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A theme is emerging in this year’s United Nations conferences on biodiversity (COP15), climate change (COP27) and the international wildlife trade (COP19): countries are struggling to meet key conservation targets. We argue that field research stations are an effective — but imperilled and overlooked — tool that can help policy frameworks to meet those targets. We write on behalf of 149 experts from 47 countries.
Competing Interests
The authors declare no competing interests. More

I was filled with hope when I read the first draft of the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) in mid-2021. It seemed that the parties to the United Nations Convention on Biodiversity had learnt from bitter experience — the failure of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, set for the previous decade. Instead of vague aims, the draft framework incorporated most of the advice that the scientific community, myself included, had marshalled. It contained ambitious quantitative thresholds, such as those for the area of ecosystem to be protected, the percentage of genetic diversity to be maintained, and percentage reductions for overall extinction rates, pesticide use and subsidies harmful to biodiversity.Then came the square brackets. In the world of policy, these mark proposed amendments that the parties do not yet agree on. The square brackets proliferated at an alarming rate throughout the GBF text, enclosing, neutralizing and paralysing goals and targets. By July 2021, in a version about 10,200 words long, there were more than 900 pairs of square brackets.Brackets germinated with particular vigour in sections that could make the greatest difference for a better future because of their precision, ambition or conceptual novelty. Almost all quantitative thresholds had been bracketed or had disappeared.
The United Nations must get its new biodiversity targets right
I applaud the new prominence given to gender justice (with a new dedicated Target 22) and to financial resources and capacity building (Target 19). I wonder why other key aspects have not received the same treatment, and have instead been compressed almost beyond recognition. For example, the first draft highlighted that species, ecosystems, genetic diversity and nature’s contribution to people each needed their own specific, verifiable outcomes. Now they have coagulated into one vague yet verbose paragraph.This thicket of square brackets smothers the GBF and the hopes of those of us who see transformative change as the only way forward for life on Earth as we know it.In a titanic effort, a streamlined proposal from the Informal Group on the GBF has halved the brackets to be considered by the parties when they meet in Montreal, Canada, for the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) on 7–19 December.We need a text with teeth — and far fewer brackets. This much we have learnt in the 30 years since the foundational 1992 Rio Summit drew attention to the impact of human activities on the environment: a strong, precise, ambitious text does not in itself ensure successful implementation, but a weak, vague, toothless text almost guarantees failure.It was no surprise when the Convention on Biological Diversity officially declared the failure of its ten-year Aichi Targets. People involved at the international interface of biodiversity science and policy were already discussing how to do better in the next decade with the GBF.
Crucial biodiversity summit will go ahead in Canada, not China: what scientists think
The scientific community rose to the occasion. In just three years, we produced the first-ever intergovernmental appraisal of life on Earth and what it means to people: The Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services from IPBES (the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services), which I co-chaired. It was ready in time for the original 2020 date for COP15, before the global disruption caused by COVID-19. It was the most comprehensive ever synthesis of published information on the topic, an inclusive conceptual framework involving various disciplines and knowledge systems, and unprecedented participation of Indigenous peoples.Then, in 2020, we assembled an interdisciplinary team of more than 60 biodiversity scientists across the world, and within a few months produced detailed suggestions for the goals of the GBF. Since then, we have made the best of the many pandemic postponements by issuing a stream of specific, evidence-based recommendations on targets, scenarios and implementation.The scientific advice is convergent. First, the GBF needs to explicitly address each facet of biodiversity; none is a good substitute or umbrella for the others. Second, the biodiversity goals must be more ambitious than ever, accompanied by equally ambitious targets for concrete action and sufficient resources to make them happen. Third, the targets need to be precise, traceable and coordinated.Fourth, formally protecting a proportion of the planet’s most pristine ecosystems will by itself fall far short. Nature must be mainstreamed, incorporated in decisions made for the landscapes in which we live and work every day, well beyond protected areas. Finally, and most crucially, targets must focus on the root causes of biodiversity loss: the ways in which we consume, trade and allocate subsidies, incentives and safeguards.From previous experience, I expected objections to certain sections— pesticides and subsidies, say — but they are everywhere. Only 2 of the 22 targets have no brackets. Ironing out objections takes precious time. Because the framework can be enshrined only by consensus, too many objections can lead to too much compromise.Now, to avert failure, we exhort the governments gathering in Montreal to be brave, long-sighted and open-hearted, and to produce a visionary, ambitious biodiversity framework, grounded in knowledge. The awareness and mobilization of their constituencies has never been greater, the evidence in their hands never clearer. If not now, when?

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The author declares no competing interests. More

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Time using the rock as refugeTemperature had an effect in the refuge usage of both species when analysed together (lme.zig: F3,192 = 7.97, p = 0.0001; Fig. 1A). However, species behaved differently (lme.zig: F1,192 = 14.79, p = 0.0004; Fig. 1A). As hypothesised, there was an interaction between temperature and species (lme.zig: F3,192 = 11.90, p  0.14, Fig. 1B).Size had an effect in the time exploring the rock (lme: F1,192 = 6.91, p = 0.012, Fig. 3) when species were analysed together, but there was no interaction with temperatures (lme: F3,192 = 0.42, p = 0.74, Fig. 3). We found that the interaction between species and size was close to be significant (lme: F1,192 = 3.62, p = 0.064, Fig. 3), implying that possibly smaller fish spent more time exploring the rock than bigger fish. However, when analysed separately, we did not find an effect of size in the exploring behaviour neither for twoline skiffias (lme: F1,96 = 2.99, p = 0.099, Fig. 3) nor for guppies (lme: F1,96 = 0.33, p = 0.569, Fig. 3).Figure 3Proportion of the total time observed (600 s) fish of different sizes spent exploring the rock. Lines represent the areas where the density of data is higher.Full size imageTime spent swimmingTemperature had an effect in the time spent swimming for both species when analysed together (lme: F3,192 = 23.48, p  More

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Area-based sub-targetWe found that 13.2% of Asian terrestrial landscapes were covered by PAs by the target date for Aichi 11 based on our in-country sources. However, it was 17.4% lower based on WDPA data (10.9%). The average increase in coverage across Asia during the 2010s was 0.4% ± SE 0.1% per year. PA coverage at the level of individual countries increased from a mean 11.1% in 2010 (SE = 1.4%) to 14.1% by 2020 (SE = 1.8%) based on our in-country sources, which was 16.5% higher than WDPA data (12.1 ± SE 1.6%). However, these overall figures concealed considerable country-level and sub-regional heterogeneity.A total of 8,673,433 km2 across 10 countries, equaling 19.6% of Asian terrestrial landscapes was managed as hunting concessions, governed by governments, communities or private sectors, but these areas have not been included in the countries’ report to the Protected Planet Initiative databases. Most of these areas are locally important in terms of biodiversity conservation and local socioeconomic outcomes which may qualify them as examples of “other effective area-based conservation measures” (OECMs). The increase in area-based conservation coverage represented by these areas, above the current Protected Planet Initiative statistic, ranged from 0.2% (Iran) to 41.4% (Russia). With that update incorporated, a total of 32.9% of Asian terrestrial landscapes are under protection, either as protected areas or hunting concessions (potentially as one type of OECMs).We found that 40% of Asian countries met a target of 17% coverage for PAs by 2020 based on our in-country sources, mainly in East and some South Asia, whereas West and Central Asian countries had generally not achieved this target (Figs. 1 and 2). We did not find any statistically significant association between the proportions of highly at-risk (CR/EN) mammalian species range outside PAs and the % PA extent in 2020 (β = −0.22 ± SE 0.15, t = −1.51, P = 0.14 in a Generalized Linear Model). The highest proportions of the highly at-risk (CR/EN) mammalian species range outside PAs were seen in West (βCR/EN_outsidePA = 1.77 ± SE 0.46, t = 3.86, P 10%, but Kuwait lost area. In East Asia, all countries showed at least some PA expansion (South Korea and Japan by >10%) whereas in Central Asia, almost no change was seen. It is also noteworthy that between 2010 and 2015, agricultural lands increased by 2.0% across the continent, averaging 0.51 ± SE 0.03% per year at country level, although 18 counties (45.0%) had agricultural land loss, mainly in West and Central Asia (12 out of 18 countries with agricultural land loss; Fig. 2).In our attempt to model the variation in achievement of area-based target (% PA extent), we found a single model with a ΔAICc weight of 1.0 (R2adj = 0.66; Table 1). There was no evidence to reject the null hypothesis that the model fits well (P = 0.99). This model included the predictors % agricultural extent in 2015, % PA extent in 2010, and sub-region (Table 1). Specifically, the coefficients suggested that countries with greater PA extent in 2010 and a smaller percentage of agricultural lands in 2015 were more likely to achieve higher percentage of PA extent by 2020 (βPAExtent2020 = 0.58 ± SE 0.10, t = 5.74, P  0.05).Table 2 Results of generalized linear models testing different hypotheses on the association between the percentage of ecoregions protected by the PA network in 2020 and ecological and geopolitical factors in Asian countries.Full size tableFor the coverage of highly at-risk (CR/EN) mammalian species, a single statistical model was also selected, with non-significant deviance goodness of fit (P = 0.83), which included only the % PA extent by 2020 and Region as predictors (R2adj = 0. 27). Although there was no evidence for association between the % PA extent by 2020 and the coverage of threatened species (βPAExtent2020 = −0.23 ± SE 0.15, t = −1.57, P = 0.13). However, the coverage of threatened species varied geographically, with high intercept differences for East Asia (βEastAsia = −0.23 ± SE 0.15, t = −1.57, P = 0.13), implying the largest median of range of highly at-risk (CR/EN) mammalian species outside the current network of PAs within each country.PA management effectiveness sub-targetFor the level of PAME assessment, we found that out of 22781 PAs within the 40 studied Asian countries, only 7.0% have been assessed based on PAME criteria (n = 1599), averaging 17.4% ± of PAs per country (SE = 2.5%). Israel, Japan, Lao, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar had no PA assessed based on the PAME criteria while over 1/3 of PAs in Indonesia, Cambodia, Bhutan, Jordan, Nepal, Turkey, Singapore and the UAE were PAME assessed. When modeling the level of PAME assessment, three best supported models were averaged (Table 3), with the averaged model including GDP2019, % PA extent 2020 and the Region as predictors. The averaged model coefficients would be non-significant under a hypothesis-testing approach (βGDP2019 = −0.18 ± SE 0.12, t = 1.47, P = 0.14 and βPAExtent2020 = −0.15 ± SE 0.11, t = 1.31, P = 0.19). Similarly, there was no evidence for the association between the ratio of PAs with PAME and Asian regions (P  > 0.05).Table 3 Results of generalized linear models testing different hypotheses on the association between the ratio of PAs with management effectiveness (PAME) in 2020 and ecological and geopolitical factors in Asian countries.Full size table More