Macreadie, P. I. et al. The future of Blue Carbon science. Nat. Commun. 10, 3998 (2019).
Google Scholar
Herbert, E. R., Windham-Myers, L. & Kirwan, M. L. Sea-level rise enhances carbon accumulation in United States tidal wetlands. One Earth 4, 425–433 (2021).
Google Scholar
Rogers, K. et al. Wetland carbon storage controlled by millennial-scale variation in relative sea-level rise. Nature 567, 91–95 (2019).
Google Scholar
Murray, N. J. et al. The global distribution and trajectory of tidal flats. Nature 565, 222–225 (2019).
Google Scholar
Saintilan, N. et al. Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise. Science 368, 1118–1121 (2020).
Google Scholar
Waycott, M. et al. Accelerating loss of seagrasses across the globe threatens coastal ecosystems. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 12377–12381 (2009).
Google Scholar
Kirwan, M. L. & Gedan, K. B. Sea-level driven land conversion and the formation of ghost forests. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 450–457 (2019).
Google Scholar
Raabe, E. A. & Stumpf, R. P. Expansion of tidal marsh in response to sea-level rise: Gulf Coast of Florida, USA. Estuaries Coast. 39, 145–157 (2016).
Google Scholar
Ury, E. A., Yang, X., Wright, J. P. & Bernhardt, E. S. Rapid deforestation of a coastal landscape driven by sea-level rise and extreme events. Ecol. Appl. 31, e02339 (2021).
Google Scholar
Mariotti, G. Revisiting salt marsh resilience to sea level rise: are ponds responsible for permanent land loss? J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 121, 1391–1407 (2016).
Google Scholar
Schepers, L., Brennand, P., Kirwan, M. L., Guntenspergen, G. R. & Temmerman, S. Coastal marsh degradation into ponds induces irreversible elevation loss relative to sea level in a microtidal system. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2020GL089121 (2020).
Google Scholar
Schieder, N. W., Walters, D. C. & Kirwan, M. L. Massive upland to wetland conversion compensated for historical marsh loss in Chesapeake Bay, USA. Estuaries Coasts 41, 940–951 (2018).
Google Scholar
Chmura, G. L., Anisfeld, S. C., Cahoon, D. R. & Lynch, J. C. Global carbon sequestration in tidal, saline wetland soils. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 17, 1111 (2003).
Fourqurean, J. W. et al. Seagrass ecosystems as a globally significant carbon stock. Nat. Geosci. 5, 505–509 (2012).
Google Scholar
Mcleod, E. et al. A blueprint for blue carbon: toward an improved understanding of the role of vegetated coastal habitats in sequestering CO2. Front. Ecol. Environ. 9, 552–560 (2011).
Google Scholar
Smart, L. S. et al. Aboveground carbon loss associated with the spread of ghost forests as sea levels rise. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 104028 (2020).
Google Scholar
Smith, A. J. & Kirwan, M. L. Sea level-driven marsh migration results in rapid net loss of carbon. Geophys. Res. Lett. 48, e2021GL092420 (2021).
Google Scholar
Phang, V. X. H., Chou, L. M. & Friess, D. A. Ecosystem carbon stocks across a tropical intertidal habitat mosaic of mangrove forest, seagrass meadow, mudflat and sandbar. Earth Surf. Process. Landf. 40, 1387–1400 (2015).
Google Scholar
Saavedra-Hortua, D. A., Friess, D. A., Zimmer, M. & Gillis, L. G. Sources of particulate organic matter across mangrove forests and adjacent ecosystems in different geomorphic settings. Wetlands 40, 1047–1059 (2020).
Google Scholar
Windham-Myers, L., Crooks, S. & Troxler, T. G. A Blue Carbon Primer: The State of Coastal Wetland Carbon Science, Practice and Policy (CRC Press, 2018).
Donatelli, C., Kalra, T. S., Fagherazzi, S., Zhang, X. & Leonardi, N. Dynamics of marsh-derived sediments in lagoon-type estuaries. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 125, e2020JF005751 (2020).
Google Scholar
Hopkinson, C. S., Morris, J. T., Fagherazzi, S., Wollheim, W. M. & Raymond, P. A. Lateral marsh edge erosion as a source of sediments for vertical marsh accretion. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 123, 2444–2465 (2018).
Google Scholar
Mitchell, M. G. E., Bennett, E. M. & Gonzalez, A. Linking landscape connectivity and ecosystem service provision: current knowledge and research gaps. Ecosystems 16, 894–908 (2013).
Google Scholar
Pearson, R. M. et al. Disturbance type determines how connectivity shapes ecosystem resilience. Sci. Rep. 11, 1188 (2021).
Google Scholar
Grande, T. O., Aguiar, L. M. S. & Machado, R. B. Heating a biodiversity hotspot: connectivity is more important than remaining habitat. Landsc. Ecol. 35, 639–657 (2020).
Google Scholar
Olliver, E. A. & Edmonds, D. A. Hydrological connectivity controls magnitude and distribution of sediment deposition within the Deltaic Islands of Wax Lake Delta, LA, USA. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 126, e2021JF006136 (2021).
Google Scholar
Ward, N. D. et al. Representing the function and sensitivity of coastal interfaces in Earth system models. Nat. Commun. 11, 2458 (2020).
Google Scholar
Wohl, E. et al. Connectivity as an emergent property of geomorphic systems. Earth Surf. Process. Landf. 44, 4–26 (2019).
Google Scholar
Kirwan, M. L. & Mudd, S. M. Response of salt-marsh carbon accumulation to climate change. Nature 489, 550–553 (2012).
Google Scholar
Rietl, A. J., Megonigal, J. P., Herbert, E. R. & Kirwan, M. L. Vegetation type and decomposition priming mediate brackish marsh carbon accumulation under interacting facets of global change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 48, e2020GL092051 (2021).
Google Scholar
Kirwan, M. L., Walters, D. C., Reay, W. G. & Carr, J. A. Sea level driven marsh expansion in a coupled model of marsh erosion and migration. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 4366–4373 (2016).
Google Scholar
Mariotti, G. & Fagherazzi, S. A numerical model for the coupled long-term evolution of salt marshes and tidal flats. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 115, F01004 (2010).
Theuerkauf, E. J., Stephens, J. D., Ridge, J. T., Fodrie, F. J. & Rodriguez, A. B. Carbon export from fringing saltmarsh shoreline erosion overwhelms carbon storage across a critical width threshold. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 164, 367–378 (2015).
Google Scholar
Murray, A. B. Reducing model complexity for explanation and prediction. Geomorphology 90, 178–191 (2007).
Google Scholar
Murray, A. B. & Paola, C. A cellular model of braided rivers. Nature 371, 54–57 (1994).
Google Scholar
Mariotti, G. & Carr, J. Dual role of salt marsh retreat: long-term loss and short-term resilience. Water Resour. Res. 50, 2963–2974 (2014).
Google Scholar
Mudd, S. M., Howell, S. M. & Morris, J. T. Impact of dynamic feedbacks between sedimentation, sea-level rise, and biomass production on near-surface marsh stratigraphy and carbon accumulation. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 82, 377–389 (2009).
Google Scholar
Mudd, S. M., Fagherazzi, S., Morris, J. T. & Furbish, D. J. Flow, sedimentation, and biomass production on a vegetated salt marsh in South Carolina: toward a predictive model of marsh morphologic and ecologic evolution. Ecogeomorphology Tidal Marshes 59, 165–188 (2004).
Reeves, I. R. B. et al. Impacts of seagrass dynamics on the coupled long-term evolution of barrier-marsh-bay systems. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 125, e2019JG005416 (2020).
Google Scholar
Spivak, A. C., Sanderman, J., Bowen, J. L., Canuel, E. A. & Hopkinson, C. S. Global-change controls on soil-carbon accumulation and loss in coastal vegetated ecosystems. Nat. Geosci. 12, 685–692 (2019).
Google Scholar
de Broek, M. V. et al. Long-term organic carbon sequestration in tidal marsh sediments is dominated by old-aged allochthonous inputs in a macrotidal estuary. Glob. Change Biol. 24, 2498–2512 (2018).
Google Scholar
Noyce, G. L., Kirwan, M. L., Rich, R. L. & Megonigal, J. P. Asynchronous nitrogen supply and demand produce nonlinear plant allocation responses to warming and elevated CO2. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 21623–21628 (2019).
Google Scholar
Smith, A. J., Noyce, G. L., Megonigal, J. P., Guntenspergen, G. R. & Kirwan, M. L. Temperature optimum for marsh resilience and carbon accumulation revealed in a whole-ecosystem warming experiment. Glob. Change Biol. 28, 3236–3245 (2022).
Google Scholar
Guimond, J. & Tamborski, J. Salt marsh hydrogeology: a review. Water 13, 543 (2021).
Google Scholar
Xin, P. et al. Surface water and groundwater interactions in salt marshes and their impact on plant ecology and coastal biogeochemistry. Rev. Geophys. 60, e2021RG000740 (2022).
Google Scholar
Chen, Y. & Kirwan, M. L. Climate-driven decoupling of wetland and upland biomass trends on the mid-Atlantic coast. Nat. Geosci. 15, 913–918 (2022).
Google Scholar
Rapalee, G., Trumbore, S. E., Davidson, E. A., Harden, J. W. & Veldhuis, H. Soil Carbon stocks and their rates of accumulation and loss in a boreal forest landscape. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 12, 687–701 (1998).
Google Scholar
Stewart, C. E., Paustian, K., Conant, R. T., Plante, A. F. & Six, J. Soil carbon saturation: concept, evidence and evaluation. Biogeochemistry 86, 19–31 (2007).
Google Scholar
Zhou, T. et al. Age-dependent forest carbon sink: Estimation via inverse modeling. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 120, 2473–2492 (2015).
Google Scholar
Morris, J. T., Sundareshwar, P. V., Nietch, C. T., Kjerfve, B. & Cahoon, D. R. Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level. Ecology 83, 2869–2877 (2002).
Google Scholar
Kirwan, M. L., Temmerman, S., Skeehan, E. E., Guntenspergen, G. R. & Fagherazzi, S. Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 253–260 (2016).
Google Scholar
Brinson, M. M., Christian, R. R. & Blum, L. K. Multiple states in the sea-level induced transition from terrestrial forest to estuary. Estuaries 18, 648–659 (1995).
Google Scholar
Schieder, N. W. & Kirwan, M. L. Sea-level driven acceleration in coastal forest retreat. Geology 47, 1151–1155 (2019).
Google Scholar
Leonardi, N., Ganju, N. K. & Fagherazzi, S. A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 64–68 (2016).
Google Scholar
Feagin, R. A., Martinez, M. L., Mendoza-Gonzalez, G. & Costanza, R. Salt marsh zonal migration and ecosystem service change in response to global sea level rise: a case study from an urban region. Ecol. Soc. 15, 14 (2010).
Sapkota, Y. & White, J. R. Marsh edge erosion and associated carbon dynamics in coastal Louisiana: a proxy for future wetland-dominated coastlines world-wide. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 226, 106289 (2019).
Google Scholar
Smith, K. E. L., Terrano, J. F., Khan, N. S., Smith, C. G. & Pitchford, J. L. Lateral shoreline erosion and shore-proximal sediment deposition on a coastal marsh from seasonal, storm and decadal measurements. Geomorphology 389, 107829 (2021).
Google Scholar
Bouma, T. J. et al. Short-term mudflat dynamics drive long-term cyclic salt marsh dynamics. Limnol. Oceanogr. 61, 2261–2275 (2016).
Google Scholar
Gillis, L. G. et al. Potential for landscape-scale positive interactions among tropical marine ecosystems. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 503, 289–303 (2014).
Google Scholar
Schuerch, M., Dolch, T., Reise, K. & Vafeidis, A. T. Unravelling interactions between salt marsh evolution and sedimentary processes in the Wadden Sea (southeastern North Sea). Prog. Phys. Geogr. Earth Environ. 38, 691–715 (2014).
Google Scholar
Gonneea, M. E. et al. Salt marsh ecosystem restructuring enhances elevation resilience and carbon storage during accelerating relative sea-level rise. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 217, 56–68 (2019).
Google Scholar
McTigue, N. et al. Sea level rise explains changing carbon accumulation rates in a salt marsh over the past two millennia. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 124, 2945–2957 (2019).
Google Scholar
Wang, F., Lu, X., Sanders, C. J. & Tang, J. Tidal wetland resilience to sea level rise increases their carbon sequestration capacity in United States. Nat. Commun. 10, 5434 (2019).
Google Scholar
Wang, F. et al. Global blue carbon accumulation in tidal wetlands increases with climate change. Natl Sci. Rev. 8, nwaa296 (2021).
Google Scholar
Ganju, N. K., Defne, Z., Elsey-Quirk, T. & Moriarty, J. M. Role of tidal wetland stability in lateral fluxes of particulate organic matter and carbon. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 124, 1265–1277 (2019).
Google Scholar
Krauss, K. W. et al. The role of the upper tidal estuary in wetland blue carbon storage and flux. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 32, 817–839 (2018).
Google Scholar
Baustian, M. M., Stagg, C. L., Perry, C. L., Moss, L. C. & Carruthers, T. J. B. Long-term carbon sinks in marsh soils of coastal louisiana are at risk to wetland loss. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 126, e2020JG005832 (2021).
Google Scholar
DeLaune, R. D. & White, J. R. Will coastal wetlands continue to sequester carbon in response to an increase in global sea level?: a case study of the rapidly subsiding Mississippi river deltaic plain. Clim. Change 110, 297–314 (2012).
Google Scholar
Lovelock, C. E. & Duarte, C. M. Dimensions of Blue Carbon and emerging perspectives. Biol. Lett. 15, 20180781 (2019).
Google Scholar
Lovelock, C. E. & Reef, R. Variable impacts of climate change on Blue Carbon. One Earth 3, 195–211 (2020).
Google Scholar
Bernal, B. & Mitsch, W. J. Comparing carbon sequestration in temperate freshwater wetland communities. Glob. Change Biol. 18, 1636–1647 (2012).
Google Scholar
Mack, S. K., Lane, R. R., Deng, J., Morris, J. T. & Bauer, J. J. Wetland carbon models: applications for wetland carbon commercialization. Ecol. Model. 476, 110228 (2023).
Google Scholar
Young, I. R. & Verhagen, L. A. The growth of fetch limited waves in water of finite depth. Part 1. Total energy and peak frequency. Coast. Eng. 29, 47–78 (1996).
Google Scholar
Mariotti, G. & Fagherazzi, S. Critical width of tidal flats triggers marsh collapse in the absence of sea-level rise. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 5353–5356 (2013).
Google Scholar
Koppel, J., van de, Wal, D., van der, Bakker, J. P. & Herman, P. M. J. Self‐organization and vegetation collapse in salt marsh ecosystems. Am. Nat. 165, E1–E12 (2005).
Google Scholar
D’Alpaos, A., Lanzoni, S., Marani, M. & Rinaldo, A. Landscape evolution in tidal embayments: modeling the interplay of erosion, sedimentation, and vegetation dynamics. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 112, F01008 (2007).
Kirwan, M. L. et al. Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea level. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L23401 (2010).
Larsen, L. G. & Harvey, J. W. How vegetation and sediment transport feedbacks drive landscape change in the everglades and wetlands worldwide. Am. Nat. 176, E66–E79 (2010).
Google Scholar
Smith, J. A. M. The role of Phragmites australis in mediating inland salt marsh migration in a Mid-Atlantic Estuary. PLoS ONE 8, e65091 (2013).
Google Scholar
Mariotti, G., Elsey-Quirk, T., Bruno, G. & Valentine, K. Mud-associated organic matter and its direct and indirect role in marsh organic matter accumulation and vertical accretion. Limnol. Oceanogr. 65, 2627–2641 (2020).
Google Scholar
Ladd, C. J. T., Duggan-Edwards, M. F., Bouma, T. J., Pagès, J. F. & Skov, M. W. Sediment supply explains long-term and large-scale patterns in salt marsh lateral expansion and erosion. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 11178–11187 (2019).
Google Scholar
Törnqvist, T. E., Jankowski, K. L., Li, Y.-X. & González, J. L. Tipping points of Mississippi Delta marshes due to accelerated sea-level rise. Sci. Adv. 6, eaaz5512 (2020).
Google Scholar
Fagherazzi, S. et al. Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors. Rev. Geophys. 50, RG1002 (2012).
Source: Ecology - nature.com