Jolly, W. M. et al. Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013. Nat. Commun. 6, 1–11 (2015).
Google Scholar
Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A., Boschetti, L., Zubkova, M. & Kolden, C. A. Global patterns of interannual climate-fire relationships. Glob. Change Biol. 24, 5164–5175 (2018).
Google Scholar
Giorgi, F. Climate change hot-spots. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L08707 (2006).
Google Scholar
Andela, N. et al. A human-driven decline in global burned area. Science 356, 1356–1362 (2017).
Google Scholar
IPCC In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (Cambridge University Press, 2021).
Dupuy, J. et al. Climate change impact on future wildfire danger and activity in southern Europe: A review. Ann. For. Sci. 77, 35 (2020).
Google Scholar
Turco, M. et al. Decreasing fires in mediterranean Europe. PLoS ONE 11, e0150663 (2016).
Google Scholar
Turco, M. et al. Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models. Nat. Commun. 9, 1–9 (2018).
Google Scholar
Ruffault, J. et al. Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin. Sci. Rep. 10, 13790 (2020).
Google Scholar
Moreira, F. et al. Wildfire management in Mediterranean-type regions: Paradigm change needed. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 011001 (2020).
Google Scholar
Di Giuseppe, F. et al. Fire Weather Index: The skill provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 20, 2365–2378 (2020).
Google Scholar
Van Wagner, C. E. Development and structure of the Canadian forest fireweather index system. Canadian Forestry Service, Forestry Technical Report 35 (1987).
de Groot, W. J. et al. Development of the Indonesian and Malaysian fire danger rating systems. Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Global Change. 12, 165–180 (2007).
Google Scholar
Venäläinen, A. et al. Temporal variations and change in forest fire danger in Europe for 1960–2012. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 14, 1477–1490 (2014).
Google Scholar
Bowman, D. M. et al. Human exposure and sensitivity to globally extreme wildfire events. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 1, 1–6 (2017).
Google Scholar
Abatzoglou, J. T. et al. Global emergence of anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 326–336 (2019).
Google Scholar
Jain, P. et al. Observed increases in extreme fire weather driven by atmospheric humidity and temperature. Nat. Clim. Change 12, 63–70 (2022).
Google Scholar
Calheiros, T. et al. Recent evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of burnt areas and fire weather risk in the Iberian Peninsula. Agr. For. Meteorol. 287, 107923 (2020).
Google Scholar
Abatzoglou, J. T. et al. Increasing synchronous fire danger in forests of the western United States. Geophys. Res. Lett. 48, e2020GL091377 (2021).
Google Scholar
Kaiser, J. W. et al. Biomass burning emissions estimated with a global fire assimilation system based on observed fire radiative power. Biogeosciences 9, 527–554 (2012).
Google Scholar
Peuch, V. H. et al. The use of satellite data in the Copernicus atmosphere monitoring service. In IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (ed Moreno, J.) 1594–1596 (IEEE, 2018).
Carnicer, J. et al. Regime shifts of Mediterranean forest carbon uptake and reduced resilience driven by multidecadal ocean surface temperatures. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 2825–2840 (2019).
Google Scholar
Williams, A. P. et al. Observed impacts of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in California. Earth’s Fut. 7, 892–910 (2019).
Google Scholar
Rogers, B. M. et al. Focus on changing fire regimes: Interactions with climate, ecosystems, and society. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 030201 (2020).
Google Scholar
Duane, A. et al. Towards a comprehensive look at global drivers of novel extreme wildfire events. Clim. Change 165, 1–21 (2021).
Google Scholar
Ellis, T. M. et al. Global increase in wildfire risk due to climate-driven declines in fuel moisture. Glob. Change Biol. 28, 1544–1559 (2022).
Google Scholar
Grassi, G. et al. On the realistic contribution of European forests to reach climate objectives. Carbon Balance Manag. 14, 1–5 (2019).
Google Scholar
Pilli, R., Alkama, R., Cescatti, A., Kurz, W. A. & Grassi, G. The European forest Carbon budget under future climate conditions and current management practices. Biogeosci. Discuss. 1, 33 (2022).
Migliavacca, M. et al. Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 118, 1732–1747 (2013).
Google Scholar
Resco de Dios, V. et al. Climate change induced declines in fuel moisture may turn currently fire-free Pyrenean mountain forests into fire-prone ecosystems. Sci. Total Environ. 797, 149104 (2021).
Google Scholar
Pausas, J. G. & Keeley, J. E. Wildfires and global change. Front. Ecol. Environ. 19, 387–395 (2021).
Google Scholar
Peñuelas, J. et al. Shifting from a fertilization-dominated to a warming-dominated period. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 1, 1438–1445 (2017).
Google Scholar
Wang, S. et al. Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis. Science 370, 1295–1300 (2020).
Google Scholar
Carnicer, J. et al. Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 108, 1474–1478 (2011).
Google Scholar
Seidl, R., Schelhaas, M. J., Rammer, W. & Verkerk, P. J. Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 806–810 (2014).
Google Scholar
Forzieri, G. et al. Vulnerability of European forests to climate risks. Geophys. Res. Abstr. 21, 1 (2019).
Senf, C. & Seidl, R. Mapping the forest disturbance regimes of Europe. Nat. Sustain. 4, 63–70 (2021).
Google Scholar
Carnicer, J. et al. Forest resilience to global warming is strongly modulated by local-scale topographic, microclimatic and biotic conditions. J. Ecol. 109, 3322–3339 (2021).
Google Scholar
Sanginés de Cárcer, P. et al. Vapor–pressure deficit and extreme climatic variables limit tree growth. Glob. Change Biol. 24, 1108–1122 (2018).
Google Scholar
Yuan, W. et al. Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reduces global vegetation growth. Sci. Adv. 5, eaax1396 (2019).
Google Scholar
Carnicer, J., Barbeta, A., Sperlich, D., Coll, M. & Peñuelas, J. Contrasting trait syndromes in angiosperms and conifers are associated with different responses of tree growth to temperature on a large scale. Front. Plant Sci. 4, 409 (2013).
Google Scholar
Lee, H. et al. Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation. Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 104009 (2019).
Google Scholar
Bednar-Friedl, B. et al. Europe. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC-WMO.
Luyssaert, S. et al. Trade-offs in using European forests to meet climate objectives. Nature 562, 259–262 (2018).
Google Scholar
Nabuurs, G. J. et al. By 2050 the mitigation effects of EU forests could nearly double through climate smart forestry. Forests 8, 484 (2017).
Google Scholar
Vizzarri, M., Pilli, R., Korosuo, A., Frate, L. & Grassi, G. The role of forests in climate change mitigation: The EU context. In Climate-Smart Forestry in Mountain Regions (eds Tognetti, R. et al.) 507–520 (Springer, 2022).
Google Scholar
Tognetti, R., Smith, M. & Panzacchi, P. Climate-Smart Forestry in Mountain Regions 574 (Springer, 2022).
Google Scholar
Ali, E. et al. Mediterranean Region. In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC-WMO.
IPCC, 2021. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press) (in press).
Boer, M. M. et al. Changing weather extremes call for early warning of potential for catastrophic fire. Earth’s Fut. 5, 1196–1202 (2017).
Google Scholar
Drobyshev, I. et al. Trends and patterns in annually burned forest areas and fire weather across the European boreal zone in the 20th and early 21st centuries. Agric. For. Meteorol. 306, 108467 (2021).
Google Scholar
Chen, Y., Morton, D. C., Andela, N., Giglio, L. & Randerson, J. T. How much global burned area can be forecast on seasonal time scales using sea surface temperatures?. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 045001 (2016).
Google Scholar
McCarty, J. L., Smith, T. E. & Turetsky, M. R. Arctic fires re-emerging. Nat. Geosci. 13, 658–660 (2020).
Google Scholar
Witze, A. The Arctic is burning like never before—And that’s bad news for climate change. Nature 585, 336–338 (2020).
Google Scholar
Scholten, R. C., Jandt, R., Miller, E. A., Rogers, B. M. & Veraverbeke, S. Overwintering fires in boreal forests. Nature 593, 399–404 (2021).
Google Scholar
Smith, T., McCarty, J., Turetsky, M. & Parrington, M. Geospatial analysis of Arctic fires in the MODIS era: 2003–2020. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (2021).
Lehtonen, I., Venäläinen, A., Kämäräinen, M., Peltola, H. & Gregow, H. Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 16, 239–253 (2016).
Google Scholar
Fernandes, P. M., Pereira Pacheco, A., Almeida, R. & Claro, J. The role of fire-suppression force in limiting the spread of extremely large forest fires in Portugal. Eur. J. For. Res. 135, 253–262 (2016).
Google Scholar
Vitolo, C. et al. ERA5-based global meteorological wildfire danger maps. Sci. Data 7, 216 (2020).
Google Scholar
San-Miguel-Ayanz, M. et al. In Comprehensive Monitoring of Wildfires in Europe: The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) (ed. Tiefenbacher, J.) 87–108 (InTech, Croatia, 2012).
Harvey, D. A., Alexander, M. E. & Janz, B. A comparison of fire-weather severity in northern Alberta during the 1980 and 1981 fire seasons. For. Chron. 62, 507–513 (1986).
Google Scholar
Copernicus Climate Change Service. Fire Danger Indicators for Europe from 1970 to 2098 Derived from Climate Projections (2020). https://doi.org/10.24381/CDS.CA755DE7.
Flannigan, M. D. et al. Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation: Climate change implications. Clim. Change 134, 59–71 (2016).
Google Scholar
Fargeon, H. et al. Projections of fire danger under climate change over France: Where do the greatest uncertainties lie?. Clim. Change 160, 479–493 (2020).
Google Scholar
Rovithakis, A. et al. Future climate change impact on wildfire danger over the Mediterranean: The case of Greece. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 045022 (2022).
Google Scholar
Iturbide, M. et al. An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: Definition and aggregated datasets. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 12, 2959–2970 (2020).
Google Scholar
Source: Ecology - nature.com
