Meredith, M. et al. in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Ch. 3 (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2019).
Blok, D. et al. Shrub expansion may reduce summer permafrost thaw in Siberian tundra. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 1296–1305 (2010). A field study in which dwarf-shrub canopies were removed experimentally, resulting in increased thaw depths, thereby, underscoring the protective role of vegetation cover on permafrost.
van Huissteden, J. Thawing Permafrost: Permafrost Carbon in a Warming Arctic (Springer, 2020).
Jorgenson, M. et al. Resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change. Can. J. For. Res. 40, 1219–1236 (2010).
Kropp, H. et al. Shallow soils are warmer under trees and tall shrubs across Arctic and Boreal ecosystems. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 015001 (2020).
Myers-Smith, I. H. & Hik, D. S. Shrub canopies influence soil temperatures but not nutrient dynamics: an experimental test of tundra snow–shrub interactions. Ecol. Evol. 3, 3683–3700 (2013).
Sturm, M. et al. Snow–shrub interactions in Arctic tundra: a hypothesis with climatic implications. J. Clim. 14, 336–344 (2001).
Sturm, M. et al. Winter biological processes could help convert arctic tundra to shrubland. BioScience 55, 17–26 (2005).
Chapin, F. S. et al. Role of land-surface changes in Arctic summer warming. Science 310, 657–660 (2005).
Loranty, M. M. et al. Reviews and syntheses: Changing ecosystem influences on soil thermal regimes in northern high-latitude permafrost regions. Biogeosciences 15, 5287–5313 (2018). Review article showing how Arctic ecosystem processes can influence soil thermal dynamics in permafrost soil.
Shur, Y. L. & Jorgenson, M. T. Patterns of permafrost formation and degradation in relation to climate and ecosystems. Permafr. Periglac. Process. 18, 7–19 (2007).
Chadburn, S. E. et al. An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 340–344 (2017).
Smith, S. L., O’Neill, H. B., Isaksen, K., Noetzli, J. & Romanovsky, V. E. The changing thermal state of permafrost. Nat. Rev. Earth. Environ. 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00240-1 (2022).
Ksenofontov, S., Backhaus, N. & Schaepman-Strub, G. ‘There are new species’: indigenous knowledge of biodiversity change in Arctic Yakutia. Polar Geogr. 42, 34–57 (2019).
Schuur, E. A. et al. Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle. BioScience 58, 701–714 (2008).
Kokelj, S. V. & Jorgenson, M. Advances in thermokarst research. Permafr. Periglac. Process. 24, 108–119 (2013).
Keuper, F. et al. A frozen feast: thawing permafrost increases plant-available nitrogen in subarctic peatlands. Glob. Change Biol. 18, 1998–2007 (2012).
Salmon, V. G. et al. Nitrogen availability increases in a tundra ecosystem during five years of experimental permafrost thaw. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 1927–1941 (2016).
Blume-Werry, G., Milbau, A., Teuber, L. M., Johansson, M. & Dorrepaal, E. Dwelling in the deep–strongly increased root growth and rooting depth enhance plant interactions with thawing permafrost soil. New Phytol. 223, 1328–1339 (2019).
Wang, P. et al. Above- and below-ground responses of four tundra plant functional types to deep soil heating and surface soil fertilization. J. Ecol. 105, 947–957 (2017).
Nauta, A. L. et al. Permafrost collapse after shrub removal shifts tundra ecosystem to a methane source. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 67–70 (2015).
Osterkamp, T. et al. Physical and ecological changes associated with warming permafrost and thermokarst in interior Alaska. Permafr. Periglac. Process. 20, 235–256 (2009).
Schuur, E. A. et al. Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback. Nature 520, 171–179 (2015).
Koven, C. D. et al. Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 14769–14774 (2011).
Abbott, B. W. & Jones, J. B. Permafrost collapse alters soil carbon stocks, respiration, CH4, and N2O in upland tundra. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 4570–4587 (2015).
Voigt, C. et al. Warming of subarctic tundra increases emissions of all three important greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Glob. Change Biol. 23, 3121–3138 (2017).
Lenton, T. M. et al. Climate tipping points – too risky to bet against. Nature 575, 592–595 (2019).
Miner, K. R. Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3 (2022).
Google Scholar
Peterson, K. & Billings, W. Tundra vegetational patterns and succession in relation to microtopography near Atkasook, Alaska. Arct. Alp. Res. 12, 473–482 (1980).
Bliss, L. in North American Terrestrial Vegetation (eds Barbour, M. G. & Billings W. D.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1988).
Walker, D. A. et al. The circumpolar Arctic vegetation map. J. Veg. Sci. 16, 267–282 (2005).
Frost, G. V., Epstein, H. E. & Walker, D. A. Regional and landscape-scale variability of Landsat-observed vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberian tundra. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 025004 (2014).
Walker, D. A. et al. Environment, vegetation and greenness (NDVI) along the North America and Eurasia Arctic transects. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 015504 (2012).
Raynolds, M. K. et al. A raster version of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (CAVM). Remote Sens. Environ. 232, 111297 (2019).
Chernov, Y. I. & Matveyeva, N. in Polar Alpine Tundra (ed. Wielgolaski, F. E.) 361–507 (Elsevier, 1997).
Elvebakk, A. in The Species Concept in the High North: A Panarctic Flora Initiative (eds Nordal, I. & Razzhivin, V. Y.) 81–112 (The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, 1999).
Yurtsev, B. A. Floristic division of the Arctic. J. Veg. Sci. 5, 765–776 (1994).
Elmendorf, S. C. et al. Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 453–457 (2012). A meta-analysis of field-observed vegetation changes from 46 polar sites indicating widespread increases of shrub vegetation and increased plant size.
Iversen, C. M. et al. The unseen iceberg: plant roots in arctic tundra. New Phytol. 205, 34–58 (2015).
Hobbie, J. E. & Hobbie, E. A. 15N in symbiotic fungi and plants estimates nitrogen and carbon flux rates in Arctic tundra. Ecology 87, 816–822 (2006).
Nielsen, U. N. & Wall, D. H. The future of soil invertebrate communities in polar regions: different climate change responses in the Arctic and Antarctic? Ecol. Lett. 16, 409–419 (2013).
Clemmensen, K. E. et al. A tipping point in carbon storage when forest expands into tundra is related to mycorrhizal recycling of nitrogen. Ecol. Lett. 24, 1193–1204 (2021).
Minke, M., Donner, N., Karpov, N., de Klerk, P. & Joosten, H. Patterns in vegetation composition, surface height and thaw depth in polygon mires in the Yakutian Arctic (NE Siberia): a microtopographical characterisation of the active layer. Permafr. Periglac. Process. 20, 357–368 (2009).
Liljedahl, A. K. et al. Pan-Arctic ice-wedge degradation in warming permafrost and its influence on tundra hydrology. Nat. Geosci. 9, 312–318 (2016).
Grunberg, I., Wilcox, E. J., Zwieback, S., Marsh, P. & Boike, J. Linking tundra vegetation, snow, soil temperature, and permafrost. Biogeosciences 17, 4261–4279 (2020). A field study reporting that large variations in soil temperatures and thaw depths can be explained by vegetation-mediated differences in snow height.
Magnússon, R. I. et al. Rapid vegetation succession and coupled permafrost dynamics in Arctic thaw ponds in the Siberian lowland tundra. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 125, e2019JG005618 (2020).
Jorgenson, M. et al. Role of ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks in recent ice wedge degradation and stabilization. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 120, 2280–2297 (2015). Outlines the role of ground ice and vegetation succession in thermokarst terrain, including first estimates of recovery times.
Bjorkman, A. D. et al. Status and trends in Arctic vegetation: evidence from experimental warming and long-term monitoring. Ambio 49, 678–692 (2020). A meta-analysis of plant species responses to experimental climate warming across Arctic sites, finding that shrubs and graminoids generally responded positively to warming, whereas lichens and bryophytes responded more negatively.
Frost, G. V. et al. Arctic Report Card 2020: Tundra Greenness. https://doi.org/10.25923/46rm-0w23 (NOAA, 2020). Provides an annual update of Arctic NDVI, offering a long-standing record of Arctic greening and browning.
Myers-Smith, I. H. et al. Complexity revealed in the greening of the Arctic. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 106–117 (2020). Review article outlining complexity in Arctic greening and browning dynamics. The temporal and spatial scale of spectral data and the role of non-vegetation-related processes and ground-truthing remains essential.
Berner, L. T. et al. Summer warming explains widespread but not uniform greening in the Arctic tundra biome. Nat. Commun. 11, 4621 (2020).
Sistla, S. A. et al. Long-term warming restructures Arctic tundra without changing net soil carbon storage. Nature 497, 615–618 (2013).
Bhatt, U. S. et al. Circumpolar Arctic Tundra vegetation change is linked to sea ice decline. Earth Interact. 14, 1–20 (2010).
Oechel, W. C. & Billings, W. in Arctic Ecosystems in a Changing Climate: an Ecophysiological Perspective (eds Chapin, F. S. III et al.) 139–168 (Academic Press, 1992).
Shaver, G. R. et al. Species composition interacts with fertilizer to control long-term change in tundra productivity. Ecology 82, 3163–3181 (2001).
Bret-Harte, M. S., Shaver, G. R. & Chapin, F. S. III Primary and secondary stem growth in arctic shrubs: implications for community response to environmental change. J. Ecol. 90, 251–267 (2002).
Mack, M. C., Schuur, E. A. G., Bret-Harte, M. S., Shaver, G. R. & Chapin, F. S. Ecosystem carbon storage in arctic tundra reduced by long-term nutrient fertilization. Nature 431, 440–443 (2004).
Myers-Smith, I. H. et al. Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 887–891 (2015).
McGuire, A. D. et al. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change. Ecol. Monogr. 79, 523–555 (2009).
van der Kolk, H.-J., Heijmans, M. M., van Huissteden, J., Pullens, J. W. & Berendse, F. Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw. Biogeosciences 13, 6229–6245 (2016).
Myers-Smith, I. H. et al. Eighteen years of ecological monitoring reveals multiple lines of evidence for tundra vegetation change. Ecol. Monogr. 89, e01351 (2019).
Leffler, A. J., Klein, E. S., Oberbauer, S. F. & Welker, J. M. Coupled long-term summer warming and deeper snow alters species composition and stimulates gross primary productivity in tussock tundra. Oecologia 181, 287–297 (2016).
Euskirchen, E. et al. Importance of recent shifts in soil thermal dynamics on growing season length, productivity, and carbon sequestration in terrestrial high-latitude ecosystems. Glob. Change Biol. 12, 731–750 (2006).
McGuire, A. D. et al. Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 3882–3887 (2018).
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Understanding Northern Latitude Vegetation Greening and Browning: Proceedings of a Workshop (The National Academies Press, 2019).
Phoenix, G. K. & Bjerke, J. W. Arctic browning: extreme events and trends reversing arctic greening. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 2960–2962 (2016).
Bokhorst, S. et al. Impacts of extreme winter warming in the sub-Arctic: growing season responses of dwarf shrub heathland. Glob. Change Biol. 14, 2603–2612 (2008).
Bret-Harte, M. S. et al. The response of Arctic vegetation and soils following an unusually severe tundra fire. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 368, 20120490 (2013).
Farquharson, L. M. et al. Climate change drives widespread and rapid thermokarst development in very cold permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 6681–6689 (2019).
Turetsky et al. Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release. Nature 569, 32–34 (2019). Reveals that abrupt thaw of permafrost could double the estimated future release of greenhouse gases from permafrost soils compared with scenarios of gradual thaw.
Bokhorst, S. F., Bjerke, J. W., Tømmervik, H., Callaghan, T. V. & Phoenix, G. K. Winter warming events damage sub-Arctic vegetation: consistent evidence from an experimental manipulation and a natural event. J. Ecol. 97, 1408–1415 (2009).
Bjerke, J. W. et al. Record-low primary productivity and high plant damage in the Nordic Arctic Region in 2012 caused by multiple weather events and pest outbreaks. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 084006 (2014).
Treharne, R., Bjerke, J. W., Tømmervik, H., Stendardi, L. & Phoenix, G. K. Arctic browning: impacts of extreme climatic events on heathland ecosystem CO2 fluxes. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 489–503 (2019).
Olofsson, J., Tommervik, H. & Callaghan, T. V. Vole and lemming activity observed from space. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 880–883 (2012).
Lara, M. J., Nitze, I., Grosse, G., Martin, P. & McGuire, A. D. Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions. Sci. Rep. 8, 2345 (2018).
Verdonen, M., Berner, L. T., Forbes, B. C. & Kumpula, T. Periglacial vegetation dynamics in Arctic Russia: decadal analysis of tundra regeneration on landslides with time series satellite imagery. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 105020 (2020).
Assmann, J. J., Myers-Smith, I. H., Kerby, J. T., Cunliffe, A. M. & Daskalova, G. N. Drone data reveal heterogeneity in tundra greenness and phenology not captured by satellites. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 125002 (2020).
Raynolds, M. K. & Walker, D. A. Increased wetness confounds Landsat-derived NDVI trends in the central Alaska North Slope region, 1985–2011. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 085004 (2016).
Magnússon, R. Í. et al. Shrub decline and expansion of wetland vegetation revealed by very high resolution land cover change detection in the Siberian lowland tundra. Sci. Total Environ. 782, 146877 (2021).
Nitze, I. & Grosse, G. Detection of landscape dynamics in the Arctic Lena Delta with temporally dense Landsat time-series stacks. Remote Sens. Environ. 181, 27–41 (2016).
Chen, Y., Hu, F. S. & Lara, M. J. Divergent shrub-cover responses driven by climate, wildfire, and permafrost interactions in Arctic tundra ecosystems. Glob. Change Biol. 27, 652–663 (2021).
Huete, A. et al. Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS vegetation indices. Remote Sens. Environ. 83, 195–213 (2002).
Siewert, M. B. & Olofsson, J. Scale-dependency of Arctic ecosystem properties revealed by UAV. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 094030 (2020).
Beamish, A. et al. Recent trends and remaining challenges for optical remote sensing of Arctic tundra vegetation: a review and outlook. Remote Sens. Environ. 246, 111872 (2020).
Blok, D. et al. The response of Arctic vegetation to the summer climate: relation between shrub cover, NDVI, surface albedo and temperature. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 035502 (2011).
Boelman, N. T., Gough, L., McLaren, J. R. & Greaves, H. Does NDVI reflect variation in the structural attributes associated with increasing shrub dominance in arctic tundra? Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 035501 (2011).
Sturm, M., Racine, C. & Tape, K. Climate change – increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic. Nature 411, 546–547 (2001).
Tape, K., Sturm, M. & Racine, C. The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan-Arctic. Glob. Change Biol. 12, 686–702 (2006).
Jorgenson, J. C., Raynolds, M. K., Reynolds, J. H. & Benson, A. M. Twenty-five year record of changes in plant cover on tundra of northeastern Alaska. Arct. Antarctic Alp. Res. 47, 785–806 (2015).
Jorgenson, J. C., Jorgenson, M. T., Boldenow, M. L. & Orndahl, K. M. Landscape change detected over a half century in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge using high-resolution aerial imagery. Remote Sens. 10, 1305 (2018).
Hobbie, J. E. et al. Ecosystem responses to climate change at a Low Arctic and a High Arctic long-term research site. Ambio 46, 160–173 (2017).
Virkkala, A.-M., Abdi, A. M., Luoto, M. & Metcalfe, D. B. Identifying multidisciplinary research gaps across Arctic terrestrial gradients. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 124061 (2019).
Ropars, P. & Boudreau, S. Shrub expansion at the forest-tundra ecotone: spatial heterogeneity linked to local topography. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 015501 (2012).
Ropars, P., Levesque, E. & Boudreau, S. How do climate and topography influence the greening of the forest-tundra ecotone in northern Québec? A dendrochronological analysis of Betula glandulosa. J. Ecol. 103, 679–690 (2015).
Tremblay, B., Levesque, E. & Boudreau, S. Recent expansion of erect shrubs in the Low Arctic: evidence from Eastern Nunavik. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 035501 (2012).
Boulanger-Lapointe, N., Levesque, E., Boudreau, S., Henry, G. H. R. & Schmidt, N. M. Population structure and dynamics of Arctic willow (Salix arctica) in the High Arctic. J. Biogeogr. 41, 1967–1978 (2014).
Frost, G. V., Epstein, H. E., Walker, D. A., Matyshak, G. & Ermokhina, K. Patterned-ground facilitates shrub expansion in Low Arctic tundra. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 015035 (2013).
Lantz, T. C., Kokelj, S. V., Gergel, S. E. & Henry, G. H. Relative impacts of disturbance and temperature: persistent changes in microenvironment and vegetation in retrogressive thaw slumps. Glob. Change Biol. 15, 1664–1675 (2009).
Huebner, D. C. & Bret-Harte, M. S. Microsite conditions in retrogressive thaw slumps may facilitate increased seedling recruitment in the Alaskan Low Arctic. Ecol. Evol. 9, 1880–1897 (2019).
Lantz, T. C., Marsh, P. & Kokelj, S. V. Recent shrub proliferation in the Mackenzie Delta uplands and microclimatic implications. Ecosystems 16, 47–59 (2013).
Hu, F. S. et al. Arctic tundra fires: natural variability and responses to climate change. Front. Ecol. Environ. 13, 369–377 (2015).
Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P. & Lister, D. Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset. Sci. Data 7, 109 (2020).
Didan, K. MYD13Q1 MODIS/Aqua vegetation indices 16-day L3 global 250 m SIN grid V006. NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MYD13Q1.006 (2015).
Google Scholar
Didan, K. MOD13Q1 MODIS/Terra vegetation indices 16-day L3 global 250 m SIN grid V006. NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD13Q1.006 (2015).
Google Scholar
Dorigo, W. et al. ESA CCI Soil Moisture for improved Earth system understanding: State-of-the art and future directions. Remote Sens. Environ. 203, 185–215 (2017).
Brown, J., Ferrians, O. Jr, Heginbottom, J. A. & Melnikov, E. Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground-ice Conditions (US Geological Survey, 1997).
Jones, G. A. & Henry, G. H. Primary plant succession on recently deglaciated terrain in the Canadian High Arctic. J. Biogeogr. 30, 277–296 (2003).
Cornelissen, J. H. C. et al. Global change and arctic ecosystems: is lichen decline a function of increases in vascular plant biomass? J. Ecol. 89, 984–994 (2001).
Aguirre, D., Benhumea, A. E. & McLaren, J. R. Shrub encroachment affects tundra ecosystem properties through their living canopy rather than increased litter inputs. Soil Biol. Biochem. 153, 108121 (2021).
Gornall, J. L., Jonsdottir, I. S., Woodin, S. J. & Van der Wal, R. Arctic mosses govern below-ground environment and ecosystem processes. Oecologia 153, 931–941 (2007).
Soudzilovskaia, N. A., Bodegom, P. M. & Cornelissen, J. H. Dominant bryophyte control over high-latitude soil temperature fluctuations predicted by heat transfer traits, field moisture regime and laws of thermal insulation. Funct. Ecol. 27, 1442–1454 (2013).
Blok, D. et al. The cooling capacity of mosses: controls on water and energy fluxes in a Siberian tundra site. Ecosystems 14, 1055–1065 (2011).
Belke-Brea, M., Domine, F., Barrere, M., Picard, G. & Arnaud, L. Impact of shrubs on winter surface albedo and snow specific surface area at a low Arctic site: In situ measurements and simulations. J. Clim. 33, 597–609 (2020).
Wilcox, E. J. et al. Tundra shrub expansion may amplify permafrost thaw by advancing snowmelt timing. Arct. Sci. 5, 202–217 (2019).
Frost, G. V., Epstein, H. E., Walker, D. A., Matyshak, G. & Ermokhina, K. Seasonal and long-term changes to active-layer temperatures after tall shrubland expansion and succession in Arctic tundra. Ecosystems 21, 507–520 (2018).
Wilson, M. A., Burn, C. & Humphreys, E. in Cold Regions Engineering 2019 (eds Bilodeau, J.-P., Nadeau, D. F., Fortier, D. & Conciatori, D.) 687–695 (American Society of Civil Engineers, 2019).
Liljedahl, A. K., Timling, I., Frost, G. V. & Daanen, R. P. Arctic riparian shrub expansion indicates a shift from streams gaining water to those that lose flow. Commun. Earth Environ. 1, 50 (2020).
Paradis, M., Lévesque, E. & Boudreau, S. Greater effect of increasing shrub height on winter versus summer soil temperature. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 085005 (2016).
Beringer, J., Chapin, F. S., Thompson, C. C. & McGuire, A. D. Surface energy exchanges along a tundra-forest transition and feedbacks to climate. Agric. For. Meteorol. 131, 143–161 (2005).
Kemppinen, J. et al. Dwarf shrubs impact tundra soils: drier, colder, and less organic carbon. Ecosystems 24, 1378–1392 (2021). Quantifies the effects of shrub abundance on the soil thermal regime using a distinction between a rough, tall-shrub canopy and an aerodynamic, dwarf-shrub canopy.
Jorgenson, M. T., Ely, C. & Terenzi, J. in Shared Science Needs: Report from the Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative Science Workshop (eds Reynolds, J. H. & Wiggins, H. V.) 130–137 (2012).
Sturm, M., Douglas, T., Racine, C. & Liston, G. E. Changing snow and shrub conditions affect albedo with global implications. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 110, G01004 (2005).
Zhang, T. Influence of the seasonal snow cover on the ground thermal regime: an overview. Rev. Geophys. 43, RG4002 (2005).
Domine, F., Barrere, M. & Morin, S. The growth of shrubs on high Arctic tundra at Bylot Island: impact on snow physical properties and permafrost thermal regime. Biogeosciences 13, 6471–6486 (2016).
Lawrence, D. M. & Swenson, S. C. Permafrost response to increasing Arctic shrub abundance depends on the relative influence of shrubs on local soil cooling versus large-scale climate warming. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 045504 (2011).
Barrere, M., Domine, F., Belke-Brea, M. & Sarrazin, D. Snowmelt events in autumn can reduce or cancel the soil warming effect of snow–vegetation interactions in the Arctic. J. Clim. 31, 9507–9518 (2018).
Loranty, M. M., Goetz, S. J. & Beck, P. S. Tundra vegetation effects on pan-Arctic albedo. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 024014 (2011).
Bonfils, C. et al. On the influence of shrub height and expansion on northern high latitude climate. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 015503 (2012).
Williamson, S. N., Barrio, I. C., Hik, D. S. & Gamon, J. A. Phenology and species determine growing-season albedo increase at the altitudinal limit of shrub growth in the sub-Arctic. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 3621–3631 (2016).
Juszak, I., Eugster, W., Heijmans, M. & Schaepman-Strub, G. Contrasting radiation and soil heat fluxes in Arctic shrub and wet sedge tundra. Biogeosciences 13, 4049–4064 (2016).
Göckede, M. et al. Negative feedback processes following drainage slow down permafrost degradation. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 3254–3266 (2019).
Bonan, G. Ecological Climatology: Concepts and Applications (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2015).
Eugster, W. et al. Land–atmosphere energy exchange in Arctic tundra and boreal forest: available data and feedbacks to climate. Glob. Change Biol. 6, 84–115 (2000).
Liljedahl, A. et al. Nonlinear controls on evapotranspiration in arctic coastal wetlands. Biogeosciences 8, 3375–3389 (2011).
Zwieback, S., Chang, Q., Marsh, P. & Berg, A. Shrub tundra ecohydrology: rainfall interception is a major component of the water balance. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 055005 (2019).
Subin, Z. M. et al. Effects of soil moisture on the responses of soil temperatures to climate change in cold regions. J. Clim. 26, 3139–3158 (2013).
Aalto, J., Scherrer, D., Lenoir, J., Guisan, A. & Luoto, M. Biogeophysical controls on soil-atmosphere thermal differences: implications on warming Arctic ecosystems. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 074003 (2018).
Asmus, A. L. et al. Shrub shading moderates the effects of weather on arthropod activity in arctic tundra. Ecol. Entomol. 43, 647–655 (2018).
Hinkel, K., Paetzold, F., Nelson, F. & Bockheim, J. Patterns of soil temperature and moisture in the active layer and upper permafrost at Barrow, Alaska: 1993–1999. Glob. Planet. Change 29, 293–309 (2001).
Douglas, T. A., Turetsky, M. R. & Koven, C. D. Increased rainfall stimulates permafrost thaw across a variety of Interior Alaskan boreal ecosystems. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci. 3, 28 (2020).
Neumann, R. B. et al. Warming effects of spring rainfall increase methane emissions from thawing permafrost. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 1393–1401 (2019).
Aartsma, P., Asplund, J., Odland, A., Reinhardt, S. & Renssen, H. Microclimatic comparison of lichen heaths and shrubs: shrubification generates atmospheric heating but subsurface cooling during the growing season. Biogeosciences 18, 1577–1599 (2021).
Fisher, J. P. et al. The influence of vegetation and soil characteristics on active-layer thickness of permafrost soils in boreal forest. Glob. Change Biol. 22, 3127–3140 (2016).
Van Cleve, K. et al. Taiga ecosystems in interior Alaska. BioScience 33, 39–44 (1983).
Kade, A., Romanovsky, V. & Walker, D. The n-factor of nonsorted circles along a climate gradient in Arctic Alaska. Permafr. Periglac. Process. 17, 279–289 (2006).
Atchley, A. L., Coon, E. T., Painter, S. L., Harp, D. R. & Wilson, C. J. Influences and interactions of inundation, peat, and snow on active layer thickness. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 5116–5123 (2016).
Klene, A. E., Nelson, F. E., Shiklomanov, N. I. & Hinkel, K. M. The n-factor in natural landscapes: variability of air and soil-surface temperatures, Kuparuk River Basin, Alaska, USA. Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res. 33, 140–148 (2001).
van Everdingen, R. O. Multi-Language Glossary of Permafrost and Related Ground-Ice Terms (National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology, 2005).
Iwahana, G. et al. Geocryological characteristics of the upper permafrost in a tundra-forest transition of the Indigirka River Valley, Russia. Polar Sci. 8, 96–113 (2014).
Lewkowicz, A. G. & Way, R. G. Extremes of summer climate trigger thousands of thermokarst landslides in a High Arctic environment. Nat. Commun. 10, 1329 (2019).
Kanevskiy, M. et al. Degradation and stabilization of ice wedges: implications for assessing risk of thermokarst in northern Alaska. Geomorphology 297, 20–42 (2017).
Olefeldt, D. et al. Circumpolar distribution and carbon storage of thermokarst landscapes. Nat. Commun. 7, 13043 (2016).
Jorgenson, M., Shur, Y. L. & Pullman, E. R. Abrupt increase in permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L02503 (2006).
Stieglitz, M., Déry, S., Romanovsky, V. & Osterkamp, T. The role of snow cover in the warming of arctic permafrost. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 1721 (2003).
Anisimov, O. & Zimov, S. Thawing permafrost and methane emission in Siberia: Synthesis of observations, reanalysis, and predictive modeling. Ambio 50, 2050–2059 (2021).
Tei, S. et al. An extreme flood caused by a heavy snowfall over the Indigirka River basin in Northeastern Siberia. Hydrol. Process. 34, 522–537 (2020).
Jones, B. M. et al. Recent Arctic tundra fire initiates widespread thermokarst development. Sci. Rep. 5, 15865 (2015).
Fraser, R. H. et al. Climate sensitivity of high Arctic permafrost terrain demonstrated by widespread ice-wedge thermokarst on Banks Island. Remote Sens. 10, 954 (2018).
Kokelj, S. V., Lantz, T. C., Tunnicliffe, J., Segal, R. & Lacelle, D. Climate-driven thaw of permafrost preserved glacial landscapes, northwestern Canada. Geology 45, 371–374 (2017).
Raynolds, M. K. et al. Cumulative geoecological effects of 62 years of infrastructure and climate change in ice-rich permafrost landscapes, Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 1211–1224 (2014).
Yang, M., Nelson, F. E., Shiklomanov, N. I., Guo, D. & Wan, G. Permafrost degradation and its environmental effects on the Tibetan Plateau: a review of recent research. Earth Sci. Rev. 103, 31–44 (2010).
Payette, S., Delwaide, A., Caccianiga, M. & Beauchemin, M. Accelerated thawing of subarctic peatland permafrost over the last 50 years. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L18208 (2004).
French, H. & Shur, Y. The principles of cryostratigraphy. Earth Sci. Rev. 101, 190–206 (2010).
Burn, C. R. & Friele, P. Geomorphology, vegetation succession, soil characteristics and permafrost in retrogressive thaw slumps near Mayo, Yukon Territory. Arctic 42, 31–40 (1989).
Walvoord, M. A. & Kurylyk, B. L. Hydrologic impacts of thawing permafrost — a review. Vadose Zone J. 15, vzj2016-01 (2016).
Zona, D. et al. Characterization of the carbon fluxes of a vegetated drained lake basin chronosequence on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 1870–1882 (2010).
Jorgenson, M. T. & Shur, Y. Evolution of lakes and basins in northern Alaska and discussion of the thaw lake cycle. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 112, F02S17 (2007).
Cray, H. A. & Pollard, W. H. Vegetation recovery patterns following permafrost disturbance in a Low Arctic setting: case study of Herschel Island, Yukon, Canada. Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res. 47, 99–113 (2015).
Baltzer, J. L., Veness, T., Chasmer, L. E., Sniderhan, A. E. & Quinton, W. L. Forests on thawing permafrost: fragmentation, edge effects, and net forest loss. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 824–834 (2014).
Scheffer, M., Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E. H. & Chapin, F. S. Thresholds for boreal biome transitions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 21384–21389 (2012).
Nitze, I., Grosse, G., Jones, B. M., Romanovsky, V. E. & Boike, J. Remote sensing quantifies widespread abundance of permafrost region disturbances across the Arctic and Subarctic. Nat. Commun. 9, 5423 (2018).
Elmendorf, S. C. et al. Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time. Ecol. Lett. 15, 164–175 (2012).
Strauss, J. et al. Deep Yedoma permafrost: a synthesis of depositional characteristics and carbon vulnerability. Earth Sci. Rev. 172, 75–86 (2017).
Hjort, J. E. A. Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure. Nat. Rev. Earth. Environ. 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00247-8 (2022).
Kumpula, T., Pajunen, A., Kaarlejärvi, E., Forbes, B. C. & Stammler, F. Land use and land cover change in Arctic Russia: Ecological and social implications of industrial development. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 550–562 (2011).
Nitzbon, J. et al. Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate. Nat. Commun. 11, 2201 (2020).
Lawrence, D. M., Koven, C. D., Swenson, S. C., Riley, W. J. & Slater, A. Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 094011 (2015).
Bintanja, R. & Andry, O. Towards a rain-dominated Arctic. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 263–267 (2017).
Mekonnen, Z. A., Riley, W. J., Grant, R. F. & Romanovsky, V. E. Changes in precipitation and air temperature contribute comparably to permafrost degradation in a warmer climate. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 024008 (2021).
Mikhailov, I. Changes in the soil-plant cover of the high Arctic of Eastern Siberia. Eurasian Soil. Sci. 53, 715–723 (2020).
Frost, G. V. et al. Multi-decadal patterns of vegetation succession after tundra fire on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 025003 (2020).
Whitley, M. A. et al. Assessment of LiDAR and spectral techniques for high-resolution mapping of sporadic permafrost on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Remote Sens. 10, 258 (2018).
Source: Ecology - nature.com
