Ecology

Systematic reviewA systematic review (PROSPERO Registered: CRD42020165355) of all cluster-randomised control trials currently published on ITNs [including conventional nets (CTNs), pyrethroid-only long-lasting nets (pyrethroid-nets), and pyrethroid-piperonyl butoxide synergist nets (pyrethroid-PBO ITNs)], IRS or a combination of both interventions was completed to validate an established transmission model for Plasmodium falciparum malaria parameterised using entomological assessment of the interventions. Three search platforms, Web of Knowledge, PubMed and Google Scholar were used and further studies were included from three recent Cochrane reviews that have focused on individual- or cluster- randomised control trials testing either ITNs, IRS or both26,27,28. Our search criteria focused on studies within Africa, and those reporting an epidemiological outcome such as parasite prevalence or clinical incidence in a defined age-cohort. A total of 138 studies were initially identified for further assessment (Supplementary Fig. S2).Those papers identified through the systematic review went through another round of screening to ensure they fell within the scope of the work and were compatible with existing modelling parameterisation. These criteria included (i) the intervention falls within an existing World Health Organization recommendation (so trials, or arms of trials, investigating pyrethroid-pyriproxyfen ITNs29 or insecticide-treated curtains30 were excluded), (ii) the entomological impact of the product had been previously statistically characterised as part of the modelling framework (trials investigating DDT31 or propoxur IRS32 were excluded), (iii) the study was within the Africa continent, (iv) the study randomised interventions in the intervention arm across the community (i.e., interventions were not targeted to individuals or risk groups within the community)33,34,35, and (v) the study was not reporting a cluster-randomised design36. A full description of why studies and arms were excluded is provided in Data S1.1.RCTs can assess the public health impact of interventions using different epidemiological endpoints. The two most common metrics used in malaria RCTs is infection prevalence (generally assessing parasitemia in a particular age group using microscopy or rapid diagnostic tests) or clinical incidence (typically assessed using active case detection in a cohort, which had previously been cleared of infection). These metrics are both equally valid though may give different results. For example, it may be harder to change malaria parasite prevalence with a partially effective intervention in a high-transmission setting (where people have a high chance of being reinfected) compared to a low-transmission setting (where reinfection is less common). Similarly, estimates of clinical incidence will vary depending on the study design and regularity of follow-up. For example, there are practical constraints on the number of times people within an active cohort can be tested. In areas of higher transmission incidence estimates will be greater the more regularly the cohort is tested as people infected multiple times between screening will be less common. This information on the regularity of screening is not always reported making it difficult to adjust models accordingly. It is also important to account for cluster-level effects when interpreting trial results, and this cluster-level data is also mostly unavailable37. The systematic review identified more studies that evaluated interventions in their ability to change malaria prevalence, with 13 out of 14 RCTs showing how the intervention changed parasite prevalence between the study arms compared with 8 RCTs, which reported changes in clinical incidence. Therefore, we focus on prevalence as our metric for epidemiology impact in this framework though note this should be repeated with clinical incidence estimates should more data become available. The final dataset had 73 cross-sectional surveys of prevalence in a defined age-cohort, 37 trial arms from 13 different RCTs.Characterising the entomological impact of ITNs and IRSExperimental hut trials (EHTs) measure the outcome of wild, free-flying, mosquito attempting to feed on volunteers resting indoors in the presence of an indoor intervention38. This includes (i) whether or not a mosquito is deterred away from a hut, which has the intervention (calculated by the number of mosquitoes found in the control hut relative to the intervention hut), (ii) whether the mosquito exits without feeding (repellence, measured as the percentage of alive unfed mosquitoes inside the intervention hut), (iii) the percentage entering the hut that successfully blood-feed, or (iv) the percentage of mosquitoes which die. Intervention efficacy is typically summarised for the intervention huts relative to a no-intervention (or untreated net) control huts, be it induced mortality (the increase in the percentage of mosquitoes dying over a 24-h period) or blood-feeding inhibition (the reduction in the percentage of mosquitoes receiving a blood-meal).EHTs use specially built structures that follow a defined floor-plan and set of specifications. There are multiple designs of experimental hut as they were originally intended to replicate the predominant type of housing found in the local area. We recently conducted a systematic review to capture the average behaviours of mosquitoes across different hut designs19. The two most used huts in Africa are the West African design and East Africa hut39 (a third hut—the Ifakara hut—is not considered here39). The meta-analyses showed that the associations describing the probable outcome of a mosquito feeding attempt (deterrence, repellence, successful feeding, or death) varies according to hut design. It is unclear that hut design best predicts epidemiological impact.Meta-analyses of EHT data have shown how the entomological efficacy of pyrethroid-nets has diminished over time, probably due to the rise of pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes16,19,40, though there may be some manufacturing changes41. EHTs are conducted throughout Africa but are limited to the sites where the huts are built and cannot directly inform estimates of ITN efficacy outside of these areas. The most widely used quantitative measure for approximating the phenotypic level of resistance in the local mosquito population is the discriminating-dose bioassay. There are two main types of discriminating assays, the WHO susceptibility bioassay and the CDC bottle bioassay42,43. Both these assays measure the proportion of local Anopheline mosquitoes that survive 24-h following exposure to a discriminatory dose of pyrethroid for 60 min. Results from these bioassays are highly variable44 though collating data from multiple tests has shown clear trends over time45. The relationship between the level of resistance in the local mosquito population (as measured in a discriminating-dose bioassay) and the mortality induced by ITNs in EHTs can be used to extrapolate the results from hut trials to other geographical regions16.Modelling rationaleThe two main metrics recorded in EHTs do not capture all entomological impacts of ITNs and IRS. Though useful, induced mortality does not consider the sub-lethal impact of interventions whilst blood-feeding inhibition fails to differentiate between preventing blood-meals and killing mosquitoes, which are likely to have very different epidemiological impacts. Killing mosquitoes reduces the force of infection for users and non-users (through a community effect) so the overall effectiveness of treated nets and IRS will vary according to how abundantly and regularly they are used by the local human population. In addition, the impact of ITNs and IRS is likely to vary between sites because of factors such as the disease endemicity itself driven by societal behaviours, seasonality of transmission and the use of other malaria control interventions, amongst others. This means that raw EHT data is unlikely to directly correlate with the results of RCTs.EHTs are widely used to parameterise malaria transmission dynamics mathematical models46,47,48. These models rigorously quantify the outcome of each mosquito feeding attempt and, by making a limited number of assumptions, can estimate an overall entomological efficacy by combining the impact of the level of personal protection elicited by the intervention to the user and the indirect community effect provided to both users and non-users. Transmission dynamics mathematical models are designed to mechanistically capture the underlying processes governing malaria transmission and so can account for known non-linear processes such as the acquisition of human immunity49,50,51. This enables these models to translate the entomological efficacy quantified in an EHT into predictions of epidemiological impact given the characteristics of the site. Unfortunately, to date, there are no published EHTs that have been conducted alongside RCT evaluation of ITNs or IRS products (and therefore evaluated against the same mosquito population). To overcome this issue we parameterise the models using a meta-analyses of 136 EHT results16,19 collated from across Africa, which quantifies how mosquito deterrence, repellence, successful feeding, or death varies with time since the intervention is deployed and according to the level of pyrethroid resistance in the local mosquito population (as measured by the discriminating-dose bioassay). This approach has been able to recreate the epidemiological impact observed in RCTs evaluating a small number of ITNs15 or IRS products9, but this is the first attempt at using this method to validate the modelling framework against all trials evaluating nets and IRS.There is considerable uncertainty in how the entomological efficacy of treated ITNs varies with the level of resistance in the local population. This is a key relationship determining how field discriminating-dose bioassay data should be interpreted yet it is highly uncertain, with a recent meta-analyses indicating that it is equally well explained by two different functional forms (the logistic or log-logistic functions)19. Similarly, it is unclear whether the epidemiological impact of ITNs or IRS is best captured by all experimental hut data combined (Supplementary Fig. S14C, D)19 or if the meta-analyses should be restricted to just West or East African hut design data alone. To rigorously differentiate between these options six different models are run for each trial arm (n = 37), varying both the relationship between discriminating-dose bioassay and EHT mosquito mortality (either the logistic or log-logistic function) and the data used in the EHT meta-analyses (all data, East or West African design huts). The ability of these models to recreate the observed results is statistically compared and the most accurate selected for the main analyses.Transmission dynamics modelThe malaria transmission model that we use here incorporates the transmission dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum between human hosts and Anopheles mosquito vectors. The differential equations and associated assumptions of the original transmission model52 have been comprehensively reported in the Supplementary Material from Griffin et al.53, Walker et al.54 and Winskill et al.55. The model has been extensively fitted to data on the relationship between vector density, entomological inoculation rate, parasite prevalence, uncomplicated malaria, severe disease and death49,52,53,56,57. Model equations and assumptions are provided in the Supplementary Methods and https://github.com/jamiegriffin/Malaria_simulation. Unless stated (Supplementary Data S1), default parameters are taken from these papers.Data requirements for model simulationThe transmission model can be parameterised to describe the specific ecology of each RCT location using data on the mosquito bionomics, seasonal transmission patterns, historic use of various interventions—principally insecticide-treated ITNs or the residual spraying of insecticides (IRS)—and baseline endemicity. These data are recorded within the research articles reporting the trials at the trial arm level (Supplementary Data S1.2 notes where data are available and which resources were used; Supplementary Data S1.3 lists the key data identified for model parameterisation) and Supplementary Fig. S1 provides a diagram of how they are combined to inform the model.Briefly, the Anopheles mosquito species composition at baseline is used to determine the proportion of mosquitoes with bespoke behaviours that could alter exposure risk to mosquito bites and thus transmission risk. Species-specific mosquito behaviours are parameterised from systematic reviews on anthropophagy, using the human blood index47,58,59, and the proportion of mosquito bites that are received indoors or in bed because this impacts the efficacy estimate for indoor interventions60.Other information that are specific to each trial also help interpret our success at predicting, or not, the observed results of an intervention tested in an RCT; the diagnostic used to measure prevalence or incidence is useful because different tests have different sensitivities61, which can be included in the model framework54. The baseline burden of infection is particularly important to enable the model to be calibrated to the endemicity of the study site by varying the number of mosquitoes per person (the human:mosquito ratio). This is determined by a cross-sectional estimate of parasite prevalence in a defined age-cohort at a particular time of year of the baseline survey.For any location, the current level of endemicity is determined by the historic interventions already operating at the site. Therefore, wherever possible, ITN use and the historic use of sprayed insecticides, as well as the estimated proportion of clinical cases that are drug-treated, are included as baseline parameters.In addition to the waning potency of insecticide active ingredient outlined above, the impact of nets can also wane because of changes in the proportion of people using them. This can be driven by the quality of the product, seasonal patterns in humidity or other social patterns of use62,63,64. Where data are available, this waning adherence to net use is captured by fitting an exponential decay function to the proportion of people using nets measured at cross-sectional surveys throughout the trials:$${{{{{{{mathrm{U}}}}}}{{{{{mathrm{sage}}}}}}}}_{i}={e}^{-{sigma }_{i}t}$$
(1)
where σ is a parameter determining how rapidly people stop using nets in an intervention arm i of the trial and t is time in years. Parameter estimates for pyrethroid-only and pyrethroid-PBO ITNs are provided for different levels of resistance for the 6 potential methods of associating bioassays and using data (Supplementary Data S1.4).The IRS product used is equally important as the entomological impact of different products vary, particularly for pyrethroid-based IRS in the presence of resistant mosquitoes9. Supplementary Data S1.5 show the parameter estimates for products included in the analysis.The seasonality of transmission has been defined previously for each RCT site (at the administration subunit 1 level) using normalised rainfall patterns obtained from the US Climate Prediction Center65. The daily time series are aggregated to 64 points per year for years 2002 to 2009. A Fourier function is fitted to these data to capture seasonality by reconstructing annual rainfall patterns54,66. We deliberately do not match rainfall data from the respective RCTs, which would likely improve the model estimates because we are ultimately testing whether this framework has predictive power across future years or alternative ecologies, where we will not know how rainfall will exactly impact mosquito densities and hence malaria transmission.Statistical analysisThe mean simulated malaria prevalence (matching the age-cohort of the trial) is recorded for all RCT surveys timepoints. This equates to a total of 73 cross-sectional surveys post-implementation. The process was repeated using the 6 different entomological parameter sets (the relationship between bioassay and hut trial mortality and the hut design used to summarise treated net entomological impact). An illustration of the different models and their fit to data is demonstrated in Supplementary Fig. S17 for a recent study trialling pyrethroid-only nets, pyrethroid-PBO ITNs alone or in combination with a long-lasting IRS product in Tanzania5. The difference between the observed and predicted prevalence at each timepoint is shown for all RCTs in Supplementary Fig. S18. A simple linear regression is conducted comparing observed and predicted results are summarised in Supplementary Table 3. Let Xi denote the malaria prevalence predicted by the model at timepoint i while Yi is the observed prevalence. The regression,$${Y}_{i}=m{X}_{i}$$
(2)
for i = 1,…,c + n, where m is the gradient between the observed and predicted result (consistent across studies), c is the number of post-intervention datapoints in the control arms and n is the number of post-intervention datapoints in the intervention arms (c + n = 73 for analyses of all RCTs). Better fitting models have a higher adjusted R2 (adjusted R2 values of one indicate the model is perfectly predicting the trial result) whilst the gradient of the regression m indicates any bias (with value of one reporting the model can predict prevalence equally well across the endemicity range). Results are presented for all ITNs and IRS RCTs and separately for RCTs of different types of (pyrethroid-only ITNs, pyrethroid-PBO ITNs and IRS, Supplementary Table 3). The log-logistic model (results 4–6 in Supplementary Table 3) describing the relationship between bioassay and hut trial mortality consistently fits the data better, with models fit using either all hut trial data or East African design huts having a similar accuracy (adjusted R2 = 0.95). This parameter combination also had the least bias, with the best fit regression line being closer to one.The average efficacy of the different ITNs and IRS combinations was calculated by comparing malaria prevalence for the different trial arms to the respective control arms at matched timepoints following the introduction of interventions. Let ({E}_{{jk}}^{l}) be the relative reduction in the malaria prevalence between the control (k = 0) to intervention (k = 1) arms at matched timepoint j in the same trial for either the predicted (l = Xjk) or observed (l = Yjk) malaria prevalence,$${E}_{j}^{X}=({{X}_{j0}-{X}}_{j1})/{X}_{j0},{{{{{rm{ and }}}}}},{E}_{j}^{Y}=({Y}_{j0}-{Y}_{j1})/{Y}_{j0}$$
(3)
for j = 1,…,n. The goodness of fit for the efficacy estimates is calculated in a similar manner to the prevalence estimates by substituting in ({E}_{j}^{X}) and ({E}_{j}^{Y}) into Xi and Yi in E2, respectively. Models are on average able to estimate the efficacy of the interventions at different timepoints (Supplementary Table 3). Estimates for some timepoints diverge substantially (for example, the study testing conventional nets in the Gambia relative to untreated nets67 measured negative effect in one setting; the treated net arm having more infected children whereas the model predicted a 12.5% reduction due to the CTN (with parameters derived from all EHT data and the log-logistic function, 4 in Supplementary Table 3), Supplementary Data S1.8), but in most studies the trial average (averaged across all timepoints) is remarkably consistent. Accuracy is lower than estimates of absolute prevalence, in part because the difference between the percentage of people slide positive in low-endemicity settings may be relatively modest in absolute terms but might represent a substantial difference as a percentage. It is also important to note that when the models do systematically miss some timepoints, this is consistent across the control and treated arms. For example, in the Protopopoff et al. study in Tanzania5 (Figs. S14 and S17) efficacy is over-estimated in all arms 18 months after the start of the trial, but the relative difference between the arms (in terms of ordering, and the efficacy estimate) is relatively consistent. This indicates that unmeasured factors, such as differences in the timing and duration of the rainy season, may have occurred across all trial arms. As previously, the log-logistic functional form describing the relationship between bioassay and hut trial mortality consistently fits the data better (Supplementary Table 3, options 4 to 6). The models fit describing the entomological efficacy of any net using all EHT data predicts efficacy data better with East African design hut data providing similar accuracy (adjusted R2 = 0.64 vs. 0.62, respectively). Following this we select the log-logistic functional form to describe the relationship between mortality in the discriminating-dose bioassay and EHT and characterise the entomological efficacy of treated ITNs using data from both East and West African design huts for the main analyses (Fig. 2B, C).The ability of the best-performing model (Supplementary Table 3, column 4: log-logistic function and all EHT data) to capture the relative drop in prevalence over time compared to the baseline (pre-intervention) estimate is shown in Supplementary Fig. S19. This value is denoted as ({dot{E}}_{t}^{l}) and is calculated as,$${dot{E}}_{t}^{X}=({X}_{0}-{X}_{t}),{{{{{rm{and}}}}}},{dot{E}}_{t}^{Y}=({X}_{0}-{Y}_{t})$$
(4)
where ({X}_{0}) is the malaria prevalence at baseline (prior to intervention deployment with the exception of Chaccour et al.68) observed from the RCT and the model is calibrated to this endemicity. Xt is then the subsequent cross-sectional survey observed for each study, and RCTs have different numbers of surveys ranging from 1 to 4 in the published literature. The corresponding model estimate is represented by Yt. Estimates are calculated for all post-intervention timepoints in both control and intervention arms and are shown in Fig. S19A. The difference between ({dot{E}}_{t}^{X}) and ({dot{E}}_{t}^{Y}) can be used to explore how closely the model is able to predict this absolute difference observed in the trials (a value of 0 indicates exact match, high predictive ability). The model overestimates the performance of IRS only, deployed in 1995 using the pyrethroid IRS ICON CS 10% (Syngenta), but otherwise there is no difference in the models’ ability to estimate different ITN interventions or combination net and IRS interventions, be it the absence of an intervention, conventional dipped-nets, pyrethroid-only nets, pyrethroid-PBO ITNs with or without IRS (Fig. S19B). All code is available69.Reporting summaryFurther information on research design is available in the Nature Research Reporting Summary linked to this article. More

Sampling of coastal communitiesHere, we integrated data from five different projects that had surveyed coastal communities across five countries47,48,49,50. Between 2009 and 2015, we conducted socioeconomic surveys in 72 sites from Indonesia (n = 25), Madagascar (n = 6), Papua New Guinea (n = 10), the Philippines (n = 25), and Tanzania (Zanzibar) (n = 6). Site selection was for broadly similar purposes- to evaluate the effects of various coastal resource management initiatives (collaborative management, integrated conservation and development projects, recreational fishing projects) on people’s livelihoods in rural and peri-urban villages. Within each project, sites were purposively selected to be representative of the broad range of socioeconomic conditions (e.g., population size, levels of development, integration to markets) experienced within the region. We did not survey strictly urban locations (i.e., major cities). Because our sampling was not strictly random, care should be taken when attempting to make inferences beyond our specific study sites.We surveyed between 13 and 150 households per site, depending on the population of the communities and the available time to conduct interviews per site. All projects employed a comparable sampling design: households were either systematically (e.g., every third house), randomly sampled, or in the case of three villages, every household was surveyed (a census) (see Supplementary Data file). Respondents were generally the household head, but could have been other household members if the household head was not available during the study period (i.e. was away). In the Philippines, sampling protocol meant that each village had an even number of male and female respondents. Respondents gave verbal consent to be interviewed.The following standard methodology was employed to assess material style of life, a metric of material assets-based wealth48,51. Interviewers recorded the presence or absence of 16 material items in the household (e.g., electricity, type of walls, type of ceiling, type of floor). We used a Principal Component Analysis on these items and kept the first axis (which explained 34.2% of the variance) as a material wealth score. Thus, each community received a mean material style of life score, based on the degree to which surveyed households had these material items, which we then scaled from 0 to 1. We also conducted an exploratory analysis of how material style of life has changed in two sites in Papua New Guinea (Muluk and Ahus villages) over fifteen and sixteen-year time span across four and five-time periods (2001, 2009, 2012, 2016, and 2002, 2009, 2012, 2016, 2018), respectively, that have been surveyed since 2001/200252. These surveys were semi-panel data (i.e. the community was surveyed repeatedly, but we did not track individuals over each sampling interval) and sometimes occurred in different seasons. For illustrative purposes, we plotted how these villages changed over time along the first two principal components.SensitivityWe asked each respondent to list all livelihood activities that bring in food or income to the household and rank them in order of importance. Occupations were grouped into the following categories: farming, cash crop, fishing, mariculture, gleaning, fish trading, salaried employment, informal, tourism, and other. We considered fishing, mariculture, gleaning, fish trading together as the ‘fisheries’ sector, farming and cash crop as the ‘agriculture’ sector and all other categories into an ‘off-sector’.We then developed three distinct metrics of sensitivity based on the level of dependence on agriculture, fisheries, and both sectors together. Each metric incorporates the proportion of households engaged in a given sector (e.g., fisheries), whether these households also engage in occupations outside of this sector (agriculture and salaried/formal employment; referred to as ‘linkages’ between sectors), and the directionality of these linkages (e.g., whether respondents ranked fisheries as more important than other agriculture and salaried/formal employment) (Eqs. 1–3)$${{{{{{rm{S}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{A}}}}}}}=,frac{{{{{{rm{A}}}}}}}{{{{{{rm{A}}}}}}+{{{{{rm{NA}}}}}}},times ,frac{{{{{{rm{N}}}}}}}{{{{{{rm{A}}}}}}+{{{{{rm{NA}}}}}}},times ,frac{left(frac{{{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{a}}}}}}}}{2}right),+,1}{{{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{a}}}}}}}+,{{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{na}}}}}}}+1}$$
(1)
$${{{{{{rm{S}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{F}}}}}}}=,frac{{{{{{rm{F}}}}}}}{{{{{{rm{F}}}}}}+{{{{{rm{NF}}}}}}},times ,frac{{{{{{rm{N}}}}}}}{{{{{{rm{F}}}}}}+{{{{{rm{NF}}}}}}},times ,frac{left(frac{{{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{f}}}}}}}}{2}right),+,1}{{{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{f}}}}}}}+,{{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{nf}}}}}}}+1}$$
(2)
$${{{{{{rm{S}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{AF}}}}}}}=,frac{{{{{{rm{AF}}}}}}}{{{{{{rm{AF}}}}}}+{{{{{rm{NAF}}}}}}},times ,frac{{{{{{rm{N}}}}}}}{{{{{{rm{AF}}}}}}+{{{{{rm{NAF}}}}}}},times ,frac{left(frac{{{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{af}}}}}}}}{2}right),+,1}{{{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{af}}}}}}}+,{{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{naf}}}}}}}+1}$$
(3)
where ({{{{{{rm{S}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{A}}}}}}}), ({{{{{{rm{S}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{F}}}}}}}) and ({{{{{{rm{S}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{AF}}}}}}}) are a community’s sensitivity in the context of agriculture, fisheries and both sectors, respectively. A, F and AF are the number of households relying on agriculture-related occupations within that community, fishery-related and agriculture- and fisheries-related occupations within the community, respectively. NA, NF and NAF are the number of households relying on non-agriculture-related, non-fisheries-related, and non-agriculture-or-fisheries-related occupations within the community, respectively. N is the number of households within the community. ({{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{a}}}}}}}), ({{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{f}}}}}}}) and ({{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{af}}}}}}}) are the number of times agriculture-related, fisheries-related and agriculture-and-fisheries-related occupations were ranked higher than their counterpart, respectively. ({{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{na}}}}}}}), ({{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{nf}}}}}}}) and ({{{{{{rm{r}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{naf}}}}}}}) are the number of times non-agriculture, non-fisheries, and non-agriculture-and-fisheries-related occupations were ranked higher than their counterparts. As with the material style of life, we also conducted an exploratory analysis of how joint agriculture-fisheries sensitivity has changed over time in a subset of sites (Muluk and Ahus villages in Papua New Guinea) that have been sampled since 2001/200252. Although our survey methodology has the potential for bias (e.g. people might provide different rankings based on the season, or there might be gendered differences in how people rank the importance of different occupations53), our time-series analysis suggest that seasonal and potential respondent variation do not dramatically alter our community-scale sensitivity metric.ExposureTo evaluate the exposure of communities to the impact of future climates on their agriculture and fisheries sectors, we used projections of production potential from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) Fast Track phase 3 experiment dataset of global simulations. Production potential of agriculture and fisheries for each of the 72 community sites and 4746 randomly selected sites from our study countries with coastal populations >25 people/km2 were projected to the mid-century (2046–2056) under two emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5) and compared with values from a reference historical period (1983–2013).For fisheries exposure (EF), we considered relative change in simulated total consumer biomass (all modelled vertebrates and invertebrates with a trophic level >1). For each site, the twenty nearest ocean grid cells were determined using the Haversine formula (Supplementary Fig. 5). We selected twenty grid cells after a sensitivity analysis to determine changes in model agreement based on different numbers of cells used (1, 3, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100; Supplementary Figs. 6–7), which we balanced off with the degree to which larger numbers of cells would reduce the inter-site variability (Supplementary Fig. 8). We also report 25th and 75th percentiles for the change in marine animal biomass across the model ensemble. Projections of the change in total consumer biomass for the 72 sites were extracted from simulations conducted by the Fisheries and marine ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP3,54). FishMIP simulations were conducted under historical, SSP1-2.6 (low emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions) scenarios forced by two Earth System Models from the most recent generation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project (CMIP6);55 GFDL-ESM456 and IPSL-CM6A-LR57. The historical scenario spanned 1950–2014, and the SSP scenarios spanned 2015–2100. Nine FishMIP models provided simulations: APECOSM58,59, BOATS60,61, DBEM2,62, DBPM63, EcoOcean64,65, EcoTroph66,67, FEISTY68, Macroecological69, and ZooMSS11. Simulations using only IPSL-CM6A-LR were available for APECOSM and DBPM, while the remaining 7 FishMIP models used both Earth System Model forcings. This resulted in 16 potential model runs for our examination of model agreement, albeit with some of these runs being the same model forced with two different ESMs. Thus, the range of model agreement could range from 8 (half model runs indicating one direction of change, and half indicating the other) to 16 (all models agree in direction of change). Model outputs were saved with a standardised 1° spatial grid, at either a monthly or annual temporal resolution.For agriculture exposure (EA), we used crop model projections from the Global Gridded Crop model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 314, which also represents the agriculture sector in ISIMIP. We used a window of 11×11 cells centred on the site and removed non-land cells (Supplementary Fig. 5). The crop models use climate inputs from 5 CMIP6 ESMs (GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, and UKESM1-0-LL), downscaled and bias-adjusted by ISIMIP and use the same simulation time periods. We considered relative yield change in three rain-fed and locally relevant crops: rice, maize, and cassava, using outputs from 4 global crop models (EPIC-IIASA, LPJmL, pDSSAT, and PEPIC), run at 0.5° resolution. These 4 models with 5 forcings generate 20 potential model runs for our examination of model agreement. Yield simulations for cassava were only available from the LPJmL crop model. All crop model simulations assumed no adaptation in growing season and fertilizer input remained at current levels. Details on model inputs, climate data, and simulation protocol are provided in ref. 14. At each site, and for each crop, we calculated the average change (%) between projected vs. historical yield within 11×11 cell window. We then averaged changes in rice, maize and cassava to obtain a single metric of agriculture exposure (EA).We also obtained a composite metric of exposure (EAF) by calculating each community’s average change in both agriculture and fisheries:$${{{{{{rm{E}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{AF}}}}}}}=,frac{{{{{{{rm{E}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{A}}}}}}}+,{{{{{{rm{E}}}}}}}_{{{{{{rm{F}}}}}}}}{2}$$
(4)
Potential ImpactWe calculated relative potential impact as the Euclidian distance from the origin (0) of sensitivity and exposure.Sensitivity testTo determine whether our sites displayed a particular exposure bias, we compared the distributions of our sites and 4746 sites that were randomly selected from 47,460 grid cells within 1 km of the coast of the 5 countries we studied which had population densities >25 people/km2, based on the SEDAC gridded populating density of the world dataset (https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/gpw-v4-population-density-rev11/data-download).We used Cohen’s D to determine the size of the difference between our sites and the randomly selected sites.Validating ensemble modelsWe attempted a two-stage validation of the ensemble model projections. First, we reviewed the literature on downscaling of ensemble models to examine whether downscaling validation had been done for the ecoregions containing our study sites.While no fisheries ensemble model downscaling had been done specific to our study regions, most of the models of the ensemble have been independently evaluated against separate datasets aggregated at scales down to Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) or Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) (see11). For example, the DBEM was created with the objective of understanding the effects of climate change on exploited marine fish and invertebrate species2,70. This model roughly predicts species’ habitat suitability; and simulates spatial population dynamics of fish stocks to output biomass and maximum catch potential (MCP), a proxy of maximum sustainable yield2,62,71. Compared with spatially-explicit catch data from the Sea Around Us Project (SAUP; www.seaaroundus.org)70 there were strong similarities in the responses to warming extremes for several EEZs in our current paper (Indonesia and Philippines) and weaker for the EEZs of Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, and Tanzania. At the LME level, DBEM MCP simulations explained about 79% of the variation in the SAUP catch data across LMEs72. The four LMEs analyzed in this paper (Agulhas Current; Bay of Bengal; Indonesian Sea; and Sulu-Celebes Sea) fall within the 95% confidence interval of the linear regression relationship62. Another example, BOATS, is a dynamic biomass size-spectrum model parameterised to reproduce historical peak catch at the LME scale and observed catch to biomass ratios estimated from the RAM legacy stock assessment database (in 8 LMEs with sufficient data). It explained about 59% of the variability of SAUP peak catch observation at the LME level with the Agulhas Current, Bay of Bengal, and Indonesian Sea catches reproduced within +/-50% of observations61. The EcoOcean model validation found that all four LMEs included in this study fit very close to the 1:1 line for overserved and predicted catches in 200064,65. DBPM, FEISTY, and APECOSM have also been independently validated by comparing observed and predicted catches. While the models of this ensemble have used different climate forcings when evaluated independently, when taken together the ensemble multi-model mean reproduces global historical trends in relative biomass, that are consistent with the long term trends and year-on-year variation in relative biomass change (R2 of 0.96) and maximum yield estimated from stock assessment models (R2 of 0.44) with and without fishing respectively11.Crop yield estimates simulated by GGCMI crop models have been evaluated against FAOSTAT national yield statistics14,73,74. These studies show that the models, and especially the multi-model mean, capture large parts of the observed inter-annual yield variability across most main producer countries, even though some important management factors that affect observed yield variability (e.g., changes in planting dates, harvest dates, cultivar choices, etc.) are not considered in the models. While GCM-based crop model results are difficult to validate against observations, Jägermeyr et al14. show that the CMIP6-based crop model ensemble reproduces the variability of observed yield anomalies much better than CMIP5-based GGCMI simulations. In an earlier crop model ensemble of GGCMI, Müller et al.74 show that most crop models and the ensemble mean are capable of reproducing the weather-induced yield variability in countries with intensely managed agriculture. In countries where management introduces strong variability to observed data, which cannot be considered by models for lack of management data time series, the weather-induced signal is often low75, but crop models can reproduce large shares of the weather-induced variability, building trust in their capacity to project climate change impacts74.We then attempted to validate the models in our study regions. For the crop models, we examined production-weighted agricultural projections weighted by current yields/production area (Supplementary Fig. 1). We used an observational yield map (SPAM2005) and multiplied it with fractional yield time series simulated by the models to calculate changes in crop production over time, which integrates results in line with observational spatial patterns. The weighted estimates were not significantly different to the unweighted ones (t = 0.17, df = 5, p = 0.87). For the fisheries models, our study regions were data-poor and lacked adequate stock assessment data to extend the observed global agreement of the sensitivity of fish biomass to climate during our reference period (1983-2013). Instead, we provide the degree of model run agreement about the direction of change in the ensemble models to ensure transparency about the uncertainty in this downscaled application.AnalysesTo account for the fact that communities were from five different countries we used linear mixed-effects models (with country as a random effect) for all analyses. All averages reported (i.e. exposure, sensitivity, and model agreement) are estimates from these models. In both our comparison of fisheries and agriculture exposure and test of differences between production-weighted and unweighted agriculture exposure we wanted to maintain the paired nature of the data while also accounting for country. To accomplish this we used the differences between the exposure metrics as the response variable (e.g. fisheries exposure minus agriculture exposure), testing whether these differences are different from zero. We also used linear mixed-effects models to quantify relationships between the material style of life and potential impacts under different mitigation scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and 8.5), estimating standard errors from 1000 bootstrap replications. To further explore whether these relationships between the material style of life and potential impacts were driven by exposure or sensitivity, we conducted an additional analysis to quantify relationships between the material style of life and: 1) joint fisheries and agricultural sensitivity; 2) joint fisheries and agricultural exposure under different mitigation scenarios. We present both the conditional R2 (i.e., variance explained by both fixed and random effects) and the marginal R2 (i.e., variance explained by only the fixed effects) to help readers compare among the material style of life relationships.Reporting summaryFurther information on research design is available in the Nature Research Reporting Summary linked to this article. More

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Sample collection and hydrographySampling was conducted aboard the University of Victoria’s MSV John Strickland either weekly, biweekly or monthly between 11 March 2010 and 15 November 2017 in Saanich Inlet at 48.59°N, 123.50°W (Fig. 1). To standardize measurements and due to biological significance, seawater was collected from the euphotic zone. Sampling depths corresponded to approximately 100, 50, 15, and 1% of the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) at the surface (Io). These “light” depths were either determined using a CTD-mounted PAR sensor or a Secchi disk. CTD profiles were performed prior to each seawater cast to measure depth, temperature and conductivity of the water column, and PAR, fluorescence, and dissolved oxygen (when available).Seawater from each light depth was collected using Niskin or GO-FLO bottles on either a rosette sampler or an oceanographic wire. When possible, individual samples were collected directly from the Niskin or GO-FLO bottles. When time was not sufficient to allow direct sampling, bulk samples of seawater from each depth were collected into acid-washed polyethylene carboys, kept cold in the dark, and homogenized before sub-sampling for the individual measurements.Dissolved nutrientsFor the measurements of nitrite (NO2−), nitrate and nitrite (NO3− + NO2−), phosphate (PO43−) and Si(OH)4, seawater samples from each light depth were syringe-filtered through a combusted 0.7 µm (nominal porosity) glass fibre filter into acid-washed 30-mL polypropylene bottles and immediately frozen. All nutrient samples were stored at −20 °C until analysis. Concentrations of NO2−, NO3− + NO2−, PO43−, and Si(OH)4 were determined using an Astoria Nutrient Autoanalyzer (Astoria-Pacific, OR, USA) following the methodology of Barwell-Clarke and Whitney22. During 2014 and 2015, samples for the measurement of Si(OH)4 were collected separately from those for the other nutrients, filtered with a 0.6 µm polycarbonate membrane filter and stored at 4 °C. During this period, Si(OH)4 concentrations were determined manually using the molybdate blue colorimetric methodology23. Replicate (2 or 3) nutrient samples were taken at each depth; average data are presented in the published dataset and the figures (Fig. 2).Fig. 2Dissolved macronutrient concentrations in the euphotic zone of Saanich Inlet from March 11, 2010 to November 15, 2017. Left panels show depth-integrated concentrations (black bars on top) and time-series profiles (filled contour/scatter plots on bottom) for (A) nitrate plus nitrite (NO3− + NO2−), (B) phosphate (PO43−) and (C) silicic acid (Si(OH)4). In the time-series profiles, 2012–2013 data are not interpolated due to single-depth sampling. Grey shaded regions in top panels indicate the phytoplankton growing seasons considered for this study (March 1st – October 30th). Right panels show monthly-averaged depth profiles for the entire 8-year period, illustrating euphotic zone seasonality for each nutrient. The color scale bars on the far right apply to both the time-series vertical profiles and the 8-year seasonal plots. Sampling depths are indicated by round symbols. The year labels are positioned under the tick marks corresponding to January.Full size imageSuspended particulate matterTotal chlorophyll-aChlorophyll-a (Chl-a) was used as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass (Fig. 3A). For total Chl-a analysis, seawater samples (0.25–1 L) were gently vacuum filtered onto 0.7 µm (nominal porosity) glass fiber filters, which were then stored at −20 °C until analysis. Chl-a concentrations were determined using the acetone extraction and acidification method24,25. Acidification of samples decreased the likelihood of overestimation of Chl-a concentrations due to the presence of chlorophyll degradation products26. Filters were submerged in 10 mL of 90% acetone, sonicated for 10 minutes in an ice bath, and left to extract at −20 °C for 22 h. Following the extraction period, samples were allowed to equilibrate to room temperature (~2 h). Fluorescence of the acetone solution containing the extracted Chl-a was measured before and after acidification with 1.2 N hydrochloric acid using a Turner 10-AU fluorometer. The final concentrations of total Chl-a were calculated from measurements made before (Fo) and after (Fa) acidification using Eq. (1)25. The coefficient (τ) of Eq. (1), adapted from Strickland and Parsons25, was derived from a calibration of the Turner 10-AU fluorometer with known pure chlorophyll standards (Table 2).$${rm{C}}{rm{h}}{rm{l}} mbox{-} {rm{a}}(mu g,{L}^{-1})=frac{tau }{tau -1}ast ({rm{F}}{rm{o}}-{rm{F}}{rm{a}})ast 0.814ast left(frac{{rm{V}}{rm{o}}{rm{l}}.{rm{A}}{rm{c}}{rm{e}}{rm{t}}{rm{o}}{rm{n}}{rm{e}},{rm{e}}{rm{x}}{rm{t}}{rm{r}}{rm{a}}{rm{c}}{rm{t}}{rm{e}}{rm{d}}}{{rm{V}}{rm{o}}{rm{l}}.{rm{S}}{rm{e}}{rm{a}}{rm{w}}{rm{a}}{rm{t}}{rm{e}}{rm{r}},{rm{f}}{rm{i}}{rm{l}}{rm{t}}{rm{e}}{rm{r}}{rm{e}}{rm{d}}}right)$$
(1)
Fig. 3Biological particulate concentrations in the euphotic zone of Saanich Inlet from March 11, 2010 – November 15, 2017. Left panels show time-series profiles (filled contour/scatter plots) of (A) total chlorophyll-a (Total Chl-a), (B) particulate carbon (PC), (C) particulate nitrogen (PN), and (D) particulate biogenic silica (bSiO2). The 2012–2013 data are not interpolated due to single-depth sampling. In A, the bar plot in the top panel shows percent contribution of different size fractions to total Chl-a. In (B–D), black bars in top panels show depth-integrated concentrations. Grey shaded regions in bar plots indicate phytoplankton growing seasons considered for this study (March 1st – October 30th). Right panels show monthly-averaged depth profiles for the entire 8-year period, illustrating euphotic zone seasonality for each particulate. The color scale bars on the far right apply to both the time-series vertical profiles and the 8-year seasonal plots. Sampling depths are indicated by round symbols. The year labels are positioned under the tick marks corresponding to January.Full size imageSize fractionated chlorophyll-aTo determine the percent contributions of “pico” (0.7–2 µm), “small nano” (2–5 µm), “large nano” (5–20 µm) and “micro” ( >20 µm) phytoplankton to total Chl-a, seawater samples (0.25–1 L) separate from those used for total Chl-a) were consecutively filtered through 20, 5 and 2 µm polycarbonate membrane filters and 0.7 µm (nominal porosity) glass fiber filters. Between 2013 and 2017, the “pico” and “small nano” size classes were collected as one fraction (0.7–5 µm). Analysis of Chl-a concentrations for each size fraction followed the same procedure outlined for total Chl-a.Particulate carbon and nitrogenParticulate C and N measurements were obtained from seawater samples incubated for carbon (ρC) and nitrate uptake (ρNO3) rates (see section on “Uptake rates of carbon and nitrate” for methodology) (Fig. 3B,C). PC and PN measurements presented in this dataset were taken at the end of ρC and ρNO3 incubations; however, original (‘ambient’) values can be back calculated by subtracting the amount of C and N taken up during the incubation period from the final PC and PN values. The differences between after-incubation PC and PN data and back-calculated ambient values were not significantly different than the measurement error.Particulate biogenic silicaParticulate biogenic silica was used as a proxy for siliceous phytoplankton biomass (Fig. 3D). Seawater samples (0.5–1 L) from each depth were gently vacuum filtered through 0.6 µm polycarbonate membrane filters. Filters were folded and placed in polypropylene centrifuge tubes, dried for 48 h at 60 °C, and then stored in a desiccator at room temperature until analysis. Filters were digested with 4 mL of 0.2 M NaOH for 30–45 min in a water bath at 95 °C27. After digestion, samples were neutralized with 0.1 N HCl and cooled rapidly in an ice bath. Samples were centrifuged to separate out the undissolved lithogenic silica, and colorimetric analysis was performed on the supernatant. The transmittance of the samples, standards, and reverse-order reagent blanks were read at 820 nm using a Beckman DU 530 ultraviolet-visible (UV/Vis) spectrophotometer27,28.Uptake rates of carbon and nitrateSeawater samples (~0.5–1 L) were gently collected into clear polycarbonate bottles. One additional sample was collected from the 100% light depth, into a dark polycarbonate bottle, which did not allow light penetration. After the addition of the isotopic tracers (see below), bottles were placed into an acrylic incubator with constant seawater flow to maintain surface seawater temperature. Three acrylic tubes wrapped in colored and neutral density photo-film (to obtain 50, 15, and 1% of surface PAR) were used to incubate sample bottles under the same in-situ light conditions from which samples were collected. Samples from the 100% light level were placed inside the same acrylic incubator, but outside of the film-covered tubes. A LI-COR® LI-190 Quantum sensor was installed next to the incubator and continuously recorded incoming PAR for the entire incubation period. During sampling in 2010 and 2011, all experiments were performed using a shipboard incubator. For sampling from 2012 onwards, all experiments were done using an incubator on land (University of Victoria Aquatic Facility), which was connected to a seawater system maintained at local surface seawater temperature (approximately 9–12 °C depending on the time of year).Rates of C (ρC) and NO3 (ρNO3) uptake were determined using a stable isotope tracer-technique29,30 (Fig. 4). A single seawater sample from each light depth received a dual spike, with NaH13CO3 (99% 13C purity, Cambridge Isotope Laboratories) for the determination of ρC and Na15NO3 (98 + % 15N purity, Cambridge Isotopes Laboratories) for the determination of ρNO3. Isotope additions were made at approximately 10% of ambient dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and NO3− concentrations.Fig. 4Carbon and nitrate uptake rates in the euphotic zone of Saanich Inlet from March 11, 2010 – November 15, 2017. Left panels show depth-integrated rates (black-bars on top) and time-series profiles (filled contour/scatter plots below) of (A) carbon (ρC) and (B) nitrate (ρNO3) uptake rates. In the time-series profiles, 2012–2013 data are not interpolated due to single-depth sampling. Grey shaded regions in depth-integrated plots indicate phytoplankton growing seasons for this study (March 1st – October 30th). Right panels show monthly-averaged depth profiles for the entire 8-year period, illustrating euphotic zone seasonality for carbon and nitrate uptake. The color scale bars on the far right apply to both the total time-series vertical profiles and the 8-year seasonal plots. Sampling depths are indicated by round symbols. The year labels are positioned under the tick marks corresponding to January.Full size imageSpiked seawater samples were incubated for 24 h, except from 2010 to 2013 when the incubation period was 4 to 6 hr. After incubation, the entire sample was gently vacuum filtered onto a combusted 0.7 µm (nominal porosity) glass fibre filter. Filters were dried for 48 h at 60 °C and kept in a desiccator at room temperature until analysis. Filters were packed into pellets and sent to the Stable Isotope Facility at the University of California (UC) Davis for analysis of 13C and 15N enrichment, and total C and N content by continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry and elemental analysis, respectively. For these measurements, UC Davis uses either an Elementar Vario EL Cube or Micro Cube elemental analyzer (Elementar Analysensysteme GmbH, Hanau, Germany) interfaced to either a PDZ Europa 20–20 isotope ratio mass spectrometer (Sercon Ltd., Cheshire, UK) or an Isoprime VisION IRMS (Elementar UK Ltd, Cheadle, UK).Carbon and NO3− uptake rates were calculated using Eq. 3 of Hama et al.29, and Eq. 3 and 6 of Dugdale and Wilkerson30, respectively.For samples incubated for less than 24 h, the daily C or NO3− uptake rates (ρX) were calculated using a PAR extrapolation method shown in Eq. (2):$$rho X(mu mol,{L}^{-1}da{y}^{-1})=left(rho X(mu mol,{L}^{-1}h{r}^{-1})divleft(frac{PAR,during,incubation}{Total,Daily,PAR}right)right)ast 24$$
(2)
Additionally, to account for NO3− uptake occurring under no light, ρNO3− was measured in dark bottles and this rate was added to the ρNO3− of each sample incubated for less than 24 h. The ρNO3− DARK was calculated following Eq. (3):$$rho N{O}_{3}DARK(mu mol,{L}^{-1}da{y}^{-1})=left(rho N{O}_{3}DARK(mu mol,{L}^{-1}h{r}^{-1})divleft(frac{Total,Daily,PAR-PAR,during,incubation}{Total,Daily,PAR}right)right)ast 24$$
(3)
PAR data used in Eqs. (2) and (3) came from the LI-COR® LI-190 Quantum sensor that was mounted beside the incubator. The seawater DIC value for each sample was calculated using a regression equation relating water density to DIC for Saanich Inlet31. Ambient NO3− concentrations were measured as described above. More

Monitoring sites and speciesThe monitoring survey was conducted at five sites in Fukushima Prefecture (sites 1–4 and A1) and at one site in Ibaraki Prefecture (site 5), Japan (Fig. 1). Sites 1, 2, and A1 are located in Kawauchi Village, site 3 in Otama Village, site 4 in Tadami Town, and site 5 in Ishioka City. Monitoring at sites 1–5 was started in 2011 or 2012, and site A1 was additionally monitored since 2017. The tree species, age, mean diameter at breast height, initial deposition density of 137Cs, and sampling year of each sample at each site are listed in Table 1. The dominant tree species in the contaminated area, namely, Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica [L.f.] D.Don), Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa [Siebold et Zucc.] Endl.), konara oak (Quercus serrata Murray), and Japanese red pine (Pinus densiflora Siebold et Zucc.) were selected for monitoring. Japanese chestnut (Castanea crenata Siebold et Zucc.) was supplementally added in 2017. The cedar, cypress, and pine are evergreen coniferous species, and the oak and chestnut are deciduous broad-leaved species. Sites 1 and 3 each have three plots, and each plot contains a different monitoring species. Site A1 has one plot containing two different monitoring species, and the remaining sites each have one plot with one monitoring species, giving ten plots in total.Figure 1Locations of the monitoring sites and initial deposition densities of 137Cs (decay-corrected to July 2, 2011) following the Fukushima nuclear accident in Fukushima and Ibaraki Prefectures. Open circles indicate the monitoring sites and the cross mark indicates the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant. Data on the deposition density were provided by MEXT19,20 and refined by Kato et al.21. The map was created using R (version 4.1.0)22 with ggplot2 (version 3.3.5)23 and sf (version 1.0–0)24 packages.Full size imageTable 1 Description of the sampled trees and monitoring sites.Full size tableSample collection and preparationBulk sampling of bark and wood disks was conducted by felling three trees per year at all sites during 2011–20168,25 and at sites 3–5 and A1 during 2017–2020. Partial sampling from six trees per year was conducted at sites 1 and 2 during 2017–2020 (from seven trees at site 2 in 2017) to sustain the monitoring trees. All the samples were obtained from the stems around breast height. During the partial sampling, bark pieces sized approximately 3 cm × 3 cm (axial length × tangential length) were collected from four directions of the tree stem using a chisel, and 12-mm-diameter wood cores were collected from two directions of the tree stem using an automatic increment borer (Smartborer, Seiwa Works, Tsukuba, Japan) equipped with a borer bit (10–101-1046, Haglöf Sweden, Långsele, Sweden). Such partial sampling increases the observational errors in the bark and wood 137Cs concentrations in individual trees26. To mitigate this error and maintain an accurate mean value of the 137Cs concentration, we increased the number of sampled trees from three to six. The sampling was conducted mainly in July–September of each year; the exceptions were site-5 samples in 2011 and 2012, which were collected irregularly during January–February of the following year. The collected bark pieces were separated into outer and inner barks, and the wood disks and cores were split into sapwood and heartwood. The outer and inner bark samples during 2012–2016 were obtained by partial sampling of barks sized approximately 10 cm × 10 cm from 2–3 directions on 2–3 trees per year.The bulk samples of bark, sapwood, and heartwood were air-dried and then chipped into flakes using a cutting mill with a 6-mm mesh sieve (UPC-140, HORAI, Higashiosaka, Japan). The pieces of the outer and inner bark were chipped into approximately 5 mm × 5 mm pieces using pruning shears, and the cores of the sapwood and heartwood were chipped into semicircles of thickness 1–2 mm. Each sample was packed into a container for radioactivity measurements and its mass was measured after oven-drying at 75 °C for at least 48 h. Multiplying this mass by the conversion factor (0.98 for bark and 0.99 for wood)8 yielded the dry mass at 105 °C.Radioactivity measurementsThe radioactivity of 137Cs in the samples was determined by γ-ray spectrometry with a high-purity Ge semiconductor detector (GEM20, GEM40, or GWL-120, ORTEC, Oak Ridge, TN). For measurements, the bulk and partial samples were placed into Marinelli containers (2.0 L or 0.7 L) and cylindrical containers (100 mL or 5 mL), respectively. The peak efficiencies of the Marinelli containers, the 100-mL container, and the 5-mL container were calibrated using standard sources of MX033MR, MX033U8PP (Japan Radioisotope Association, Tokyo, Japan), and EG-ML (Eckert & Ziegler Isotope Products, Valencia, CA), respectively. For the measurement of the 5-mL container, a well-type Ge detector (GWL-120) was used under the empirical assumption that the difference in γ-ray self-absorption between the standard source and the samples is negligible27. The measurement was continued until the counting error became less than 5% (higher counting errors were allowed for small or weakly radioactive samples). The activity concentration of 137Cs in the bark (whole) collected by partial sampling was calculated as the mass-weighted mean of the concentrations in the outer and inner barks; meanwhile, the concentration in the wood (whole) was calculated as the cross-sectional-area-weighted mean of sapwood and heartwood concentrations. The activity concentrations were decay-corrected to September 1, 2020, to exclude the decrease due to the radioactive decay.Trend analysesThe yearly representative values (true states) of 137Cs activity concentration in each stem part in each plot were estimated using a DLM, a state-space model in which the noise follows a normal distribution and the relationship between variables is linear. One basic DLM is the local linear trend model defined by the following equations:$$Y_{t} = mu _{t} + varepsilon _{t} ,quad quad quad varepsilon _{t} sim Normal left( {0,sigma _{varepsilon }^{2} } right)$$
(1)
$$mu_{t} = mu_{t – 1} + beta_{t – 1} + eta_{t} ,quad quad quad eta_{t} sim Normal left( {0,sigma_{eta }^{2} } right)$$
(2)
$$beta_{t} = beta_{t – 1} + zeta_{t} ,quad quad quad zeta_{t} sim Normal left( {0,sigma_{zeta }^{2} } right)$$
(3)
where Yt, μt, and βt are the observation values, level (true state), and slope, respectively, and εt, ηt, and ζt denote their corresponding noises. The subscript t is the time index. The noises εt, ηt, and ζt follow normal distributions with a mean of 0 and variances of ({sigma }_{varepsilon }^{2}), ({sigma }_{eta }^{2}), and ({sigma }_{zeta }^{2}), respectively. To detect relatively long-term trends, we employed the smooth local linear trend model28 (also called the smooth trend model, integrated random walk model, or second-order trend model), which is obtained by considering that μt and βt are driven by the same noise. The trend changes are assumed to be smoother in this model than in the local linear trend model28,29. Combining Eqs. (2) and (3), μt in the smooth local linear trend model is finally obtained as$$mu_{t} = 2mu_{t – 1} – mu_{t – 2} + eta_{t} ,quad quad quad eta_{t} sim Normal left( {0,sigma_{eta }^{2} } right)$$
(4)
The parameters μt, ({sigma }_{eta }^{2}), and ({sigma }_{varepsilon }^{2}) of each stem part in each plot were determined by Bayesian estimation with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The Bayesian estimation was performed in R (version 4.1.0)22 with the rstan package (version 2.21.2)30. Uninformative prior distributions were used for μ1, μ2, ({sigma }_{eta }^{2}), and ({sigma }_{varepsilon }^{2}). The log-transformed values of the 137Cs activity concentration (decay-corrected to September 1, 2020) were given as Yt (the observed values of multiple individuals in each year were passed via the segment function of Stan). MCMC sampling was conducted for four chains of 50,000 iterations (the first 25,000 were discarded as warmup), obtaining 100,000 MCMC samples for each parameter. The MCMC was judged to have converged when the maximum value of Rhat was less than 1.05 and the divergent transitions after warmup were fewer than 1,000 (i.e., less than 1% of the MCMC sample size). On the datasets of the outer and inner barks from site-3 oaks and all stem parts from site-A1 pines and chestnuts, the MCMC converged poorly owing to the small number of monitoring years. Thus, the temporal trends in these datasets were not analyzed (the observational data at site A1 are shown in Supplementary Fig. S1 and Table S1).To detect decadal trends rather than yearly variations, we determined the temporal trends in the true state (μ) by setting 2–4 delimiting years and examining whether μ varied significantly from one delimiting year to the next. As the delimiting years, we selected the initial and final years of monitoring and the years in which the median µ was highest (µ-max year) and lowest (µ-min year). When the µ-max year and/or the µ-min year coincided with the initial year and/or final year of monitoring, the number of delimiting years reduced from four to two or three. The trend in µ between two delimiting years was determined to be increasing and decreasing when the 95% credible interval of µ2nd delimiting year − µ1st delimiting year (obtained from the MCMC samples) was higher and lower than zero, respectively. A flat trend (no significant variation) was detected when the 95% credible interval included zero. If the 3rd and 4th delimiting years existed, the trends between the 2nd and 3rd delimiting years and between the 3rd and 4th delimiting years were determined in the same manner.The 137Cs CRs of outer bark/inner bark, heartwood/sapwood, and inner bark/sapwood were also subjected to the above trend analyses. On datasets with less than five years of monitoring, the MCMC did not converge so the trend analysis was not attempted. More

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An experiment in secondary forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo finds that calcium, an overlooked soil nutrient, is scarcer than phosphorus, and represents a potentially greater limitation on tropical forest growth.Ecology can reveal distributional patterns and dynamics in nature. One approach used is studying the elemental composition of plants, which has been linked to ecological processes such as growth, diversity or water use efficiency. More recently, elemental composition has been detected as a cofactor in governing the carbon sink capacity of plants, and therefore climate change mitigation1,2,3. This discovery has added an extra layer of urgency to the field, which now aims to better understand and predict global change. The study of nitrogen and/or phosphorus has until now received most of the attention of plant ecologists: nitrogen is the most abundant element in dry leaves after hydrogen and carbon, forms the main structure of proteins and is strongly linked to photosynthesis4. Phosphorus represents around one-tenth of nitrogen abundance in leaves and is key in energy storage and nucleic acids. However, although these represent only two of the many chemical elements that are in flux throughout ecosystems, whether others may have a dominant role in ecosystem dynamics is an open question. Writing in Nature Ecology & Evolution, Bauters et al.5 share some evidence to motivate broadening out from the dominant focus on nitrogen and phosphorus in terrestrial ecology, by revealing a crucial limiting role of calcium in the dynamics of tropical forest succession. More