Flato, G. & Boer, G. Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 195–198 (2001).
Burrows, M. T. et al. The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Science 334, 652–655 (2011).
Jonzén, N. et al. Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds. Science 312, 1959–1961 (2006).
Gordo, O. & Sanz, J. J. Phenology and climate change: a long-term study in a Mediterranean locality. Oecologia 146, 484–495 (2005).
Tøttrup, A. P. et al. Avian migrants adjust migration in response to environmental conditions en route. Biol. Lett. 4, 685–688 (2008).
Moussus, J. P., Clavel, J., Jiguet, F. & Julliard, R. Which are the phenologically flexible species? A case study with common passerine birds. Oikos 120, 991–998 (2011).
Maggini, I., Cardinale, M., Sundberg, J. H., Spina, F. & Fusani, L. Recent phenological shifts of migratory birds at a Mediterranean spring stopover site: Species wintering in the Sahel advance passage more than tropical winterers. PLoS ONE 15, e0239489 (2020).
Møller, A. P., Rubolini, D. & Lehikoinen, E. Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 105, 16195–16200 (2008).
Saino, N. et al. Climate warming, ecological mismatch at arrival and population decline in migratory birds. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 278, 835–842 (2011).
Jones, T. & Cresswell, W. The phenology mismatch hypothesis: Are declines of migrant birds linked to uneven global climate change?. J. Anim. Ecol. 79, 98–108 (2010).
Visser, M. E. & Both, C. Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: The need for a yardstick. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 272, 2561–2569 (2005).
Lehikoinen, E., Sparks, T. H. & Zalakevicius, M. Arrival and departure dates. Adv. Ecol. Res. 35, 1–31 (2004).
Usui, T., Butchart, S. H. & Phillimore, A. B. Temporal shifts and temperature sensitivity of avian spring migratory phenology: A phylogenetic meta-analysis. J. Anim. Ecol. 86, 250–261 (2017).
Cotton, P. A. Avian migration phenology and global climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 100, 12219–12222 (2003).
Tøttrup, A. P., Thorup, K. & Rahbek, C. Changes in timing of autumn migration in North European songbird populations. Ardea 94, 527 (2006).
Haest, B., Hüppop, O. & Bairlein, F. Weather at the winter and stopover areas determines spring migration onset, progress, and advancements in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 117, 17056–17062 (2020).
Tøttrup, A. P. et al. Drought in Africa caused delayed arrival of European songbirds. Science 338, 1307–1307 (2012).
Biebach, H. Sahara stopover in migratory flycatchers: Fat and food affect the time program. Experientia 41, 695–697 (1985).
Aharon-Rotman, Y., Bauer, S. & Klaassen, M. A chain is as strong as its weakest link: Assessing the consequences of habitat loss and degradation in a long-distance migratory shorebird. Emu-Aust. Ornithol. 116, 199–207 (2016).
Berthold, P. Control of Bird Migration (Springer Science & Business Media, Berlin, 1996).
Both, C. & Visser, M. E. Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant bird. Nature 411, 296–298 (2001).
Ramenofsky, M. Reconsidering the role of photoperiod in relation to effects of precipitation and food availability on spring departure of a migratory bird. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 279, 15–16 (2012).
Goymann, W., Lupi, S., Kaiya, H., Cardinale, M. & Fusani, L. Ghrelin affects stopover decisions and food intake in a long-distance migrant. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 114, 1946–1951 (2017).
Berthold, P. The endogenous control of bird migration: A survey of experimental evidence. Bird Study 31, 19–27 (1984).
Gwinner, E. Circannual clocks in avian reproduction and migration. Ibis 138, 47–63 (1996).
Jenni, L. & Kéry, M. Timing of autumn bird migration under climate change: Advances in long-distance migrants, delays in short–distance migrants. Proc. R Soc. Lond. Ser. B Biol. Sci. 270, 1467–1471 (2003).
Knudsen, E. et al. Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change. Biol. Rev. 86, 928–946 (2011).
Kovács, S., Fehérvári, P., Nagy, K., Harnos, A. & Csörgő, T. Changes in migration phenology and biometrical traits of Reed, Marsh and Sedge Warblers. Cent. Eur. J. Biol. 7, 115–125 (2012).
Rubolini, D., Møller, A. P., Rainio, K. & Lehikoinen, E. Intraspecific consistency and geographic variability in temporal trends of spring migration phenology among European bird species. Clim. Res. 35, 135–146 (2007).
Thorup, K., Tøttrup, A. P. & Rahbek, C. Patterns of phenological changes in migratory birds. Oecologia 151, 697–703 (2007).
Saino, N. et al. Ecological conditions during winter predict arrival date at the breeding quarters in a trans-Saharan migratory bird. Ecol. Lett. 7, 21–25 (2004).
Briedis, M., Krist, M., Král, M., Voigt, C. C. & Adamík, P. Linking events throughout the annual cycle in a migratory bird–non-breeding period buffers accumulation of carry-over effects. Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol. 72, 93 (2018).
Stanley, C. Q., MacPherson, M., Fraser, K. C., McKinnon, E. A. & Stutchbury, B. J. Repeat tracking of individual songbirds reveals consistent migration timing but flexibility in route. PLoS ONE 7, e40688 (2012).
Bussière, E. M., Underhill, L. G. & Altwegg, R. Patterns of bird migration phenology in South Africa suggest northern hemisphere climate as the most consistent driver of change. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 2179–2190 (2015).
Ahola, M. et al. Variation in climate warming along the migration route uncouples arrival and breeding dates. Glob. Change Biol. 10, 1610–1617 (2004).
Payevsky, V. A., Vysotsky, V. G. & Zelenova, N. P. Extinction of a Barred Warbler Sylvia nisoria population in Eastern Baltic: long-term monitoring, demography, and biometry. Avian Ecol. Behav 11, 89–105 (2003).
Newton, I. Population limitation in migrants. Ibis 146, 197–226 (2004).
Ockendon, N., Johnston, A. & Baillie, S. R. Rainfall on wintering grounds affects population change in many species of Afro-Palaearctic migrants. J. Ornithol. 155, 905–917 (2014).
Vickery, J. A. et al. The decline of Afro-Palaearctic migrants and an assessment of potential causes. Ibis 156, 1–22 (2014).
Walther, B. A. & Rahbek, C. Where do Palearctic migratory birds overwinter in Africa. Danks Orn Foren Tidsskr 96, 4–8 (2002).
Bairlein, F. The study of bird migrations—some future perspectives. Bird Study 50, 243–253 (2003).
Altwegg, R. et al. Novel methods reveal shifts in migration phenology of barn swallows in South Africa. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 279, 1485–1490 (2012).
Hüppop, O. & Ppop, K. H. North Atlantic oscillation and timing of spring migration in birds. Proc. R Soc. Lond. Ser. B Biol. Sci. 270, 233–240 (2003).
Haest, B., Hüppop, O. & Bairlein, F. Challenging a 15-year-old claim: The North atlantic oscillation index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds. Glob. Change Biol. 24, 1523–1537 (2018).
Bearhop, S. et al. Assortative mating as a mechanism for rapid evolution of a migratory divide. Science 310, 502–504 (2005).
MacMynowski, D. P. & Root, T. L. Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: Sexes, migratory distance, and arrival distributions. Int. J. Biometeorol. 51, 361–373 (2007).
Milá, B., Wayne, R. K. & Smith, T. B. Ecomorphology of migratory and sedentary populations of the yellow-rumped warbler (Dendroica coronata). Condor 110, 335–344 (2008).
Förschler, M. I. & Bairlein, F. Morphological shifts of the external flight apparatus across the range of a passerine (Northern Wheatear) with diverging migratory behaviour. PLoS ONE 6, e18732 (2011).
Fiedler, W. Ecomorphology of the external flight apparatus of blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) with different migration behavior. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 1046, 253 (2005).
Tarka, M. et al. A strong quantitative trait locus for wing length on chromosome 2 in a wild population of great reed warblers. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 277, 2361–2369 (2010).
Nowakowski, J. K., Szulc, J. & Remisiewicz, M. The further the flight, the longer the wing: Relationship between wing length and migratory distance in Old World reed and bush warblers (Acrocephalidae and Locustellidae). Ornis Fennica 91, 2 (2014).
Toews, D. P., Heavyside, J. & Irwin, D. E. Linking the wintering and breeding grounds of warblers along the Pacific Flyway. Ecol. Evol. 7, 6649–6658 (2017).
Pérez-Tris, J., Carbonell, R. & Tellería, J. L. A method for differentiating between sedentary and migratory Blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla in wintering areas of southern Iberia. Bird Study 46, 299–304 (1999).
Kovács, S., Csörgő, T., Harnos, A., Fehérvári, P. & Nagy, K. Change in migration phenology and biometrics of two conspecific Sylvia species in Hungary. J. Ornithol. 152, 365–373 (2011).
Lank, D. B. et al. Long term continental changes in wing length, but not bill length, of a long distance migratory shorebird. Ecol. Evol. 7, 3243–3256 (2017).
Yom-Tov, Y., Yom-Tov, S., Wright, J., Thorne, C. & Du Feu, R. Recent changes in body weight and wing length among some British passerine birds. Oikos 112, 91–101 (2006).
Szekely, T., Lislevand, T. & Figuerola, J. Sexual size dimorphism in birds. Sex, size and gender roles: evolutionary studies of sexual size dimorphism, 27–37 (2007).
Spina, F., Massi, A. & Montemaggiori, A. Back from Africa: Who’s running ahead? Aspects of differential migration of sex and age classes in Palearctic-African spring migrants. Ostrich 65, 137–150 (1994).
Izhaki, I. & Maitav, A. Blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla stopping over at the desert edge; inter-and intra sexual differences in spring and autumn migration. Ibis 140, 234–243 (1998).
Tøttrup, A. P. & Thorup, K. Sex-differentiated migration patterns, protandry and phenology in North European songbird populations. J. Ornithol. 149, 161–167 (2008).
Shneor, O., Perlman, G., Balaban, A. & Yom-Tov, Y. Origin of passerine migratory waves: Evidence from the blackcap at a stopover site. Israel J. Ecol. Evol. 56, 135–151 (2010).
Porkert, J. et al. Variation and long-term trends in the timing of breeding of different Eurasian populations of Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus. J. Ornithol. 155, 1045–1057 (2014).
BirdLife International and Handbook of the Birds of the World., 2019.
Houborg, R., Soegaard, H. & Boegh, E. Combining vegetation index and model inversion methods for the extraction of key vegetation biophysical parameters using Terra and Aqua MODIS reflectance data. Remote Sens. Environ. 106, 39–58 (2007).
Papeş, M., Peterson, A. T. & Powell, G. V. Vegetation dynamics and avian seasonal migration: Clues from remotely sensed vegetation indices and ecological niche modelling. J. Biogeogr. 39, 652–664 (2012).
Huete, A. et al. Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS vegetation indices. Remote Sens. Environ. 83, 195–213 (2002).
Gersten, A. & Hahn, S. Timing of migration in Common Redstarts (Phoenicurus phoenicurus) in relation to the vegetation phenology at residence sites. J. Ornithol. 157, 1029–1036 (2016).
Adole, T., Dash, J. & Atkinson, P. M. Characterising the land surface phenology of Africa using 500 m MODIS EVI. Appl. Geogr. 90, 187–199 (2018).
Gorelick, N. et al. Google earth engine: Planetary-scale geospatial analysis for everyone. Remote Sens. Environ. 202, 18–27 (2017).
Kiat, Y. & Sapir, N. Life-history trade-offs result in evolutionary optimization of feather quality. Biol. J. Lin. Soc. 125, 613–624 (2018).
Miles, W. T. et al. Quantifying full phenological event distributions reveals simultaneous advances, temporal stability and delays in spring and autumn migration timing in long distance migratory birds. Glob. Change Biol. 23, 1400–1414 (2017).
Geraci, M. & Bottai, M. Linear quantile mixed models. Stat. Comput. 24, 461–479 (2014).
Geraci, M. Linear quantile mixed models: The lqmm package for Laplace quantile regression. J. Stat. Softw. 57, 1–29 (2014).
Koenker, R. & Bassett, G. J. Regression quantiles. Econometrica 2, 33–50 (1978).
Kokko, H., Gunnarsson, T. G., Morrell, L. J. & Gill, J. A. Why do female migratory birds arrive later than males?. J. Anim. Ecol. 75, 1293–1303 (2006).
Yosef, R. & Meissner, W. Seasonal age differences in weight and biometrics of migratory Dunlins (Calidris alpina) at Eilat Israel. Ostrich-J. Afr. Ornithol. 77, 67–72 (2006).
Smith, R. J. & Moore, F. R. Arrival timing and seasonal reproductive performance in a long-distance migratory landbird. Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol. 57, 231–239 (2005).
R: A language and environment for statistical computing. ( Vienna, Austria. URL https://www.R-project.org/, 2019).
Pinheiro, J., Bates, D., DebRoy, S., Sarkar, D. & R-Core-Team. nlme: Linear and Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models. R package version 3.1–139 URL: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=nlme (2020).
Lenth, R. V. Least-square means: The R package lsmeans. J. Stat. Softw. 69, 1–33. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v069.i01 (2016).
Zuur, A., Ieno, E. N., Walker, N., Saveliev, A. A. & Smith, G. M. Mixed Effects Models and Extensions in Ecology with R (Springer Science & Business Media, Berlin, 2009).
Hahn, S. et al. Longer wings for faster springs: Wing length relates to spring phenology in a long distance migrant across its range. Ecol. Evol. 6, 68–77 (2016).
Berthold, P., Helbig, A. J., Mohr, G. & Querner, U. Rapid microevolution of migratory behaviour in a wild bird species. Nature 360, 668 (1992).
Hedlund, J. S., Jakobsson, S., Kullberg, C. & Fransson, T. Long-term phenological shifts and intra-specific differences in migratory change in the willow warbler Phylloscopus trochilus. J. Avian Biol. 46, 97–106 (2015).
Tryjanowski, P., Kuźniak, S. & Sparks, T. What affects the magnitude of change in first arrival dates of migrant birds?. J. Ornithol. 146, 200–205 (2005).
Newson, S. E. et al. Long-term changes in the migration phenology of UK breeding birds detected by large-scale citizen science recording schemes. Ibis 158, 481–495 (2016).
Zalakevicius, M., Bartkeviciene, G., Raudonikis, L. & Janulaitis, J. Spring arrival response to climate change in birds: a case study from eastern Europe. J. Ornithol. 147, 326–343 (2006).
Spottiswoode, C. N., Tøttrup, A. P. & Coppack, T. Sexual selection predicts advancement of avian spring migration in response to climate change. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 273, 3023–3029 (2006).
Yosef, R. & Wineman, A. Differential stopover of blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla) by sex and age at Eilat Israel. J. Arid Environ. 74, 360–367 (2010).
Kristensen, M. W., Tøttrup, A. P. & Thorup, K. Migration of the Common Redstart (Phoenicurus phoenicurus): A Eurasian songbird wintering in highly seasonal conditions in the West African Sahel. Auk 130, 258–264 (2013).
Moreau, R. E. Palaearctic-African Bird Migration Systems (Academic Press, London, 1972).
Tryjanowski, P., Kuźniak, S. & Sparks, T. Earlier arrival of some farmland migrants in western Poland. Ibis 144, 62–68 (2002).
Ożarowska, A., Zaniewicz, G. & Meissner, W. in Annales Zoologici Fennici. 45–54 (BioOne).
Wisz, M. S., Walther, B. & Rahbek, C. Using potential distributions to explore determinants of Western Palaearctic migratory songbird species richness in sub-Saharan Africa. J. Biogeogr. 34, 828–841 (2007).
Yosef, R. & Markovets, M. Spring bird migration phenology in Eilat Israel. ZooKeys 31, 193 (2009).
Walther, G.-R. et al. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416, 389–395 (2002).
Wolff, C. et al. Reduced interannual rainfall variability in East Africa during the last ice age. Science 333, 743–747 (2011).
Source: Ecology - nature.com