Parmesan, C. Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming. Glob. Change Biol. 13, 1860–1872. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01404.x (2007).
Peñuelas, J. et al. Evidence of current impact of climate change on life: A walk from genes to the biosphere. Glob. Change Biol. 19, 2303–2338. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12143 (2013).
Thackeray, S. J. et al. Trophic level asynchrony in rates of phenological change for marine, freshwater and terrestrial environments. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 3304–3313. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02165.x (2010).
Dapporto, L. et al. Rise and fall of island butterfly diversity: Understanding genetic differentiation and extinction in a highly diverse archipelago. Divers. Distrib. 23, 1169–1181. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12610 (2017).
Hendry, A. P., Farrugia, T. J. & Kinnison, M. T. Human influences on rates of phenotypic change in wild animal populations. Mol. Ecol. 17, 20–29. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03428.x (2008).
Devictor, V. et al. Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 121–124. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1347 (2012).
Forister, M. L. & Shapiro, A. M. Climatic trends and advancing spring flight of butterflies in lowland California. Glob. Change Biol. 9, 1130–1135. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00643.x (2003).
Altermatt, F. Tell me what you eat and I’ll tell you when you fly: Diet can predict phenological changes in response to climate change. Ecol. Lett. 13, 1475–1484. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01534.x (2010).
Stefanescu, C., Penuelas, J. & Filella, I. Effects of climatic change on the phenology of butterflies in the northwest Mediterranean Basin. Glob. Change Biol. 9, 1494–1506. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00682.x (2003).
Roy, D. B. & Sparks, T. H. Phenology of British butterflies and climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 6, 407–416. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2000.00322.x (2000).
Diez, J. M. et al. Forecasting phenology: from species variability to community patterns. Ecol. Lett. 15, 545–553. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01765.x (2012).
Schweiger, O., Settele, J., Kudrna, O., Klotz, S. & Kühn, I. Climate change can cause spatial mismatch of trophically interacting species. Ecology 89, 3472–3479. https://doi.org/10.1890/07-1748.1 (2008).
Glazaczow, A., Orwin, D. & Bogdziewicz, M. Increased temperature delays the late-season phenology of multivoltine insect. Sci. Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep38022 (2016).
van der Kolk, H.-J., WallisDeVries, M. F. & van Vliet, A. J. H. Using a phenological network to assess weather influences on first appearance of butterflies in the Netherlands. Ecol. Indicators 69, 205–212, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.04.028 (2016).
Zografou, K. et al. Signals of climate change in butterfly communities in a mediterranean protected area. PLoS ONE 9, e87245. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0087245 (2014).
Visser, M. Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change. Proc. Biol. Sci. R. Soc. 275, 649–659, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2007.0997 (2008).
Kharouba, H. M., Paquette, S. R., Kerr, J. T. & Vellend, M. Predicting the sensitivity of butterfly phenology to temperature over the past century. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 504–514. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12429 (2014).
Roy, D. B. et al. Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 3313–3322. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12920 (2015).
Rapacciuolo, G. et al. Beyond a warming fingerprint: Individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 2841–2855. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12638 (2014).
Fischer, K. & Fiedler, K. Life-history plasticity in the butterfly Lycaena hippothoe: Local adaptations and trade-offs. Biol. J. Lin. Soc. 75, 173–185. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1095-8312.2002.00014.x (2002).
Zografou, K. Who flies first?—Habitat-specific phenological shifts of butterflies and orthopterans in the light of climate change: A case study from the south-east Mediterranean Lepidoptera and Orthoptera phenology change. Ecol. Entomol. 40, 562–574. https://doi.org/10.1111/een.12220 (2015).
Suggitt Andrew, J. et al. Habitat microclimates drive fine-scale variation in extreme temperatures. Oikos 120, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18270.x (2010).
Dell, D., Sparks, T. & Dennis, R. Climate change and the effect of increasing spring temperatures on emergence dates of the butterfly Apatura iris (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae). Eur. J. Entomol. 102, 161–167. https://doi.org/10.14411/eje.2005.026 (2005).
Zipf, L., Williams, E. H., Primack, R. B. & Stichter, S. Climate effects on late-season flight times of Massachusetts butterflies. Int. J. Biometeorol. 61, 1667–1673. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1347-8 (2017).
Diamond, S. E., Frame, A. M., Martin, R. A. & Buckley, L. B. Species’ traits predict phenological responses to climate change in butterflies. Ecology 92, 1005–1012. https://doi.org/10.1890/i0012-9658-92-5-1005 (2011).
Melero, Y., Stefanescu, C. & Pino, J. General declines in Mediterranean butterflies over the last two decades are modulated by species traits. Biol. Cons. 201, 336–342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.07.029 (2016).
Stefanescu, C., Peñuelas, J. & Filella, I. Butterflies highlight the conservation value of hay meadows highly threatened by land-use changes in a protected Mediterranean area. Biol. Cons. 126, 234–246. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2005.05.010 (2005).
Sparks, T. H., Huber, K. & Dennis, R. L. H. Complex phenological responses to climate warming trends? Lessons from history. Eur. J. Entomol. 103, 379–386 (2006).
Wong, M. K. L., Guénard, B. & Lewis, O. T. Trait-based ecology of terrestrial arthropods. Biol. Rev. 94, 999–1022. https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12488 (2019).
Gutiérrez, D. & Wilson, R. J. Intra- and interspecific variation in the responses of insect phenology to climate. J. Anim. Ecol. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13348 (2020).
Zografou, K. et al. Butterfly phenology in Mediterranean mountains using space-for-time substitution. Ecol. Evolut. 10, 928–939. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5951 (2020).
Steltzer, H. & Post, E. Seasons and life cycles. Science 324, 886–887. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1171542 (2009).
Hale, R., Morrongiello, J. R. & Swearer, S. E. Evolutionary traps and range shifts in a rapidly changing world. Biol. Let. 12, 20160003. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0003 (2016).
Ghalambor, C. K., McKay, J. K., Carroll, S. P. & Reznick, D. N. Adaptive versus non-adaptive phenotypic plasticity and the potential for contemporary adaptation in new environments. Funct. Ecol. 21, 394–407. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2435.2007.01283.x (2007).
Macgregor, C. J. et al. Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year. Nat. Commun. 10, 4455. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w (2019).
Pau, S. et al. Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science. Glob. Change Biol. 17, 3633–3643. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02515.x (2011).
Sherry, R. A. et al. Divergence of reproductive phenology under climate warming. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 104, 198. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0605642104 (2007).
Wilson, R. J. & Fox, R. Insect responses to global change offer signposts for biodiversity and conservation. Ecol. Entomol. https://doi.org/10.1111/een.12970 (2020).
Brooks, S. J. et al. The influence of life history traits on the phenological response of British butterflies to climate variability since the late-19th century. Ecography 40, 1152–1165. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02658 (2017).
Cayton, H. L., Haddad, N. M., Gross, K., Diamond, S. E. & Ries, L. Do growing degree days predict phenology across butterfly species?. Ecology 96, 1473–1479. https://doi.org/10.1890/15-0131.1 (2015).
Stocker, T. F. et al. Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 3–29 (2013).
Swengel, A. B. Effects of fire and hay management on abundance of prairie butterflies. Biol. Cons. 76, 73–85 (1996).
Zografou, K. et al. Severe decline and partial recovery of a rare butterfly on an active military training area. Biol. Cons. 216, 43–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2017.09.026 (2017).
Gillingham, P. K., Huntley, B., Kunin, W. E. & Thomas, C. D. The effect of spatial resolution on projected responses to climate warming. Divers. Distrib. 18, 990–1000. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2012.00933.x (2012).
Roy David, B. et al. Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate. Global Change Biol. 21, 3313–3322, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12920 (2015).
Lemoine, N. P. Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via range expansion of asclepias host plants. PLoS ONE 10, e0118614. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118614 (2015).
Slansky, F. Phagism relationships among butterflies. J. N. Y. Entomol. Soc. 84, 91–105 (1976).
Morin, X., Roy, J., Sonié, L. & Chuine, I. Changes in leaf phenology of three European oak species in response to experimental climate change. New Phytol. 186, 900–910. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03252.x (2010).
Chuine, I., Morin, X. & Bugmann, H. Warming. Photoperiods Tree Phenol. 329, 277–278. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.329.5989.277-e%JScience (2010).
Luedeling, E., Girvetz, E. H., Semenov, M. A. & Brown, P. H. Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees. PLoS ONE 6, e20155. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0020155 (2011).
Fu, Y. S. H. et al. Variation in leaf flushing date influences autumnal senescence and next year’s flushing date in two temperate tree species. Proc. Natl. Acad. USA 111, 7355–7360. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1321727111%JProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences (2014).
Renner, S. S. & Zohner, C. M. Climate change and phenological mismatch in trophic interactions among plants, insects, and vertebrates. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 49, 165–182. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110617-062535 (2018).
Barton, K. E., Edwards, K. F. & Koricheva, J. Shifts in woody plant defence syndromes during leaf development. Funct. Ecol. 33, 2095–2104. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.13435 (2019).
Cohen, J. M., Lajeunesse, M. J. & Rohr, J. R. A global synthesis of animal phenological responses to climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 224–228. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0067-3 (2018).
Altermatt, F. Climatic warming increases voltinism in European butterflies and moths. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 277, 1281–1287. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2009.1910 (2010).
Illán, J. G., Gutiérrez, D., Díez, S. B. & Wilson, R. J. Elevational trends in butterfly phenology: Implications for species responses to climate change. Ecol. Entomol. 37, 134–144. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2311.2012.01345.x (2012).
Nufio, C. R., McGuire, C. R., Bowers, M. D. & Guralnick, R. P. Grasshopper community response to climatic change: Variation along an elevational gradient. PLoS ONE 5, e12977. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0012977 (2010).
Van Dyck, H., Bonte, D., Puls, R., Gotthard, K. & Maes, D. The lost generation hypothesis: Could climate change drive ectotherms into a developmental trap?. Oikos 124, 54–61. https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.02066 (2015).
Scott, J. A. The Butterflies of North America: A Natural History and Field Guide. (Stanford University Press, 1992).
Division, E. Final Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan 17003–25002 (The Pennsylvania Department of Military and Veterans Affairs, Annville, 2002).
Shuey, J. et al. Landscape-scale response to local habitat restoration in the regal fritillary butterfly (Speyeria idalia) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae). J. Insect Cons. 20, 773–780. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-016-9908-4 (2016).
Metzler, E., Shuey, J., Ferge, L., Henderson, R. & Goldstein, P. Contributions to the understanding of tallgrass prairie-dependent butterflies and moths (Lepidoptera) and their biogeography in the United States. Ohio Biol. Surv. Bull. New Ser. 15, 1–143 (2005).
PNHP. PNHP Species Lists. Pennsylvania Natural Heritage Program. http://www.naturalheritage.state.pa.us/Species.aspx (2019).
Pollard, E. & Yates, T. J. Monitoring Butterflies for Ecology and Conservation (1993).
Nufio, C. R., McGuire, C. R., Bowers, M. D. & Guralnick, R. P. Grasshopper community response to climatic change: Variation along an elevational gradient. PLoS ONE https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0012977 (2010).
Glassberg, J. Butterflies through binoculars, the East. A field guide to the butterflies of Eastern North America, 242. (Oxford University Press, Inc., 1999).
Brock, J. P. & Kaufman, K. Field Guide to Butterflies of North America., 391 (Hillstar Editions L.C, 2003).
Brakefield, P. M. Geographical variability in, and temperature effects on, the phenology of Maniola jurtina and Pyronia tithonus (Lepidoptera, Satyrinae) in England and Wales. Ecol. Entomol. 12, 139–148. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2311.1987.tb00993.x (1987).
de Arce Crespo, J. I. & Gutiérrez, D. Altitudinal trends in the phenology of butterflies in a mountainous area in central Spain. Eur. J. Entomol. 108, 651–658 (2011).
Moussus, J.-P., Julliard, R. & Jiguet, F. Featuring 10 phenological estimators using simulated data. Methods Ecol. Evol. 1, 140–150. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00020.x (2010).
Penny, D. The comparative method in evolutionary biology. J. Classif. 9, 169–172. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02618482 (1992).
Earl, C., Belitz, M. et al. Spatial phylogenetics of butterflies in relation to environmental drivers and angiosperm diversity across North America. BioRxiv:2020.2007.2022.216119, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.22.216119 (2020).
PRISM. Climate Group, Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model. Oregon State University, http://prism.oregonstate.edu. Accessed 24 July 2018.
Daly, C. et al. Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. Int. J. Climatol. 28, 2031–2064. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1688 (2008).
Peñuelas, J. et al. Response of plant species richness and primary productivity in shrublands along a north-south gradient in Europe to seven years of experimental warming and drought: Reductions in primary productivity in the heat and drought year of 2003. Glob. Change Biol. 13, 2563–2581. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01464.x (2007).
McMaster, G. S. & Wilhelm, W. W. Growing degree-days: One equation, two interpretations. Agric. For. Meteorol. 87, 291–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(97)00027-0 (1997).
Walters, E. J., Morrell, C. H. & Auer, R. E. An investigation of the median-median method of linear regression. J. Stat. Educ. https://doi.org/10.1080/10691898.2006.11910582 (2006).
Theil, H. in Henri Theil’s Contributions to Economics and Econometrics: Econometric Theory and Methodology (eds Baldev Raj & Johan Koerts) 345–381 (Springer Netherlands, 1992).
Sen, P. K. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 63, 1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.2307/2285891 (1968).
Siegel, A. F. Robust regression using repeated medians. Biometrika 69, 242–244. https://doi.org/10.2307/2335877 (1982).
Schneider, G., Chicken, E. & Becvarik, R. NSM3: Functions and Datasets to Accompany Hollander, Wolfe, and Chicken – Nonparametric Statistical Methods, Third Edition. R Package Version 1.15. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=NSM3. (2020).
Patrick Bogaart, Loo, M. v. d. & Pannekoek, J. rtrim: Trends and Indices for Monitoring Data. R Package Version 2.1.1. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=rtrim. (2020).
Zografou, K. et al. Stable generalist species anchor a dynamic pollination network. Ecosphere 11, e03225. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3225 (2020).
Pinheiro J, Bates D, DebRoy S & D, S. nlme: Linear and Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models. R Package v. 3.1‐117. (www document). https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=nlme. (2015).
Felsenstein, J. Phylogenies and quantitative characters. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 19, 445–471. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.19.110188.002305 (1988).
Source: Ecology - nature.com
