Ecology

Area-based sub-targetWe found that 13.2% of Asian terrestrial landscapes were covered by PAs by the target date for Aichi 11 based on our in-country sources. However, it was 17.4% lower based on WDPA data (10.9%). The average increase in coverage across Asia during the 2010s was 0.4% ± SE 0.1% per year. PA coverage at the level of individual countries increased from a mean 11.1% in 2010 (SE = 1.4%) to 14.1% by 2020 (SE = 1.8%) based on our in-country sources, which was 16.5% higher than WDPA data (12.1 ± SE 1.6%). However, these overall figures concealed considerable country-level and sub-regional heterogeneity.A total of 8,673,433 km2 across 10 countries, equaling 19.6% of Asian terrestrial landscapes was managed as hunting concessions, governed by governments, communities or private sectors, but these areas have not been included in the countries’ report to the Protected Planet Initiative databases. Most of these areas are locally important in terms of biodiversity conservation and local socioeconomic outcomes which may qualify them as examples of “other effective area-based conservation measures” (OECMs). The increase in area-based conservation coverage represented by these areas, above the current Protected Planet Initiative statistic, ranged from 0.2% (Iran) to 41.4% (Russia). With that update incorporated, a total of 32.9% of Asian terrestrial landscapes are under protection, either as protected areas or hunting concessions (potentially as one type of OECMs).We found that 40% of Asian countries met a target of 17% coverage for PAs by 2020 based on our in-country sources, mainly in East and some South Asia, whereas West and Central Asian countries had generally not achieved this target (Figs. 1 and 2). We did not find any statistically significant association between the proportions of highly at-risk (CR/EN) mammalian species range outside PAs and the % PA extent in 2020 (β = −0.22 ± SE 0.15, t = −1.51, P = 0.14 in a Generalized Linear Model). The highest proportions of the highly at-risk (CR/EN) mammalian species range outside PAs were seen in West (βCR/EN_outsidePA = 1.77 ± SE 0.46, t = 3.86, P 10%, but Kuwait lost area. In East Asia, all countries showed at least some PA expansion (South Korea and Japan by >10%) whereas in Central Asia, almost no change was seen. It is also noteworthy that between 2010 and 2015, agricultural lands increased by 2.0% across the continent, averaging 0.51 ± SE 0.03% per year at country level, although 18 counties (45.0%) had agricultural land loss, mainly in West and Central Asia (12 out of 18 countries with agricultural land loss; Fig. 2).In our attempt to model the variation in achievement of area-based target (% PA extent), we found a single model with a ΔAICc weight of 1.0 (R2adj = 0.66; Table 1). There was no evidence to reject the null hypothesis that the model fits well (P = 0.99). This model included the predictors % agricultural extent in 2015, % PA extent in 2010, and sub-region (Table 1). Specifically, the coefficients suggested that countries with greater PA extent in 2010 and a smaller percentage of agricultural lands in 2015 were more likely to achieve higher percentage of PA extent by 2020 (βPAExtent2020 = 0.58 ± SE 0.10, t = 5.74, P  0.05).Table 2 Results of generalized linear models testing different hypotheses on the association between the percentage of ecoregions protected by the PA network in 2020 and ecological and geopolitical factors in Asian countries.Full size tableFor the coverage of highly at-risk (CR/EN) mammalian species, a single statistical model was also selected, with non-significant deviance goodness of fit (P = 0.83), which included only the % PA extent by 2020 and Region as predictors (R2adj = 0. 27). Although there was no evidence for association between the % PA extent by 2020 and the coverage of threatened species (βPAExtent2020 = −0.23 ± SE 0.15, t = −1.57, P = 0.13). However, the coverage of threatened species varied geographically, with high intercept differences for East Asia (βEastAsia = −0.23 ± SE 0.15, t = −1.57, P = 0.13), implying the largest median of range of highly at-risk (CR/EN) mammalian species outside the current network of PAs within each country.PA management effectiveness sub-targetFor the level of PAME assessment, we found that out of 22781 PAs within the 40 studied Asian countries, only 7.0% have been assessed based on PAME criteria (n = 1599), averaging 17.4% ± of PAs per country (SE = 2.5%). Israel, Japan, Lao, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar had no PA assessed based on the PAME criteria while over 1/3 of PAs in Indonesia, Cambodia, Bhutan, Jordan, Nepal, Turkey, Singapore and the UAE were PAME assessed. When modeling the level of PAME assessment, three best supported models were averaged (Table 3), with the averaged model including GDP2019, % PA extent 2020 and the Region as predictors. The averaged model coefficients would be non-significant under a hypothesis-testing approach (βGDP2019 = −0.18 ± SE 0.12, t = 1.47, P = 0.14 and βPAExtent2020 = −0.15 ± SE 0.11, t = 1.31, P = 0.19). Similarly, there was no evidence for the association between the ratio of PAs with PAME and Asian regions (P  > 0.05).Table 3 Results of generalized linear models testing different hypotheses on the association between the ratio of PAs with management effectiveness (PAME) in 2020 and ecological and geopolitical factors in Asian countries.Full size table More

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Differences in environmental factorsEnvironmental factors showed value differences between forest types, while the significance of differences differed among variables, which were both found with corrected values and original measurements (Fig. 1).Figure 1The differences in environmental factors between naturally regenerating forests (NF) and planted forests (PF) in China. The environmental factors include three annual climatic factors (a–c), three seasonal temperature factors (d–f), three seasonal precipitation factors (g–i), three biotic factors (j–l), and two soil factors (m,n). Three annual climatic factors include mean annual air temperature (MAT, a), mean annual precipitation (MAP, b), and aridity index (AI, c) defined as the ratio of MAP to annual potential evapotranspiration. Three seasonal temperature factors include the temperature of the warmest month (Tw, d), the temperature of the coldest month (Tc, e), temperature annual range (TR, f). Three seasonal precipitation factors include precipitation of the wettest month (Pw, g), precipitation of the driest month (Pd, h), and precipitation seasonality (Ps, i) defined as the standard deviation of monthly precipitation during the measuring year. Three biological factors include the mean annual leaf area index (LAI, j), the maximum leaf area index (MLAI, k), and stand age (SA, l). Two soil factors include soil organic carbon content (SOC, m) and soil total nitrogen content (STN, n). The differences are tested for each variable with one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), where * and ** indicate significant differences between forest types at significance levels of α = 0.05 and α = 0.01, respectively. The corrected values are mean values during 2003–2019 after correcting the original measurements with the interannual trend (See methods), which are listed in each panel, while original measurements are mean values during the measuring period of each ecosystem, which are not shown in each panel.Full size imageFor annual climatic factors, the significant difference between NF and PF only appeared in MAT (Fig. 1a). The mean MAT of NF was 10.50 ± 7.81 °C, which was significantly lower than that of PF (15.65 ± 6.23 °C) (p  0.05) (Fig. 2c). Even considering the significant effects of MAT on ER, ANCOVA results obtained by fixing MAT as a covariant also suggested that ER values did not significantly differ between forest types (F = 0.01, p  > 0.05). Fixing other variables as a covariant also drew a similar result.Therefore, NF showed a lower NEP resulting from the lower GPP than PF, while their differences were not statistically significant (Fig. 2).Differences in NEP latitudinal patternsCarbon fluxes showed divergent latitudinal patterns between NF and PF, while their latitudinal patterns varied among carbon fluxes, which were both found with corrected values and original measurements (Fig. 3).Figure 3The latitudinal patterns of carbon fluxes over Chinese naturally regenerating forests (NF) and planted forests (PF). The carbon fluxes include net ecosystem productivity (NEP, a,b), gross primary productivity (GPP, c,d), and ecosystem respiration (ER, e,f). Each panel is drawn with the corrected values (blue points) and original measurements (grey points), respectively. The blue and black lines represent the regression lines calculated from the corrected values and original measurements, respectively, with their regression statistics listed in blue and black letters. Only the regression slope (Sl) and R2 of each regression are listed. The grey lines represent the regressions between carbon fluxes added by random errors and latitude. Only significant (p  0.05).The ER of NF showed a significant decreasing latitudinal pattern (Fig. 3e), while that of PF exhibited no significant latitudinal pattern (Fig. 3f). The increasing latitude caused the ER of NF to significantly decrease. Each unit increase in latitude led to a 28.71 gC m−2 year−1 decrease in ER, with an R2 of 0.31. However, the increasing latitude contributed little to the ER spatial variation of PF (p  > 0.05).In addition, the latitudinal patterns of carbon fluxes and their differences between forest types were also obtained with the original measurements (Fig. 3, grey points). The latitudinal patterns of random error adding carbon fluxes were comparable to those of our corrected carbon fluxes (Fig. 3), which confirmed that the latitudinal patterns of carbon fluxes and their differences between forest types would not be affected by the uncertainties in generating the corrected carbon fluxes.Therefore, among NFs, the similar decreasing latitudinal patterns of GPP and ER meant that NEP showed no significant latitudinal pattern, while the significant decreasing latitudinal pattern of GPP and no significant latitudinal pattern of ER caused NEP to show a decreasing latitudinal pattern among PFs.Differences in the environmental effects on NEP spatial variationsEnvironmental factors, including the annual climatic factors, seasonal temperature factors, seasonal precipitation factors, biological factors, and soil factors, exerted divergent effects on the spatial variations of NEP and its components, which also differed between forest types (Table 1). No factor was found to affect that the spatial variation of NEP among NFs, while most annual and seasonal climatic factors were found to affect that among PFs. The spatial variations of GPP and ER among NFs were both affected by most annual and seasonal climatic factors and LAI, while those among PFs were primarily shaped by most annual and seasonal climatic factors. Though LAI showed no significant effect on GPP and ER spatial variations among PFs, SA exerted a significant negative effect. In addition, the spatial variations of soil variables contributed little to the spatial variations of carbon fluxes. Therefore, among NFs, most annual and seasonal climatic factors and LAI were found to affect GPP and ER spatial variations, while no factor was found to significantly influent the NEP spatial variation. However, among PFs, most annual and seasonal climatic factors were found to affect the spatial variations of NEP and its components, while LAI showed no significant effect. Using the original measurements also generated the similar correlation coefficients (Supplementary Table S1).Table 1 Correlation coefficients between carbon fluxes and environmental factors in naturally regenerating forests (NF) and planted forests (PF).Full size tableGiven the high correlations among annual climatic factors and seasonal climatic factors (Supplementary Table S2), the partial correlation analysis was applied to determine which factors should be employed to reveal the mechanisms underlying the spatial variations of NEP. Partial correlation analysis showed that MAT and MAP exerted the most important roles in spatial variations of NEP and its components (Table 2). After controlling MAT (or MAP), other factors seldom showed significant correlation with carbon fluxes, especially fixing MAT (Table 2). In addition, MAT and MAP exerted similar effects on the spatial variations of NEP and its components (Table 1). Using the original measurements also generated the similar partial correlation coefficients (Supplementary Table S3). Therefore, we only presented the effects of MAT on carbon flux spatial variations and their differences between forest types in detail.Table 2 Partial correlation coefficients between carbon fluxes and environmental factors in naturally regenerating forests (NF) and planted forests (PF) with fixing mean annual air temperature (MAT) or mean annual precipitation (MAP).Full size tableThe increasing MAT increased carbon fluxes, while the increasing rates differed between forest types (Fig. 4). The increasing MAT contributed little to the NEP spatial variation of NF but raised the NEP of PF (Fig. 4a,b). Each unit increase in MAT caused the NEP of PF to increase at a rate of 27.77 gC m−2 year−1, with an R2 of 0.31 (Fig. 4b). The increasing MAT significantly raised GPP in NF and PF (Fig. 4c,d). For NF, each unit increase in MAT increased GPP at a rate of 43.76 gC m−2 year−1, with an R2 of 0.49 (Fig. 4c), while each unit increase in MAT increased the GPP of PF at a rate of 69.18 gC m−2 year−1, with an R2 of 0.57 (Fig. 4d). The GPP increasing rates did not significantly differ between NF and PF (F = 1.52, p  > 0.05). The increasing MAT also raised ER in both NF and PF (Fig. 4e,f), whose increasing rates were 38.97 gC m−2 year−1 (Fig. 4e) and 36.79 gC m−2 year−1 (Fig. 4f), respectively, while their differences were not statistically significant (F = 0.01, p  > 0.05). In addition, using the original measurements also generated the similar spatial variations and their differences between forest types (Fig. 4). Furthermore, the random error adding carbon fluxes responded similarly to those of our correcting carbon fluxes (Fig. 4), indicating that the effects of MAT on carbon fluxes would not be affected by the uncertainties in our correcting carbon fluxes. Therefore, the similar responses of GPP and ER to MAT made MAT contribute little to NEP spatial variations among NFs, while GPP and ER showed divergent response rates to MAT, which made NEP increase with MAT among PFs.Figure 4The effects of mean annual air temperature (MAT) on the spatial variations of carbon fluxes over Chinese naturally regenerating forests (NF) and planted forests (PF). The carbon fluxes include net ecosystem productivity (NEP, a,b), gross primary productivity (GPP, c,d), and ecosystem respiration (ER, e,f). Each panel is drawn with the corrected values (blue points) and original measurements (grey points), respectively. The blue and black lines represent the regression lines calculated from the corrected values and original measurements, respectively, with their regression statistics listed in blue and black letters. Only the regression slope (Sl) and R2 of each regression are listed. The grey lines represent the regressions between carbon fluxes added by random errors and latitude. Only significant (p  More

Alpha diversity differences among communitiesNematode gut microbiomes were assigned into their respective species categories of E. antarcticus and P. murrayi based on 18S host data that was consistent with morphology (see Methods “Microinvertebrate haplotypes”). In contrast, due to recovery of three undiscernible 18S tardigrade haplotypes, the gut microbiomes were assigned to Tardigrada. Mat bacterial communities were significantly (Tukey’s HSD, P  0.65, χ2(1)  0.38, χ2(3)  More

As humans warm the planet, biodiversity is plummeting. These two global crises are connected in multiple ways. But the details of the intricate feedback loops between biodiversity decline and climate change are astonishingly under-studied.It is well known that climate extremes such as droughts and heatwaves can have devastating impacts on ecosystems and, in turn, that degraded ecosystems have a reduced capacity to protect humanity against the social and physical impacts of such events. Yet only a few such relationships have been probed in detail. Even less well known is whether biodiversity-depleted ecosystems will also have a negative effect on climate, provoking or exacerbating weather extremes.For us, a group of researchers living and working mainly in Central Europe, the wake-up call was the sequence of heatwaves of 2018, 2019 and 2022. It felt unreal to watch a floodplain forest suffer drought stress in Leipzig, Germany. Across Germany, more than 380,000 hectares of trees have now been damaged (see go.nature.com/3etrrnp; in German), and the forestry sector is struggling with how to plan restoration activities over the coming decades1. What could have protected these ecosystems against such extremes? And how will the resultant damage further impact our climate?
Nature-based solutions can help cool the planet — if we act now
In June 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) published their first joint report2, acknowledging the need for more collaborative work between these two domains. And some good policy moves are afoot: the new EU Forest Strategy for 2030, released in July 2021, and other high-level policy initiatives by the European Commission, formally recognize the multifunctional value of forests, including their role in regulating atmospheric processes and climate. But much more remains to be done.To thoroughly quantify the risk that lies ahead, ecologists, climate scientists, remote-sensing experts, modellers and data scientists need to work together. The upcoming meeting of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity in Montreal, Canada, in December is a good opportunity to catalyse such collaboration.Buffers and responsesWhen lamenting the decline in biodiversity, most people think first about the tragedy of species driven to extinction. There are more subtle changes under way, too.For instance, a study across Germany showed that over the past century, most plant species have declined in cover, with only a few increasing in abundance3. Also affected is species functionality4 — genetic diversity, and the diversity of form and structure that can make communities more or less efficient at taking up nutrients, resisting heat or surviving pathogen attacks.When entire ecosystems are transformed, their functionality is often degraded. They are left with less capacity to absorb pollution, store carbon dioxide, soak up water, regulate temperature and support vital functions for other organisms, including humans5. Conversely, higher levels of functional biodiversity increase the odds of an ecosystem coping with unexpected events, including climate extremes. This is known as the insurance effect6.The effect is well documented in field experiments and modelling studies. And there is mounting evidence of it in ecosystem responses to natural events. A global synthesis of various drought conditions showed, for instance, that forests were more resilient when trees with a greater diversity of strategies for using and transporting water lived together7.

Dead trees near Iserlohn, Germany, in April 2020 (left) and after felling in June 2021 (right).Credit: Ina Fassbender/AFP via Getty

However, biodiversity cannot protect all ecosystems against all kinds of impacts. In a study this year across plots in the United States and Canada, for example, mortality was shown to be higher in diverse forest ecosystems8. The proposed explanation for this unexpected result was that greater biodiversity could also foster more competition for resources. When extreme events induce stress, resources can become scarce in areas with high biomass and competition can suddenly drive mortality, overwhelming the benefits of cohabitation. Whether or not higher biodiversity protects an ecosystem from an extreme is highly site-specific.Some plants respond to drought by reducing photosynthesis and transpiration immediately; others can maintain business as usual for much longer, stabilizing the response of the ecosystem as a whole. So the exact response of ecosystems to extremes depends on interactions between the type of event, plant strategies, vegetation composition and structure.Which plant strategies will prevail is hard to predict and highly dependent on the duration and severity of the climatic extreme, and on previous extremes9. Researchers cannot fully explain why some forests, tree species or individual plants survive in certain regions hit by extreme climate conditions, whereas entire stands disappear elsewhere10. One study of beech trees in Germany showed that survival chances had a genomic basis11, yet it is not clear whether the genetic variability present in forests will be sufficient to cope with future conditions.And it can take years for ecosystem impacts to play out. The effects of the two consecutive hot drought years, 2018 and 2019, were an eye-opener for many of us. In Leipzig, tree growth declined, pathogens proliferated and ash and maple trees died. The double blow, interrupted by a mild winter, on top of the long-term loss of soil moisture, led to trees dying at 4–20 times the usual rate throughout Germany, depending on the species (see go.nature.com/3etrrnp; in German). The devastation peaked in 2020.Ecosystem changes can also affect atmospheric conditions and climate. Notably, land-use change can alter the brightness (albedo) of the planet’s surface and its capacity for heat exchange. But there are more-complex mechanisms of influence.Vegetation can be a source or sink for atmospheric substances. A study published in 2020 showed that vegetation under stress is less capable of removing ozone than are unstressed plants, leading to higher levels of air pollution12. Pollen and other biogenic particles emitted from certain plants can induce the freezing of supercooled cloud droplets, allowing ice in clouds to form at much warmer temperatures13, with consequences for rainfall14. Changes to species composition and stress can alter the dynamics of these particle emissions. Plant stress also modifies the emission of biogenic volatile organic gases, which can form secondary particles. Wildfires — enhanced by drought and monocultures — affect clouds, weather and climate through the emission of greenhouse gases and smoke particles. Satellite data show that afforestation can boost the formation of low-level, cooling cloud cover15 by enhancing the supply of water to the atmosphere.Research prioritiesAn important question is whether there is a feedback loop: will more intense, and more frequent, extremes accelerate the degradation and homogenization of ecosystems, which then, in turn, promote further climate extremes? So far, we don’t know.One reason for this lack of knowledge is that research has so far been selective: most studies have focused on the impacts of droughts and heatwaves on ecosystems. Relatively little is known about the impacts of other kinds of extremes, such as a ‘false spring’ caused by an early-season bout of warm weather, a late spring frost, heavy rainfall events, ozone maxima, or exposure to high levels of solar radiation during dry, cloudless weather.Researchers have no overview, much less a global catalogue, of how each dimension of biodiversity interacts with the full breadth of climate extremes in different combinations and at multiple scales. In an ideal world, scientists would know, for example, how the variation in canopy density, vegetation age, and species diversity protects against storm damage; and whether and how the diversity of canopy structures controls atmospheric processes such as cloud formation in the wake of extremes. Researchers need to link spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity with the responses of ecosystem processes to climate extremes.
Biodiversity needs every tool in the box: use OECMs
Creating such a catalogue is a huge challenge, particularly given the more frequent occurrence of extremes with little or no precedent16. Scientists will also need to account for the increasing likelihood of pile-ups of climate stressors. The ways in which ecosystems respond to compound events17 could be quite different. Researchers will have to study which facets of biodiversity (genetic, physiological, structural) are required to stabilize ecosystems and their functions against these onslaughts.There is at least one piece of good news: tools for data collection and analysis are improving fast, with huge advances over the past decade in satellite-based observations for both climate and biodiversity monitoring. The European Copernicus Earth-observation programme, for example — which includes the Sentinel 1 and 2 satellite fleet, and other recently launched missions that cover the most important wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum — offer metre-scale resolution observations of the biochemical status of plants and canopy structure. Atmospheric states are recorded in unprecedented detail, vertically and in time.Scientists must now make these data interoperable and integrate them with in situ observations. The latter is challenging. On the ground, a new generation of data are being collected by researchers and by citizen scientists18. For example, unique insights into plant responses to stress are coming from time-lapse photography of leaf orientation; accelerometer measures of movement patterns of stems have been shown to provide proxies for the drought stress of trees19.High-quality models are needed to turn these data into predictions. The development of functional ‘digital twins’ of the climate system is now in reach. These models replicate hydrometeorological processes at the metre scale, and are fast enough to allow for rapid scenario development and testing20. The analogous models for ecosystems are still in a more conceptual phase. Artificial-intelligence methods will be key here, to study links between climate extremes and biodiversity.Researchers can no longer afford to track global transformations of the Earth system in disciplinary silos. Instead, ecologists and climate scientists need to establish a joint agenda, so that humanity is properly forewarned: of the risks of removing biodiversity buffers against climate extremes, and of the risk of thereby amplifying these extremes. More

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