Occurrence, environmental correlates, and risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Caspian sea coastal waters
Abstract
Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) poses a significant public health concern in marine environments. This study evaluated the occurrence and health risk of Vp in coastal waters of the southern Caspian Sea during summer 2022 using the WHO-recommended QMRA framework. Forty-eight seawater samples collected from two beaches in Guilan Province revealed Vp concentrations ranging from 1.9 × 10⁵ to 5.0 × 10⁵ CFU L⁻¹. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to quantify uncertainty, showing higher median probabilities of illness (Pill) at Beach B (children: 9.0 × 10⁻³; adults: 3.7–5.8 × 10⁻³) than at Beach A (children: 5.0 × 10⁻³; adults: 2.0–3.4 × 10⁻³), all below the US. EPA threshold (0.036). The estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) exceeded the WHO reference level (10⁻⁶ pppy) but remained below the US. EPA benchmark (10⁻⁴ pppy), indicating a low but non-negligible health burden, particularly among children. In addition, statistical analysis revealed positive correlations between Vp and salinity, temperature, and turbidity, and a negative correlation with pH. Sensitivity analysis revealed that Vp concentration was the dominant factor at Beach A, while ingested water volume had the greatest influence at Beach B. These results support targeted management measures to mitigate microbial risks in recreational waters.
Data availability
All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this published article.
Abbreviations
Vp
:
Vibrio parahaemolyticus
qPCR:
quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction
tlh
:
thermolabile hemolysin
QMRA:
Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment
FIB:
Fecal Indicator Bacteria
GI:
Gastrointestinal Illness
CDC:
Control Diseases Center
LOD:
Limit of Detection
DALY:
Disability-Adjusted Life Year
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Download referencesAcknowledgementsThe authors express their gratitude to the Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, for their support and cooperation in conducting this study.FundingThis research was financially supported by the Iran University of Medical Sciences under grant number 20016.Author informationAuthors and AffiliationsDepartment of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranMohammad AhmadiStudent’s Scientific Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranMohammad AhmadiDepartment of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranAli Esrafili & Roshanak Rezaei KalantaryPhysiology Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranHamidreza Pazoki-Toroudi & Fazel GorjipourDepartment of Physiology, Faculty of Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IranHamidreza Pazoki-ToroudiAuthorsMohammad AhmadiView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarAli EsrafiliView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarHamidreza Pazoki-ToroudiView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarFazel GorjipourView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarRoshanak Rezaei KalantaryView author publicationsSearch author on:PubMed Google ScholarContributionsMohammad Ahmadi: Methodology, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing, Visualization. Ali Esrafili: Methodology, Validation, Writing – review & editing, Visualization. Hamidreza Pazoki-Toroudi: Methodology, Validation. Fazel Gorjipour : Methodology, Validation, Writing – review & editing. Roshanak Rezaei Kalantary : Data curation, Supervision, Project administration, Conceptualization, Validation, Resources, Writing – review & editing.Corresponding authorCorrespondence to
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KeywordsCaspian seaCoastal waterProbability of illnessQMRA
V. parahaemolyticus. DALY More
