Philippa Kaur

During recent decades, pathogens that originated in bats have become an increasing public health concern. A major challenge is to identify how those pathogens spill over into human populations to generate a pandemic threat1. Many correlational studies associate spillover with changes in land use or other anthropogenic stressors2,3, although the mechanisms underlying the observed correlations have not been identified4. One limitation is the lack of spatially and temporally explicit data on multiple spillovers, and on the connections among spillovers, reservoir host ecology and behavior, and viral dynamics. We present 25 years of data on land-use change, bat behavior, and spillover of Hendra virus from Pteropodid bats to horses in subtropical Australia. These data show that bats are responding to environmental change by persistently adopting behaviors that were previously transient responses to nutritional stress. Interactions between land-use change and climate now lead to persistent bat residency in agricultural areas, where periodic food shortages drive clusters of spillovers. Pulses of winter flowering of trees in remnant forests appeared to prevent spillover. We developed integrative Bayesian network models based on these phenomena that accurately predicted the presence or absence of clusters of spillovers in each of 25 years. Our long-term study identifies the mechanistic connections among habitat loss, climate, and increased spillover risk. It provides a framework for examining causes of bat virus spillover and for developing ecological countermeasures to prevent pandemics. More

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We investigated whether ricefield mosquito larval control and/or rice cultivation practices are associated with malaria vector densities through a systematic review and meta-analysis. Forty-seven experimental studies were eligible for inclusion in the qualitative analysis and thirty-three studies were eligible for the meta-analysis. It was demonstrated that the use of fish, chemical and biological larvicides in rice fields were effective in controlling larval malaria vector densities at all developmental stages. Intermittent irrigation, however, could only significantly reduce late-stage larvae. Based on a limited number of studies, meta-analyses on other forms of larval control such as monomolecular surface films (MSFs), neem, copepods and Azolla failed to demonstrate any consistent reduction in anopheline numbers. Similarly, rice cultivation practices such as plant variety and density, type of levelling and pesticide application were not generally associated with reduced malaria vectors. Nonetheless, in one study, minimal tillage was observed to reduce average numbers of larvae throughout a cropping season. In another study, herbicide application increased larval abundance over a 4-week period, as did one-time drainage in a third study.
Despite their different modes of action, the use of chemical and bacterial larvicides and MSFs were all relatively effective measures of larval control in rice fields, varying between a 57% to 76% reduction in vector abundance compared to no larviciding. Their effects were highest (often reaching 100% reduction) only shortly following application but did not persist for longer than two weeks. These larvicides mostly had short residual half-lives because they were applied to paddy water which was naturally not completely stagnant: there was a small but constant process of water loss (through drainage, evapotranspiration and percolation) and replacement through irrigation. Hence, even with a residual formulation, weekly re-application would be needed for sustained control47,40,41,50. This would be very labour- and cost-intensive to scale-up, to ensure that larvicides are evenly distributed across vast areas (even at plot/sub-plot level) throughout at least one 5-month long rice-growing season per year42,51. Aerial application (including unmanned aerial vehicles), although widely used in the US and Europe, is unlikely to be a feasible delivery system for smallholders in SSA, even in large irrigation schemes26,27,48,49. Furthermore, if synthetic organic chemicals were to be considered for riceland malaria vector control, their management in the current landscape of insecticide resistance across Africa must be considered.Biological control using fish was found to be, in general, slightly more effective than (chemical, bacterial and MSF) larviciding. The degree of effectiveness was dependent on the fish species and their feeding preferences: surface-feeding, larvivorous species provided better anopheline control than bottom-feeding selective feeders4,43. Selecting the most suitable fish for local rice fields is not straightforward; many criteria need to be considered4,52,53. Generally, fish were well-received by rice farmers, perceived to contribute to increased yield by reducing weeds and pests and providing fertiliser through excrement43,44. This was reportedly also observed in Guangxi, China, where a certain proportion of the field had to be deepened into a side-trench where the fish could take shelter when the fields were drained. Even with this reduction in rice production area, carp rearing still increased yields by 10% and farmer’s income per hectare by 70%53. Unfortunately, none of the eligible studies in this review had included yield or water use as an outcome. Future entomological studies need to measure these critical agronomic variables so that studies of vector control in rice can be understood by, and transferred to, agronomists. In SSA, irrigated rice-fish farming can be scaled up provided that an inventory of fish species suitable for specific locations is available and that water is consistently available in fields (an important limiting factor in African irrigation schemes)54. Lessons can be learnt from successful large-scale rice-fish systems in Asia, where they have served as win–win solutions for sustainable food production and malaria control16,55.Overall, there was only limited evidence that intermittent irrigation is effective at reducing late-instar anopheline larvae in rice fields. This finding contrasts with prior reviews, which found mixed results (regardless of larval stage) but emphasised that success was site-specific4,17,56. This contrast is presumably due to the inclusion criteria of our systematic review. These reviews excluded studies in various geographical settings and some older studies that reported successful anopheline control with intermittent irrigation but lacked either a contemporaneous control arm, adequate replication or adequate differentiation between culicines and anophelines16,57,50,51,52,61. It seems, from our review, that intermittent irrigation does not prevent the recruitment of early instars (and in one case, may have encouraged oviposition31) but tends to prevent their development into late-stage immatures. This important conclusion is, however, based only on four studies; more evidence is urgently needed where future trials should consider the basic principles of modern trials with adequate replication, controls and differentiation between larval instars and species.Generally, it is observed that drainage, passive or active, did not reliably reduce overall numbers of mosquito immatures. In India and Kenya, closer inspection revealed that soils were not drying sufficiently, so any stranded larvae were not killed31,46. Highlighted by van der Hoek et al.29 and Keiser et al.17, water management in rice fields is very dependent on the physical characteristics of the soil and the climate and is most suited to places that not only favour rapid drying, but also have a good control of water supply17,56. Moreover, repeated drainage, although directed against mosquitoes, can also kill their aquatic predators62. Since mosquitoes can re-establish themselves in a newly flooded rice field more quickly than their predators, intermittent irrigation with more than a week between successive drying periods can permit repeated cycles of mosquito breeding without any predation pressure. Its efficacy against malaria vectors is therefore highly reliant on the timing of the wetting and drying periods. Further site-specific research on timing, especially with regards to predator–prey interactions within the rice agroecosystem, is required to find the perfect balance.Another limitation in intermittent irrigation is that it cannot be applied during the first two to three weeks following transplanting, because rice plants must remain flooded to recover from transplanting shock. Unfortunately, this time coincides with peak vector breeding. Thus, other methods of larval control would be required to fill this gap. To agronomists, intermittent irrigation provides benefits to farmers, as it does not penalise yield but significantly reduces water consumption. Nonetheless, farmer compliance seems to be variable, especially in areas where water availability is inconsistent and intermittent irrigation would potentially require more labour31,32,39. Importantly, rice farmers doubted their ability to coordinate water distribution evenly amongst themselves, suggesting that there may be sharing issues, as in the “tragedy of the commons”63. Instead, they said that they preferred to have an agreed authority to regulate water46.No general conclusions could be made on the effect on malaria vectors of other rice cultivation practices (apart from water management) because only one study was eligible for each practice. Nevertheless, these experiments on pesticide application, tillage and weed control, as well as another study on plant spacing (not eligible since glass rods were used to simulate rice plants), do illustrate that small changes in agronomic inputs and conditions can have considerable effects on mosquito densities, not just rice yield36,38,64. Moreover, in partially- or shallowly-flooded plots, the larvae are often concentrated in depressions (usually footprints), suggesting that rice operations which leave or remove footprints (e.g. hand-weeding, drum seeders, levelling) will influence vector breeding4.Our study has some important limitations. First, in most trials, the units of intervention were replicate plots of rice, and success was measured as a reduction in larval densities within treated plots. This design focuses on the identification of effective and easy-to-implement ways of growing rice without growing mosquitoes, on the assumption that higher vector densities are harmful. However, from a public health perspective, the need for epidemiological outcomes is often, and reasonably, stressed22,65. Nonetheless, from a farmers’ perspective, it is also important to consider whether the vectors emerging from their rice fields significantly contribute to the local burden of malaria and to determine how this contribution can be minimised. There is evidence that riceland vectors do increase malaria transmission, since human biting rates are much higher in communities living next to rice schemes than their non-rice counterparts66 and that additional riceland vectors may intensify transmission and malaria prevalence in rice communities15. Hence, when investigating how rice-attributed malaria risk can be minimised, mosquito abundance as measured in the experimental rice trials is a useful indicator of potential impact on epidemiological outcomes.Second, larval density was not always separated into larval developmental stages. This can be misleading because some interventions work by reducing larval survival (but not by preventing oviposition) and development to late instars and pupae. Therefore, an intervention could completely eliminate late-stage larvae and pupae but have little effect on the total number of immatures. This was illustrated in our meta-analyses of intermittent irrigation in Table 3 and Supplementary Table 5, and could have been the case for some studies that failed to demonstrate consistent reductions in overall anopheline numbers but did not differentiate between larval instars34,45,67,60,69. We infer that when monitoring mosquito immatures in rice trials, it is important to distinguish between larval instars and pupae. Pupae should always be counted separately since its abundance is the most direct indicator of adult productivity70.Third, experimental trials rarely reported the timing of intervention application or accounted for different rice-growing phases, or “days after transplantation”, in the outcome. Both aspects are important to consider since an intervention may be suited to control larvae during certain growth phases but not others. This is illustrated by Djegbe et al.38, where, compared to deep tillage, minimal tillage could significantly reduce larvae during the early stages of rice cultivation but not during tillering and maturation38. In contrast, other interventions, such as Azolla and predatory copepods, took time to grow and accumulate, and were more effective during the later stages of a rice season45,67,71. This differentiation is important because it can identify components that could potentially form a complementary set of interventions against riceland malaria vectors, each component being effective at different parts of the season. Since rice fields, and hence the dynamics of riceland mosquito populations, vary from place to place, this set of interventions must also be robust. Special attention must be paid to the early stages of rice cultivation, particularly the first few weeks after transplanting (or sowing), since, with many vector species, a large proportion of adult mosquitoes are produced during this time.Fourth, the analysis of entomological counts is often inadequate. Many studies failed to provide the standard deviation (or any other measure of error) for larval counts and could not be included in the quantitative analysis. Often, due to the extreme (and not unexpected) variability of larval numbers, sample sizes were insufficient to calculate statistically significant differences between treatments. Fifth, a high risk of bias was found across both CTS and CITS studies, including high heterogeneity and some publication bias. Study quality was, in general, a shortcoming and limited the number of eligible studies for certain interventions, including intermittent irrigation. Moreover, there are conspicuous a priori reasons for bias in such experimental trials: trial locations are frequently chosen to maximise the probability of success.Finally, few studies were conducted in African countries, where the relationship between rice and malaria is most important because of the efficiency, and the “rice-philic” nature, of the vector An. gambiae s.l.15. In particular, there was a lack of studies on the effectiveness and scalability of biological control and rice cultivation practices. There is also very little information (particularly social science studies) on the views and perspectives of African rice farmers on mosquitoes in rice and interventions to control them72,73.In the future, as malaria declines (particularly across SSA), the contribution of rice production to increased malaria transmission is likely to become more conspicuous15. Unless this problem is addressed, rice growing will probably become an obstacle to malaria elimination. Current default methods of rice production provide near-perfect conditions for the larvae of African malaria vectors. Therefore, we need to develop modified rice-growing methods that are unfavourable to mosquitoes but still favourable for the rice. Although larviciding and biological control may be appropriate, their unsustainable costs remain the biggest barrier to uptake amongst smallholder farmers. Future investigations into riceland vector control should pay more attention to interventions that may be useful to farmers.Supported by medical entomologists, agronomists should lead the research task of identifying cultivation methods that achieve high rice productivity whilst suppressing vector productivity. Rice fields are a major global source of greenhouse gases, and agronomists have responded by successfully developing novel cultivation methods that minimise these emissions while maintaining yield. We need the same kind of response from agronomists, to achieve malaria control co-benefits within rice cultivation. At present, only a few aspects of rice cultivation have been investigated for their effects on mosquitoes, and the potential of many other practices for reducing anopheline numbers are awaiting study. Due to the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of rice agroecosystems, it is likely that no single control method can reduce mosquito numbers throughout an entire cropping season and in all soil types and irrigation methods. Thus, effective overall control is likely to come from a combination of local, site-specific set of complementary methods, each of which is active and effective during a different phase of the rice-growing season. More

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We aimed to understand the impact of changing pCO2 (400 vs. 800 ppm, representing current and projected year 2100 concentrations) on Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus and its effects on their interactions with the co-cultured heterotrophic “helper” bacterium Alteromonas sp. EZ55. Consistent with our previous research [7], EZ55 was more strongly affected by year 2100 pCO2 than any of the photoautotrophs in our study despite the primary dependence of the latter organisms’ metabolism on CO2. Strikingly, elevated pCO2 tended to reduce or eliminate the effect of co-culture on EZ55, with far fewer genes being significantly differentially transcribed relative to axenic EZ55 at the same pCO2. Thus, pCO2 strongly impacted the metabolic conversation between cyanobacteria and EZ55. Our detailed analysis of differentially regulated metabolic pathways suggested three mutually reinforcing mechanisms underlying this dynamic interaction: (i) pCO2 impacts on the release of ‘leaky’ cyanobacteria-derived metabolites, (ii) alteration of the dynamics of competition over inorganic nutrients between the co-cultured organisms, and (iii) modulation of bacterial and phytoplankton stress states. We explore each of these mechanisms in further detail below.Carbon cycling of “leaky” metabolites in co-cultureThe media we used for coculturing phytoplankton and bacteria contained no exogenous carbon sources; therefore, EZ55 was dependent on cyanobacterial exudates to grow, and it is likely that much of its changed transcription reflected changing availability of extracellular metabolites in the medium. The significant upregulation of carbon catabolism and transport genes as well as chemotaxis genes in co-cultures relative to axenic EZ55 supports the view that bacterial remineralization of cyanobacteria-secreted organic compounds is a driving force in these simple ecosystems. Additionally, changes in transcription of carbohydrate catabolism and transport genes provide clues as to which metabolites were being secreted under different experimental conditions (Fig. 5).Fig. 5: Proposed reconstruction of Alteromonas EZ55 ecophysiology.Reconstructions are shown for four different community contexts (axenic culture, or co-culture with Prochlorococcus MIT9312, Synechococcus WH8102, or Synechococcus CC9311) at 400 or 800 ppm pCO2, reflecting possible changes in the availability of C compounds, growth limiting factors, and stress conditions consistent with differential gene transcription observations. EZ55 image was obtained by cryoelectron microscopy from the sessions reported in Hennon et al. [7]. Background colors for each partner correspond to the bar colors in Fig. 3.Full size imageLike all oxygenic phototrophs, the cyanobacteria studied here fix carbon using the enzyme rubisco, which also catalyzes the undesirable photorespiration reaction leading to the production of 2PG instead of photosynthate. Phytoplankton in the field and in culture have been observed to excrete low molecular weight carboxylic acids including glycolate [39,40,41]. Photorespiratory glycolate is one of the most abundant sources of carbon in the oceans [38] and a preferred growth substrate for some marine heterotrophic bacteria [42]. Moreover the bacterial glcD gene for converting glycolate to glyoxylate is ubiquitously transcribed in the ocean [41, 43]. Although EZ55 lacks a specific transporter for glycolate, it can be taken up by the cell using the same transporters used for acetate and lactate uptake [44, 45], both of which were upregulated in co-culture conditions at 400 ppm (Fig. 3). Our data also showed differential regulation of enzymes involved in glycolate catabolism pathways, with at least one pathway upregulated in co-culture with each cyanobacterial strain (Fig. 3). We further demonstrated that EZ55 cultures were capable of growth on glycolate as a sole source of carbon, possibly using a novel GlcDF fusion protein (Fig. S11) and/or a plant-like LOX/GOX enzyme (Fig. 4). Thus, photorespiratory byproducts are likely a source of carbon for EZ55 in these cultures, particularly in the presence of MIT9312, which has no detectable enzymes for reclaiming 2PG on its own.There was also evidence that EZ55 utilized amino acids, organic acids, and fatty acids produced by phytoplankton under certain conditions in these cultures (Fig. S9). Lactate, acetate, and propanoate transporters and catabolism pathways were upregulated in co-culture with all cyanobacteria, as was pyruvate dehydrogenase with MIT9312, but only at 400 ppm. Both valine and glycine catabolism were also upregulated at 400 ppm in co-culture with the two Synechococcus strains, and fatty acid catabolism was upregulated in co-culture with MIT9312 and CC9311 at 400 ppm pCO2. Most of these substances have been directly or indirectly observed in cyanobacterial cultures in previous studies. For example, glycolate, lactate, acetate, and pyruvate have been directly measured in Prochlorococcus spent media [39], and co-culture with Prochlorococcus can fulfill the SAR11 growth requirement for glycine and pyruvate [46]. Fatty acid catabolism genes may have targeted membrane vesicles which are abundantly released by Prochlorococcus and other marine bacteria and may be a significant source of carbon for heterotrophs in the ocean [47, 48]; if so, future studies should investigate if WH8102 produces fewer vesicles than the other two cyanobacteria, explaining the differential transcription of beta-oxidation genes observed here.Valine, fatty acid, and propanoate catabolic pathways intersect with the formation of propanoyl-coA which in bacteria is generally fed into the TCA cycle through the methylcitrate pathway [49], which was significantly downregulated at 400 ppm in co-culture with all cyanobacteria even though other genes in these pathways were upregulated. Therefore, it is not clear what the ultimate fate of carbon from these sources is, although it is possible that EZ55 may be able to convert propanoyl-coA into a TCA cycle intermediate through another alternative pathway (e.g. as has been described in Mycobacterium tuberculosis via the methylmalonyl pathway [50]).Notably, gene transcription related to the utilization of all these products declined at 800 ppm pCO2 (Figs. 3, S8, S9). This was not unexpected for enzymes in the glycolate utilization pathways, as the increased CO2/O2 ratio at 800 ppm should decrease the rate of photorespiration relative to carbon fixation and therefore the availability of photorespiratory metabolites like glycolate [51, 52]. It is not clear, however, why organic and fatty acids would be less abundant in cyanobacterial exudates at 800 ppm. One possibility is that cyanobacteria release fewer of these compounds into the medium at high pCO2 because of a change in their internal redox state under these conditions favoring full oxidation of photosynthate. If future pCO2 conditions fundamentally alter the character of phytoplankton exudates, this could have profound implications for evolution and ecosystem functioning in future oceans.Evidence for inorganic nutrient limitation and competitionAutotrophic cyanobacteria and heterotrophic EZ55 were unlikely to compete over carbon under our experimental conditions, but we observed evidence of competition over inorganic nutrients such as N, P, and Fe. EZ55 phosphate, ammonium, and iron transporters, nitrogen regulatory protein P-II, and glutamine synthetase (the primary gateway for N assimilation in bacteria) were all more highly transcribed for all co-cultures compared to axenic cultures at 400 ppm pCO2 (Fig. S6), suggesting a switch from axenic carbon limitation to nutrient limitation in the presence of a continual supply of photosynthetically derived carbon (Fig. 5). On the other hand, few nutrient transporters were upregulated compared to axenic under 800 ppm pCO2. Although gene transcription data alone is not sufficient to conclude whether Alteromonas is limited by inorganic or organic nutrients, the reduced importance of nutrient acquisition suggests that EZ55 is carbon limited under these conditions just as it is in the absence of cyanobacteria.There were comparatively few species-specific changes in EZ55 nutrient transporter gene transcription. One example was an ammonium transporter, which was strongly upregulated in co-culture with both open ocean cyanobacteria (MIT9312 and WH8102) at 400 ppm pCO2. This may reflect a response to a comparatively high affinity for N in cyanobacteria adapted to the permanently oligotrophic open ocean, making them much stronger competitors for limiting N than coastal CC9311. N competition with EZ55 has been observed to increase the relative competitive fitness of Prochlorococcus vs. Synechococcus (coastal strain WH7803) in 3-way co-cultures [53]. In contrast, WH8102 appears to have higher N demand under 800 ppm pCO2, significantly upregulating a nitrate transporter and several genes related to urea utilization (Fig. S2). This may be explained by the enhanced transcription of carbon fixation genes and faster exponential growth rates observed in WH8102 at elevated pCO2, increasing N demand, and may indicate that WH8102 was C limited at 400 ppm.It is important to note that different N sources were provided in PEv medium (in which axenic EZ55 and MIT9312 co-cultures were grown) and SEv medium (in which CC9311 and WH8102 co-cultures were grown), with NH4+ in the former and NO3- in the latter. However, we do not think this difference can explain the observed changes in gene regulation, since EZ55 is capable of growth using either N source. It is interesting to note, however, that EZ55’s ammonium transporter was upregulated in both media types (Fig. S6), suggesting it may be benefitting from ammonium excreted by Synechococcus in SEv co-cultures.Impacts of co-culture and pCO2 on stress conditionsEZ55 showed less transcription of stress-related genes at 400 than 800 ppm pCO2, and also less evidence of stress in co-culture with any cyanobacterium than in axenic culture by itself. Nearly every gene in the EZ55 genome related to protection from H2O2 was downregulated in co-culture at 400 ppm, as were a suite of other stress-related genes (Fig. 2); on the other hand, many of these genes were significantly upregulated relative to axenic conditions at 800 ppm. Additionally, at 800 ppm there was a pronounced difference in EZ55 H2O2 defense gene transcription between cyanobacterial partners. As we described previously [7], both monofunctional catalases were downregulated at 800 ppm in co-culture with MIT9312, as were 2 of 3 alkylhydroperoxide reductase genes (although the third was significantly upregulated). In contrast, the monofunctional catalase genes were significantly upregulated in co-culture with WH8102 at 800 ppm. Elevated transcription of genes involved in the biosynthesis of glycine betaine, an osmoprotectant which has also been shown to function as an antioxidant [54, 55], provides further evidence for increased oxidative stress in co-culture with Synechococcus at 800 ppm in EZ55.Some indication of the mechanism behind EZ55’s changing stress level under co-culture and elevated pCO2 can be seen in the dynamics of three stress-related RNA polymerase sigma factors. Both rpoE and rpoH, responsible for controlling envelope and heat stress regulons, respectively, were downregulated at 400 ppm in co-culture relative to axenic and 800 ppm conditions; rpoE was significantly upregulated at 800 ppm pCO2. These trends are consistent with starvation-induced oxidative stress under both axenic and 800 ppm conditions, as discussed above. In contrast, rpoS was upregulated at 400 ppm pCO2, strongly so in co-culture with MIT9312. RpoS is a specialized sigma factor that accumulates under conditions of nutrient deprivation or as cells enter the stationary phase and serves to increase general stress resistance [56, 57]. For example, in Escherichia coli RpoS was shown to play a crucial role for survival during nitrogen deprivation [58]. While the decoupling of the transcription of oxidative stress genes like catalase from rpoS transcription was unexpected, rpoS trends are consistent with EZ55 being nutrient limited at 400 ppm pCO2 (Fig. S6) and with the upregulation of catalase in co-culture with MIT9312, but not WH8102 or CC9311, at 400 ppm (Fig. 2).In contrast to EZ55, differentially transcribed genes related to stress responses were rare in cyanobacteria at 800 ppm. While both MIT9312 and WH8102 had significant growth impairments at 800 ppm (Fig. S1), there was little evidence of a stress-specific gene transcription response in either strain. DNA mismatch repair genes were enriched as a group at 800 ppm in Prochlorococcus, although the only individual stress-related protein that was differentially transcribed was a HLI protein that was strongly downregulated at 800 ppm. No stress-related genes or gene sets were enriched in WH8102, and the small number of differentially transcribed stress genes in CC9311 (e.g., heat-shock and HLI proteins) were all downregulated at 800 ppm. This could indicate a dependence of both MIT9312 and WH8102 on their co-cultured EZ55 partner for protection, as neither of these cyanobacterial genomes contains catalase or several other stress-response genes common in heterotrophic bacteria. It could also indicate that they have different stress response mechanisms than those that have been characterized in heterotrophic bacteria; for instance, several hypothetical proteins of unknown function were differentially regulated in each cyanobacterium between the pCO2 conditions. Finally, it is possible that the stresses experienced by MIT9312 and WH8102 occurred in the initial days after transfer into fresh media (i.e., the significantly extended lag period observed for both), and were alleviated by the late log phase when the cultures were sampled for RNA sequencing.Summary overview of metabolic responsesWe have shown that the response to elevated pCO2 in our algal:bacterial co-cultures was driven more by interspecies interactions than by CO2-specific responses themselves. While it is important to note that we do not have direct culture-based evidence for some of these claims, we feel that gene transcription evidence is strong for several conclusions regarding the interactions in our cultures (Fig. 5).First, increased pCO2 appears to have fundamentally altered the amount and/or types of carbon compounds secreted by all three cyanobacterial strains examined, placing EZ55 into a stationary-phase metabolic state nearly indistinguishable to being in culture media with no added carbon source at all. We suggest that this is driven directly by the higher CO2:O2 ratio, which lowered the rate of photorespiration and subsequent release of 2PG and/or glycolate and indirectly may have reduced the amount of incompletely oxidized carbon released by cyanobacteria by changing the intracellular redox state [59]. Possibly because of the changing supply of carbon, EZ55 also appeared to transition away from a state of nutrient competition with its cyanobacterial partners, exemplified by decreased transcription of nutrient transporters at elevated pCO2 (Fig. S6).Second, co-culture at 400 ppm clearly reduced stress on EZ55 relative to either axenic growth or co-culture growth at 800 ppm, possibly due to the provision of a more reliable source of C as described above by the cyanobacterial partner under these conditions. In contrast, both MIT9312 and WH8102 clearly experienced elevated stress, potentially related to the changes in EZ55’s metabolism under these conditions. One of the major conclusions from our previous work [7] was the finding that EZ55 reduced catalase transcription at 800 ppm pCO2, eliminating the “helper” effect that Prochlorococcus depends on to grow in culture [13, 14]. In this work we see that the catalase response in co-culture with MIT9312 was opposite that in co-culture with the two Synechococcus strains. One possible explanation for this lies in the fact that MIT9312, unlike the other three strains in this study, did not possess a complete 2PG catabolism pathway and therefore likely excreted this product where it was subsequently catabolized by EZ55. We confirmed by genomic analysis (Figs. S10–S13) and culture experiments (Fig. 4) that EZ55 was able to grow on glycolate as a sole carbon source, and that its intracellular H2O2 concentration was elevated compared to growth on glucose. We suggest that more 2PG was secreted by MIT9312 at 400 ppm pCO2 due to the lower CO2:O2 ratio, and that growth on this carbon source increased EZ55’s internal oxidative stress load, resulting in higher transcription of H2O2 defenses such as catalase (Fig. 2). If true, this provides one possible explanation of why the “helper” relationship broke down at elevated pCO2 – by leaking 2PG as a readily available growth substrate for EZ55 at 400 ppm, MIT9312 forced EZ55 to maintain a high degree of intracellular ROS defense, leading to the well-characterized ability of EZ55 to cross-protect Prochlorococcus strains from the relatively lower H2O2 concentrations in the bulk environment, and allowing MIT9312 to eliminate two energetically costly enzymatic pathways. When higher pCO2 reduced the rate of photorespiration, EZ55’s need to produce excess catalase decreased, resulting in lower levels of protection, and concomitant growth impairments, for MIT9312.This is an example of how leaky Black Queen functions allow organisms like Prochlorococcus to streamline their metabolism while simultaneously creating stable interdependencies within their communities. However, it also shows how Black Queen-stabilized exchanges can break down. If our hypothesized relationship between pCO2 and catalase production is correct, then this system depends on the passive release of a metabolic by-product that evolved under a set of atmospheric pCO2 conditions that have been largely stable for thousands of years – but this leaves the system particularly vulnerable to the rapid changes in pCO2 currently taking place and may leave Prochlorococcus with no protection at all in the future ocean. If Prochlorococcus is outcompeted by less-streamlined competitors, this could reduce the overall efficiency of primary production in the open ocean gyres with possible positive feedbacks on CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere. Subsequent experiments should examine whether Prochlorococcus can overcome this imbalance through adaptive evolution quickly enough to avoid serious disruptions of its current niche.In conclusion, these results provide further support for the observation that axenic cultures do not provide a good window into the behavior of natural communities. The metabolism of Alteromonas sp. EZ55, a ubiquitous consumer in the ocean, was strongly dependent on its community context, and relatively subtle shifts in the chemical environment induced by elevated pCO2 were sufficient to significantly remodel its physiology. Moreover, the transcriptional response of EZ55 to changing pCO2 was much greater than that of any of the photoautotrophs examined, suggesting that more work is needed to understand the often-ignored heterotrophic bacteria associated with marine primary producers and how they will respond to global ocean change. Thus, further research is indicated on some of our core findings and hypotheses (e.g., the role of 2PG, and the nature of the carbon exchanged between the cyanobacteria and Alteromonas) via metabolomics or direct substrate measurements. These results further highlight the importance of laboratory experiments using co-cultures as an experimentally tractable intermediate between oversimplified axenic cultures and overly complicated natural communities. They also highlight the dominant role that primary producers play in determining the metabolism and interactions of the organisms that depend on them for sustenance. More

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Survey sites and data collectionBenthic and fish surveys were conducted at randomly stratified sites throughout the entirety of the FRT by NOAA’s National Coral Reef Monitoring Program (NCRMP). Sites were categorized into three biogeographic regions, including Dry Tortugas (DRTO, n = 228), Florida Keys (FLKs, n = 322), and Southeast Florida (SEFL, n = 173) (Fig. 1). The Florida Keys were further classified into the following four sub-regions: Lower Keys (LK, n = 103), Middle Keys (MK, n = 46), Upper Keys (UK, n = 140), Biscayne (BISC, n = 33). Within each region/sub-region (except for SEFL), reefs were categorized according to reef types. For DRTO, this included bank, forereef, and lagoon reef sites. For the LK, MK, UK, and BISC, reef types were categorized as inshore, mid-channel, and offshore. Data were collected throughout the region in 2014, 2016, and 2018.Fish and benthic surveys were conducted in accordance with NCRMP methodologies34 (Table S2). The protocol used for the fish surveys was developed from a modified Reef Visual Census (RVC) method35 and was performed using a stratified random sampling design. Divers surveyed two 15 m diameter cylinders, spaced 15 m apart. Fish species were identified to the lowest taxonomic level for a period of five minutes. This was followed by an additional five minutes dedicated to recording species abundances and sizes (10 cm bins).Surveys were used to quantify the benthic cover at each site. The protocol for these surveys followed a standard line point-intercept sampling design. At each site, a 15 m weighted transect was draped along the reef surface. Surveyors recorded benthic composition at 15 cm intervals along the transect (i.e., 100 equidistant points). The benthic composition from these 100 points was then transformed to percent cover of ecologically important functional groups (scleractinian coral [species-specific], gorgonians, hydrocoral, CCA, macroalgae, turf algae, sponges, bare/dead substrate, sand/sediment).Carbonate budget analysisPlanar benthic surveys were adjusted to account for the three-dimensional complexity (i.e., rugosity) of each site using light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data (1 m horizontal resolution; 15 cm vertical resolution) from topobathymetric mapping surveys of the South Florida eastern coastline conducted by NOAA’s National Geodetic Survey. A 15 m x 15 m region of interest (ROI) was placed around the GPS coordinates of each site using ArcGIS Pro with 3D and Spatial Analyst extensions (ESRI). The ROI was then overlaid with existing multibeam echosounder (MBES) and LiDAR bathymetry data. Within the ROI, LiDAR was extracted using the Clip Raster function from ArcPy (ArcGIS’s python coding interface), and the Surface Volume tool was used to calculate the 3D surface area. Rugosity was calculated by dividing the 3D surface area by the 2D surface area of the ROI.The methodology for standardizing reef carbonate budgets to topographic complexity (i.e., rugosity) diverged from that of the ReefBudget approach by using site-specific rugosity rather than species-specific rugosity17. This was a necessary limitation of this analysis as transect rugosity at 1 m increments was not measured using the NCRMP benthic survey protocol. To ensure that reef topographic complexity was still accounted for, however, rugosity of the entire reef site, calculated from LiDAR bathymetry data, was used in this analysis. While rugosity of the site rather than of each benthic component, specifically for corals, can lead to an under or overestimation of carbonate production rates, we note that site and species rugosity (i.e., encrusting and massive coral morphologies) was low for the vast majority of sites and species surveyed, thereby reducing the probability of an under or overestimation.Reef carbonate budget analysis was performed following a modified version of the ReefBudget approach17. Coral carbonate production was derived from species-specific linear extension rates (cm year−1), skeletal density (g cm−3), coral morphology (branching, massive, sub-massive, encrusting/plating), and percent cover. Carbonate production by CCA and other calcareous encrusters was similarly calculated as a function of surface area, literature reported linear extension rates, and skeletal density17. Gross carbonate production at each survey site was measured as the sum total of carbonate production by all calcareous organisms found at each site and was standardized to site-specific reef rugosity.Gross carbonate erosion for each survey-site was calculated as the sum total of erosion by four bioeroding groups: parrotfish, microborers, macroborers, and urchins. The calculations roughly followed the ReefBudget methodologies17 (Table 1). Parrotfish size frequency distributions from NCRMP surveys were multiplied by size and species-specific bite rates (bites min−1), volume removed per bite (cm3), and proportion of bites leaving scars to calculate total parrotfish erosion17. The substrate density (1.72 g cm−3) used in these calculations followed that of the ReefBudget protocol17. Microbioerosion was calculated from the percent cover of dead coral substrate, which was multiplied by a literature-derived rate17 of − 0.240 kg CaCO3 m−2 year−1. Macroboring was calculated as the percent cover of clionid sponges multiplied by the average erosion rate of all Caribbean/Atlantic clionid sponges17 (-6.05 kg CaCO3 m−2 year−1). External bioerosion by urchins was calculated using Diadema urchin abundance collected from the benthic surveys. Due to the lack of test size data from the NCRMP benthic surveys, urchin abundance was multiplied by the bioerosion rate of an average test sized36 (66 mm) Caribbean/Atlantic Diadema urchin (-0.003 kg CaCO3 m-2 year−1). While using an average test sized Diadema urchin for this analysis may have led to an under or overestimation of urchin erosion, the abundance of Diadema urchins measured in the surveys was minimal, as they appeared to be functionally irrelevant across the FRT.Model validationAs the survey methodologies and data sources employed in this analysis were modified from that of the standard ReefBudget approach17, we chose to validate our model through a fine scale temporal comparison of annual ReefBudget surveys conducted by NOAA at Cheeca Rocks (UK) to three nearby NCRMP sites used in our analysis. Since the NCRMP surveys were performed in 2014, 2016, and 2018, this study focused exclusively on these three survey years from the NOAA Cheeca Rocks dataset. Temporal trends related to reef growth/erosion were visually compared to see if survey types provided comparable results (SI Figure S6).Statistical analysisAll model calculations and statistical analyses were performed using R37 with the R Studio extension38. Generalized linear models (GLMs) were run on response variables involved in habitat production (i.e., net carbonate production, gross carbonate production, and gross carbonate erosion) to evaluate spatial trends related to reef development across sub-regions and reef types. Each GLM was performed with reef type being nested within sub-region. The best fit distribution for each variable was determined using the fitdistrplus R package39. Linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between net carbonate production and both live coral cover and parrotfish biomass. All plots were created using ggplot2 R package40 and edited for style with Adobe Illustrator41. More