Harnik, P. G. et al. Extinction in ancient and modern seas. Trends Ecol. Evol. 27, 608–617 (2012).
Finnegan, S. et al. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans. Science 348, 567–570 (2015).
Kiessling, W. & Simpson, C. On the potential for ocean acidification to be a general cause of ancient reef crises. Glob. Change Biol. 17, 56–67 (2011).
Knoll, A. H., Bambach, R. K., Payne, J. L., Pruss, S. & Fischer, W. W. Paleophysiology and end-Permian mass extinction. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 256, 295–313 (2007).
Reddin, C. J., Kocsis, Á. T. & Kiessling, W. Climate change and the latitudinal selectivity of ancient marine extinctions. Paleobiology 45, 70–84 (2019).
García Molinos, J. et al. Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 83–88 (2016).
Calosi, P., Putnam, H. M., Twitchett, R. J. & Vermandele, F. Marine metazoan modern mass extinction: improving predictions by integrating fossil, modern, and physiological data. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 11, 13–25 (2019).
Penn, J. L., Deutsch, C., Payne, J. L. & Sperling, E. A. Temperature-dependent hypoxia explains biogeography and severity of end-Permian marine mass extinction. Science 362, eaat1327 (2018).
Foster, G. L., Hull, P., Lunt, D. J. & Zachos, J. C. Placing our current ‘hyperthermal’ in the context of rapid climate change in our geological past. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 376, 20170086 (2018).
Vaquer-Sunyer, R. & Duarte, C. M. Temperature effects on oxygen thresholds for hypoxia in marine benthic organisms. Glob. Change Biol. 17, 1788–1797 (2011).
Poloczanska, E. S. et al. Global imprint of climate change on marine life. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 919–925 (2013).
Breitburg, D. et al. Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters. Science 359, eaam7240 (2018).
Cahill, A. E. et al. How does climate change cause extinction?. Proc. R. Soc. B 280, 20121890 (2013).
Kemp, D. B., Eichenseer, K. & Kiessling, W. Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record. Nat. Commun. 6, 8890 (2015).
Wittmann, A. C. & Pörtner, H. O. Sensitivities of extant animal taxa to ocean acidification. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 995–1001 (2013).
Storch, D., Menzel, L., Frickenhaus, S. & Pörtner, H. O. Climate sensitivity across marine domains of life: limits to evolutionary adaptation shape species interactions. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 3059–3067 (2014).
Harvey, B. P., Gwynn-Jones, D. & Moore, P. J. Meta-analysis reveals complex marine biological responses to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming. Ecol. Evol. 3, 1016–1030 (2013).
Kroeker, K. J. et al. Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming. Glob. Change Biol. 19, 1884–1896 (2013).
Przeslawski, R., Byrne, M. & Mellin, C. A review and meta-analysis of the effects of multiple abiotic stressors on marine embryos and larvae. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 2122–2140 (2015).
Darling, E. S. & Côté, I. M. Quantifying the evidence for ecological synergies. Ecol. Lett. 11, 1278–1286 (2008).
Pörtner, H.-O., Bock, C. & Mark, F. C. Oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance: bridging ecology and physiology. J. Exp. Biol. 220, 2685–2696 (2017).
Deutsch, C., Ferrel, A., Seibel, B., Pörtner, H.-O. & Huey, R. Climate change tightens a metabolic constraint on marine habitats. Science 348, 1132–1136 (2015).
Kroeker, K. J., Kordas, R. L. & Harley, C. D. G. Embracing interactions in ocean acidification research: confronting multiple stressor scenarios and context dependence. Biol. Lett. 13, 20160802 (2017).
Tewksbury, J. J., Huey, R. B. & Deutsch, C. A. Putting the heat on tropical animals. Science 320, 1296–1297 (2008).
Rohr, J. R. et al. The complex drivers of thermal acclimation and breadth in ectotherms. Ecol. Lett. 21, 1425–1439 (2018).
Saupe, E. E. et al. Macroevolutionary consequences of profound climate change on niche evolution in marine molluscs over the past three million years. Proc. R. Soc. B 281, 20141995 (2014).
Hopkins, M. J., Simpson, C. & Kiessling, W. Differential niche dynamics among major marine invertebrate clades. Ecol. Lett. 17, 314–323 (2014).
Peters, S. E. Environmental determinants of extinction selectivity in the fossil record. Nature 454, 626–629 (2008).
Schoene, B., Guex, J., Bartolini, A., Schaltegger, U. & Blackburn, T. J. Correlating the end-Triassic mass extinction and flood basalt volcanism at the 100 ka level. Geology 38, 387–390 (2010).
Jablonski, D. Mass extinctions and macroevolution. Paleobiology 31, 192–210 (2005).
Durack, P. J., Wijffels, S. E. & Matear, R. J. Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000. Science 336, 455–459 (2012).
Hendriks, I. E., Duarte, C. M. & Álvarez, M. Vulnerability of marine biodiversity to ocean acidification: a meta-analysis. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 86, 157–164 (2010).
Wernberg, T., Smale, D. A. & Thomsen, M. S. A decade of climate change experiments on marine organisms: procedures, patterns and problems. Glob. Change Biol. 18, 1491–1498 (2012).
Crain, C. M., Kroeker, K. & Halpern, B. S. Interactive and cumulative effects of multiple human stressors in marine systems. Ecol. Lett. 11, 1304–1315 (2008).
Tummers, B. DataThief III v.1.7 (2006); https://datathief.org
Pörtner, H. O. & Farrell, A. P. Physiology and climate change. Science 322, 690–692 (2008).
Woods, H. A., Harrison, J. F. & Merila, J. Interpreting rejections of the beneficial acclimation hypothesis: when is physiological plasticity adaptive? Evolution 56, 1863–1866 (2002).
Boag, T. H., Stockey, R. G., Elder, L. E., Hull, P. M. & Sperling, E. A. Oxygen, temperature and the deep-marine stenothermal cradle of Ediacaran evolution. Proc. R. Soc. B 285, 20181724 (2018).
Kaschner, K. et al. AquaMaps: predicted range maps for aquatic species v.08/2016 (2016); www.aquamaps.org
Valentine, J. W. Temporal bias in extinctions among taxonomic categories. J. Paleontol. 48, 549–552 (1974).
Bambach, R. K., Knoll, A. H. & Sepkoski, J. J. Anatomical and ecological constraints on Phanerozoic animal diversity in the marine realm. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 99, 6854–6859 (2002).
Hönisch, B. et al. The geological record of ocean acidification. Science 335, 1058–1063 (2012).
Harrison, F. Getting started with meta-analysis. Methods Ecol. Evol. 2, 1–10 (2011).
Gurevitch, J., Koricheva, J., Nakagawa, S. & Stewart, G. Meta-analysis and the science of research synthesis. Nature 555, 175–182 (2018).
Gurevitch, J., Morrison, J. A. & Hedges, L. V. The Interaction between competition and predation: a meta‐analysis of field experiments. Am. Nat. 155, 435–453 (2000).
Rosenberg, M., Rothstein, H. & Gurevitch, J. in Handbook of Meta-Analysis in Ecology and Evolution (eds. Koricheva, J. et al.) 61–71 (Princeton Univ. Press, 2013).
Viechtbauer, W. Conducting meta-analyses in R with the metafor package. J. Stat. Softw. 36, 1–48 (2010).
Duval, S. & Tweedie, R. Trim and fill: a simple funnel-plot-based method of testing and adjusting for publication bias in meta-analysis. Biometrics 56, 455–463 (2000).
Higgins, J. P. T. & Green, S. in Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions (eds. Higgins, J. P. T. & Green, S.) Ch. 9 (Wiley, 2005).
Senior, A. M. et al. Heterogeneity in ecological and evolutionary meta-analyses: its magnitude and implications. Ecology 97, 3293–3299 (2016).
Peck, L. S., Clark, M. S., Morley, S. A., Massey, A. & Rossetti, H. Animal temperature limits and ecological relevance: effects of size, activity and rates of change. Funct. Ecol. 23, 248–256 (2009).
Calcagno, V. glmulti: Model selection and multimodel inference made easy. R package version 1.0.7 (2013).
Kocsis, Á. T., Reddin, C. J., Alroy, J. & Kiessling, W. The R package divDyn for quantifying diversity dynamics using fossil sampling data. Methods Ecol. Evol. 45, 70–84 (2019).
Alroy, J. A more precise speciation and extinction rate estimator. Paleobiology 41, 633–639 (2015).
Clapham, M. E. & Payne, J. L. Acidification, anoxia, and extinction: a multiple logistic regression analysis of extinction selectivity during the Middle and Late Permian. Geology 39, 1059–1062 (2011).
McKinney, M. L. & Oyen, C. W. Causation and nonrandomness in biological and geological time series: temperature as a proximal control of extinction and diversity. Palaios 4, 3–15 (1989).
Emad, A. & Bailey, P. wCorr: Weighted correlations. R package version 1.9.1 (2017).
R Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2019).
Source: Ecology - nature.com
