IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) (IPCC, 2019).
Urban, M. C. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. Science 348, 571–573 (2015).
Google Scholar
McCauley, D. J. & Pinsky, M. L. Marine defaunation: animal loss in the global ocean. Science 347, 1255641 (2015).
Google Scholar
Hoffmann, A. A. & Sgrò, C. M. Climate change and evolutionary adaptation. Nature 470, 479–485 (2011).
Google Scholar
Somero, G. N. The physiology of climate change: how potentials for acclimatization and genetic adaptation will determine ‘winners’ and ‘losers’. J. Exp. Biol. 213, 912–920 (2010).
Google Scholar
Kearney, M. & Porter, W. Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species’ ranges. Ecol. Lett. 12, 334–350 (2009).
Google Scholar
Foden, W. B. et al. Identifying the world’s most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals. PLoS ONE 8, e65427 (2013).
Google Scholar
West, J. M. & Salm, R. V. Resistance and resilience to coral bleaching: implications for coral reef conservation and management. Conserv. Biol. 17, 956–967 (2003).
Google Scholar
Baskett, M. L., Nisbet, R. M., Kappel, C. V., Mumby, P. J. & Gaines, S. D. Conservation management approaches to protecting the capacity for corals to respond to climate change: a theoretical comparison. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 1229–1246 (2010).
Google Scholar
Beyer, H. L. et al. Risk-sensitive planning for conserving coral reefs under rapid climate change. Conserv. Lett. 11, e12587 (2018).
Google Scholar
Walsworth, T. E. et al. Management for network diversity speeds evolutionary adaptation to climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 632–636 (2019).
Google Scholar
Hughes, T. P. et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene. Science 359, 80–83 (2018).
Google Scholar
Donner, S. D., Skirving, W. J., Little, C. M., Oppenheimer, M. & Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 11, 2251–2265 (2005).
Google Scholar
Frieler, K. et al. Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 165–170 (2012).
Google Scholar
Van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J. A., Manzello, D. & Planes, S. Opposite latitudinal gradients in projected ocean acidification and bleaching impacts on coral reefs. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 103–112 (2014).
Google Scholar
Logan, C. A., Dunne, J. P., Eakin, C. M. & Donner, S. D. Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 125–139 (2014).
Google Scholar
Bay, R. A., Rose, N. H., Logan, C. A. & Palumbi, S. R. Genomic models predict successful coral adaptation if future ocean warming rates are reduced. Sci. Adv. 3, e1701413 (2017).
Google Scholar
Matz, M. V., Treml, E. A. & Haller, B. C. Estimating the potential for coral adaptation to global warming across the Indo-West Pacific. Glob. Change Biol. 26, 3473–3481 (2020).
Google Scholar
Baskett, M. L., Gaines, S. D. & Nisbet, R. M. Symbiont diversity may help coral reefs survive moderate climate change. Ecol. Appl. 19, 3–17 (2009).
Google Scholar
Matz, M. V., Treml, E. A., Aglyamova, G. V. & Bay, L. K. Potential and limits for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral. PLoS Genet. 14, e1007220 (2018).
Google Scholar
Muscatine, L., Falkowski, P. G., Porter, J. W. & Dubinsky, Z. Fate of photosynthetic fixed carbon in light- and shade-adapted colonies of the symbiotic coral Stylophora pistillata. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B. 222, 181–202 (1984).
Google Scholar
Csaszar, N. B., Ralph, P. J., Frankham, R., Berkelmans, R. & van Oppen, M. J. Estimating the potential for adaptation of corals to climate warming. PLoS ONE 5, e9751 (2010).
Google Scholar
Howells, E. J. et al. Coral thermal tolerance shaped by local adaptation of photosymbionts. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 116–120 (2012).
Google Scholar
Buerger, P. et al. Heat-evolved microalgal symbionts increase coral bleaching tolerance. Sci. Adv. 6, eaba2498 (2020).
Google Scholar
Baker, A. C. Flexibility and specificity in coral–algal symbiosis: diversity, ecology, and biogeography of Symbiodinium. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 34, 661–689 (2003).
Berkelmans, R. & van van Oppen, M. J. H. The role of zooxanthellae in the thermal tolerance of corals: a ‘nugget of hope’ for coral reefs in an era of climate change. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 273, 2305–2312 (2006).
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine A research Review of Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs (National Academies Press, 2019).
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine A Decision Framework for Interventions to Increase the Persistence and Resilience of Coral Reefs (National Academies Press, 2019).
Darling, E. S., Alvarez-Filip, L., Oliver, T. A., McClanahan, T. R. & Côté, I. M. Evaluating life-history strategies of reef corals from species traits. Ecol. Lett. 15, 1378–1386 (2012).
Google Scholar
Chan, N. C. S. & Connolly, S. R. Sensitivity of coral calcification to ocean acidification: a meta-analysis. Glob. Change Biol. 19, 282–290 (2013).
Google Scholar
Hughes, T. P. et al. Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages. Nature 556, 492–496 (2018).
Google Scholar
Darling, E. S. et al. Relationships between structural complexity, coral traits, and reef fish assemblages. Coral Reefs 36, 561–575 (2017).
Google Scholar
Howells, E. J. et al. Corals in the hottest reefs in the world exhibit symbiont fidelity not flexibility. Mol. Ecol. 29, 899–911 (2020).
Google Scholar
Madin, J. S., Hughes, T. P. & Connolly, S. R. Calcification, storm damage and population resilience of tabular corals under climate change. PLoS ONE 7, e46637 (2012).
Google Scholar
Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. in Global Warming of 1.5°C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) Ch. 3 (IPCC, 2018).
Darling, E. S. et al. Social–environmental drivers inform strategic management of coral reefs in the Anthropocene. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 1341–1350 (2019).
Google Scholar
Wilkinson, C. R. Global and local threats to coral reef functioning and existence: review and predictions. Mar. Freshw. Res. 50, 867–878 (1999).
Palumbi, S. R., Barshis, D. J., Traylor-Knowles, N. & Bay, R. A. Mechanisms of reef coral resistance to future climate change. Science 344, 895–898 (2014).
Google Scholar
Kleypas, J. A. et al. Larval connectivity across temperature gradients and its potential effect on heat tolerance in coral populations. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 3539–3549 (2016).
Google Scholar
Heron, S. F. et al. Validation of reef-scale thermal stress satellite products for coral bleaching monitoring. Remote Sens. 8, 59 (2016).
Google Scholar
Safaie, A. et al. High frequency temperature variability reduces the risk of coral bleaching. Nat. Commun. 9, 1671 (2018).
Google Scholar
Forster, P. M. et al. Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118, 1139–1150 (2013).
Google Scholar
Ziegler, M., Eguíluz, V. & Duarte, C. et al. Rare symbionts may contribute to the resilience of coral–algal assemblages. ISME J 12, 161–172 (2018).
Google Scholar
Sampayo, E. M., Ridgway, T., Bongaerts, P. & Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Bleaching susceptibility and mortality of corals are determined by fine-scale differences in symbiont type. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 10444–10449 (2008).
Google Scholar
Thornhill, D. J., Xiang, Y. U., Fitt, W. K. & Santos, S. R. Reef endemism, host specificity and temporal stability in populations of symbiotic dinoflagellates from two ecologically dominant Caribbean corals. PLoS ONE 4, e6262 (2009).
Google Scholar
Stat, M., Loh, W. K. W., LaJeunesse, T. C., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. & Carter, D. A. Stability of coral–endosymbiont associations during and after a thermal stress event in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs 28, 709–713 (2009).
Google Scholar
Chakravarti, L. J., Beltran, V. H. & van Oppen, M. J. Rapid thermal adaptation in photosymbionts of reef-building corals. Glob. Change Biol. 23, 4675–4688 (2017).
Google Scholar
Schulte, P. M., Healy, T. M. & Fangue, N. A. Thermal performance curves, phenotypic plasticity, and the time scales of temperature exposure. Integr. Comp. Biol. 51, 691–702 (2011).
Google Scholar
Loya, Y. et al. Coral bleaching: the winners and the losers. Ecol. Lett. 4, 122–131 (2001).
Google Scholar
Langmead, O. & Sheppard, C. Coral reef community dynamics and disturbance: a simulation model. Ecol. Modell. 175, 271–290 (2004).
Google Scholar
Chancerelle, Y. Methods to estimate actual surface areas of scleractinian coral at the colony- and community-scale. Oceanol. Acta 23, 211–219 (2000).
Google Scholar
Falkowski, P. G., Dubinsky, Z., Muscatine, L. & Porter, J. W. Light and the bioenergetics of a symbiotic coral. Bioscience 34, 705–709 (1984).
Google Scholar
Huston, M. Variation in coral growth rates with depth at Discovery Bay, Jamaica. Coral Reefs 4, 19–25 (1985).
Google Scholar
Hoogenboom, M., Beraud, E. & Ferrier-Pagès, C. Relationship between symbiont density and photosynthetic carbon acquisition in the temperate coral Cladocora caespitosa. Coral Reefs 29, 21–29 (2010).
Google Scholar
Cunning, R. & Baker, A. C. Not just who, but how many: the importance of partner abundance in reef coral symbioses. Front. Microbiol. 5, 400 (2014).
Google Scholar
McClanahan, T., Muthiga, N. & Mangi, S. Coral and algal changes after the 1998 coral bleaching: interaction with reef management and herbivores on Kenyan reefs. Coral Reefs 19, 380–391 (2001).
Google Scholar
Fitt, W. K., McFarland, F. K., Warner, M. E. & Chilcoat, G. C. Seasonal patterns of tissue biomass and densities of symbiotic dinoflagellates in reef corals and relation to coral bleaching. Limnol. Oceanogr. 45, 677–685 (2000).
Google Scholar
Eppley, R. W. Temperature and phytoplankton growth in the sea. Fish. Bull. 70, 1063–1085 (1972).
Jon, N. Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: a complex adaptive systems approach. Limnol. Oceanogr. 49, 1269–1277 (2004).
Google Scholar
Mousseau, T. A. & Roff, D. A. Natural selection and the heritability of fitness components. Heredity 59, 181–197 (1987).
Google Scholar
Lynch, M. The rate of polygenic mutation. Genet. Res. 51, 137–148 (1988).
Google Scholar
Donner, S. D., Rickbeil, G. J. & Heron, S. F. A new, high-resolution global mass coral bleaching database. PLoS ONE 12, e0175490 (2017).
Google Scholar
Cunning, R., Gillette, P., Capo, T., Galvez, K. & Baker, A. C. Growth tradeoffs associated with thermotolerant symbionts in the coral Pocillopora damicornis are lost in warmer oceans. Coral Reefs 34, 155–160 (2015).
Google Scholar
Silverstein, R. N., Cunning, R. & Baker, A. C. Change in algal symbiont communities after bleaching, not prior heat exposure, increases heat tolerance of reef corals. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 236–249 (2015).
Google Scholar
Dunne, J. P. et al. GFDL’s ESM2 global coupled climate–carbon Earth system models part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. J. Clim. 25, 6646–6665 (2012).
Google Scholar
Dunne, J. P. et al. GFDL’s ESM2 global coupled climate–carbon Earth system models Part II: carbon system formulation and baseline simulation characteristics. J. Clim. 26, 2247–2267 (2012).
Google Scholar
Lough, J. M. & Barnes, D. J. Environmental controls on growth of the massive coral Porites. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol. 245, 225–243 (2000).
Google Scholar
UNEP-WCMC, WorldFish Centre, WRI & TNC. Global Distribution of Warm-water Coral Reefs, Compiled From Multiple Sources Including the Millennium Coral Reef Mapping Project. Version 4.1 (UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre. Data, 2021); https://doi.org/10.34892/t2wk-5t34
van Hooidonk, R., Maynard, J. A. & Planes, S. Temporary refugia for coral reefs in a warming world. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 508–511 (2013).
Google Scholar
Fitt, W., Brown, B., Warner, M. & Dunne, R. Coral bleaching: interpretation of thermal tolerance limits and thermal thresholds in tropical corals. Coral Reefs 20, 51–65 (2001).
Google Scholar
González-Espinosa, P. C. & Donner, S. D. Predicting cold-water bleaching in corals: role of temperature, and potential integration of light exposure. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 642, 133–146 (2020).
Google Scholar
Source: Ecology - nature.com
