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Key delimitation trapping survey performance factorsTrap attractivenessThe performance of the current Medfly design was unexpectedly inferior to that of the leek moth even with a more vagile target insect, 2.8 times greater trap density in the core, and a grid size over three times larger. Despite all those factors, p(capture) for the leek moth grid with 1/λ = 20 m was 15 percentage points greater than that for Medfly at 30 days duration. Thus, trap attractiveness was the key determinant for delimiting survey performance, as it was for detection13.One straightforward way to improve p(capture) and the accuracy of boundary setting, while also cutting costs, would be to develop more attractive traps. Poorly attractive traps include food-based attractants48 and traps based solely on visual stimuli36. But developing better traps is difficult. Pheromone-based attractants generally perform best49, but these are unavailable for many insects. For instance, scientists have searched for decades for effective pheromones for Anastrepha suspensa (Loew) and A. ludens (Loew) without success50. Common issues include the complexity of components, costs of synthesis, and chemical stability.Trap densitiesAll else being equal, increasing the trap density will generally improve p(capture) for any survey grid, and intuitively this can help compensate for using less attractive traps. However, the impact of increasing density is limited when attractiveness is low13,47, and large surveys or grids with many traps can become prohibitively expensive51. The Medfly grid designers likely understood that the available trap and lure was not highly attractive, and used higher densities in inner bands to try to reach some desired (non-quantitative) survey performance level. By contrast, the designers of the leek moth grid used a (constant) density three times smaller, likely because the trap and lure were known to be relatively strong. Here, for both species, marginal ROI decreased as densities increased (Tables 2, 3). Hence, increasing densities has limited benefit, but may be useful when better lures are unavailable13.In that context, the use of variable densities in the Medfly grid is understandable. At its standard size, the survey grid would require 8,100 traps if the core trap density were constant (Table 1). The designers likely intuited that lower densities could be used in outer bands because captures there were less likely. However, doing so reduces the likelihood of detection in outer bands and could increase the possibility of undetected egress, especially with longer survey durations. As far as we know, natural egress has not been raised as a concern following the numerous Medfly quarantines that have used this survey grid over the years, in Southern California in particular52.Generally, however, we think the variable Medfly grid densities run counter to delimitation goals. Greater core and Band 2 densities have proportionally more impact on p(capture), but only a few detections in the core are necessary to confirm the presence of the population (Goal 1), and inner area detections probably contribute little to boundary setting (see below). Therefore, lower or intermediate densities (at most) may be optimal for the core when considering ROI. For the outer bands, increasing densities might improve boundary setting (Goal 2) and help mitigate potential egress, but the sizes of those bands already limit cost efficiency (Table 2), making greater densities less advisable. Our simulation results can help elucidate how to balance these interests to achieve delimitation goals while minimizing costs47.Grid size considerationsThe simulation results indicated that the standard survey sizes for these two pests were excessive. We have verified that empirically for Medfly using trapping detections data53. A 14.5-km grid has been widely used for many other insects in the CDFA (2013) guidelines10, such as Mexfly and OFF, and the same analysis indicated that those are also oversized for use in short-term delimitation surveys53. From the same analysis, the predicted survey radius for leek moth, with D = 500 m2 per day, would be 2,382 m, or a diameter of nearly 4.8 km, which matches the results here. Similarly, Dominiak and Fanson45 analyzed trapping data for Qfly and found that the recommended quarantine area distance of 15 km could be reduced to 3 to 4 km.Grids with radii larger than 4.8-km only seem necessary for highly vagile insects, those with D ≥ 50,000 m2 per day47. This should not be surprising. Small insect populations are unlikely to move very far31,54, especially if hosts are available20,39,55. The (proposed) short duration of a delimitation survey would also limit dispersal potential (see below). Many delimiting survey plans may be oversized, because they were developed before much dispersal research had been done37, thus uncertainty was high. Our dispersal distance analysis included species with a wide range of dispersal abilities, so it can be used generally to choose smaller survey grid radii53.Reducing grid sizes down to about 4.8-km diameters may have little impact on p(capture), since detections in bands outside that distance contributed little to overall performance. The cores of both the leek moth and Medfly grids accounted for 86 percent or more of overall p(capture). While core area detections will confirm the presence of the population, they are less useful for defining spatial extent. The furthest detections from the presumed source are usually used to delimit the incursion46,56 (although in our experience formal boundary setting exercises seem rare). Delimiting surveys may often yield few captures anyway, because adventive populations can be very small and subject to high mortality31. Because size reductions eliminate traps in proportionally larger outer areas, the impact on survey costs is substantial. Removing just the outermost bands of each grid would directly reduce costs by $11,200 for leek moth (400 traps) and by $7,488 for Medfly (288 traps; Table 1).Another reason for the large size of the standard Medfly grid may be that it was designed for monitoring and management in addition to delimitation57. Medfly quarantines end after at least three generations without a detection, so the surveys may last for months. The grid size was reportedly originally determined by multiplying the estimated dispersal distance by three (PPQ, personal communication), to account for uncertainty. This implies that the estimated distance was about 2,400 m per 30 days. Thus, the design may not have been built for the 30-d duration used here, but our recommended design is valid if a shorter delimitation activity without further monitoring is appropriate.Although it seemed too large for leek moth, an 8-km grid for delimitation could be appropriate for some other moths. For example, the delimiting survey plans for Spodoptera littoralis (Boisduval) and S. exempta Walker use this size9. S. littoralis is described as dispersing “many miles”, and S. exempta can travel hundreds of miles9, which clearly exceeds the described dispersal ability of leek moth. On the other hand, the survey plan for summer fruit tortrix moth (Adoxophyes orana Fischer von Röeslerstamm) also specifies an 8-km grid for delimitation but contains little information on dispersal, suggesting only that most movement is local8. Like leek moth, a 4.8-km grid for that species seems likely to be more appropriate.Limiting egress potential is probably the main consideration when setting survey size, but uncertainty about the source population location may also be a factor. Survey grids placed over the earliest insect detection may sometimes be off center from the location of the source population54. However, so far as we know for our agency, most adventive populations have been localized, based on post-discovery detections (PPQ, personal communication). Likewise, we have found53 and other researchers have found that dispersal distances for different species in outbreaks and mark-recapture studies are often less than 1 km58,59,60. That may often be the case for detection networks of traps (e.g., for high risk fruit flies), which increase the likelihood of capture before the population has had much time to grow and disperse. Here, we focused explicitly on localized populations, but allowed for uncertainty in the simulations by varying outbreak locations over one mile in the central part of the grid. If the outbreak population is very large and has extensively spread out (e.g., spotted lanternfly, Lycorma delicatula (White) in 201461), delimitation will not be localized, but “area-wide”2. The results here do not apply to area-wide outbreaks, and we are currently studying how to effectively delimit them.Optimizing delimitation surveysMany trapping survey designs in use were based not on “hard” science but on local experience62. Scientists have recognized the need for more cost-effective surveillance strategies63,64. Quantitatively assessing p(capture) in different designs for the same target pest allows us to determine grid sizes and densities that lower costs while maintaining performance. Results here demonstrated that the sizes and densities of these two survey grids could be optimized to save up to $20,244 per survey for the leek moth and $38,168 per survey for the Medfly. In practical terms, that means more than five leek moth surveys could be run for the cost of one standard design survey. Additionally, over seven Medfly delimitation surveys could be funded by the budget of one standard plan. The magnitudes of reduction seen here may be typical, since about 90 percent of the costs in trapping surveys are for transportation and maintenance related to traps65.Quantifying survey performance was not possible until very recently, so it has been little discussed in the literature5,66, and no standard thresholds exist. We think 0.5 may be a reasonable minimum threshold for the choice of p(capture), to try to ensure that population detection is “more likely than not”. Designs that aim to maximize p(capture) could be realistic with high attractiveness traps, but those designs seem very likely to have lower ROIs (e.g., Table 2). Even for the most serious insect pests, we think targeting near-perfect population detection during delimitation is likely not justified. Designs achieving p(capture) from 0.6 to 0.75 could be highly effective in terms of both costs and performance.Another potential area of improvement is grid shape. Circular grids perform as well as square grids but use fewer traps and less service area to achieve equivalent p(capture)47. Moreover, detections in the corners of a square grid are evidence that insects could have traveled beyond the square along the axes, resulting in uncertain boundary setting. Most published survey grids are square10,46, but many field managers tend to use approximately circular trapping grids in the field (PPQ, personal communication). The conversion to a circular grid with a radius of half the square side length reduces the area and number of traps by around 21 percent47. Our findings were consistent with that value.This new quantification ability also indicates that some delimiting survey designs in the U.S.A. may not be performing as well as expected47. For instance, the delimiting survey design for Mexfly uses approximately 31 traps per km2 in the core of a 14.5 km square grid11, but the traps are only weakly attractive (1/λ ≈ 5 m). In this scenario, p(capture) was only around 0.23 with a 30-d survey duration47. A much greater density ( > 80 traps per km2) could be used in the core to achieve p(capture) ≥ 0.5, but this may not be feasible depending on the survey budget.Technical and modeling considerationsExamining diffusion-based movement for these two insects in TrapGrid can give insight into why simulations indicated that smaller grids may be adequate47. The value of σ for Medfly after 30 days is only about 1,550 m. In a normal distribution, σ = 1,550 m gives a 95th percentile distance of 2,550 m, which is similar to the estimated distance above of 2,400 m. Over 90 days, σ = 2,700 m for Medfly, which gives a 95th percentile distance of 4,441 m, still much shorter than the grid radius of 7,250 m. A 95th percentile of 7,250 m requires σ ≈ 4,408 m, which equals t = 253 days. In addition, the maximum total distance (up to 39 days after detection) we observed in trapping detections data for Medfly in Florida was about 4,800 m53.The same calculations for leek moth give σ ≈ 490 m for 30 days, with a 95th percentile distance of only 806 m. That is half the length of the recommended shortened radius above of 2.4 km, and nearly five times shorter than the radius of the standard 8-km grid. A 95th percentile of 4,000 m requires σ = 2,432 m, which implies t = 740 days, which is about two years. Therefore, the leek moth grid is arguably even more oversized than the Medfly grid.The default capture probability calculation in the current version (Ver. 2019-12-11) of TrapGrid is not sensitive to population size32 and does not consider the effects of ambient factors (e.g., wind speed and direction, rainfall, temperature). Many other factors can also impact trapping survey outcomes, such as topography of the environment, availability of host plants, seasonality of pest, and population dynamics. These factors are not considered in the current version of TrapGrid. More

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High diet overlap is assumed to cause competition between the three dominant pelagic planktivorous mesopredators in the Baltic Sea, sprat, herring, and stickleback11,24,25. Despite this assumption, stickleback populations have increased dramatically over the past decades, which raises the question of whether and how resources are partitioned26. While previous studies of fish diet overlap have mainly relied on microscopic identification of gut content, we implemented a DNA metabarcoding approach targeting two different gene regions, the 18S rRNA gene (18S) and the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I gene (COI) to reveal the taxonomic diversity of prey, and a qPCR step to quantify rotifers that are at times abundant in the Baltic Sea. Our study highlights consistency between methods, with DNA metabarcoding resolving the plankton-fish link at the highest taxonomic resolution. Our results suggest a unique niche of stickleback that may enable high population growth in the open water, despite high competition between mesopredators, although this finding needs to be confirmed at larger scale. More than half of the DNA found in herring and sprat stomach contents was assigned to Pseudocalanus, supporting previous observations of high diet overlap between the two clupeids11,12. On the other hand, the diet of stickleback differed substantially from the two clupeids, with rotifers appearing as main prey DNA in spring. The high rotifer biomass in the environment and lack of competition from other predators indicate that this novel niche utilization may support the drastic increase of pelagic stickleback in the Baltic Sea.We find that copepods dominated the gut content of the two clupeids sprat and herring. Pseudocalanus and Temora occupied most of the sequence reads of the clupeid metabarcoding, two species that are often reported as preferred prey in previous studies11,12. Despite high contributions of these two copepods, Pseudocalanus was more than four times as abundant as Temora in clupeid gut contents. A strong preference for this copepod with marine origin can further confirm the increased competition between the clupeids, as Pseudocalanus has decreased due to decreased salinity12 and shares a similar vertical distribution as clupeid during daytime27. Our study using metabarcoding further reveals a large relative quantity (11%) of the ctenophore Mertensia in the gut samples of both clupeids. Similar, Clarke et al.28 reported an important contribution of gelatinous zooplankton to upper trophic levels in the Southern Ocean. Despite high abundances of ctenophores in the Baltic Sea and their assumed importance in marine food webs19, they are not reported as food for planktivorous fish. A possible explanation is the difficulty observing them microscopically, as their digestion rate is faster than crustaceans29, and no hard parts remain in the digestive system. Further, COI detected the presence of cladocerans, which was confirmed by the microscopic survey, but underrepresented with 18S that strongly amplify copepods20. Interestingly, more than twice annelid COI reads, including the benthic macroinvertebrates Bylgides and Marenzellaria, were associated to stickleback (15%) and herring (8%) than to sprat (4%), highlighting their ability to migrate vertically. These interactions suggest that together stickleback and herring contribute to benthic-pelagic coupling when oxygen is not restricting vertical migration in the southern Baltic Sea30.Sprat and herring share a similar feeding niche, which may explain previously observed declines in body mass and stomach fullness, and supports the theory of competition between the two species31. In contrast, stickleback revealed little diet overlap with the other mesopredators. The low relative abundances of Pseudocalanus (1–8%) in metabarcoding analyses indicates that the density-dependent competition may not limit the population growth of stickleback. The copepods that were shared in the diet of stickleback, sprat, and herring were Temora, Acartia, and Centropages have increased over the last decades, as opposed to Pseudocalanus32. Our results show that stickleback are able to feed on a broader spectrum of prey and highlight that stickleback utilizes the rotifer Synchaeta baltica as prey, which is an important component of the plankton community composition in the Baltic Sea18,20. Due to the difference of prey size, we can expect an overrepresentation of copepod to rotifer sequences compared with microscopic count data. High predation rate on S. baltica is supported by both the qPCR assay as well as microscopic counts, although only the eggshells were visible but not the soft-bodied rotifer. Despite the considerably lower carbon content per S. baltica (ca. 6 µg C ind−1) compared to copepods (ca. 20 µg C ind−1)33, the high number of rotifers likely act as a major food source for stickleback. These results propose that stickleback, due to their opportunistic feeding behaviour34 and smaller size35, have a distinct feeding niche from sprat and herring in the open water, as they feed on a smaller size class of zooplankton compared to the clupeids. Thus, we cannot assume the same process of competition between clupeids and stickleback.Rotifers can at times be very abundant in the Baltic Sea, reaching densities up to 25,000 ind m−3, but their natural predators are poorly studied. An increasing trend in biomass of the two main rotifer genera (Synchaeta and Keratella) was observed since the 1990s36. In a recent study, we showed that rotifers might occupy a unique feeding niche, as direct grazers of dinoflagellate spring bloom, as well as in the recycling of organic matter in summer20. The low level of predation on rotifers by clupeid adults ( More

Ecosystem services are the contributions of nature to human well-being — for example, the provision of raw materials, carbon sequestration and recreation. Although relatively new, the study of these essential services has developed rapidly and is now included in many global policies and assessments. However, mapping and modelling these services is restricted by the availability of data that can account for the multidimensional traits of ecosystem services and model coupled social–ecological systems. Traditional datasets, including surveys, interviews, and focus groups, are often not viable on the scale necessary for many ecosystem service assessments. More

We surveyed three islands of Lake Chany: Uzkoredkii (54° 58′ 15′′ N, 77°27′04′′ E), Reden’kii (54° 56′ 05′′ N, 77° 22′ 27′′ 52 E), Korablik (54° 59′ 31′′ N, 77° 40′ 38′′ E). The studied intertidal habitats are rarely reached by humans.Gull nests were counted in colonies by regular surveys over eight years (1993, 1994, 1996–1998, 2001–2003) on the islands of Lake Chany. Colonies were visited daily or sometimes every other day. To minimize the disturbance caused by the investigation, the time spent working, within view of the gulls was restricted to a maximum of forty minutes per study plots. We noted nest content at every visit for the presence of eggs or chicks. In total, there were 1 164 nests under observation. Nests contained 1 (n = 140), 2 (n = 518), 3 (n = 504) or 4 (n = 2) eggs. Modal clutch size of the great black-headed gull is two or three eggs, varying seasonally. The length and width of the eggs were measured using Vernier calipers (division accuracy 0,1 mm) and numbered with a waterproof marker. Egg volumes were estimated using Hoyt’s equation: Volume = 0.51 * Length * Width * Width/100013. We determined the volume of 2117 great black-headed gull eggs.As the laying of eggs has already started by the first visit to the colony, the date of the beginning of egg laying was calculated by subtracting the average length of the incubation period of great black-headed gulls (27 days) from the hatching date of first chick in the nest (n = 559 nests). If the hatching date was not known, the clutch initiation date was determined by subtracting the number of days of incubation from the date that the nest was first discovered (n = 469 nests). The stage of incubation was estimated from the change in position of an incubated egg placed in water14,15. The technique’s accuracy varied throughout incubation and mean prediction error fall between 0–4 days. On average, egg flotation estimated an embryo’s developmental age to within 1.9 ± 1.6 days (mean ± 1 SD)16. Only 47 nests were found during egg laying. Great black-headed gulls usually laid eggs at intervals of two days. Incubation started as soon as the first egg was laid, so eggs hatched asynchronously, one or two days apart.Whenever possible, we determined the within-clutch laying sequence of eggs (1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th). A complete laying sequence was established by observation in 47 cases. In about 48% of clutches the position in laying sequence was established on the basis of the sequence of hatching. In other cases, if we could distinguish within-clutch distinct flotation levels of eggs, we numbered eggs according to the stage of incubation. Sometimes this technique for distinguishing egg laying order were used in other seabirds17,18.We recorded the pipping date (i.e. appearance of star-like bursts) and the actual hatching date of the individual eggs. Wet chicks were registered as hatchlings of that day; dry chicks were registered as 1 day old. Chicks older than two days left the nest and moved to a location nearby. Newly hatched gull chicks were captured by hand at nests, ringed, and measured. We determined wing, tarsus, and head length using a ruler with zero-stop and vernier calipers and body weight measured using Pesola spring balances for 747 chicks of great black-headed gulls, and 457 of them hatched from eggs that were measured. More

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