a coastal population of the European cherry fruit fly during diapause. J. Insect Physiol. 57, 83–93 (2011).
Google Scholar
Müller, H. G., Wu, S., Diamantidis, A. D., Papadopoulos, N. T. & Carey, J. R. Reproduction is adapted to survival characteristics across geographically isolated medfly populations. Proc. R. Soc. Biol. Sci. Ser. B 276, 4409–4416 (2009).
Google Scholar
Wang, J., Zeng, L. & Han, Z. An assessment of cold hardiness and biochemical adaptations for cold tolerance among different geographic populations of the Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China. J. Insect Sci. Ludhiana 14, 292 (2014).
Aluja, M. et al. Nonhost status of Citrus sinensis cultivar Valencia and C. paradisi cultivar Ruby Red to Mexican Anastrepha fraterculus (Diptera: Tephritidae). J. Econ. Entomol. 96, 1693–1703 (2003).
Google Scholar
Dupuis, J. R., Ruiz‐Arce, R., Barr, N. B., Thomas, D. B. & Geib, S. M. Range‐wide population genomics of the Mexican fruit fly: toward development of pathway analysis tools. Evol. Appl. 12, 1641–1660 (2019).
Google Scholar
Bennett, J. M. et al. The evolution of critical thermal limits of life on Earth. Nat. Commun. 12, 1198 (2021).
Google Scholar
Ricalde, M. P., Nava, D. E., Loeck, A. E. & Donatti, M. G. Temperature-dependent development and survival of Brazilian populations of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata, from tropical, subtropical and temperate regions. J. Insect Sci. 12, 33 (2012).
Google Scholar
Duyck, P. F. & Quilici, S. Survival and development of different life stages of three Ceratitis spp. (Diptera: Tephritidae) reared at five constant temperatures. Bull. Entomol. Res. 92, 461–469 (2002).
Google Scholar
Gutierrez, A. P. & Regev, U. The bioeconomics of tritrophic systems: applications to invasive species. Ecol. Econ. 52, 383–396 (2005).
Google Scholar
Gutierrez, A. P. & Ponti, L. The new world screwworm: prospective distribution and role of weather in eradication. Agric. Entomol. 16, 158–173 (2014).
Google Scholar
Gutierrez, A. P., Ponti, L. & Arias, P. A. Deconstructing the eradication of new world screwworm in North America: retrospective analysis and climate warming effects. Med. Vet. Entomol. 33, 282–295 (2019).
Google Scholar
Egartner, A. & Lethmayer, C. Invasive fruit flies of economic importance in Austria – monitoring activities 2016. IOBCWPRS Bull. 123, 45–49 (2017).
Nugnes, F., Russo, E., Viggiani, G. & Bernardo, U. First record of an invasive fruit fly belonging to Bactrocera dorsalis complex (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Europe. Insects 9, 182 (2018).
Google Scholar
Liebhold, A. M. et al. Eradication of invading insect populations: from concepts to applications. Annu. Rev. Entomol. 61, 335–352 (2016).
Tobin, P. C. et al. Determinants of successful arthropod eradication programs. Biol. Invasions 16, 401–414 (2014).
Google Scholar
Gilbert, N., Gutierrez, A. P., Frazer, B. D. & Jones, R. E. Ecological Relationships. (W.H. Freeman and Co., 1976).
Gutierrez, A. P. Applied Population Ecology: A Supply-Demand Approach (Wiley, 1996).
Gutierrez, A. P. The physiological basis of ratio-dependent predator-prey theory: the metabolic pool model as a paradigm. Ecology 73, 1552–1563 (1992).
Google Scholar
Gutierrez, A. P., Mills, N. J., Schreiber, S. J. & Ellis, C. K. A physiologically based tritrophic perspective on bottom-up-top-down regulation of populations. Ecology 75, 2227–2242 (1994).
Google Scholar
Mills, N. J. & Gutierrez, A. P. in Theoretical Approaches to Biological Control (eds. Hawkins, B. A. & Cornell, V. H.) (Cambridge University Press, 1999).
Barlow, N. D. in Theoretical Approaches to Biological Control (eds. Hawkins, B. A. & Cornell, H. V.) 43–70 (Cambridge University Press, 1999).
Manetsch, T. J. Time-varying distributed delays and their use in aggregative models of large systems. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 6, 547–553 (1976).
Google Scholar
Buffoni, G. & Pasquali, S. Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures. J. Math. Biol. 54, 555–595 (2007).
Google Scholar
Di Cola, G., Gilioli, G. & Baumgärtner, J. in Ecological Entomology (eds. Huffaker, C. B. & Gutierrez, A. P.) (Wiley, 1999).
Severini, M., Alilla, R., Pesolillo, S. & Baumgärtner, J. Fenologia della vite e della Lobesia botrana (Lep. Tortricidae) nella zona dei Castelli Romani. Riv. Ital. Agrometeorol. 3, 34–39 (2005).
Vansickle, J. Attrition in distributed delay models. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 7, 635–638 (1977).
Google Scholar
Wang, Y. H. & Gutierrez, A. P. An assessment of the use of stability analyses in population ecology. J. Anim. Ecol. 49, 435–452 (1980).
Google Scholar
Briére, J. F., Pracros, P., Le Roux, A. Y. & Pierre, J. S. A novel rate model of temperature-dependent development for arthropods. Environ. Entomol. 28, 22–29 (1999).
Google Scholar
Frazer, B. D. & Gilbert, N. Coccinellids and aphids: a quantitative study of the impact of adult ladybirds (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) preying on field populations of pea aphids (Homoptera: Aphididae). J. Entomol. Soc. Br. Columbia 73, 33–56 (1976).
Gutierrez, A. P. & Baumgärtner, J. U. Multitrophic level models of predator-prey energetics: I. Age-specific energetics models—pea aphid Acyrthosiphon pisum (Homoptera: Aphididae) as an example. Can. Entomol. 116, 924–932 (1984).
Bieri, M., Baumgärtner, J., Bianchi, G., Delucchi, V. & von Arx, R. Development and fecundity of pea aphid (Acyrthosiphon pisum Harris) as affected by constant temperatures and by pea varieties. Mitteilungen Schweiz. Entomol. Ges. 56, 163–171 (1983).
Messenger, P. S. & Flitters, N. E. Effect of constant temperature environments on the egg stage of three species of Hawaiian fruit flies. Ann. Entomol. Soc. Am. 51, 109–119 (1958).
Google Scholar
Carey, J. R. Demography and population dynamics of the Mediterranean fruit fly. Ecol. Model. 16, 125–150 (1982).
Google Scholar
Muñiz, M. & Gil, A. Laboratory studies on isolated pairs of Ceratitis capitata—results obtained during the last three years in Spain. In: Cavalloro R (ed), Fruit flies of economic importance; Joint Ad-Hoc Meeting of the Commission of the European Communities and the International Organization for Biological and Integrated Control, Hamburg, West Germany, A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Boston, MA, USA, 125–128 (1984).
Vargas, R. I., Walsh, W. A., Jang, E. B., Armstrong, J. W. & Kanehisa, D. T. Survival and development of immature stages of four Hawaiian fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) reared at five constant temperatures. Ann. Entomol. Soc. Am. 89, 64–69 (1996).
Google Scholar
Vargas, R. I., Walsh, W. A., Kanehisa, D., Jang, E. B. & Armstrong, J. W. Demography of four Hawaiian fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) reared at five constant temperatures. Ann. Entomol. Soc. Am. 90, 162–168 (1997).
Google Scholar
Vargas, R. I., Walsh, W. A., Kanehisa, D., Stark, J. D. & Nishida, T. Comparative demography of three Hawaiian fruit flies (Diptera:Tephritidae) at alternating temperatures. Ann. Entomol. Soc. Am. 93, 75–81 (2000).
Google Scholar
Delrio, G., Conti, B. & Corvetti, A. Effects of abiotic factors on Ceratitis capitata (Wied.) (Diptera: Tephritidae)—I. Egg development under constant temperatures. In Fruit Flies of Economic Importance 84. Proceedings of the CEC/IOBC “Ad-hoc Meeting” (ed. Cavalloro, R.) 133–139 (A.A. Balkema, 1984).
Duyck, P. F., Sterlin, J. F. & Quilici, S. Survival and development of different life stages of Bactrocera zonata (Diptera: Tephritidae) reared at five constant temperatures compared to other fruit fly species. Bull. Entomol. Res. 94, 89–93 (2004).
Google Scholar
Powell, M. R. Modeling the response of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Diptera:Tephritidae) to cold treatment. J. Econ. Entomol. 96, 300–310 (2003).
Google Scholar
Shoukry, A. & Hafez, M. The biology of the Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata. Entomol. Exp. Appl. 26, 33–39 (1979).
Google Scholar
Duyck, P. F., David, P. & Quilici, S. Climatic niche partitioning following successive invasions by fruit flies in La Réunion. J. Anim. Ecol. 75, 518–526 (2006).
Google Scholar
Dhillon, M. K., Singh, R., Naresh, J. S. & Sharma, H. C. The melon fruit fly, Bactrocera cucurbitae: a review of its biology and management. J. Insect Sci. Ludhiana 5, 40 (2005).
Google Scholar
Messenger, P. S. & Flitters, N. E. Bioclimatic studies of three species of fruit flies in Hawaii. J. Econ. Entomol. 47, 756–765 (1954).
Google Scholar
Keck, C. B. Effect of temperature on development and activity of the melon fly. J. Econ. Entomol. 44, 1001–1002 (1951).
Google Scholar
Yang, P., Carey, J. R. & Dowell, R. V. Comparative demography of two cucurbit-attacking fruit flies, Bactrocera tau and B. cucurbitae (Diptera: Tephritidae). Ann. Entomol. Soc. Am. 87, 538–545 (1994).
Google Scholar
Vayssières, J. F., Carel, Y., Coubes, M. & Duyck, P. F. Development of immature stages and comparative demography of two cucurbit-attacking fruit flies in Reunion Island: Bactrocera cucurbitae and Dacus ciliatus (Diptera Tephritidae). Environ. Entomol. 37, 307–314 (2008).
Google Scholar
Huang, Y. B. & Chi, H. Age-stage, two-sex life tables of Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillett) (Diptera: Tephritidae) with a discussion on the problem of applying female age-specific life tables to insect populations. Insect Sci. 19, 263–273 (2012).
Google Scholar
Kandakoor, S. B., Chakravarthy, A. K., Rashmi, M. A. & Verghese, A. Effect of elevated carbon dioxide and temperature on biology of melon fruit fly, Bactrocera cucurbitae Coquillett (Tephritidae: Diptera). Afr. Entomol. 27, 36–42 (2019).
Google Scholar
Teruya, T. Effects of relative humidity during pupal development on subsequent eclosion and flight capability of the melon fly, Dacus cucurbitae Coquillett (Diptera:Tephiritidae). Appl. Entomol. Zool. 25, 521–523 (1990).
Google Scholar
Laskar, N. & Chatterjee, H. The effect of meteorological factors on the population dynamics of melon fly, Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coq.) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in the foot hills of Himalaya. J. Appl. Sci. Environ. Manag. 14, 53–58 (2010).
Myers, S. W., Cancio-Martinez, E., Hallman, G. J., Fontenot, E. A. & Vreysen, M. J. B. Relative tolerance of six Bactrocera (Diptera: Tephritidae) species to phytosanitary cold treatment. J. Econ. Entomol. 109, 2341–2347 (2016).
Google Scholar
Zhou, S. H., Li, L., Zeng, B. & Fu, Y. G. Effects of short-term high-temperature conditions on oviposition and differential gene expression of Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillett) (Diptera: Tephritidae. Int. J. Pest Manag. 66, 332–340 (2020).
Google Scholar
Vargas, R. I. et al. Area-wide suppression of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata, and the Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis, in Kamuela, Hawaii. J. Insect Sci. 10, 135 (2010).
Google Scholar
Vargas, R. I. & Carey, J. R. Comparative survival and demographic statistics for wild Oriental fruit fly, Mediterranean fruit fly, and melon fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) on papaya. J. Econ. Entomol. 83, 1344–1349 (1990).
Google Scholar
Jang, E. B., Nagata, J. T., Chan, H. T. & Laidlaw, W. G. Thermal death kinetics in eggs and larvae of Bactrocera latifrons (Diptera: Tephritidae) and comparative thermotolerance to three other tephritid fruit fly species in Hawaii. J. Econ. Entomol. 92, 684–690 (1999).
Google Scholar
Xie, Q., Hou, B. & Zhang, R. Thermal responses of oriental fruit fly (diptera: tephritidae) late third instars: mortality, puparial morphology, and adult emerge. J. Econ. Entomol. 101, 736–741 (2008).
Google Scholar
Armstrong, J. W., Tang, J. & Wang, S. Thermal death kinetics of Mediterranean, Malaysian, melon, and oriental fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) eggs and third instars. J. Econ. Entomol. 102, 522–532 (2009).
Google Scholar
Choi, K. S., Samayoa, A. C., Hwang, S.-Y., Huang, Y.-B. & Ahn, J. J. Thermal effect on the fecundity and longevity of Bactrocera dorsalis adults and their improved oviposition model. PLOS ONE 15, e0235910 (2020).
Google Scholar
Shukla, R. P. & Prasad, V. G. Population fluctuations of the oriental fruit fly, Dacus dorsalis Hendel in relation to hosts and abiotic factors. Trop. Pest Manag. 31, 273–275 (1985).
Google Scholar
Hurtado, H. et al. Demography of three Mexican tephritids: Anastrepha ludens, A. obliqua and A. serpentina. Fla. Entomol. 71, 110–120 (1988).
Liedo, P., Carey, J. R., Celedonio, H. & Guillen, J. Size specific demography of three species of Anastrepha fruit flies. Entomol. Exp. Appl. 63, 135–142 (1992).
Google Scholar
Carey, J. R. et al. Biodemography of a long-lived tephritid: Reproduction and longevity in a large cohort of female Mexican fruit flies, Anastrepha ludens. Exp. Gerontol. 40, 793–800 (2005).
Google Scholar
Berrigan, D. A., Carey, J. R., Guillen, J. & Celedonio, H. Age and host effects on clutch size in the Mexican fruit fly, Anastrepha ludens. Entomol. Exp. Appl. 47, 73–80 (1988).
Google Scholar
Quintero‐Fong, L. et al. Demography of a genetic sexing strain of Anastrepha ludens (Diptera: Tephritidae): effects of selection based on mating performance. Agric. Entomol. 20, 1–8 (2018).
Google Scholar
Tejeda, M. T. et al. Reasons for success: rapid evolution for desiccation resistance and life-history changes in the polyphagous fly Anastrepha ludens. Evolution 70, 2583–2594 (2016).
Google Scholar
Darby, H. H. & Kapp, E. M. Observations on the thermal death points of Anatrepha ludens (Loew). US Dep. Agric. Tech. Bull. 400, 12445 (1933).
Flitters, N. E. & Messenger, P. S. Effect of temperature and humidity on development and potential distribution of the Mexican fruit fly in the United States. U. S. Dep. Agric. Tech. Bull. 1330, 1–36 (1965).
Ruane, A. C., Goldberg, R. & Chryssanthacopoulos, J. Climate forcing datasets for agricultural modeling: merged products for gap-filling and historical climate series estimation. Agric. Meteorol. 200, 233–248 (2015).
Google Scholar
Rienecker, M. M. et al. MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era retrospective analysis for research and applications. J. Clim. 24, 3624–3648 (2011).
Google Scholar
Dell’Aquila, A. et al. Effects of seasonal cycle fluctuations in an A1B scenario over the Euro-Mediterranean region. Clim. Res. 52, 135–157 (2012).
Google Scholar
Artale, V. et al. An atmosphere-ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean area: assessment of a present climate simulation. Clim. Dyn. 35, 721–740 (2010).
Google Scholar
Giorgi, F. & Bi, X. Updated regional precipitation and temperature changes for the 21st century from ensembles of recent AOGCM simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L21715 (2005).
Google Scholar
Gualdi, S. et al. The CIRCE simulations: regional climate change projections with realistic representation of the Mediterranean sea. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94, 65–81 (2013).
Google Scholar
Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C. & Duffy, P. B. Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 16, 3309–3314 (2012).
Google Scholar
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).
Google Scholar
Riahi, K. et al. RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim. Change 109, 33–57 (2011).
Google Scholar
Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M. & Knutti, R. Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 248–253 (2012).
Google Scholar
GRASS Development Team. Geographic Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS) Software, Version 7.9.dev. (Open Source Geospatial Foundation. http://grass.osgeo.org, (2021).
Gutierrez, A. P. & Ponti, L. in Invasive Species and Global Climate Change (eds. Ziska, L. H. & Dukes, J. S.) 271–288 (CABI Publishing, 2014).
Ponti, L. et al. Bioeconomic analogies as a unifying paradigm for modeling agricultural systems under global change in the context of geographic information systems. Geophys. Res. Abstr. 21, 13677 (2019). EGU2019.
Source: Ecology - nature.com