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Historical changes and current status of the Dongzhaigang mangrove areaBased on the literature and remote sensing data, we calculated the changes in the area of mangrove forests in Dongzhaigang since the 1950s presented in Fig. 2. In the last 60 years, the area of mangrove forests in Dongzhaigang has experienced large fluctuations mainly due to human destruction and protection activities such as mariculture reclamation, cofferdams, and restoration: it decreased from 3416 hm2 in 195617 to 3213 hm2 in 195919,29 and then decreased sharply to 1733 hm2 in 1983 and to 1537 hm2 in 198720,30. Since the establishment of the national nature reserve in 1986, the decline in area of Dongzhaigang mangrove has stopped19, which are now protected and restored owing to the law and regulations that prohibit human activities from destroying the mangrove resource. In 1988, the area was restored to 1809 hm2, and since the 1990s, it has no longer decreased, remaining constant at approximately 1711 hm2 (in the range of 1575–1812 hm2) based on the literature)18,20,31,32,33,34 (Fig. 2). The area of the Dongzhaigang mangrove forest in 2019 was estimated to be 1842 hm2 based on the latest 2 m resolution remote sensing data21. Hence, we wonder how SLR has impacted Dongzhaigang mangrove in the past decades. However, it is very difficult to analyze how SLR has historically impacted the spatial changes in the Dongzhaigang mangrove; the same can be said regarding the influence of human activities, such as destruction before mid-1980s and protection after 1990s. However, the dynamic changes among low plant edges in the intertidal zone can be used to analyze the impact of natural driving forces such as SLR35, based on the latest remote sensing data for the period of 1986–2020. Thus, we analyzed the dynamic changes in low mangrove edges (hereafter, the edges), which are mainly impacted by natural impact drivers, as shown in Fig. 3. The dynamic low mangrove edges represented by 1986, 2000, and 2020 reveal the changes in spatial distribution of Dongzhaigang mangrove. As shown in Fig. 3. Most of the edges along the coast of Dongzhaigang between 1986 and 2020 migrated landward, but not significantly. However, if we look at the changes in detail, some edges such as those in Daoxue, Sanjiang (purple circles in Figs. 3a,b–d,e–g) more clearly retreated landward compared to other places. Besides, some edges of Luodou along the northeastern coast of Dongzhaigang outside the reserve and an unnamed small island (pruple circles in Fig. 3a,h–j) also migrated landward very distinctly. On the contrary, the two smaller shore lines (black circles) in the northern part of Yangfeng and Daxue districts showed seaward expansion (Fig. 3a).Figure 2Changes in the mangrove area in Dongzhaigang from 1956 to 2019. The equation in the upper-right-hand corner of the plot refers to the fitting equation of historical changes in the total area of Dongzhaigang mangrove.Full size imageFigure 3The dynamic changes in low mangrove edges in Dongzhaigang from 1986 to 2020. Maps generated in ArcMap v10.0 (https://www.esri.com/en-us/home).Full size imageVertical rate of sediment accretion in mangrove wetlandsThe vertical rate of sediment accumulation in mangrove wetlands can reflect whether the mangroves can adjust the soil surface elevation change through sediment trapping to adapt to SLR6,11. The vertical sediment accretion rates at two sites of Dongzhaigang mangrove (i.e., Linshi and Daoxue villages in Fig. 1b) can be obtained from historical documents, which are 0.41 cm year−1 at LS and 0.64 cm year−1 at DX, respectively27,28. Since historical data may not be enough to reflect the vertical sediment accretion rates in time and space, we conducted a supplementary investigation on the sediment accumulation rates at site HG in Yanfeng and SJ site in Sanjiang farms, respectively (Fig. 1b), based on the assumption that they can reflect the sediment supplies from main reivers such as Yanfeng West River and Yanzhou River, respectively. Sediment accretion rates measured using 210Pbex specific activity in the cores from sites HG and SJ showed that 210Pbex decayed exponentially with increasing depth, and the R2 values of both cores were approximately 0.80 after curve fitting. This analysis resulted in vertical sediment accretion rates of 0.53 and 0.40 cm year−1 at HG and SJ, respectively (Fig. 4). Therefore, the locations of sediment cores at sites LS, DX, HG, and SJ can basically represent the whole Dongzhaigang mangrove forest area.Figure 4210Pbex activity profiles in selected cores such as from (a) station HG and (b) station SJ.Full size imageRate of relative sea level rise in Dongzhaigang mangroveThe global mean sea level (GMSL) is accelerating due to global warming-induced thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of land-based glaciers and ice caps into the sea36. Between 1901 and 2010, the GMSL rose by 0.19 m9. Coastal China is among the regions that experience the highest levels of SLR23. The rate of RSLR along China’s coast from 1980 to 2019 was 3.4 mm year−1, higher than the global average23. In the future, under the premise of increasing anthropogenic GHG emissions, global sea levels will rise rapidly, and it is projected that the GMSL may rise by 0.84 m (0.61–1.10 m) relative to the current levels by the end of the twenty-first century9. Based on the observations from the tide gauge stations in the Haikou area and model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection 5 (CMIP5), the rate of RSLR around Dongzhaigang reached 4.6 mm year−1 from 1980 to 2018. This rate is much higher than the global and China’s average values23,25 and will likely accelerate further in the future. Based on the results of the CMIP5 model simulations under different GHG emission scenarios24, the RSLR in coastal Haikou waters, including in Dongzhaigang, is expected to be significant by 2030, 2050, and 2100 for the low, intermediate, and very high GHG emission scenarios RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively (Table 1, Fig. 5). Under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, the sea level will rise by 65 (42–90, likely range), 75 (51–102, likely range), and 96 (70–125, likely range) cm by 2100, respectively, with the average RSLR rates of 6.84 (4.42–9.47, likely range), 7.89 (5.37–10.74, likely range), and 10.1 (7.37–13.12, likely range) mm year−1, respectively.Table 1 Estimated coastal relative sea level rise (cm) and its rate (mm year−1) in the Haikou area under different GHG emission scenarios (data from Kopp et al.24).Full size tableFigure 5Historical and future relative sea level changes along coastal Dongzhaigang, Haikou City from 1980 to 2100; the 5–95% uncertainty ranges are shaded for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, respectively.Full size imageImpact of relative sea level rise on Dongzhaigang mangroveMangroves cannot easily adapt to rising sea levels if the rate of GMSL rise exceeds 6.1 mm year−1 ( > 90% probability, very likely), whereas the survival threshold for mangroves is extremely likely to be exceeded ( > 95% probability, extremely likely) when the rate of GMSL exceeds 7.6 mm year−17. Although these values are based on global levels7, they still reflect the threat of SLR to local mangroves. In view of this, we further analyzed the potential impact and risks to Dongzhaigang mangrove from future SLR under different climate scenarios.Based on the predicted future rates of SLR under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 and on the vertical sediment accretion rates of Dongzhaigang mangrove wetlands, the mangroves are likely to be affected by rising sea levels by 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively (Table 2, Fig. 6). Under the low GHG emission scenario (RCP 2.6), the area of the Dongzhaigang mangrove forest will only experience a small reduction: 16.40% (1.20–16.95%, likely range), 302 hm2 (22–312 hm2, likely range); 16.73% (1.20–17.82%, likely range), 308 hm2 (22–328 hm2, likely range); and 17.60% (1.14–31.02%, likely range), 324 hm2 (21–571 hm2, likely range) by 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively (Table 2, Fig. 6a). This is because the vertical sediment accretion rate of Dongzhaigang mangrove will remain largely constant with increasing RSLR rate. Moreover, it should be noted that compared with 2030, the increase areas of mangroves inundation caused by SLR will be small by 2050 under three RCPs scenarios (Table 2). In contrast, under the intermediate and very high GHG emission scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5), Dongzhaigang mangrove is expected to be more significantly affected by SLR. Under RCP 4.5, 26.56% (16.19–40.74%, likely range) or 489 hm2 (298–750 hm2, likely range) of mangrove forest will likely be lost by the end of the century (Table 3, Fig. 6b). Under RCP 8.5, it is projected that 31.99% (18.14–50.73%, likely range) or 589 hm2 (334–934 hm2, likely range) of mangrove forest will be lost by 2100 (Table 2, Fig. 6c). Therefore, under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, the impact of SLR on mangrove wetlands by 2100 is much higher than that of RCP 2.6, and is likely to result in  > 26% of mangroves being lost, whereas under RCP 2.6, only 17% of mangroves are likely to be lost.Table 2 Area (hm2) and percentage of future mangrove loss in Dongzhaigang under different climate scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) (likely ranges).Full size tableFigure 6Potential loss of mangrove forests in Dongzhaigang under different climate scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Maps generated in ArcMap v10.0 (https://www.esri.com/en-us/home).Full size imageTable 3 Core stations and depths.Full size tableUnder RCP 2.6, the rate of RSLR around Dongzhaigang will reach 0.72 cm year−1 in 2030 and then decrease in 2050 and 2080 to 0.69 and 0.68 cm year−1, respectively (Table 1). However, under RCP 4.5 (8.5), by 2030, 2050, and 2100, the rate of RSLR will reach 0.72 (0.72), 0.73 (0.80), and 0.79 (10.1) cm year−1, respectively. By 2100, some mangroves in the northern part of Tashi village, the eastern part of Yanfeng, the northern part of Daoxue Village, and the northeastern part of the Sanjiang farm will likely be lost owing to SLR, and other coastal wetlands will also be impacted. Since the rate of RSLR around Dongzhaigang is higher than the global average survival threshold for mangroves (i.e., the SLR rate exceeds 7.0 mm year−1), the Dongzhaigang mangrove will be significantly affected by SLR, with a potential loss of 31–32%; however, the survival threshold will not increase (Table 2, Fig. 6). More