Urban, M. C. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. Science 348, 571–573 (2015).
Google Scholar
Brown, S. C., Wigley, T. M. L., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Rahbek, C. & Fordham, D. A. Persistent Quaternary climate refugia are hospices for biodiversity in the Anthropocene. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 244–248 (2020).
Google Scholar
O’Hara, C. C., Frazier, M. & Halpern, B. S. At-risk marine biodiversity faces extensive, expanding, and intensifying human impacts. Science 372, 84–87 (2021).
Google Scholar
Halpern, B. S. et al. An index to assess the health and benefits of the global ocean. Nature 488, 615–620 (2012).
Google Scholar
Free, C. M. et al. Impacts of historical warming on marine fisheries production. Science 363, 979–983 (2019).
Google Scholar
Costello, C. et al. The future of food from the sea. Nature 588, 95–100 (2020).
Google Scholar
Lotze, H. K., Bryndum-Buchholz, A. & Boyce, D. G. in The Impacts of Climate Change: Comprehensive Study of the Physical, Societal and Political Issues (ed. Letcher, T.) 205–231 (Elsevier, 2021); https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-822373-4.00017-3
Boyce, D. G., Lotze, H. K., Tittensor, D. P., Carozza, D. A. & Worm, B. Future ocean biomass losses may widen socioeconomic equity gaps. Nat. Commun. 11, 2235 (2020).
Google Scholar
Tittensor, D. P. et al. Integrating climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in the global ocean. Sci. Adv. 5, 2235 (2019).
Google Scholar
Wilson, K. L., Tittensor, D. P., Worm, B. & Lotze, H. K. Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning. Glob. Change Biol. 26, 3251–3267 (2020).
Google Scholar
Barange, M. et al. (eds) Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture: Synthesis of Current Knowledge, Adaptation and Mitigation Options FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No. 627 (FAO, 2018).
Hare, J. A. et al. A vulnerability assessment of fish and invertebrates to climate change on the northeast U.S. continental shelf. PLoS ONE 11, 1–654 (2016).
Google Scholar
Boyce, D. G., Fuller, S., Karbowski, C., Schleit, K. & Worm, B. Leading or lagging: how well are climate change considerations being incorporated into Canadian fisheries management? Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 78, 1120–1129 (2021).
Google Scholar
IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
Pacifici, M. et al. Assessing species vulnerability to climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 215–225 (2015).
Google Scholar
de los Ríos, C., Watson, J. E. M. & Butt, N. Persistence of methodological, taxonomical, and geographical bias in assessments of species’ vulnerability to climate change: a review. Glob. Ecol. Conserv. 15, e00412 (2018).
Google Scholar
Foden, W. B. et al. Climate change vulnerability assessment of species. WIREs Clim. Change 10, e551 (2019).
Google Scholar
Comte, L. & Olden, J. D. Climatic vulnerability of the world’s freshwater and marine fishes. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 718–722 (2017).
Google Scholar
Albouy, C. et al. Global vulnerability of marine mammals to global warming. 1–12 (2020).
Foden, W. B. et al. Identifying the world’s most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals. PLoS ONE 8, e65427 (2013).
Google Scholar
Kesner-Reyes, K. et al. AquaMaps: algorithm and data sources for aquatic organisms. In FishBase v.04/2012 (eds. Froese, R. & Pauly, D.) www.fishbase.org (2016).
Stuart-Smith, R. D., Edgar, G. J., Barrett, N. S., Kininmonth, S. J. & Bates, A. E. Thermal biases and vulnerability to warming in the world’s marine fauna. Nature 528, 88–92 (2015).
Google Scholar
Trisos, C. H., Merow, C. & Pigot, A. L. The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change. Nature 580, 496–501 (2020).
Google Scholar
Cheung, W. W. L., Watson, R., Morato, T., Pitcher, T. J. & Pauly, D. Intrinsic vulnerability in the global fish catch. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 333, 1–12 (2007).
Google Scholar
IPCC Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, in the press).
IPCC Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds McCarthy, J. J. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2001).
The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species v.2021-1 (IUCN, 2021); https://www.iucnredlist.org
Tittensor, D. P. et al. Global patterns and predictors of marine biodiversity across taxa. Nature 466, 1098–1101 (2010).
Google Scholar
Rogers, A. et al. Critical Habitats and Biodiversity: Inventory, Thresholds and Governance. Sci. Rep. 10, 548 (World Resources Institute, 2020).
Sala, E. et al. Protecting the global ocean for biodiversity, food and climate. Nature 592, 397–402 (2021).
Google Scholar
Halpern, B. S. et al. Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world’s ocean. Nat. Commun. 6, 7615 (2015).
Google Scholar
Pontavice, H., Gascuel, D., Reygondeau, G., Stock, C. & Cheung, W. W. L. Climate‐induced decrease in biomass flow in marine food webs may severely affect predators and ecosystem production. Glob. Change Biol. 27, 2608–2622 (2021).
Google Scholar
Estes, J. A., Heithaus, M., McCauley, D. J., Rasher, D. B. & Worm, B. Megafaunal impacts on structure and function of ocean ecosystems. Annu. Rev. Environ. Res. 41, 83–116 (2016).
Google Scholar
Jenkins, C. N., Pimm, S. L. & Joppa, L. N. Global patterns of terrestrial vertebrate diversity and conservation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, E2602–E2610 (2013).
Google Scholar
Moilanen, A., Kujala, H. & Mikkonen, N. A practical method for evaluating spatial biodiversity offset scenarios based on spatial conservation prioritization outputs. Methods Ecol. Evol. 11, 794–803 (2020).
Google Scholar
Ceballos, G. & Ehrlich, P. R. Global mammal distributions, biodiversity hotspots, and conservation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103, 19374–19379 (2006).
Google Scholar
Williams, P. H., Gaston, K. J. & Humphries, C. J. Mapping biodiversity value worldwide: combining higher-taxon richness from different groups. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 264, 141–148 (1997).
Google Scholar
Blanchard, J. L. et al. Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 1, 1240–1249 (2017).
Google Scholar
Robiou Du Pont, Y. et al. Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 38–43 (2017).
Google Scholar
Payne, N. L. et al. Fish heating tolerance scales similarly across individual physiology and populations. Commun. Biol. 4, 264 (2021).
Google Scholar
First Draft of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (Convention on Biological Diversity, 2021).
Keppel, G. et al. Refugia: identifying and understanding safe havens for biodiversity under climate change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 21, 393–404 (2012).
Google Scholar
Bryndum‐Buchholz, A., Tittensor, D. P. & Lotze, H. K. The status of climate change adaptation in fisheries management: policy, legislation and implementation. Fish Fish. https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12586 (2021).
Maureaud, A. et al. Are we ready to track climate‐driven shifts in marine species across international boundaries? A global survey of scientific bottom trawl data. Glob. Change Biol. 27, 220–236 (2021).
Google Scholar
Boyce, D. G. et al. Operationalizing climate risk for fisheries in a global warming hotspot. Preprint at: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.07.19.500650 (2022).
Estes, J. A. et al. Trophic downgrading of planet Earth. Science 333, 301–306 (2011).
Google Scholar
Olden, J. D., Hogan, Z. S. & Vander Zanden, M. J. Small fish, big fish, red fish, blue fish: size-biased extinction risk of the world’s freshwater and marine fishes. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16, 694–701 (2007).
Google Scholar
Tittensor, D. P. et al. A mid-term analysis of progress toward international biodiversity targets. Science 346, 241–244 (2014).
Google Scholar
Pinsky, M. L., Eikeset, A. M., McCauley, D. J., Payne, J. L. & Sunday, J. M. Greater vulnerability to warming of marine versus terrestrial ectotherms. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1132-4 (2019).
Sunday, J. M., Bates, A. E. & Dulvy, N. K. Thermal tolerance and the global redistribution of animals. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 686–690 (2012).
Google Scholar
Laidre, K. L. et al. Quantifying the sensitivity of Arctic marine mammals to climate-induced habitat change. Ecol. Appl. 18, S97–S125 (2008).
Google Scholar
Rosset, V. & Oertli, B. Freshwater biodiversity under climate warming pressure: identifying the winners and losers in temperate standing waterbodies. Biol. Conserv. 144, 2311–2319 (2011).
Google Scholar
Peters, R. L. The greenhouse effect and nature reserves. Biosciences 35, 707–717 (1985).
Google Scholar
Garcia, R. A. et al. Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change. J. Biogeogr. 41, 724–735 (2014).
Google Scholar
IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria: Version 3.1 (IUCN, 2012).
Worm, B. et al. Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services. Science 314, 787–790 (2006).
Google Scholar
Worm, B., Lotze, H. K., Hillebrand, H. & Sommer, U. Consumer versus resource control of species diversity and ecosystem functioning. Nature 417, 848–851 (2002).
Google Scholar
Worm, B. & Duffy, J. E. Biodiversity, productivity, and stability in real food webs. Trends Ecol. Evol. 18, 628–632 (2003).
Google Scholar
Halpern, B. S. et al. A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems. Science 319, 948–952 (2008).
Google Scholar
Ottersen, G., Hjermann, D. O. & Stenseth, N. C. Changes in spawning stock structure strengthen the link between climate and recruitment in a heavily fished cod (Gadus morhua) stock. Fish. Oceanogr. 15, 230–243 (2006).
Google Scholar
Le Bris, A. et al. Climate vulnerability and resilience in the most valuable North American fishery. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 1831–1836 (2018).
Google Scholar
Henson, S. A. et al. Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems. Nat. Commun. 8, 14682 (2017).
Google Scholar
Bates, A. E. et al. Climate resilience in marine protected areas and the ‘Protection Paradox’. Biol. Conserv. 236, 305–314 (2019).
Google Scholar
Xu, C., Kohler, T. A., Lenton, T. M., Svenning, J.-C. & Scheffer, M. Future of the human climate niche. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 11350–11355 (2020).
Google Scholar
Davies, T. E., Maxwell, S. M., Kaschner, K., Garilao, C. & Ban, N. C. Large marine protected areas represent biodiversity now and under climate change. Sci. Rep. 7, 9569 (2017).
Google Scholar
MacKenzie, B. R. et al. A cascade of warming impacts brings bluefin tuna to Greenland waters. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 2484–2491 (2014).
Google Scholar
Shackell, N. L., Ricard, D. & Stortini, C. Thermal habitat index of many Northwest Atlantic temperate species stays neutral under warming projected for 2030 but changes radically by 2060. PLoS ONE 9 (2014).
Boyce, D. G., Frank, K. T., Worm, B. & Leggett, W. C. Spatial patterns and predictors of trophic control across marine ecosystems. Ecol. Lett. 18, 1001–1011 (2015).
Google Scholar
Boyce, D. G., Frank, K. T. & Leggett, W. C. From mice to elephants: overturning the ‘one size fits all’ paradigm in marine plankton food chains. Ecol. Lett. 18, 504–515 (2015).
Google Scholar
Frank, K. T., Petrie, B., Shackell, N. L. & Choi, J. S. Reconciling differences in trophic control in mid-latitude marine ecosystems. Ecol. Lett. 9, 1096–1105 (2006).
Google Scholar
Frank, K. T., Petrie, B. & Shackell, N. L. The ups and downs of trophic control in continental shelf ecosystems. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22, 236–242 (2007).
Google Scholar
Loarie, S. R. et al. The velocity of climate change. Nature 462, 1052–1056 (2009).
Google Scholar
Burrows, M. T. et al. The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Science 334, 652–655 (2011).
Google Scholar
Mora, C. et al. The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Nature 502, 183–187 (2013).
Google Scholar
Poloczanska, E. S. et al. Responses of marine organisms to climate change across oceans. Front. Mar. Sci. 3, 62 (2016).
Google Scholar
Boyce, D. G., Lewis, M. L. & Worm, B. Global phytoplankton decline over the past century. Nature 466, 591–596 (2010).
Google Scholar
Burek, K. A., Gulland, F. M. D. & O’Hara, T. M. Effects of climate change on Arctic marine mammal health. Ecol. Appl. 18, S126–S134 (2008).
Google Scholar
Staude, I. R., Navarro, L. M. & Pereira, H. M. Range size predicts the risk of local extinction from habitat loss. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 29, 16–25 (2020).
Google Scholar
Moore, S. E. & Huntington, H. P. Arctic marine mammals and climate change: impacts and resilience. Ecol. Appl. 18, S157–S165 (2008).
Google Scholar
Kaschner, K., Watson, R., Trites, A. & Pauly, D. Mapping world-wide distributions of marine mammal species using a relative environmental suitability (RES) model. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 316, 285–310 (2006).
Google Scholar
Gonzalez-Suarez, M., Gomez, A. & Revilla, E. Which intrinsic traits predict vulnerability to extinction depends on the actual threatening processes. Ecosphere 4, 6 (2013).
Google Scholar
Rogan, J. E. & Lacher, T. E. in Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences (Elsevier, 2018); https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-409548-9.10913-3
Warren, M. S. et al. Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature 414, 65–69 (2001).
Google Scholar
Chessman, B. C. Identifying species at risk from climate change: traits predict the drought vulnerability of freshwater fishes. Biol. Conserv. 160, 40–49 (2013).
Google Scholar
Davidson, A. D. D. et al. Drivers and hotspots of extinction risk in marine mammals. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 3395–3400 (2012).
Google Scholar
Cheung, W. W. L., Pauly, D. & Sarmiento, J. L. How to make progress in projecting climate change impacts. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 70, 1069–1074 (2013).
Google Scholar
Fenchel, T. Intrinsic rate of natural increase: the relationship with body size. Oecologia 14, 317–326 (1974).
Google Scholar
Healy, K. et al. Ecology and mode-of-life explain lifespan variation in birds and mammals. Proc. R. Soc. B 281, 20140298 (2014).
Google Scholar
Carilli, J., Donner, S. D. & Hartmann, A. C. Historical temperature variability affects coral response to heat stress. PLoS ONE 7, e34418 (2012).
Google Scholar
Guest, J. R. et al. Contrasting patterns of coral bleaching susceptibility in 2010 suggest an adaptive response to thermal stress. PLoS ONE 7, e33353 (2012).
Google Scholar
Donner, S. D. & Carilli, J. Resilience of Central Pacific reefs subject to frequent heat stress and human disturbance. Sci. Rep. 9, 3484 (2019).
Google Scholar
Rehm, E. M., Olivas, P., Stroud, J. & Feeley, K. J. Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range‐edge populations. Ecol. Evol. 5, 4315–4326 (2015).
Google Scholar
Ready, J. et al. Predicting the distributions of marine organisms at the global scale. Ecol. Modell. 221, 467–478 (2010).
Google Scholar
Jones, M. C., Dye, S. R., Pinnegar, J. K., Warren, R. & Cheung, W. W. L. Modelling commercial fish distributions: prediction and assessment using different approaches. Ecol. Modell. 225, 133–145 (2012).
Google Scholar
Froese, R. & Pauly, D. FishBase v.02/2022 www.fishbase.org (2022).
Palomares, M. L. D. & Pauly, D. SeaLifeBase v.11/2014 www.sealifebase.org (2022).
van Buuren, S. Flexible Imputation of Missing Data (Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2012).
Dahlke, F. T., Wohlrab, S., Butzin, M. & Portner, H.-O. Thermal bottlenecks in the life cycle define climate vulnerability of fish. Science 369, 65–70 (2020).
Google Scholar
Stortini, C. H., Shackell, N. L., Tyedmers, P. & Beazley, K. Assessing marine species vulnerability to projected warming on the Scotian Shelf, Canada. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 72, 1713–1743 (2015).
Google Scholar
Reynolds, R. W. et al. Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J. Clim. 20, 5473–5496 (2007).
Google Scholar
Meinshausen, M. et al. The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500. Geosci. Model Dev. 13, 3571–3605 (2020).
Google Scholar
Samhouri, J. F. et al. Sea sick? Setting targets to assess ocean health and ecosystem services. Ecosphere 3, art41 (2012).
Google Scholar
Rao, T. R. A curve for all reasons. Resonance 5, 85–90 (2000).
Google Scholar
Mora, C. et al. Biotic and human vulnerability to projected changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the 21st century. PLoS Biol. 11, 10 (2013).
Google Scholar
Lotze, H. K. et al. Ensemble projections of global ocean animal biomass with climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900194116 (2019).
Eyring, V. et al. Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 102–110 (2019).
Google Scholar
Oppenheimer, M., Little, C. M. & Cooke, R. M. Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 445–451 (2016).
Google Scholar
Budescu, D. V., Por, H. H. & Broomell, S. B. Effective communication of uncertainty in the IPCC reports. Climatic Change 113, 181–200 (2012).
Google Scholar
Swart, R., Bernstein, L., Ha-Duong, M. & Petersen, A. Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC. Climatic Change 92, 1–29 (2009).
Google Scholar
NAFO Annual Fisheries Statistics Database (NAFO, 2021).
Horton, T. et al. World Register of Marine Species (WoRMS) https://www.marinespecies.org (2020).
Total Wealth per Capita, 1995 to 2014 (World Bank, 2022); https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-wealth-per-capita
Depth of the Food Deficit in Kilocalories per Person per Day, 1992 to 2016 (World Bank, 2022); https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/depth-of-the-food-deficit
Boyce, D. G. et al. A climate risk index for marine life. Dryad https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.7wm37pvwr (2022).
R Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing Version 4.0.4 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2021).
Source: Ecology - nature.com
