Philippa Kaur

Land coverUrban landscapes are characterized by small clusters of patches, forming land mosaics that are distinct from natural landscapes. An accurate estimation of climate forcing requires a land cover dataset at high resolutions that does not omit small urban patches. In this study, the RF estimates are based on 500-m and 1-km land cover datasets. This fine resolution is necessary to preserve spatial details of small urban patches while avoiding the large underestimation of urban land areas at coarse resolution (e.g., ~19% underestimation at 10 km compared to that at 1 km)3. We used 500-m resolution MODIS Land Cover product (MCD12Q1v006) for historical land cover changes. For future urban land cover distributions, we used the global urban land expansion products simulated under the SSPs for 2030–2100 (i.e., Chen-2020)4. The simulation performance was tested using historical urban expansion from 2000 to 2015 based on Global Human Settlement Layer51, where the agreement between simulated and observed urban land was evaluated using the Figure of Merit (FoM) indicator52 that has showed similar or better values than those reported in other existing land simulation applications4. The high-resolution Chen-2020 also shows very high spatial consistency with the prominent coarse resolution global urban land projection LUH2 that is recommended in CMIP64. Considering different scenarios is also necessary to account for the uncertainties of future socioeconomic and environmental conditions, so we included simulated urban lands under three scenarios (Supplementary Table 1): Sustainability -SSP1, Middle of the Road – SSP2, and Fossil-fueled Development – SSP553. Within each SSP scenario, the product provides a likelihood map of each grid becoming urban, based on 100 urbanization simulations. We used the likelihood map to account for spatial uncertainties of urban expansion by deriving 90% confidence intervals of projected urban land demand within a SSP scenario. We used the MODIS IGBP Land Cover classes (Supplementary Table 2) and resampled the original 500-m resolution MODIS products in 2018 to 1-km resolution to match the future simulations when it was used as a baseline year. To isolate the independent effect of urbanization (vs other types of land uses) in future estimates, land covers that are not converted to urban are assumed to have the same cover types as in 2018 (i.e., the baseline year). Though there are other global land cover products for current periods, we choose the MODIS IGBP land cover products because the albedo look-up maps (LUMs) were based on IGBP land cover types (see Albedo Look-Up Maps).To further evaluate the uncertainties caused by different projections of future urbanization, we also included the other two SSPs from Chen-2020, and another two 1-km resolution urban land cover products projected for the future for the purpose of comparison. The other two products include four projections of SRES scenarios (i.e., A1, B1, A1B, and B2) (i.e., Li-2017 mentioned above)3 and one without scenario description but assumed historical development would continue (i.e., Zhou-2019 mentioned above)2. These projections of future urban land expansion were calibrated with different historical urban land products and can be regarded as independent.Albedo look-up maps (LUMs)Albedo Look-Up Maps (LUMs)31 were derived from the intersection of MODIS land cover54 and surface albedo55 products, which are used to determine the albedo values for each IGBP land cover type by month and by location. Monthly means of white-sky (i.e., diffuse surface illumination condition) and black sky (i.e., direct surface illumination condition) during 2001–2011 were processed for snow-free and snow-covered periods for each of the 17 IGBP land cover classes at spatial resolutions of 0.05°−1°31. The LUMs have been verified by comparing the reconstructed albedo using the LUMs with the original MODIS albedo, which shows very similar values31. We used the LUMs at a resolution of 1° due to the significantly fewer missing values, to assure the spatial continuity of albedo changes at a global scale while keeping the matches with the 1° resolution of radiation data and RF kernels. The underlying assumption is that albedo of the same land cover type varies insignificantly within a 1° grid.Snow and radiation productSnow cover can significantly change the albedo of land regardless of cover types (Supplementary Fig. 4). In this study, we tally monthly albedo using snow-free and snow-covered categories in estimating RF. Past and present snow-free and snow-covered conditions were derived from level 3 MODIS/Terra Snow Cover (MOD10CM.006)56 at 0.05° spatial resolution and resampled to a 1° spatial resolution. Monthly means of 2001–2005 vs 2015–2019 were used for 2001 and 2018 respectively. For future periods, ensemble mean snow cover for each year and month, projected under the CMIP5 framework for three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were used (for more details see Supplementary Note 2B). By comparing the model outputs with MODIS observations for a recent decade (2006–2015), we found that the multi-model mean snow cover was systematically biased compared to MODIS observations. Consequently, we calibrated the ensemble mean projections by subtracting the biases for the grids. In each 10th year of the future (e.g., 2030, 2040, etc.), the decadal monthly mean snow cover (e.g., 2026–2035 for 2030, and 2036–2045 for 2040, etc.) was used for the year.We used the long-term monthly averages (1981–2010) of diffuse and direct incoming surface solar radiation reanalysis Gaussian grid product from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)57. Visible and near infrared beam downward radiation and diffuse downward radiation from NCEP were used to compute the white-sky and black-sky fractions. As for snow cover, ensemble mean shortwave radiation at surface (SWSF) and at top-of-atmosphere (SWTOA) projected from CMIP5 models (Supplementary Note 3C) for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 were collected for empirically computing future albedo kernels (see section 3.4 below).Radiative kernelsRadiative kernels were used to compute top-of-atmosphere RF due to small perturbations of temperature, water vapor, and albedo. We used the latest state-of-the-art albedo kernels calculated with CESM v1.1.258 to compute RF in 2018 relative to 2001. In brief, the albedo kernel is the change in top-of-atmosphere radiative flux for a 0.01 change in surface albedo. The CESM1.1.2 kernels are separated into clear- and all-sky illumination conditions. We used the all-sky kernels because we include both black-sky and white-sky albedos. For future periods, because there are no available radiative kernels produced from general circulation models, we approximated the future kernels using an empirical parameterization following Bright et al.59:$${K}_{m}left(iright)={{SW}}^{{SF}}(i)times {sqrt}left(frac{{{SW}}^{{SF}}(i)}{{{SW}}^{{TOA}}(i)}right)/(-100)$$
(1)
where m is the month, i is the location, and SWSF and SWTOA are the surface and top-of-atmosphere shortwave radiation; dividing by −100 is for matching the CESM1.1.2 kernel definition of a 0.01 change in surface albedo.Estimation of albedo change and RFWe analyzed the RF in 2018 due to albedo changes caused by urbanization since 2001 (2018–2001), and in the future from 2030 to 2100 at decadal intervals (i.e., 2030, 2040, 2050, …, and 2100) since 2018 under three illustrative scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, which combine SSP-based urbanization projections and RCP-based climate projections. The three illustrative scenarios were selected following the scenario designation of the latest IPCC report50 and represent low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with CO2 emissions declining to net zero around or after 2050, intermediate GHG emissions with CO2 emissions remaining around current levels until the mid-century, and very high CO2 emissions that roughly double from current levels by 2050, respectively. We selected 2018 as the baseline year to divide the past from the future because 2018 was the latest year with available MODIS land cover products at the time of this study. We used ArcGIS 10.6 to produce spatial maps of all variables, including area of each land cover type within a 1° × 1°-grid, snow cover, albedo, radiation, and kernels, and R 3.6.1 to compute the RF.We focused only on albedo changes induced by urbanization, including the conversions from all other 16 IGBP land cover types to urban land. The changes of albedo for each grid (x, y) of a month (m) were obtained by computing the difference between albedo of that grid in the baseline year (t = t0) and in a later year (t = t1) with urban expansion:$${triangle alpha }_{m,t1-t0}(x,y)={alpha }_{m,t=t1}(x,y)-{alpha }_{m,t=t0}(x,y)$$
(2)
where αm, t = t1 (x, y) and αm, t = t0) (x, y) is the albedo for each grid (x,y) of a month (m) at the base year and later year respectively; the grid-scale albedo is computed as the weighted sum of albedo by land cover types with the weighing factor corresponding to areal percentage of a land cover within the grid. The albedo for each land cover type of a grid was then obtained by applying the albedo LUMs that provide spatially continuous black-sky, white-sky, snow-covered, and snow-free albedo maps for a given month for each land cover. Firstly, monthly mean albedo is computed as:$${alpha }_{m,t}(x,y)=mathop{sum }limits_{l=1}^{17}mathop{sum }limits_{s=0}^{1}mathop{sum }limits_{r=0}^{1}{{f}_{l,t}(x,y){f}_{s,m,t}(x,y)f}_{r,m,t}(x,y)left({alpha }_{l,s,r,m}(x,y)right)$$
(3)
where m is the month, t is the year, l is the land cover type, fl is the proportion of a cover type within the grid, fs,m,t is the fraction for snow-covered (s = 0) and snow-free (s = 1) conditions of the time (m, t), fr,m,t (x, y) is the fraction for white-sky (r = 0) or black-sky (r = 1) conditions of the time, and αl,s,r,m (x, y) is the albedo for land cover type l in month m that is extracted from the albedo LUMs corresponding to snow condition (s) and radiation condition (r). The annual mean albedo change is reported as the mean of monthly albedo change:$${triangle alpha }_{t1-t0}(x,y)=frac{1}{12}mathop{sum }limits_{m=1}^{m=12}({alpha }_{m,t=t1}(x,y)-{alpha }_{m,t=t0}(x,y))$$
(4)
The conversion of other land covers to urban land can contribute differently to the global RF, as the total area that is converted into urban land is different among non-urban land covers and the albedo differences between urban land and non-urban land cover types vary. To estimate the proportional contributions of different land conversions, we first decomposed the total albedo of each grid into the proportion of each land cover type:$${alpha }_{l,m,t}(x,y)={f}_{l,m,t}(x,y)mathop{sum }limits_{s=0}^{1}mathop{sum }limits_{r=0}^{1}{f}_{s,m,t}(x,y){f}_{r,m,t}(x,y)left({alpha }_{l,s,r,m}(x,y)right)$$
(5)
The global RF due to albedo change caused by conversion from each non-urban land cover type (l ≠ 13) to urban land (l = 13) (see Supplementary Table 2 land cover labels) was calculated as:$${{RF}}_{triangle alpha ,l(lne 13),{global}}=frac{1}{{A}_{{Earth}}}mathop{sum }limits_{i=1}^{n}mathop{sum }limits_{m=1}^{12}{({alpha }_{13,m,t=t1}left(iright)-{alpha }_{l,m,t=t0}left(iright))Delta p}_{lto 13}left(iright){Area}left(iright){K}_{m}(i)$$
(6)
where i refers to a grid, n is the total number of pixels on global lands, AEarth is the global surface area (5.1  ×  108 km2), α13,m,t = t1) (i) is the albedo of urban land in month m in the later year with urban expansion, αl,m,t = t0 (i) is the albedo of a targeted non-urban land cover type in the base year t0, Δpl→13 is the percentage of the non-urban land cover type that is converted to urban land in the year t1 compared to year t0, Area(i) is the area of the pixel, and Km (i) is the radiative kernel at the grid.The global RF due to urbanization-induced albedo changes was then calculated as:$${{RF}}_{triangle alpha ,{global}}=mathop{sum }limits_{l=1}^{17}{{RF}}_{triangle alpha ,l,{global}}(l,ne, 13)$$
(7)
GWP: CO2-equivalentWe followed GWP calculations by explicitly accounting for the lifetime and dynamic behavior of CO2 to convert RF to CO2 equivalent60,61:$${GWP}[{kg},{of},{{CO}}_{2}-{eq}]=frac{{int }_{t=0}^{{TH}}{{RF}}_{triangle alpha ,{global}}(t)}{{k}_{{CO}_2}{int }_{t=0}^{{TH}}{y}_{{{CO}}_{2}}(t)}$$
(8)
where kCO2 is radiative efficiency of CO2 in the atmosphere (W/m2/kg) at a constant background concentration of 389 ppmv, which is taken as 1.76  ×  1015 W/m2/kg62, and RF∆α,global is the global RF caused by albedo changes (W/m2). ({y}_{{{CO}}_{2}}) is the impulse-response function (IRF) for CO2 that ranges from 1 at the time of the emission pulse (t = 0) to 0.41 after 100 years, and here it is set to a mean value of 0.52 over 100 years60. The time horizon (TH) of our GWP calculations was fixed at 100 years following IPCC standards and previous studies60,63,64.Global mean surface air temperature changeWe estimated the 100-year global mean surface temperature change for the estimated RF by adopting an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean surface air temperature increase that follows a doubling of pre-industrial atmospheric carbon dioxide (RF = 3.7 W/m2). Given a value of RF induced by a forcing agent, the temperature change is estimated as RF/3.7 × ECS. To consider the uncertainties of ECS, we adopted a mean value of 3 °C and a very likely (90% confidence interval) range of 2–5 °C following IPCC AR650. Without knowing the exact distribution shape of ECS and future albedo-change-induced RF, we created a log-normal distribution (Supplementary Note 4) to approximate their asymmetric distribution through numerical simulation. We then conducted Monte Carlo simulations that draw 5000 random samples from each distribution to jointly estimate the uncertainties of global mean surface air temperature changes. We report the mean and 90% interval ranges of the change in temperature. More

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Dynamic in-flight flock organizationIt is commonly assumed that during flocking, flock members follow three basic interaction rules: Attraction, Repulsion and Alignment, to coordinate spatial positions between each other18. To study the spatial organization of our zebra finch flock during flight, the spatial positions of all birds in the flight section were tracked in every fifth frame (sample rate: 24 Hz (that is, frames per second)) of the synchronized footage recorded by two high-speed digital video cameras (Camera 1: centred upwind view, Fig. 1a,b; Camera 2: upturned vertical view, Fig. 1a,c) for the entire duration (51.7, 58.3, 69.2 and 127 s) of four (session 2, 5, 8 and 13) out of 13 flight sessions. Flight paths were reconstructed from the tracking data for each bird in the flock, with horizontal and vertical coordinates delivered by Camera 1 and coordinates in wind direction delivered by Camera 2. The data show that each bird mainly occupied a particular area in the flight section, and that this spatial preference was stable over different flight sessions. Bird Green, for example, was preferentially flying very low above the flight section’s floor, and bird Lilac preferred to fly at upwind positions in front of the flock (Fig. 1d, Extended Data Figs. 1 and 3 and Supplementary Information).Despite their preference in flight area, all birds constantly changed their spatial positions fast and rhythmically along the horizontal dimension of the flight section (Fig. 1e–g, Extended Data Figs. 2 and 4, Supplementary Video 1 and Supplementary Information). This behaviour is reminiscent of the flight behaviour of wild zebra finches: when being surprised in flight by a predator, zebra finches fly in a rapid zig-zag course low above the ground, heading for nearby vegetation16. Whether the sideways oscillating flight manoeuvres, which are performed by both wild birds in open space and domesticated birds in the wind tunnel’s flight section, are caused by the close proximity to the ground or are part of an escape reaction is yet unknown.From the tracking data, we further calculated the spatial distances in all three dimensions between all pairwise combinations of birds throughout the four flight sessions (sample rate: 24 Hz). When normalized to the maximum distance detected for each bird pairing, each dimension and each flight session, mean distances of bird pairings in all dimensions were narrowly distributed within a range of 27.7–38.0% of maximum distance (Fig. 1h and Supplementary Table 1). This may indicate that during flocking flight, zebra finches actively balance Attraction and Repulsion to maintain a stable 3D distance towards all other members of the flock. Owing to the spatial limitations in the wind tunnel’s flight section, we did not expect the zebra finches to perform large-scale flight manoeuvres with movements aligned between all flock members (Extended Data Fig. 5 and Supplementary Information), as can be observed, for example, in freely flying flocks of homing pigeons (Columba livia domestica)19 and white storks (Ciconia Ciconia)20.Visually guided horizontal repositioningWhen observing the dynamic spatial organization of our zebra finch flock, a question immediately arises: how do the birds prevent collisions during their frequent horizontal position changes? When considering the spatial limitation experienced by the flock of six birds during flight in the flight section and their highly dynamic flight style, collision rates seemed to be astonishingly low (median: 0.02 Hz; interquartile range (IQR): 0–0.03 Hz; n = 13 sessions) during flocking flight (in total 16 collisions in 13 min of analysed flight time). In birds, the visual system represents the main input channel for environmental information. To tackle the above question, we therefore first investigated the role of vision during flocking flight, and tested whether a bird’s viewing direction was correlated with the direction of horizontal position change. As gaze changes are governed by head movements in birds21, we used a bird’s head direction as an indicator for the orientation of its visual axis. We tracked (sample rate: 120 Hz) the position of a bird’s beak tip and neck in each frame of the footage during ten horizontal position changes (Fig. 2a and Supplementary Video 2) per bird, and found a strong interaction between a bird’s head angle relative to the wind direction and its direction of horizontal position change. During horizontal position changes, the birds always turned their heads in the direction of the position change (Fig. 2b). While the population’s median absolute angle of position change was 84.0° (IQR: 78.6–87.2°; n = 60) relative to 0° in wind direction, the population’s median absolute head turning angle was 36.0° (IQR: 26.4–42.5°; n = 60; see Supplementary Information for results on head movements during solo flight). The eyes of zebra finches are positioned laterally on their heads22 and each retina features a small region of highest ganglion cell density (fovea, that is, region of highest visual spatial resolution) at an area that receives visual input from horizontal positions at 60° relative to the midsagittal plane23. By turning their heads by about 36° during horizontal position changes, the zebra finches roughly align the foveal area in the retina of one eye with their direction of position change, and in the retina of the other eye with the wind direction (Fig. 2c,d). Thus, head turns in the direction of position change may indicate that the birds use visual cues while repositioning themselves within the flock. This hypothesis is supported by a study on zebra finch head movements performed during an obstacle avoidance task. In this study, instead of fixating on the obstacle, zebra finches turned their head in the direction of movement while navigating around the obstacle24.Fig. 2: Horizontal position changes are accompanied by head turns.a, Head and body orientation of bird Orange (ventral view) during one example of position changes to the right, tracked (sample rate: 120 Hz) in the footage of Camera 2. Circles: beak tip positions; plus signs: neck positions; upward pointing triangles: tail base positions. Cutouts of freeze frames of the footage taken with Camera 2 show the bird’s head and body posture for 11 time points during the position change. b, In all birds, the median angle of head turn during horizontal position change in flocking flight is positively correlated (linear mixed effects model (LMM), estimates ± s.e.m.: 2.05 ± 0.1, P  More

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