Scheffers, B. R. et al. The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people. Science 354, aaf7671 (2016).
Google Scholar
Pecl, G. T. et al. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science 355, eaai214 (2017).
Google Scholar
Nogués-Bravo, D. et al. Cracking the code of biodiversity responses to past climate change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 33, 765–776 (2018).
Google Scholar
Forsman, A., Betzholtz, P.-E. & Franzén, M. Faster poleward range shifts in moths with more variable colour patterns. Sci. Rep. 6, 36265 (2016).
Google Scholar
Voelkl, B. et al. Reproducibility of animal research in light of biological variation. Nat. Rev. Neurosci. 21, 384–393 (2020).
Google Scholar
Rödder, D., Schmitt, T., Gros, P., Ulrich, W. & Habel, J. C. Climate change drives mountain butterflies towards the summits. Sci. Rep. 11, 14382 (2021).
Google Scholar
Habel, J. C., Teucher, M., Gros, P., Schmitt, T. & Ulrich, W. Land use and climate change affects butterfly diversity across northern Austria. Landscape Ecol. 36, 1741–1754 (2021).
Google Scholar
Hill, J. K. et al. Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges. Proc. Biol. Sci. 269, 2163–2171 (2002).
Google Scholar
Chen, I. C. et al. Elevation increases in moth assemblages over 42 years on a tropical mountain. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106, 1479–1483 (2009).
Google Scholar
Cohen, J. M., Lajeunesse, M. J. & Rohr, J. R. A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 224–228 (2018).
Google Scholar
Bell, J. R. et al. Spatial and habitat variation in aphid, butterfly, moth and bird phenologies over the last half century. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 1982–1994 (2019).
Google Scholar
Hällfors, M. H. et al. Shifts in timing and duration of breeding for 73 boreal bird species over four decades. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 117, 18557–18565 (2020).
Google Scholar
Pruett, J. E. & Warner, D. A. Spatial and temporal variation in phenotypes and fitness in response to developmental thermal environments. Funct. Ecol. 35, 2635–2646 (2021).
Google Scholar
Hall, M., Nordahl, O., Larsson, P., Forsman, A. & Tibblin, P. Intra-population variation in reproductive timing covaries with thermal plasticity of offspring performance in perch Perca fluviatilis. J. Animal Ecol 90, 2236–2347 (2021).
Google Scholar
Ehrlich, P. R. & Hanski, I. On the Wings of Checkerspots: A Model System for Population Biology (Oxford University Press, 2004).
Warren, M. S. et al. The decline of butterflies in Europe: Problems, significance, and possible solutions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 118, e2002551117 (2021).
Google Scholar
Kristensen, N. P. Lepidoptera: Moths and Butterflies. 1. Evolution, Systematics, and Biogeography. Handbook of Zoology Vol. IV, Part 35 (De Gruyter, 1999).
Forsman, A. & Wennersten, L. Inter-individual variation promotes ecological success of populations and species: Evidence from experimental and comparative studies. Ecography 39, 630–648 (2016).
Google Scholar
Zografou, K. et al. Species traits affect phenological responses to climate change in a butterfly community. Sci. Rep. 11, 3283 (2021).
Google Scholar
Stevens, C. J. et al. Nitrogen deposition threatens species richness of grasslands across Europe. Environ. Pollut. 158, 2940–2945 (2010).
Google Scholar
Heinrich, B. The Thermal Warriors (Harvard University Press, 2013).
Bladon, A. J. et al. How butterflies keep their cool: Physical and ecological traits influence thermoregulatory ability and population trends. J. Anim. Ecol. 89, 2440–2450 (2020).
Google Scholar
Tsai, C.-C. et al. Physical and behavioral adaptations to prevent overheating of the living wings of butterflies. Nat. Commun. 11, 551 (2020).
Google Scholar
Ahnesjö, J. & Forsman, A. Differential habitat selection by pygmy grasshopper color morphs; interactive effects of temperature and predator avoidance. Evol. Ecol. 20, 235–257 (2006).
Google Scholar
Ma, C.-S., Ma, G. & Pincebourde, S. Survive a warming climate: Insect responses to extreme high temperatures. Annu. Rev. Entomol. 66, 163–184 (2021).
Google Scholar
Forsman, A. Rethinking phenotypic plasticity and its consequences for individuals, populations and species. Heredity 115, 276–284 (2015).
Google Scholar
Hill, G. M., Kawahara, A. Y., Daniels, J. C., Bateman, C. C. & Scheffers, B. R. Climate change effects on animal ecology: Butterflies and moths as a case study. Biol. Rev. Camb. Philos. Soc. 96, 2113–2126 (2021).
Google Scholar
Gilbert, A. L. & Miles, D. B. Natural selection on thermal preference, critical thermal maxima and locomotor performance. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 284, 20170536 (2017).
Google Scholar
Eliasson, C. U., Ryrholm, N., Holmér, M., Gilg, K. & Gärdenfors, U. Nationalnyckeln till Sveriges flora och fauna. Fjärilar: Dagfjärilar. Hesperidae – Nymphalidae. (ArtDatabanken, SLU, 2005).
Thomas, J. A. & Wardlaw, J. C. The capacity of a Myrmica ant nest to support a predacious species of Maculinea butterfly. Oecologia 91, 101–109 (1992).
Google Scholar
Vilbas, M. et al. Habitat use of the endangered parasitic butterfly Phengaris arion close to its northern distribution limit. Insect Conserv. Divers. 8, 252–260 (2015).
Google Scholar
Johansson, V., Kindvall, O., Askling, J. & Franzén, M. Extreme weather affects colonization–extinction dynamics and the persistence of a threatened butterfly. J. Appl. Ecol. 57, 1068–1077 (2020).
Google Scholar
Johansson, V., Kindvall, O., Askling, J. & Franzén, M. Intense grazing of calcareous grasslands has negative consequences for the threatened marsh fritillary butterfly. Biol. Cons. 239, 108280 (2019).
Google Scholar
R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical. R version 4.1.1. (2021).
Eubank, R. L. & Speckman, P. Curve fitting by polynomial-trigonometric regression. Biometrika 77, 1–9 (1990).
Google Scholar
Allen, J. C. A modified sine wave method for calculating degree days. Environ. Entomol. 5, 388–396 (1976).
Google Scholar
Wickham, H. & Wickham, M. H. The ggplot package. Google Scholar. http://ftp.uni-bayreuth.de/math/statlib/R/CRAN/doc/packages/ggplot.pdf, (2007).
Lüdecke, D. ggeffects: Tidy data frames of marginal effects from regression models. J. Open Source Softw. 3, 772 (2018).
Google Scholar
Forsman, A. Some like it hot: Intra-population variation in behavioral thermoregulation in color-polymorphic pygmy grasshoppers. Evol. Ecol. 14, 25–38 (2000).
Google Scholar
Forsman, A., Ringblom, K., Civantos, E. & Ahnesjo, J. Coevolution of color pattern and thermoregulatory behavior in polymorphic pygmy grasshoppers Tetrix undulata. Evolution 56, 349–360 (2002).
Google Scholar
Ahnesjö, J. & Forsman, A. Correlated evolution of colour pattern and body size in polymorphic pygmy grasshoppers, Tetrix undulata. J. Evol. Biol. 16, 1308–1318 (2003).
Google Scholar
Zeuss, D., Brandl, R., Brändle, M., Rahbek, C. & Brunzel, S. Global warming favours light-coloured insects in Europe. Nat. Commun. 5, 3874 (2014).
Google Scholar
Heidrich, L. et al. The dark side of Lepidoptera: colour lightness of geometrid moths decreases with increasing latitude. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 27, 407–416 (2018).
Google Scholar
Porter, K. Basking behaviour in larvae of the butterfly Euphydryas aurinia. Oikos 38, 308–312 (1982).
Google Scholar
Rolff, J., Johnston, P. R. & Reynolds, S. Complete metamorphosis of insects. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 374, 20190063 (2019).
Google Scholar
Thomas, J. A., Simcox, D. J. & Clarke, R. T. Successful conservation of a threatened Maculinea butterfly. Science 325, 80–83 (2009).
Google Scholar
Nilsson, M. & Forsman, A. Evolution of conspicuous colouration, body size and gregariousness: A comparative analysis of lepidopteran larvae. Evol. Ecol. 17, 51–66 (2003).
Google Scholar
Mappes, J., Kokko, H., Ojala, K. & Lindström, L. Seasonal changes in predator community switch the direction of selection for prey defences. Nat. Commun. 5, 5016 (2014).
Google Scholar
Bale, J. S. et al. Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores. Glob. Change Biol. 8, 1–16 (2002).
Google Scholar
Otaki, J. M., Hiyama, A., Iwata, M. & Kudo, T. Phenotypic plasticity in the range-margin population of the lycaenid butterfly Zizeeria maha. BMC Evol. Biol. 10, 1–13 (2010).
Google Scholar
Galarza, J. A. et al. Evaluating responses to temperature during pre-metamorphosis and carry-over effects at post-metamorphosis in the wood tiger moth (Arctia plantaginis). Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 374, 20190295 (2019).
Google Scholar
Kingsolver, J. G. The well-temperatured biologist: (American Society of Naturalists Presidential Address). Am. Nat. 174, 755–768 (2009).
Google Scholar
Lafuente, E. & Beldade, P. Genomics of developmental plasticity in animals. Front. Genet. 10, 720 (2019).
Google Scholar
Angilletta, M. J. Jr., Niewiarowski, P. H. & Navas, C. A. The evolution of thermal physiology in ectotherms. J. Therm. Biol 27, 249–268 (2002).
Google Scholar
Posledovich, D., Toftegaard, T., Wiklund, C., Ehrlén, J. & Gotthard, K. Phenological synchrony between a butterfly and its host plants: Experimental test of effects of spring temperature. J. Anim. Ecol. 87, 150–161 (2018).
Google Scholar
Adams, A. Succisa pratensis Moench. J. Ecol. 43, 709–718 (1955).
Google Scholar
Lawton, J. H. & Strong, D. J. Community patterns and competition in folivorous insects. Am. Nat. 118, 317–338 (1981).
Google Scholar
Forsman, A. Effects of genotypic and phenotypic variation on establishment are important for conservation, invasion, and infection biology. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 111, 302–307 (2014).
Google Scholar
Forsman, A., Betzholtz, P.-E. & Franzén, M. Variable coloration is associated with dampened population fluctuations in noctuid moths. Proc. R. Soc. B 282, 1–9 (2015).
Google Scholar
Betzholtz, P. E., Franzén, M. & Forsman, A. Colour pattern variation can inform about extinction risk in moths. Anim. Conserv. 20, 72–79 (2017).
Google Scholar
Klemme, I. & Hanski, I. Heritability of and strong single gene (Pgi) effects on life-history traits in the Glanville fritillary butterfly. J. Evol. Biol. 22, 1944–1953 (2009).
Google Scholar
Mattila, A. L. Thermal biology of flight in a butterfly: genotype, flight metabolism, and environmental conditions. Ecol. Evol. 5, 5539–5551 (2015).
Google Scholar
Russell, B. D. et al. Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems. Biol. Let. 8, 164–166 (2012).
Google Scholar
van Bergen, E. et al. The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation. Conserv. Biol. 34, 1503–1511 (2020).
Google Scholar
Thomas, J. A., Clarke, R. T., Elmes, G. W. & Hochberg, M. E. in Insect Populations in theory and in practice: 19th Symposium of the Royal Entomological Society 10–11 September 1997 at the University of Newcastle (eds J. P. Dempster & I. F. G. McLean) 261–290 (Springer Netherlands, 1998).
Nakonieczny, M., Kedziorski, A. & Michalczyk, K. Apollo butterfly (Parnassius apollo L.) in Europe—Its history, decline and perspectives of conservation. Funct. Ecosyst. Communities 1, 56–79 (2007).
Schweiger, O., Harpke, A., Wiemers, M. & Settele, J. CLIMBER: Climatic niche characteristics of the butterflies in Europe. ZooKeys 367, 65–84 (2014).
Google Scholar
Ashton, S., Gutierrez, D. & Wilson, R. J. Effects of temperature and elevation on habitat use by a rare mountain butterfly: Implications for species responses to climate change. Ecological Entomology 34, 437–446 (2009).
Google Scholar
Klockmann, M. & Fischer, K. Effects of temperature and drought on early life stages in three species of butterflies: Mortality of early life stages as a key determinant of vulnerability to climate change?. Ecol. Evol. 7, 10871–10879 (2017).
Google Scholar
Source: Ecology - nature.com
